USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY Prices ke Sath Trading Strategy

Hamara guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ke live imtihaan par markooz hai. Price Action method aur "bearish engulfing" pattern ke mutabiq jo natija umeed thi, woh poori tarah se mumkin nahi lag rahi. Is model mein proportion kaafi ahem hai. Humain ek bearish Doji ka signal mila hai, jo maine chart mein highlight kiya. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke dono apne targets aglay haftay poora karen ge. Pehli surat mein, maine 101 points ki girawat ki tawaqo ki thi baghair spread ke, lekin ab bhi mujhe lagta hai ke yeh trading instrument aur neeche ja sakta hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ke mutabiq, main expect kar raha hoon ke price 100th level 142.04 se neeche break karega, aur yeh scenario step by step karke 138.1 pe 141.39 aur 161.7 pe 140.82 tak poora ho sakta hai. Agar channel ki upper boundary ki taraf growth hoti hai, toh yeh mufeed hoga, lekin main apni position tab adjust karoon ga jab upar ki taraf ek tez move ho jaye.

143.56 pe price test tab hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se neeche ki taraf move kar raha tha, jo selling ke liye ek sahi entry point ko confirm karta hai, jo hum recent months mein downward trend ke tor par dekh rahay hain. Natija yeh hua ke pair mein 60 se zyada pips ki girawat hui. Rebound par 142.90 ke price par purchases ne expected result nahi diya. Kal, Japan ke GDP growth ke kamzor numbers aur bank lending ke volume mein kami ke hawalay se yen ki position par asar hua, jis se pair mein thodi si recovery hui. Magar din ke dosray hissay mein pressure wapas aa gaya, jo yeh darsha raha tha ke kuch log dollar ko zyada behtareen aur munasib prices pe sell karna chahtay hain. Aaj ka report, jo Japan mein money supply aggregate ki change ka tha, pair ko horizontal channel mein rakha hua hai, jis se is baat ka imkaan barh gaya hai ke pair medium-term downward trend mein aur neeche ja sakta hai.

Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada reliance karoon ga scenario No. 1 aur 2 ke implementation par.

**Buy Signal Scenario No. 1**: Main USD/JPY ko aaj tab khareedne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price 143.45 ke entry point par pohnche ga (green line chart pe), aur mera target 144.01 (chart pe thick green line) ho ga. 144.01 par main apne long positions ko exit karoon ga aur opposite direction mein shorts open karoon ga (expect kar raha hoon ke level se 30-35 pips ka move opposite direction mein hoga). Aaj pair mein ek correction ke tor par izafa dekha ja sakta hai. Ahm baat! Buy karne se pehle yeh zaroor dekhein ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar ho aur apni ascent shuru kar raha ho.

Hamara aj ka focus USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ki live analysis par hai. Main ne support level 141.79 se bullish rebound ka andaza lagaya tha, jo local trend line (green, sloping line) tak tha, aur yeh sab "Hammer" reversal pattern ke formation par mabni tha. Is setup ne ek bullish correction ko suggest kiya, isliye ek long position lena munasib tha. Halanki, pehle price upar gai, magar phir sell-off ne 141.79 ka support tor dia aur price ko lower support level 140.17 tak le gaya, jo Stochastic indicator par bullish divergence ke bawajood hua. Main ne "Hammer" pattern ke basis par ek counter-trend buy entry li thi. Agla major target ab psychological level 139.01 hai, jo ke volatility ki wajah se jaldi hit ho sakta hai. Moving average ke aas-paas ek minor correction ka intezar hai, uske baad downward trend ki continuation ka imkaan hai.
Hourly chart par, price abhi tak ek descending channel mein hai. Kal pair neeche gaya, magar channel ke lower boundary ko touch nahi kar saka. Price ka next target ab takreeban 139.74 par hai, jahan ek reversal ka imkaan hai jo price ko channel ke upper boundary tak push kar sakti hai, jo ke 142.18 ke aas-paas hai. Daily chart par 140.35 ka global support level kaafi weak lagta hai, aur double bottom pattern yeh suggest kar raha hai ke current level se ek minor bullish correction ho sakti hai. Lekin, USD/JPY ka aggressive downtrend jari hai, jo ke US dollar ki devaluation aur Japanese yen ki mazbooti ki wajah se hai, aur market mein volatility abhi bhi high hai.

Is haftay USD/JPY ki movement zyada nahi badli kyunki price dominant bearish trend mein hai. Haftay ke end tak, jo price 140.83 se downward move hui, wo bearish phase ko continue kar sakti hai kyunki last Saturday raat market ne apna daily level downward rally ke sath complete kia tha. Major timeframe charts mein trend abhi tak bearish phase mein hai, aur last week ka trend iss haftay bhi bearish movement ko indicate karta hai. Aane wale trend mein sellers kaafi active lagte hain aur wo ek aur bearish leg ke liye ready hain, jo price ko 129.40 - 130.00 ke level tak le ja sakta hai.

Candlestick chart par, price ka movement Moving Average ke neeche stable hai, jo ek mazid bearish trend ko confirm karta hai. Mera andaza hai ke market mein mazeed girawat ho sakti hai, pichlay week ke dominant seller behavior ko dekhte hue. Relative Strength Index (RSI) par Lime Line level 50 se neeche hai, jo ke bearish sentiment ka mazid ishara hai. Aaj aur kal main sirf SELL entries ko target kar raha hoon, kyunki price movement ne 141.00 ke level ka breakout kar liya hai, jo ke bearish trend ke continuation ke liye mazeed opportunities provide kar raha hai.

USD/JPY

Neeche diye gaye chart mein hum USD/JPY exchange rate dekh sakte hain. Jab bhi trade dhoondhni ho, to mein hamesha yeh mashwara deta hoon ke hourly charts dekhein jo major timeframes ke trend ke sath aligned hoon. Aaj Asia mein, Tokyo CPI ka inflation report Japan se aaya hai jo ke 2.6% hai. Yeh forecasted 2.4% se zyada hai, jo bears ke haq mein hai kyunke yeh Bank of Japan ke liye ek aur rate hike ka buniyad bana raha hai is saal ke akhir tak. Lekin aaj ki technique ke sath zyada ehtiyat baratni hogi. Iski wajah yeh hai ke price daily trend line ke upar se gir chuki hai, aur yeh sab us khabar se pehle ho raha hai jo is haftay ki shayad sab se important news hai — personal consumption data USA ka. Yeh inflation report aksar trend ko set karta hai. Main bhi trend line se pair ko sell kar chuka hoon, lekin ab yeh threat mein hai. Sab kuch data par depend karega.

USD/JPY pair mein tez girawat dekhne ko mili, jo 145.00 ke qareeb aayi, aur iski wajah Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish guidance ka asar tha. Ueda ne dobara se yeh wazeh kiya ke BOJ ko is saal mazeed interest rates barhane ki zarurat hai. Unhone zor diya ke agar economic aur inflationary conditions expectations ke mutabiq hoon, to central bank dair nahi karega action lene mein. Is bayaan ne Japanese yen ko mazbooti di, jisse USD/JPY pair par selling pressure aya. Filhal, yeh 144.80 ke support level ke qareeb hai.

US dollar ke mazboot hone ke bawajood, jo ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ke 102.00 ke two-week high tak pohanchne se zahir hai, USD/JPY pair ab bhi pressure mein hai. US dollar investors ke ehtiyat baratne ke rujhan ke saath barha hai kyunke aglay US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ka intezar hai jo ke Jumma ko aa raha hai. Yeh economic data bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai kyunke Federal Reserve ab zyadah focus kar raha hai labor market ke downside risks ko manage karne par, jabke inflation ke 2% target tak wapas aane ka yaqeen hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, Tokyo ka consumer price index (CPI), fresh food ko chhor kar, August mein expect se zyada barha, jo 2.4% tak pohanch gaya, aur Bank of Japan ke hawkish stance ko justify karta hai.

Stock trading front par, U.S. stock indices mein tez girawat dekhi gayi, khaaskar technology stocks mein... Trading ke mutabiq, U.S. stocks Tuesday ko kaafi neeche gir gaye, aur yeh August 5 ke baad ka sab se bura din tha, jo ke economic concerns aur technology stocks mein major sell-off ki wajah se tha. Iske mutabiq, S&P 500 2.1% neeche gaya, tech-heavy Nasdaq 3.1% gir gaya, aur Dow Jones ne 625 points kho diye.

EUR/JPY currency pair ne Monday ko doosre din bhi girawat dekhi, aur Asian trading session ke doran mid-$155.00 ke neeche trade kiya. Yen ki girawat ka asar yen ke bullish sentiment se tha, magar Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki aane wali key policy meeting se pehle follow-through buying ki kami thi. Recent hawkish signals BoJ officials se yeh suggest kar rahe hain ke central bank is saal ke akhir tak interest rates ko aur barha sakta hai. Yeh umeed yen ko support kar rahi hai aur EUR/JPY pair par pressure daal rahi hai. Junko Nakagawa, ek BoJ board member, ne pichle haftay kaha tha ke central bank rate ko aur barha sakta hai agar economy aur inflation uski umeedon ke mutabiq chalti hai. Iske ilawa, Naoki Tamura, doosre BoJ board member, ne Thursday ko yeh suggest kiya tha ke central bank short-term interest rates ko fiscal 2026 tak 1% ke aas-paas le aaye taake apni 2% inflation target ko consistently achieve kar sake. BoJ ka yeh stance European Central Bank (ECB) ke recent decision ke bilkul ulta hai, jisme ECB ne is cycle mein doosri baar interest rates ko kam kiya. ECB ke decision se yeh maloom hota hai ke aane wale mahino mein borrowing costs kam ho sakti hain, jo euro ki relatively weak performance aur EUR/JPY pair par pressure ka ek aur sabab hai.

### **Technical Analysis:**

Kal 1.1020 supply area ke aas-paas consolidation ne kamzor buying interest ko zahir kiya. Jab tak pullback is area ke neeche rahega, mazeed selling expect ki ja rahi hai jo exposed point of control (POC) level 1.0987 tak ja sakti hai, aur bearish zone 1.0965 tak extend ho sakti hai. Agar 1.1020 ke upar break hota hai, toh yeh liquidity search ko trigger kar sakta hai bade volume lots ke aas-paas 1.1044, phir se girawat shuru hone se pehle. Bearish scenario tab tak jari rahega jab tak rebound recent intraday resistance 1.1055 ko decisively break nahi karta. Agar ECB expected se kam rates cut karta hai, toh euro positive react kar sakta hai, aur din ke doran key resistance levels ko break kar sakta hai. Short position open karne se pehle yeh zaroori hai ke exhaustion/reversal (ERP) pattern 1.1020 ke neeche confirm ho. Agar pattern nahi banta, toh next selling zone 1.1044 tak bounce ka intezaar karna aur M5 technical setup ke zariye short entry confirm karna behtar hai. Early aur uncertain entries se bachna chahiye.

USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai. Traders ko hoshiyaar rehna chahiye, kyunke agle kuch sessions shayad pair ke future direction ke bare mein critical insights provide karenge, jo iss evolving market landscape mein sahi position le ke trading opportunities provide USD/JPY ke trading options mein, buy option ab bhi USD/ JPY movement ko dominate karega. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke is currency pair ko chhoti lot sizes ke sath trade karein aur stop orders set karein taake potential losses ko minimize kiya ja sake, kyunki situation rapidly adverse ho sakti hai. USD/JPY mein se kaam lena zaroori hai. Is liye, apne trading plan mein stop loss ko shaamil karna bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai, takay aap apne account ko kisi bhi naqabili tajweez nuksaan se bacha sakein. Market kabhi bhi ghair mutawaqqa tor par chal sakta hai, aur stop loss aapki downside risks ko limit karne mein madadgar sabit ho sakta hai, takay agar market aapke position ke khilaaf chaley, to bhi aapka capital mehfooz rahe.
Is trade mein acha risk-reward ratio barqarar rakhne ke liye stop loss ko aik strategic level par set karna zaroori hoga. Agle chand dinon mein ye wazeh hoga ke kya buyers market mein wapas aa sakte hain aur price ko 141.55 resistance zone ki taraf push kar sakte hain. Agar market sentiment ya USD aur JPY se mutaliq economic indicators mein koi positive developments hoti hain

Jis tarah se hum USD aur JPY ke pair ka tajziya kar rahe hain, yeh waqt ek kaabil-e-zikr neeche ki taraf trend mein hai, jo asal mein Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki mukhtalif monetary policies se mutasir hai. USD/JPY ke haal hi ke girawat ki wajah zyada tar bazar mein 25 basis point (bps) rate cut ki umeedain hain, jo ke Fed ke aane wale September 17-18 ke meeting mein discuss ki jayein gi. Halankeh recent tezi dekhi gayi hai, lekin yeh umeedain US Dollar (USD) ko apne faiday ko mazeed barhane se rok rahi hain. Dosri taraf, bazar mein ehtiyaat ka rujhan Japanese Yen ki safe-haven asset ke tor par demand ko barhawa de raha hai, jo USD/JPY pair par mazeed dabao daal raha hai. Saath hi, BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne tasdeeq ki hai ke bank FY2025 tak interest rates ko barhane ka plan bana raha hai, jo Fed ke umeed ke mutabiq rate cut ke bilkul baraks hai, aur yeh pair ke neeche ki taraf trend ko mazeed barhawa de raha hai. Traders filhal ehtiyaat se kaam le rahe hain aur koi faisla karnay se pehle US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke Fed ke agle policy qadam ke hawale se ahem maloomat faraham karega aur USD/JPY pair ke short-term outlook ko mutasir karega. Technical Tajziya:

Technical lehaz se dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair mein waazeh bearish signals dekhnay ko mil rahe hain. Is waqt, yeh pair apne roz ke opening level 143.20 se neeche trade kar raha hai aur daily Pivot level 142.95 ke qareeb hai. Qeemat moving average trend line ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, jo ek ahem level hota hai jahan volume distribution aam tor par hoti hai, aur yeh strong selling pressure ko zahir karta hai. Agar qeemat 143.20 level ke upar chali jati hai, to mazeed izafa dekhne ko mil sakta hai jo resistance levels 143.69 aur 143.75 tak jasakta hai. Agar qeemat 142.95 level ke neeche girti hai, to umeed hai ke yeh aur neeche jaegi aur support levels 142.74 aur shayad 142.20 tak gir sakti hai. Yeh pair apne monthly Pivot level 146.24 aur weekly Pivot level 143.75 ke neeche bhi trade kar raha hai, jo ek corrective mood ko zahir karta hai. Hourly chart mein, yeh pair apni pehle ki range 143.69 se 142.14 ke neeche chala gaya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke sellers filhal bazar mein haawi hain. Lekin traders ko ek mumkin false breakout se ehtiyaat karni chahiye. Kul mila kar, technical indicators ek bearish outlook ko support karte hain, aur agar pair key support levels ke neeche trade karta raha, to mazeed girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY is level ke neeche hold nahi kar pata, toh yeh agle support levels ki taraf move kar sakta hai, jo ke possible 168.00 ya us se niche ho sakta hai. Agar support hold karta hai, toh ek rebound ho sakta hai, aur pair pehle ke highs ko test kar sakta hai jo ke 168.70-169.00 ke ird-gird ho sakte hain. D1 moving average line ek trend indicator ka kaam karti hai. Agar USD/JPY is line ke upar rehta hai, toh yeh bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, agar yeh moving average ke neeche sustained trading hoti hai, toh yeh ek trend reversal ya consolidation phase ka ishara ho sakti hai.

USDJPY ka 146.65 ka level buyers ko zyada stability faraham karta hai. Unka tajwez hai ke agle waqt mein ek bullish scenario dekhne ko mil sakta hai jo unhe 147.00 ki taraf le jayega. Isliye, aaj market environment bulls ke haq mein hai. USDJPY ke daily time frame par bearish trend aur bhi zyada numayan hai. Yeh extended view yeh tasdeeq karta hai ke market sellers ke zyada pressure mein hai, jo ke selling strategy ko support karta hai. Daily chart ek broader context faraham karta hai jo current downturn ko samajhne aur behtar faislay lene mein madad karta hai. Hourly aur daily charts par bearish trend ki consistency selling strategy ko support karti hai. Market behavior ko seriously monitor karna zaroori hai. Is waqt ke market conditions ko dekhte hue, United States dollar ki strength ko bhi madde nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Halankeh dollar khud mein exceptionally strong nahi hai, magar doosri currencies ke muqablay mein kuch strength dikhata hai. Yeh slight strength selling strategy ko support karti hai, kyun ke dollar ki relative strength currency pair par downward pressure ko barha sakti hai. Trading plan mein is pehlu ko shamil karna optimal results ke liye zaroori hai. USDJPY ke price ke mutabiq, ek selling entry, jab achi tarah se plan ki jaye aur well-defined profit targets aur stop-loss points ke sath ho, to success ke chances ko behtaar bana sakti hai. Profit target ko 20 se 30 pips ke darmiyan set karna chahiye, jo current market pressure aur trend par base ho. Isliye, aaj United States trading session ke doran price 146.82 level ko pehle touch kar sakti hai. Aapko aaj ke trading ke liye best wishes!

USD/JPY ki price 145.54 se upar move karti hai, to ye bullish reversal ka ishara ho sakta hai. Aise mein pair resistance levels 145.91 aur shayad 146.24 ki taraf barh sakta hai. Lekin agar ye upward movement ko maintain nahi karti, to bearish trend aur bhi mazboot ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar pair 145.05 ke neeche girti hai. Aise mein further declines dekhne ko mil sakti hain, price 144.88 tak ja sakti hai aur shayad 144.25 tak bhi extend ho sakti hai. Bigger context bhi bearish sentiment ko support karta hai. Pair monthly Pivot level 146.24, weekly Pivot level 145.29, aur daily Pivot level 145.91 se neeche trade kar raha hai. Ye indicators USD/JPY par overall downward pressure ko reflect karte hain. Monthly Pivot level pehle 153.85 tha, jo market dynamics mein significant shift ko highlight karta hai. Isi tarah, weekly Pivot level pehle 147.65 tha, jo recent period mein downward trend ko darshata hai. USD/JPY pair mein aik tezi se girawat dekhi gayi hai, jo ke 145.00 ke qareeb pohanch gayi hai. Is girawat ka sabab Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ki hawkish guidance thi. Ueda ne ye dohraya ke BOJ ko iss saal interest rates mazeed barhane ki zarurat hai, aur agar economic aur inflationary conditions expectations ke mutabiq hon, toh central bank kisi bhi qadam uthane mein hichkichahat nahi karega. Is bayaan se Japanese yen mein mazid izafa hua, jis ne USD/JPY pair par selling pressure daal diya. Is waqt yeh 144.80 support level ke aas paas hold kar rahi hai.
USD/JPY pair ke overnight decline ka sabab bani. Iske ilawa, US manufacturing sector se aayi negative data, jo ke dopahar mein release hui, ne mazeed decline ko fuel kiya. Filhal yen zyada tar ek haven ke tor par kaam kar raha hai, doosri major currencies ke muqable mein dollar ke khilaf. Aaj S&P 500 index kareeban 3% gira, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke yen ki haven ke tor par demand barh rahi hai. A slight pullback is pair ko "discount" par khareedne ka moqa faraham karta hai. Lekin yeh market hai, aur yehan hamesha unexpected movements ho sakti hain. Main dekh raha hoon ke yeh pair 144.89 support level ke aas-paas kis tarah react karta hai, jabke broader market

USD/JPY currency pair ki qeemat ki haliya soorat-e-haal ka tajziya hai. USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat ki umeed nahi ki ja sakti. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke woh yen ki qeemat mein tezi se utar chadhav par mudakhlat kar sakte hain

USD/JPY Ki Price Projection

Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke current pricing behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. USD/JPY pair ne apna closing price 142.29 par diya. H4 technical chart pe Envelopes indicator ne decline ka signal diya hai, jabke Momentum indicator ne selling ka mauqa dikhaya hai. MACD bhi negative zone mein hai, jo is baat ko mazid reinforce karta hai ke downward movement ka imkaan hai, jo shayad 140.01 tak pohanch sakti hai. Magar mera plan yeh hai ke main ek higher point par sell karoon, ideally 147.01 ke qareeb, jahan main rise expect kar raha hoon. Idea yeh hai ke pehle price ko barhne diya jaye, sellers ke stop-losses ko collect karne diya jaye, aur phir market downward dive kare. Bullish outlook stable lagta hai, magar yeh speculative hai aur asal natija market ke hawale hai.







USD/JPY pair ne apne losses ko dusre din bhi extend kiya, aur Wednesday ke Asian session mein 141.20 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Is downward movement ka sabab primarily Japanese yen (JPY) ka strength gain karna tha, jo ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governing Council ke member Junko Nagakawa ke hawkish comments ke baad aya. BoJ apni monetary easing ko adjust kar sakti hai agar economic aur price trends uski expectations ke mutabiq rahe. July mein interest rates raise karne ke bawajood, real interest rates ab bhi negative hain, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke monetary conditions ab bhi accommodative hain. BoJ aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki contrasting monetary policies ne carry trade unwinds ko encourage kiya aur yen ki demand ko barhaya. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ne dobarah central bank ki commitment ko reiterate kiya ke jab tak Japanese economy fiscal 2025 ke forecasts ko meet karti rahegi, interest rates ko barhaya jata rahega. US dollar (USD) weak raha kyunke US Treasury yields US consumer price index (CPI) data ke release se pehle girti rahi. CPI data se yeh pata chalega ke Fed ki September rate cut ki potential depth kya hogi. Recent US labor market reports ne bhi Fed ke major rate cut ke imkaan par shak dal diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ne yeh dikhaya ke market puri tarah se expect kar rahi hai ke Fed kam az kam 25 basis points ka rate cut karega September meeting mein, magar 50 basis points ke rate cut ke chances thode se kam hue hain.

Trading Analysis Update – Saturday, 14th September 2024

Daily Timeframe Mein Movement:

Agar hum USDJPY currency pair ke daily timeframe mein price trend movement ka tajziya karein, to guzishta haftay ki trading session mein dekh sakte hain ke sellers ka zyada asar raha. Yeh halat candlestick movement se wazeh hoti hai jo ke pichlay haftay se consistent downward movement dikhata hai, aur is haftay ke end tak yeh trend jari raha. Khaaskar agar hum aakhri trading din ka daily movement dekhein, jahan ek long bearish candlestick form hui thi aur closing price Monday ke opening price se kaafi neeche rahi, to yeh stable volatility ke sath ek bearish situation ko darshata hai. Agar is haftay ka bearish movement guzishta haftay ke market trend ka continuation hai, to is ka matlab hai ke market apne bearish trend ki taraf agay barh sakta hai.

Indicators ke hawale se agar dekha jaye to Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) par Lime Line ka direction wazeh tor par neeche ja raha hai. Pehle yeh line aksar level 50 ke qareeb rehti thi, lekin ab yeh level 30 ke neeche break kar chuki hai. Doosray complementary indicators ka agar tajziya karein, to MACD (12,26,29) ka histogram bar bhi neeche jata dikh raha hai aur uska shape bhi chhota hota ja raha hai, jo ke market ke bearish direction mein jane ki nishani hai. MACD signal ka dotted Yellow Line ka direction bhi neeche ko turn le raha hai. Saath hi, candlestick bhi yellow Simple Moving Average (SMA) 60 indicator ke neeche gir chuka hai, jo ke daily timeframe par market ke downward trend mein move karne ko darshata hai.

USD/JPY ke Major Fundamentals:

USD/JPY currency pair mein recent days mein ek downward trend dekha gaya hai, jo economic expectations aur current events ka natija hai. U.S. Federal Reserve se umeed hai ke woh aanay wali Wednesday meeting mein interest rates ko reduce karein ge. Aam tor par rate cut ka maqsad economic activity ko barhawa dena hota hai, lekin yeh U.S. dollar ko investors ke liye kam appealing bana sakta hai kyun ke is se returns kam ho jati hain. Dosri taraf, Bank of Japan (BOJ) ki Friday meeting mein kisi interest rate change ki umeed nahi hai. BOJ ka yeh stable stance Japanese yen ko U.S. dollar ke against strong ya steady rakh sakta hai. Yeh mix of U.S. rate cuts aur Japan mein stable rates USD/JPY pair ke ongoing decline mein contribute kar sakti hai.

Is overall bearish outlook ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair mein kuch interesting possibilities bhi hain. Halaat yeh dikhate hain ke jab ke U.S. dollar doosri currencies ke against kamzor ho sakta hai, lekin yen ke against thoda rise bhi ho sakta hai. Yeh unexpected scenario tab ho sakta hai agar koi unforeseen economic news ya market sentiment mein shift hoti hai. Is liye, traders ko U.S. ke economic reports, jaise ke Core Retail Sales aur Retail Sales data ko ghaur se monitor karna chahiye taake yeh samajh a sake ke yeh elements USD/JPY pair ko kaise affect karte hain.

USD/JPY Price Action:

Agar technical analysis ka tajziya kiya jaye, to USD/JPY pair ek downward trajectory mein hai, jo previous lows ko break karta gaya hai aur apna price pattern badal raha hai. Yeh decline dikhata hai ke abhi market mein sellers ka control hai. Technical indicators aur moving averages bhi yeh suggest karte hain ke bearish trend jari reh sakta hai, kyun ke yeh aam tor par pair ko sell karne ki nishaniyan dete hain. Weekly Fibonacci retracement levels 38.1% mark ke qareeb support dikhate hain. Is ka matlab yeh hai ke agar price aur neeche girti hai, to is level par buying interest aa sakta hai aur yeh trend ko reverse kar sakta hai.







Halaanki, sellers ke liye price ko significantly lower push karna ek challenge ban gaya hai. Agar 38.1% level ka support mazboot rehta hai, to rebound ka mauqa mil sakta hai jo price ko 14.5% Fibonacci retracement level tak wapas le ja sakta hai. Traders ko 140.84 ke qareeb support level par price movement ka close monitoring karna chahiye potential selling opportunities ke liye, aur 141.55 ke resistance level par possible buying signals ke liye. Akhir mein, technical outlook suggest karta hai ke near term mein USD/JPY pair bearish trend ko maintain kar sakta hai, lekin key support levels aur aanay wali economic data market ka future direction bhi influence kar sakte hain.

USD/JPY currency pair ki qeemat ki haliya soorat-e-haal ka tajziya hai. USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ehtiyat ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat ki umeed nahi ki ja sakti. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke woh yen ki qeemat mein tezi se utar chadhav par mudakhlat kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar yeh ziyada mazboot ho jaye. Is liye, 129 ka target haqeeqat par mabni nahi lagta, kyun ke Bank of Japan 139 ke aas-paas mudakhlat kar sakta hai aur apni currency ko kamzor karne ke liye bazaar mein yen ki badi miktar inject kar sakta hai USD/JPY pair par asar pada. Natija ye hai ke buying strength kam ho gayi hai, aur market mein ek ehtiyaati soch dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Aaj ka market action zyada tar mazeed economic data

se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi. Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai. Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai. Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai, USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend