USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY Market Outlook

Assalam o Alaikum aur Good Morning sab Visitors aur Traders ke liye! Kal ka din USD/JPY buyers ke liye achha raha jab unhone bounce kar ke 141.75 zone ko successfully break kiya. Aaj bhi traders ke liye aik ahm din hai kyun ke aaj bohat si important news release hone wali hain. Hum Asian aur USA trading zones mein trade kar sakte hain kyun ke yeh zones aksar technical analysis ke zariye identify kiye jate hain aur market ko apni upward trajectory continue karne ke liye inhe overcome karna hota hai. Aaj ka combination fundamental news ka – khas tor par FOMC aur Building Permits reports – buyers ko yeh resistance levels break karne ke liye zaroori catalyst de sakti hain. Khas tor par, FOMC ka interest rates ke hawale se decision traders bohat ghor se dekhenge. Agar Federal Reserve yeh indicate karta hai ke wo ek zyada accommodative monetary policy rakhne ka irada rakhta hai, to yeh aur zyada buying interest ko fuel kar sakta hai aur market ko resistance zone ke paar le ja sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar Fed aik hawkish tone adopt karta hai aur signal karta hai ke interest rates expected se ziada tezi se barhenge, to yeh buyers ke liye challenges paida kar sakta hai aur unke liye resistance zone ko cross karna mushkil ho sakta hai. Umeed hai ke aaj ka din USD/JPY market mein humein mazeed trading opportunities dega. Iske ilawa, Federal Funds Rate ka decision bhi aaj ke trading landscape mein aik key element hai. Federal Funds Rate ka seedha asar businesses aur consumers ke borrowing costs par hota hai, aur is rate mein koi bhi tabdeeli poori economy par ripple effect daal sakti hai. Aik lower Federal Funds Rate borrowing ko sasta bana deta hai, jo ke zyada spending aur investment ko encourage kar sakta hai. Buyers yeh umeed kar rahe hain ke aaj ka FOMC meeting ka faisla Federal Funds Rate ko low rakhne ka hoga, ya future rate hikes gradual aur measured hone ka signal diya jayega.




Khush rahain aur aik profitable Wednesday guzarein!

USD/JPY Ka Tajziya
Equity markets ke dynamics kaafi aham kirdar ada karte hain currency landscape mein, khaaskar Japanese Yen (JPY) par, jo aksar ek safe-haven asset ke tor par dekha jata hai. Magar, equity markets mein achi sentiment ne JPY ki appeal ko kam kar diya hai. Iske sath sath US Dollar (USD) mein thoda izafa dekhne ko mila, jo USD/JPY pair ke liye mazid strength ka sabab bana, aur ab ye pair 141.71 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. In factors ka aapas ka rishta currency pair ke future movements ko samajhne mein ek complex analysis ka taluq hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) se kuch halya insights monetary policy ke future par roshni dalti hain. July policy meeting ke summary of opinions mein kuch members ne mazeed rate hikes aur policy normalization ka imkaan dekhwaya. Yeh indicate karta hai ke BoJ apne ongoing economic challenges ko address karne ke liye kuch steps uthane par ghore kar raha hai. Magar, geopolitical tensions ab bhi risk create kar rahe hain, jo JPY ki deeper losses ko roknay mein madadgar hain aur USD/JPY pair ke upward momentum ko cap karte hain.

USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Former BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai ne 2024 mein kisi bhi rate hike par shak ka izhar kiya hai. Unhon ne yeh predict kiya ke agla rate increase March 2025 se pehle nahi hoga, aur yeh nazariya halya market volatility aur economic recovery ke dim forecast par mabni hai. Yehi baat BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida ke dovish remarks se bhi zahir hoti hai, jo kehte hain ke central bank instable market conditions ke doran rates ko nahi barhaye ga, jo JPY par downward pressure daal raha hai aur USD/JPY pair ko support kar raha hai.

BoJ ki June meeting ke minutes mein rising import prices par fikar ka izhar kiya gaya, jo ke JPY ke halya decline ka nateeja hain. In price increases se inflation mein mazeed izafa ho sakta hai, aur ek member ne cost-push inflation ke risk ko highlight kiya, jo inflation aur currency strength ke darmiyan ek complex relationship ko darshata hai. Investors ke liye yeh rishta monitor karna bohot zaroori hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Pair ko immediate support 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas mil sakta hai, jo ke qareeban 142.00 hai. Agar pair is level se neeche girta hai, toh yeh bearish sentiment ko mazid barha sakta hai, aur currency pair ko 7-mahina low, jo ke 139.57 hai aur 16 September ko record hua tha, tak le ja sakta hai. Aage girawat 140.34 ke next support level tak guide kar sakti hai, jo traders ke liye ghore ka maqam hai.

Wednesday tak price 141.73 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hai. Daily chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ab bhi 9-day EMA ke upar hai, jo ek short-term bullish trend ko zahir karta hai. Magar, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) abhi 50 se neeche hai, jo ke dikhata hai ke bullish momentum ab tak mazboot nahi hua. Ek sustained increase zaroori hoga taake genuine bullish outlook confirm ho sake.

USD/JPY Price Outlook
Iss waqt hum USD/JPY currency pair ke pricing movements ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Kal ke 142.39 ke high se price neeche ki taraf move karna shuru hui. Mera sell zone likely nahi tha, halan ke 14:29 local time par aham khabrein aani thi. Din ke doran aur bhi news items add kiye jayenge, jo previous highs ko retest karne ka momentum barhayein gi. Upar ke level par kai seller positions ikatthi ho chuki hain, aur daily chart ab possible reversal ya growth ki taraf shift hone ke asaar dekhane laga hai. Din ke doran price kaafi barh gayi, jo meri forecast ke mutabiq thi. Mera Tuesday ke liye bhi focus growth tha, kyunke Monday ko price ne 140.178 ke support ko test kiya aur wapas bounce karte hue is level ke upar close hui. Din bhar price barhti rahi, 141.873 resistance ko tor kar iske upar close hui. Aaj ka focus bhi growth par hai, aur 141.873 ke support ko retest karne ke baad, price ab bhi barh rahi hai. Agar aaj ka session is level ke ooper close karta hai, toh agla target 143.746 resistance hoga.

H1 chart par, USD/JPY kal ki impulse candle range mein trade kar raha hai. Mujhe price 142.28 ke resistance ki taraf momentum build karta hua nazar aa raha hai, jo ek critical level hai jo market direction ko zahir karega. Agar price 142.98 range ke ooper break kar ke consolidate karta hai, toh ye long positions kholne ka signal hoga, aur bullish rally jari rahegi. Is scenario mein profit targets 143.47 aur 144.55 ke upper extremes honge. Doosri taraf, agar momentum wapas aata hai, toh downside move 141.18 ke low ko test kar sakta hai. Is bearish direction ki tasdeeq tab hogi jab price broken range ke neeche consolidate karegi, jo instrument ke bearish channel mein wapsi ka signal hoga. Market mein growth aur correction ka imkaan hai, aur key levels 141.873 aur 142.98 next move ko determine karenge. Agar price 141.873 ke neeche close karti hai, toh kal ke liye priority decline par hogi, jo 140.178 ke support ko target karegi.

USD/JPY Price Outlook
Iss waqt hum USD/JPY currency pair ke pricing movements ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Kal ke 142.39 ke high se price neeche ki taraf move karna shuru hui. Mera sell zone likely nahi tha, halan ke 14:29 local time par aham khabrein aani thi. Din ke doran aur bhi news items add kiye jayenge, jo previous highs ko retest karne ka momentum barhayein gi. Upar ke level par kai seller positions ikatthi ho chuki hain, aur daily chart ab possible reversal ya growth ki taraf shift hone ke asaar dekhane laga hai. Din ke doran price kaafi barh gayi, jo meri forecast ke mutabiq thi. Mera Tuesday ke liye bhi focus growth tha, kyunke Monday ko price ne 140.178 ke support ko test kiya aur wapas bounce karte hue is level ke upar close hui. Din bhar price barhti rahi, 141.873 resistance ko tor kar iske upar close hui. Aaj ka focus bhi growth par hai, aur 141.873 ke support ko retest karne ke baad, price ab bhi barh rahi hai. Agar aaj ka session is level ke ooper close karta hai, toh agla target 143.746 resistance hoga.

H1 chart par, USD/JPY kal ki impulse candle range mein trade kar raha hai. Mujhe price 142.28 ke resistance ki taraf momentum build karta hua nazar aa raha hai, jo ek critical level hai jo market direction ko zahir karega. Agar price 142.98 range ke ooper break kar ke consolidate karta hai, toh ye long positions kholne ka signal hoga, aur bullish rally jari rahegi. Is scenario mein profit targets 143.47 aur 144.55 ke upper extremes honge. Doosri taraf, agar momentum wapas aata hai, toh downside move 141.18 ke low ko test kar sakta hai. Is bearish direction ki tasdeeq tab hogi jab price broken range ke neeche consolidate karegi, jo instrument ke bearish channel mein wapsi ka signal hoga. Market mein growth aur correction ka imkaan hai, aur key levels 141.873 aur 142.98 next move ko determine karenge. Agar price 141.873 ke neeche close karti hai, toh kal ke liye priority decline par hogi, jo 140.178 ke support ko target karegi.

Mere kuch bunyadi points hain Price MA200 moving average ke neeche hai, jo ke ek bearish trend ka ishara hai. Guzishta trading day ke doosray hissay mein yeh currency pair opening line ke neeche trade karta raha, aur din ka closing price bhi opening line se neeche tha. Aaj ka price quotation neeche wali Bollinger Band ko cross kar ke south ja raha hai, jo ke southern sentiment ko emphasize karta hai aur yeh currency pair zyada giraawat ki taraf ja sakta hai.Jab main trade karta hoon to main hamesha RSI indicator par khaas tawajjo data hoon. Agar yeh overbought period (70 se zyada) ya oversold period (30 se neeche) dikhaaye, to trade nahi karta. Filhal RSI sell-off ke khilaf nahi hai, kyun ke iska value favorable territory mein hai. Main apna take profit Fibonacci level 211% par set karta hoon, jo ke price value 138.100 kay mutabiq hai. Uske baad main apni position ko breakeven point tak move kar ke agay kay Fibonacci lows ko track karoonga. USD/JPY ne Thursday ko Asian trade mein 144.00 se gira kar thoda upar 143.00 par aaya. Yeh pair apne gains ko dobara resume kar raha hai, jab ke risk sentiment barh raha hai aur dollar ka recovery process slow ho raha hai Federal Reserve ke decision ki wajah se. Agla focus US ke data aur Friday ko Bank of Japan ke decision par hoga. USD/JPY Thursday ko takreeban 143.00 par trade ho raha tha.Daily chart yeh dikha raha hai ke yeh pair aik descending channel ke andar merge ho raha hai, jo ke bearish outlook ko support karta hai. Lekin, 14-day relative strength index (RSI) 50 ke kareeb ja raha hai, aur price 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) se upar chala gaya hai, jo ek upward correction ka ishara hai. Downside par, USD/JPY pehli dafa resistance 21-day moving average par 143.73 pe encounter karega, aur phir upper boundary of the downward channel ke kareeb 145.00 pe resistance milegi. Support ke tor par, USD/JPY ko immediate support 139.58 par milega, jo June 2023 ke baad ka sab se neecha level hai, aur phir descending channel ke bottom par 137.75 ka support milega. Main barh kar apne targets tak pohanchne ka intezaar kar raha hoon. Sab ko successful trading ki dua deta hoon

JPY par yeh bearish pressure ziy economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar US dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, special agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, opsalar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai. Traders ko hoshiyaar rehna chahiye, kyunke agle kuch sessions shayad pair ke future direction ke bare mein critical insights provide karenge, jo iss evolving market landscape mein sahi position le ke trading opportunities provide USD/JPY ke trading options mein, buy option ab bhi USD/ JPY movement ko dominate karega. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke is currency pair ko chhoti lot sizes ke sath trade karein aur stop orders set karein taake potential losses ko minimize kiya ja sake, kyunki situation rapidly adverse ho sakti hai. USD/JPY mein se kaam lena zaroori hai. Is liye, apne trading plan mein stop loss ko shaamil karna bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai, takay aap apne account ko kisi bhi naqabili tajweez nuksaan se bacha sakein. Market kabhi bhi ghair mutawaqqa tor par chal sakta hai, aur stop loss aapki downside risks ko limit karne mein madadgar sabit ho sakta hai, takay agar market aapke position ke khilaaf chaley, to bhi aapka capital mehfooz rahe.
Is trade mein acha risk-reward ratio barqarar rakhne ke liye stop loss ko aik strategic level par set karna zaroori hoga. Agle chand dinon mein ye wazeh hoga ke kya buyers market mein wapas aa sakte hain aur price ko 141.55 resistance zone ki taraf push kar sakte hain

USD/JPY ka price apne low point se decline hua aur aik din mein kuch apni favorable aspects kho diye. Wednesday ki Asian session ke dauran yeh pair strong tha, lekin phir 142.00 mark se neeche close hua. Jab traders ko aggressive bets place karni thi central bank tournament risks ke hawale se, toh essential context ne yeh indicate kiya ke spot cost ke liye downward momentum ka rujhan zyada hai. Federal Reserve ka do din ka meeting Wednesday ko khatam hona tha, jisme unka faisla announce kiya gaya, aur umeed thi ke woh apna coverage easing cycle start karein ge. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka coverage shift Friday ko expected tha, jo market ke liye bohot interest ka moqa tha kyun ke iska direct asar Japanese yen (JPY) par hota aur USD/JPY pair ko ek significant upward move milta. Yeh cheez Tuesday ke unexpectedly strong US retail sales record ko overshadow karti, jo ke dollar ko apne 2024 lows se recover hone nahi de rahi thi. Lekin ek din mein hi US dollar ne apne intraday low 140.32 se rebound karte hue 142.44 tak pohanch gaya, jo yen ke muqablay mein ek strong increase tha. US ki strong economic facts ki wajah se investors ko Federal Reserve ke price reductions ke hawale se concerns thi, jis ki wajah se woh central bank ke economic policy decisions par focus kar rahe thay. Is ki wajah se dollar short sellers ne apni holdings ko reduce kar diya, jo USD/JPY pair ke liye aik negative move samjhi gayi.
Halaankeh USD/JPY ne 180 points se zyada ka faasla tay karte hue turning point 142.35 ko test kiya, yeh pair ab bhi downward bias show kar raha hai. Agar USD/JPY September 12 ko apne daily high 143.04 se upar break kar jaye, toh important resistance levels, Kijun-Sen at 144.48 aur Senkou Span A at 143.15 expose ho sakti hain. Lekin agar yeh 142.00 se neeche girta hai, toh yeh downtrend ko aur bhi worse kar dega. Is waqt ka annual low 139.58 ek key support level serve karega, aur 139.00 ka level ek strong support zone ho sakta hai

Mujhay lagta hai ke diversity buri cheez nahi hai, lekin abhi tak mere paas itna paisa nahi ke mai alag alag jagahon par invest kar sakoon. Jab tak pound aur yen ka muqabla hai, yeh kehna mushkil hai ke kaunsa instrument behtar hai, kyun ke har trader ki apni pasand hoti hai. Aur jab mai news indicators par focus nahi karta, toh yeh masla mere liye ziata ahemiyat nahi rakhta. Mai sirf chart par dekhta hoon aur wahan jo nazar aata hai, us par kaam karta hoon. Mera tareeqa sirf technical analysis par mabni hai, economic news ko main zyada ahmiyat nahi deta. Bus news release ka waqt yaad rakhta hoon. Maine yeh dekha hai ke kisi bhi news ka price direction par koi khas asar nahi hota jab news release hoti hai. USD/JPY ke hawalay se, jab se Bank of Japan ne rate hikes ka aaghaz kiya hai, ek medium-term downward trend ban sakta hai jisse paisa kamaya ja sakta hai. Agar price 149-150 tak barh jaye, toh mai sell karna shuru karunga. Halaanke abhi ek minimal correction hai, lekin technically yeh pair mazeed strong growth dekhna chahiye. Aise trend breakouts ka matlab hota hai ke mazid growth ki umeed hai, lekin filhal mujhe buy karne ka koi dil nahi hai. Technical Perspective se: USD/JPY pair is waqt 144.73 ke qareeb resistance ka samna kar rahi hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke price ko mazeed aage barhne mein mushkilat ho rahi hai. Agar hum daily chart ka jaiza lein, toh pair ek bearish outlook dikhata hai, jahan technical indicators ek possible decline ki taraf ishara karte hain. Haal hi mein bearish sentiment ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne apni position gain ki, aur 144.57 par close hui, jo 143.67 se barh kar 145.04 tak gayi thi. Yeh price action yeh dikhata hai ke pair abhi bhi kuch resilience dikha raha hai, halaanke bearish indicators hain. Traders ko umeed hai ke aaj USD/JPY 143.80 se 145.20 ke range mein trade karegi, jab ke ek ahem resistance level 145.70 par hai. Agar yeh resistance level barkarar rahta hai, toh pair ke liye mazeed barhna mushkil hoga. Technical setup yeh dikhata hai ke pair pichlay kuch dino mein koi significant decline nahi dikha saki, jo yeh imply karta hai ke bearish momentum ko market ke halat offset kar sakte hain. Ongoing resistance aur expected trading range yeh highlight karte hain ke market is waqt uncertain hai, aur traders ko resistance levels aur price movements ko ghair-mamooli ehtiyaat se dekhna hoga

USD/JPY buyers ke liye behtareen raha jab unhoon ne upar bounce kiya aur 141.75 zone ko successfully break kiya. Aaj bhi traders ke liye ek ahem din hai kyun ke aaj kay din mein bohot se important news events release hongay. Hum Asian aur USA trading zones mein trade kar saktay hain kyun ke ye zones technical analysis kay zariye identify hotay hain aur aik barrier ka kaam kartay hain jo market ko apni upward trajectory mein continue karnay ke liye overcome karna parta hai.
Aaj ka din fundamental news ke lihaaz se bohot important hai – special FOMC aur Building Permits reports, jo buyers ke liye resistance levels ko break karnay ka catalyst sabit ho sakti hain. Khaaskar, FOMC ka interest rates par faisla traders ke liye bohot closely dekha jayega. Agar Federal Reserve yeh ishara karta hai ke wo apni monetary policy ko zyada accommodative rakhna chahta hai, toh yeh buyers ke liye ek aur motivation ho sakta hai aur market ko resistance break karna aasaan ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar Fed hawkish tone apnaye aur yeh signal de ke interest rates expectations se zyada barhne wale hain, toh yeh buyers ke liye challenges peda kar sakta hai aur resistance zone cross karna mushkil ho jayega.

Umeed hai ke USD/JPY ka market aaj humein mazeed trading opportunities dega. Saath hi, Federal Funds Rate ka faisla bhi aaj ke trading scenario ka ek key element hoga. Federal Funds Rate ka direct impact hota hai borrowing costs par, jo ke businesses aur consumers ko directly effect karti hain. Agar yeh rate kam ho jata hai, toh borrowing sasti ho jati hai, jo zyada kharch aur investment ko promote karta hai. Buyers ko umeed hai ke aaj ka FOMC meeting ka faisla Federal Funds Rate ko low rakhay ya phir aane wale rate hikes ko gradual aur measured rakhnay ka ishara da

Sab ko subh bakhair aur guzishta hafta ke liye umeed hai ke aapka waqt mufeed raha hoga! USD/JPY ke sellers apne guzishta nuqsan ko khatam karne mein kaar-aamad ho rahe hain aur pair ko 149.40 ke zone tak dhakel rahe hain. Yeh soorat-e-haal market mein mazboot bearish sentiment ko zahir karti hai, kyun ke sellers ne control wapas hasil kar liya hai aur qeemat ko neeche ki taraf dhakel rahe hain. Is trend ko madde nazar rakhte hue, ek aur sell position kholna jise short target 143.51 par ho, kal ke aane se pehle ek mozu strategy nazar aati hai. Yeh target mojudah descending force se faida uthate hue, ek munasib munafa hasil karne ka mauka deta hai jab ke aam market sentiment ke saath bhi ham ahang rahta hai.
Is ke ilawa, mali indicators, central bank ke faislay, aur beyn-ul-aqwami soorat-e-haal bhi pair ke development par aham asar daal sakte hain. Waqt par maloomat se mutaliq rehne se traders ko apni position mein mozoon tabdiliyan karne aur apni strategy ko nayi maloomat ke tanazur mein mozoon rakhne ka mauka milta hai. Tawaqqo hai ke aane wale dinon mein qeemat ka rujhaan sellers ke haq mein rahega, jo ke nuqsan se niklne ke naye trend ko barhata rahega.

Yeh samajhna ke USD/JPY ke market sentiment ko asalihiyat se navigate karna zaroori hai. Sentiment jaldi badal sakta hai, aur traders ko tayyar rehna chahiye ke wo tabdiliyon ka bar waqt jawab dein. Yeh is cheez ko samajhne ko bhi shamil karta hai ke kisi bhi mumkin reversal ke asar ya bazaar ke wasi' trend mein kisi bhi tabdeeli ko pehchanein jo USD/JPY pair ko mutasir kar sakta hai. Market ki updates aur sentiment ko sahih taur par samajh kar, traders apne aap ko mauqa' par faida uthane ya risk ko mitigate karne ke liye behtar taur par munsalik kar sakte hain.

Ittifaqan, USD/JPY ke sellers ne apne nuqsan ko cover karne mein aham taraqqi hasil ki hai, aur 149.40 zone tak pahunch gaye hain. Ek sell position jiska short target 143.51 ho, mozu hai, lekin economic conditions ke badalte hue halaat ke saath ham ahang rehne

Aam tor par, jab Fed interest rates kam karta hai, toh US dollar kamzor hota hai, lekin is dafa kuch aur factors dollar ko mazboot bana rahe hain. Kam interest rate ka matlab hota hai ke qarz lena sasta hota hai aur economic activity ko tehqiqat milti hai. Magar is dafa, dollar phir bhi mazboot nazar aa raha hai, kyun ke doosri currencies, jaise yen, ke muqablay mein wo zyada stable hai. Doosri taraf, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka approach mukhtalif hai. BoJ apni policy ko jari rakhne ka irada rakhta hai, matlab ke woh jaldi interest rates mein koi tabdeeli nahi karenge. BoJ ne kaafi arse se low-interest-rate policy apna rakhi hai taake economic growth ko barhaya ja sake. Is policy ne yen ko kamzor rakha hai, osallar mazboot currencies jaise US dollar ke muqablay mein. Yeh contrast in policies, jahan US rates kam kar raha hai aur Japan unhein kaafi neeche rakh raha hai, yen ko mazid kamzor kar raha hai. Is yen ki kamzori ke sabab USD/JPY pair mein izafa hua hai, jo investors ko ek moka de raha hai ke wo upward movement se faida utha sakein. Ab bohot se traders yeh dekh rahe hain ke BoJ ka faisla market pe kaise asar andaz hoga, lekin ab tak yen kamzor hi nazar aa raha hai.


USD/JPY pair filhal 143.55 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai, aur yeh ek notable rise dikhati hai. Pair ko 143.68 ka ek key resistance level face karna par raha hai. Yeh resistance ek barrier ki tarah hai jo price ko mazeed barhne se rok raha hai. Hali trend ko dekhte hue, yeh lagta hai ke bulls (wo traders jo price ke barhne ki umeed rakhte hain) is level ke ooper push karne mein kaamyab ho sakte hain. Agar yeh hota hai, toh mazeed izafay ka rasta khul sakta hai.

Do ahem moving average indicators bhi yeh ishara de rahe hain ke market bullish phase mein hai. Moving averages wo tools hain jo traders ko price ka rujhan samajhne mein madad karte hain. Jab price in moving averages ke ooper rehti hai, toh aam tor par iska matlab hota hai ke market bullish hai, ya barh raha hai. Is waqt, dono short-term aur long-term moving averages yeh dikhate hain ke upward trend jaari reh sakta hai. Yeh traders ke liye ek positive sign hai jo USD/JPY pair mein mazeed izafa dekhna chahte hain.

Stochastic oscillator, jo ek aur ahem technical tool hai, bhi bullish signals de raha hai. Stochastic momentum ko napta hai, aur yeh dikhata hai ke market overbought (bohat zyada barh chuka hai) ya oversold (bohat zyada gir chuka hai) hai ya nahi. Is waqt, stochastic support kar raha hai ke market ke paas abhi bhi barhne ki gunjaish hai. In indicators ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair ke paas 143.68 ke resistance ko tor kar upward rally ko jaari rakhne ka achha chance hai. Magar, traders ko har achanak market tabdeeli par nazar rakhni chahiye, special central banks ke aane wale faislay jo price ko asar andaz kar sakte hain

Pair filhal 143.10 ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai jabke ye weekly peak 143.80 se retreat kar gaya hai, jo ke early US trading hours mein Monday ko dekha gaya tha. Is decline ka sabab softer US Dollar (USD) aur market sentiment ka safe-haven assets ki taraf shift hona hai. Traders ab Thursday ko aane wali weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke US ki economic aur employment conditions ke hawalay se nayi insights de sakti hai. Pair abhi takriban 143.14 ke level par trade kar raha hai.
**USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:**

Recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke June meeting minutes ke hawalay se kuch members mein rising import prices ko le kar concern barh raha hai, jo ke weak JPY ki wajah se ho rahe hain. Yeh inflationary pressures mein izafa kar sakte hain. Ek member ne highlight kiya ke cost-push inflation agar inflation expectations aur wage growth ko barha de to ye underlying inflation ko aur zyada exacerbate kar sakta hai. Iske ilawa, BoJ ka Quarterly Outlook Report jo ke Thursday ko release kiya gaya, is baat ka izhar karta hai ke wages aur inflation expectations se zyada barh sakti hain, jo ke inflation expectations aur tighter labor market ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne indicate kiya ke agar economic ya financial conditions deteriorate karti hain to Federal Reserve action lene ke liye tayyar hai. Goolsbee ne emphasize kiya ke Fed ka forward-looking stance hai aur agar conditions collectively aise develop hoti hain jo deterioration show karain to hum usay fix karain ge, jese ke unhon ne Reuters ko bataya. Yeh Fed ki commitment ko underscore karta hai ke wo possible economic challenges ko proactively address karain ge.

**Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Technically, pair apne descending channel ki upper boundary test kar raha hai, jo ke 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas 143.59 ke level par hai. Agar yeh resistance level break hota hai to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair 144.50 ke "throwback support turned resistance" ko challenge kar sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar pair apna upward trajectory maintain karne mein fail hota hai, to yeh descending channel ke lower boundary ko test kar sakta hai jo ke throwback support ke kareeb 140.21 ke level par hai, jo December mein observe kiya gaya tha

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen** Aaj ke din ke dusre hisson mein mere zikar ki gayi keematon ka koi test nahi hua. Volatility ki kami dekhne ko mili, jo data ki kami ki wajah se thi, jisne U.S. dollar ke upar uthane ki potential ko bhi kam kar diya. Aaj ki Asian session mein dollar par bechne ka bohot zyada pressure raha. Japan ke monetary base ke badlav ka report economists ke andazay se milta julta tha, lekin 10 saal ke bonds ki bechne mein demand ummeed se kam rahi. Badi trading companies ke market mein wapas aate hi dollar par pressure barh gaya. USD/JPY mein chal raha upar ki taraf ka correction jaldi khatam ho sakta hai, is liye bechne ki mauqay dhoondhna behtar hoga jo ke recent months mein dekhe gaye neeche ke trend ke saath mel khate hain. Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par zyada tawajjo dunga.

**Buy Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj main USD/JPY kharidne ka plan bana raha hoon jab yeh 146.44 par pohanchta hai, jo ke chart par hare rang ki line se dikhaya gaya hai. Iska maqsad 147.21 tak uthna hai, jo ke chart par mote hare rang ki line se hai. 147.21 ke ilaqe mein, main long positions se nikalne aur short positions kholne ka irada rakhta hoon, umeed hai ke wahan se 30-35 pips ki harkaat milegi. Humein aaj pair ke uthne ki umeed hai, lekin humein 146.00 ke ilaqe mein buyers ki activity ki zarurat hai. Ahmiyat: Kharidne se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur wahan se uth raha ho.

**Scenario No. 2:** Aaj main USD/JPY kharidne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 145.99 ke do musalsal tests hotay hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke neeche ke potential ko limit karega aur market ka wapas uthna ka sabab banega. Humein 146.44 aur 147.21 tak ki growth ki umeed hai.

**Sell Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj main USD/JPY bechne ka plan sirf 145.99 ke level ka test karne ke baad banata hoon, jo ke chart par laal line se dikhaya gaya hai, isse pair mein tezi se girawat aayegi. Bechne walon ka key target 145.41 hoga, jahan main short positions se nikal kar foran long positions kholne ka irada rakhta hoon, umeed hai wahan se 20-25 pips ki harkaat milegi. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, kyunki dollar ka bearish market abhi tak khatam nahi hua. Ahmiyat: Bechne se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche ho aur wahan se gir raha ho.

**Scenario No. 2:** Aaj main USD/JPY bechne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 146.44 ke do musalsal tests hote hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upar ki potential ko limit karega aur market ka wapas girna ka sabab banega. Humein 145.99 aur 145.41 tak ki girawat ki umeed hai.

USD/JPY pair ko mazbooti di hai. Yeh kamzori is speculation ko barhawa de rahi hai ke Bank of Japan mumkin hai ke umeed se pehle interest rates barha de, jo yen ko mazeed kamzor kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, US dollar abhi flat hai economic data ki kami ki wajah se. Magar, rising US fiscal yields kuch support provide kar rahe hain. Federal Reserve inflation aur 2024 mein lower tax rates ke imkanat ke hawale se ehtiyat barat raha hai, jo long run mein dollar par downward pressure daal sakte hain.
kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai.
Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai.
Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai,
USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho
USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend ka ishara karta hai

JPY ke pair ka tajziya kar rahe hain, yeh waqt ek kaabil-e-zikr neeche ki taraf trend mein hai, jo asal mein Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki mukhtalif monetary policies se Mutasir hai. USD/JPY ke haal hi ke girawat ki wajah zyada tar bazar mein 25 basis point (bps) rate cut ki umeedain hain, jo ke Fed ke aane wale September 17-18 ke meeting mein discuss ki jayein gi. Halankeh recent tezi dekhi gayi hai, lekin yeh umeedain US Dollar (USD) ko apne faiday ko mazeed barhane se rok rahi hain. Dosri taraf, bazar mein ehtiyaat ka rujhan Japanese Yen ki safe-haven asset ke tor par demand ko barhawa de raha hai, jo USD/JPY pair par mazeed dabao daal raha hai. Saath hi, BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne tasdeeq ki hai ke bank FY2025 tak interest rates ko barhane ka plan bana raha hai, jo Fed ke umeed ke mutabiq rate cut ke bilkul baraks hai, aur yeh pair ke neeche ki taraf trend ko mazeed barhawa de raha hai. Traders filhal ehtiyaat se kaam le rahe hain aur koi faisla karnay se pehle US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke Fed ke agle policy qadam ke hawale se ahem maloomat faraham karega aur USD/JPY pair ke short- term outlook ko mutasir karega. Technical Tajziya:
Technical lehaz se dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair mein waazeh bearish signals dekhnay ko mil rahe hain. Is waqt, yeh pair apne roz ke opening level 143.20 se neeche trade kar raha hai aur daily Pivot level 142.95 ke qareeb hai. Qeemat moving average trend line ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, jo ek ahem level hota hai jahan volume distribution aam tor par hoti hai, aur yeh strong selling pressure ko zahir karta hai. Agar qeemat 143.20 level ke upar chali jati hai, to mazeed izafa dekhne ko mil sakta hai jo resistance levels 143.69 aur 143.75 tak jasakta hai. Agar qeemat 142.95 level ke neeche girti hai, to umeed hai ke yeh aur neeche jaegi aur support levels 142.74 aur shayad 142.20 tak gir sakti hai. Yeh pair apne monthly Pivot level 146.24 aur weekly Pivot level 143.75 ke neeche bhi trade kar raha hai, jo ek corrective mood ko zahir karta hai. Hourly chart mein, yeh pair apni pehle ki range 143.69 se 142.14 ke neeche chala gaya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke sellers filhal bazar mein hawai hain. Lekin traders ko ek mumkin false breakout se ehtiyaat karni chahiye. Kul mila kar, technical indicators ek bearish outlook ko support karte hain, aur agar pair key support levels ke neeche trade karta raha, to mazeed girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai