USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

H-4 Timeframe Analysis
USD/JPY currency pair aaj thoda neeche ja rahi hai jab market ke shirkat daron ka tawajjo geo-political waqiat aur mazeed oil ke daamon ke barhne ki taraf mabni hai. Pair abhi ek nisf nek phase ka samna kar raha hai, lekin intervention ke khatrey hain jab tak pair 150 ke level ke neeche trade kar raha hai. Halankay aaj ka Hangman candle aik mazboot bearish signal tha, lekin momentum indicator abhi bhi mix signals dikhata hai. Average directional movement indicator 25 ke level ke neeche hai, jo dikhata hai ke trading market sideways hai. Doosri taraf, RSI ne apne equilibrium level 50 tak pohonch kar do aur aadhi mahinay se zyada guzar chuki hai, jo ek mazboot market rebound ko tasdeeq karta hai. Zyada ahmiyat se, stochastic ne apne moving averages ke upar chadh kar temporary tor par overbought territory mein chala gaya hai. Agar yeh movement tezi se barhta hai, toh yeh bullish signal consider kiya ja sakta hai.



Daily Timeframe Analysis

Agar sellers faisla karen ke buyers ki hichkichahat ka faida uthayen, toh woh pair ko 149.53 aur 147.46 areas ke neeche daba sakte hain. Uske baad, woh support area ko toorna chahenge, jo downtrend ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ko shamil karta hai, jo 146.65 par hai. Lekin unhein samajhdar 144.49 aur 144.99 area ko paar karne mein mushkil ho sakti hai, jo qareebi arsay mein market sentiment ke liye ahmiyat rakhta hai.

Warna, buyers pair ko buland karne ki koshish karenge bina Japani authorities ko gussa dilaye. Woh dobara all-time high 152.44 tak pohanchne ki koshish kar sakte hain. Agar unhein is level ko toorna hai, toh unhein ek naya uncha muqam hasil karne ka mauka mil sakta hai aur mukhtalif 155.94 high tak pohanch sakte hain. Toh, USDJPY sellers hal ke quiet trading session aur Japani sarkar ke intervention ke khula khatra ka faida uthane ki koshish kar rahe hain.

Yeh raha chart neeche:

Forex trading strategy
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! Kal, mujhe ummid thi keh US dollar/Japanese yen joda currency market me sab se zyada volatile hoga. Halankeh, Asian session me tejarati sargarmi sust thi, jabkeh Americi trade me, jodi sirf 151.50 ki kaledi muzahmati satah se ooper mustahkam hone me kamyab rahi, jo ek mazbut greenback ki wajah se hai. Iske alawa, yah abhi tak wazeh nahin hai keh yah 151.50 ka nishan muzahmat ya himayat ke taur par kam karta hai ya nahin. Aakhir ka, qimat ne us satah ke qarib drift kate hue bahut waqt guzara. Halankeh qimat us nishan ko paar kar gayi, lekin yah kisi bhi simt me raftar hasil karne me nakam rahi. Ab ham 152.05 ki pichli satah ko todne ki ek aur koshish dekh rahe hain.



Aaj, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh dollar/yen ki jodi muzahmat ke taur par kam karte hue pichle ek sal ki buland tarin satah ko paar kar jayegi aur faide ko 152.870 tak badha degi. Iski mazid tezi ka imkan mahdud rahega kiyunkeh Bank of Japan dobara currency ki harkiyat me mudakhlat kar sakta hai. Lehaza, joda 152.70 ke nishan se 150.35 ki kaledi support satah tak piche hat-te hue ek islah dekh sakta hai. Is satah ka breakout jodi ko 148.60 par wapas le jayega. Mutabadil taur par, agar qimat 152.70 se ooper toot jati hai to, dollar/yen jodi ke 152.40 tak badhne ki tawaqqo hai. Iske bad jodi ke manfi hone aur 150.35 ki satah tak fisalne ka imkan hai.

USDJPY currency pair, jo Amreeki dollar aur Japanese yen ke darmiyan exchange rate ko darust karta hai, forex market mein sab se zyada trade hone wale pairs mein se ek hai. Iski keemat ke amal ko ek anokha mizaj se mutasir hota hai jo ma'ashiyati nishanat se lekar saakhtinami waqiat aur market ki jazbat tak pohanchta hai. In factors ko samajhna traders ke liye zaroori hai jo mazeed tafreeqiyon se guzar rahe hain.

Economic indicators, USDJPY pair ki rah ka tasveer banane mein aham kirdar ada karte hain. Key indicators mein shamil hain:

Interest Rates: Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ki ma'ashiyati policies USD aur JPY ke darmiyan interest rate differentials par gehra asar daalte hain. Amreeka mein buland interest rates Japan ke muqablay mein USD ko JPY ke khilaf mazboot karte hain, aur ulta bhi.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): GDP reports Amreeka aur Japan ki ma'ashiyati sehat aur aghaz ke ihtemamat mein insights faraham karte hain. Amreeka mein mazboot GDP izafa aksar USDJPY exchange rate ko mazboot karte hain, Amreeki ma'ashiyat mein investoron ki itminan ka izhar karte hue.

Employment Data: Non-farm payrolls, bay rozgar darajat, aur dono mumalik mein naukriyon ki paidaish ke figures future monetary policy decisions ke baray mein market ke expectations ko mutasir karte hain. Amreeka mein mazid employment data USDJPY pair ko mazboot karte hain.

Inflation Indicators: Consumer Price Index aur Producer Price Index jaise inflation data central banks ke interest rates par asar daalte hain. Amreeka mein zyada inflation Japan ke muqablay mein USD ki qadar ko JPY ke khilaf barhate hain.

Geopolitical Events: Geopolitical events USDJPY pair par bhaari asar daalte hain apni asar investor sentiment aur risk appetite par. Key geopolitical factors shamil hain:

Trade Tensions: Amreeka aur Japan ke darmiyan trade disputes, ya phir aam global trade tensions, market uncertainty aur volatility ka sabab ban sakte hain. USDJPY exchange rate ko tariffs, trade negotiations, aur retaliatory measures ke asar ko dekhte hue investors assess karte hain.

Geopolitical Conflicts: Siyasi behtari, ilaqaai tensions, ya Asia-Pacific ilaqaon mein military conflicts market sentiment ko mutasir kar sakte hain aur safe-haven flows ko Japanese yen mein le ja sakte hain. Gehri geopolitical risks aksar USDJPY pair ko kamzor kar dete hain jabke investors JPY mein panah talash karte hain.

Market Sentiment: Market sentiment investors ki jama'ati nazar USDJPY pair par ko darust karta hai aur risk appetite, sentiment indicators, aur positioning jaise factors ko shamil karta hai.

Risk Appetite: USDJPY pair global risk sentiment ke tabadlaat par nihayat mutasir hai. Risk aversion ke doran, investors JPY jaise safe-haven assets ki taraf bhagte hain jo USDJPY pair ko kamzor kar deta hai. Ulta, behtar risk appetite USD ke liye demand ko barhata hai jo pair ko mazboot karta hai.

Sentiment Indicators: Sentiment indicators, surveys, consumer confidence indices, aur investor sentiment surveys, market participants ke nazar-e-tajarat aur ma'ashi markets par izharat faraham karte hain. Musbat sentiment USDJPY pair ko mazboot karta hai, jabke manfi sentiment iski performanc par asar daalte hain.

Positioning: Futures market mein speculative positioning aur institutional flows short-term movements par asar daal sakte hain USDJPY pair mein. Baray positions ya institutional investors ke positions ka unwinding exchange rate mein tezi se tabadlaat ko janam de sakta hai.

In conclusion, USDJPY exchange rate ko ma'ashiyati indicators, geopolitical events, aur market sentiment jaise mukhtalif factors mutasir karte hain. Traders ko in factors ko ma'loom rehna chahiye aur unke asar ko currency pair par mutla karna chahiye taake woh mutasir trading decisions le sakein. USDJPY price action ke peechay chal rahe dynamics ko samajh kar, traders forex market mein behtar taur par safar kar sakte hain aur trading opportunities ka faida utha sakte hain.

USD/JPY currency pair ka 151.31 ke sath darusti se barhna aik aham maqam hai jo kay aksar logon ke liye kafi aham hota hai. Yeh maqam aik mazi mein darust sabit hua hai aur aik mutasir raftar ke saath chal raha hai. Is waqt, is maqam ki wajah se market mein bharak utha hai aur log is line ko dhyan mein rakhte hue trading karte hain. Is maqam ki barhti hui ahmiyat mein kuch aham wajohat shamil hain. Pehli bat, yeh aik markazi maqam hai jo kay market ke dynamics ko samajhne mein madadgar sabit hota hai. Jab market is level tak pohanchta hai, to traders ka dhyan is par zyada hota hai aur woh is darusti ko samajhne ki koshish karte hain. Doosri bat, 151.31 ke sath darusti se barhna market ke liye aik aham confidence indicator hai. Jab yeh level paar hota hai, to yeh ek bullish sentiment ko darust karta hai aur traders ko yeh samajh mein aata hai ke market mein bullish momentum barh sakta hai. Iske ilawa, yeh maqam trading strategies ko tay karte waqt bhi ahem hota hai. Traders is level ko apne stop-loss orders ke liye istemal karte hain takay unki positions ko nuqsan se bachaya ja sake. Is tarah, yeh aik protective measure bhi sabit hota hai jo ke trading ke liye zaroori hai. Yeh maqam market ke liye ek aham psychological level bhi hai. Jab market is level ko paar karta hai, to yeh aksar ek psychological barrier ko toorna hota hai aur traders ka confidence boost hota hai. Magar yeh darusti barhne ki koi guarantee nahi hai. Market dynamics hamesha badalte rehte hain aur kisi bhi waqt is level ko paar karna ya girna mumkin hai. Is liye, traders ko market ko chundh kar trading karte hue apne risk management ko bhi yaad rakhna chahiye. Yeh sabhi factors mil kar yeh maqam USD/JPY currency pair ke liye ahem banate hain aur iski darusti ko barqarar rakhne mein madadgar sabit ho sakti hai.

Market dynamics mein, darustgi ahmiyat rakhti hai, khaaskar jab trading maneuvers ke liye strategic levels ka tayun karna ho. 151.818 par mojood, aik ahem resistance point ubhar raha hai, jo tajziyaan karne wale traders ki dilchaspi ko kheenchta hai. Agla hafta ek moqabley ka waqt lekar a raha hai jab khareedne wale aur yeh moayana ho ga ke kya yeh muqarrar band ki tajziyaan ker sakte hain. Drame ke khulne ka pehla manzar dekhte hue, do mukhtalif manazir nazar aate hain jo kahani ko shakl denay wale hain. Pehla manzar ek faisla shikan karte hue ubhar kar samne aata hai, jab khareedne wale apni taqat ko jama kar ke mojooda resistance ko paar karne ke liye tayar hotay hain. Agar yeh mansooba sakht hota hai, toh akhiraat ke muamlaat ki kai sambhavanayen saamne aati hain, jo keinse ke ek kheenchne wale maidan ki tarah northward phelte hain. Is manzar mein, resistance level ke upar ke price consolidation ka imkaan buland hota hai, jo ke bullish momentum ke ek mumkin pehloo ka ishaara deta hai. Ankhain muntazir hain, traders khud ko anay wale tableau ke liye tayyar karte hain, apni strategic maqasid ke saath hamrah aik raah ka tasavvur kar rahe hain. Is behtareen tawun ke douran, 156.000 ke darwaze par ek ahem waqt samne aata hai. Yahan, nazdeek hone wale resistance ke darmiyan, trade setups ke liye aik mawaqe samne aata hai. Sabr aur ehtiyaat traders ke liye zaroori hoti hai jab wo ek zahir pattern ki formation ka muntazir hote hain, jo ke mustaqbil ke market movements ke shakalat ka naqsha wazeh karta hai. Lekin, is nazdeeki ufq ke sath bari hawaon ka bhi manzar hai. Apni nigahen mazeed northward pher lete hue, himmatmand traders door ke zyada maqsood ko tasavvur karte hain, jo ke 160.400 par muntazim hai. Lekin, buland maqsoodon ke aitmaad mein, amliyat ko sabqatiyat milti hai. Is door tak ke safar mein taweel imkaanat ki taraf aur market dynamics aur siyasi jazbaat ki bedardi par mushtamil hai.

Pichle trading haftay mein, Wednesday ke alawa, jo ke chand ghar ghairati thi, aam tor par side mein movement tha. USD/JPY currency pair ke price quotes ke nazariye ke mabain par hamare tajziyat ke mutabiq kya tha? Haan, neechay ki taraf ek girawat ka rukh tha jis se 151.00 ke support level tak pohancha, lekin yeh us se oopar se neeche tak nahin phaancha. To yahan bhi, tajziyat ke mutabiq sab kuch smooth nahin nikla. Yahaan, meri nazariyat ke mutabiq, kuch bhi tabdeel nahin hua hai. Hum 151.00 ke qareebi mazboot support level ke oopar se neeche ki taraf ek girawat ka intezar bhi kar rahe hain.
Yahan sawal paida hota hai: kya main apne trading operations ko is USD/JPY trading instrument ke zariye chalaoon ga? Main is nazariyat ke mutabiq beshak yahan sau feesad per kaam karonga. Agar Japan mein ma'ashiyati data niklay to Asian session mein achi harkat ho sakti hai, lekin is waqt mein main neend mein hoon ga. To sab kuch mere saamne guzar jayega. Bazar ki naqabil-e-peshgi harkat ko dekhtay hue, main baar baar galat faislay ke asar par manfi waqiyat ka sochta rehta hoon jab paisay lagane ka faisla hota hai. Lekin main dividenton ka bhi khayal nahi bhoolta, jo ke sarmaya dari se samajhdar aur mustahkam khatra lay kar aata hai. Is liye, apne dum par 151.11 ke darwazay se bahar kadam rakhne ka faisla kiya.
Ek izaafay ke baad, hamesha ek giravat hoti hai. Is qaid ko jaan kar, mujhe zaroori samjha jata hai ke trading ko 151.55 par rukna chahiye. Aur agar aisa ho bhi, to munafa 151.55 se lagaye gaye stop se panch guna zyada hoga. Hum shayad aaj apne maqsoodah maqsad tak na pohanchein. Main mamla shaam mein band karonga, aur ise kal tak nahi chhodonga. Koi bhi khabar sab ko gussa dilati hai aur bazar mein bad-awli paida karti hai.

USD/JPY ki keemat bhi kharidaron ke liye faidemand hai. Kyunki kal, US ISM Manufacturing data sakht musbat tha. Aaj, keemat filhal 151.72 ke darje ke ird gird ghoom rahi hai. Is halat mein, mojooda juzvi rawayya nihayat kharidari ke janib mael hai, jo ek maqboli raftar ki intehai manzil ki taraf ishara deti hai. Ye rawayya, tez bazar ki mushahidat ke sath jura shrewd tajziya, ek mawafiq mauqa faraham karta hai taqatwar positioning ke liye. 20 se 25 pips ka hadood intikhab kar ke, karobarion ko munafa ka pur-asar istemal karne ki ihtiyaqat maujooda bazar ke dynamics ke darmiyan se faida utha sakte hain, faide bharti trends ko fawaid uthate hue sath hi khatra kam karte hue. USD/JPY ke case mein, bazar ke halat ka waqtan-fa-waqt qeyas ka asooli hissa banata hai, jo kefiyat ke tabdil hone par tayyar aur jaldi qadam uthane mein madad faraham karta hai. Aur, khabron ke waqeyat ko mustaqil tor par tajziya karna aur unke mumkin asarat ki wazahat, maali bazarat ki tanzimi tabdeeliyon mein ahamiyat ki pehchaan ke saath saath, jahan badalne wale halaat ko qaboo mein rakhna kamiyabi ka zaroori shart hai. Mazeed, USD/JPY se mutaliq anay wale khabron ki aghaz baad mein mazeed tabdeeliyan layegi. Amooman, USD/JPY ka bazar 151.72 ke darje ke ird gird ghoomta hai jo ke ek resistance zone hai. Is liye, kharidaron ko ehtiyaat se karobar karna chahiye aur naye updates ke mutabiq. Is ke ilawa, taza hadsat aur unke asarat par mustaid reh kar, karobarion ko apne aap ko maqami aur farogh ke manazir mein position dena chahiye, bazar ki foronat aur raftar se manzar-e-amal mein shrewdness aur agahi ke sath. Aakhir mein, mojooda maali manzar ko chunninda nazar, wasee tajziya aur mustaqbil ke liye strategy ki zarurat hai. Hatta ke, kharidari ke janib mojooda raghbati ko qabool karte hue, diligent bazar ki tajziya aur khabro ke tajarbay ke zariye agahiyat ke saath, karobarion ko hamesha tabdeel hone wale bazar mein kamiyabi ke liye tayyar rehne ki qabil eitimad mojood hai. Umeed hai ke USD/JPY ka bazar rate aaj aur kal bhi kharidaron ke liye faidemand rahega.

USD/JPY



Mujhe yaad nahi ke maine aapko bataya ya nahi, lekin haal hi mein Japanese Ministry of Finance se ek official statement aayi thi verbal interventions ke shuru hone ke baare mein (main yeh samajhta hoon ke jald hi aur bhi isi tarah ke measures aayenge): "Yen ki mojooda kamzori asal indicators ke mutabiq nahi hai aur yeh clearly speculation ke natijay mein hai. Hum excessive hesitation ke khilaaf munasib measures lenge, kisi bhi options ko exclude nahi karte." Iska matlab hai ke agar yen aur bhi kamzor hota hai, toh currency intervention hoga. Aur woh kamzor hoga, kyunki financial world ke monsters yen ko provoke karenge aur yen ko bechenge, yani is pair ke price tag ko maximum tak le jayenge. Yeh wazeh hai ke yeh zyada der tak nahi chalega (pehli baar Japanese ko 700 points ka nuksan hua tha, main sochta hoon is baar kam hoga). Chhote mein, main apne akhri paison ko is instrument ke sale ke liye nikalne ki koshish karunga.


USD/JPY H4

Ab baat karte hain USD/JPY pair ke H4 time frame ki. Agar din ka balance 151.70 ko break nahi karta, toh main iska reversal assume karunga aur support H1 150.40 ki taraf decline ki taraf, breakout ho sakta hai, lekin hum definitely reversal nahi milenge, hume 150.15 ko break karne ki zarurat hogi, phir woh iska reversal kar sakte hain, warna growth support H1 150.40 ya difficult level 150.15 se continue ho sakti hai 153.10 ki taraf, aur medium-term main target 156.25 ki taraf. Agar rollback ke dauran woh din ka balance 151.70 ko break kar sakte hain, toh main further growth 152.05 ki taraf assume karunga, wahan se pair 151.05 ki taraf roll back ho sakta hai naye din ka balance tak aur phir uss taraf se 153.10 ki taraf move kar sakta hai, jahan main ek bada octate bhi rule out nahi karta hoon, jo ke already towards 156.25 medium-term target ki taraf hoga.




USD/JPY H1

Ab hum baat karte hain USD/JPY pair ke H1 time frame ki. Jaisa ke maine pehle kaha tha, haal hi mein Japanese Ministry of Finance se ek official statement aayi thi verbal interventions ke shuru hone ke baare mein (main yeh samajhta hoon ke jald hi aur bhi isi tarah ke measures aayenge): "Yen ki mojooda kamzori asal indicators ke mutabiq nahi hai aur yeh clearly speculation ke natijay mein hai. Hum excessive hesitation ke khilaaf munasib measures lenge, kisi bhi options ko exclude nahi karte." Iska matlab hai ke agar yen aur bhi kamzor hota hai, toh currency intervention hoga. Aur woh kamzor hoga, kyunki financial world ke monsters yen ko provoke karenge aur yen ko bechenge, yani is pair ke price tag ko maximum tak le jayenge. Yeh wazeh hai ke yeh zyada der tak nahi chalega (pehli baar Japanese ko 700 points ka nuksan hua tha, main sochta hoon is baar kam hoga). Chhote mein, main apne akhri paison ko is instrument ke sale ke liye nikalne ki koshish karunga.

Aaj ke maali manzar mein, USD/JPY currency pair apne aap ko ek nichey ki manzil ki taraf jaate hue paye hain. Ye giravat sarasar woh barhti hui tawajju hai jise investors geopolitics ke waqiaat aur mazeed tail ke prices mein dobarah uthne ka dar se de rahe hain. Is be-khabar mahol ke saath, ye pair abhi ek halat-e-hawadis mein phans gaya hai, jo ke global market forces ki uljhan mein dabi hui hai. Jab dunya ke stage par siyasi tensions dhimi ho rahe hain, to investors currency markets par in ke asraat ka izafa karte ja rahe hain. United States dollar (USD) aur Japanese yen (JPY) ke darmiyan nazuk ta'alluqat is jazbaat ko darust karte hain, jab ke market participants in do bara currencies par siyasi tabdeeliyon ke asraat ka wazan utha rahe hain. Aise mahol mein, har USD/JPY pair ka hilne se sirf aik adad nahi hota, balke yeh global stage par unfold hone wale bara kahani ka ek afsar hai.
USD/JPY pair mein mojooda downtrend ko mazeed barhate hue tail ke prices ka dar banata hai. Jabke siyasi tensions aksar energy markets ke saath mulaqat karte hain, to kisi bhi tail ki farahmi ya tajziya mein koi rukawat currency pairs jaise ke USD/JPY mein ronak paida kar sakti hai. Jab tail ke prices dobara barhne ka khatra dikhate hain, to investors mehngai, maali taraqqi aur aakhir mein currency ke mol par asraat ka intezar karte hain. Global maaliyat ke paicheedgi mein, har USD/JPY pair ka har harkat ahmiyat rakhti hai. Ye market ke jazbaat ka ek peigham hai, jo ke investors ki yaksar hawadis aur maali shurauti shiraiyat ko samajhne ki koshish mein numainda hai. Aaj ke uncertaintiy ke manzar ke darmiyan, USD/JPY pair ki nichey ki manzil hamare maali markets mein hosla-afzai ke saath dar ka jhalkna dikhata hai

In tawazunat ke darmiyan, market participants har bar harkat ko tawajju se dekh rahe hain, maazi ke trends ko samajhne aur agle harkat ko tay karne ki koshish karte hue. Chahe siyasi waqiaat se le kar tail ke market ki dynamics tak, USD/JPY pair ka rukh investors ke liye global maaliyat ke hamesha badalte manzar mein ek aham nishaan hai. Jaise ke din guzarta hai, USD/JPY pair ka naseeb tawajju ki bal per mohtaaj hai, market forces aur siyasi waqiaat ke lafani tabadlon ke qaboo mein

Is currency pair ke liye, wave ka dhancha bhi ek chadhav ke tarteeb mein hai, aur MACD indicator khareedne ki zone mein hai aur apne signal line se oopar hai. Pichle haftay bhar, keemat ek taraf ki simt mein rahi, 2022 aur 2023 ke unchaayiyon par qaim rahi. Achha, 2024 ke zyada se zyada. Magar main sakhti se shaq karta hoon ke teesri saal se yeh keemat is 151.90 ke unchaayi se neeche nahi jayegi aur ise update nahi karegi. Yeh be-sabab nahi hai ke wo is se door nahi jaati, balki is ke baghair kharri hai. Shayad puri hafte mein sirf muqami positions bana rahe the. Aur agar bohot si khareedne ki positions hain, to kuch na kuch farokht bhi hain, aur keemat sirf beghair farokhtiyon ko jhatka diye baghair neeche nahi jayegi. Kal, din mein humne phir se keemat ko jitna ho sake upar dhakka diya. Zyadatar, maximum aur minimum ke bahar nikalne ka intezar hai, jahan tak main samajhta hoon, yeh Fibonacci grid ke target ke mutabiq level 161.8 tak, jo pehle wave par nichhe se chadhaya gaya, wahan aik palat ho sakta hai, yeh aik mumkin farokht zone hoga. Ek kam waqt mein, masalan, aik ghante mein, farokht ke liye ek banawat ka intezar kiya ja sakta hai, chadhne ke kinaray par aaina level, taake sahara tabdeel ho kar muqabla ban jaye. Magar yeh koi yakeen nahi ke hum wahan se neeche jayenge, shayad ek taqatwar oopar ki taraf guzara tayyar ho raha hai ek aur mahine ke liye, masalan, yeh yen hai, yeh wo cheez hai jo pasand karti hai. Din bhar, main sirf upar ki dakhilayen ghor karta hoon, agar 20-30 points ki chhotti doori bachi hai toh, khaas kar crown ko update hone se pehle thodi aur peeche ho sakta hai. Isko upar ki taraf dakhil hone ke liye istemal karna chahiye jab ek mutabiq formation din ke andar bani hai aur, agar plus mein hai, toh 151.90 se bahar nikalne par yeh dhaancha nuskha jaat chhodna chahiye, kyunki yeh sirf thoda sa is unchaayi ko chhed sakta hai. Agar hum maan lein ke hum maximum se guzarenge nahi, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, toh main farokht bhi nahi ghoronga. Aaj ki khabrein zyadatar kamzor aur darmiyan hain, main inhein ghor nahi karta, hum US ka mazdoori market mein khule huwe vacancies ke tadad par 17-00 Moscow waqt mein ehmiyat denge

Daily Time Frame:

Aaj hum ne China ke dollar system se mumkinah rukh ka ibtedai ishara dekha, jo ke mukhtalif corporations ke dollar framework se nikalne ki shuruaat ka signal hai. Halankeh yeh tabdeeli waqt le gi, lekin hamara tawajjo ane wale hafton ya do hafton par mabni hai. Khas taur par, jodi ne 151.80 ke level ke neeche trading ki taraf phir se ruju kiya hai, EMA20 tak 151.20 tak nahi pahunch paya jab hum asian trading range mein dakhil hotay hain. Agle support level EMA50 ke 151.90 ke aas paas hai, jisse zahir hota hai ke bechne ke liye is level ke neeche mustaqil consolidation ki zarurat hai. Mojooda kharidne ke moqay sauda afzai ke liye khatar naak hain, jisme ek taqreeban 151.15 ke aas paas ka maksad hai. Ham aap sab ko munafa mand trading ki kamyabiyan mubarak dete hain.

4-Hourly Time Frame:

USD/JPY jodi ke be inteha barhte hue raaste ne mujhe yeh sawal karna shuru kiya hai ke yeh kab apni uthati hui raah ko rukaygi - aaj 151.60 ke ilaqe mein saal bharo ke record bulandiyon ka toofan dekha, jise dekhte hue taqreeban 151.30 ki taraf taveel musafati ke sath surkhyaat milti rahi. Magar, is taveel musafati ke baad ek murna qaim hua, jodi ko 151.45 ke mark tak le gaya. Yeh taveel musafati ka murna aham taur par US dollar ke apne mukhtalif ashaab ke muqablay mein maqboliyat mein kami se hota hai. Lekin 151.50 ilaqa mumkinah tor par intehaai support ka kaam karega, jise aage ki tarakki ke liye maqami taur par taameer kiya ja sakta hai. Halaanki, yen ki ghair mutawaazin hone ki wajah se, main 150.80 ke uss level ke upar mazeed taraqqi ke liye khuli hoon, haan lekin main is level par farokht ke moqay ko talashna chata hoon. Agar market is rukh ko pohanchti hai aur ek ghante se zyada is par rehti hai, to agla maksad mutawajjah karne ka zaviye mein tabdeel ho sakta hai.

US Dollar / Yen instrument ki market situation ka tajziya aur tajwez. 4 ghanton ka time frame.

Chaliye, teen mashhoor technical analysis indicators - Extended Regression StopAndReverse, RSI, aur MACD - ka istemal karke instrument ki mojooda harkat ko jaldi se jaldi tajziya karte hain, jo ek mustaqbil trading ke natije ko darust andaazi karne mein madadgar hotay hain. Yaad rakhen ke market mein dakhil hone ke faisla karne ke liye, tamam indicators ko ek hi signals dena chahiye. Zyada se zyada munasib munafa hasil karne ke liye, hum Fibonacci grid ke correction levels ka istemal karke position se bahar nikalne ka maqam intikhaab karenge.

Diye gaye chart par, aap foran note kar sakte hain ke pehle darja ka regression line (golden dotted line), jo muntakhib time frame (time-frame H4) par instrument ka rukh aur haalat dikhata hai, uttar ki taraf 30% se zyada rukh kar raha hai, jo uttar ki taraf mukhtalif trend movement ko zor se zahir karta hai. Nonlinear regression channel (ghurrha ya sorakh rangon wali linein) seedha ho gaya hai aur golden upward trend line ko neechay se oopar cross kiya hai aur ab ek uttar ki taraf shumali rukh dikhata hai.

Keemat ne linear regression channel ke laal resistance line 2nd LevelResLine ko cross kiya lekin 151.766 ki maximum qeemat (HIGH) tak pahunchi, uske baad keemat ne apna izafa rok diya aur qaaimi tor par giraawat shuru ki. Ab mojooda dor mein instrument 151.679 ki qeemat ke star par trade ho raha hai. Sab se upar zikr kiye gaye sab kuch ke buniad par, main umeed karta hoon ke market ke qeemat ki wapsi aur consolidation channel line 2-nd LevelResLine (148.502) FIBO level 38.2% ke neechay hoga aur phir uttarward move kare ga golden average line LR of the linear channel 147.731, jo ke FIBO level 23.6% ke mutabiq hai. Abhi ke waqt par RSI (14) aur MACD oscillators bayruttar signals dete hain ke instrument ko overbought darust kiya gaya hai kyun ke wo munafa kamane ke liye aik behtareen farokht transaction ko mukammal karne ke liye aamadah hain.

#USD/JPY H4

USD/JPY

Pichle hafte, USD/JPY 149.20 tak gir gaya, lekin jaldi se bahal ho gaya. Shuruati bias mainly is hafte neutral hai. Neeche, 150.87 ke tootne se 140.25 se upar ki giraavat ko 151.89/93 tak ki mukhya resistance tak dobara shuruat hogi. Doosri taraf, 4 ghante ka MACD mein bearish divergence ki sthiti ko madde nazar rakhte hue, 149.20 ka taaqatwar tootna 150.87 par ek qareebi top ko tasdiq karega. Ek gehri girawat ko ek sahara disha (vartaman 148.33) ke roop mein dekha jaayega, jaise ki ek sudharak movement. Bade taur par, 140.25 se utar chadav ko 127.20 (2023 ki kam) se punah aarambh kiya gaya samjha jaata hai. 151.89/0.93 ki resistance zones ka tay pakad, is bullish scenario ko tasdiq karega, aur pair ko, 127.20 se 151.89 tak, aur 140.25 se 151.89 tak, 155.50 ki disha mein target karega. Halaanki, 148.79 ki resistance ke tootne se sahayata ki sthiti ko is bullish scenario ko der kar dega, aur 151.89 se ek aur neeche ki taraf sudharak pattern ko lamba karega.

Market dynamics ke kshetra mein, raaste ka safar December se ek spasht nirdharit channel ke andar ek oopriyaan utaari gai hai. Niche ke seema ka samayik bhang hone ke bawajood, channel ki seemaon mein vapas aana iska dhrudhtam ko darshata hai aur pradhan bullish trend ka jaari rehne ki sambhaavana ko sujhata hai. Aage, anyaary vigyapan ke liye kafi sthan lagta hai, haal ke bazaar gatividhi uthaan dabaav ki vapas aane ki sambhaavana ko darshata hai. Iske alawa, nichli seema ka haal hilane se traders ko ek akarshak pravesh bindu pradaan hota hai jo aage badhte hue abhaar ke roop mein tripe profit ki sambhaavana tak le sakta hai. [M30]USD/JPY Is context mein dynamics ka vishleshan pramukh bazaar bhavna ko aur upar ki or gati mein aur bhi aage badhane ki samarthan karta hai. Ek sthapit badhne wale channel pattern, saath hi nichli seemaon ka mahatvapoorn jhoota parikshan, ek bullish gatividhi ke liye ek anukool vatavaran ko vishwasghat karta hai. Halaanki, sawadhani ki avashyakta hai kyonki bazaar dynamics mein avishvashniye pan bane rehte hain. Halaanki vartamaan bhavishya ko upar ki or badhane ka maan rahta hai, lekin anjan ghatnaayein is raaste ko badal sakti hain. Bahari karan jaise ki rajneetik ghatnaayein, arthik deta prakaashit hone, aur nivesh bhavna mein parivartan, bazaar disha par prabhav daal sakte hain, jise samjhane ke liye ek samvedansheel approach ki zaroorat hai.

USD/JPY Ka Technical Analysis
H-1 Timeframe Analysis

Pichle trading haftay mein, Japanese Yen ne 151.80 ke neeche ek bohot hi tang range mein trade kiya, jahan mazboot resistance tha jise wo kamyabi se paar nahi kar saka. Is mein duo ka vikas ka koi hisaab nahi hai. Is dauraan, price chart confidently super-trend green zone mein bana hua hai, jo buyers ka continued control confirm karta hai.

Aaj ki technical nazar se, H-1 time frame chart ko nazdeek se dekhte hue, hum dekhte hain ki USD/JPY ne 150.80 ke aas paas mazboot support dhoondha hai, jo ek positive momentum bounce off the simple moving average ko support karta hai. Dusri taraf, hum dekhte hain ki 14-day Momentum indicator chhoti dair mein negative signals produce karne laga hai. 151.85 resistance ke upar ka break encourage karta hai, jisse 152.20 aur 152.80 tak pahunchne ke chances badh jaate hain, jabki price 150.80 ke neeche hai, pair ke downward path ko khatam karte hue 149.80 ka target hai.



H-4 Timeframe Analysis

Price abhi ek kam-volatility environment mein smooth taur par trade kar rahi hai aur har haftay neutral hai. Iske alawa, mukhya support areas abhi test nahi hue hain aur unka integrity maintain kar rahe hain, jo ek upward vector ko favor karta hai. Lekin, yeh mumkin hai ki ek rebound hoga, aur pair ne neeche modne ka aghaz kar diya hai, jo ke bhi bohot sambhav hai. Upar ki taraf ki trend ko confirm karne wala mukhya scenario 150.76 level ka retest hoga, jo is waqt mukhya support area hai, aur quotes ne agli uchhaai shuru karne se pehle girna pad sakta hai. Agar is area ko safalta se roka gaya aur uske baad se palat gaya, toh agle wave ko develop karne ka mauka milega, jiska target hoga 152.85 aur 153.72 ke beech ka area.

Agar support break hota hai aur price 149.19 ke reversal level ke neeche jaati hai, toh current scenario ko cancel karne ka signal mil jaayega. Chart neeche dekhein:

Jab bazaar mein kisi moolya attains significance, toh traders ise aksar market ki taqat ya kamzori ka ishara samajhte hain, ager rukh ki harkat dekhi jaye. Misal ke tor par, agar USD/JPY 151.31 se oopar with conviction rises karta hai, toh yeh ek strong signal ho sakta hai ke market ki taqat barh rahi hai. Jab bhi aisa hota hai, traders ki nigaahen tarraqi ko dekhte hue puri taraf mudaamalat ki taraf jati hain.

Market ki movement ko samajhna traders ke liye mushkil ho sakta hai, lekin jab kisi moolya mein significant change ata hai, toh yeh unhe ek idea deta hai ke market ki halaat kis disha mein ja rahe hain. Agar USD/JPY 151.31 ke oopar rise karta hai, toh yeh ek bullish signal ho sakta hai, yaani ke market ki taqat mein izafa ho raha hai aur traders ko yeh indicate karta hai ke woh long positions le sakte hain.

Lekin, doosri taraf, agar USD/JPY 151.31 ke nichay gir jata hai, toh yeh ek bearish signal ho sakta hai, jo ke market ki kamzori ka ishara hai. Aise maqasid par, traders short positions le sakte hain ya phir apne positions ko protect karne ke liye risk management strategies istemal kar sakte hain.

Yeh sabhi faislay market analysis aur traders ki experience par mabni hote hain. Jab bhi koi moolya significant level ko paar karta hai, toh traders ke paas do raaste hote hain: ya toh woh uss direction mein trade karte hain jise moolya ne indicate kiya hai, ya phir woh cautious rehte hain aur aur aur tafteesh ki taraf mudaamalat karte hain.

Isi tarah se, market mein moolyon ki movement ko samajhna ek crucial hissa hai trading ka. Jab koi moolya significant level ko paar karta hai, toh yeh traders ke liye ek signal hota hai ke woh kis direction mein ja rahe hain aur kis tarah ke mudaamalat ki ja sakti hai. Lekin, yeh bhi yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke har trade apne apne risk ke saath ata hai, aur har faisla dhyan se lena chahiye.