USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY ka Fundamental Analysis
Jab Wednesday ko Jibun Banking Services PMI figures ka elan hua, to USD/JPY exchange rate ne USD ke muqablay mein momentum barhaya. Index ko August mein initial projection 54.0 se revise karke 53.7 kar diya gaya. Halankeh carrier business ne 7 mahine se growth dikhayi hai, July ke recent statistics mein koi tabdili nahi hui. Traders ne US employment data, khaaskar August ke non-farm payrolls (NFP), par jo early warning di, usne dollar ko direction di. Ye baat Fed ke rate reductions ke timing aur scale par bhi insights de sakti hai. Wednesday ko USD/JPY takreeban 145.40 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ka analysis market mein bearish trend dikhata hai kyunki 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai.
USD/JPY ka exchange rate filhal 145.68 par trade kar raha hai. USD/JPY pair ke liye support shayad August 5 ko paaye gaye saat mahine ke low 141.69 ke aas paas ho. Uske baad key support 140.25 ke aas paas hai. USD/JPY pair ka downward bias hai aur yeh "bearish engulfing" chart pattern dikhata hai. 145.33 par turning line USD/JPY ke liye pehli support line hogi, jo ke downward trend mein hai aur kam se kam resistance ki taraf move kar rahi hai. Agar yeh block ho gayi, to prices 145s tak pohnchengi aur phir August 26 ke daily low, jo ke 143.45 par hai, tak pohnchne ki koshish karengi. Yeh Bulls ke liye August 5 ke low 141.69 se pehle aakhri defense line hogi. 21-day EMA ke 146.73 tak pohnchne se pehle, USD/JPY pair shayad 9-day EMA ke 145.63 ke paas resistance ka samna karega. Is level ke upar, psychological level 150.00 accessible hona chahiye, saath hi 154.50 par jo resistance ban chuka hai, pehle jo assistance tha.

Pair filhal 143.10 ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai jabke ye weekly peak 143.80 se retreat kar gaya hai, jo ke early US trading hours mein Monday ko dekha gaya tha. Is decline ka sabab softer US Dollar (USD) aur market sentiment ka safe-haven assets ki taraf shift hona hai. Traders ab Thursday ko aane wali weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke US ki economic aur employment conditions ke hawalay se nayi insights de sakti hai. Pair abhi takriban 143.14 ke level par trade kar raha hai.

**USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:**

Recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke June meeting minutes ke hawalay se kuch members mein rising import prices ko le kar concern barh raha hai, jo ke weak JPY ki wajah se ho rahe hain. Yeh inflationary pressures mein izafa kar sakte hain. Ek member ne highlight kiya ke cost-push inflation agar inflation expectations aur wage growth ko barha de to ye underlying inflation ko aur zyada exacerbate kar sakta hai. Iske ilawa, BoJ ka Quarterly Outlook Report jo ke Thursday ko release kiya gaya, is baat ka izhar karta hai ke wages aur inflation expectations se zyada barh sakti hain, jo ke inflation expectations aur tighter labor market ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne indicate kiya ke agar economic ya financial conditions deteriorate karti hain to Federal Reserve action lene ke liye tayyar hai. Goolsbee ne emphasize kiya ke Fed ka forward-looking stance hai aur agar conditions collectively aise develop hoti hain jo deterioration show karain to hum usay fix karain ge, jese ke unhon ne Reuters ko bataya. Yeh Fed ki commitment ko underscore karta hai ke wo possible economic challenges ko proactively address karain ge.

**Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Technically, pair apne descending channel ki upper boundary test kar raha hai, jo ke 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas 143.59 ke level par hai. Agar yeh resistance level break hota hai to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair 144.50 ke "throwback support turned resistance" ko challenge kar sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar pair apna upward trajectory maintain karne mein fail hota hai, to yeh descending channel ke lower boundary ko test kar sakta hai jo ke throwback support ke kareeb 140.21 ke level par hai, jo December mein observe kiya gaya tha.

Jumay ke din, JPY ne US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein 14-mahinon ki neechey ki had ko chua, aur 140.41 tak gir gaya. Yeh girawat ek wasee market trend ko zahir karti hai jahan JPY ko pressure ka samna hai, jo ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki monetary policy mein tabdeelion ki wajah se ho raha hai. BoJ ka hawkish stance ikhtiyar karna aur 0.25% ke qareeb interest rates barhane ka faisla Yen carry trade ke khaatma ka sabab bana. Is ke ilawa, "Yenterventions" ke zariye Yen ko mazboot karne ki koshishon ne is currency ko Greenback ke muqable mein multi-decade lows se 12.5% se zyada ka izafa dikhaya.
Yen ka halya sentiment monetary policy, market interventions, aur global economic conditions ka aik pechida khel hai. JPY ka historic lows se recover karna aur USD ke muqable mein is ka halya performance currency markets ki dynamic nature ko zahir karta hai, jo ke policymakers ke liye challenges paish karta hai.

Bank of Japan ka Ehtiyaati Rawaaya Interest Rates ke Hawalay Se

Japan ki monetary policy ka mustaqbil ab bhi pechida hai, jahan BoJ ke officials ne mazeed rate hikes ka imkaan zahir kiya hai. Lekin, market mein barhati hui volatility ke jawab mein unka rawaya zyada ehtiyaati ho gaya hai. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne zor diya ke BoJ market developments ko qareebi tor par dekhte rahega, magar monetary policy ke faislay BoJ ke daira-e-ikhtiyar mein rahenge. Yeh ehtiyaati stance economic growth ko barhawa dene aur currency stability ko qaim rakhne ke darmiyan aik balance ka izhar hai.

Analysts ka Rai ke Hawalay Se

Julius Baer ke halya tajziya ke mutabiq, BoJ ko abhi ke levels ke ilawa mazeed baray rate hikes karne ki zaroorat nahi hogi. Analyst ka khayal hai ke jab market conditions mazid stable ho jayengi, toh 500-basis point interest rate ka faraq jo JPY aur USD ke darmiyan hai, currency movements ko mutasir karega. Magar analyst yeh nahi samajhta ke qareebi mustaqbil mein Yen mein koi khaas izafa dekha jayega

se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi. Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai. Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai. Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai, USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend

USD / JPY: Rozana Trading Ke Liye
Mashwara



Bears apni qeemat ko kal ke muqablay mein kho rahe hain, jis se aisa lagta hai ke bulls ab control le rahe hain. Aaj, bulls 142.81 ke level par actively trading kar rahe hain, jo ke strong momentum aur acha position dikhata hai potential gains ke liye. Market ka ye tabdeeli bullish trend ko darshata hai, khaaskar jab United States Dollar is hafte mein kuch strength dikhata hai. Dollar ki ye strength bullish trend ko support karti hai. In observations ke madde nazar, meri prediction aur recommendation hai ke buy entry par ghoor kiya jaye jiska target goal 143.45 ke level par set kiya jaye. Ye target current market conditions aur recent trading sessions mein dekhe gaye upward movement ke sath align karta hai.

Aakhri baat, market ko technical aur fundamental analysis dono ke zariye thoroughly analyze karna zaroori hai. Technical analysis support aur resistance levels, trend lines, aur doosri patterns ko identify karne mein madad karta hai jo future price movements ko samajhne mein madadgar hote hain. Indicators jaise moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), aur MACD ka istemal trend ki strength aur direction ko samajhne ke liye kiya jata hai. Ye tools enter aur exit trades ka waqt samajhne mein madad karte hain, taake informed decisions liye ja sakein.

Bulls ko yeh bhi samajhna chahiye ke fundamental analysis bhi market ko samajhne mein ek aham kirdar ada karti hai. Economic reports, central bank announcements, aur geopolitical developments par nazar rakhna zaroori hai taake United States Dollar ki strength aur market par uske asar ko samjha ja sake. Maslan, positive economic data ya favorable policy decisions dollar ki value ko barhawa de sakte hain, jo ke bullish trend ko support karta hai. Lekin, negative news ya economic uncertainties market behavior ko affect kar sakti hain aur aapki trading strategy ko impact kar sakti hain.

Good Luck!

Japanese Yen Trading Analysis aur Advice
Price ne 141.78 par test kiya jab MACD indicator zero mark se upar ki taraf move karna shuru hua, jo ke dollar buy karne ke liye sahi entry point ko confirm karta hai correction ke liye. Is ke natije mein pair 60 pips upar gaya. U.S. inflation data ne dollar ki demand ko dobara se barhawa diya din ke doosre hisse mein, jis se pair ne apni tez girawat ke baad achi recovery ki, jo ke Bank of Japan ke board member Junko Nakagawa ke bayan ke baad hui, jisme unhone Japan mein aur interest rate hikes ki zaroorat ka zikar kiya. Aaj, dollar aur zyada barh sakta hai, magar isko bechne ka acha mauka samajhna behtar hoga bajaye is pair ke zyada upar jane ki umeed rakhne ke. Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada tar scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par rely karunga.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Aaj, main USD/JPY ko 142.87 ke around buy karne ka plan bana raha hoon (chart par green line), jiska target level 143.73 (chart par thicker green line) hai. 143.73 ke aas-paas, main long positions exit karne aur short positions kholne ka plan karunga, jiska aim 30-35 pips ka movement hoga entry level se opposite direction mein. Aaj pair ki growth sirf correction framework ke andar hi expected hai. Important! Buy karne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar ho aur upward movement shuru ho chuki ho.

Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY ko tab bhi buy karne ka plan bana raha hoon agar price 142.37 ko do baar test kare aur MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Ye pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur upward market reversal ko lead karega. Upar ki taraf 142.87 aur 143.73 levels tak rise ki umeed ki ja sakti hai.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Main aaj USD/JPY ko tab bechne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price 142.37 (chart par red line) level ko test kare, jo pair ki tez girawat ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target 141.50 level hoga, jahan main short positions exit karunga aur immediately opposite direction mein longs open karunga (expecting 20-25 pips ka movement level se opposite direction mein). Pair par pressure dobara aa sakta hai kyunki dollar ke liye bearish market abhi bhi chal raha hai. Important! Bechne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se neeche ho aur downward movement shuru ho chuki ho.

Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY ko tab bhi bechne ka plan bana raha hoon agar price 142.87 ko do baar test kare aur MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Ye pair ke upside potential ko limit karega aur market ko downward reversal ki taraf le jayega. 142.37 aur 141.50 levels tak girawat ki umeed ki ja sakti hai.

USD/JPY Ka Technical Analysis
Pichlay trading haftay mein Japanese yen ki mazbooti barh gayi aur usne apne pehle ke highs ko dheere dheere update kiya. 147.45 ka level touch karne ke baad, price tezi se girne lagi aur kuch waqt ke liye 141.88 tak pohnch gayi jahan usne support pa liya. Magar, price target area tak nahi pohnch saki. Is tarah, kami ka jo tajwez diya gaya tha, woh kuch had tak pura ho gaya. Filhaal, price chart super trend red zone mein hai jo sellers ke pressure ko dikhata hai.

Technical nazariye se, aaj 240-minute chart ko dekhte hue, hum 145.30 ke support level ki saaf break dekh rahe hain aur simple moving averages ka negative break bhi notice kar rahe hain, jo decline ke dobara shuru hone ka indication deta hai aur decline ke imkaan ko support karta hai. Isliye, downtrend ke hone ke zyada chances hain agar trade pehle ke broken support level (jo ab resistance level ban gaya hai 145.20) ke neeche rahe, initial target 142.75 hai. Dusri taraf, agar kam se kam ek ghante ke liye 145.30 ke upar close hoti hai to pair ko bullish path par wapas le aayegi, jahan 146.50 aur 147.50 ki ummeed hai. Niche chart dekhein:



Filhaal, prices gir rahi hain aur weekly lows ke qareeb aa rahi hain. Main resistance zone test ho chuki hai aur pressure se tik gayi hai, jo downside vector ki importance ko dikhata hai. Aage barhne ke liye, 144.97 ke level ke neeche consolidation ki zarurat hai, jo ab main resistance zone ki border ko cross kar raha hai. Is level ka retest aur phir downward reversal naye wave ke liye raasta banayegi jo 138.98 aur 136.34 ke beech ke area ko target karega.

Agar resistance break hota hai aur price reversal level 147.45 ko todti hai, to current scenario ko cancel karne ka signal milega.

USD/JPY Price Action Ka Science
Main USD/JPY currency pair ke pricing movements ka live analysis kar raha hoon. Jab forecast sahi kaam karti hai, iska matlab hai ke analysis productive raha aur sab se choti vulnerabilities bhi reveal hui hain. Kal ke US job vacancies ke data ke baad, jo JOLTS se aayi thi, September mein 0.50% Fed rate cut ke chances bohot tezi se barh gaye hain. Aur agar Bank of Japan ke actions ko bhi na dekhein, to keh sakte hain ke USD/JPY pair aise market expectations ke chalte dollar aur yen dono ke liye girti rahegi. Fed ke actions dollar ko kamzor karenge aur Bank of Japan ke actions yen ko mazboot karenge. Yeh market ka basic fundamental scenario hai.

Price ne 145.91 ka test kiya jab MACD indicator zero mark se neeche move kar raha tha, jiski wajah se selling ka Scenario No. 1 execute hua. Iska natija yeh hua ke pair 50 se zyada pips gir gaya. Jaise expected tha, Federal Reserve ke minutes release ke baad dollar par pressure barh gaya, jisne pair ko weekly low tak pohnchaya. Aaj ke Asian trading session mein, yen thodi kamzor hui hai manufacturing activity ke kamzor reports ke bawajood, magar Japan ke services sector mein relatively strong growth ne isse offset kar diya. Iska asar composite PMI mein bhi thodi si izafa dekhne ko mila. US dollar ki apparent weakness USD/JPY ko niche push karti rahegi, lekin ab zyada tar kal ke Jerome Powell ke speech par depend karta hai, isliye current levels par short positions se ehtiyaat baratain. Intraday strategy ke liye, main Buy signals Scenario No. 1 par focus karunga. Aaj, main USD/JPY ko 145.56 ke entry point par buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon, jo chart par green line se plot hai, aur iska target 146.13 hoga, jo chart par thicker green line se plot hai. 146.13 ke area mein, main long positions ko exit kar dunga aur short positions open karunga, expecting 30-35 pips ki movement opposite direction mein. Hum aaj pair ke upar jane ki umeed rakh sakte hain upward correction ke part ke taur par. Important: Buy karne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar hai aur us se upar ki taraf move kar raha hai.

USD/JPY Price Forecast
Niche chart mein USD/JPY exchange rate dikhai de raha hai. Trading ke liye, main hamesha recommend karta hoon ke hourly charts dekhein jo major timeframes ke trend ke sath aligned hon. Aaj Asia mein, Japan se Tokyo CPI ka inflation report 2.6% aaya hai. Yeh forecast ke 2.4% se zyada hai, jo bears ke liye ek achi khabar hai kyunke yeh Bank of Japan ke liye ek aur rate hike ka signal ho sakta hai saal ke end se pehle. Lekin aaj technique ke sath zyada ehtiyaat baratna zaroori hai. Iska reason daily trend line ke upar price drop hai, aur yeh sab kuch shayad is hafte ki sab se badi news ke aane se pehle ho raha hai, jo ke USA ka personal consumption hai. Yeh inflation report direction set karegi, aur jinhone trend line se pair ko sell kiya, unka position ab threat mein hai, magar sab kuch data par depend karta hai.




Trade Analysis aur Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

Price ne 144.74 ka test kiya jab MACD indicator zero mark se upar move kar raha tha, jo dollar buy karne ke liye sahi entry point ko confirm karta hai. Iska natija yeh hua ke pair 145.55 ke target level ke qareeb pohnch gaya, lekin kuch pips se chhoot gaya. Lekin is movement ne traders ko 60 pips ka profit de diya. Aaj Japan se kafi data release hua hai jo positive kehna mushkil hai, phir bhi isne yen ke sell-off ko nahi badhaya aur dollar ko mazboot nahi kiya. Tokyo Consumer Price Index figures economists ke forecasts se zyada thi, jabke unemployment, industrial production, aur retail sales ke data disappointing the aur predicted values se kam the. Yeh clear hai ke pair horizontal channel ke andar trade karta rahega, jahan US data market ka main driver hoga, jiske bare mein forecast ke doosre hisson mein discuss kiya jayega. Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada tar Scenario No. 1 aur 2 par rely karunga.

Buy Signal Scenario No. 1:

aj, main USD/JPY ko 144.96 ke entry point par buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon, jo chart par green line se plot hai, aur iska target 145.43 hoga, jo chart par thicker green line se plot hai. 145.43 ke area mein, main long positions ko exit kar dunga aur short positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 30-35 pips ki movement opposite direction mein. Hum aaj pair ke upar jane ki umeed rakh sakte hain upward correction ke framework mein. Important: Buy karne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar hai aur us se upar ki taraf move kar raha hai.

USD/JPY currency pair ka tajziya karte hain. USD/JPY ke 4-ghante ke chart par aik zahir downtrend nazar aata hai, jab ke pair filhal 141.459 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. July mein 156.000 ke nazdeek pohnchnay ke baad, price dheere dheere girti ja rahi hai aur kai support levels ko tod chuki hai jo pehle key liquidity zones the. 156.000 aur 152.000 ke aas-paas ke key resistance levels ko highlight kiya gaya hai, jahan USD/JPY price ne baray selling pressure ka samna kiya aur tez reversals dekhe gaye. USD/JPY ka downtrend tab shiddat ikhtiyar kar gaya jab price 148.000 ke neeche chali gayi, jo ke mazeed girawat ka sabab bana aur recovery ki umeed kam hai.



USD/JPY market mein kai liquidity zones (Dliq) aur Fair Value Gaps (FVG) hain jo downtrend ke doran form hue aur test kiye gaye. Khaaskar, USD/JPY price ne haal hi mein 144.000 ke aas-paas ke liquidity zone ko test kiya magar isay todne mein nakam raha, jo bearish sentiment ko mazid barhata hai. 144.000 ke aas-paas ka area aik key resistance level lagta hai aur current price action yeh darshata hai ke market ko upar ki taraf momentum hasil karne mein mushkilat ka samna hai.

Agar USD/JPY price girti rahi, to agla aham support 140.000 ke psychological level ke aas-paas ho sakta hai. Doosri taraf, agar recovery ki koshish ki gayi to 144.000 aur 148.000 levels par sakht resistance ka samna karna padega, is se pehle ke 152.000 aur 156.000 ke resistance zones ko pohnchne se pehle. Aakhir mein, USD/JPY ka 4-ghante ka chart clear downtrend mein hai, jahan price 144.000 ke aas-paas strong resistance aur 141.000 ke paas support ka samna kar rahi hai. Jab tak market sentiment mein koi substantial shift nahi hota, yeh pair pressure mein rehne ki umeed hai aur 140.000 level ki taraf mazeed girawat ka potential hai.

USDJPY ka Girawat 8½ Mahine ke Neechey (140.70)
Wednesday ko USDJPY 8½ mahine ke neechey (140.70) tak gir gaya, jab usne 141.68 ke key support ko tod diya (jo August 5 ka high tha). Is girawat ke baad price mein thoda bounce dekha gaya jo daily chart par oversold conditions se aya. Yeh bounce partial profit taking ki wajah se tha, jisme thoda sa price upar utha, lekin phir dobara nichey ka pressure banne ka imkaan hai.

141.68 ke neeche, agar bearish continuation signal confirm hota hai, to yeh aur zyada key levels par attack ka rasta khol dega, jisme 140.48 (Fibo 61.8% of 127.22/161.95), 140.25 (December 28 ka minimum) aur 140.00 (psychological level) shamil hain. Agar yeh level toot jaye, to aur gehra girawat ka khatra barh sakta hai.

Price ka koi bhi upar ka swing ideally 142.50/143.00 zone ke neechey hi rehna chahiye taake bade bearish trend ko barqarar rakha ja sake aur price ko larger downtrend mein wapas laaya ja sake. Girta hua 10DMA (143.98) aur broken Fibo 50% (144.58) upper pivots ko mark karte hain, jise todne se bearish trend khatam ho jayega.

Daily studies mazid negative momentum ko dikhate hain, jahan Moving Averages poori tarah se bearish hain aur 55/200 DMAs converge ho rahe hain taake 'death cross' ka signal mazid bearishness ko support kare. Resistance levels hain: 141.55; 141.76; 142.50; 143.90. Support levels hain: 140.48; 140.25; 140.00; 138.60.

"USD/JPY ki girawat ne shayad sell stop orders ko trigger kiya, jis se 141.50 ke low se neechey ek tez girawat dekhi gayi."

Ek analyst ne kaha ke asal rates abhi kaafi neeche hain aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) apni easing rate ko adjust karta rahega agar economy aur prices waqai mein expect ki gayi tarah perform karte hain. Raat ke waqt, USD/JPY already UST yields ke saath girawat dikha raha tha, jo oil prices ke tez girne ki wajah se ho sakta hai. "Hum dohratay hain ke Fed aur BoJ ki policy changes aur normalization ki barhti hui raftaar UST-JGB yield gap ko jaldi se narrow kar sakti hai, jo USD/JPY ko neechey le jane ke liye mazid support de sakti hai."

Pair akhri dafa 141.80 par dekha gaya. Filhal, daily momentum koi wazeh bias nahi dikha raha, jab ke RSI gir raha hai."

USDJPY ka Girawat 8½ Mahine ke Neechey (140.70)
Wednesday ko USDJPY 8½ mahine ke neechey (140.70) tak gir gaya, jab usne 141.68 ke key support ko tod diya (jo August 5 ka high tha). Is girawat ke baad price mein thoda bounce dekha gaya jo daily chart par oversold conditions se aya. Yeh bounce partial profit taking ki wajah se tha, jisme thoda sa price upar utha, lekin phir dobara nichey ka pressure banne ka imkaan hai.

141.68 ke neeche, agar bearish continuation signal confirm hota hai, to yeh aur zyada key levels par attack ka rasta khol dega, jisme 140.48 (Fibo 61.8% of 127.22/161.95), 140.25 (December 28 ka minimum) aur 140.00 (psychological level) shamil hain. Agar yeh level toot jaye, to aur gehra girawat ka khatra barh sakta hai.

Price ka koi bhi upar ka swing ideally 142.50/143.00 zone ke neechey hi rehna chahiye taake bade bearish trend ko barqarar rakha ja sake aur price ko larger downtrend mein wapas laaya ja sake. Girta hua 10DMA (143.98) aur broken Fibo 50% (144.58) upper pivots ko mark karte hain, jise todne se bearish trend khatam ho jayega.

Daily studies mazid negative momentum ko dikhate hain, jahan Moving Averages poori tarah se bearish hain aur 55/200 DMAs converge ho rahe hain taake 'death cross' ka signal mazid bearishness ko support kare. Resistance levels hain: 141.55; 141.76; 142.50; 143.90. Support levels hain: 140.48; 140.25; 140.00; 138.60.

"USD/JPY ki girawat ne shayad sell stop orders ko trigger kiya, jis se 141.50 ke low se neechey ek tez girawat dekhi gayi."

Ek analyst ne kaha ke asal rates abhi kaafi neeche hain aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) apni easing rate ko adjust karta rahega agar economy aur prices waqai mein expect ki gayi tarah perform karte hain. Raat ke waqt, USD/JPY already UST yields ke saath girawat dikha raha tha, jo oil prices ke tez girne ki wajah se ho sakta hai. "Hum dohratay hain ke Fed aur BoJ ki policy changes aur normalization ki barhti hui raftaar UST-JGB yield gap ko jaldi se narrow kar sakti hai, jo USD/JPY ko neechey le jane ke liye mazid support de sakti hai."

Pair akhri dafa 141.80 par dekha gaya. Filhal, daily momentum koi wazeh bias nahi dikha raha, jab ke RSI gir raha hai."

USD/JPY pair ne dusre din bhi apne losses ko barhaya aur Wednesday ke Asian session ke dauran 141.20 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Yeh girawat zyada tar is wajah se hui ke Japanese yen (JPY) mazid strong ho gaya tha, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governing Council member Junko Nagakawa ke hawkish comments ke baad. BoJ shayad apni monetary easing ko adjust kare agar economy aur price trends unki umeedon ke mutabiq chalte hain. July mein interest rates barhane ke bawajood, asal interest rates abhi bhi negative hain, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke monetary conditions abhi bhi supportive hain.
BoJ aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke beech contrasting monetary policies ne carry trade unwinds ko barhawa diya aur yen ki demand ko mazid boost kiya. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ne dobara yehi baat dohrayi ke central bank interest rates ko tab tak barhata rahega jab tak Japanese economy apne fiscal 2025 ke forecasts ko meet karti rahegi.

US dollar (USD) kamzor raha kyun ke US Treasury yields girti rahi hain, CPI data ke release se pehle. CPI data se Fed ke September rate cut ki gehrai ke hawalay se kuch raushan daari milne ki umeed hai. Haal hi ke US labor market reports ne bhi Fed ke bade rate cut ke imkaan par shak paida kar diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ne yeh dikhaya ke market ne poori tarah expect kiya ke Fed apni September meeting mein kam az kam 25 basis points ka rate cut karega, lekin 50 basis points ke rate cut ke odds thode kam ho gaye hain.

USD/JPY pair aik naye 9-mahine ke low par gir gaya, jo 140.70 ka tha, aur isne early July se shuru hone wale bearish structure ko mazid consolidate kar diya. Agar market 141.60 ke strong mark ke neeche close hota hai, to focus 140.20 ke support level par shift ho jaye ga. Agar 141.60 se bounce milta hai, to upar ki correction ka thoda optimism aa sakta hai, jahan resistance 143.40 par ho ga, 20-day moving average 144.80 ke agay. Upar ki taraf 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level 146.45-147.15 ke darmiyan limited rahega. Technical indicators, jaise ke MACD aur RSI, bearish ho gaye hain, jo mazeed girawat ka ishara karte hain.

USD/JPY pair ne dusre din bhi apne losses ko barhaya aur Wednesday ke Asian session ke dauran 141.20 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Yeh girawat zyada tar is wajah se hui ke Japanese yen (JPY) mazid strong ho gaya tha, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governing Council member Junko Nagakawa ke hawkish comments ke baad. BoJ shayad apni monetary easing ko adjust kare agar economy aur price trends unki umeedon ke mutabiq chalte hain. July mein interest rates barhane ke bawajood, asal interest rates abhi bhi negative hain, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke monetary conditions abhi bhi supportive hain.
BoJ aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke beech contrasting monetary policies ne carry trade unwinds ko barhawa diya aur yen ki demand ko mazid boost kiya. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ne dobara yehi baat dohrayi ke central bank interest rates ko tab tak barhata rahega jab tak Japanese economy apne fiscal 2025 ke forecasts ko meet karti rahegi.

US dollar (USD) kamzor raha kyun ke US Treasury yields girti rahi hain, CPI data ke release se pehle. CPI data se Fed ke September rate cut ki gehrai ke hawalay se kuch raushan daari milne ki umeed hai. Haal hi ke US labor market reports ne bhi Fed ke bade rate cut ke imkaan par shak paida kar diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ne yeh dikhaya ke market ne poori tarah expect kiya ke Fed apni September meeting mein kam az kam 25 basis points ka rate cut karega, lekin 50 basis points ke rate cut ke odds thode kam ho gaye hain.

USD/JPY pair aik naye 9-mahine ke low par gir gaya, jo 140.70 ka tha, aur isne early July se shuru hone wale bearish structure ko mazid consolidate kar diya. Agar market 141.60 ke strong mark ke neeche close hota hai, to focus 140.20 ke support level par shift ho jaye ga. Agar 141.60 se bounce milta hai, to upar ki correction ka thoda optimism aa sakta hai, jahan resistance 143.40 par ho ga, 20-day moving average 144.80 ke agay. Upar ki taraf 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level 146.45-147.15 ke darmiyan limited rahega. Technical indicators, jaise ke MACD aur RSI, bearish ho gaye hain, jo mazeed girawat ka ishara karte hain.

Budh ko, spot price mein USD Index ke muqablay mein aham izafa dekhne ko mila, jo ke 140.80 ke qareeb bearish zone mein pohanch gaya. Yeh barhti hui harkat ne traders ki dilchaspi ko barhaya hai, jo ke Japan ki monetary policy par ghore kar rahe hain. Halankeh central bank ke afsaraan ne sukoot ki nishandahi ki hai, magar bazar ke utar chadhav aur ghalib be yaqiniyon ke baais unka tareeqa zara ehtiyaat par mabni hai. Yen ki Taqwiat, US Ki Maeeshat Ke Masaail aur Bank of Japan Ki Policy Mein Tabdeeli:

Yen ek mehfooz asasa ke tor par ziada dilchasp bana hai, jo ke duniya bhar mein maeeshat ke susti ke khaufon ki wajah se hai. Khaaskar, United States mein aane wali susti ka imkaan ziada ho gaya hai, jabke uska labor market kamzor dikhayi de raha hai. US mein berozgaari ki sharah 4.3% tak barh gayi hai, jo ke November 2021 ke baad se sabse unchi hai. Is berozgaari ke izafay ne Federal Reserve (Fed) ke markazi sudi sharaah mein qabil e zikar katoti ki umeed ko barhaya hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, traders ko umeed hai ke September tak 50-basis point ki sudi katoti ho sakti hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke haali policies ne Yen ki qeemat mein mazeed izafa kar diya hai. Guzishta hafta, BoJ ne bazaar ko hairan karte hue umeed se ziada sudi izafa kiya, jisme key interest rates 15 basis points barh kar 0.15% - 0.25% ke range mein ho gaye. Iske ilawa, central bank ne apni mahana Japanese government bonds (JGBs) ki kharidari ko kam kar ke ¥3 trillion kar diya, jo 2026 ke pehle quarter se asar andaz hogi. In iqdamat ne Yen ki performance ko behtari ki taraf dala hai.

USD/JPY Ka Technical Tajziya:

Yeh pair 142.00 resistance level ko torhne mein nakaam raha, aur uske baad isne apni girawat ko barhaya, 141.00 ke neeche tak chali gayi, jo ke teen din tak chalti barhti qeemat ka silsila tha. Haal ke taaza update ke mutabiq, yeh currency pair 141.51 par trade kar rahi hai, jo ke 1.48% ka nuksan dikhata hai. 143.80 ke weekly high ko cross karne mein nakaami ne girawat ko mazeed barhaya aur downtrend ko mazbooti di.

Technical Asar:

USD/JPY pair ab 143.33 ke qareeb nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb hai, jo foran ek rukawat ka kaam kar sakta hai. Agar is level ke upar breakout hota hai, toh bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair ko "throwback support turned resistance" 144.50 tak test karne ka moka mil sakta hai. Is bearish trend ke bawajood, Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold conditions ke qareeb hai, jo ke ek reversal ka imkaan dikhata hai.