USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Japani yen do din se lagatar majboot ho raha hai, aur yeh US dollar ko pichay chhod raha hai. Iska sabab BOJ (Bank of Japan) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke monetory policy ke mukhtalif rukhs hain. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish bayan aur Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke dovish tone ne yen ki qeemat barhne mein madad ki. Ueda ne Friday ko parliament mein kaha ke agar economic outlook BOJ ke projections ke mutabiq raha, to interest rate mein mazeed izafa ho sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, Japan ka national consumer price index (CPI) inflation apni highest level par barqarar hai, jo BOJ ke aggressive monetary policy ko reinforce kar raha hai. Yeh hawkish outlook Fed ke cautious approach se bilkul mukhtalif hai. Powell ka Jackson Hole symposium mein bayan yeh darshata hai ke policy adjustments ke liye tayyar hain aur rate cut bhi ho sakta hai. Magar Fed Chair ne rate cut ke timing aur magnitude ke bare mein specific details nahi di, jis se market participants ne isay dovish samjha. Is wajah se US dollar kamzor ho gaya, aur market expectations ke mutabiq September mein rate cut honay ki ummeed barh gayi. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, market participants Fed ke September meeting mein kam se kam 25 basis points ke rate cut ki price de rahe hain. Yeh tabdeeli yen ki qeemat barhne mein madadgar sabit hui. USD/JPY pair Friday ko 143.90 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis ne bearish bias ko darshaya, jahan pair downtrend line ke niche trade kar raha tha. Lekin, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 level ke upar tha, jo downtrend ke jaari rehne ka ishara deta hai. Potential price movements ke hawale se, USD/JPY pair ko August 5 ko record kiye gaye seven-month low 141.69 ke aas paas support milne ki umeed thi. Upar ki taraf, pair ko 145.00 ke psychological level ke aas paas downtrend line par resistance ka samna karna pad sakta hai, aur us ke baad nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) 145.74 par. Agar 9-day EMA ke upar break hota hai, to yeh potential reversal ka signal ho sakta hai aur resistance zone ke paas 154.50 ki taraf wapas ja sakta hai.

USDJPY currency pair ki price quotes ne is development ko reflect kiya. Pair ne resistance level 161.87 se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi.
Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai.
Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai.
Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai,
USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho
USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend ka ishara karta hai

par kai dafa tests hone ke baad. If price is resistance level ko achi tarah se torhne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, to mazeed bullish movement ka potential hai jo ke price ko aur zyada upar le ja sakta hai. Magar agar price phir se is level par atak jata hai, to yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price dobara decline kare aur 143.615 ke support level tak wapas aa jaye. Pichle movement ko dekhte hue, humein pata chalta hai ke price ne ek significant girawat ka samna kiya jo ke highest level 148,000 ke aas paas se shuru hui, phir 143,615 ke support level ke qareeb ek naya low bana. Is ke baad price ne ek upward retracement ki koshish ki, magar 144.732 ke resistance level ko achi tarah se tor nahi saka. Yeh dikhata hai ke bearish pressure is area mein ab bhi kaafi strong hai, magar is resistance level ke qareeb correction ya consolidation ka potential ab bhi baqi hai. Agar hum candlestick ki position ko dekhein jo ke Simple Moving Average 60 aur 150 indicators ko tor chuki hai, to yeh ek market trend ka acha hawala hai jo ke ab bhi bearish direction mein move karne ke imkaan ko dikhata hai. Main khud bhi yeh samajhta hoon ke bearish trend ke potential ko chase karna ek acha mauka ho sakta hai, kyun ke mazeed bearish trend ke jaari rehne ka kaafi imkaan hai. Is assumption ke saath, humein sell ke liye price level dekhna chahiye. Defensive side par, USD/JPY pair Thursday ko Asian trading hours ke dauran 144.50 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Short-term pressure US dollar par Federal Reserve (Fed) officials ke dovish comments ki wajah se hai. Investors ab US GDP growth estimate ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke second quarter mein 2.8% increase ki prediction hai. Wednesday ko Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke deputy governor, Ryozo Himino ne kaha ke agar inflation planned rate se barh rahi hai to BoJ interest rates ko barhate rehne ka irada rakhti hai, jab ke financial markets ki sehat ko bhi barabar monitor kar rahi hai . Unke remarks BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke pichle haftay ke bayanat ke mutabiq hain, jo ke bank ki long-term rate-hike plans ko current market turmoil ke mutabiq support karte hain. Reuters survey ke mutabiq zyada tar analysts yeh anticipate kar rahe hain ke BoJ is saal ek aur dafa rates increase karega, is dafa December mein shuruat hogi jab ke October ko plan kiya gaya thatha

۔ **US Dollar Ki Recovery Ki Koshish Aur Girawat**

Is hafte ke aghaz mein US dollar ne kuch recovery ki koshish ki, lekin phir usne tezi se girawat dekhi. ¥142 ka level ab traders ke liye ek key point ban gaya hai. Yeh na sirf ek significant round number hai, balki is zone ne pehle bhi khaas market activity dekhi hai. Iski ahmiyat ko barhane wale factors mein se ek yeh hai ke yeh uptrend line ke saath intersect karta hai, jo is area ko ek key support zone bana sakta hai.

**Dollar Ki Momentum Ka Sawal**

Ab sabse bara sawal yeh hai ke kya dollar momentum wapas le sakta hai. Agar market ¥145 ke level ko break karne mein kamiyab hoti hai, to yeh further upside potential ka signal de sakta hai. Aise mein, agla target shayad ¥147.50 level hoga, jo ke psychologically important ¥150 level ke pehle aata hai. Lekin agar dollar girawat ka silsila jari rakhta hai aur ¥142 ke support zone ko break karta hai, to agla significant level ¥137.50 ke aas-paas hoga, jo ek aur major support line ka kaam karega.

**Global Risk Sentiment Ka Asar**

Yeh market global risk sentiment ke zyada influence mein hai. Recent mein carry trade ka unwinding, jo dollar ko support kar raha tha, ne volatility ko barhaya hai. Yeh trend continue hota hai ya reverses hota hai, isse global markets par wide impact ho sakta hai. Japanese yen, jo ke ek major safe haven currency hai, aam taur par tab majboot hota hai jab market participants risk-averse hote hain. Agar risk appetite low rahta hai, to USD/JPY mein selling pressure barh sakta hai, jo ke sirf is pair tak mehdood nahi rahega, balki across asset classes bhi dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

**Short-Term Movement Aur Technical Levels**

Agar short-term movement ko dekha jaye to US dollar ka yen ke muqablay mein chalna kai factors par depend karta hai, jin mein key technical levels aur broader global risk sentiment shamil hain. Traders ko 145 aur 142 yen ke levels par nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunki yeh levels agle bade move ke clues provide kar sakte hain. In levels ki monitoring se traders ko yeh samajhne mein madad milegi ke pair agle kuch hafton mein kis direction mein move kar sakta hai.

**Khulasah**

In conclusion, US dollar aur yen ke beech ka short-term movement technical aur sentiment-based factors se impact hota hai. Traders ko yeh levels aur global risk trends ko closely follow karna chahiye taake woh timely decisions le sakein aur market ke agle moves ko accurately predict kar sakein.

USD/JPY currency pair mukhtalif quwaton ka samna kar raha hai. Ek taraf, Bank of Japan ki ultra-loose monetary policy ke pressure mein weak Japanese yen ne USD/JPY pair ko mazbooti di hai. Yeh kamzori is speculation ko barhawa de rahi hai ke Bank of Japan mumkin hai ke umeed se pehle interest rates barha de, jo yen ko mazeed kamzor kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, US dollar abhi flat hai economic data ki kami ki wajah se. Magar, rising US fiscal yields kuch support provide kar rahe hain. Federal Reserve inflation aur 2024 mein lower tax rates ke imkanat ke hawale se ehtiyat barat raha hai, jo long run mein dollar par downward pressure daal sakte hain.

Technically, USD/JPY daily chart par aik interesting formation nazar aa rahi hai - ascending triangle. Yeh aur bullish RSI indicator yeh suggest karte hain ke pair shayad triangle ke upper trendline ko near the psychological barrier of 157.00 retest karne ki koshish kare. Aik decisive break above is level se pair 160.32 tak surge kar sakta hai, jo level 1990 se nahi dekha gaya.



Magar, support levels ko bhi madde nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Agar keemat triangle ke lower end par immediate support se neeche girti hai, aur phir key 155.50 level se, toh yeh 21-day EMA at 155.25 ko test karne ke liye mazeed slide kar sakti hai. A break below this level ek potential reversal indicate karegi aur USD/JPY par downward pressure daalegi. Overall, upcoming price action for USD/JPY 156.60 level par hinge karti hai. A decisive close above 157.00 focus ko resistance zone between 157.83 and 158.70 par shift karegi. Is area ko conquer karna 159.10 ke above surge ke darwaze kholega aur potentially 34-year high at 160.20 ka retest ho sakta hai. Agar yeh level bohot strong sabit hota hai, toh next potential upside targets 161.53 se 162.50 range mein ho sakte hain, jo June 2023 resistance line ke break hone ka sabab ban sakte hain.

ستمبر 10 2024 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

کل، امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑے میں ڈالر کی وسیع طاقت اور اہم بات یہ ہے کہ اسٹاک مارکیٹ میں اضافے سے متاثر ہونے میں معمولی اضافہ دیکھا گیا۔ جوڑی نے 143.60 کی مزاحمتی سطح پر بڑھنا بند کر دیا۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن پہلے ہی مثبت علاقے میں چلی گئی ہے، لیکن اب بھی لائن کے لیے ترقی کے علاقے کے ساتھ سرحد سے پلٹنے کا موقع موجود ہے۔ اگر قیمت پیر کی اونچائی سے اوپر ٹوٹ جاتی ہے، تو قیمت چینل (144.74) کی بالائی حد تک پہنچنے کا موقع ملے گا۔



اہم منظر نامہ مندی کا ہے، کیونکہ ہم اسٹاک انڈیکس میں مزید گہرے کمی کی توقع کرتے رہتے ہیں۔ خاص طور پر، ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ ایس. اینڈ. پی. 500 5 اگست کی کم ترین سطح 5089.41 تک پہنچ جائے گا۔ ین کے لیے قریب ترین ہدف ایک ہی ہے - 139.70-140.27 کی حد۔ ٤-گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں، مارلن آسیلیٹر صفر لائن سے ہم آہنگی سے مڑتا ہے، قیمت 143.60 کی مزاحمت سے الٹ جاتی ہے۔

١٤٣.٦٠ سے اوپر کا استحکام قیمت کو 144.24 پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کی طرف کام کرنے کی اجازت دے گا۔ اس لائن پر قابو پانے سے قیمت 144.74 تک بڑھ جائے گی۔ لیکن اس بات سے قطع نظر کہ قیمت 144.74 تک پہنچ جائے، ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ یہ 139.70-140.27 کی ہدف کی حد میں داخل ہو جائے گی۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

USD/JPY pair ne Tuesday ko European session ke shuruati hisson mein modest uptrend dikhaya, trading 143.00 ke aas-paas chal rahi thi. Lekin, strong bullish conviction ki kami ne suggest kiya ke traders significant positions mein commit hone se hesitant the, kyunki crucial US inflation data aane wala tha. Japanese Yen (JPY) ko downward revisions ki wajah se pressure mein rakha gaya, jab ke US Dollar (USD) ne modest gains dikhaye. Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke darmiyan monetary policies ka divergence ne investors ko aggressive bullish bets se roka, jo USD/JPY ke upside ko limit kar raha tha.

Technical perspective se, USD/JPY pair short-term downtrend mein nazar aayi, jo descending channel ke andar recent decline se indicated hota hai. Yeh negative outlook daily chart par deeply negative oscillators ke readings se aur support hota hai, jo suggest karta hai ke kisi bhi potential gains ko limit kiya ja sakta hai. Agar pair 144.00 level ko upar break karta hai, to yeh short-covering rally trigger kar sakta hai, jo 144.55 area ki taraf move lead kar sakta hai. Lekin, significant upward momentum tab tak unlikely hai jab tak pair 145.60 resistance level ko break nahi karta aur 145.00 psychological mark ko reclaim nahi karta.

Downside par, 143.20 area immediate support provide karne ki ummeed hai, uske baad 143.00 barrier aur Asian session ke lows ke aas-paas 142.85. Agar USD/JPY in support levels ko break karta hai, to yeh further decline ko signal kar sakta hai, jo 142.00 round figure aur 7-month lows ke aas-paas 141.70-141.65 tak target kar sakta hai. Overall, USD/JPY pair economic factors aur technical indicators ke complex interplay ka samna kar rahi hai. Japanese GDP ke downward revisions ne US dollar ko support diya, lekin monetary policies ka divergence aur technical analysis ne further gains ke liye cautious outlook suggest kiya. Traders ko economic developments aur technical indicators ko closely monitor karna hoga taake pair ke potential direction ka assessment kiya ja sake.

Japani yen do din se lagatar majboot ho raha hai, aur yeh US dollar ko pichay chhod raha hai. Iska sabab BOJ (Bank of Japan) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke monetory policy ke mukhtalif rukhs hain. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish bayan aur Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke dovish tone ne yen ki qeemat barhne mein madad ki. Ueda ne Friday ko parliament mein kaha ke agar economic outlook BOJ ke projections ke mutabiq raha, to interest rate mein mazeed izafa ho sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, Japan ka national consumer price index (CPI) inflation apni highest level par barqarar hai, jo BOJ ke aggressive monetary policy ko reinforce kar raha hai. Yeh hawkish outlook Fed ke cautious approach se bilkul mukhtalif hai. Powell ka Jackson Hole symposium mein bayan yeh darshata hai ke policy adjustments ke liye tayyar hain aur rate cut bhi ho sakta hai. Magar Fed Chair ne rate cut ke timing aur magnitude ke bare mein specific details nahi di, jis se market participants ne isay dovish samjha. Is wajah se US dollar kamzor ho gaya, aur market expectations ke mutabiq September mein rate cut honay ki ummeed barh gayi. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, market participants Fed ke September meeting mein kam se kam 25 basis points ke rate cut ki price de rahe hain. Yeh tabdeeli yen ki qeemat barhne mein madadgar sabit hui. USD/JPY pair Friday ko 143.90 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis ne bearish bias ko darshaya, jahan pair downtrend line ke niche trade kar raha tha. Lekin, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 level ke upar tha, jo downtrend ke jaari rehne ka ishara deta hai. Potential price movements ke hawale se, USD/JPY pair ko August 5 ko record kiye gaye seven-month low 141.69 ke aas paas support milne ki umeed thi. Upar ki taraf, pair ko 145.00 ke psychological level ke aas paas downtrend line par resistance ka samna karna pad sakta hai, aur us ke baad nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) 145.74 par. Agar 9-day EMA ke upar break hota hai, to yeh potential reversal ka signal ho sakta hai aur resistance zone ke paas 154.50 ki taraf wapas ja sakta hai.

Jaise ke maine pehle bhi bataya tha, mera main reference point senior time frame tha, jahan price behavior ko weekly chart ke hawale se analyze kiya gaya tha. Main aapko yaad dilana chahta hoon ke price action method pehle istemal hui thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ke paas abhi bhi upar jane ka chance hai kyun ke candle ne middle Bollinger Band line ko penetrate kiya hai. Lekin ehtiyat se kaam lena zaroori hai, kyun ke candle ab tak MA50 line ko penetrate nahi kar payi hai. Yahan se ek rebound ho sakta hai jo price ko niche le jaye. Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke yeh scenario play out ho, aur hum price distribution ke agle phase mein dakhil ho jayein jab zyada tar market participants yeh samajhne lagen ke corrective rollback khatam ho gaya hai, aur is point se selling shuru ho jaye. Lekin agar yeh puppeteer trap kaam kar jata hai, toh is scenario ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair bina kisi rollback ke seedha 159.13 tak ja sakta hai, aur agar aisa hota hai, toh market wahan se kafi gir sakti hai Main predict karta hoon ke USD/JPY abhi bhi rise karega, kyun ke H1 support price 145.88 ab tak break nahi hui hai. Is liye, main recommend karta hoon ke jo log is pair mein trade kar rahe hain, woh sirf buy positions par focus karein. Aap apna take profit target 151.20 par set kar sakte hain aur stop loss 145.45 par rakh sakte .

Trading Strategy with USD/JPY Prices
Hamara focus USD/JPY currency pair ki price action ki live analysis par hai. Price Action method aur "bearish engulfing" pattern ke mutabiq expected outcome puri tarah se waisa nahi tha jaisa pehle lag raha tha. Is model mein proportionality bohot aham hai. Humay ek signal mila—bearish Doji, jise maine chart mein highlight kiya hai. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke dono signals apne targets ko agle haftay achieve karenge. Pehle case mein maine 101 points ki decline anticipate ki thi, spread ko baghair shamil kiye, lekin mujhe ab bhi lagta hai ke trading instrument mazeed neeche ja sakta hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ke hisaab se, main expect karta hoon ke price 100th level se neeche 142.04 par break hoga, aur scenario step by step 138.1 par 141.39 aur 161.7 par 140.82 tak khele ga. Growth agar channel ki upper boundary tak hoti hai, to faida mand hoga, lekin main sharp upward move ka intezar karoon ga apni position adjust karne se pehle.

D1 Time Frame Analysis:

D1 time frame mein USD/JPY ne 141.72 par double touch kiya, lekin Friday ke end tak is critical support se koi mazboot rebound nazar nahi aaya. Tuesday se bears ka dominance tha, jinhon ne pair ko week ke doran neeche ki taraf dhakel diya. Halanke ek double bottom bana hai, jo prices ko upar push kar sakta hai, aur bulls ke liye 147.21, 151.82, 154.36, 157.87, aur 162.01 jaise levels breach karna mumkin ho sakta hai. Lekin kuch inconsistencies hain: do indicators jo main chart ke neeche hain, decreasing buy volumes aur short recovery ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain. Maine pehle 141.72 level par focus kiya tha, kyunke yeh prices ko bounce karwa sakta hai, aur agar momentum barhta hai, to indicators bhi flip ho sakte hain. Downtrend ab tak intact hai, lekin reversal ka bhi chance hai jab market tension barhti hai. Ideally, main price ko current position se 140 tak le kar bechne ka intezar karoonga. Yeh sab se zyada mumkin scenario hai. "Trend is your friend," lekin yeh hamesha trading ke liye favorable nahi hota.

Trading Strategy with USD/JPY Prices
Hamara focus USD/JPY currency pair ki price action ki live analysis par hai. Price Action method aur "bearish engulfing" pattern ke mutabiq expected outcome puri tarah se waisa nahi tha jaisa pehle lag raha tha. Is model mein proportionality bohot aham hai. Humay ek signal mila—bearish Doji, jise maine chart mein highlight kiya hai. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke dono signals apne targets ko agle haftay achieve karenge. Pehle case mein maine 101 points ki decline anticipate ki thi, spread ko baghair shamil kiye, lekin mujhe ab bhi lagta hai ke trading instrument mazeed neeche ja sakta hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ke hisaab se, main expect karta hoon ke price 100th level se neeche 142.04 par break hoga, aur scenario step by step 138.1 par 141.39 aur 161.7 par 140.82 tak khele ga. Growth agar channel ki upper boundary tak hoti hai, to faida mand hoga, lekin main sharp upward move ka intezar karoon ga apni position adjust karne se pehle.

D1 Time Frame Analysis:

D1 time frame mein USD/JPY ne 141.72 par double touch kiya, lekin Friday ke end tak is critical support se koi mazboot rebound nazar nahi aaya. Tuesday se bears ka dominance tha, jinhon ne pair ko week ke doran neeche ki taraf dhakel diya. Halanke ek double bottom bana hai, jo prices ko upar push kar sakta hai, aur bulls ke liye 147.21, 151.82, 154.36, 157.87, aur 162.01 jaise levels breach karna mumkin ho sakta hai. Lekin kuch inconsistencies hain: do indicators jo main chart ke neeche hain, decreasing buy volumes aur short recovery ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain. Maine pehle 141.72 level par focus kiya tha, kyunke yeh prices ko bounce karwa sakta hai, aur agar momentum barhta hai, to indicators bhi flip ho sakte hain. Downtrend ab tak intact hai, lekin reversal ka bhi chance hai jab market tension barhti hai. Ideally, main price ko current position se 140 tak le kar bechne ka intezar karoonga. Yeh sab se zyada mumkin scenario hai. "Trend is your friend," lekin yeh hamesha trading ke liye favorable nahi hota.

Haalan jo price 144,732 ke resistance level se neeche hai, jahan kai dafa is level par test hua hai. Agar price mazbooti se is resistance level ko torne mein kaamyab hoti hai, toh aur zyada bullish movement ka potential hai jo price ko aur upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin agar price is level par phir se ruk jata hai, toh yeh mumkin hai ke price dobara gir kar support level 143,615 tak wapas ja sakti hai. Pichle movement ko dekhte hue, hum dekh sakte hain ke price 148,000 ke highest level se ek kaafi bara decline dekha tha, aur phir 143,615 ke support level ke aas paas ek naya low bana. Yahan se, price ne ek upward retracement kiya lekin 144,732 ke resistance level ko mazbooti se tor nahi saka. Yeh dikhata hai ke bearish pressure ab bhi is area mein kaafi zyada hai, lekin yeh bhi mumkin hai ke correction ya consolidation is resistance level ke ird gird ho. Agar hum candlestick ki position dekhein, jo Simple Moving Average (SMA) 60 aur 150 indicators ko tor chuki hai, toh yeh market trend ka aik hawala hai ke price ab bhi bearish direction mein move kar sakti hai. Main khud zyada interested hoon ke trading ka potential dekhoon kyun ke ab bhi bearish trend ke taraf move hone ka bara chance hai. Is assumption ke sath, humein SELL trade ke liye price level dekhne ki tayari karni chahiye.
Dusri taraf, USD/JPY pair Thursday ko Asian trading hours ke doran 144.50 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. US dollar (USD) par short-term pressure Federal Reserve (Fed) ke officials ke dovish comments se aa raha hai. Investors ab US ke GDP growth estimate ka intezar kar rahe hain jo second quarter ke liye 2.8% tak barhne ki umeed hai. Wednesday ko, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke deputy governor Ryozo Himino ne kaha ke agar inflation waise hi barhti rahi jaisa plan hai, toh bank faida uthane ke liye interest rates barhata rahega aur financial markets ki sehat ka ghoor se jaiza leta rahega. Unke ye remarks BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke pichle hafte ke bayan se milte hain, jisme unhone kaha tha ke bank ki long-term rate-hike plans ko current market ke halat support karenge. Reuters ke survey ke mutabiq, zyada tar analysts umeed karte hain ke BoJ is saal dobara rates barhaye ga, shayad December mein shuru ho kar, October ke bajaye. Doosri taraf, US Central Bank ke dovish remarks ki wajah se US currency Japanese yen ke muqable mein kamzor hui hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell kehte hain, "Ab waqt hai ke policy adjust ki jaye." CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, markets ne September mein 25 basis point (bps) ki rate cut ko puri tarah price kar diya hai, aur ek bara rate cut bhi 36.5% ke aas paas aa sakta hai.

Haalan jo price 144,732 ke resistance level se neeche hai, jahan kai dafa is level par test hua hai. Agar price mazbooti se is resistance level ko torne mein kaamyab hoti hai, toh aur zyada bullish movement ka potential hai jo price ko aur upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin agar price is level par phir se ruk jata hai, toh yeh mumkin hai ke price dobara gir kar support level 143,615 tak wapas ja sakti hai. Pichle movement ko dekhte hue, hum dekh sakte hain ke price 148,000 ke highest level se ek kaafi bara decline dekha tha, aur phir 143,615 ke support level ke aas paas ek naya low bana. Yahan se, price ne ek upward retracement kiya lekin 144,732 ke resistance level ko mazbooti se tor nahi saka. Yeh dikhata hai ke bearish pressure ab bhi is area mein kaafi zyada hai, lekin yeh bhi mumkin hai ke correction ya consolidation is resistance level ke ird gird ho. Agar hum candlestick ki position dekhein, jo Simple Moving Average (SMA) 60 aur 150 indicators ko tor chuki hai, toh yeh market trend ka aik hawala hai ke price ab bhi bearish direction mein move kar sakti hai. Main khud zyada interested hoon ke trading ka potential dekhoon kyun ke ab bhi bearish trend ke taraf move hone ka bara chance hai. Is assumption ke sath, humein SELL trade ke liye price level dekhne ki tayari karni chahiye.
Dusri taraf, USD/JPY pair Thursday ko Asian trading hours ke doran 144.50 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. US dollar (USD) par short-term pressure Federal Reserve (Fed) ke officials ke dovish comments se aa raha hai. Investors ab US ke GDP growth estimate ka intezar kar rahe hain jo second quarter ke liye 2.8% tak barhne ki umeed hai. Wednesday ko, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke deputy governor Ryozo Himino ne kaha ke agar inflation waise hi barhti rahi jaisa plan hai, toh bank faida uthane ke liye interest rates barhata rahega aur financial markets ki sehat ka ghoor se jaiza leta rahega. Unke ye remarks BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke pichle hafte ke bayan se milte hain, jisme unhone kaha tha ke bank ki long-term rate-hike plans ko current market ke halat support karenge. Reuters ke survey ke mutabiq, zyada tar analysts umeed karte hain ke BoJ is saal dobara rates barhaye ga, shayad December mein shuru ho kar, October ke bajaye. Doosri taraf, US Central Bank ke dovish remarks ki wajah se US currency Japanese yen ke muqable mein kamzor hui hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell kehte hain, "Ab waqt hai ke policy adjust ki jaye." CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, markets ne September mein 25 basis point (bps) ki rate cut ko puri tarah price kar diya hai, aur ek bara rate cut bhi 36.5% ke aas paas aa sakta hai.

Strategic Forex Trading: USD/JPY
Hum is waqt USD/JPY currency pair ke current pricing behavior ka analysis kar rahe hain. Pichle hafte USD/JPY pair mein ek noticeable sell-off dekha gaya. Weekly chart par trend downward move kar raha hai. Agle hafte ke liye meri analysis ke mutabiq, moving averages ek active sell ko signal kar rahe hain, aur technical indicators bhi ek strong sell ki taraf ishara karte hain, jo ke overall sales recommendation ki taraf le jaate hain. Yeh indicators agle hafte ke liye ek bearish trend ka pata dete hain. U.S. se kuch significant news ki umeed hai, lekin forecast neutral hai. Wednesday ko U.S. ke important data ka neutral impact hoga, aur Japan mein bhi kuch ahem reports aane wali hain, jisme GDP ka release Monday ko hoga, jo bhi neutral effect layega. In sab factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mein agle hafte mein aur bearish movement ki umeed karta hoon, jahan sales price ko 141.01 ke support level tak le ja sakti hain. Upar ki taraf, resistance 143.41 par maujood hai, jahan buying ho sakti hai, lekin overall sentiment bearish hi rahega.

Aik possible rollback ke hawale se, meri prediction hai ke pair 146.66 tak retrace kar sakta hai, kyun ke monthly contract ki liquidity 149.19 aur 147.33 ke darmiyan hai. Agar pair 142.25 aur 142.00 ke key support levels ke upar rehta hai, toh 147.33 ki taraf pullback hone ke chances hain. Lekin agar price 142.00 ke neeche break kar jata hai, toh pair aur gir kar 141.47-141.08 ke support range tak ja sakta hai. Wahan se ek chhoti bullish correction dekhne ko mil sakti hai, ya price aur neeche gir kar 140.62-140.08 tak ja sakta hai, jahan se phir ek rebound ho sakta hai. Agar pair 142.00 se neeche nahi girta, toh ek bullish pullback 142.51-142.91 ke resistance zone tak ho sakta hai, uske baad dobara selling pressure aa sakta hai. Agar 143.08 se upar break ho aur price hold kare, toh ek aur bara pullback 147.33 ki liquidity tak ho sakta hai. Lekin technical signals primary bearish scenario ko support karte hain, jisme sirf ek chhoti si correction ki guzarish hai.

USD/JPY MARKET ANALYSIS

Pichle haftay mein, bears ne bulls ko initiative de diya aur price ko upar push kiya, lekin bulls ne lambay growth ko develop hone nahi diya. Wave structure ab bhi neeche ki taraf ban raha hai, aur MACD indicator lower sales zone mein hai, lekin apni signal line ke upar hai. Lagta hai ke price current August ke minimum ko update karne wali hai, isme ab bhi 200 points ka faasla hai. Agar minimum update hota hai, to shayad MACD aur CCI indicators par ek bullish divergence form hogi, shayad ek ya dono par ek saath. Indicators ki position se yeh signal pehle se predict kiya ja sakta hai. Is waqt kaam karne ka priority yeh hai ke day ke younger periods ke andar sirf neeche ki taraf kaam karein jab rollbacks aur sale ke formations nazar aayein, kam se kam 141.66 ka minimum update hone tak, aur uske baad dekhna hoga. Ab tak downward pressure ko kam hone ke koi nishan nahi hain. Low relatively paas hai, aur price shayad isse paar karne ki koshish kare, jab tak ke general market movement US dollar ke haq mein na ho, jo ke kaafi mumkin lagta hai. Dusri currencies US dollar ke muqablay mein aur zyada kamzor hoti nazar aa rahi hain. Har surat mein, trend ke saath kaam karna behtar hota hai, isse success ke chances barhte hain, aur hamara trend daily chart se downward hai. Lekin, bahut important news bhi aane wali hain. Agar yeh news US dollar ke haq mein aati hain, to ho sakta hai ke hum low se bahar na jayein, halaanki woh paas hai. 15-30 Moscow time par: US mein average hourly earnings, non-agricultural sector mein employed logon ki tadaad, economically active population ka share, private non-agricultural sector mein employed logon ki tadaad, aur US mein unemployment rate ke figures.

Technical side se dekha jaye to USD/JPY mixed picture dikhata hai lekin potential bullishness ke nishan hain. 4-hour chart par ek significant Hammer candlestick ban raha hai, jo ke reversal ya notable upward move ka signal ho sakta hai agar pattern session ke close tak intact raha. Triangular Moving Average channel aur Zigzag indicator ke mutabiq, pair upar ki taraf trend kar raha hai, jo ke buying opportunities ki taraf ishara hai. Laguerre aur RSI oscillators bhi bullish activity favor kar rahe hain. RSI market ko oversold territory ke qareeb dikha raha hai, jo aksar price rebound ka precursor hota hai. Agar upward momentum continue hota hai, to pair shayad Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level 152.350 ko target kare. Lekin, traders ko caution rakhni chahiye aur positions enter karne se pehle further confirmation ka wait karna chahiye. Toh, technical indicators USD/JPY ke liye possible bullish run ka hint dete hain, lekin economic reports aur market sentiment par nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Halaanki technical signals buying ko favor kar rahe hain, fundamental drivers bhi pair ke future direction ko shape karne mein important role play karte hain.