usd/jpy

Japani yen do din se lagatar majboot ho raha hai, aur yeh US dollar ko pichay chhod raha hai. Iska sabab BOJ (Bank of Japan) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke monetory policy ke mukhtalif rukhs hain. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish bayan aur Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke dovish tone ne yen ki qeemat barhne mein madad ki. Ueda ne Friday ko parliament mein kaha ke agar economic outlook BOJ ke projections ke mutabiq raha, to interest rate mein mazeed izafa ho sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, Japan ka national consumer price index (CPI) inflation apni highest level par barqarar hai, jo BOJ ke aggressive monetary policy ko reinforce kar raha hai. Yeh hawkish outlook Fed ke cautious approach se bilkul mukhtalif hai. Powell ka Jackson Hole symposium mein bayan yeh darshata hai ke policy adjustments ke liye tayyar hain aur rate cut bhi ho sakta hai. Magar Fed Chair ne rate cut ke timing aur magnitude ke bare mein specific details nahi di, jis se market participants ne isay dovish samjha. Is wajah se US dollar kamzor ho gaya, aur market expectations ke mutabiq September mein rate cut honay ki ummeed barh gayi. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, market participants Fed ke September meeting mein kam se kam 25 basis points ke rate cut ki price de rahe hain. Yeh tabdeeli yen ki qeemat barhne mein madadgar sabit hui. USD/JPY pair Friday ko 143.90 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis ne bearish bias ko darshaya, jahan pair downtrend line ke niche trade kar raha tha. Lekin, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 level ke upar tha, jo downtrend ke jaari rehne ka ishara deta hai. Potential price movements ke hawale se, USD/JPY pair ko August 5 ko record kiye gaye seven-month low 141.69 ke aas paas support milne ki umeed thi. Upar ki taraf, pair ko 145.00 ke psychological level ke aas paas downtrend line par resistance ka samna karna pad sakta hai, aur us ke baad nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) 145.74 par. Agar 9-day EMA ke upar break hota hai, to yeh potential reversal ka signal ho sakta hai aur resistance zone ke paas 154.50 ki taraf wapas ja sakta hai.

USDJPY currency pair ki price quotes ne is development ko reflect kiya. Pair ne resistance level 161.87 se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi.
Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai.
Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai.
Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai,
USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho
USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend ka ishara karta hai

par kai dafa tests hone ke baad. If price is resistance level ko achi tarah se torhne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, to mazeed bullish movement ka potential hai jo ke price ko aur zyada upar le ja sakta hai. Magar agar price phir se is level par atak jata hai, to yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price dobara decline kare aur 143.615 ke support level tak wapas aa jaye. Pichle movement ko dekhte hue, humein pata chalta hai ke price ne ek significant girawat ka samna kiya jo ke highest level 148,000 ke aas paas se shuru hui, phir 143,615 ke support level ke qareeb ek naya low bana. Is ke baad price ne ek upward retracement ki koshish ki, magar 144.732 ke resistance level ko achi tarah se tor nahi saka. Yeh dikhata hai ke bearish pressure is area mein ab bhi kaafi strong hai, magar is resistance level ke qareeb correction ya consolidation ka potential ab bhi baqi hai. Agar hum candlestick ki position ko dekhein jo ke Simple Moving Average 60 aur 150 indicators ko tor chuki hai, to yeh ek market trend ka acha hawala hai jo ke ab bhi bearish direction mein move karne ke imkaan ko dikhata hai. Main khud bhi yeh samajhta hoon ke bearish trend ke potential ko chase karna ek acha mauka ho sakta hai, kyun ke mazeed bearish trend ke jaari rehne ka kaafi imkaan hai. Is assumption ke saath, humein sell ke liye price level dekhna chahiye. Defensive side par, USD/JPY pair Thursday ko Asian trading hours ke dauran 144.50 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Short-term pressure US dollar par Federal Reserve (Fed) officials ke dovish comments ki wajah se hai. Investors ab US GDP growth estimate ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke second quarter mein 2.8% increase ki prediction hai. Wednesday ko Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke deputy governor, Ryozo Himino ne kaha ke agar inflation planned rate se barh rahi hai to BoJ interest rates ko barhate rehne ka irada rakhti hai, jab ke financial markets ki sehat ko bhi barabar monitor kar rahi hai . Unke remarks BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke pichle haftay ke bayanat ke mutabiq hain, jo ke bank ki long-term rate-hike plans ko current market turmoil ke mutabiq support karte hain. Reuters survey ke mutabiq zyada tar analysts yeh anticipate kar rahe hain ke BoJ is saal ek aur dafa rates increase karega, is dafa December mein shuruat hogi jab ke October ko plan kiya gaya thatha

۔ **US Dollar Ki Recovery Ki Koshish Aur Girawat**

Is hafte ke aghaz mein US dollar ne kuch recovery ki koshish ki, lekin phir usne tezi se girawat dekhi. ¥142 ka level ab traders ke liye ek key point ban gaya hai. Yeh na sirf ek significant round number hai, balki is zone ne pehle bhi khaas market activity dekhi hai. Iski ahmiyat ko barhane wale factors mein se ek yeh hai ke yeh uptrend line ke saath intersect karta hai, jo is area ko ek key support zone bana sakta hai.

**Dollar Ki Momentum Ka Sawal**

Ab sabse bara sawal yeh hai ke kya dollar momentum wapas le sakta hai. Agar market ¥145 ke level ko break karne mein kamiyab hoti hai, to yeh further upside potential ka signal de sakta hai. Aise mein, agla target shayad ¥147.50 level hoga, jo ke psychologically important ¥150 level ke pehle aata hai. Lekin agar dollar girawat ka silsila jari rakhta hai aur ¥142 ke support zone ko break karta hai, to agla significant level ¥137.50 ke aas-paas hoga, jo ek aur major support line ka kaam karega.

**Global Risk Sentiment Ka Asar**

Yeh market global risk sentiment ke zyada influence mein hai. Recent mein carry trade ka unwinding, jo dollar ko support kar raha tha, ne volatility ko barhaya hai. Yeh trend continue hota hai ya reverses hota hai, isse global markets par wide impact ho sakta hai. Japanese yen, jo ke ek major safe haven currency hai, aam taur par tab majboot hota hai jab market participants risk-averse hote hain. Agar risk appetite low rahta hai, to USD/JPY mein selling pressure barh sakta hai, jo ke sirf is pair tak mehdood nahi rahega, balki across asset classes bhi dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

**Short-Term Movement Aur Technical Levels**

Agar short-term movement ko dekha jaye to US dollar ka yen ke muqablay mein chalna kai factors par depend karta hai, jin mein key technical levels aur broader global risk sentiment shamil hain. Traders ko 145 aur 142 yen ke levels par nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunki yeh levels agle bade move ke clues provide kar sakte hain. In levels ki monitoring se traders ko yeh samajhne mein madad milegi ke pair agle kuch hafton mein kis direction mein move kar sakta hai.

**Khulasah**

In conclusion, US dollar aur yen ke beech ka short-term movement technical aur sentiment-based factors se impact hota hai. Traders ko yeh levels aur global risk trends ko closely follow karna chahiye taake woh timely decisions le sakein aur market ke agle moves ko accurately predict kar sakein.

USD/JPY currency pair mukhtalif quwaton ka samna kar raha hai. Ek taraf, Bank of Japan ki ultra-loose monetary policy ke pressure mein weak Japanese yen ne USD/JPY pair ko mazbooti di hai. Yeh kamzori is speculation ko barhawa de rahi hai ke Bank of Japan mumkin hai ke umeed se pehle interest rates barha de, jo yen ko mazeed kamzor kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, US dollar abhi flat hai economic data ki kami ki wajah se. Magar, rising US fiscal yields kuch support provide kar rahe hain. Federal Reserve inflation aur 2024 mein lower tax rates ke imkanat ke hawale se ehtiyat barat raha hai, jo long run mein dollar par downward pressure daal sakte hain.

Technically, USD/JPY daily chart par aik interesting formation nazar aa rahi hai - ascending triangle. Yeh aur bullish RSI indicator yeh suggest karte hain ke pair shayad triangle ke upper trendline ko near the psychological barrier of 157.00 retest karne ki koshish kare. Aik decisive break above is level se pair 160.32 tak surge kar sakta hai, jo level 1990 se nahi dekha gaya.



Magar, support levels ko bhi madde nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Agar keemat triangle ke lower end par immediate support se neeche girti hai, aur phir key 155.50 level se, toh yeh 21-day EMA at 155.25 ko test karne ke liye mazeed slide kar sakti hai. A break below this level ek potential reversal indicate karegi aur USD/JPY par downward pressure daalegi. Overall, upcoming price action for USD/JPY 156.60 level par hinge karti hai. A decisive close above 157.00 focus ko resistance zone between 157.83 and 158.70 par shift karegi. Is area ko conquer karna 159.10 ke above surge ke darwaze kholega aur potentially 34-year high at 160.20 ka retest ho sakta hai. Agar yeh level bohot strong sabit hota hai, toh next potential upside targets 161.53 se 162.50 range mein ho sakte hain, jo June 2023 resistance line ke break hone ka sabab ban sakte hain.