usd/jpy ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Andazay se thoda kam raha aur market dynamics par kisi bhi khaas asar ka sabab nahi bana. Pair lagta hai ke sideways trade karta rahega, jis se yen ki volatility wapas normal ho rahi hai. Intraday strategy ke liye, mein zyada bharosa karunga Scenario No. 1 aur 2 par.Aaj mera plan hai USD/JPY ko kharidne ka jab yeh 144.82 ke entry point par ponche, jo chart par green line se plot ki gayi hai, aur target 145.45 tak jane ka hai, jo chart par moti green line se plot ki gayi hai. 145.45 ke area mein, mein long positions exit karne ka irada rakhta hoon aur opposite direction mein short positions open karne ka plan hai, jismein level se 30-35 pips ki movement expect ki ja sakti hai. Aaj pair ke upar jaane ki ummed hai upward correction ke tahat. Important: Kharidne se pehle, ye yaqeen kar lein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur wahan se rise kar raha ho. Mein USD/JPY ko kharidne ka plan karta hoon jab 144.47 ke do musalsal test ho aur MACD indicator oversold area mein ho . Yeh pair ki downward potential ko limit kar dega aur market mein ulta upturn layega. Hum growth expect kar sakte hain opposite levels 144.82 aur 145.55 tak.Mein aaj USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan karta hoon sirf us surat mein jab 144.47 ke level ka test ho, jo chart par red line se plot kiya gaya hai, jisse pair mein tezi se decline hoga. Sellers ka key target 143.76 ka level ho ga jahan mein short positions exit karne ka irada rakhta hoon aur foran se opposite direction mein long positions open karne ka plan hai, jismein level se 20-25 pips ki movement expect ki ja sakti hai. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, kyun ke dollar ke bearish market abhi tak khatam nahi hui. Important: Bechne se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se neeche ho aur decline shuru kar raha ho Mein USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan karta hoon jab 144.82 ke do musalsal test ho aur MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ki upward potential ko limit kar dega aur market mein ulta downturn layega. Hum decline expect kar sakte hain

Dollar ki majbooti ki khabron ki wajah se tha jo market mein general strengthening ka sabab bana. Yahan wave structure abhi bhi downward order mein build ho raha hai, aur MACD indicator lower sales zone mein hai, lekin apni signal line ke upar. 145.10 ka horizontal level ne price ko poore haftay resistance diya. Jab price iske niche thi, to decline ke continue hone ka zyada chance tha, lekin ye level abhi bhi upar ki taraf break hua, jo ke is waqt downward scenario ko side par rakh raha hai. Daily candle ne is resistance level 145.10 ke upar fix kiya, jo ke ek true breakout tha. Isse pehle growth ke attempts successful nahi rahe. Ab price growth ka high probability hai jo pichle growth wave ka maximum hai, ie 149.47 ke level tak. 154.10 ke broken level tak rollback preliminary possible hai, jo ke ab support ban gaya hai aur ek mirror ban gaya hai. Decline ka resume tabhi consider kiya jayega jab is level ke niche reverse consolidation hota hai, tab hum shayad August ka low update karne jayenge jo 140.28 aur 141.79 ke levels ke beech hoga. Is senior period ko dekhte hue, din ke chhote periods mein sirf purchases consider kiye jate hain jab growth ke formation hota hai. Growth ke haq mein ek additional signal CCI indicator ka position hai, jo lower overheating zone se nikal kar upar ki taraf directed hai. Plus, wahi indicator older weekly chart par bhi lower overheating zone se upar ja raha hai. Aam taur par, market mein doosre major pairs bhi US dollar ki strengthening ki taraf aimed hain. Aaj downward rollback hai, aur meri rai mein, price ko buy karne ke liye pakadna zaroori hai. Aaj ki khabrein jo note ki ja sakti hain: 16-45 Moscow time - US Manufacturing Business Activity Index (PMI). 17-00 - US Construction Expenditures, ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Inde

USD/JPY pair ne Tuesday ko European session ke shuruati hisson mein modest uptrend dikhaya, trading 143.00 ke aas-paas chal rahi thi. Lekin, strong bullish conviction ki kami ne suggest kiya ke traders significant positions mein commit hone se hesitant the, kyunki crucial US inflation data aane wala tha. Japanese Yen (JPY) ko downward revisions ki wajah se pressure mein rakha gaya, jab ke US Dollar (USD) ne modest gains dikhaye. Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke darmiyan monetary policies ka divergence ne investors ko aggressive bullish bets se roka, jo USD/JPY ke upside ko limit kar raha tha.
Technical perspective se, USD/JPY pair short-term downtrend mein nazar aayi, jo descending channel ke andar recent decline se indicated hota hai. Yeh negative outlook daily chart par deeply negative oscillators ke readings se aur support hota hai, jo suggest karta hai ke kisi bhi potential gains ko limit kiya ja sakta hai. Agar pair 144.00 level ko upar break karta hai, to yeh short-covering rally trigger kar sakta hai, jo 144.55 area ki taraf move lead kar sakta hai. Lekin, significant upward momentum tab tak unlikely hai jab tak pair 145.60 resistance level ko break nahi karta aur 145.00 psychological mark ko reclaim nahi karta. Downside par, 143.20 area immediate support provide karne ki ummeed hai, uske baad 143.00 barrier aur Asian session ke lows ke aas-paas 142.85. Agar USD/JPY in support levels ko break karta hai, to yeh further decline ko signal kar sakta hai, jo 142.00 round figure aur 7-month lows ke aas-paas 141.70-141.65 tak target kar sakta hai. Overall, USD/JPY pair economic factors aur technical indicators ke complex interplay ka samna kar rahi hai. Japanese GDP ke downward revisions ne US dollar ko support diya, lekin monetary policies ka divergence aur technical analysis ne further gains ke liye cautious outlook suggest kiya. Traders ko economic developments aur technical indicators ko closely monitor karna hoga taake pair ke potential direction ka

### USD/JPY: کامیاب ٹریڈنگ کے لیے ایک روڈ میپ

وہ اس وقت USD/JPY کرنسی جوڑی کے متحرک قیمت کے رویے کا جائزہ لے رہے ہیں۔ 127.21 کی کم ترین سطح سے جاپانی ین کے خریداروں کی صلاحیت کا اندازہ لگاتے ہوئے، یہ تجویز ہے کہ USD/JPY کے کوٹس اگلے امپلس زون 170.58 تک بڑھ سکتے ہیں۔ تاہم، یہ حد سے زیادہ لگتا ہے، کیونکہ بلز پہلے ہی 159.74 پر دوسرے امپلس زون پر عمل کر چکے ہیں۔ ری کوائل کے بغیر مسلسل ترقی کا امکان نہیں ہے۔ مارکیٹ ڈالر-ین کی ترقی کے اختتامی نقطہ کے بارے میں غیر یقینی ہے۔ بیئرز کے 159.74 سے نیچے مضبوطی کے بعد ہی مندی کی سمت پر مبنی پل بیک کے مستحکم اشارے ظاہر ہوسکتے ہیں۔ تب تک، شمالی رجحان مضبوط رہے گا۔ اگر 159.74 کی سپورٹ لیول کا امکان ہے، تو بیئرز کی جانب سے نیچے کی حرکت دوسرے زون کی نچلی حد 155.60 کے اندر موجود رہنے کا امکان ہے۔

اس منظر نامے میں، USD/JPY میں ری باؤنڈ ہو سکتا ہے۔ ایک مشاہدہ کار کی حیثیت سے جو مارکیٹ پر گہری نظر رکھتا ہے، میں سمجھتا ہوں کہ جب مارکیٹ نارمل تصحیح کے مرحلے میں داخل ہو جائے تو بیچنے کی پوزیشنوں میں مشغول ہونے کے مواقع مل سکتے ہیں۔ اس وقت، USD/JPY جوڑی اپ ٹرینڈ لائن سے اوپر تجارت کر رہی ہے، H1 چینل کی اوپری حد تک اچھالنے کے بعد 161.44-161.33 کے سپورٹ زون کی طرف اتر رہی ہے۔ اگر موجودہ سطح سے نیچے بریک آؤٹ ہوتا ہے، تو یہ نیچے کی طرف مسلسل حرکت کا اشارہ دے سکتا ہے جو نچلی ٹرینڈ لائن کی طرف ہو۔ 161.04-160.87 کا والیوم زون ممکنہ طور پر وہیں موجود ہے، جو ابتدائی نچلی ہدف کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔ دوسری جانب، اگر اس علاقے سے ری باؤنڈ ہوتا ہے، تو یہ 161.84-162.02 کے مزاحمتی زون کی طرف ممکنہ نمو کا اشارہ دے سکتا ہے۔ یہ مزاحمتی زون پہلا اوپری ہدف کے طور پر کام کرتا ہے۔

USDJPY MARKET ANALYSIS

Wednesday, July 3 ko, United States se aane wale weak data ke baad dollar gir gaya, magar yen ke muqable mein dollar phir bhi barh raha, aur New York mein 161.64 par close hua, jo ke din ka 0.1% izafa tha. Yen 161.96 tak gir gaya, jo December 1986 ke baad se sabse kam hai. United States ke data ne dikhaya ke initial unemployment claims ka number 238,000 tak barh gaya week ending June 29 tak, seasonally adjusted. Continuing unemployment claims ka number 1.858 million tak barh gaya week ending June 22 tak, seasonally adjusted, jo ke November 2021 ke end ke baad se sabse zyada hai. ADP employment report ne Wednesday ko dikhaya ke private employment mein 150,000 jobs ka izafa hua June mein (expected 160,000 tha).

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) se release hone wale U.S. service sector report bhi weak thi, jisme data dikhata hai ke U.S. service sector purchasing managers' index (PMI) 48.8 tak gir gaya May ke 53.8 se, jo ke chaar saalon ka sabse kam hai. Yeh is saal doosri dafa hai ke index 50 se neechay gaya hai, jo service sector mein contraction dikhata hai. U.S. factory orders bhi unexpectedly 0.5% gir gaye May mein, jab ke growth expected thi. Aik series of U.S. data ke baad, U.S. interest rate futures market ne September mein rate cut ki probability 74% tak barha di 69% se jo Tuesday late ko thi, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) ke calculations ke mutabiq. Market bhi yeh samajhti hai ke 2024 mein do rate cuts honge. Weak data ke series ne early trading mein dollar ko thoda frustrate kiya, magar Japanese importers se bargain-hunting orders ke active influx ne yen ki depreciation ko rokna mushkil banaya.

Is waqt, investors zyada concern hain ke Bank of Japan interest rates ko barha sakti hai ya nahi. Agar is hawale se koi aur radical action nahi hota, tou intervention ke bawajood, carry trades ka wave rokna mushkil hai. Magar, short term mein, overbought USD/JPY aur bhi bigad raha hai, aur hume profit-taking adjustments ke risk se bachna hoga.

USD/JPY currency pair mukhtalif quwaton ka samna kar raha hai. Ek taraf, Bank of Japan ki ultra-loose monetary policy ke pressure mein weak Japanese yen ne USD/JPY pair ko mazbooti di hai. Yeh kamzori is speculation ko barhawa de rahi hai ke Bank of Japan mumkin hai ke umeed se pehle interest rates barha de, jo yen ko mazeed kamzor kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, US dollar abhi flat hai economic data ki kami ki wajah se. Magar, rising US fiscal yields kuch support provide kar rahe hain. Federal Reserve inflation aur 2024 mein lower tax rates ke imkanat ke hawale se ehtiyat barat raha hai, jo long run mein dollar par downward pressure daal sakte hain.

Technically, USD/JPY daily chart par aik interesting formation nazar aa rahi hai - ascending triangle. Yeh aur bullish RSI indicator yeh suggest karte hain ke pair shayad triangle ke upper trendline ko near the psychological barrier of 157.00 retest karne ki koshish kare. Aik decisive break above is level se pair 160.32 tak surge kar sakta hai, jo level 1990 se nahi dekha gaya.



Magar, support levels ko bhi madde nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Agar keemat triangle ke lower end par immediate support se neeche girti hai, aur phir key 155.50 level se, toh yeh 21-day EMA at 155.25 ko test karne ke liye mazeed slide kar sakti hai. A break below this level ek potential reversal indicate karegi aur USD/JPY par downward pressure daalegi. Overall, upcoming price action for USD/JPY 156.60 level par hinge karti hai. A decisive close above 157.00 focus ko resistance zone between 157.83 and 158.70 par shift karegi. Is area ko conquer karna 159.10 ke above surge ke darwaze kholega aur potentially 34-year high at 160.20 ka retest ho sakta hai. Agar yeh level bohot strong sabit hota hai, toh next potential upside targets 161.53 se 162.50 range mein ho sakte hain, jo June 2023 resistance line ke break hone ka sabab ban sakte hain.

se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi. Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai. Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai. Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai, USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend

Jaise ke maine pehle bhi bataya tha, mera main reference point senior time frame tha, jahan price behavior ko weekly chart ke hawale se analyze kiya gaya tha. Main aapko yaad dilana chahta hoon ke price action method pehle istemal hui thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ke paas abhi bhi upar jane ka chance hai kyun ke candle ne middle Bollinger Band line ko penetrate kiya hai. Lekin ehtiyat se kaam lena zaroori hai, kyun ke candle ab tak MA50 line ko penetrate nahi kar payi hai. Yahan se ek rebound ho sakta hai jo price ko niche le jaye. Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke yeh scenario play out ho, aur hum price distribution ke agle phase mein dakhil ho jayein jab zyada tar market participants yeh samajhne lagen ke corrective rollback khatam ho gaya hai, aur is point se selling shuru ho jaye. Lekin agar yeh puppeteer trap kaam kar jata hai, toh is scenario ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair bina kisi rollback ke seedha 159.13 tak ja sakta hai, aur agar aisa hota hai, toh market wahan se kafi gir sakti hai Main predict karta hoon ke USD/JPY abhi bhi rise karega, kyun ke H1 support price 145.88 ab tak break nahi hui hai. Is liye, main recommend karta hoon ke jo log is pair mein trade kar rahe hain, woh sirf buy positions par focus karein. Aap apna take profit target 151.20 par set kar sakte hain aur stop loss 145.45 par rakh sakte .

Chalo H4 timeframe chart par USDJPY currency pair ko dekhte hain. USDJPY is waqt 141.16 par trade ho raha hai jo ke kal ke opening price se neeche hai. Stochastic indicator 5.3.3 abhi level 20 se neeche hai, jo batata hai ke USDJPY abhi bhi bearish bias mein hai. USDJPY ki movement depressed aur weak lag rahi hai, jaisay ke upar dekh sakte hain. Aaj kuch important news bhi aa rahi hain, jin par nazar rakhna zaroori hai. USD index bhi neeche ja raha hai, jis ki wajah se USDJPY se umeed hai ke aaj bhi bearish trend mein rahega.
Mera trading plan aaj H4 timeframe par yeh hai: mein 141.10 par sell order place karunga, stop loss 142.00 par rakhunga aur target price par profit book karunga. Trading karte waqt sab se zaroori hai sabr rakhna aur sahi mauka dekh kar market mein entry karna. Aaj lagta hai ke USDJPY 142.0 ke important area ko test karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar yeh area break ho jaye, toh USDJPY kaafi neeche ja sakta hai. Pehle hum ne dekha tha ke price upar bhi jaane ki koshish kar raha tha, BB area ke upar.Technical nazariay se USDJPY pair ne apne downtrend se reversal ki signs dikhaayi hain. Price abhi downtrend line ke upar trade ho rahi hai, jo ke batata hai ke downtrend momentum kamzor ho raha hai. Lekin 14-day RSI abhi bhi 50 se neeche hai, jo ke overall downtrend intact rehne ki taraf ishara kar raha hai. Support side par, pair ko 9-day EMA ke near 145.53 aur downtrend line ke near 144.00 par resistance ka saamna karna par sakta hai. Agar price in levels se neeche girti hai, toh woh August 5 ke 141.69 ke 7-maheenay ke low tak ja sakta hai aur phir 140.25 par support mil sakta hai.

Upar ki taraf, USDJPY psychological level 150.00 tak ja sakta hai. Agar yeh level break ho jaye, toh rally 154.50 tak bhi ja sakti hai. Lekin abhi koi clear upward rebound ke signals nahi hain, kyun ke price 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level 146.45 aur 20-day SMA ke neeche hai. MACD bhi negative territory mein hai, lekin trigger line ke kareeb hai, jo ke bearish momentum ke weakening ki taraf ishara kar raha hai. RSI bhi 30 level ke kareeb ja raha hai, jo ke potential reversal ki taraf ishara kar sakta hai. USDJPY pair abhi Fed ke potential rate cuts aur BoJ ki hawkish monetary policy ke beech mein uljha hua hai. Aane wala US employment data pair ki future direction tay karega. Technical nazariay se, kuch reversal signs hain, lekin overall downtrend abhi bhi intact hai.

USD aur JPY ki trading pair abhi aik notable downward trend mein hai, jo ke Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki contrasting monetary policies ki wajah se hai. Recent decline ka main sabab yeh hai ke market mein Fed ki 25 basis point (bps) rate cut ki expectations hai, jo ke unki aane wali meeting mein September 17-18 ko discuss hoga. Chahay recent upward movement dekhi gai ho, lekin in expectations ne USD ki gains ko extend hone se roka hua hai. Is ke sath sath, market mein cautious sentiment ne Japanese Yen ki safe-haven demand ko bhi boost kiya hai, jis se USD/JPY pair par aur pressure par raha hai. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ki taraf se interest rates ko FY2025 tak raise karne ki baat ne bhi is downtrend ko fuel kiya hai, kyun ke yeh Fed ke anticipated rate cut se bilkul opposite hai. Traders is waqt bade decisions lene se hichkicha rahe hain aur US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke Fed ki next policy steps par insights degi aur USD/JPY ke short-term outlook ko bhi effect karegi.
Technical perspective se dekhain toh USD/JPY pair clear bearish signals dikha rahi hai. Pair abhi 143.20 ke day’s opening level se neeche trade ho raha hai aur daily Pivot level 142.95 ke kareeb hai. Price moving average trend line ke neeche hai, jo ke volume distribution ka critical level hota hai, is se strong selling pressure ka pata chalta hai. Agar price 143.20 ke upar move karne mein kamyab ho jaye, toh resistance levels 143.69 aur shayad 143.75 tak rise ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price 142.95 se neeche girta hai, toh expected hai ke yeh 142.74 aur potentially 142.20 ke support levels tak decline karega. Pair monthly Pivot level 146.24 aur weekly Pivot level 143.75 ke neeche bhi hai, jo ke corrective mood ko suggest kar raha hai. Hourly chart par pair apne previous range 143.69 se 142.14 se neeche slip kar gaya hai, jo batata hai ke sellers dominant hain. Lekin traders ko false breakout se bhi hoshiyar rehna chahiye. Overall, technical indicators bearish outlook ko support karte hain, aur agar pair key support levels ke neeche trade karta hai toh further declines ki potential hai.

Agar price 142.40 ke neeche break karta hai, toh sell signal activate ho jayega. Aur agar price upside breakout karta hai aur 141.30 ke level ko cross karta hai, toh buy signal activate ho jayega. Uptrend ki correction ke liye mujhe umeed hai ke USDJPY bearish swing karega. Bearish swings sirf corrections hain, reversals nahi, is liye traders ko ehtiyat se kaam lena chahiye.

Higher time frames par, USDJPY solid uptrend mein hai. Rising trend line daily chart par uptrend ke liye support line ki tarah kaam kar rahi hai. Trend line se kayi dafa bounces hue hain, jis se zyada buyers attract hue hain. Kyun ke pair trend line se kaafi door drift kar gaya hai, is liye naturally trend line ko retest karega ta ke apne aap ko correct kar sake. Trend line ke around 140.30 par break ya bounce hoga, us waqt price 140.25 tak drop karega. Downside breakout ho toh 150 pips tak gir ke 139.30 par aa sakta hai.

Mujhe hamesha breakout ka intezar aur observation karna zaroori lagta hai forecast karne se pehle ke price ka agla direction kya hoga. Abhi 140.30 high hai; agar yeh break karta hai toh 141.60 resistance hoga, toh agar break hota hai toh high hoga. Mera maanna hai ke 141.65 low hai, aur agar yeh valid price ke sath neeche penetrate karta hai toh 142.50 potential low hai.

Japani yen do din se lagatar majboot ho raha hai, aur yeh US dollar ko pichay chhod raha hai. Iska sabab BOJ (Bank of Japan) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke monetory policy ke mukhtalif rukhs hain. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish bayan aur Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke dovish tone ne yen ki qeemat barhne mein madad ki. Ueda ne Friday ko parliament mein kaha ke agar economic outlook BOJ ke projections ke mutabiq raha, to interest rate mein mazeed izafa ho sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, Japan ka national consumer price index (CPI) inflation apni highest level par barqarar hai, jo BOJ ke aggressive monetary policy ko reinforce kar raha hai. Yeh hawkish outlook Fed ke cautious approach se bilkul mukhtalif hai. Powell ka Jackson Hole symposium mein bayan yeh darshata hai ke policy adjustments ke liye tayyar hain aur rate cut bhi ho sakta hai. Magar Fed Chair ne rate cut ke timing aur magnitude ke bare mein specific details nahi di, jis se market participants ne isay dovish samjha. Is wajah se US dollar kamzor ho gaya, aur market expectations ke mutabiq September mein rate cut honay ki ummeed barh gayi. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, market participants Fed ke September meeting mein kam se kam 25 basis points ke rate cut ki price de rahe hain. Yeh tabdeeli yen ki qeemat barhne mein madadgar sabit hui. USD/JPY pair Friday ko 143.90 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis ne bearish bias ko darshaya, jahan pair downtrend line ke niche trade kar raha tha. Lekin, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 level ke upar tha, jo downtrend ke jaari rehne ka ishara deta hai. Potential price movements ke hawale se, USD/JPY pair ko August 5 ko record kiye gaye seven-month low 141.69 ke aas paas support milne ki umeed thi. Upar ki taraf, pair ko 145.00 ke psychological level ke aas paas downtrend line par resistance ka samna karna pad sakta hai, aur us ke baad nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) 145.74 par. Agar 9-day EMA ke upar break hota hai, to yeh potential reversal ka signal ho sakta hai aur resistance zone ke paas 154.50 ki taraf wapas ja sakta hai.

1 se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi. Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai. Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai. Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai, USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend

**USD/JPY Prices Mein Haal Ke Developments**

Chaliye, USDJPY currency pair ka h4 period chart dekhte hain. Filhal, USDJPY currency pair ki trading price 141.16 hai, jo ke pichle din ke opening price se kam hai. Stochastic indicator 5.3.3 is waqt level 20 ke niche hai, jo ke indicate karta hai ke USDJPY currency pair abhi bhi bearish bias dikhata hai. USDJPY currency pair abhi depressed aur kamzor nazar aa raha hai, jaise ke upar wale image mein bhi dikhaya gaya hai. Aaj kuch aise khabrein hain jo market ko affect kar sakti hain. USD index phir se gir raha hai aur kamzor hota ja raha hai, isliye aaj USDJPY currency pair ke bearish trend ko continue karne ki umeed hai. Is situation mein, hum is pair ko bechne ke mauke talash kar sakte hain; sabse zaroori baat ye hai ke sabr rakhein aur market mein enter karne ke liye sahi waqt ka intezaar karein.

**H4 Time Frame Par Trading Strategy:**

Aaj ke liye meri trading strategy yeh hai: Main 141.10 par sell order place karunga, stop loss ko 142.00 par set karunga, aur profit ka target par ke barabar rakhoonga. Mujhe ummeed hai ke aaj subah ka trading journal update meri taraf se madadgar sabit hoga, dusre doston ko samajhne mein asaan hoga, aur market mein entry ka faisla karne mein unke liye ek resource banega. Agar aap aaj ke situation ko dekhen, to lagta hai ke USDJPY 142.0 ke important area ko penetrate karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar yeh important area penetrate ho jata hai, to USDJPY ke liye niche girne ka mauka zaroori hai. Yeh pair wapas se kaafi strong decline dekhne ki potential rakhta hai. Pehle bhi dekha gaya tha ke price upar move karne ki koshish kar rahi thi, aur mid BB area ke upar thi.

**Market Analysis Aur Anticipations:**

USDJPY ki current situation ko dekhte hue, aapko yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke market mein volatility ho sakti hai, aur news aur economic indicators iski price movements ko affect kar sakte hain. USD index ki girawat ke bawajood, agar USDJPY 142.0 ke crucial level ko cross kar jata hai, to yeh bearish trend ko aur bhi strong kar sakta hai. Isliye, bechne ke mauke ko identify karna aur market ke sahi moment ko pakadna bohot zaroori hai.
Aaj ki trading mein, jab bhi aap sell order place karen, to ensure karen ke aap apne stop loss aur profit targets ko accurately set karein. Market ki movements aur economic data ke updates ko closely follow karein, kyunki yeh aapki trading decisions ko direct karenge. Is waqt USDJPY ka trend bearish dikh raha hai, lekin market ki unpredictability ko bhi nazar mein rakhna zaroori hai. Sabr aur sahi analysis se aap apni trading strategy ko successful bana sakte hain.

**Conclusion:**

Toh, aaj ki trading strategy ke liye, main USDJPY ko 141.10 par bechne ka plan kar raha hoon aur stop loss ko 142.00 par rakhoonga. Profit target par ke barabar hoga. Market ke trends aur economic indicators ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai, taake aap timely decisions le sakhein. USDJPY ki current situation aur future prospects ko dekhte hue, aapko behtar trading opportunities mil sakti hain.

rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY is level ke neeche hold nahi kar pata, toh yeh agle support levels ki taraf move kar sakta hai, jo ke possible 168.00 ya us se niche ho sakta hai. Agar support hold karta hai, toh ek rebound ho sakta hai, aur pair pehle ke highs ko test kar sakta hai jo ke 168.70-169.00 ke ird-gird ho sakte hain. D1 moving average line ek trend indicator ka kaam karti hai. Agar USD/JPY is line ke upar rehta hai, toh yeh bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, agar yeh moving average ke neeche sustained trading hoti hai, toh yeh ek trend reversal ya consolidation phase ka ishara ho sakti hai.

USD/JPY pair ne Tuesday ko European session ke shuruati hisson mein modest uptrend dikhaya, trading 143.00 ke aas-paas chal rahi thi. Lekin, strong bullish conviction ki kami ne suggest kiya ke traders significant positions mein commit hone se hesitant the, kyunki crucial US inflation data aane wala tha. Japanese Yen (JPY) ko downward revisions ki wajah se pressure mein rakha gaya, jab ke US Dollar (USD) ne modest gains dikhaye. Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke darmiyan monetary policies ka divergence ne investors ko aggressive bullish bets se roka, jo USD/JPY ke upside ko limit kar raha tha.
Technical perspective se, USD/JPY pair short-term downtrend mein nazar aayi, jo descending channel ke andar recent decline se indicated hota hai. Yeh negative outlook daily chart par deeply negative oscillators ke readings se aur support hota hai, jo suggest karta hai ke kisi bhi potential gains ko limit kiya ja sakta hai. Agar pair 144.00 level ko upar break karta hai, to yeh short-covering rally trigger kar sakta hai, jo 144.55 area ki taraf move lead kar sakta hai. Lekin, significant upward momentum tab tak unlikely hai jab tak pair 145.60 resistance level ko break nahi karta aur 145.00 psychological mark ko reclaim nahi karta. Downside par, 143.20 area immediate support provide karne ki ummeed hai, uske baad 143.00 barrier aur Asian session ke lows ke aas-paas 142.85. Agar USD/JPY in support levels ko break karta hai, to yeh further decline ko signal kar sakta hai, jo 142.00 round figure aur 7-month lows ke aas-paas 141.70-141.65 tak target kar sakta hai. Overall, USD/JPY pair economic factors aur technical indicators ke complex interplay ka samna kar rahi hai. Japanese GDP ke downward revisions ne US dollar ko support diya, lekin monetary policies ka divergence aur technical analysis ne further gains ke liye cautious outlook suggest kiya. Traders ko economic developments aur technical indicators ko closely monitor karna hoga taake pair ke potential direction ka