usd/jpy

USD/JPY Pair ki Technical Analysis ke liye


4-hour chart par, aur do haftay tak downtrend mein trading karne ke baad, is hafta humne ek upward trend dekha hai aur price ne positive close karne ki koshish jaari rakhi hai, jo aglay haftay mein mazeed izafa dikhayegi.

Is hafta, price ne descending price channels ke andar trading shuru ki, jo pichlay do hafton mein price movement ka direction tha, aur hafta ek mazboot support area mein open hua, jo lower channel lines hain.

Price ko support mila aur yeh weekly pivot level aur middle channel lines tak barh gaya, jo price ke girne aur phir se upar uthne ka sabab bana.

Abhi price red channel se bahar trade kar raha hai aur expected hai ke price upper blue channel line tak pohanchne ki koshish karega, jo is hafta ke liye ek positive close maana jaye ga.

Economic side par dekhein to, Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne pichle hafta parliament mein kaha ke agar unke economic forecasts theek sabit hote hain, toh Japanese central bank monetary policy ko adjust kar sakta hai, jo interest rates ko phir se barhane ke liye unki tayari ka ishara hai. Is hafta Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor Ryozo Himeno ne bhi yehi rai di, keh agar economy aur prices current path par chalti rahin, toh central bank interest rates barhaye ga.

Stock trading ke moamlaat mein… Japanese stocks mein izafa hua jab investors Nvidia ke earnings ka intezar kar rahe thay. Trading ke mutabiq, Nikkei 225 index of Japanese shares 0.22% barh kar 38,372 points par band hua, jabke broader Topix index 0.42% barh kar 2,692 points par band hua Wednesday ko, kyunke Japanese stocks ne dosray din bhi straight session mein izafa dikhaya jab investors Nvidia ke earnings report ka intezar kar rahe thay, jo technology aur artificial intelligence mein mazeed izafa ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Asaan Urdu mein, yeh article kuch is tarah se likha ja sakta hai:
Jumay ke din ke shuruwati Asian session mein, yeh currency pair 144.90 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai. Yeh girawat, 143.75 ki recent high ke baad aayi hai, jo ke risk se bachne ke jazbe aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke taraf se mumkin rate hike ke baare mein afwah se pehli thi. Ab, sab ka dhyaan agle hafte ke markazi bank ke aham faislon par hai, jo ke USD/JPY ka agla rukh tay karega.

USD/JPY ke Bunyadi Asrat:

Federal Reserve ki September ki meeting ke liye market ke expectations tabdeel ho rahi hain. CME Group ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, ab 25-basis point rate cut ki probability 88.6% hai, jo ke pehle haftay 94.0% thi. Yeh tabdeeli recent economic data ke baad aayi hai, jo ke expectations se zyada strong growth dikhati hai. US GDP annualized rate pe 2.8% barh gaya, jo pehle ke 1.4% se zyada hai aur 2% ki forecast se bhi better hai. Iske ilawa, July 19 tak ke week ke liye Initial Jobless Claims 235K pe gir gayi, jo pehle 243K thi aur 238K ki anticipated figure se bhi kam hai.

Japan ki taraf, hukoomati afsar khamoshi ikhtiyar kiye hue hain foreign exchange mamlat par. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, aur top currency diplomat Masato Kanda ne koi comment nahi kiya, jaise ke Reuters ne report kiya. July ke economic assessment mein Japanese Cabinet Office ne apni report ko waise hi rakha, lekin aik ehtiyaati nazar daali hai. Hukoomat ne exports ka evaluation downgrade kiya hai, aur is sector mein rukawat ka zikar kiya hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:




Yeh pair 143.46 ke kareeb kaafi support dhoond sakti hai, aur mazeed levels 143.00 ke psychological threshold, 142.80, aur 142.00 par hain. Agar yeh support levels tootte hain, toh tawajju 2023 ke shuruwati waqt ke trendline par hogi, jo ke 149.00 aur 150.00 ke darmiyan hai. Aik wazeh bearish signal us waqt samney ayega jab yeh trendline clear tor par toot jaye, jo aik lambi red candlestick ya kai bearish candlesticks se mark hogi.

Technical Chart Analysis:

Is waqt spot price taqriban 144.90 pe trade ho rahi hai. Daily chart yeh batata hai ke yeh pair aik descending channel test kar raha hai, jo ke bearish bias ke mazid reinforce honay ka ishara deta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 level ke neeche hai, jo yeh batata hai ke currency pair oversold ho sakti hai aur chhoti muddat ke liye rebound kar sakti hai.

USD/JPY currency pair abhi bhi daily chart pe sideways trading pattern dikhata hai. Is waqt ka price action isi range ke andar hai, jisse yeh samajhna mushkil ho raha hai ke yeh pair is direction ko barqarar rakhega ya phir breakout karega. Technical analysis mix signals de raha hai, jahan moving averages sell suggest kar rahe hain, jab ke indicators buy recommend kar rahe hain, jis ki wajah se overall outlook neutral hai. Lagta hai market abhi ke liye sideways pattern mein hi rahegi. America se ek important update aayi hai jo ke negative impact ka ishara deti hai, khaaskar 5 saal ke U.S. Treasury notes ki auction. Doosri taraf, Japan ke bahar se bhi significant news aa rahi hai. In factors ke madde nazar, USD/JPY pair ke aaj sideways movement ko barqarar rakhne ki umeed hai. Selling ke mauqe 144.34 ke support level ke qareeb aa sakte hain, jab ke buying ko 145.26 ke resistance level tak consider kiya ja sakta hai. H4 chart pe triangle formation abhi tak resolve nahi hui, aur is ka faisla kal ya shayad aaj raat tak ho sakta hai.



Agar USD/JPY currency pair 144 ke level se upar jata hai, toh yeh 148 tak bhi move kar sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh support ke qareeb, jo ke 144 par hai, toot jata hai, toh yeh 141.69 tak decline kar sakta hai. Filhal yeh pair trade karne se parheiz karna behtar hoga, khaaskar Asian trading session ke qareeb, kyun ke yeh pair significant volatility aur current price range se breakout kar sakta hai raat bhar mein. US dollar ne pichlay haftay ke losses ko regain kar liya hai, aur yeh strengthening trend kal bhi jaari reh sakti hai, upcoming US economic data releases par depend karta hai. Q2 GDP report aur unemployment benefit figures iss pair ko 200 points tak kisi bhi direction mein move karwa sakti hain.

US dollar ne is hafta Japanese yen ke muqable mein apni position stable rakhi, aur yeh stability ¥145 ke qareebi level par hui. Yeh area charts par aik significant trend line ke qareeb hai, jo isse ahemiyat deta hai. Agar market recover kar ke ¥147.50 level ke upar break kar le, tou yeh recovery ka aghaz ho sakta hai. Is baat ko dekhte hue ke market pehle hi nichey ke side par zyada extend kar gaya tha, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke yehan se aik bounce aa jaye. Lagbhag aik mahine pehle, weekly chart par aik hammer candle bani thi, jo aam tor par aik bullish signal mana jata hai. Iska matlab yeh hota hai ke buyers prices ko support denay ke liye samney aa rahe hain. Is formation ke baad, market ab tak apni position ko banae hue hai, na zyada gain kar raha hai aur na zyada lose. Agar halat yehan se drastically change nahi hoti, tou ek rally ki achi chance hai. Magar agar price ¥142 level ke nichey break karta hai, tou yeh deeper decline ki nishani ho sakti hai, aur phir agla major support level ¥138 ke qareeb hoga.

Bank of Japan ki monetary policy restrictions bhi is scenario mein ahem kirdar ada karti hain. Japan ko bohot se economic challenges ka samna hai, jo central bank ke liye aggressive monetary policy ko tighten karna mushkil banati hain. Yeh restriction yen ke dollar ke muqable mein zyada strong hone se rok sakti hai, jo dollar ki recovery ko support karti hai. Is ke ilawa, jo traders is pair ko hold karte hain, woh interest kamaate hain, jo ke long positions hold karne ke liye additional incentives deta hai.

Akhir mein, jabke USD/JPY pair abhi bhi consolidation ke mode mein hai, yeh bataya ja sakta hai ke agar key resistance levels breach hote hain tou reversal ka potential hai. Dosri taraf, agar critical support ke neeche break hota hai, tou yeh ek significant downside move ka signal de sakta hai. Market abhi aik crossroads par hai aur dono scenarios ab tak play mein hain .

Jaise ke maine pehle bhi bataya tha, mera main reference point senior time frame tha, jahan price behavior ko weekly chart ke hawale se analyze kiya gaya tha. Main aapko yaad dilana chahta hoon ke price action method pehle istemal hui thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ke paas abhi bhi upar jane ka chance hai kyun ke candle ne middle Bollinger Band line ko penetrate kiya hai. Lekin ehtiyat se kaam lena zaroori hai, kyun ke candle ab tak MA50 line ko penetrate nahi kar payi hai. Yahan se ek rebound ho sakta hai jo price ko niche le jaye. Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke yeh scenario play out ho, aur hum price distribution ke agle phase mein dakhil ho jayein jab zyada tar market participants yeh samajhne lagen ke corrective rollback khatam ho gaya hai, aur is point se selling shuru ho jaye. Lekin agar yeh puppeteer trap kaam kar jata hai, toh is scenario ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair bina kisi rollback ke seedha 159.13 tak ja sakta hai, aur agar aisa hota hai, toh market wahan se kafi gir sakti hai
Main predict karta hoon ke USD/JPY abhi bhi rise karega, kyun ke H1 support price 145.88 ab tak break nahi hui hai. Is liye, main recommend karta hoon ke jo log is pair mein trade kar rahe hain, woh sirf buy positions par focus karein. Aap apna take profit target 151.20 par set kar sakte hain aur stop loss 145.45 par rakh sakte

USDJPY ne last few sessions mein very strong seller pressure dikhai hai. Impulsive bearish candles se ye dekhne mein aaya hai, jo EMA 50 aur EMA 100 ke do levels ko penetrate karne mein kamyab rahe. Ye strong indication hai ki bearish trend market ko dominate kar raha hai. Price movement support level 146,429 ko test karta raha hai, jo finally penetrate kiya gaya. Ye bearish movement high level 161,639 se shuru hua, phir decline karta raha until critical support level 146,429 par pahunch gaya. Support level ke penetration se ye dikha hai ki sellers ko market par full control hai, prices ko lower push kar raha hai. Technical analysis se, key support levels ke penetration ke baad bearish trend ka continuation hua hai, especially high trading volume aur negative market sentiment ke saath. Is case mein, EMA 50 aur EMA 100 ko penetrate karne ke baad bearish pressure continue hone ka possibility hai. Next possible target decline ke liye 140,731 ke level par hai. Ye level significant support level hai aur sellers ke liye target ho sakta hai. H1 Hour Timeframe USDJPY H1 timeframe par increasingly strong bearish movement dikha raha hai. EMA 50 aur EMA 100 ke direction se ye dekhne mein aaya hai, jo continue fall kar raha hai, seller dominance ko indicate karta hai. Important support level 151,900 ke penetration ne downward movement ka continuation trigger kiya hai, significant bearish strength ko dikha raha hai. Today's Asian session mein downward trend continue kar raha hai, sellers ko price movements par dominance dikha raha hai. Lekin technical analysis mein, strong bearish movement ke baad correction phase hoti hai, phir main trend continue hoti hai. My current trading plan upward correction ka wait kar raha hai, better sell momentum find karne ke liye. Area jo main watch kar raha hoon sell entry ke liye 146,522 - 147,428 ke aaspaas hai. Ye area potential resistance level hai jo price se retest ki ja

Mere khayal mein, jab USD/JPY ka trading karein, to monitor par nazar jamaye rakhni chahiye. Yeh device kaafi unpredictable behavior dikhaata hai. Yeh daily chart par bohat wazeh hai: kabhi choti candles ki series hoti hai, phir aik unexpected continuation shock, phir hum wapas freeze ho jate hain. Yeh hi hamaray saath hua: guzishta Monday ko aik strong bearish candle bani, phir ek silsila choti flat candles ka jo sideways trend mein chalti rahi. Friday ko unho ne bullish candle mein north ki taraf mod liya. Aur aaj hum MA 18 par mil rahe hain. Tehqeeq ki nazar se, abhi hum do moving averages ke saath pattern par kaam karne ki koshish kar rahe hain: hum MA18 se bahar nikalne ki koshish kar rahe hain, north ki taraf - MA100 ke test par pendulum principle ke mutabiq kaam karne ki koshish kar rahe hain - yeh 152.40 ka level hai. Lekin filhaal, mein intermediate level test ka intezar karunga - yeh 149.36 hai. Neechey diye gaye screenshot se pata chalta hai ki yeh kitna important hai, kyunke hum yahan aksar time mark karte hain. Is par kaam kar ke, phir ek taraf udh jate hain.

Dono mukhtalif structural moving averages floor ke parallel hain. Dono intra-week aur intraday flat mode symbols hain.Cherokee cloud bearish hai. Aur yeh sales direction ko drive kar rahi hai.

Magar, basement indicator bundles mein do khaas buy signals hain: stochastic aur MACD se. Mujhe lagta hai aaj aur kal - USD/JPY north ki taraf correct karega. Aam tor par, market, major pairs, aur canal futures dollar ki success ki taraf focused hain. Bank of Japan ki monetary policy restrictions bhi iss scenario mein aham kirdar ada karti hain. Japan ko maashi mushkilaat ka saamna hai jo central bank ki aggressively monetary policy tighten karne ki salahiyat ko limit karte hain. Yeh restriction yen ko dollar ke muqablay mein ziyada strong hone se rok sakti hain, jis se dollar recovery ka imkan barqarar rehta hai. Iske ilawa, pair ko hold karne wale traders ko bhi interest milta hai, jo long positions ko hold karne ke liye mazeed incentives provide karta hai.

Mukhtasir mein, jabke USD/JPY pair consolidation ki ehteyati soorat-e-haal mein hai, reversal ke imkanaat ba wazeh hain agar key resistance levels breach ho jate hain. Dusri taraf, critical support ke break hone se significant move down ho sakta hai. Market is waqt crossroads par hai aur dono scenarios ab bhi play mein hain.

US dollar is haftay Japanese yen ke muqablay mein stable raha, aur ¥145 ke aas-paas range mein trade kar raha hai. Yeh stabilization aik aham trend line ke ird gird ho rahi hai, jo is area ko charts par ahmiyat deti hai. Agar market recover kare aur ¥147.50 level ko breach kar le, to yeh recovery ke aaghaz ka signal ho sakta hai. Yeh dekh kar ke market pehle hi downside par kaafi extend ho chuka tha, in levels se bounce hona unexpected nahi hoga.

Takreeban aik mahina pehle, weekly chart par ek hammer candle bani thi, jo aam tor par ek bullish signal maana jata hai, is se pata chalta hai ke buyers prices ko support karne ke liye enter ho rahe hain. Iss formation ke baad, market apni position hold kar raha hai, na zyada gain kar raha hai aur na hi koi significant loss ho raha hai. Agar maujooda soorat-e-haal mein koi bari tabdeeli nahi aati, to achi chance hai ke hum rally dekh sakte hain. Lekin agar price 142 level se neeche break kar jaye, to yeh gehri decline ki taraf ishara kar sakta hai jahan agla major support level 138 ke aas-paas hoga.

USD/JPY pair ke higher jany ke imkanaat zyada hain. Hourly chart par pair uptrend mein hai, aur price Ichimoku cloud ke upar hai, jo upward momentum ko zahir karta hai. Stochastic indicator resistance zone mein hai. Guzishta trading session mein, pair northward move karta raha, bull pivot level ke upar consolidate kiya aur ab 146.16 par trade ho raha hai. Intraday growth ke liye reference points classic pivot levels par resistance hain. Mera andaza hai ke Monday ko trend maujooda levels ke upar continue karega, aur agar 146.91 resistance level break ho gaya, to pair mein nayi rally start ho sakti hai aur 149.48 area ki resistance line ke upar northward movement jaari reh sakti hai. Agar bears market mein wapas aate hain, to unke reference points chart ke iss hissay par 142.91 ka support level hoga.

H-4 Chart Technical Outlook USD/JPY

USD/JPY pair ke higher jany ke imkanaat zyada hain. Hourly chart par pair uptrend mein hai, aur price Ichimoku cloud ke upar hai, jo upward momentum ko zahir karta hai. Stochastic indicator resistance zone mein hai. Guzishta trading session mein, pair northward move karta raha, bull pivot level ke upar consolidate kiya aur ab 146.16 par trade ho raha hai. Intraday growth ke liye reference points classic pivot levels par resistance hain. Mera andaza hai ke Monday ko trend maujooda levels ke upar continue karega, aur agar 146.91 resistance level break ho gaya, to pair mein nayi rally start ho sakti hai aur 149.48 area ki resistance line ke upar northward movement jaari reh sakti hai. Agar bears market mein wapas aate hain, to unke reference points chart ke iss hissay par 142.91 ka support level hoga.

Jaise ke maine pehle bhi bataya tha, mera main reference point senior time frame tha, jahan price behavior ko weekly chart ke hawale se analyze kiya gaya tha. Main aapko yaad dilana chahta hoon ke price action method pehle istemal hui thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ke paas abhi bhi upar jane ka chance hai kyun ke candle ne middle Bollinger Band line ko penetrate kiya hai. Lekin ehtiyat se kaam lena zaroori hai, kyun ke candle ab tak MA50 line ko penetrate nahi kar payi hai. Yahan se ek rebound ho sakta hai jo price ko niche le jaye. Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke yeh scenario play out ho, aur hum price distribution ke agle phase mein dakhil ho jayein jab zyada tar market participants yeh samajhne lagen ke corrective rollback khatam ho gaya hai, aur is point se selling shuru ho jaye. Lekin agar yeh puppeteer trap kaam kar jata hai, toh is scenario ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair bina kisi rollback ke seedha 159.13 tak ja sakta hai, aur agar aisa hota hai, toh market wahan se kafi gir sakti hai Main predict karta hoon ke USD/JPY abhi bhi rise karega, kyun ke H1 support price 145.88 ab tak break nahi hui hai. Is liye, main recommend karta hoon ke jo log is pair mein trade kar rahe hain, woh sirf buy positions par focus karein. Aap apna take profit target 151.20 par set kar sakte hain aur stop loss 145.45 par rakh sakte

Hamari guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ke tajziya par markooz hogi. USD/JPY currency pair ne trading week ko upward momentum ke sath close kiya, aur 146.23 ke aas-paas finish kiya. Pair growth trajectory me hai, jise moving averages support karte hain jo bullish trend ko signal dete hain. Price ne 145.01 ka mark cross kar liya hai, key resistance levels ko break kar diya hai, jo US dollar ke liye intense buying pressure ko darshata hai aur current levels se age upward movement ka ishara hai. Hum agle haftay me prices ko upar push karne ki koshish ki umeed karte hain, jo 147.51 ke aas-paas ke resistance level ko test karegi. Ek pullback ho sakta hai, jo pair ki rate ko 145.99 ki taraf kam kar sakta hai. Ya phir, pair hafte ke shuruat me 146.01 ke aas-paas consolidation zone me wapas aa sakti hai. H4 chart par, USD/JPY pair 151 mark ke bilkul neeche trading kar raha hai, lekin Friday ke session ne Ichimoku Cloud indicator ko breach karne ki ijaazat di, jo ek bullish engulfing pattern aur ongoing upward trend ko darshata hai. Is ke bawajood, price Ichimoku Cloud ke upper boundary ke qareeb hai aur abhi tak convincingly break nahi hui, lekin currency pair ke growth target is phase me 147.93 resistance ki taraf ek potential rise ko suggest karta hai. Wahan se ek reversal ho sakta hai, jo price ko lagbhag 141.81 tak neeche push kar sakta hai. Chart bears aur bulls ke beech ongoing battle ko reflect karta hai, jahan bulls price ko Ichimoku Cloud ke upar le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Lekin, abhi tak koi definitive direction nahi hai, price slightly upar aur neeche cloud ke aas-paas fluctuate kar rahi hai. H4 chart par CCI indicator buying activity me peak ko suggest karta hai aur downward turn karna shuru ho gaya hai, jo chart par bhi visible hai, kyunki closing price Ichimoku Cloud ke upper boundary se thodi neeche aayi hai.

Tuesday ko, spot price 0.40% se zyada neeche trade kar raha hai, jo July 10 ko pohanchne waale peak levels se bearish trend reversal ko continue kar raha hai. Currency pair, jo abhi 143.96 ke aas paas hai, yeh dikhata hai ke short-term aur shayad medium-term trends bearish outlook ki taraf shift ho gaye hain. Jaise ke maqaula hai, "the trend is your friend," abhi ke liye odds downward movement ko in time frames mein continue karne ko favor karte hain.
USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Reuters ke mutabiq, ruling party ke senior official Toshimitsu Motegi ne Bank of Japan (BoJ) se kaha hai ke woh monetary policy ko normalize karne ke liye gradual interest rate hikes ke plans ke hawalay se zyada wazeh communication dein. Wazir-e-Azam Fumio Kishida ne bhi is raye ko support kiya, aur yeh kaha ke aisa step Japan ki growth-driven economy ki taraf shift ko support karega. Lekin, recent economic data mixed picture pesh karta hai. Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI July mein 49.2 par aa gaya, jo ke June ke 50.0 se neeche hai, aur market expectations se bhi miss karta hai, jo April ke baad pehli dafa factory activity mein decline ko zahir karta hai. Iske baraks, Services PMI 49.4 se barh kar 53.9 ho gaya, jo April ke baad service sector mein sab se tez growth hai.

Economic landscape ko mazeed complicate karte hue, Japanese Cabinet Office ne July ke liye apni economic assessment ko barqarar rakha lekin apni mahana report mein ehtiyat se bharpoor outlook diya. Hukumat ne exports ki evaluation ko bhi downgrade kiya, jo stagnation ko note kar raha tha. Japan Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) mein June mein saal dar saal 3.0% ka izafa hua, jo pehle 2.7% tha, aur yeh over nine years mein sab se tez inflation ki raftar ko zahir karta hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Technically, agar 50-week Simple Moving Average ke neeche breach hota hai aur lagbhag 143.50 par major uptrend line ke neeche ek faislay karnay wala break hota hai, to yeh long-term trend mein reversal ka signal dega. Aisa move possible downside targets ko 141.61 ke aas paas khol sakta hai, aur mazeed support 136.88 par milega. Iske baraks, USD/JPY buyers ke liye zaroori hoga ke woh pair ko wapas 146.00 level ke upar push karein aur prices ko Kumo cloud ke upar sustain karein.

USDJPY currency pair mein ek aham tabdeeli hui hai, jahan sellers ne dobara se control hasil kar liya hai aur price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh downward movement bears ke liye ek aham recovery hai, jinhon ne apne peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain aur market par apna dabao barhaya hai. Recent price action yeh dikhata hai ke bearish sentiment mein izafa ho gaya hai, jiss ne pair ke pehle ke kuch gains ko ulat diya hai. 146.86 level tak girawat yeh zahir karti hai ke sellers ki taqat barh gayi hai. Pehle bulls ne price ko ooper push kiya tha, lekin ab sellers market mein wapas aa gaye hain aur pehle ke bullish momentum ko khatam kar diya hai. Yeh tabdeeli yeh suggest karti hai ke market participants ab USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziada raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai.
Technical taur par, agar 50-week Simple Moving Average ke neeche aur major uptrend line jo ke 143.50 ke aas-paas hai ke neeche breach hota hai to yeh long-term trend ke reversal ka signal hoga. Aise mein potential downside targets 141.61 ke aas-paas honge, aur further support 136.88 par hoga. Dusri taraf, agar USD/JPY buyers ko control wapas chahiye to unhein pair ko 146.00 level ke upar push karna hoga aur Kumo cloud ke upar sustain karna hoga

### Japanese Yen Trading Analysis aur Tips

**Price Test aur MACD Indicator:** Jab price 144.60 ka test kiya, MACD indicator already zero mark se kaafi niche aa chuka tha, jisne pair ke aage ke downward potential ko limit kar diya. Is wajah se maine dollar nahi becha aur pair ke downward movement ko miss kar diya. Halankeh US se acchi data ke bawajood, American dollar ko zyada support nahi mila. Pair ki decline kal se poori tarah se offset ho gayi, aaj ke Asian session ke dauran purchases se. Aisa lagta nahi ke yen ka strengthening Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino ke speech ki wajah se hai, isliye dollar ke bears shayad European session ke dauran jaldi se back karenge. Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada tar scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par rely karunga.

**Buy Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj, main USD/JPY ko 144.69 ke entry point par buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon, jo green line se chart par plot kiya gaya hai, with the goal to rise to 145.32, jo thicker green line se chart par plot kiya gaya hai. 145.32 ke area par, main long positions exit karunga aur opposite direction mein short positions open karunga, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction. Aaj pair ke upward correction ke framework mein rise karne ki ummeed hai. Important: Buy karne se pehle, ensure karna ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar hai aur us se rise karna shuru kar raha hai.

**Scenario No. 2:** Main USD/JPY ko aaj bhi buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 144.30 ke do consecutive tests hon, jab MACD indicator oversold area mein hoga. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market ke upward turnaround ki taraf le jayega. Hum 144.69 aur 145.32 ke opposite levels tak growth ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

**Sell Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Main USD/JPY ko aaj sirf tab bechne ka plan kar raha hoon jab 144.30 ka level test ho, jo pair mein tezi se decline laayega. Sellers ke liye key target 143.76 hoga, jahan main short positions exit karunga aur immediately opposite direction mein long positions open karunga, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction. USD/JPY par pressure kabhi bhi wapas aa sakta hai, kyunki dollar ke bearish market khatam nahi hue hain. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karna ke MACD indicator zero mark se niche hai aur decline hona shuru kar raha hai.

**Scenario No. 2:** Main USD/JPY ko aaj bhi bechne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 144.69 ke do consecutive tests hon, jab MACD indicator overbought area mein hoga. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market ke downturn ki taraf le jayega. Hum 144.30 aur 143.76 ke opposite levels tak decline ki ummeed kar sakte

USDJPY currency pair mein ek aham tabdeeli hui hai, jahan sellers ne dobara se control hasil kar liya hai aur price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh downward movement bears ke liye ek aham recovery hai, jinhon ne apne peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain aur market par apna dabao barhaya hai. Recent price action yeh dikhata hai ke bearish sentiment mein izafa ho gaya hai, jiss ne pair ke pehle ke kuch gains ko ulat diya hai. 146.86 level tak girawat yeh zahir karti hai ke sellers ki taqat barh gayi hai. Pehle bulls ne price ko ooper push kiya tha, lekin ab sellers market mein wapas aa gaye hain aur pehle ke bullish momentum ko khatam kar diya hai. Yeh tabdeeli yeh suggest karti hai ke market participants ab USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziada raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai.
Technical taur par, agar 50-week Simple Moving Average ke neeche aur major uptrend line jo ke 143.50 ke aas-paas hai ke neeche breach hota hai to yeh long-term trend ke reversal ka signal hoga. Aise mein potential downside targets 141.61 ke aas-paas honge, aur further support 136.88 par hoga. Dusri taraf, agar USD/JPY buyers ko control wapas chahiye to unhein pair ko 146.00 level ke upar push karna hoga aur Kumo cloud ke upar sustain karna hoga

Japan ke consumer confidence indicator ke data release hua jo maashiyaatdaan ke andazay se thoda kam raha aur market dynamics par kisi bhi khaas asar ka sabab nahi bana. Pair lagta hai ke sideways trade karta rahega, jis se yen ki volatility wapas normal ho rahi hai. Intraday strategy ke liye, mein zyada bharosa karunga Scenario No. 1 aur 2 par.Aaj mera plan hai USD/JPY ko kharidne ka jab yeh 144.82 ke entry point par ponche, jo chart par green line se plot ki gayi hai, aur target 145.45 tak jane ka hai, jo chart par moti green line se plot ki gayi hai. 145.45 ke area mein, mein long positions exit karne ka irada rakhta hoon aur opposite direction mein short positions open karne ka plan hai, jismein level se 30-35 pips ki movement expect ki ja sakti hai. Aaj pair ke upar jaane ki ummed hai upward correction ke tahat. Important: Kharidne se pehle, ye yaqeen kar lein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur wahan se rise kar raha ho. Mein USD/JPY ko kharidne ka plan karta hoon jab 144.47 ke do musalsal test ho aur MACD indicator oversold area mein ho . Yeh pair ki downward potential ko limit kar dega aur market mein ulta upturn layega. Hum growth expect kar sakte hain opposite levels 144.82 aur 145.55 tak.Mein aaj USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan karta hoon sirf us surat mein jab 144.47 ke level ka test ho, jo chart par red line se plot kiya gaya hai, jisse pair mein tezi se decline hoga. Sellers ka key target 143.76 ka level ho ga jahan mein short positions exit karne ka irada rakhta hoon aur foran se opposite direction mein long positions open karne ka plan hai, jismein level se 20-25 pips ki movement expect ki ja sakti hai. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, kyun ke dollar ke bearish market abhi tak khatam nahi hui. Important: Bechne se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se neeche ho aur decline shuru kar raha ho Mein USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan karta hoon jab 144.82 ke do musalsal test ho aur MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ki upward potential ko limit kar dega aur market mein ulta downturn layega. Hum decline expect kar sakte hain opposite level 144.47 aur 143.76 tak