USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Price test of 147.13 tab hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se kaafi niche gaya tha, jo ke pair ke downward potential ko limit kar raha tha. Is wajah se maine dollar ko sell nahi kiya. Kuch der baad, 147.13 ka dobara test hua jab MACD oversold area mein tha, jo ke dollar kharidne ka mauqa de raha tha scenario No. 2 ke mutabiq. Afsos, U.S. producer price index mein girawat ki khabar ne U.S. dollar ko support nahi kiya, is liye ye signal puri tarah se realize nahi ho saka. Aaj, pehle aadha din mein pair ke thoda recover hone ke chances hain, lekin risks abhi bhi dollar ke mazeed girne aur yen ke strong hone ke hain, kyun ke hum U.S. Consumer Price Index ke important data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Hum isko detail mein afternoon forecast mein discuss karenge, lekin abhi ke liye, behtar hoga ke mazeed favourable prices ka intezar kiya jaye dollar ko sell karne ke liye. Intraday strategy ke liye, mein zyada rely karunga scenarios No. 1 aur 2 ko implement karne par.
**Buy Signals**

**Scenario No. 1**: Aaj mein USD/JPY kharidne ka plan kar raha hoon jab price entry point 147.45 ko pohanchay, jo ke chart par green line se dikhaya gaya hai, aur target hoga 148.13 tak uthane ka jo ke chart par thick green line se dikhaya gaya hai. 148.13 par pohanch kar mein long positions exit karunga aur opposite direction mein short positions open karunga, expecting 30-35 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. Aaj pair ke upar uthne ke chances hain correction ke hisay mein. Lekin jitna pair upar jayega, dollar ko sell karna utna hi attractive hoga. Important: Kharidne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur usse rise karna shuru ho.

Mein aaj USD/JPY kharidne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 146.76 ka do martaba test hota hai jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Ye pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market ke reverse upturn ko lead karega. Hum growth expect kar sakte hain opposite levels 147.45 aur 148.13 tak.



Aaj mein USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho

USD/JPY ke trades aur tips ka analysis

147.13 ke price test ne MACD indicator ke significantly downward move se limit kiya, jo pair ke downward potential ko limit kar raha tha. Is liye, maine dollar sell nahi kiya. Kuch der baad, 147.13 ke dobara test ne MACD ke oversold area mein chance diya scenario No. 2 ke liye dollar buy karne ke liye. Lekin, U.S. producer price index ke decline ki news ne U.S. dollar ko support nahi kiya, is liye ye signal fully realize nahi hua.

Aaj, pair ko first half of the day mein slightly recover hone ka chance hai, lekin risks abhi bhi dollar decline aur yen strengthening ke liye lean kar raha hai, kyunkay hum U.S. Consumer Price Index ke crucial data ka wait kar rahe hain. Hum iske bare mein forecast for the afternoon mein zyada detail mein discuss karenge, lekin abhi ke liye, patient rehna aur more favorable prices ke liye wait karna behtar hai dollar sell karne ke liye.

Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenario No. 1 aur 2 ko implement karne par zyada rely karunga.

Buy signals

Scenario No. 1. Aaj, main USD/JPY buy karunga jab price 147.45 ke entry point par pohonche, jo green line se plotted hai chart par, 148.13 ke goal ke liye, jo thicker green line se plotted hai chart par. 148.13 ke qareeb, main long positions exit karunga aur short ones open karunga opposite direction mein, expecting 30-35 pips movement opposite direction se us level par. Aaj, pair ko upward correction ke liye rise hone ka chance hai. Lekin pair jitna higher, dollar sell karne ke liye utna attractive hai.

Important: Buying se pehle, ensure karna MACD indicator zero mark ke above hai aur usse rise kar raha hai.

Scenario No. 2. Main aaj USD/JPY buy karunga agar 146.76 ke do consecutive tests hote hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein hai. Ye pair ke downward potential ko limit kar dega aur reverse market upturn lead karega. Hum 147.45 aur 148.13 ke opposite levels par growth expect kar sakte hain.

Sell signals

Scenario No. 1. Main aaj USD/JPY sell karunga sirf 146.76 ke test ke baad, jo pair ko rapid decline kar dega. Sellers ke liye key target 145.81 hoga, jahan main short positions exit karunga aur immediately long positions open karunga opposite direction mein, expecting 20-25 pips movement opposite direction se us level par. USD/JPY par pressure return aa sakta hai kabhi bhi, especially unsuccessful correction ke case mein first half of the day mein aur daily high test karne mein failure.

Important: Selling se pehle, ensure karna MACD indicator zero mark ke below hai aur decline kar raha hai.

Scenario No. 2. Main aaj USD/JPY sell karunga agar 147.45 ke do consecutive price tests hote hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein hai. Ye pair ke upward potential ko limit kar dega aur reverse market downturn lead karega. Hum 146.76 aur 145.81 ke opposite level par decline expect kar sakte hain

Is waqt ke analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair 50-day moving average (MA50) se upar trade kar raha hai lekin abhi bhi 200-day moving average (MA200) se neeche hai. Yeh setup short-term aur long-term trends ke darmiyan ek divergence ko show karta hai. Khaas taur par, price ka MA50 se upar hona immediate upward momentum ko zahir karta hai, jo short-term mein bullish bias ki nishani hai. Magar, yeh baat ke price abhi bhi MA200 se neeche hai, broader context mein bearish sentiment ke barqarar rehne ko zahir karti hai, jo ke pair ke key resistance levels ke qareeb aanay par dobara dominate kar sakta hai.USD/JPY pair ka MA50 se upar hona short-term strength ko reflect karta hai. Yeh is baat ka izhar hai ke filhal buyers control mein hain aur price ko upar le ja rahe hain. Magar, traders ko ehtiyaat karni chahiye jab price MA200 ke qareeb aaye. Historically, MA200 aik significant trend indicator hota hai; agar price is level se upar break karne mein nakam rehta hai, to yeh broader downtrend ke dobara se shuru hone ka signal de sakta hai, jisme sellers phir se dominate kar sakte hain. In moving averages ke darmiyan yeh interplay bullish aur bearish forces ke ongoing battle ko highlight karta hai, isliye in levels ko closely watch karna zaroori hai.

Immediate support level MA50 ke qareeb hone ka imkaan hai. Agar price is level se neeche jata hai, to yeh short-term bullish scenario ko negate kar sakta hai aur mazid declines ke liye raasta bana sakta hai. Yeh support level bulls ke liye aik critical line of defense hai aur isme kisi bhi weakness ke signs ko monitor karna zaroori hai.Upar ki taraf, resistance ka imkaan 148.50 se 149.00 ke range mein hai. Agar price in levels se decisively break kar jata hai, to yeh further buying opportunities ka signal de sakta hai, jo ke higher resistance zones ke retest tak le ja sakti hai. Magar, agar yeh levels surpass karne mein nakami hoti hai, to yeh ek reversal trigger kar sakta hai, jo longer-term bearish outlook ko reaffirm karega.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) ek aur important indicator hai jisko dekhna chahiye. Agar RSI 50 se upar hai, to yeh bullish momentum ko confirm karta hai, jo further gains ke liye case ko support karta hai. Magar, agar RSI overbought territory mein chala jata hai (70 se upar), to yeh is baat ki nishani ho sakti hai ke pair ek correction ke liye tayar hai, kyunke bullish momentum overextended ho sakta hai.Volume analysis price movements ko additional context deti hai. Agar upward move ke dauran trading volume barh rahi ho, to yeh current trend ki strength ko confirm karti hai, jo yeh suggest karti hai ke buyers confident hain. Wahi agar volume kam ho raha ho, to yeh upward momentum ke kamzor hone ki nishani ho sakti hai, jo ek reversal ka signal de sakta hai. USD/JPY pair filhal short-term bullish trend show kar raha hai, jo ke MA50 ke upar position se driven hai. Magar, long-term bearish outlook jo ke price ka MA200 se neeche rehna indicate karta hai, usse nazarandaz nahi karna chahiye. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels ke saath, RSI aur trading volume ko closely monitor karna chahiye, taake ongoing trend ki strength ko gauge kar sakein aur potential reversals ko anticipate kar sakein. Yeh mixed technical landscape yeh suggest karta hai ke gains ke opportunities hain, lekin ehtiyaat ki zaroorat hai, khaaskar jab pair significant resistance levels ke qareeb aaye.

W1 period chart par USDJPY currency pair ka nazar daalain. Is senior weekly chart par dekh sakte hain ke price pichle kuch hafton mein tezi se gir gayi hai. Iski technical indicators mein sab se aham bearish divergence hai MACD indicator par. Lekin doosra indicator, CCI, bhi upar ke end par choti bearish divergence dikhata hai. Girawat ke peeche kuch fundamental wajah bhi hain. Bank of Japan ko apni currency ki kamzori bardasht nahi ho rahi thi; billionon ka injection bhi kaam nahi aya aur interest rate barhane ki zaroorat padi. Iske baad bade paimane par girawat shuru hui. Girawat ke doran 151.90 ka level tut gaya aur phir ascending line bhi. Price lagbhag 140.25 ke support level tak pohnch gayi, lekin thoda kam. Ek upar ki taraf correction aayi, aur pata chala ke broken ascending line ke niche se touch hua, yahan se ek nayi girawat ka daur shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin CCI indicator confuse kar raha hai, jo lower overheating zone mein deep chala gaya hai aur nikalne ki tayyari mein hai. Upar ki taraf rollback aur gehra ho sakta hai, kyunki pichle hafte bhi ek typical growth candle ke sath band hui thi, jaise hammer ya pin bar. Is hafte bhi growth ke attempts hue hain, lekin ab tak zyada door nahi ja paaye hain

H4 chart par dekh sakte hain ke price sideways range mein move kar rahi hai; kal ise resistance level 147.73 ke upar press kiya gaya tha. Upar break karne ki koshish hui, lekin successful nahi hui. Phir se range ke middle mein wapas aa gayi. Aaj ke liye kuch khaas news hain: 15:30 Moscow time - USA ka Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core Consumer Price Index (CPI). 17:30 - US crude oil reserves

Japanese yen ne local highs tak pohnchne ke baad rollback shuru kar diya, jabke trading mein bohot zyada utar-chadhav dekhne ko mile. Price ne 141.88 par kafi achi support payi, wahan se upar uth kar 147.45 tak pohnch gaya. Is tarah se jo reduction ka tajweez diya gaya tha, wo abhi tak nazar nahi aaya aur chalu hai. Is dauran, price chart ne super trendy green zone mein enter kiya, jo yeh darshata hai ke buyers apni activity roknay lage hain.
Markets agle hafte naye inflation data ka intezar kar rahi hain, kyunki US mein aur price declines ki ummeed hai. Agle hafte teen indicators release honge jo US consumers ki halat par roshni dalenge. Ye indices hain US producer prices, US consumer prices, aur US wholesale price inflation index. Zyada tar market expectations yeh hain ke CPI, jo ke teen mein se sabse ahm indicator hai, wo record 3.00% tak gir sakta hai.

Prices filhal weekly highs ke paas se clearly rise ho rahi hain. Key support area test ho raha hai aur significant pressure ke neeche hai, lekin ye quotes ko upar nahi chadhne de raha, jo ke downward vector ko priority de raha hai. Saath hi, current phase of corrective recovery ne pair ko 147.45 par growth sustain karne aur apne downward intentions ko confirm karne ka mauka nahi diya, 145.81 ke niche break karna zaroori hai, jahan key resistance boundaries honge. Is level ka retest aur baad mein down reversal ek naye wave ki raah banayega jo 140.80 aur 137.72 ke beech ke area ko target karega

Japanese Yen (JPY) ki taqat barh rahi hai kyunki BoJ ke zyada rate hike ke chances badh gaye hain. Lekin, political uncertainty ki wajah se Yen ko challenges ka samna karna pad sakta hai; Prime Minister Fumio Kishida September mein dobara election ke liye nahi chaleinge, jo unki prime ministership ko effectively khatam kar dega.

US Dollar (USD) ko pressure ka saamna karna pad raha hai, jiska sabab US Treasury yields ka girna aur Fed rate cut ke badhte hue bets hain. Japanese Yen (JPY) ne Friday ko US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein rebound kiya, jo shayad Japan ke second-quarter GDP ke recent growth ki wajah se hua, jo BoJ ke near-term interest rate hike ke possibility ko support karta hai.

Lekin, JPY ko Japan mein political uncertainty ke wajah se challenges ka samna karna pad sakta hai, kyunki reports ke mutabiq Prime Minister Fumio Kishida September mein party leader ke liye dobara election nahi karenge, jo unki prime ministership ka term khatam kar dega.

USD/JPY pair ne niche move kiya hai kyunki US Dollar ne lower Treasury yields ke beech apni ground kho di hai. Iske ilawa, traders CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq September ke liye 25 basis point rate reduction ko fully price in kar rahe hain.

Phir bhi, Greenback ko recent better-than-expected US economic data se support mila hai, jo US mein recession ke concerns ko kam karta hai. Iske alawa, preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August aur Building Permits for July ko North American session ke doran dekha jayega. USD/JPY ne trend ko reverse kiya hai aur ab short-term mein upar ki taraf move kar raha hai. Halankeh isne abc correction complete kiya, lekin iske baad decline nahi hui, balki higher break kiya.

USD/JPY ne shayad apne short-term downtrend ko reverse kar diya hai aur ab higher highs aur higher lows ka naya sequence establish kar raha hai. "Trend is your friend" ke mutabiq, yeh suggest karta hai ke short-term mein bullish bias maujood hai. Trend ka change tab hua jab pair ne abc correction ke complete hone ke bawajood rise karna jaari rakha, jo normally pullback ke end aur dominant downtrend ke resume hone ka signal hota hai. Lekin, USD/JPY ke case mein, pair decline karne mein fail hua aur sideways trade kiya, phir August 15 ko decisive higher break kiya. Friday ko USD/JPY 148.80 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Daily chart analysis ke mutabiq, pair nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke upar hai, jo short-term bullish trend ko signal karta hai. Phir bhi, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 ke neeche hai, aur ek additional rise bullish momentum ko confirm karega.

Support levels ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair ko immediate support nine-day EMA par mil sakta hai, jo lagbhag 148.09 ke aas-paas hai. Agar pair is level se niche girta hai, to bearish outlook ko majbooti mil sakti hai aur pair ko seven-month low 141.69 ke taraf le ja sakta hai jo 5 August ko record hua tha. Agar decline continue hoti hai, to pair next support level 140.25 ke kareeb aa sakti hai.

Upside ke liye, USD/JPY pair 50-day EMA ko 153.08 par target kar sakta hai, aur resistance level 154.50 ko test karne ki possibility hai, jo pehle throwback support se current pullback resistance mein transition ho gaya hai.

Wave c ke top ke upar break karne se indicate hota hai ke short-term trend shayad bullish hai aur isliye rise continue hone ke zyada chances hain. 100-period Simple Moving Average (blue) abhi gains ko cap kar raha hai lekin iske upar close karne se probably continuation higher ko confirm kiya jayega target 150.90 (August 1 swing high), uske baad 151.94 (July 25 swing low) aur phir shayad 155.22 (July 30 swing high).

Woh USD/JPY currency pair ki pricing movements ka live analysis karte hain. USD/JPY ko 148.89-149.49 ke resistance zone mein bechne ka intezar tha, lekin aaj ke news ke baad US dollar kamzor hogaya. Kal aur girne ka imkaan hai agar US inflation data umeed par poora na utra. Daily time frame ko dekh kar yeh saaf hai ke yeh pattern bar bar aa raha hai, jismein candles ke upper shadows yeh batate hain ke sellers price barhne ka intezar nahi kar rahe aur bech rahe hain. Yeh downward pressure ke barhne ki nishani hai. Technical perspective se dekha jaye toh 147th mark bohot ahem hai. Agar USD/JPY 148 se zyada hota toh downward trend rukh jata. Buyers ko phir se significant sell orders ka samna karna pada. 148.09 level cross karne ke liye mazid buying momentum chahiye. Kharab US fundamental data bhi dollar ki girawat ka sabab bana, jo kisi bhi bullish movement ko nullify kar gaya

Ek technical triangle formation se buying interest mein izafa ka ishara milta hai. Is liye speculation se bachna aur market ko observe karna behtar hai. Wedge pattern yahan apply nahi hota kyun ke fifth wave nahi hai, aur current decline se potential wedge ka bhi invalidation ho jata hai. Slope flat hai, jo wedge ke liye typical nahi, lekin triangle ke liye characteristic hai. Triangle tab zaahir hui jab pair kam az kam 147.84 tak pohncha aur phir ghat gaya. Yeh pair shayad 144-146 range mein phir se aaye. Lekin, pair ka zyada gehra decline mumkin nahi lagta. Agar market downward trend par chalta hai toh ek average fall expected hai. Market mein Iran ke Israel par hamle ka intezar hai, jiske baad Israel ka jawab hoga. Aise scenario mein, gold ka peak hoga aur USD/JPY thoda sa dip karega. Lekin agar Iran sach mein retaliate karta hai, toh yen mazid mazboot hoga, jisse USD/JPY aur niche girayega, aur gold ke prices bhi upar jayenge

USD/JPY:

Good evening, dear forum fellows and visitors from all around the world. Aap sab kaise hain aaj? Umeed karta hoon ke aap sab achi spirits mein hain aur apni trading activities ka lutf utha rahe hain. Aaj, main aap se USD/JPY currency pair ka analysis share karna chahunga.

Pichlay chand trading dino mein, USD/JPY pair ne apne overall behavior mein zyada tabdeeli nahi dikhayi, jaisa ke technical analysis se zahir hota hai. Yeh pair ek well-defined range mein trade kar raha hai, jo ke consolidation ke period ko reflect kar raha hai, na ke kisi clear trend direction ko. Yeh range-bound movement is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke market participants wait-and-see mode mein hain, aur mumkin hai ke woh further economic data ya central bank signals ka intezar kar rahe hain pehle ke significant moves karen.

Jab hum USD/JPY ke attached chart ko dekhte hain, to kuch technical indicators wazeh hotay hain. Sabse pehle, yeh pair key support aur resistance levels ke qareeb hover kar raha hai, aur na bulls aur na bears kisi decisive advantage ko hasil kar pa rahe hain. Yeh balance of power ne price ko relatively stable rakha hai, lekin yeh bhi indicate karta hai ke ek potential breakout ho sakta hai jab koi catalyst saamne aayega.

Moving averages, khaaskar 50-day aur 200-day, iss waqt flat ya sirf slight inclines dikhate hain, jo ke lack of a strong directional bias ko further confirm karta hai. RSI (Relative Strength Index) neutral zone mein hai, kareeb 50 mark ke aas paas hover kar raha hai, jo aam tor par lack of momentum in either direction ko suggest karta hai. Yeh neutral RSI pair ke overall range-bound nature ke sath align karta hai, aur yeh zahir karta hai ke traders abhi bhi undecided hain.



Iske ilawa, MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator bhi isi tarah ki picture of indecision dikhata hai, jahan MACD line aur signal line closely intertwined hain, jo ke buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan ongoing tug-of-war ko reflect karta hai.

Agar fundamental perspective se dekha jaye, to market ki indecision ko dono United States aur Japan se milne wale mixed economic signals se attributed kiya ja sakta hai. Jahan U.S. Federal Reserve ne apni hawkish stance on interest rates maintain rakhi hai, signaling potential further tightening, wahan Bank of Japan apni ultra-loose monetary policy par committed hai. Yeh divergence in monetary policies ne USD/JPY pair par push-pull effect create kar diya hai, jo ke isko ek clear trend establish karne se rok raha hai.

Akhir mein, yeh ke USD/JPY pair iss waqt consolidation phase mein hai, aur pichlay chand dino mein direction mein koi significant tabdeeli nahi hui. Traders ko aane wale economic data releases aur central bank communications ko closely monitor karna chahiye, kyun ke yeh next significant move ke liye zaroori impetus provide kar sakte hain. Tab tak, yeh prudent ho sakta hai ke wait-and-see approach adopt ki jaye, aur chart mein highlighted key technical levels par close nazar rakhi jaye.
Good luck, apka din acha guzray.

Haal hi mein, Bank of Japan ne elaan kiya ke wo interest rates nahi barhaye ga. Is faislay ne market mein khaasi halchal paida ki hai. Yeh bhi kaha gaya ke interest rates sirf March 2025 tak hi barhaaye jayenge. Magar kuch Bank of Japan ke members ne yeh bhi kaha ke mazeed interest rate hikes aur monetary policy ko normal karne ki gunjaish bhi mojood hai.
Peer ke din, USDJPY pair ne upward trend dikhaya. Meri tarjeeh range trading thi kyunke Jumme ke din price ne resistance ko test kiya, support ko test kiya, aur 147.431 aur 146.481 ke darmiyan close hui. Is surat mein, agle din meri tarjeeh range trading thi. Pair ne range ke andar close kiya, magar is se pehle usne 147.431 pe resistance ko test kiya, jo yeh dikhata hai ke main is range se downside breakout ka intezar kar raha hoon, aur meri aaj ki tarjeeh fitratan support 145.265 ki taraf decline ki taraf thi. Main range se breakout ki umeed kar raha tha, price ne dobara resistance ko test kiya, aur phir wapas ayi. Aisa lagta hai ke meri forecast durust sabit ho rahi hai. Abhi ka candle bearish hai, agar price 146.481 ke qareeb close hoti hai to mein decline ko tarjeeh doonga, aur agar yeh is level ke neeche close hoti hai to mazeed decline ki umeed hogi jo 145.265 tak ja sakti hai

Hum is waqt USD/JPY currency pair ki chalti hui price action ka mutalia kar rahe hain. Aaj, USD/JPY pair ne 147.76 ke resistance level ko chauthi dafa break karne ki koshish ki, lekin phir se ismein kamiab nahi ho saka. Bears ne jaldi se control apne haath mein le liya aur pair ko neeche ki taraf dhakel diya. Kul mila kar ye wazeh hai ke price ek tang side channel mein band ho rahi hai, jo is baat ki nishandahi kar raha hai ke ek breakout nazdeek hai kyunki pressure barh raha hai. Kuch analysts ka maanna hai ke kal ki aham khabrein is breakout ko trigger kar sakti hain. 147.76 ke resistance ko paar na kar paane ke bawajood, kuch asar hai ke bears yen ko aur neeche le ja sakte hain, jahan 145.95 ya us se bhi neeche ke support level tak pohonch sakta hai. Pair recent dino mein daily chart par sideways pattern mein tha, aur aaj ki harkat is range mein hi hai. Yeh kehna mushkil hai ke yeh sideways trend jari rahega ya phir kisi tabdeeli ki umeed ki jaye.
Behtareen insight ke liye, technical analysis par ghour karte hain. Moving averages sell signal dete hain, technical indicators strongly selling ka ishara karte hain, aur kul mila kar outlook bearish hai. Yeh sab kuch is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke bearish side ki taraf movement hone ka imkaan hai. Aaj United States se aham khabrein, khaaskar crude oil inventories ke hawale se, expected hain aur inka rujhan negative hai. Wahan Japan se koi khaas khabrein expected nahi hain. In factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue, pair ka rujhan shayad bearish hi rahega, jahan sales 145.59 ke support level tak pohonch sakti hain. Lekin, 147.99 resistance level tak buying ka bhi imkaan hai. Is liye, main bearish trend-based movement ki umeed karta hoon, lekin yeh abhi ke sideways range mein reh sakti hai

Humari discussion mein hum USD/JPY currency pair ke price changes ka analysis karenge. Ye pair Bank of Japan ke intervention ki wajah se 161.31 ke aage barh gaya, jo market mein dollars ke flood ke karan hua, bilkul 160 ki tarah. Market ne shayad isko anticipate kiya hoga, lekin 161 par growth abhi tak nahi hui thi, kyunki kisi ne bhi aise outcome ka pehle se andaza nahi lagaya tha. Baad mein, pair ne decline kiya jab yen ki appreciation hui, ek rate hike ke baad, aur carry trades unwind hone lagi. Lekin 148 se rise ka wazeha sabab abhi tak clear nahi hai—shayad Bank of Japan ke deputy chairman ke statements ki wajah se. Phir bhi, yeh saaf hai ke rate increase zaroori nahi tha, jab ke USD/JPY ne lagbhag 2000 points briefly surge kiya. Agar currency kuch hafton mein 10-15% gir jati hai to kisi ko bhi faida nahi hota. Lekin technically, agar hum 147.91 par sell karte hain, to falling channel ke upar growth 152-154 tak rise kar sakti hai, jo ke promising lagti hai pehle ek likely decline ke. Bank of Japan yen ko significant tor par drop karne nahi dega, kyunki yeh unke liye advantageous nahi hoga. Shayad wo zyada stable trading conditions ko prefer karte hain.
Pair ka technical outlook yeh suggest karta hai ke upward trend continue rahega, jaise ke TMA channel indicator se zahir hai. Zigzag aur auxiliary MACD aur RSI indicators bhi bullish movement ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, kyunki yeh oversold zone mein position mein hain, jo ke long buy trades ke potential ko signal karte hain. Bulls strength aur activity dikhate huye hain, aur mein plan kar raha hoon ke open position secure karoon jab Fib target 61.8%, price level 154.214 par ho. Lekin gains ko safeguard karne ke liye, mein order ko breakeven par shift kar dunga jaisi hi yeh positive hoti hai. Is waqt, 4-hour chart par, bulls apni position maintain kar rahe hain, halan ke unki activity thodi kam hui hai. Iska matlab yeh nahi ke bullish correction ki koshishain khatam ho gayi hain, kyunki abhi tak upward movement ya downside se attempts ka potential exhaust nahi hua. EMA(13/6) aur MACD indicators se nearly corrective signals mil rahe hain. Isliye, consolidation ke baad northern move ki umeed karta hoon

Good morning mere tamam colleagues! Aaj main USD/JPY ki price movement ko technical analysis aur fundamental factors ki base par assess karna chahta hoon. Jab ye likh raha hoon, us waqt USD/JPY takreeban 148.89 par trade ho raha hai. US dollar bhi 102.90 se upar mazboot hai, jo USD/JPY pair ke liye significant implications rakhta hai. Agar US dollar mazid mazboot hota hai, toh ho sakta hai ke USD/JPY mein girawat aaye, aur prices 147.95 ke level se neeche chali jayein. Technical Indicators aur Bearish Momentum

Technical indicators dekhte huye, market sentiment bears ko favor karta nazar aa raha hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is waqt 40.00 aur 45.00 ke bearish region mein fluctuate kar raha hai, jo ke girti hui momentum ka ishara de raha hai. Iske ilawa, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bhi apni red trigger line se neeche hai aur southern zone ki taraf point kar raha hai, jo ke bearish outlook ko mazid support karta hai. 20-day aur 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) bhi potential correction ki signs de rahe hain, jo suggest karta hai ke price ek period of consolidation ke baad southern direction mein jaari reh sakti hai.
Resistance aur Support Levels


Resistance ki baat karein toh, hum 149.37 level par minor resistance face kar sakte hain. Lekin agar bullish momentum mazid barhti hai, toh USD/JPY potentially 155.65 horizontal level test kar sakta hai, jo ke doosra resistance level hai. Agar price is resistance ko break karta hai, toh pair 161.76 ke teesre resistance level ko target kar sakta hai.

Downside ki taraf, minor support 147.95 level par hai. Agar price is support ke upar hold karne mein fail hota hai, toh ho sakta hai ke girawat mazid barh jaye, aur bears usse 147.07 aur 146.13 levels tak push kar dein. Technical analysis ke hisaab se, girti hui momentum ke saath, short-term mein ek bearish move ka imkaan hai.
Trading Strategy aur Risk Management


Maujooda market conditions ke madde nazar, USD/JPY trade karte waqt ehtiyaat zaroori hai. Yeh pair apni volatility ke liye mashhoor hai, aur upward aur downward movements dono ka imkaan significant hai. USD/JPY trade karte waqt large lot sizes ka istimaal karna mashwara nahi hoga, kyunki is pair ke saath risk bohot zyada hota hai.

Aakhir mein, technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke USD/JPY mazid bearish pressure ka shikar ho sakta hai, khas tor par agar US dollar mazid mazboot hota hai. Traders ko upar discuss kiye gaye key resistance aur support levels ko monitor karna chahiye aur price mein consolidation aur correction ka potential bhi madde nazar rakhna chahiye. Jaise hamesha, disciplined approach aur proper risk management strategies ka istimaal zaroori hai taake is pair ke trading risks ko navigate kiya ja sake

analysis aur fundamental factors ki base par assess karna chahta hoon. Jab ye likh raha hoon, us waqt USD/JPY takreeban 148.89 par trade ho raha hai. US dollar bhi 102.90 se upar mazboot hai, jo USD/JPY pair ke liye significant implications rakhta hai. Agar US dollar mazid mazboot hota hai, toh ho sakta hai ke USD/JPY mein girawat aaye, aur prices 147.95 ke level se neeche chali jayein. Technical Indicators aur Bearish Momentum

Technical indicators dekhte huye, market sentiment bears ko favor karta nazar aa raha hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is waqt 40.00 aur 45.00 ke bearish region mein fluctuate kar raha hai, jo ke girti hui momentum ka ishara de raha hai. Iske ilawa, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bhi apni red trigger line se neeche hai aur southern zone ki taraf point kar raha hai, jo ke bearish outlook ko mazid support karta hai. 20-day aur 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) bhi potential correction ki signs de rahe hain, jo suggest karta hai ke price ek period of consolidation ke baad southern direction mein jaari reh sakti hai.
Resistance aur Support Levels


Resistance ki baat karein toh, hum 149.37 level par minor resistance face kar sakte hain. Lekin agar bullish momentum mazid barhti hai, toh USD/JPY potentially 155.65 horizontal level test kar sakta hai, jo ke doosra resistance level hai. Agar price is resistance ko break karta hai, toh pair 161.76 ke teesre resistance level ko target kar sakta hai.

Downside ki taraf, minor support 147.95 level par hai. Agar price is support ke upar hold karne mein fail hota hai, toh ho sakta hai ke girawat mazid barh jaye, aur bears usse 147.07 aur 146.13 levels tak push kar dein. Technical analysis ke hisaab se, girti hui momentum ke saath, short-term mein ek bearish move ka imkaan hai

dekhna asaan hai ke pichlay kuch hafton mein price mein kitni zyada girawat hui hai. Is girawat ke sath technical indicators bhi apna kirdar ada kar rahe hain, jismein sabse aham bearish divergence hai jo MACD indicator par nazar aati hai. Dosra indicator jo humne use kiya, wo CCI hai, jo ke upper side par bearish divergence dikhata hai lekin choti shiddat ke sath. Is girawat ke peeche dono technical aur fundamental wajahain hain. Bank of Japan apni qoumi currency ke kamzoree se tang aa gaya tha, aur market mein billions inject karne ka bhi faida nahi hua, is liye unhon ne interest rate ko barhaya. Is se price mein ahem girawat hui. Girawat ke doran, 151.90 ka level toota, jiske baad ascending trendline bhi breach hui. Price lagbhag support level 140.25 tak pahunch gayi thi lekin kuch kam reh gayi. Uske baad price mein ek correction aayi aur broken ascending trendline ko neeche se touch kiya, jo ke ek naye leg down ka sabab ban sakti hai. Lekin CCI indicator jo ab oversold zone mein hai, wo thoda mutmaeen nahi karta. Ho sakta hai ke pullback aur gehra ho jaye jitna ke ab hai.

Ab humein H4 timeframe par dekhnay ki zaroorat hai ke price kis tarah se behave karti hai, taake ye dekh sakein ke koi indication hai ke price upar jana chah rahi hai ya neeche girne ka iraada hai. Halat thoda mubham hain, aur mujhe lagta hai ke buyers aur sellers dono ke liye barabar chances hain.

Is haftay ke aghaz mein corrective rally ke baad, price haftay ke darmiyan stuck ho gayi aur sideways movement karne lagi. Ek range aur accumulation zone ban chuki hai, jismein trade karna mohim na hoga agar aap bina sochay samjhay entries lena pasand na karte ho. Yahaan humein intizaar karna chahiye ke break out kis taraf hota hai, ya to neeche ya phir upar. Agar price resistance level 147.73 ke upar breakout karti hai, to ye buying ka entry point ban sakta hai jabke breakout ke baad price ko upar se test karne diya jaye. Is case mein target daily chart par indicate ki gayi level 151.90 ke neeche ho sakta hai. Selling ke liye, 145.60 ke support level ke neeche break down ka intezar zaroori hai, jo ke neeche se test karne ke baad selling ka entry point banega. Target pichlay haftay ke low ko dobara dekhna hoga. Aaj ke economic calendar mein koi aham news events

dollar Wednesday ki subah mein zabardast uchaal kay sath qareebi 149 yen tak pohonch gaya. Yeh bhi note kiya gaya ke dollar ne pehle ke aik ahem trend se recover kiya, jo upar ki taraf resistance create kar raha tha. Yeh izafa U.S. mein retail sales ke intehai behtreen numbers ki wajah se hua, jo expected levels se char guna ziada thay. Iske ilawa, unemployment data bhi expected se behtar raha aur doosray economic indicators ne bhi acha surprise diya. Yeh halat medium aur long-term market trends ke hawale se bulls aur bears ke darmiyan confusion peda kar sakti hain. In developments ki wajah se ab tawajjo Bank of Japan aur yen ke girawat par unki reaction par ho sakti hai. Agar Federal Reserve interest rates cut bhi kar le, toh bhi U.S. Treasury aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate ka gap 4.5% se 4.75% tak barqarar rahega. Yeh bara gap do funds ko attractive banata hai, kyun ke investors ko inhe hold karne par achi return milti hai — jo ke long term mein do ko aur upar le ja sakta hai.
Agar dollar 150 yen ka level break kar leta hai, toh yeh mazeed buyers ko attract kar sakta hai, jo ke global "carry trade" ko barhawa de sakta hai. Markets har session ke end mein profit-producing trajectories par wapas aane ke liye baychain hain, hum in trades mein naye interes



Summary mein, U.S. dollar ka yen ke against barhna behtar ho raha hai, U.S. ki strong economic conditions aur interest rate ke differences mein kami ki wajah se. 150 yen se upar ka market significant gains ka signal de sakta hai aur global automotive market ko dobara se revive kar sakta hai, kyun ke investors in favorable conditions ka faida uthane ki koshish kar rahay hain