USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

**USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis**
U.S. employment data aur bade technology companies ke disappointing earnings reports ki wajah se pichle hafte global stocks, oil, aur high-yield currencies mein sell-off dekha gaya, jahan investors ne safety ke liye cash out kiya. Saath hi, U.S. Treasury yields mein sharp girawat aayi jab Chairman Powell ne September mein rate cut ke mumkin hone ki taraf ishara kiya. Aakhri Friday tak, rate cut ki umeed mein tezi se izafa hua jab data ne unemployment rate ke jump ko dikhaya. Bank of Japan ki strong aur continuous rate hikes ne yen ke carry trade pattern ko ulta kar diya, jahan traders actively carry trades ko close kar rahe hain. Pehle ke tajurbaat ke mutabiq, jab bhi carry trades mein koi masla hota hai, investors jaldi se nikal jate hain, jo market mein shocking waves paida karta hai aur related markets tak phail jata hai. Carry trades mein kitna paisa ikattha hua hai aur usko clear karna hai, iska andaza lagana mushkil hai.

Daily chart se yeh nazar aata hai ke lagbhag ek mahine ke sharp rebound ke baad, USD/JPY ab ek extremely oversold state mein hai. Current exchange rate importers ko low price par USD kharidne ke liye attract karega, jo sharply falling USD ko kuch support provide karega. Iske ilawa, short-covering ki power ko underestimate nahi kiya ja sakta. Short term mein, USD/JPY ka short-covering adjustment mein enter karna expected hai, jo temporarily USD ke sharp decline ke momentum ko dheela kar sakta hai. cut ke mumkin hone ki taraf ishara kiya. Aakhri Friday tak, rate cut ki umeed mein tezi se izafa hua jab data ne unemployment rate ke jump ko dikhaya. Bank of Japan ki strong aur continuous rate hikes ne yen ke carry trade pattern ko ulta kar diya, jahan traders actively carry trades ko

**Aaj ke USD ke news ke mutabiq, ho sakta hai ke American currency ko khareeda jaana shuru ho jaye, shayad American session ke dauran. Hal hi mein sab log USD bech rahe hain aur yen khareed rahe hain. Aaj ke news mein yeh hai: 16:45 par - "Business Activity Index (PMI) in the service sector (July)", aur 17:00 par - "ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the US (July)".** karna shuru kar diya hai. Price puri tarah se green zone ko kaam kar sakti hai, upar ki taraf correction karke support levels ko test kar sakti hai - MA, red line 146.70 par, aur mid-trend level, black line 149 par. Price mid-TF level, black line ko upar ki taraf tod sakti hai aur maximum ko test karne ke liye ja sakti hai.

Oscillator indicate kar raha hai ke price oversold hai. Yeh negative oversold zone mein kaam karna band kar dega aur upar ki taraf move karega.

**5-minute chart par pair ka technical analysis: Short-term. Price 142 ke level par TF minimum ko test karke upar ki taraf correction shuru ho gayi hai. Price ke raaste par ek bada green zone ban gaya hai, jise price ne kaam karna shuru kar diya hai. Price puri tarah se green zone ko kaam kar sakti hai, upar ki taraf correction karke support levels ko test kar sakti hai - MA, red line 146.70 par, aur mid-trend level, black line 149 par. Price mid-TF level, black line ko upar ki taraf tod sakti hai aur maximum ko test karne ke liye ja sakti hai.**

**Oscillator indicate kar raha hai ke price oversold hai. Yeh negative oversold zone mein kaam karna band kar dega aur upar ki taraf move karega.**

Technical analysis of the USDJPY pair

1-hour chart par pair ke liye ab price ke rise hone ka accha mauqa hai, kyun ke price ko price channels se aur weekly level 143.56 se support mil raha hai. Aaj price ne descending price channels ke andar trading shuru ki jo pichle do dinon ke dauran price movement ka direction represent karte hain, magar aaj humne direction ko rise karne ki koshish dekhi, jo ab tak kamiyab rahi hai.

Price channels ke darmiyan aur kal ke sabse zyada trading prices ke darmiyan utar-chadhav ke bawajood, current support level price ko dobara upar le aata hai taake sabse zyada trading price ko todne aur rise continue karne ki koshish ki ja sake.

Is waqt trading advice yeh hai ke current level se weekly pivot level tak buy karein aur stop-loss level 143.56 ke neeche set karein.

Economic side par, Japanese yen mein tezi se gains dekhe gaye jo 141.70 level tak jump kiya, jo ke January 2024 ke shuru se apna sabse zyada level hai. Yeh bets ki wajah se hai ke Bank of Japan agle kuch mahinon mein interest rates ko aur zyada raise karega, jabke US Federal Reserve ko zyada aggressively interest rates cut karne padenge. Forecasts ke mutabiq, ek weak jobs report ne recession ke khauf ko janam diya United States mein, jiski wajah se markets ne September mein Federal Reserve se 50 basis point interest rate cut ko zyada price in kar liya.

Isi dauran, Bank of Japan ne apna benchmark interest rate 0.25% tak raise kiya pichle hafte aur ishara diya ke agar economy strong rahi toh woh rates ko aur raise karne ke liye tayar hain. Financial markets do aur rate hikes ke liye bet kar rahe hain is fiscal year ke andar jo March 2025 mein khatam hoga, agla increase December mein expected hai. Central bank ne ye bhi announce kiya ke woh agle do saalon mein apni monthly bond purchases ko aadha karne ka plan bana rahe hain.

Agar doosri taraf dekha jaye toh, data se yeh pata chala ke Japanese authorities ne July mein currency ko support karne ke liye 5.53 trillion yen spend kiye.

Japanese yen ne US dollar ke muqablay mein taqat hasil ki hai kyunki Bank of Japan (BoJ) ab ek zyada hawkish monetary policy stance ki taraf ja raha hai. Central bank ke short-term interest rate target ko barhane aur government bond purchases ko kam karne ke faisle ne aage ke policy tightening ke expectations ko tez kar diya hai. Ye shift, carry trade unwindings ke dheema hone ke sath, yen ko upar ki taraf le gaya hai. Is ke muqablay, US dollar ko Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke badhte huye expectations ki wajah se mushkilat ka samna karna pad raha hai. CME FedWatch tool ab September mein rate cut ki high probability indicate kar raha hai, jo dollar ki appeal ko kam kar raha hai.

USD/JPY pair filhal 145.20 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, aur apni recent losing streak ko break kiya hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, potential support 140.25 par hai aur resistance nine-day EMA ke paas 149.22 par hai. Pair ek critical juncture par hai kyunki wo 200-day simple moving average ko test kar raha hai. Agar is level ke neeche break hota hai, to ye sustained downtrend ki shuruaat ka signal de sakta hai, jahan potential support levels 151.90-151.54 aur 151.09 par hain.

Agar pair nine-day EMA ke upar break karne mein kamyab hota hai, to ise declining support jo ab resistance ban chuki hai, level 154.50 par resistance ka saamna karna pad sakta hai, aur uske baad 50-day EMA par 155.58 par. Agar further upside momentum dekhne ko milti hai, to Fibonacci retracement levels ko test karne ka mauka mil sakta hai aur aakhir mein 38-year high 161.94 ko challenge kiya ja sakta hai. USD/JPY pair ka aage ka direction BoJ ke monetary policy trajectory, US interest rate cuts ki speed, aur overall market sentiment ke interplay par largely depend karega.

Summary mein, BoJ ke Wednesday ko kiye gaye raise ne USD/JPY ko zyada support diya, jo ab bhi short term mein selling pressure ke neeche hai. Phir bhi, agar 200-day SMA ka downward breakdown hota hai, to ye trend reversal ki shuruaat ka indication de sakta hai.

USDJPY ka Forecast

H4 Time Frame Chart Outlook:

USDJPY ke H4 time frame chart ko dekhte hue, main dekh raha hoon ke price pichle kuch trading din se downward trend mein hai, kyunki price moving average lines ke neeche chal rahi hai. Price ne descending channel ke bottom aur top levels ko follow kiya hai, kyunki price descending channel ke andar bhi thi. August 2 ko, jab price tezi se gir gayi aur 141.65 mark ko hit kiya, USDJPY ne is declining channel ke lower end ko break kiya. Aakhri kuch ghanton mein price adjustment ke liye price barh rahi hai, kyunki jab USDJPY is price level ko hit kiya, tab saare technical indicators oversold level par the, khaaskar RSI indicator.

Daily Time Frame Chart Outlook:

RSI indicator ki value 14 thi aur USDJPY price daily time frame chart par 141.59 tak gir gayi thi, is waqt currency ka aur girna technically mushkil lag raha hai. Price is point se steadily barhne lagi, jis wajah se USDJPY ne kal pin bar candle banayi. Yeh indicate karta hai ke buyers ne is trading asset par akhir kar influence rakha. Aaj price barh rahi hai aur resistance level 146.69 tak pahunch gayi hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke yeh jaldi break kar degi aur agle resistance levels, jo ke 151.92 aur 158.61 hain, ko test karegi. Price adjustment ko thoda waqt lagega kyunki pichle kuch trading dinon mein price kaafi gir gayi thi. Short term ke liye, aap ise kharid sakte hain kyunki is waqt bechna risky hai.

USDJPY pair ka 1-hour chart dekhein, to price ko abhi upar janay ka acha mauqa mil raha hai, kyunke price ko price channels aur weekly level 143.56 ka support mil raha hai.
Aaj price ne trading shuru ki hai un descending price channels mein jo pichle do dinon ke dauran price movement ka direction represent kar rahe thay, magar aaj humare paas direction ko upar badalne ki koshish hai, aur yeh abhi tak kamiyab hai.
Price ne kal ke highest trading prices aur channels ke beech upar neeche hone ke bawajood, current support level phir se price ko upar le aaya hai taake highest trading price ko todne aur rise ko continue karne ki koshish kar sake.
Is waqt trading advice yeh hai ke current level se weekly pivot level tak buy kiya jaye aur stop-loss level 143.56 ke neeche set kiya jaye.
Economic side pe dekha jaye to, Japanese yen ke sharp gains ka silsila jaari hai, jo level 141.70 tak pohanch gaya, jo ke January 2024 se apna highest level hai. Yeh is liye hai kyunke bets lag rahi hain ke Bank of Japan ane wale mahino mein interest rates mazeed barhaye ga, jab ke US Federal Reserve ziada aggressively interest rates cut karne wala hai. Yeh predictions weak jobs report ke baad aaye hain jo ke US mein recession ka dar paida kar rahi hain, jis se markets Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein 50 basis point ka interest rate cut price in kar rahi hain.

Wahin dusri taraf, Bank of Japan ne pichle hafta apna benchmark interest rate 0.25% tak barhaya aur signal diya ke agar economy strong rahi to mazeed rate hikes ke liye tayar hain. Financial markets is fiscal year ke March 2025 tak do aur rate hikes ki umeed laga rahe hain, jisme agla increase December mein expected hai. Central bank ne yeh bhi announce kiya ke apni monthly bond purchases ko agle do saalon mein aadha karne ka plan hai.
Iske ilawa, data ne dikhaya ke Japanese authorities ne July mein currency ko support karne ke liye 5.53 trillion yen kharch kiye.

Yen apni volatility se har waqt naya surprise de raha hai. Jab price 145.64 par test hui, toh MACD indicator zero mark se neeche move kar raha tha, jo sell karne ka sahi entry point tha aur isse dollar mein 100 points se zyada ki kami dekhi gayi. Jab maine 144.50 se rebound par buy kiya, toh 30 points ka profit mila. Aaj ke doosre half mein dollar sellers dominate kar sakte hain, khaaskar agar US trade balance aur TIPP/RCM Economic Optimism Index kamzor data dikhate hain, jo US economy ke decline ki concerns ko aur barha sakta hai. Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenarios 1 aur 2 par amal karunga, jismein dollar bechne par focus hoga.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1:
Aaj main USD/JPY ko 145.30 par buy karne ki soch raha hoon (chart par green line), jiska target 146.54 (chart par thicker green line) hai. 146.54 par main purchases exit karunga aur opposite direction mein sales open karunga, jahan 30-35 points ki movement ki ummeed hai. Strong rise tabhi expect kiya ja sakta hai jab data bohot strong ho aur 145.30 ke upar break ho. Important! Buy karne se pehle ensure kar lein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur wahan se rise start kar raha ho.

Scenario 2:
Main aaj USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan bhi kar raha hoon agar price 144.37 ko do consecutive tests kare, jab MACD indicator oversold zone mein ho. Isse pair ke downward potential ko limit kiya ja sakta hai aur market reversal upar ki taraf ho sakta hai. 145.30 aur 146.54 tak rise ki ummeed hai.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1:Aaj main USD/JPY ko 144.37 (chart par red line) ke break hone ke baad sell karunga, jisse pair mein tezi se kami aayegi. Sellers ka key target 143.19 hoga, jahan main sales exit karunga aur turant opposite direction mein purchases open karunga, jahan 20-25 points ki movement ki ummeed hai. Pressure pair par tab wapas aayega jab 145.40 ke upar break attempt fail hoti hai aur US statistics kamzor hote hain. Important! Sell karne se pehle ensure kar lein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche ho aur decline start kar raha ho.

Yen apni volatility se har waqt naya surprise de raha hai. Jab price 145.64 par test hui, toh MACD indicator zero mark se neeche move kar raha tha, jo sell karne ka sahi entry point tha aur isse dollar mein 100 points se zyada ki kami dekhi gayi. Jab maine 144.50 se rebound par buy kiya, toh 30 points ka profit mila. Aaj ke doosre half mein dollar sellers dominate kar sakte hain, khaaskar agar US trade balance aur TIPP/RCM Economic Optimism Index kamzor data dikhate hain, jo US economy ke decline ki concerns ko aur barha sakta hai. Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenarios 1 aur 2 par amal karunga, jismein dollar bechne par focus hoga.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1:
Aaj main USD/JPY ko 145.30 par buy karne ki soch raha hoon (chart par green line), jiska target 146.54 (chart par thicker green line) hai. 146.54 par main purchases exit karunga aur opposite direction mein sales open karunga, jahan 30-35 points ki movement ki ummeed hai. Strong rise tabhi expect kiya ja sakta hai jab data bohot strong ho aur 145.30 ke upar break ho. Important! Buy karne se pehle ensure kar lein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur wahan se rise start kar raha ho.

Scenario 2:
Main aaj USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan bhi kar raha hoon agar price 144.37 ko do consecutive tests kare, jab MACD indicator oversold zone mein ho. Isse pair ke downward potential ko limit kiya ja sakta hai aur market reversal upar ki taraf ho sakta hai. 145.30 aur 146.54 tak rise ki ummeed hai.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1:Aaj main USD/JPY ko 144.37 (chart par red line) ke break hone ke baad sell karunga, jisse pair mein tezi se kami aayegi. Sellers ka key target 143.19 hoga, jahan main sales exit karunga aur turant opposite direction mein purchases open karunga, jahan 20-25 points ki movement ki ummeed hai. Pressure pair par tab wapas aayega jab 145.40 ke upar break attempt fail hoti hai aur US statistics kamzor hote hain. Important! Sell karne se pehle ensure kar lein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche ho aur decline start kar raha ho.

Thursday ko, USD/JPY ne record high touch kiya, jo rapid increase ko indicate karta hai, aur yeh profit-taking ka potential opportunity suggest karta hai. US session se pehle decline ka chance bhi ho sakta hai. Furthermore, moving averages aur bullish channel ke upar breakout bearish pressure ko indicate karta hai. Hourly chart analysis ke mutabiq, aur 15-minute chart pe, decline ka possibility bhi hai kyunki moving average current price ke upar hai, jo bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai for USD/JPY pair, potentially higher zone mein move karne ka. Iss week ka trend pattern uptrend aur narrow range ko indicate karta hai. Relatively modest upward rally ke madde nazar, yeh increase agle hafte tak continue ho sakti hai, aur prices expected hain ke uptrend maintain karenge. Morning candlestick 100-period simple moving average ke upar close hui, jo market trend ke rise ko suggest karti hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone surpass kar sakein... Is waqt, USD/JPY trend line ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko show karta hai, aur yeh trend line support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Bullish rally ke continue hone ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko 162.15 resistance break karna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega continuation ka potential dega. Pehla target supply zone hoga 160.47 pe, jahan historically sellers ne price down push kiya tha. Reverse movement towards short side bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle 160.24 support break karna hoga, jahan se price aksar bounce back hoti hai. Bears ki strength tab confirm hogi jab price 160.31 ke broken level ke neeche consolidate ho jaye, jo price weakness ko indicate karega. USD/JPY market mein. Yeh khas tor pe pichlay Wednesday ko evident tha, jab price significant downward movement experience hui thi us trading session ke doran. Chhoti timeframe mein, price position monitor hui hai aur abhi Simple Moving Average line ke upar hai 50 period ke liye aur slight correction upward hui hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke aaj ke price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area ke around consolidate kare gi, kyun ke aise conditions aksar Tuesday ko hoti hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai. Market trend conditions H1 timeframe mein dekh kar yeh kaafi clear hai ke

karte hain. Thursday ko, USD/JPY ne record high touch kiya, jo rapid increase ko indicate karta hai, aur yeh profit-taking ka potential opportunity suggest karta hai. US session se pehle decline ka chance bhi ho sakta hai. Furthermore, moving averages aur bullish channel ke upar breakout bearish pressure ko indicate karta hai. Hourly chart analysis ke mutabiq, aur 15-minute chart pe, decline ka possibility bhi hai kyunki moving average current price ke upar hai, jo bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai for USD/JPY pair, potentially higher zone mein move karne ka. Iss week ka trend pattern uptrend aur narrow range ko indicate karta hai. Relatively modest upward rally ke madde nazar, yeh increase agle hafte tak continue ho sakti hai, aur prices expected hain ke uptrend maintain karenge. Morning candlestick 100-period simple moving average ke upar close hui, jo market trend ke rise ko suggest karti hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone surpass kar sakein... Is waqt, USD/JPY trend line ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko show karta hai, aur yeh trend line support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Bullish rally ke continue hone ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko 162.15 resistance break karna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega continuation ka potential dega. Pehla target supply zone hoga 160.47 pe, jahan historically sellers ne price down push kiya tha. Reverse movement towards short side bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle 160.24 support break karna hoga, jahan se price aksar bounce back hoti hai. Bears ki strength tab confirm hogi jab price 160.31 ke broken level ke neeche consolidate ho jaye, jo price weakness ko indicate karega. USD/JPY market mein. Yeh khas tor pe pichlay Wednesday ko evident tha, jab price significant downward movement experience hui thi us trading session ke doran. Chhoti timeframe mein, price position monitor hui hai aur abhi Simple Moving Average line ke upar hai 50 period ke liye aur slight correction upward hui hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke aaj ke price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area ke around consolidate kare gi, kyun ke aise conditions aksar Tuesday ko hoti hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai. Market trend conditions H1 timeframe mein dekh kar yeh kaafi clear hai ke yeh abhi downward phase mein hai, halan ke range zyada

. Ek indication is bullish trend ka yeh hai ke price resistance level 159.901 par stuck hai. Pehle, price ne support level 159.296 tak correct kiya tha, jo EMA 50 ke qareeb hai. Yeh correction temporary selling pressure indicate karti hai jo price ko support area tak le gayi. Support level 159.296 ko touch karne ke baad, price ne bullish strength dikhayi aur continued increases hui. Yeh indicate karta hai ke support 159.296 successfully price decline ko roknay mein kamiyab raha, aur yeh turning point bana buyers ke liye market mein dubara enter karne ka. Support touch karne ke baad price ka increase market sentiment ko buying power se dominated dikhata hai. Abhi, price dubara resistance level 159.901 ke qareeb pohanch rahi hai. Yeh level bullish trend ke continuation ko determine karne mein crucial hai. Agar price 159.901 ke resistance ko break kar leti hai, to yeh signal hoga ke buying power strong enough hai price ko aur upar push karne ke liye. Yeh resistance breakout opportunities khol sakti hai price ke further rise hone ki aur possibly next resistance levels ko reach karne ki. USD/JPY currency pair narrow trading range mein stuck hai Asian trading hours ke doran is Wednesday ko, jabke briefly 34-year high ko touch kiya tha is hafte ke shuru mein. But, USD/JPY has limited upside potential due to potential intervention by Japanese authorities, specifically the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Japan ne excessive currency fluctuations ke bare mein concerns express kiye hain aur measures hint kiye hain Yen ko support karne ke liye. Yeh stance sharply contrast karta hai hawkish Federal Reserve ke sath US mein, jo dollar ko higher drive kar raha hai. USD/JPY ne recently ek key resistance level 158.34 ko break kiya aur abhi 160.20 ke thoda neeche hover kar raha hai. Jabke pair ne recent days mein resistance around 159.80 face kiya hai, agar crucial 159.00 level ke neeche break hota hai to yeh potential downside correction signal kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar USD/JPY 159.00 ke upar hold karta hai, to further rise ka chance abhi bhi hai. USD/JPY currency pair par paisa kamane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Aaj mein is instrument ki volatility ko dekh raha hoon aur yeh andaza hai ke yeh 157.164 ke support level tak decline karega, jahan se khareedna bohot munasib hoga. Baaki sab kuch instrument ki aaj ki volatility par mabni hoga. Kyunki mujhe 159.023 level tak growth ki umeed hai, main stop loss ko zyada door nahi rakhunga, lagbhag 157.139 ke level par. Expected profit aur limiting losses ka behtareen ratio hasil ho jayega. Agar stop loss level hit hota hai, to growth ke saath saare plans cancel kar dunga aur aaj ke liye bina profit ke reh jaunga. Main yeh bhi dekhna chahta hoon ke price 158.076 level par kaise react karega. Yeh bhi ek ahem role ada kar sakta hai. Agar aaj humein ek upward impulse milta hai, 158.00 range tak, to uske baad bhi fall continue hoga. Choti upward impulse 159.70 range tak ho sakti hai, phir wahan se fall continue hoga. Current level se corrective growth abhi bhi mumkin hai, lekin uske baad bhi fall continue hoga. 156.06 se choti impulse pehle hi ho chuki hai aur uske baad fall continue hoga. Current range se fall abhi bhi mumkin hai. Buyers price tag ko upar 158.80 se upar le ja sakte hain, lekin fall abhi bhi priority hai aur behtareen yeh hai

Stochastic curve bhi bearish direction mein move kar raha hai, jo ye signal de raha hai ke trend bearish hai. Open price aur SMA5 ke resistance level ke darmiyan gap dekhte hue, ho sakta hai ke price pehle is dynamic resistance level tak correct kare, phir apni decline ko jari rakhe. Ye scenario sell positions ke liye potential entry points paish karta hai, jo ke demand ke likely decline par focus karke capitalize kiye ja sakte hain.

Ek evening analysis H4 chart par ek triangle pattern ko reveal karta hai. Is pattern mein break aaya, jo ke temporary price increase ka sabab bana, is ne thodi ummed aur direction ka ishara diya. Northern path ko confirm karne ke liye, price ko H4 ke upward reversal levels, khaaskar 161.55 level ko paar karna hoga. Ye level H4 zigzag ke low se ek trend line aur baqi triangle support se supported hai.

Akhir mein, D1 price zone ke south mein break mera faisla sell karne ke liye pakka kar dega. Mein agle hafte zyada tafseelat faraham karunga. Apne analysis aur morning horoscope ke mutabiq, mujhe ye pata hai ke mujhe 160.75 par deal ko rokna hoga, kyun ke potential win meri position se paanch martaba zyada ho sakta hai. Agar market mere desired goals ki taraf move nahi karti, to mein exit karunga aur kal dobara evaluate karunga. Har aane wala din gair yaqeeni hota hai, aur news events is uncertainty mein aham kirdar ada karte hain. Nuksan ke khatre se bacha rahe, ye behtar hai. Fed ke Williams ke dovish comments aur Japan se weak current account data ke baad USD mazboot hua, jo ke USD/JPY ke 36 pips tak barhne ka sabab bana aur ye 161.30 par close hua.

USD/JPY currency pair H1 timeframe par abhi strong bullish signs show kar raha hai. Ek indication is bullish trend ka yeh hai ke price resistance level 159.901 par stuck hai. Pehle, price ne support level 159.296 tak correct kiya tha, jo EMA 50 ke qareeb hai. Yeh correction temporary selling pressure indicate karti hai jo price ko support area tak le gayi. Support level 159.296 ko touch karne ke baad, price ne bullish strength dikhayi aur continued increases hui. Yeh indicate karta hai ke support 159.296 successfully price decline ko roknay mein kamiyab raha, aur yeh turning point bana buyers ke liye market mein dubara enter karne ka. Support touch karne ke baad price ka increase market sentiment ko buying power se dominated dikhata hai. Abhi, price dubara resistance level 159.901 ke qareeb pohanch rahi hai. Yeh level bullish trend ke continuation ko determine karne mein crucial hai. Agar price 159.901 ke resistance ko break kar leti hai, to yeh signal hoga ke buying power strong enough hai price ko aur upar push karne ke liye. Yeh resistance breakout opportunities khol sakti hai price ke further rise hone ki aur possibly next resistance levels ko reach karne ki. USD/JPY currency pair narrow trading range mein stuck hai Asian trading hours ke doran is Wednesday ko, jabke briefly 34-year high ko touch kiya tha is hafte ke shuru mein. But, USD/JPY has limited upside potential due to potential intervention by Japanese authorities, specifically the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Japan ne excessive currency fluctuations ke bare mein concerns express kiye hain aur measures hint kiye hain Yen ko support karne ke liye. Yeh stance sharply contrast karta hai hawkish Federal Reserve ke sath US mein, jo dollar ko higher drive kar raha hai. USD/JPY ne recently ek key resistance level 158.34 ko break kiya aur abhi 160.20 ke thoda neeche hover kar raha hai.




Jabke pair ne recent days mein resistance around 159.80 face kiya hai, agar crucial 159.00 level ke neeche break hota hai to yeh potential downside correction signal kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar USD/JPY 159.00 ke upar hold karta hai, to further rise ka chance abhi bhi hai. USD/JPY currency pair par paisa kamane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Aaj mein is instrument ki volatility ko dekh raha hoon aur yeh andaza hai ke yeh 157.164 ke support level tak decline karega, jahan se khareedna bohot munasib hoga. Baaki sab kuch instrument ki aaj ki volatility par mabni hoga. Kyunki mujhe 159.023 level tak growth ki umeed hai, main stop loss ko zyada door nahi rakhunga, lagbhag 157.139 ke level par. Expected profit aur limiting losses ka behtareen ratio hasil ho jayega. Agar stop loss level hit hota hai, to growth ke saath saare plans cancel kar dunga aur aaj ke liye bina profit ke reh jaunga. Main yeh bhi dekhna chahta hoon ke price 158.076 level par kaise react karega. Yeh bhi ek ahem role ada kar sakta hai. Agar aaj humein ek upward impulse milta hai, 158.00 range tak, to uske baad bhi fall continue hoga. Choti upward impulse 159.70 range tak ho sakti hai, phir wahan se fall continue hoga. Current level se corrective growth abhi bhi mumkin hai, lekin uske baad bhi fall continue hoga. 156.06 se choti impulse pehle hi ho chuki hai aur uske baad fall continue hoga. Current range se fall abhi bhi mumkin hai. Buyers price tag ko upar 158.80 se upar le ja sakte hain, lekin fall abhi bhi priority hai aur behtareen yeh hai ke sell kiya jaye. Zigzag indicato

Yen apni volatility ke saath hairan karta rehta hai. Jab price 145.64 par test hua, tab MACD indicator bas zero mark se niche move kar raha tha, jo dollar ko bechne ka sahi entry point confirm kar raha tha aur 100 se zyada points ki decline hui. 144.50 se rebound par buying bhi kareeb 30 points ka profit diya. Din ke doosre hisse mein dollar sellers ka bol-bala ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar US trade balance aur TIPP/RCM Economic Optimism Index ke data kamzor aaye, jo investors ke U.S. economy ke girte halat ke concerns ko mazid barhawa dega. Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenario 1 aur 2 ke implementations par focus karunga, aur dollar ko bechne par zor doonga.
**Buy Signal**

**Scenario 1:** Aaj, main USD/JPY kharidne ka plan kar raha hoon jab yeh entry point 145.30 (chart par green line) par pohnchega aur target hoga 146.54 (chart par mota green line). 146.54 par main kharidari se bahar nikal jaunga aur ulte direction mein bechna shuru karunga, is level se 30-35 points ke opposite movement ki ummed hai. Pair mein aaj mazid rise tabhi expected hai jab data bohot strong ho aur 145.30 se upar break ho. Important! Kharidne se pehle, ye confirm kar lo ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar hai aur rise start ho raha hai.

Main aaj USD/JPY kharidne ka plan kar raha hoon agar price 144.37 par do martaba test ho aur MACD indicator oversold zone mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market mein upward reversal le aayega. 145.30 aur 146.54 ke opposite levels tak rise expect ki ja sakti hai

Aaj, main USD/JPY bechne ka plan kar raha hoon jab level 144.37 (chart par red line) tootega, jo pair mein tezi se decline le aayega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga level 143.19, jahan main sales se bahar nikal jaunga aur turant ulte direction mein purchases kholunga, is level se 20-25 points ke opposite movement ki ummed hai. Pair par pressure tab wapas aayega jab 145.40 se upar break attempt fail ho aur U.S. statistics kamzor ho. Important! Bechne se pehle, ye confirm kar lo ke MACD indicator zero mark se niche hai aur decline start ho raha hai.

**Main aaj USD/JPY bechne ka plan kar raha hoon agar price 145.30 par do martaba test ho aur MACD indicator overbought zone mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market mein downward reversal le aayega. 144.37 aur 143.19 ke opposite levels tak decline expect ki ja sakti hai.

Hum real-time USD/JPY currency pair ki pricing analysis kar rahe hain. Recent trading mein USD/JPY kaafi gir gaya hai, aur price 1700 points gir ke 142.63 ke support level pe aa gaya hai. Yeh tez girawat H4 chart par bearish sentiment ko highlight karti hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke aage aur girawat ho sakti hai. Bears ne price ko Bollinger Bands ki taraf push karne ki koshish ki hai. Bears 2021-2022 se lost ground recover karne ki koshish kar rahe hain, lekin complete reversal ki koi guarantee nahi hai. Agar yeh downtrend barqarar rehta hai, toh yeh pehle ke losses ka kam az kam aadha recover kar sakta hai. Kaafi "black Mondays" yeh ho sakte hain ke yen ko 130 ya shayad 115 levels tak push kar dein, lekin yeh speculative hai. Aaj pair ne 146.35 pe resistance test kiya lekin aage nahi badh saka, jis se bears ne control le liya aur price ko 144.04 tak le aaye. Price 144.04 ke upar hai, aur agar buying opportunity milti hai, toh bulls jaldi se momentum regain kar sakte hain.
USD/JPY pair aaj ke opening level 145.81 ke neeche aur daily Pivot level 144.14 ke upar trade kar raha hai. Current indicators downward trend suggest karte hain, price MA72 trend line ke neeche hai jahan volume reductions aam tor pe hoti hain. Agar cost 144.61 se upar chali jaati hai, toh resistance levels 145.03 aur shayad 146.37 tak move hone ka chance hai. Agar price 144.14 se neeche girti hai, toh yeh 143.76 aur shayad 143.41 tak gir sakti hai. USD/JPY pair monthly Pivot level 153.86 (pehle 158.90), weekly Pivot level 149.40 (pehle 154.43) ke neeche aur daily Pivot level 144.14 ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo pair ke liye ek corrective phase ko reflect karta hai