جی بی پی/یو ایس ڈی: کرنسی کے تبادلے کی تازہ ترین معلومات

Gbp/usd pair ne wednesday ko US dollar ke muqablay mein kamzor hua jab US inflation data release hui, jis ne yeh suggest kiya ke Federal Reserve ab sooch samajh kar interest rate cuts karegi. CPI overall expectation ke mutabiq barhi, lekin core CPI, jo ke food aur energy ke ilawa hoti hai, thodi ziada barhi jo anticipate ki gayi thi. Yeh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke mehngai ke pressure abhi bhi zyada hai, jo ke Fed ki ability ko aggressively rates cut karne se rok sakti hai. Iss data ke nateeje mein, Fed ki aane wali meeting mein 50 basis point rate cut ki probability kam ho gayi hai, jab ke 25 basis point cut puri tarah se priced in hai. Iss shift ne US dollar ko support diya, jis ne strength hasil ki jab investors ne kam dovish Fed ke umeed rakhi. GBP/USD ne apna downward trend resume kar liya early European trade mein, aur ek key support level ko tod diya. Ager girawat jaari rahi, toh selling pressure April-July ke uptrend ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement aur 20-day simple moving average ki taraf barh sakta hai. Agar downside momentum jaari raha, toh bearish cycle lower support levels tak barh sakti hai, jin mein 38.2% Fibonacci level aur 50-day moving average bhi shamil hai. Technically, GBP/USD ka short-term outlook bearish hai. RSI aur Stochastic indicators neeche ki taraf muft rahe hain, jab ke MACD red signal line ke neeche break kar chuki hai. Lekin moving averages ki upward slope yeh suggest karti hai ke current bearish wave larger uptrend ka hissa ho sakti hai. Yeh factors ke ilawa bhi kai aur factors hain jo GBP/USD ko near term mein influence kar sakte hain. In sab complex factors ki waja se, short-term mein GBP/USD ka move predict karna mushkil hai. Lekin current bearish trend se yeh risk pata chalta hai ke near future mein aur girawat ho sakti hai. Lekin doosre events aur factors bhi bulls ko dubara support kar sakte hain. Market behavior ya sentiment ko analyze karte rehna chahiye taake galtiyon se bacha ja sake aur usko puri tarah samjha ja sake. Market sentiment aksar price movements ko drive karta hai, aur usko samajhne se participants ko edge mil sakti hai. Sentiment analysis ka ek important hissa yeh hai ke samjha jaye ke doosre participants kis tarah position liye hue hain aur woh mukhtalif price levels par kis tarah react kar sakte hain. Jab bulls resistance ko test karne ki koshish karenge, toh yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke market mein strong consensus hai ya phir indecision ke signs hain

Bollinger Bands indicator ko agar daily timeframe par dekha jaye, to ye dikhata hai ke buyer abhi bhi price ko control kar raha hai. Iska saboot ye hai ke bullish candle dominance ke zariye buyer ne price ko Upper Bollinger Bands area ke upar 1.3295 par qaim rakha hai. Is se yeh pata chalta hai ke buyer aaj ke trading mein buying pressure dalta rahega aur price ko ek mazboot seller supply resistance area tak le jane ki koshish karega, jo ke 1.3335 aur 1.3337 ke darmiyan waqay hai. GBP/USD pair is waqt upward rally ke natijay mein higher high pattern bana raha hai. Price ne pehle lower low pattern establish kiya tha, jab price correct ho kar 1.3001 ke low levels tak chali gayi thi. Ab tak, na to higher high - higher low ka significant structure badla hai, aur na hi bullish trend ki direction mein koi tabdeeli aayi hai. Yeh sab is baat ka ishara karte hain ke price ke badalne ka rujhan zyada hai. Agar downward correction phase aaye, to price sab se qareebi RBS area, jo ke 1.3254 ke aas paas hai, tak pahunch sakti hai, uske baad phir se upar ka safar jari rahega. GBP/USD pair ke price mein izafa hone ki ek badi wajah US dollar ka kamzor hota hua outlook hai. Doosri side par, upward price surge ke baad ek downward corrective phase bhi aa sakta hai. Momentum ke parameters bhi upward dikhate hain kyun ke yeh level 50 ke upar hai. Trading strategy mein behtari isi mein hai ke price ke movement ke saath chala jaye, jo ke abhi bhi favorable conditions mein upward hai. Is liye, BUY position lena zyada safe rahega, bajaye countertrend strategy ke jo ke market ke direction ke khilaaf ho. Entry position lagane ka moqa tab ho sakta hai jab market downward correction karte hue 1.3254 ke RBS area ke qareeb aaye. Aakhri baat yeh hai ke RSI indicator parameter (14) bhi musalsal level 50 ke upar hai, jo ke upward momentum ka saboot hai.

GBP/USD currency pair ki price behaviour ka analysis kiya gaya hai. Daily chart par GBP/USD pehle ek range mein trade kar raha tha, jab yeh lag raha tha ke UK apni monetary policy ka tightening process rok sakta hai. Jab yeh khabar public hui, toh pair 1.23040 ke support level tak gir gaya. Iske baad, yeh mumkin tha ke interest rates ko adjust kiya ja raha hai, jis ki wajah se pair ne phir se apni pehle ki high levels ko touch kiya, jo ke unexpected tha. Jab US ka unemployment data samnay aya, pair ne phir se rise shuru kiya, jo ke yeh expectation thi ke US mein inflation dramatically slow ho jaye ga, lekin yeh development waisa nahi hua. Federal Reserve ne rates 51 basis points se cut kiye, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke pair ka yeh upward movement zyada dair tak sustain nahi karega. Mera khayal hai ke yeh pair ab overbought hai aur mujhe umeed hai ke yeh 1.29651 ke support level tak giray ga. Main anticipate karta hoon ke yeh lower trade karta rahe ga jab tak US inflation data mein koi meaningful decline ka signal na milay.

Pichlay Jumay ko is downward trend ko reverse karne ki koshish hui thi, lekin ek unexpected US event ne stock market mein sharp rise ko trigger kiya, aur trading 1.329 ke upar close hui. Phir bhi, pair ek expanding triangle mein hai jo ke ek ascending wedge ke shape mein hai. Is wedge ka break tab expected hai jab price EMA20 ke neeche giray, jo ke abhi 1.3251 par hai. Sabse qareebi support EMA8 ke fast level par hai, jo ke 1.3294 par situated hai. Halankeh main transatlantic logistics par insights provide nahi kar sakta, lekin yeh baat clear hai ke US economy ko apni energy self-sufficiency ka faida hai, jo UK economy par advantage hai. Filhaal, main ab bhi is pair mein decline dekhta hoon, lekin ghalat hone ka chance bhi hamesha hota hai. Hamein dekhna ho ga ke GBP/USD is haftay kaise react karta hai, kyun ke zyada tar significant news events ho chuke hain, jo ek potential correction ka signal dete hain.

GBP/USD currency pair ki price behavior ka analysis kerte hain. H1 chart ke mutabiq, GBP/USD aik aur upward move ke liye tayar ho raha hai, jo ke 1.3366 ka potential reversal level touch kar sakta hai aur ho sakta hai ke ascending hourly channel ke upper boundary ko test kare. Jumma ko price 1.3305 ke upar close hui thi, is liye is scenario ka chance zyada hai. Bollinger Bands bhi upward direction ki taraf ishaara kar rahe hain, jo ke yeh batata hai ke price aik nayi high ko touch kar sakti hai pehle ke price correction aaye. Monday ya Tuesday tak yeh clear ho jayega ke market nayi peaks ko touch karega pehle ke pullback aaye ya pehle ek corrective decline hoga. Tuesday tak, mujhe zyada precise signals ki umeed hai. Mera khayal hai ke bullish trend reverse hoke upward se downward direction mein shift hoga. Agar aisa hota hai, to 1.2749 level ko dekhna hoga, kyun ke yeh aik technical gap hai jo abhi tak close nahi hua.


Upper levels ke liye, 1.3399 ab bhi nazar mein hai, lekin koi jaldi nahi. Yeh behtar hoga ke pehle correction ka intezar kiya jaye us target ko hit karne se pehle. Price abhi bhi ascending channel ke andar hai. Jumma raat ko pair ne reversal li aur upward move start kiya. Halankeh yeh upper boundary tak nahi pohoncha, mera andaza hai ke pair continue karega rise karte hue, aur target channel ki upper limit par hoga, jo ke 1.3343 hai. Jab yeh level hit hoga, mujhe umeed hai ke price reverse karegi aur lower boundary ki taraf move karegi, jo ke takreeban 1.3226 par hai. Daily chart ke overall upward momentum ko dekhte hue, buying opportunities consider karna logical lagta hai. Levels calculate karte hue, buy entry ka level around 1.3199 (futures) hai, jo zaroori nahi ke maximum ho, aur breakout bhi ho sakta hai. Is situation ko closely monitor karna hoga jab tak yeh develop hoti hai.

Do hafton ke upward trend ke baad, GBPUSD pair ka price is hafte 4-hour chart per dikhaye gaye ascending price channels mein trade kar raha hai. Price ko channels ke middle lines se support mila, lekin uske baad price girna shuru hua aur weekly pivot level jo ke support level hai, tak pohanch gaya. Price ab lower channel lines ke qareeb hai.

Is liye, aglay price direction ko samajhne ke liye aap is area mein price behavior ka intezar aur observation kar sakte hain. Agar price channels ko downward break kar ke unke neechay aik ghanta trade karta hai, tou sale ka decision liya ja sakta hai.

Isi tarah, agar price upward action dikhata hai aur channel line ke upar trade karta hai aur weekly pivot level se ooper chala jata hai, tou purchase ki position enter ki ja sakti hai.

Economic side par, ek disappointing consumer survey yeh dikhata hai ke hukoomat ka pessimistic tone economy aur mulki finances par khaufnak asar daal raha hai. Office for National Statistics ke mutabiq British retail sales volumes August mein 1.0% ka monthly izafa dikhata hai, jo ke July ki figure se double hai aur 0.4% growth ki umeed se ziada hai.

Economic diary ke natayej ke mutabiq annual growth 1.5% se barh ke 2.5% ho gayi hai, jo ke 1.4% expectations se behtar hai. Yeh strong reading Bank of England ke interest rates further cut na karne ke faislay ko support karti hai aur GBP/USD ka exchange rate 1.3340 resistance tak barh gaya hai. Magar risks barqarar hain, kyun ke consumer confidence gir raha hai. GfK consumer confidence survey, jo ke mulk ka sabse important survey hai, ne September mein confidence mein significant girawat dikhayi hai, jahan headline index 7 points se gir gaya.

Consumer confidence ahem ho ga is baat ka taayun karne mein ke retail sales ka ye izafa barqarar reh sakta hai ya nahi. Aane walay headwinds mein Autumn Budget bhi shamil hai, jo ke aik bleak event ho sakta hai, jab hukoomat tax barhane ka irada kar rahi hai taake apni fiscal position behter kar sake.

GBP USD ANALYSIS UPDATES

Aaj ki GBPUSD analysis mein hum mukhtalif time frames ka jaiza leinge taake market ki dynamics ko samajh sakein aur potential trading opportunities identify kar sakein.

**Haal ka Market Activity**

Hum ne dekha ke GBPUSD trading activity kuch khaas active nahi rahi recently. Kal subah, Asian session ke aaghaz mein, GBPUSD ne pehle ek initial gain experience kiya, aur 1.3100 tak chali gayi. Is ke baad, GBPUSD ki movement phir se decline hui, kyun ke candle 1.3100 ke SBR region ko break nahi kar saka. Iss decline ke baad, nearest support level breach ho gaya, jis ki wajah se GBPUSD ka price gir kar 1.3060 tak pohanch gaya.

**Naye Signals**

Is level par ek doji candle form hui hai, jo ke market direction mein tabdeeli ka ishara de rahi hai. Jab ye point hit hua, to GBPUSD ne dobara rise karna shuru kiya, jo ek upward movement ka saboot hai. Filhal GBPUSD ka price 1.3080 par hai. H1 support ka strength 1.3060 par test kiya jayega. Agar yeh price level breach ho jata hai, to movement slow ho sakti hai, aur agar breach nahi hota, to trend upar ki taraf continue karne ka imkaan hai. Saath hi saath, ye bhi possible hai ke nearby support se GBPUSD ko downward push milay.

**Chaar Ghantay ka Time Frame Analysis**

4-hour time frame chart par GBPUSD ne apni strength barqarar rakhi hai jab se upward momentum gain kiya hai. Ab tak dono lines ek dosray ko cross nahi kiye, halaan ke kijun sen line breach ho gayi hai. Mere khayal mein confirmation ke liye behtar hai ke dono lines ka cross hone ka intezaar kiya jaye.

**Demand Region Dynamics**

Candle abhi demand region ke andar hai, to mujhe yaqeen hai ke intersection jald hoga. Upward trend yeh batata hai ke bullish signal abhi bhi moujood hai. Magar ehtiyaat zaroori hai kyun ke agar line level 80 tak pohanch kar downward pivot karti hai, to GBPUSD mein decline trigger ho sakta hai. Aur base demand area jo ke 1.3051 ka price hai, ab tak breach nahi hua.



**Nateeja**

Is analysis se aap market conditions aur GBPUSD ke trading opportunities ko behtar samajh sakeinge. Hamesha ehtiyaat se kaam lein aur market ke mutabiq decisions karein.

Pichle hafte ke shuruat se GBP/USD market ka analysis dikhata hai ke price downward correction ke taraf chal raha tha jab tak 100-period simple moving average line se neeche gir gaya. Bearish trend ne price ko lowest monthly zone tak, yani 1.3001 tak le aaya. Lekin jab market agay chali, to bearish trend continue nahi ho saka kyun ke buyers ne control le liya. Agar hum chart ko dekhein, to market shuruat se zyadatar bullish side par move kar raha tha, jo lowest position ko chhodte hue upar gaya.Pichle hafte seller ke pressure ki wajah se ek downward correction hua tha, lekin is hafte yeh bearish trend continue nahi ho saka. Abhi price 100-period simple moving average line se upar chal raha hai, aur buyer ab bhi upward trend ko maintain karne ki koshish mein hain. Journal ke update ke waqt, price 1.3347 zone ke aas paas chal raha tha, jo shuruat-e-hafta se zyada upar hai. Agar hum pichle kuch hafton ka price trend dekhein, to lagta hai ke price ka increase candlestick ko uptrend side par maintain karne mein madad karega.Akhri raat AUD/USD pair 1.3311 par open hua, aur 4-hour time frame par clearly dikh raha hai ke buyers ka control pichle hafte se price ko upar le ja raha hai. Halanke last week downward correction dekhne ko mili, buyers ab bhi umeed rakhe hue hain ke aglay uptrend ko dekhne ka mauqa milega. Pichle do hafton ka market trend zyadatar bullish raha hai, aur lagta hai ke is hafte bhi market uptrend ko continue karne ke liye intezar kar raha hai.Jab tak candlesticks 100-period simple moving average line se upar chalti hain, mere khayal mein is hafte market ke paas uptrend ko continue karne ka mauqa hai. Lekin Asian session mein market thoda quiet rehta hai aur correction dekhne ko mil sakti hai, is liye humein dopahar ya shaam tak intezar karna hoga taake koi clear trading signal mil sake. Agar buyers price ko 1.3362 - 1.3376 ke aas paas le jaane mein kaamyab ho jate hain, to agla bullish target 1.3424 ka price zone hoga.

GBP/USD forex pair par Monday ko ek bullish candle close hui jis ke neeche ek bara shadow tha. Hello dosto main dil se tumhein mubarakbaad deta hoon kyunki tumne bohot aqalmandi se profits hasil kiye. Main computer par nahi tha is liye tech earnings ke nazdeek nahi pohanch saka kal ye kaafi afsos ki baat hai aur aaj jo hai wo hai asal mein agar hum is saal ke January ke baad ki picture ko dekhein to humare paas ek bohot clear leader hai khat kahta hai ke yeh tareeqa pehle hi kaam kar chuka hai yeh teen martaba test kiya ja chuka hai agar choti choti baat par na jayen to yeh char martaba samjha ja sakta hai lekin meri raaye mein hum abhi thoda short hain kyunki top north mein tha 1.3380 aur yahan se hum south ki taraf ja rahe hain indicators ka jo analysis hai uske mutabiq humare paas ye hai dono different moving averages abhi bhi north ke favor mein dikh rahe hain ek trend angle ke saath jo 10 degrees par hai ichimoku cloud bhi bright rangon mein paint hua hai aur ek angle of inclination 40 degrees ka hai jo north ki taraf pull kar raha hai light MACD abhi ek bullish wave par kaam kar raha hai jisme doosra half of wave ban raha hai lekin ismein ek clear bearish divergence dikhai de rahi hai koi sell signal abhi tak nahi aaya light stochastic ka bhi koi sell signal nahi hai jo ab overbought zone par kaam kar raha hai extended oscillator par teen bullish sub-waves complete ho chuki hain phir se MACD ya PCAi moving averages se koi sell signals nahi aaye ab dekhna yeh hai ke ya to 1.3380 resistance ka test hoga aur wahan se sell hoga ya phir 1.3205 support ka breakout hoga.

GBP/USD H1 Analysis
Assalam-o-Alaikum doston, aaj dopahar mein GBP/USD currency pair ka H1 time frame par analysis karne ki koshish karunga. Guzishta chand dino mein GBP/USD H1 time frame par kaafi pressure mein raha hai aur jab market aaj close hogi, toh yeh currency pair ab bhi upar ya neeche trade kar raha hoga. Is ke baraks, is mein izafa ho sakta hai. Jab market mein bari movement hoti hai, toh hum technical analysis ke zariye GBP/USD currency pair mein entry lene ki koshish karenge.

Mein H1 time frame par trend ko samajhne ke liye moving average indicator period 21 aur moving average indicator period 34 ka bhi istimaal karunga. Filhaal price apne moving average indicators ke upar move kar rahi hai, isliye GBP/USD bullish trend mein hai, jahan yeh agle resistance 1.3264 ke price level tak push karne ki salahiyat rakhta hai.

Kal Friday ko GBP/USD market pair par sellers ka zyada control tha, jo ke buyers ke bullish trend ko resistance area 1.3153-1.3150 ke neeche rokne mein kaamyab rahe. Yeh resistance area sellers ne mazbooti se defend kiya, jis se price neeche bearish move karne lagi, halankeh yeh distance ziada bara nahi tha, lekin sellers ka control zyada dikhai diya.

Daily time frame par Moving Average indicator ke zariye dekha jaye, toh price ab bhi Red MA 50 area 1.2954-1.2956 ke upar hai, aur bullish candlesticks dobara dominate kar rahi hain. Lekin, strong seller determination ki wajah se jab market close hogi, toh sellers ke paas bearish move ko continue karne ka moqa ho sakta hai. Unka target hoga ke price ko buyer support area 1.3035-1.3033 ke neeche le jayein, aur agar yeh level break ho gaya, toh Red MA 50 area tak raste khul sakte hain.

Monday ke trading session mein ab bhi bearish trend continue hone ke chances hain, jab tak sellers prices ko apne resistance area ke neeche rakhe hue hain. Bearish seller ka pehla target buyer support area 1.3104-1.3102 hoga, aur agar yeh level validly break ho gaya, toh agla target buyer demand support area 1.3055-1.3053 hoga.


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/USD par abhi bhi US dollar par dabao bana hua hai, kyunki kuch analysts ne investors ko yeh samjhaane ki koshish ki hai ke Federal Reserve apne agle meeting mein interest rates ko 50 basis points se kam kar sakta hai. Mazedaar baat yeh hai ke jo inflation data release hua, woh kaafi contradictory hai, lekin analysts ne sirf un statistics ka zikr kiya jo US mein inflation ke slow hone ko dikhata hai, jo Fed ke liye aggressive steps lene ka sabab ban sakta hai. Yeh sab kuch market ko manipulate karne ki ek aur koshish lagta hai. Daily chart par technical situation tayar ho rahi hai, kyunki prices red moving average ke upar laut kar aayi hain, lekin abhi bhi blue moving average tak nahi pahunche, jo ke kuch points se neeche hai. Is wajah se unhone apni downward movement ko resume kiya. Kal ke pullback ke baad, prices ne 23.6% Fibonacci grid level, yaani 1.3122 ke ahm level ko tod diya aur is se neeche close kiya. Iske baad downward movement ka jari rehna mumkin hai, jo 1.3035 level tak pahunch sakta hai, jo ke current trading range ka lower limit hai. Yeh support tak pahunchne ki umeed ko badha raha hai.

Is waqt, pair ka mood bullish hai. Sab candles is space ke upar bani hui hain, jo is baat ka aur saboot hai. Agar prices is range ke upar breakout aur consolidation karte hain, toh declining US inflation ki wajah se intraday uptrend ki chances barh jayengi. Is se sellers ke stop orders khatam honge aur long positions ke liye acha entry point mil sakta hai, jiska target 1.3140 hoga. Aakhri target 1.3168 ke ird-gird hoga, jahan mein profits le lunga.

Agar GBP/USD mein girawat hoti hai aur buyers ki activity agar 1.3073 par nahi milti, toh pair par dabao barh jayega. Yeh bhi decline ki taraf le ja sakta hai aur agla support level 1.3049 ka retest hoga, jo buyers ki plans ko khatam kar dega. Sirf is level par ek false breakout hona long positions kholne ka acha mauka dega.

Mujhe umeed hai ke 1.3012 ke low se rebound par mein GBP/USD kharidunga, jiska target 30-35 points ka intraday correction hoga. Is waqt, market ki halat par nazar rakhna aur trading opportunities ka faida utha

GBP/USD H1 Analysis
Assalam-o-Alaikum doston, aaj dopahar mein GBP/USD currency pair ka H1 time frame par analysis karne ki koshish karunga. Guzishta chand dino mein GBP/USD H1 time frame par kaafi pressure mein raha hai aur jab market aaj close hogi, toh yeh currency pair ab bhi upar ya neeche trade kar raha hoga. Is ke baraks, is mein izafa ho sakta hai. Jab market mein bari movement hoti hai, toh hum technical analysis ke zariye GBP/USD currency pair mein entry lene ki koshish karenge.

Mein H1 time frame par trend ko samajhne ke liye moving average indicator period 21 aur moving average indicator period 34 ka bhi istimaal karunga. Filhaal price apne moving average indicators ke upar move kar rahi hai, isliye GBP/USD bullish trend mein hai, jahan yeh agle resistance 1.3264 ke price level tak push karne ki salahiyat rakhta hai.

Kal Friday ko GBP/USD market pair par sellers ka zyada control tha, jo ke buyers ke bullish trend ko resistance area 1.3153-1.3150 ke neeche rokne mein kaamyab rahe. Yeh resistance area sellers ne mazbooti se defend kiya, jis se price neeche bearish move karne lagi, halankeh yeh distance ziada bara nahi tha, lekin sellers ka control zyada dikhai diya.

Daily time frame par Moving Average indicator ke zariye dekha jaye, toh price ab bhi Red MA 50 area 1.2954-1.2956 ke upar hai, aur bullish candlesticks dobara dominate kar rahi hain. Lekin, strong seller determination ki wajah se jab market close hogi, toh sellers ke paas bearish move ko continue karne ka moqa ho sakta hai. Unka target hoga ke price ko buyer support area 1.3035-1.3033 ke neeche le jayein, aur agar yeh level break ho gaya, toh Red MA 50 area tak raste khul sakte hain.

Monday ke trading session mein ab bhi bearish trend continue hone ke chances hain, jab tak sellers prices ko apne resistance area ke neeche rakhe hue hain. Bearish seller ka pehla target buyer support area 1.3104-1.3102 hoga, aur agar yeh level validly break ho gaya, toh agla target buyer demand support area 1.3055-1.3053 hoga.

British Pound/US Dollar ke hourly timeframe ka price action dekhte hue, main buying positions ke liye market mein enter karna kafi logical samajhta hoon. Yeh conclusion mere kuch key points par adharit hai: price 200-period moving average (MA200) ke upar hai, jo bullish trend ko darshata hai; pichle din ke dusre hisson mein pair ne opening level se upar jaakar din ko higher close kiya; din ke dauran price upper Bollinger Band ke kareeb aa gayi, jo bullish sentiment ko indicate karta hai aur price ke aage badhne ki high probability ko dikhata hai; RSI indicator bhi buying positions ke liye rokawat nahi kar raha, kyunki yeh acceptable range mein hai. Take profit ko 211% Fibonacci level par set karne ke baad, position ko breakeven par move karne aur stop loss ko distant Fibonacci levels tak trail karne ka plan hai. Halanki, GBP/USD ne Thursday ko significant reversal dekha aur 1.3100 level ke neeche gir gaya, jo stronger-than-expected US economic data ke kaaran hua. US Dollar Index (DXY) 101.60 tak ucha gaya, lekin Federal Reserve ke potential interest rate cut ke speculation ki wajah se US dollar ki outlook uncertain hai. Recent data aur employment decline ne recession ke concerns ko barhaya aur rate cut ki umeed ko fuel kiya. Aaj ke din pair ke conditions mein zyada tabdeeli nahi hai. 1.2680 ka support key role ada kar sakta hai; agar is support ko todna possible hota hai, to pair downward impulse continue kar sakta hai aur 1.2570 tak ja sakta hai. Yahan se shayad ek rollback shuru hoga aur phir 1.2447 tak downward movement ho sakti hai, lekin is hafte tak yeh possible nahi lagta. Agar 1.2680 ke neeche consolidation nahi hoti, to 1.2750 tak phir se growth ho sakti hai, jahan is resistance ko todna zaroori hoga taake 1.2860 tak ek aur impulse ban sake. Yeh upward trend 1.3065 tak lead kar sakta hai, lekin is hafte aisa growth unlikely hai. Agar 1.2750 ki resistance todna possible hota hai, to shayad 1.2860 tak pahucha ja sakta hai, lekin 1.300 se upar ke levels par expect nahi kiya jana chahiye. Maximum 1.2970 tak pahunchna possible hai, aur yahan tak bhi chances zyada nahi lagte.

Gbp/usd pair ne wednesday ko US dollar ke muqablay mein kamzor hua jab US inflation data release hui, jis ne yeh suggest kiya ke Federal Reserve ab sooch samajh kar interest rate cuts karegi. CPI overall expectation ke mutabiq barhi, lekin core CPI, jo ke food aur energy ke ilawa hoti hai, thodi ziada barhi jo anticipate ki gayi thi. Yeh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke mehngai ke pressure abhi bhi zyada hai, jo ke Fed ki ability ko aggressively rates cut karne se rok sakti hai. Iss data ke nateeje mein, Fed ki aane wali meeting mein 50 basis point rate cut ki probability kam ho gayi hai, jab ke 25 basis point cut puri tarah se priced in hai. Iss shift ne US dollar ko support diya, jis ne strength hasil ki jab investors ne kam dovish Fed ke umeed rakhi. GBP/USD ne apna downward trend resume kar liya early European trade mein, aur ek key support level ko tod diya. Ager girawat jaari rahi, toh selling pressure April-July ke uptrend ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement aur 20-day simple moving average ki taraf barh sakta hai. Agar downside momentum jaari raha, toh bearish cycle lower support levels tak barh sakti hai, jin mein 38.2% Fibonacci level aur 50-day moving average bhi shamil hai. Technically, GBP/USD ka short-term outlook bearish hai. RSI aur Stochastic indicators neeche ki taraf muft rahe hain, jab ke MACD red signal line ke neeche break kar chuki hai. Lekin moving averages ki upward slope yeh suggest karti hai ke current bearish wave larger uptrend ka hissa ho sakti hai. Yeh factors ke ilawa bhi kai aur factors hain jo GBP/USD ko near term mein influence kar sakte hain. In sab complex factors ki waja se, short-term mein GBP/USD ka move predict karna mushkil hai. Lekin current bearish trend se yeh risk pata chalta hai ke near future mein aur girawat ho sakti hai. Lekin doosre events aur factors bhi bulls ko dubara support kar sakte hain. Market behavior ya sentiment ko analyze karte rehna chahiye taake galtiyon se bacha ja sake aur usko puri tarah samjha ja sake. Market sentiment aksar price movements ko drive karta hai, aur usko samajhne se participants ko edge mil sakti hai. Sentiment analysis ka ek important hissa yeh hai ke samjha jaye ke doosre participants kis tarah position liye hue hain aur woh mukhtalif price levels par kis tarah react kar sakte hain. Jab bulls resistance ko test karne ki koshish karenge, toh yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke market mein strong consensus hai ya phir indecision ke signs hain

GBP/USD ke liye bullish potential abhi bhi achi halat mein hai, kyun ke Pound ne Bank of Britain (BoE) aur US Central Bank (Fed) ke darmiyan maali policy ke farq ka faida uthaya, jo ke national banks ki meeting ke dauran zahir hua.

Fed ne Wednesday ko 50 basis points ka interest rate cut kiya, jis se Fed funds rate 4.75%-5.0% ke daira mein aa gaya. Economic Projections ki list, jo ke Spot Plot chart kehlati hai, ne is saal aur agle saal mein kul 100 basis points ke rate cuts ka izhar kiya.

Is ke muqabil, BoE ne Thursday ko apne policy rate ko 5.0% par rakha, jab ke Governor Andrew Bailey ne warn kiya ke policymakers ko "bohot jaldi ya zyada na kaatne" ka khayal rakhna chahiye.

Dono national banks ke darmiyan ke is farq ne GBP/USD pair mein zyada udaan di, jo ke Thursday ko 1.3315 par 30-maheene ka naya uncha point bana. Khareedne walay haftay ke aakhir mein bhi in control rahe, jab ke China ke maali slowdown ke hawale se khauf tha.

Haftay ke shuru mein, GBP/USD ne 1.3200 ke aas-paas apne recovery mode ko pakar ke rakha, kyun ke traders ne national banks ke faisle se pehle kisi bhi major bet se door rehne ka faisla kiya.

US Retail Sales ka data Tuesday ko aaya, jo kaafi strong tha aur is ne USD ke liye 'soft landing' ki umeed ko kuch waqt ke liye behtar kiya, lekin ye optimism jaldi khatam ho gaya jab Fed ka faisla aaya. Retail Sales pichle mahine 0.1% barh gayi, jab ke July mein 1.1% ka izafa dekha gaya, ye US Trade Department ke Census Bureau ne bataya.

Is beech, UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ne Friday ko data publish kiya, jis ne dikhaya ke UK mein Retail Sales August mein 1.0% tak barh gayi, jab ke July mein 0.5% ka izafa hua tha. Ye data expected 0.4% growth se behtar raha, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke UK ki economy bhi kuch acha kar rahi hai.

Is tarah, GBP/USD ka trend bullish rahne ki umeed hai, lekin market ki halat aur globa

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Kal rat se market ki suratehal me koi tabdili nahin aayi hai. Pound/dollar ka joda ab bhi 1.33514 ki muzahmati satah se ooper trade kar raha hai, lekin qimat is se zyada dur nahin hai. Bartanwi currency sideways me badh rahi hai. Mai aaj mandi ke move ki tawaqqo karta hun. Mumkena taur par pound/dollar ka joda niche ki taraf palatne se pahle tai shudah hadaf ki taraf fislega. Mai jodi ko descending trend line tak jate hue aur 1.31749 ki support satah ka test karte hue dekhna chahunga.