gbp/usd

Good day sab ko! Pichlay chaar hafton se British Pound aur US Dollar ke darmiyan currency pair (GBPUSD) lagataar decline ho raha hai, aur four-hour timeframe par bearish trend clearly visible hai. Isliye, jab tak price descending channel ke andar trade kar rahi hai, kisi bhi purchases ki baat nahi ho sakti. Magar, is channel ki upper line se achi selling opportunities mil sakti hain. Abhi jo sabse bara sawal hai, woh yeh hai ke GBPUSD currency pair kitna neeche gir sakta hai.
Latest correction jo low 1.2706 se lekar high 1.2839 tak hui, uski base par hum Fibonacci grid stretch karne ki koshish kar sakte hain, jiska 161st level 1.2630 par locate hota hai. Is waqt yeh assumption lagayi ja sakti hai ke price is level ki taraf gir sakti hai, jo ke support level 1.2612 ke sath bhi nicely coincide karta hai, jo ke June month ka minimum hai. Halaanki, aisa koi rukaawat nahi hai jo price ko round support level 1.25 tak girne se rok sake.

Is waqt ke market condition ko dekhte hue, descending channel mein trading ke dauran koi bhi buying opportunity consider nahi ki jani chahiye. Magar agar price upper boundary ke qareeb pohchti hai, to selling ke liye acha mauqa ho sakta hai.

Fibonacci analysis ke madad se, current trend ka continuation hona expected hai aur is baat ke strong chances hain ke price apne next support levels tak gir sakti hai. Sabse pehla target 1.2630 hoga, jo ke ek strong technical level hai. Iske neeche, 1.2612 jo ke June ka low hai, ek next critical point hoga. Agar price yeh levels break karti hai, to round number 1.25 tak girne ke chances barh jate hain.

Overall, yeh sab kuch bearish market sentiment ko indicate karta hai, aur traders ko cautious rehna chahiye aur descending channel ke andar opportunities ke mutabiq sell positions par focus karna chahiye. Har price movement par nazar rakhte hue, agar price lower support levels par aati hai to wahan se bhi selling opportunities ko explore karna chahiye. Yeh strategy current market trend ke sath aligned rehne mein madad karegi aur potential profits ko maximize karne ka chance de sakti hai.

اگست 8 2024 کو برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

بدھ کو، برطانوی پاؤنڈ نے بڑھنے کی اصلاحی کوشش کی، جہاں اسے توازن اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. (1.2727) انڈیکیٹر لائن پر مضبوط مزاحمت کا سامنا کرنا پڑا اور دن کی ابتدائی سطح پر پیچھے ہٹ گیا۔ قیمت انڈیکیٹر لائنوں کے نیچے مضبوط ہوگئی، اور مارلن آسیلیٹر نے نیچے کی طرف اپنی رفتار کو برقرار رکھا۔



قیمت 1.2633 کی سپورٹ لیول کی طرف بڑھ رہی ہے۔ اس سطح سے نیچے کو مضبوط کرنے سے 1.2517 کا ہدف کھل جائے گا (5 فروری کی کم ترین سطح)۔ 4 گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، یہ قابل توجہ ہے کہ کنورجنس کے بعد جوڑے کا اضافہ کافی کم تھا، کیونکہ پاؤنڈ نے اعلیٰ پیمانے پر مزاحمت کا سامنا کیا۔



تاہم، اب ایک ڈبل کنورجنس بننے کا خطرہ ہے، جو 1.2633 پر ٹارگٹ سپورٹ کے ذریعے کام کرنے کے بعد ہوسکتا ہے۔ ہم ابھی تک مارکیٹ کے الٹ جانے کی توقع نہیں کرتے ہیں، اس لیے ہم اس طرح کے دوہرے کنورژنس کی صورت میں 1.2633-1.2727 کی حد میں افقی حرکت کی توقع کرتے ہیں۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

### GBP/USD H4 Chart Analysis

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2701 as investors gear up for US SRF President Jerome Powell's speech today at 19:00 (GMT+4). For the past three days, the pair has been unable to break through the strong resistance level of 1.2695. During his speech, Powell is expected to announce a more significant rate hike than previously anticipated to combat inflation. At the next meeting on July 25, many investors anticipate a rate increase of 76 basis points, rather than 55. Such a decision could push the GBP/USD pair up to the 1.2710 level. However, as long as Powell maintains his current stance on monetary policy, the dollar might weaken, leading to a correction in the pair to 0.9890.

### Market Expectations and Economic Indicators

- **CME FedWatch Tool:** Reports an increase in the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts in September, rising to 72.6% from 66% a week ago. This shift is due to weakening US economic indicators, particularly in the labor market. The overall economic health of the US appears to be slowing down, prompting market participants to anticipate proactive measures from the Federal Reserve.

- **US Service Sector:** Concluded the second quarter on a subdued note. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June recorded a contraction, falling to 48.8, the lowest in four years. This index is a crucial barometer for service sector activities, which constitute two-thirds of the US economy, and its contraction signals challenges within the US economy, influencing broader market sentiments and currency exchange rates.

### Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair hovered around 1.2701 on Wednesday. Technical analysis reveals a bearish inclination, with the pair consolidating within a descending channel on the daily chart. Despite this, the 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) suggests a potential weakening of the bearish trend, with its current position above the 50 level indicating room for further upward movement.

### Rewritten in Roman Urdu

### GBP/USD H4 Chart Analysis

GBP/USD is waqt 1.2701 par trade kar raha hai jabke investors aaj ke US SRF President Jerome Powell ke speech ka intezar kar rahe hain jo ke 19:00 (GMT+4) par hoga. Pechle teen dinon se yeh pair strong resistance level 1.2695 ko break nahi kar paya. Apne speech ke dauran, Powell se yeh umeed hai ke woh pehle se ziada significant rate hike ka elan karenge taake inflation se lara ja sake. Agle meeting mein, jo 25 July ko hai, bohot se investors umeed kar rahe hain ke rate 76 basis points tak barhaya jaega, 55 se nahi. Aise faislay se GBP/USD pair 1.2710 level tak pohonch sakta hai. Lekin jab tak Powell apni monetary policy ke hawale se yeh rhetoric barkarar rakhte hain, dollar kamzor ho sakta hai jo ke pair ko 0.9890 tak correct kar sakta hai.

### Market Expectations aur Economic Indicators

- **CME FedWatch Tool:** Federal Reserve rate cuts ke September mein barhne ka probability report kiya hai, jo 72.6% tak barh gaya hai, 66% se jo ek haftay pehle tha. Yeh tabdili US ke economic indicators ke kamzori ki wajah se hai, khaaskar labor market mein. US ke overall economic health slow ho rahi hai, jo market participants ko prompt kar rahi hai ke woh Federal Reserve se proactive measures anticipate karein.

- **US Service Sector:** Dusre quarter ko ek subdued note par conclude kiya. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June contraction record kiya, jo 48.8 tak gir gaya, jo chaar saalon ka lowest hai. Yeh index crucial barometer hai service sector activities ka, jo ke US economy ka do tihayi hai, aur iska contraction US economy mein challenges ko signal karta hai, jo broader market sentiments aur currency exchange rates ko influence karta hai.

### Technical Analysis

GBP/USD pair budh ke din 1.2701 ke ird gird hover kar raha tha. Technical analysis ek bearish inclination ko reveal karta hai, jahan pair descending channel mein daily chart par consolidate kar raha hai. Iske bawajood, 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) suggest karta hai ke bearish trend ki weakening ho sakti hai, aur is waqt iska position 50 level ke upar hai jo further upward movement ke liye room indicate karta hai.

GBP/USD (chart - H1)
Northern targets hain: resistance-1 (1.2721), resistance-2 (1.2742), resistance-3 (1.2772), aur resistance-4 (1.2801). Southern targets hain: pivot level (1.2700), support-1 (1.2678), support-2 (1.2651), support-3 (1.2622), aur support-4 (1.2599).

Yeh pair ek descending channel mein trade kar raha hai, aur moving averages EMA (50, 100, 200) ke niche hai. Asian session ke doran, bears pehli support level ko break karne mein fail ho gaye aur ek rise shuru hui. Pichli candle mein, bulls EMA-50 (red) ke upar close karne mein nakam rahe, jo further growth ka signal hota. Filhal, bears ek bearish candle form kar rahe hain, aur agar yeh candle pivot level ke neeche close hoti hai, to selling opportunities consider ki ja sakti hain. Is case mein, confirmation ke liye pehli support level ke neeche signal dekhna hoga.

Buying opportunities us waqt consider ki ja sakti hain jab bulls pivot level aur EMA-50 ke upar close karte hain. Lekin, buying karte waqt, yeh zaroori hai ke EMA-100 (blue) ya EMA-200 (light blue) se ek strong downward rebound ho sakta hai, jo ke southern trend ko phir se resume kar sakta hai.

Agar price EMA-100 ya EMA-200 ke paas se girti hai, to downward trend ko dhyan mein rakhte hue, buying decisions mein caution zaroori hai. EMA levels ka resistance price ko bounce karwa sakta hai aur ek significant decline ko trigger kar sakta hai.

Short-term trading ke liye, yeh zaroori hai ke har movement aur indicator signals ko closely monitor kiya jaye. Trading ke dauran, EMA levels aur support-resistance zones ko dekhte hue decisions lena chahiye. Yeh approach market movements ko accurately gauge karne aur effective trading strategies banane mein madad karegi.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for Today: Key Levels and Market Insights

GBP/USD ka jorha kuch mix performance dikhata raha hai, halanki kal ke trading session ne chalanar khat ki taraf ishara kiya. Khareedaaron ne daam ko upar lejanay ki koshish ki, lekin din ke akhri mein, daam phir se apne shuruati level par aa gaya, jo bearish trend ko barqarar rakhta hai. Filhal, mukhya support aur resistance levels par nazar rakhni hai jo is jorhay ki short-term disha tay karenge.

Key Support aur Resistance Levels:

1. Immediate Support: Pehli key support level jo dekhna hai wo 1.2680 par hai. Agar is support se neeche break hota hai toh GBP/USD ka jorha neeche ki taraf barh sakta hai, agla target 1.2570 hoga. Agar ye support level bhi tut gaya, toh 1.2447 tak girawat dekhi ja sakti hai, lekin is level tak is hafte tak pohanchna mushkil lagta hai.
2. Immediate Resistance: Upar ki taraf, initial resistance 1.2750 par hai. Kisi significant upward movement ke liye, daam ko is level ko tod kar uspe establish hona hoga. Agar yeh sambhav ho gaya toh rally 1.2860 ki taraf ja sakti hai. Halankeh 1.2860 se upar nikalna is hafte mushkil ho sakta hai. Agar 1.2750 ki resistance toot jaati hai toh 1.2970 ke aas paas ek aur realistic target ho sakta hai. Lekin, 1.3000 se upar nikalna is hafte mujhe naqablagh dikhai deta hai.

Market Outlook:

4-ghante ke chart ko dekhkar pata chalta hai ke GBP/USD jorha Bollinger Bands ke beechon mein hai, jo ab chamak raha hai. Ye chamak yeh batata hai ke daam kisi bhi disha mein move kar sakta hai. Traders ko upper ya lower band ke paas price action ki dekhni chahiye taake potential breakout directions ka pata chal sake. Agar bands breakout ke baad khulti hain, toh yeh trend ko confirm karega.

Fractal Analysis:

Haal ki fractal formations kuch movement scenarios dikhate hain. Agar sabse nazdeek fractal se neeche breakout hota hai toh girewaat July 2 ke fractal tak 1.26148 tak pahunchegi. Doosri taraf, nazdeek fractal se upar breakout hone par daam August 6 ke fractal tak 1.28026 tak ja sakta hai.

Trading Strategy:

Aaj ke liye, GBP/USD jorhay ki shara'ait zyada nahi badli hain. Traders ko 1.2680 par support aur 1.2750 par resistance par nazar rakhni chahiye. Agar 1.2680 ke niche break hota hai toh yeh aage neeche ki taraf momentum ko ishaara dega, jabke agar 1.2750 ke upar successfully break hota hai toh yeh upar ki taraf jaane ki buniyad tay karega unhen unke resistance levels tak.

Nakhre ke tor par, GBP/USD jorha ek critical juncture par hai jahan aham support aur resistance levels iski agle move ko influence kar rahe hain. Traders ko in levels aur Bollinger Bands ke behavior par nazar rakhni chahiye taake behtar trading decisions le sakein.

US Dollar ki recovery ka silsila ruk gaya hai aur yeh aksar bade peers ke muqablay mein piche hat gaya hai. Greenback ke pehle ke faidaat khatam ho gaye hain, jab ke recession ke khauf dobara ujagar hue hain.

US Dollar index technical rejection ke bawajood 103.00 ke niche phir se trade kar raha hai. US Dollar (USD) aaj ek nervous Thursday ko major peers ke muqablay mein har taraf se dheela ho gaya hai. Markets US Jobless Claims data ke release ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke aaj ke din release hoga. Yeh wahi data point hai jisne pichle hafte volatile period shuru kiya tha aur US Jobs reports ke aage Monday ko sab asset classes mein massive sell-off ka sabab bana.

Economic data ke front par, aaj ka calendar bahut halka hai. Isliye economic data ke terms mein aaj ka haftha pur-sukoon hai, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ki print 2 August tak wale hafte ke liye zyada ahmiyat rakhti hai. Isliye aaj ke Jobless Claims data ke madde nazar rough ride ki ummeed hai.

Pound Sterling (GBP) ka bias downside ki taraf hai; kisi bhi girawat ki halat mein yeh 1.2645 se niche nahi jayega. Rejuvenated momentum yeh darshata hai ke risk ab bhi downside par hai; dekhne wale levels 1.2645 aur 1.2610 hain, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang aur Lee Sue Ann note karte hain. Agla resistance 1.2720 par hai.

24-HOUR VIEW: “Do din pehle, GBP tez gir gaya. Kal humne kaha tha ke ‘jab ke girawat oversold hai, yeh stabilize nahi hui,’ aur humne yeh raye di thi ke GBP 1.2645 tak gir sakta hai, tab stability expect ki ja sakti hai. Humne yeh bhi kaha tha ke resistance 1.2710 par hai; agar 1.2735 ko breach kiya gaya to yeh suggest karega ke GBP ki kamzori stabilize ho gayi hai.’ Hamari raye sach nahi hui, kyunke GBP 1.2682 aur 1.2734 ke beech trade hota raha, aur mostly 1.2689 par close hua (-0.03%). Jab ke downward momentum ka clear increase nahi hai, GBP ka bias ab bhi downside par lagta hai. Aaj, jab tak 1.2720 (minor resistance 1.2700 par hai) ko breach nahi kiya jata, GBP lower ki taraf drift kar sakta hai. Lekin kisi bhi girawat ka 1.2645 se neeche jaana mushkil hai.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Humne GBP ke liye negative view lagbhag do hafton se rakha hai. Do din pehle GBP ke tezi se girne ke baad, humne kal yeh kaha tha ke ‘rejuvenated momentum ye darshata hai ke risk ab bhi downside par hai.’ Humne kaha ke ‘dekhne wale levels 1.2645 aur 1.2610 hain.’ Humne yeh bhi kaha ke ‘aakhri level mazboot support hai (June ke low ke qareeb).’ Hum wahi raye rakhenge jab tak 1.2765 (‘strong resistance’ level 1.2780 kal tha) ko breach nahi kiya jata.”

US Dollar ka recovery ruk gaya aur aksar bade peers ke muqablay mein gir gaya. Greenback ne pehle ki faida khoya jab dobara recession ke khauf samne aaye.

US Dollar index 103.00 ke niche chala gaya aur technical rejection ka samna kar raha hai. US Dollar (USD) har major peer ke muqablay mein gir gaya, ek nervous Thursday ke doran. Markets US Jobless Claims data ke intezar mein halchal mein hain, jo aaj ke din release hone wala hai. Ye wahi data point hai jo pichle hafte ke volatile patch ka sabab bana tha, US Jobs reports se pehle, aur isne Monday ko tamam asset classes mein massive sell-off ka result diya.

Economic data ke front par, aaj ka calendar bohot halki hai. Isliye, economic data ke maamle mein is kaam trading week ke mad e nazar, weekly Initial Jobless Claims print jo 2 August tak ke hafte ke liye hai, uski ahmiyat badh gayi hai. Isliye, Thursday ko Jobless Claims data ke aane ke baad rough ride ki umeed hai.

Pound Sterling (GBP) ke liye bias downside ki taraf hai; koi bhi girawat 1.2645 ke niche nahi girne ki umeed hai. Rejuvenated momentum yeh darshata hai ke risk ab bhi downside par hai; dekhne wale levels hain 1.2645 aur 1.2610, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang aur Lee Sue Ann kehte hain.
Agle resistance ka level 1.2720 hai.

24-HOUR VIEW: “Do din pehle, GBP tezi se gira. Kal, humne kaha tha ke ‘jabke girawat oversold hai, yeh stabilize nahi hui,’ aur humne yeh bhi kaha tha ke GBP 1.2645 tak gir sakta hai jab tak stabilization ki umeed hai. Humne yeh bhi kaha ke resistance 1.2710 hai; agar 1.2735 ko tod diya to GBP ki kamzori stabilize ho sakti hai.’ Hamari ye soch sahi nahi hui, kyunke GBP 1.2682 aur 1.2734 ke beech trade hua aur 1.2689 par largely unchanged close hua (-0.03%). Jabke downward momentum mein koi clear izafa nahi hua, GBP ke liye bias ab bhi downside par lagta hai. Aaj, jab tak 1.2720 (minor resistance 1.2700 par hai) ko nahi todha jata, GBP kam ho sakta hai. Magar koi bhi girawat 1.2645 ke niche girne ki umeed nahi hai.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Humne pichle do hafton se GBP ke negative view ko rakha hai. Jab GBP tezi se gira do din pehle, humne kal kaha tha ke ‘rejuvenated momentum yeh darshata hai ke risk ab bhi downside par hai.’ Humne yeh bhi kaha ke ‘dekhne wale levels hain 1.2645 aur 1.2610.’ Humne yeh bhi kaha ke ‘aakhri level mazboot support hai (June ke low ke nazdeek).’ Hum same view rakhenge jab tak 1.2765 (‘strong resistance’ level kal 1.2780 par tha) nahi todha jata.”

**GBP/USD Analysis**

**Current Market Situation:**

British pound GBP/USD pair ne 1.27200 ke level ke neeche mazbooti se settle ho gaya hai aur ab 1.27000 ke neeche jaane ki koshish kar raha hai. 4-hour chart par dekha gaya hai ke ye koshish abhi chal rahi hai. Yeh scenario American session ke dauran pura hone ke mumkin hai. Is development ke sath, British pound ki U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein decline aage barh sakti hai, jo agle kuch dinon mein ya kal tak market close hone tak 1.26000 tak pohnch sakti hai.

Yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price 1.27200 ke level tak phir se recovery ki koshish kare, lekin aise movements short-lived honge, aur phir 1.27000 ke level par wapas aayenge aur decline hote rahenge.

**Shorter Timeframes ka Analysis:**

Main shorter timeframes ka analysis pasand karta hoon kyun ke yeh chart ko interpret karna aasan banata hai. Is haftay major traders ka trend GBP/USD ko bechne ka hai. GBP/USD ki current minimum value 1.2676 hai, jo short-term trading mein ek aham support level hai. Agar price is level ke upar consolidate karte hai, toh rebound ka chance ban sakta hai.

Sustained bullish outlook ke liye, GBP/USD ko resistance level 1.2735 ke upar break karna padega. Agar yeh level surpass ho jata hai, agla target 1.2800 hoga, aur uske baad further upward movement 1.2900 ke figure ki taraf dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

Lekin agar GBP/USD 1.2676 ke neeche girta hai, toh yeh buying strength ke kam hone ka signal hoga. Yeh increased selling interest ko trigger kar sakta hai, kyun ke asset ki demand kam hone se uski value neeche jayegi. U.S. dollar ke demand ke madde nazar, agar dollar ki demand barhti hai, toh GBP/USD ke liye declines ka ek aur wave dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

**Key Levels:**
Resistance: 1.2735
Support: 1.2676

**Outlook:**
Bullish Scenario: Agar GBP/USD 1.2735 ke upar consolidate karta hai aur phir 1.2800 ko break karta hai, toh gains 1.2900 tak extend ho sakte hain.
Bearish Scenario: Agar price 1.2676 ke neeche girti hai, toh selling pressure barh jayega, jo price ko 1.2600 tak le ja sakta hai.

GBP/USD pair ko dhyan se monitor karein, khas taur par American session ke dauran, yeh dekhne ke liye ke kya current downtrend continue karega ya short-term rebound hoga. Key levels 1.2735 resistance ke liye aur 1.2676 support ke liye watch karein. U.S. dollar ki ongoing demand ko dekhte hue, bearish movements dominate karne ki umeed hai agar selling pressure barhta hai.

mein, global risk appetite mein kami ne British pound ko global markets mein nuksaan pohnchaya hai, jab ke yen ke short positions aggressively cover kiye gaye hain. Is se pehle, British pound carry trades se faida utha raha tha, jisme global investors yen ko bech kar high-yielding instruments mein long positions finance kar rahe the, jisme British pound bhi shamil hai. Haal hi mein, British pound against US dollar (GBP/USD) 1.2662 ke support level tak gir gaya, jo ek mahine se zyada ka sabse neecha point hai, aur yeh 1.2695 ke qareeb stable hai jab yeh analysis likha ja raha hai, kisi nai developments ka intezaar karte hue.

Jumay ko aane wale US jobs data ne US economy ke recession mein slip hone ka dar barhaya. Middle East mein tensions barhne ka bhi khauf hai. Reliable trading platforms ke mutabiq, British pound ne euro (GBP/EUR) ke against bhi 11-week low 1.1660 par further sharp losses record kiye, phir thoda recover kar ke 1.1690 tak pohncha, jab volatility mein izafa hua. Pound par Bank of England ke interest rate cut ne bhi thoda asar dala, lekin global risk conditions mein girawat is ka primary factor rahi. Jaise ke maloom hai, British currency ka risk trends se qareebi taaluq hai. Jab stock markets strong hoti hain aur carry trade mein zyada interest hota hai, pound acchi performance dikhata hai.Economic side par, Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ne dikhaya ke UK economy ka post-pandemic growth pehle se zyada strong tha jitna pehle socha gaya tha. ONS ke revised data ke mutabiq, UK economy Covid-19 pandemic se pehle se behtar halat mein ubhari. Nai estimates ke mutabiq 2022 ke liye annual GDP growth 4.8% hai, jo pehle 4.3% tha.ONS update jo Wednesday ko release hui, usme 2021 aur 2020 ke GDP growth estimates mein 0.1 percentage points ki choti revisions shamil hain, jab ke peechle saalon ke figures unchanged chode gaye hain. Overall, ye revisions economic activity ka zyada accurate representation reflect karti hain, jo ab full administrative aur survey data ka lehaaz rakhti hain jo ab available hai.

Daily chart ke mutabiq, GBP/USD ka bearish performance abhi tak intact hai aur agar 1.2600 ka support break hota hai to yeh confirm karega ke bears control mein hain aur deeper losses ki tayari kar rahe hain. Iske natije mein, technical indicators strong oversold levels ki taraf move kar rahe hain. Sterling Bank of England ke rate cut signals se pressure mein reh sakta hai agar investors ka risk aversion aise hi jaari rehta hai. Dusri taraf, isi time frame mein, downtrend ka pehla break 1.2885 ke resistance ki taraf hoga.

mein, global risk appetite mein kami ne British pound ko global markets mein nuksaan pohnchaya hai, jab ke yen ke short positions aggressively cover kiye gaye hain. Is se pehle, British pound carry trades se faida utha raha tha, jisme global investors yen ko bech kar high-yielding instruments mein long positions finance kar rahe the, jisme British pound bhi shamil hai. Haal hi mein, British pound against US dollar (GBP/USD) 1.2662 ke support level tak gir gaya, jo ek mahine se zyada ka sabse neecha point hai, aur yeh 1.2695 ke qareeb stable hai jab yeh analysis likha ja raha hai, kisi nai developments ka intezaar karte hue.

Jumay ko aane wale US jobs data ne US economy ke recession mein slip hone ka dar barhaya. Middle East mein tensions barhne ka bhi khauf hai. Reliable trading platforms ke mutabiq, British pound ne euro (GBP/EUR) ke against bhi 11-week low 1.1660 par further sharp losses record kiye, phir thoda recover kar ke 1.1690 tak pohncha, jab volatility mein izafa hua. Pound par Bank of England k


e interest rate cut ne bhi thoda asar dala, lekin global risk conditions mein girawat is ka primary factor rahi. Jaise ke maloom hai, British currency ka risk trends se qareebi taaluq hai. Jab stock markets strong hoti hain aur carry trade mein zyada interest hota hai, pound acchi performance dikhata hai.Economic side par, Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ne dikhaya ke UK economy ka post-pandemic growth pehle se zyada strong tha jitna pehle socha gaya tha. ONS ke revised data ke mutabiq, UK economy Covid-19 pandemic se pehle se behtar halat mein ubhari. Nai estimates ke mutabiq 2022 ke liye annual GDP growth 4.8% hai, jo pehle 4.3% tha.ONS update jo Wednesday ko release hui, usme 2021 aur 2020 ke GDP growth estimates mein 0.1 percentage points ki choti revisions shamil hain, jab ke peechle saalon ke figures unchanged chode gaye hain. Overall, ye revisions economic activity ka zyada accurate representation reflect karti hain, jo ab full administrative aur survey data ka lehaaz rakhti hain jo ab available hai.

Daily chart ke mutabiq, GBP/USD ka bearish performance abhi tak intact hai aur agar 1.2600 ka support break hota hai to yeh confirm karega ke bears control mein hain aur deeper losses ki tayari kar rahe hain. Iske natije mein, technical indicators strong oversold levels ki taraf move kar rahe hain. Sterling Bank of England ke rate cut signals se pressure mein reh sakta hai agar investors ka risk aversion aise hi jaari rehta hai. Dusri taraf, isi time frame mein, downtrend ka pehla break 1.2885 ke resistance ki taraf hoga.

British pound par hal hi mein kafi downward pressure aaya hai, jo ke disappointing UK retail sales data for June ki wajah se hai. GBP/EUR exchange rate 1.19 se neeche gir gaya hai aur GBP/USD 1.29 ke qareeb hai. Yeh girawat UK Office for National Statistics ki taraf se retail sales mein 1.2% ki kami report hone ke baad hui hai, jo ke May ke 2.9% increase se bohot mukhtalif hai. Retail sales mein yeh shiddat se girawat UK mein economic activity ke cooling ka ishara hai. Retail sales consumer spending aur overall economic health ka aik ahem indicator hain. Yeh unexpected downturn economic strength par sawaal uthata hai aur yeh consumer confidence mein kami ko bhi zahir karta hai, jo ke broader economic uncertainties ya kisi specific spending behavior ki wajah se ho sakti hai. GBP/USD ki girawat ko is negative economic signal par market reaction ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai. Traders aur investors apni positions ko economic data releases ki base par adjust karte hain. Weak retail sales ke natije mein UK ki economic outlook ka reassessment hota hai, jo pound ki selling ko badhava deta hai. Yeh pound ko euro aur dollar ke muqable mein weak karta hai, jo investor confidence mein kami aur future economic conditions ke shift expectations ko reflect karta hai.

Retail sales ki yeh kami UK economy ke mukhtalif challenges ke darmiyan aa rahi hai, jin mein shamil hain: Brexit ka ongoing effects aur uncertainties economic performance par asar andaz hain; inflationary pressures rising costs consumer spending aur business operations ko impact karte hain; aur global economic uncertainties jaise ke geopolitical tensions aur global market volatility is complexity mein izafa karti hain.

Pound ke strength regain karne ke liye mazeed robust economic data aur clear economic outlook ki zaroorat hai. Positive signals jaise ke: improvement in retail sales, increased consumer confidence aur favorable economic developments pound ko stabilize kar sakte hain.

Short term mein, traders upcoming economic releases aur central bank statements ko closely monitor karenge for further indications of UK's economic trajectory. Key events jin par nazar rakhni chahiye economic data releases, central bank statements aur global market sentiment hain.

British pound par recent downward pressure disappointing UK retail sales data aur broader economic challenges ko reflect karta hai. Pound ko stabilize aur apni current trend ko reverse karne ke liye strong economic data aur clear economic outlook ki zaroorat hai. Traders ko upcoming economic releases aur central bank statements ko closely monitor karna chahiye for further insights into UK's economic health aur potential currency movements

GBP/USD 1.29 ke qareeb hai. Yeh girawat UK Office for National Statistics ki taraf se retail sales mein 1.2% ki kami report hone ke baad hui hai, jo ke May ke 2.9% increase se bohot mukhtalif hai. Retail sales mein yeh shiddat se girawat UK mein economic activity ke cooling ka ishara hai. Retail sales consumer spending aur overall economic health ka aik ahem indicator hain. Yeh unexpected downturn economic strength par sawaal uthata hai aur yeh consumer confidence mein kami ko bhi zahir karta hai, jo ke broader economic uncertainties ya kisi specific spending behavior ki wajah se ho sakti hai.
GBP/USD ki girawat ko is negative economic signal par market reaction ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai. Traders aur investors apni positions ko economic data releases ki base par adjust karte hain. Weak retail sales ke natije mein UK ki economic outlook ka reassessment hota hai, jo pound ki selling ko badhava deta hai. Yeh pound ko euro aur dollar ke muqable mein weak karta hai, jo investor confidence mein kami aur future economic conditions ke shift expectations ko reflect karta hai.
Retail sales ki yeh kami UK economy ke mukhtalif challenges ke darmiyan aa rahi hai, jin mein shamil hain: Brexit ka ongoing effects aur uncertainties economic performance par asar andaz hain; inflationary pressures rising costs consumer spending aur business operations ko impact karte hain; aur global economic uncertainties jaise ke geopolitical tensions aur global market volatility is complexity mein izafa karti hain.
Pound ke strength regain karne ke liye mazeed robust economic data aur clear economic outlook ki zaroorat hai. Positive signals jaise ke: improvement in retail sales, increased consumer confidence aur favorable economic developments pound ko stabilize kar sakte hain.
Short term mein, traders upcoming economic releases aur central bank statements ko closely monitor karenge for further indications of UK's economic trajectory. Key events jin par nazar rakhni chahiye economic data releases, central bank statements aur global market sentiment hain.

**GBP/USD Market Analysis: Key Levels aur Indicators**

**Overview:**

Kal ke trading mein sellers ne GBP/USD pair par qaboo pa liya, aur local minimum 1.27063 ko successfully breach kar diya. Abhi market movement yeh indicate kar rahi hai ke is level ke neeche consolidation ki koshish ho rahi hai, jo agay aur declines ke liye rasta bana sakti hai. Agar yeh consolidation successful hoti hai, toh next target downtrend ke liye 1.26719 ka level hai. Agar price is point ke neeche break kar ke hold kar leti hai, toh market 1.26148 ki taraf move kar sakti hai.

Dusri taraf, filhal koi immediate bullish signal nahi hai. Buyers ko lower timeframes par reversal pattern establish karna padega taake ek potential upward movement initiate ho sake. Agar successful reversal aur 1.28026 ke upar breakout hota hai, toh aur gains ka rasta khul sakta hai, jisme 1.28394 ka level target ban sakta hai.

**GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis:**

1. **Price Action aur Bands:**
- 4-hour chart par, GBP/USD pair ne abhi hal hi mein Bollinger Bands ke central area tak retrace kiya hai jabke yeh lower band ke saath trend karne ki koshish kar raha tha. Ek clear bearish signal ke liye, traders ko fresh approach lower band ki taraf dekhni chahiye. Bands ka reaction—kya yeh outward khulte hain ya unchanged rehte hain—yeh future price movement ke baare mein insight provide karega.
- Fractal analysis ke mutabiq, price ne kal ke nazdeeki downward fractal ko break kiya, aur July 3 ke fractal se associated target level ko touch kiya. Ek naya downward fractal emerge hua hai, jo ongoing decline ke liye next target mark kar raha hai. Agar yeh fractal ke neeche breakout aur consolidation hoti hai, toh price July 2 ke fractal level ki taraf move kar sakti hai, jo ke 1.26148 par hai.

2. **AO Indicator:**
- Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ne negative zone mein increase dikhana shuru kiya hai. Halanki yeh unclear hai ke yeh increase kab peak karega, magar current trend yeh suggest karta hai ke bearish momentum continue ho sakta hai. Traders ko AO indicator par nazar rakhni chahiye taake downward trend ki strength ko gauge kar sakein.

**Conclusion:**

Summary mein, GBP/USD pair par filhal bearish influence hai, aur significant downward targets hain agar market apni current trajectory ko maintain karta hai. Traders ko lower fractal levels aur Bollinger Bands ke behavior par close attention deni chahiye potential entry points ke liye. Bullish scenarios ke liye, ek clear reversal pattern aur key resistance levels ke upar breakout zaroori hoga taake market sentiment shift ho sake. AO indicator par bhi nazar rakho, kyunke yeh prevailing bearish trend ki additional confirmation provide kar sakta hai.

US Dollar ne apni recovery ko roknay ke baad zyada tar bade peers ke muqablay mein peeche hat gaya hai. Greenback ne pehle ke faidaat ko choor diya jab dobara recession ke khauf ne sar uthaya.

US Dollar index 103.00 ke niche wapas trade kar raha hai jo ke technical rejection ka nishan hai.

US Dollar (USD) aksar major peers ke muqablay mein dheela pad gaya hai jis se Thursday ko bazar mein nasha dekha gaya. Bazar US Jobless Claims data ka intezar kar raha hai jo ke baad mein release hoga. Yeh wahi data point hai jisne pichle hafte mein volatility ka aam patthar banaya aur US Jobs reports ke pehle bade bechne ka silsila shuru kiya.

Economic data ke maamlay mein aaj kal koi khaas events nahi hain. Isliye is hafte ki trading kaafi pur-sukoon hai, aur is hafte ke Jobless Claims ka data zyada ahmiyat rakhta hai. Is liye, Thursday ko Jobless Claims data ke baad kaafi utar-chadhav ka samna karna pad sakta hai.

Pound Sterling (GBP) ke liye rukh niche ki taraf hai; kisi bhi girawat ke bawajood yeh 1.2645 se neeche nahi gir sakta. Nayi momentum ke madde nazar, risk ab bhi niche ki taraf hai; dekhnay wale levels hain 1.2645 aur 1.2610, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang aur Lee Sue Ann kehtay hain. Agli resistance 1.2720 par hai.

24-HOUR VIEW: “Do din pehle, GBP tez gir gaya. Kal humne kaha tha ke ‘jab ke girawat oversold hai, lekin ab tak stabilise nahi hui,’ aur humne yeh bhi kaha ke GBP 1.2645 tak gir sakta hai jab tak stabilisation ka intezar hai. Humne yeh bhi kaha ke resistance 1.2710 par hai; 1.2735 ke breach se yeh suggeste hoga ke GBP ki kamzori stabilize ho gayi hai.’ Hamara yeh nazariya sach nahi hua, kyunke GBP ne 1.2682 aur 1.2734 ke beech trade kiya, aur 1.2689 (-0.03%) par close kiya. Jab tak 1.2720 (minor resistance 1.2700 par hai) breach nahi hota, GBP niche ki taraf hi rahega. Lekin kisi bhi girawat ka 1.2645 se neeche jaane ke imkaan kam hain.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Humne GBP ke negative view ko lagbhag do haftay se rakha hua hai. Do din pehle GBP ke tez girawat ke baad, humne kal kaha tha ke ‘nayi momentum ke madde nazar, risk ab bhi niche ki taraf hai.’ Humne yeh bhi kaha ke ‘levels dekhne wale hain 1.2645 aur 1.2610.’ Humne yeh bhi kaha ke ‘aakhri level solid support hai (June ke low ke nazdeek).’ Hum wahi nazariya rakhain ge jab tak 1.2765 (‘strong resistance’ level 1.2780 kal ke nazdeek tha) breach nahi hota.”

GBP/USD/H1
Hello. Kal, buyers ne Pound par upar ki taraf kuch banane ki koshish ki, lekin trading ke end tak, price din ke shuruati values par wapas aa gayi, aur general downward trend ab bhi barqarar hai. Sellers ke liye sabse qareeb target 1.26719 ka level hai. Agar woh is level ko tod kar iske peeche consolidate kar lete hain, to hum 1.26148 tak girawat ki ummeed kar sakte hain. Buyers ko, lekin, 1.27351 ka level tod kar iske peeche consolidate karna hoga taake ek noticeable upward movement ban sake. Agar woh aaj yeh kar lete hain, to hum 1.28026 tak ke continued growth ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

1 - Pound ke 4-hour chart par, price central area mein hai aur tapes inward tuck hone lage hain. Yahan se movement kisi bhi direction mein continue ho sakti hai, aur price ke upar ya neeche jane ke behtar signal ke liye, upper ya lower band ke actively approach ka intezar karna chahiye, aur phir assess karna chahiye ke bands outward khulenge ya koi reaction nahi hoga. Agar hum fractals se current situation ko assess karein, to naye closer fractals upar aur neeche form hue hain. Agar nearest fractal ko neeche breakout milta hai, to price continue kar sakti hai girawat ko July 2 ke fractal tak, jo ke 1.26148 par hai. Agar nearest fractal ko upar breakout milta hai, to price August 6 ke fractal ki taraf ja sakti hai, jo ke 1.28026 par hai.

Aaj, pair ke conditions practically unchanged hain. Key role 1.2680 ka support bhi play kar sakta hai. Agar woh 1.2680 ka support tod dete hain, to pair downward impulse ko 1.2570 tak continue kar sakti hai. Yahan, zyadatar rollback shuru hoga aur phir se 1.2447 tak girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai, lekin is hafte tak yeh possible nahi hoga. Agar woh 1.2680 ke support ko tod kar consolidate nahi karte, to fir se 1.2750 ke resistance tak growth ho sakti hai, jahan ise todna zaroori hai taake 1.2860 tak ek aur impulse ban sake. Yeh growth 1.3065 ki taraf upward trend ko restore kar sakti hai, lekin is hafte aise growth ka bahut kam chance hai. Agar 1.2750 ke resistance ko aaj todne mein successful hote hain, to shayad 1.2860 tak breakthrough ho sakta hai, lekin is hafte 1.300 se upar count mat karein, maximum 1.2970 tak aur is resistance ke chances bhi zyada high nahi hain.