gbp/usd

**GBP/USD Pair Analysis**

Thursday ko GBP/USD pair ne khaas harkat dikhayi, 1.2947 ke aas-paas rally kiya, jab ke central bank ki inflation ko effectively manage karne ki ability ke hawale se ongoing concerns thi. Yeh ustaad tab hui jab US economic data American trading ke dauran expected se kam aayi, jo aam taur par US Dollar ki demand ko barhawa deti hai aur currencies jaise Sterling ko pressure mein rakhati hai.

**BoE ka Interest Rate Faisla aur Economic Outlook:**

BoE ne interest rates ko 5.25% par barqarar rakha ek widely anticipated 7-2 vote ke split ke sath. Jab ke headline inflation bank ke 2% target par wapas aa gayi hai teen saal ke dauran, services sector mein high price pressures ne policymakers ko cautious stance apnane par majboor kiya. Market expectations ab August se potential rate cuts ki taraf lean kar rahi hain, jo ke parliamentary elections ke aage economic uncertainties se influenced hain.

**Political Landscape aur Market Sentiment:**

Election se pehle ke polls jo Labour Party ko Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ki Conservative Party ke muqablay mein significant lead dikha rahe hain, ne market sentiment ko ek political dimension de diya hai. Yeh political uncertainty ka backdrop Pound ki valuation ko further sway kar sakta hai jab investors potential policy shifts aur unke economic stability par asraat ka andaza lagate hain.

**Technical Analysis aur GBP/USD ki Performance:**

GBP/USD ne briefly 1.2900 mark ko paar kiya, lekin baad mein 1.2780 ke aas-paas recent lows ki taraf retrace ho gaya. Technical indicators bearish bias ko suggest karte hain, jo ke 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2610 ke upar sustain karne mein failure se highlighted hai. Agar substantial buying pressure current trend ko reverse nahi karta to continued downward momentum ka shayad samna ho.

Daily candlestick patterns ka analysis dikhata hai ke supply zone se 1.2900 ke upar bearish rejection hui hai, jo ke 20-day EMA at 1.2748 ke potential retests ki taraf ishara karti hai. 50-day EMA at 1.2701 critical support offer karti hai, lekin iska weakening further declines ke liye vulnerability ko suggest karta hai. Agar bearish pressures barqarar rahe, to GBP/USD 2024 ke lows ke aas-paas 1.2300 level ko revisit kar sakta hai, jo ke currency pair ki market dynamics ke liye sensitivity ko highlight karta hai.

**GBP/USD Currency Pair Analysis**

Aaj GBP/USD currency pair ne trading week ki shuruat se hi strong upward momentum dikhaya. Yeh surge naye mahine ke shuru hone ke sath coincide hui, jo aksar market activity aur traders ke strategic positioning ko barhawa deti hai. EUR/USD pair mein bhi aise hi bullish behavior dekha gaya, jo ke shayad France ke aanewale elections aur UK mein elections ki baaton ke asraat se ho sakta hai.

Raat ke dauran, price action ne horizontal resistance level 1.2650 ko decisively break kiya, jo ke thirty-minute chart par clearly visible tha. Yeh breakout ek tezi se upar chadhai ka sabab bana, jo 1.2661 par support dhundta nazar aaya, ek level jo pehle resistance ke taur par kaam karta tha. Upar ki taraf movement ne ek descending trend line ko bhi breach kiya, jo ke pehle ke wave peaks se bani thi, jo ke market sentiment mein significant bullish shift ko indicate karta hai.

In bullish signals ke bawajood, main long position lene mein cautious hoon. Broader four-hour trend ab bhi downward trajectory dikhata hai, jo ke clear wave structure ke sath downward movements ko favor karta hai aur MACD indicator ka sustained presence lower selling zone mein hai. Ye factors yeh suggest karte hain ke current upward movement buyers ko lure kar rahi hai, jisse wo positions prematurely enter kar sakte hain.

Meri analysis ke mutabiq, main anticipate kar raha hoon ke jab price phir se 1.2661 level ko test karegi to potential reversal ho sakti hai. Agar yeh level convincingly support ke taur par hold nahi karta, to yeh ek downward move trigger kar sakta hai, jo lower support levels ko retest karne ya higher timeframes par prevailing downtrend resume karne ke liye ho sakta hai.

In conclusion, jabke immediate price action GBP/USD mein bullish nazar aati hai aur key resistance levels ko breach kiya gaya hai, overall market context, including four-hour downtrend aur technical indicators, caution advise karte hain. Main zyada confirmation ya clearer signal of sustained bullish strength ka intezar karunga pehle long positions ko consider karne se. Yeh approach premature trade entries se risk ko mitigate karne ke liye hai, jo ke ek transient upward movement ho sakti hai.

**Aaj ke Trading Session ka Jaiza: GBP/USD**

Aaj ke bustling trading session mein, GBP/USD pair ne UK aur aane wale US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity surveys ke data releases ke darmiyan resilience dikhayi. Bank of England (BoE) ne 5.25% par rates ko barqarar rakha, jo ke kuch logon ke liye rate cuts ke khilaf steadfast stance ke sath surprising tha, jisne broader market expectations ko kuch had tak dampen kar diya.

**GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:**

Is hafte BoE ka rates ko steady rakhne ka faisla aik had tak expected tha, lekin services inflation par focus aur inflation management strategy ki ambiguity ne Sterling ko kuch had tak adrift chhod diya. Central bank ne restrictive policies ko barqarar rakhne ka commitment zahir kiya, aur UK labor market ki historical tightness ko decision-making process mein factor ke taur par cite kiya.

Aage dekhte hue, market participants US PMI data ke pair dynamics par hone wale asraat ka intezar kar rahe hain, jabke economic indicators investor sentiment aur trading strategies ko shape kar rahe hain. UK economic health aur global market conditions ke darmiyan interplay currency pair ki sensitivity ko external economic factors ke liye emphasize karta hai.

**Four-Hour Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Thursday ke trading ke doran, pair ne DXY ke strong hone ke khilaf lagbhag ek third percent ki kami dikhayi. Currency pair filhal neutral se upward bias mein hai, aur critical technical levels par focus hai. 100-day moving average (DMA) ke near 1.2748 ke paas pohanchne ke baad, agar yeh level breach hota hai to downtrend pressures barh sakte hain, jo 50-DMA at 1.2767 aur lower supports around 1.2600 aur 200-DMA at 1.2730 ko challenge kar sakte hain.

Pair ne recently ek rising channel ke lower trendline ko break kiya, jo ke short-term trends mein uncertainty ko signal karta hai. Pair ka trajectory pivotal resistance levels par depend karta hai: agar 1.2940 ke upar move hota hai, to yeh highs ke retest ke liye raasta bana sakta hai, jo 1.2947 ke aas-paas hain, aur potentially 1.2945 mark ko target kar sakta hai.

**Thursday Ka Trading Session: GBP/USD ka Jaiza**

Thursday ko, GBP/USD pair ne DXY ke khilaf ek significant setback ka samna kiya, aur Bank of England (BoE) ke pivotal policy meeting ke baad 1.2940 par trade kiya. Yeh event ne globally currency pairs par apna asar dikhaya, aur trading strategies ko evolving economic landscapes ke madde nazar shape kiya.

**Retail Sales aur Economic Indicators:**

Retail Sales, jo ke consumer spending patterns ko reflect karte hain, economic growth par khaas asar daalti hain. BoE ke higher interest rates ko barqarar rakhne ke bawajood, retail sales ne remarkable resilience dikhayi. Yeh robust consumer demand ko suggest karta hai lekin yeh bhi inflation ke barhne ki nishani hai, jo BoE ke liye price stability ke maqsad ko mushkil bana sakta hai.

**US Economic Factors aur GBP ka Response:**

United States mein hone wale developments bhi GBP/USD trading dynamics ko affect kar rahe hain. Recent data jo US inflation mein decline aur May ke Retail Sales figures ko dikhata hai, ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke expectations ko barhawa diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, September se rate reductions ke 64% likelihood hai, jo global currency markets mein uncertainty ka backdrop create karta hai.

**Technical Analysis aur Market Outlook:**

Pair ne trading session ke dauran fluctuations dekhe. Halanki briefly 1.2900 mark ke upar chala gaya, currency pair struggle karta raha aur aakhir mein 1.2777 ke near-term lows ke taraf wapas chala gaya. Technical indicators, including 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke 1.2713 par breach, bearish trend continuation ko signal karte hain jab tak koi strong bullish reversal nahi hota.

**Daily candle charts** bearish rejection ko dikhate hain 1.2940 ke upar supply zone se, jo further declines ke expectations ko reinforce karta hai. 50-day EMA, jo filhal 1.25784 par hai, critical support level ke taur par dekhna zaroori hai agar selling pressure barh jata hai. Iske saath, 20-day EMA se support ki kamzor hoti hui level 1.2837 GBP/USD ko extended bearish movements ke liye vulnerable banati hai, jo 2024 ke early lows ke aas-paas 1.2300 tak test kar sakta hai.

Pound dabo me hai jab ke Bank of England ki Monetary Policy Committee ne narrow majority se bank interest rates ko 5.25% se 5.0% tak cut kar diya. Trading ke mutabiq, pound ne is move ko anticipate kar liya tha, aur decision ka initial reaction kuch muted lag raha hai, jiske natije me London ke morning session me significant losses record hui hain. Pound ke losses against the US dollar (GBP/USD) 1.2713 support level tak extended ho gaye, jo ke aik mahine se zyada ka lowest level hai.

Haqeeqat me, decision ke baare me kuch shak tha kyun ke kuch mortgage lenders ne announcement se pehle interest rates cut kar diye. Ye bhi ho sakta hai ke pound pe significant pressure tha midday announcement se pehle. Performance aur reasons ke baare me comment karte hue, Corbyn ke senior market analyst Karl Schamuta ne kaha, "Pound major currency board me sabse bara mover hai, down by around half a percentage point after the Bank of England launched its long-awaited easing cycle."

Bank ne kaha ke cut justified hai kyun ke "inflationary pressures itni kam ho gayi hain ke humne aaj rates cut kar di."

Sterling ke liye key question ye hai ke bank kab follow up karega aik aur rate hike ke saath aur kitna committed hai aane wale mahino me rates deliver karne ke liye. Is move ke baad, money markets end of year tak aur 35bp cut price kar rahe hain. Ye aik aur quarter percentage point ho ga jo Bank Rate cut ko 4.75% tak le aaye ga. Media se baat karte hue, BoE Governor Bailey ne kaha, "Hume high inflation ke period ko firmly peeche chorhna hai... Hume rate ko zyada ya jaldi cut karne me ehtiyat se kaam lena ho ga."

Overall, interest rate policy ke outlook ke baare me guidance sterling ki price action ko determine karne me key factor ho ga aane wale hafton me. Ahem baat ye hai ke Bank ke naye forecasts rapid pace of rate cuts ke call nahi karte. BoE expect karta hai ke inflation aane wale mahino me barh jayega, year end tak 2.75% tak pohanch jayega, magar phir 2026 tak 2.0% se neeche a jayega.

Rising inflation trajectory ye bhi batati hai ke kuch MPC members believe karte hain ke rates cut karna abhi jaldi hai. Ye bhi suggest karta hai ke Bank rate ko bohot jaldi ya zyada cut karne ke liye jaldi me nahi hai.

Technical Analysis for Forex GBP/USD
Pound dabao mein hai jab ke Bank of England ki Monetary Policy Committee ne mushkil se majority se bank interest rates ko 5.25% se 5.0% karne ka faisla kiya. Trading ke mutabiq, pound ne lagta hai ke is harkat ka pehle se hi andaza laga liya tha, faislay par pehli reakshan kuch zyada nahi thi, aur London ke subah ke session mein kafi nuqsan dekhe gaye. Pound ka US dollar ke muqable mein (GBP/USD) nuqsan 1.2713 support level tak barh gaya, jo ke aik maheene se zyada ka lowest level hai
Darasal, kuch shakk tha is faislay par kyunki kuch mortgage lenders ne announcement se pehle hi interest rates ko kam kar diya tha. Yeh samjha ja sakta hai ke pound par isliye bhi zyada dabao tha. Karl Schamuta, senior market analyst at Corbyn, ne performance aur reasons par comment karte hue kaha: "Pound major currency board mein sab se zyada harkat mein hai, kareeb aadha percentage point down hai Bank of England ke long-awaited easing cycle shuru karne ke baad.
Bank ne kaha ke cut justified tha kyunki "inflationary pressures kam ho gayi hain ke hum aaj rates cut kar sakein.
Sterling ke liye, aik ahem sawal yeh hai ke bank agla rate hike kab karega aur kitna committed hai aanay wale mahinon mein rates ko deliver karne mein. Is harkat ke baad, money markets ek aur 35bp cut ko year ke end tak price kar rahe hain. Yeh ek aur quarter percentage point ka cut hoga Bank Rate ko 4.75% par laker. Media se baat karte hue, BoE Governor Bailey ne kaha: "Humein high inflation ke period ko peeche chor dena chahiye... Humein ehtiyaat se rates ko zyada ya tez cut nahi karna chahiye.
Kul mila kar, interest rate policy ke outlook par guidance sterling ke price action ko aane wale hafton mein tay karega. Ahem baat yeh hai ke Bank ke naye forecasts tez rate cuts ke liye nahi keh rahe hain. BoE expects karta hai ke inflation agle mahinon mein barhegi, year ke end tak 2.75% tak pohonch jaye gi, lekin phir 2026 tak 2.0% se neeche aa jaye gi
Rising inflation trajectory yeh samjhati hai ke kuch MPC members ko lagta hai ke rates cut karna abhi jaldi hai. Yeh bhi suggest karta hai ke Bank zyada ya jaldi rates cut karne mein jaldi nahi karega
Bank ne apni full-year GDP growth estimate bhi 2024 ke liye 1.25% badha kar 0.5% se ki hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ke economy ko aur cuts ki zarurat nahi hai. Aisi forecast sterling ko aage ja kar support de sakti hai. Lekin sterling Thursday ke faislay se pehle large “long” position mein tha, matlab cut ki surat mein un positions ko lose karne ka risk tha

**GBP/USD Pair Ka Jaiza:**

Pair ne significant volatility ka samna kiya, khaaskar North American session ke doran, jahan yeh critical 1.2900 mark se niche chala gaya US Dollar ke khilaf. Yeh movement Bank of England (BoE) ke faisle ke baad hua, jo unho ne apni interest rates ko barqarar rakha, lekin aage ke mahino mein rate cut ke clear indications diye. Is wajah se, pair ab 1.2911 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.39% ka modest increase dikhata hai.

**Diverging Paths: BoE Rate Cut ka Hint, Fed Ka Cautious Approach**

Rate cut ki umeed us waqt barhi jab BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ne inflation ke 2% level par wapas aane ke liye optimism dikhaya. Yeh development Pound ke liye shadow cast karti hai jab markets UK election ke qareeb potential policy shifts ka samna kar rahi hain. Dusri taraf, US Dollar apne recent gains ko capitalize karne mein struggle kar raha hai, jabke Federal Reserve ke rate cuts ke expectations September se shuru hone ki umeed hai.

Federal Reserve policymakers ne yeh signal diya hai ke agar inflation agar sustained signs of decline dikhati hai to interest rates ko kam karne ke liye tayar hain. Fed ka yeh cautious approach BoE ke current stance ke contrast mein hai, jo GBP/USD dynamics ko complex bana raha hai.

**H1 Chart Technical Breakdown aur Support Levels: Short-Term Trends ka Jaiza**

Technical taur par, pair ne apne recent trading channel se significant breakdown dikhaya hai, jo short-term trend ke shift ka indication hai. Lekin, breakout ke baad substantial downward momentum ki kami traders ko bearish bias assume karne se pehle caution adopt karne ke liye kehti hai. Khaaskar, 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) jo 1.2816 ke aas-paas hai, ek potential support level ko indicate karta hai jo previous upward bias ko wapas dekh sakta hai, aur 1.3000 ke aas-paas target kar sakta hai.

**GBP/USD Ki Recent Gains aur Future Outlook**

**Mojooda Market Conditions:**
GBP/USD pair ki recent gains resistance level 1.2845 par ruk gayi hain. Ab yeh pair 1.2785 ke aas-paas wapas aaya hai, jo bullish momentum ke kam hone ka ishara hai. Yeh tabdeeli broader market dynamics ko reflect karti hai jo ke political aur economic factors se influenced hai.

**Political Influences:**
UK general election ka positive outcome GBP/USD ko initial support mila, jisse ek nayi political era shuru hui. Traders Labour Party ke election promises aur local economy ke support par optimistic hain. Lekin, yeh political stability BoE par interest rates ko cut karne ka pressure bhi barha sakti hai, khas kar agar economic outlook uncertain raha.

**Economic Factors aur BoE Policy:**
- **BoE Rate Cut Expectations:** Agar BoE August mein rates cut karti hai, jaise kuch log expect kar rahe hain, to GBP/USD apne recent highs se aur neeche ja sakta hai. Yeh potential rate cut Bank ke economy ko support karne ki zarurat ke wajah se ho sakta hai, khaaskar global uncertainties ke madde nazar.
- **Fed Policy aur US Economic Data:** Federal Reserve ka stance bhi important hai. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ke Senate aur Congress ko diye gaye speeches aur US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data Fed ke policy direction ko samajhne mein madad karegi.

**Key Influences on Future Movements:**
- **US Consumer Price Index:** CPI data pivotal hogi. Agar CPI figures strong aati hain, to rate cut expectations kam ho sakti hain, jo US dollar ko strong karegi aur GBP/USD ko niche le ja sakti hai. Wahi, agar inflation data weak hota hai, to Fed rate cut ki expectations barh sakti hain, jo dollar ko bearish karega aur GBP/USD ko support milega.
- **BoE Rate Decision:** August mein BoE ka decision critical hoga. Rate cut se pound ko nuksan ho sakta hai, jabke current rates ko maintain karne se kuch support mil sakta hai.

**Trading Strategy:**
Mojooda situation ko dekhte hue, traders ko yeh strategy consider karni chahiye:
- **Monitor Key Levels:** Resistance at 1.2845 aur current support around 1.2785 ko closely monitor karein.
- **Economic Calendar:** Upcoming economic data releases, khaaskar US CPI aur Powell ke speeches par nazar rakhein. Yeh events rate cut expectations ke direction ko clear karengi.
- **Risk Management:** Risk ko effectively manage karne ke liye stop-loss orders ka istemal karein. Agar pair 1.2785 se niche chala jata hai, to yeh further declines ka signal ho sakta hai, jo cautious approach ki zarurat banati hai.

**Conclusion:**
GBP/USD pair ek critical juncture par hai, jo UK ke political developments aur US se economic data se influenced hai. Jabke UK ki political stability ne pound ko initially support diya, potential BoE rate cut downside risks ko barha sakta hai. Dusri taraf, US economic data, khaaskar CPI figures, dollar ke strength par significant impact dalegi. Traders ko in developments ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur apni strategies accordingly adjust karni chahiye, potential opportunities aur prudent risk management ko balance karte hue.

Mangal ke din, GBP/USD currency pair ne ek wazeh bearish trend dikhaya jab sellers ne market par hukumat ki. Price ne ahem resistance zone 1.2865 aur 1.2863 ke darmiyan gir gayi, jo ke ek ahem level tha jo buying pressure ko effectively limit karta tha. Is resistance ne sellers ko control barqarar rakhne diya aur price ko neeche dhakela. Chahay girawat ziada na thi, lekin trading din ke doran bearish control wazeh tha Bollinger Bands ka istemal karte hue Daily timeframe pe market ka jaiza lene se lagataar bearish sentiment nazar aata hai. Price consistent tor par Middle Bollinger Band ke neeche rahi, jo 1.2877 aur 1.2875 ke darmiyan hai. Ye indicator sellers ki hukumat ko highlight karta hai aur yeh suggest karta hai ke GBP/USD pair ka agla significant target Lower Bollinger Band area ho sakta hai, jo ke 1.2745 aur 1.2743 ke darmiyan hai
Budh ke din Asian trading session mein, buyers ne apna asar dikhana shuru kiya. Unho ne dynamic support zone 1.2825 aur 1.2852 ke darmiyan ko kamiyabi se defend kiya, jis se bullish rebound hua. Buyers ke liye foran ka objective seller ke resistance zone 1.2860 aur 1.2862 ke darmiyan ko challenge karna hai. Agar price is resistance ko breach kar sakti hai, to yeh agle supply resistance area jo 1.2905 aur 1.2907 ke darmiyan hai, ki taraf barh sakti hai. Warna, agar resistance mazboot rahi, to price dobara apni bearish trajectory resume kar sakti hai, mumkin hai ke demand support area jo 1.2775 aur 1.2773 ke darmiyan hai, ko target kare
Trading Strategy aur Recommendations
Jo traders market entry ka soch rahe hain, un ke liye ek potential sell position contemplate ki ja sakti hai agar price sab se qareebi buyer support zone 1.2817-1.2815 ke niche girti hai. Aise position ke liye target profit (TP) range 1.2775-1.2773 me set kiya ja sakta hai. Dosri taraf, ek buy entry tab munasib ho sakti hai agar price sab se qareebi seller resistance area 1.2860-1.2862 ko paar karti hai, TP target 1.2905-1.2907 par aimed ke sath. In critical levels ko monitor karna GBP/USD market mein informed trading decisions lene ke liye zaroori hoga
Resistance aur support zones ke darmiyan ke interplay ko samajhna, aur saath hi Bollinger Bands ke signals ko dekhna, traders ko potential market movements aur opportunities ka wazeh tasavvur dega

Pound Sterling ne haal hi mein qabil-e-zikar mazbooti dekhi hai, jo UK se positive economic data aur US se softened inflation figures ke bawajood hai. May 2024 mein, UK economy 0.4% se barh gayi, jo ke pehle se predicted 0.2% se zyada hai. Yeh growth mukhtalif sectors ke significant expansions ki wajah se hui hai:

**Professional, Scientific, aur Technical Activities:** Is area mein 1.0% ki izafa dekha gaya, jisme scientific research aur development 3.5% se barh gayi aur architectural aur engineering activities 2.2% se barh gayi.

**Accommodation aur Food Services:** Is sector ne 2.4% ki growth dekhi, accommodation services 4.6% se barh gayi aur food services 1.5% se barh gayi.

**Consumer-Facing Services:** Yeh services 0.8% se barh gayi, jisme retail trade 2.9% se aur accommodation industry 4.6% se barh gayi. Yeh strong performance UK economy ki recovery ko signal karti hai, jo ke pichle kuch saalon se kai challenges ka saamna kar rahi thi.

**US Inflation Data:**
Dusri taraf, US mein June 2024 mein inflation ka slowdown dekha gaya. Headline aur core inflation rates dono kam hui hain, jo ke speculations ko janam deti hain ke Federal Reserve shayad interest rates ko barhane mein cautious approach apnaaye. Isse US Dollar kam attractive bana hai, jo ke Pound Sterling ki performance ko further boost kar raha hai.

**Pound Sterling par Asar:**
UK ki faster-than-expected economic growth aur US ki softer inflation data ke combination ne Pound Sterling ki value ko barhawa diya hai. Investors UK ki economic outlook par confidence gain kar rahe hain, jabke Federal Reserve ke kam aggressive interest rate hikes ka potential Dollar ko kamzor kar raha hai, jo ke Pound ko support de raha hai.

**Market Reactions:**
Currency markets in developments par positive react kar rahe hain. Pound Sterling ne appreciation dekha hai, jo UK ki economic resilience aur Pound ke relative appeal ko reflect karta hai.

Recent performance of Pound Sterling economic indicators ke currency markets par significant impact ko highlight karti hai. UK ka stronger-than-expected GDP growth aur US ka softer inflation figures ne Pound ke liye favorable conditions create ki hain, jo global financial markets ki dynamic nature ko illustrate karti hai.

Kal GBP/USD ke sellers ko south ki taraf corrective move achieve karne mein nakami mili, aur iske natije mein ek chhoti si pullback ke baad ek reversal aayi, jiski wajah se price ko north ki taraf confident bullish impulse se push kiya gaya. Is bullish impulse ke natije mein ek full-fledged bullish candle ban gayi, jo aasan se previous day's range ke maximum se upar merge ho gayi aur upward accumulation ko chhod diya. Aaj, buyers ne sabse nazdeek resistance level ko touch kiya, jo meri markings ke mutabiq 1.28604 par hai. Iss case mein, current layout ko dekhte hue, main designated resistance level aur 1.28938 par resistance level ko side se dekhunga.

Jaise ke maine kaha, in resistance levels ke paas do scenarios develop ho sakte hain. Pehla scenario yeh hai ke price in levels ke upar consolidate kare aur further upar move kare. Agar yeh plan execute hota hai, to main expect karta hoon ke price 1.29956 ke resistance level tak move kare. Jab price is resistance level ke upar merge karegi, tab further north movement ki ummeed rahegi, jo 1.31424 ke resistance level tak jaa sakti hai. Is resistance level ke paas trading setup banane ka wait kiya jayega, jo future trading direction ko determine karne mein madad karega.

Price ke designated distant northern target ki taraf move karte waqt, southern rollbacks bhi form ho sakte hain. Main in rollbacks ka use karunga bullish signals dekhne ke liye nazdeek support level se, ummeed karte hue ke growth resume ho sakti hai aur global bullish trend ban sakta hai.

Dusra option yeh hai ke price resistance level 1.28604 ya 1.28938 ko test karne par reversal candle banaye aur downward price action resume kare. Agar yeh plan implement hota hai, to main price ko 1.27399 ke support level tak wapas aane ka wait karunga. Is support level ke paas bhi bullish signals dekhunga aur ummeed karunga ke price upward movement resume karegi.

Zahir hai, ek door southern target develop bhi ho sakta hai, lekin maine abhi tak is par focus nahi kiya hai, kyun ke iska jaldi implementation dekhne ko nahi mil raha. Aaj, mujhe kuch interesting nazar nahi aa raha, lekin agar buyers nazdeek ke resistance level ke upar consolidate karte hain, to wo door ke northern targets ki taraf dekhna shuru karenge.

GBP/USD ke halat ko dekha jaye to yeh lag raha hai ke pair downtrend banane ke ache nishan dikha raha hai, lekin iska matlab yeh nahi ke yeh pair upward trend nahi bana sakta. Pichle kuch hafton se yeh pair sideways movement dikha raha hai aur pehli significant support area 1.2605-1.2633 ko todne mein nakam raha hai. British currency ab dobara majbooti dikhate hue nazar aa rahi hai aur overall achi aur kabhi kabhi bekaar ki movements dikha rahi hai.

Aaj, haftay ke aakhri trading din par, hum GBP/USD currency pair ko H4 chart par dekhain ge. Wednesday ki trading mein, is currency pair ne strong upward movement dikhayi aur technical outlook bhi bullish tha. Pooray din, news ne pound ki value ko barhane mein madad ki, jab ke US indicators kamzor ho gaye, jo is din ki value increase ka sabab bana. Lekin, US dollar sirf pound ke khilaf nahi, balki dusri currencies ke khilaf bhi kamzor hua. Wave system upward formation mein organize hone lag gaya, MACD indicator buy zone mein upward move kar raha hai aur apne signal line ke upar hai. Aaj ke quick start ke baad, rollback extend hota gaya, jab tak yeh nearest support level 1.2732 tak nahi pohanch gaya. Aur dheere dheere price ne is rollback ko digest kiya aur aaj tak continue kiya.

Agar pehli waves ko Fibonacci grid par target kiya jaye, to yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke price ne increase ke dauran minimum target ko puri tarah se achieve kar liya hai—yani yeh level 161.8 tak pohanch gaya hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke yeh increase grid ke level 200 tak form ho, lekin yeh puri tarah se nahi keh sakte ke hum is series ko cross karenge. CCI indicator daily period par upper zone se move karne ka signal de raha hai, jo correction kehlata hai. Yeh aam hai ke level 1.2700 tak girne ka, phir hum buy karne ke bare mein soch sakte hain ya nahi. Aaj 15:30 Moscow time par, US ke liye mukhtalif important news release ho rahi hain: Average hourly earnings, Non-agricultural employment change, Economically active population share, Private non-agricultural employment change, aur Unemployment rate. 18:00 par, US Federal Reserve System ka monetary policy report bhi release hoga.

Is haftay mein, GBP/USD ne start par chhoti gap dekha, jo prices ke continue hone se jaldi close ho gaya. Pichle haftay mein, is currency pair mein strong upward movement dekhi gayi, jo technical indicators aur market inertia se support hui. Wave structure upward progression dikha raha hai, MACD bullish phase mein apni signal line ke upar hai. US dollar broadly pound aur dusri market currencies ke khilaf kamzor hua. Daily chart analysis se yeh dekha jata hai ke kal ki price pehle peaks se banayi gayi gentle descending line ke nazdeek pohanch gayi, jahan profit-taking ne temporary pullback cause kiya. Kal ki candle hammer reversal pattern ke sath close hui, jo further decline ka signal deti hai. CCI indicator H4 time frame par overheating aur bearish divergence suggest kar raha hai. Lekin, GBP/USD ki volatile nature ko dekhte hue, breakout above yesterday’s high ka possibility bhi ho sakta hai, agar significant news is move ko justify kare, aaj ke highlight Fed Chair Powell ka speech hai. In sab factors ko dekhte hue, main decline ki ummeed rakhta hoon, lekin current price action abhi bhi indecisive hai.

**GBP/USD H-1**

Abhi GBP/USD pair chart ke upper half mein northward correction dikhata hai, aur current price 1.28586 par hai. Instaforex company indicator ke pehle part mein bulls aur bears ke darmiyan gap barabar nazar aa raha hai, jahan bears ka percentage 50.03% hai. Indicator ke doosre part mein northward trend dikhaya gaya hai. Aaj yeh pair humein kya surprises dega? UK se important aur interesting news mein GDP aur trade balance hain. United States se core CPI, CPI, initial jobless claims aur inflation bhi important hain. Isliye, fundamental analysis zaroori hai. Saath hi, technical analysis bhi karna hoga. Mera khayal hai ke shuru mein pair southward correction karega aur 1.2780 level tak aayega, phir uske baad northward move karte hue 1.2920 level tak pahunchega. Happy hunting sabko!

**GBP/USD D-1**

Daily chart se yeh clear hai ke price strong resistance 1.2890 ke nazdeek pahunch rahi hai. Neeche se is par support trend line se cap hai aur bottom par Stochastic Oscillator downward turn hua hai, jabke price abhi bhi barh rahi hai. Yeh indicate kar raha hai ke reversal bohot nazdeek hai aur price 1.2890 se bounce kar ke support trend line ki taraf neeche move kar sakti hai.

Halaanki, resistance ke upar break aur 1.31 area ki taraf move ki possibility ko bhi nazarandaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Yeh option kuch waqt se long-term target ke roop mein dekha gaya hai, lekin yeh clear nahi ke price kab is direction mein move karegi. Agar ab breakout hota hai, to zyada tar yeh 1.31 tak move karega.

Yahan, mujhe lagta hai ke sales ab itni important nahi hain aur buyers ban jana chahiye.

GBP/USD pair ne pichle chaar hafton mein pressure ka samna kiya hai, jiska nateeja yeh hua ke price 1.2600 ke upar chhati haftay ki low par aa gayi hai. Is downward trajectory par asar daal rahe hain agle events jaise ke UK general elections 4 July ko aur US Nonfarm Payrolls data 5 July ko, jo currency pair ko naye directional cues provide karenge.

Technically, Pound Sterling ne do haftay pehle aik aham rising trendline support ko break kiya, jo sustained bearish momentum ko signal karta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) abhi 50 se neeche hai, khas taur par 42 ke aas-paas, jo further downside ka potential dikhata hai. Is ke ilawa, GBP/USD ne 1.2645 ke critical support level ko breach kiya, jo 50-day aur 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) ka confluence hai, jo market mein bearish sentiment ko highlight karta hai.

Halaanki, ek recent bullish signal tab mila jab 50-day SMA ne 100-day SMA ko cross kiya, jo traders ke liye cautious stance ka indication hai. Downtrend ke continuation ko confirm karne ke liye, May 15 ki low 1.2584 ke neeche decisively break karna zaroori hai. Agar yeh hota hai, to 200-day SMA jo 1.2564 par hai, agla significant support level banega, jo further decline ko 9 May ki low 1.2446 tak le ja sakta hai.

Dusri taraf, agar buyers reversal scenario ki talash mein hain, to weekly close ka 1.2645 par hona zaroori hai jo key confluence resistance-turned-support hai. Yeh 21-day SMA jo 1.2715 par hai, ko test karne ke liye raasta bana sakta hai. Agar bullish momentum barqarar rehta hai, to static resistance level 1.2800 ko challenge kiya ja sakta hai, aur further gains ke liye March 8 ki high 1.2894 tak bhi movement ho sakti hai.

Hum GBP/USD currency exchange rate ka real-time evaluation kar rahe hain. 4-hour chart par GBP/USD pair ka current outlook abhi bhi unclear hai. Halankeh hum ne downward correction ki ummeed ki thi, magar hum ne dekha ke pair ne pichle sales zone ya resistance area ke lower boundary se phir se test kiya hai. Is ke ilawa, bullish gains ki possibility abhi bhi mojood hai. Ideally, is monthly resistance zone se rebound hona chahiye. Pavlik ke statement ke mutabiq, bearish trend jald shuru ho sakta hai, chahe bullish gain ki ummeed rahe. Lekin yeh sirf meri raaye hai. Hourly chart par pound-dollar pair ko Federal Reserve aur Bank of England ke speeches ke baad significant activity dekhne ko mili hai. Price outlook bullish hai.

Pair ne 1.26072 ke support level tak gira aur 1.26801 se 1.26072 ke range mein trading shuru ki. Theoretically, pair ko apne decline ko continue karna chahiye tha, lekin yeh wapas utha, shayad pre-election volatility ke wajah se. Upcoming elections ka impact uncertain hai, aur inflation abhi bhi primary focus hai. Agar inflation further decline ya growth nahi dikhata, to pair is range se shift hone ki umeed nahi hai. Yeh filhal apne peechle highs ke paas trading kar raha hai, jo thoda ajeeb hai.

Euro-dollar pair ko modest upward movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Current analysis ke mutabiq, pair apne current range ke upper limit tak pahunch sakta hai, jo mild rise ko indicate karta hai. Lekin, pound ki elevated trading position ko dekhte hue, ek choti si correction ki umeed hai, is ke baad pair eventually support level 1.26113 par settle ho sakta hai.