gbp/usd

اکتوبر 15 2024 کے لیے برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

پاؤنڈ کے الٹ جانے کی صلاحیت کمزور ہو رہی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر، ایک اہم اشارے کی حیثیت سے، سنگین الٹ جانے کے کوئی آثار نہیں دکھاتا ہے۔ 1.3141 یا اس سے قدرے اوپر کی معمولی اصلاح، ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن تک پہنچنا، بڑے اتپریرک کے بغیر بھی ممکن ہے۔ اگر قیمت 1.3080 سے اوپر ٹوٹ جاتی ہے تو 1.3141 کے ہدف کی سطح کو کھلا سمجھا جا سکتا ہے۔



دو دنوں میں، ای سی بی ایک میٹنگ کرے گا جہاں شرح میں 0.25 فیصد کمی کی توقع ہے۔ غیر ڈالر کی کرنسیوں کی مجموعی طور پر افسردہ حالت کو دیکھتے ہوئے، قیمت چینل کی نچلی حد کی طرف، 1.2905 کے نشان کے ارد گرد پاؤنڈ میں کمی کا منظر نامہ سامنے آ رہا ہے۔



چار -گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن زیرو لائن کے اوپر مضبوط ہو رہا ہے۔ کم از کم، مقامی قیمت 1.3141 تک بڑھنے کا قوی امکان ہے۔ 1.3141 سے اوپر ہولڈنگ، جو کہ ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے ساتھ بھی موافق ہے، 1.3220 میں پیش رفت کے لیے ایک مضبوط سگنل ہوگا۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

GBP/USD

GBP/USD pair jo iss waqt 1.30140 ke qareeb hover kar raha hai, ne kuch arsay se bearish trend dikhayi hai. Yeh downward movement is baat ka ishara hai ke sellers ka pressure buyers se zyada hai, jiski wajah se British pound ki qeemat US dollar ke muqablay mein kamzor ho rahi hai. Halaanki market dheemi raftaar se chal rahi hai, kuch aise asar dekhne ko mil rahe hain jo is baat ki nishani dete hain ke agle kuch dino mein significant shift ho sakta hai, jo market mein volatility ko barha sakta hai.
Kai factors hain jo is anticipated movement ka sabab ban sakte hain. Pehli baat yeh hai ke UK aur US se anay wali economic data releases GBP/USD pair ke behavior mein ahm kirdar ada karti hain. Koi bhi bara elaan, jaise ke interest rates mein tabdeeli, inflation figures, ya employment reports, badi harakat ko trigger kar sakti hain. Misal ke taur par agar Bank of England (BoE) interest rates barhane ka ishara karta hai taake inflation ko control kiya ja sake, to yeh pound ko mazid taqat de sakta hai aur GBP/USD pair ko ooper push kar sakta hai. Doosri taraf, agar US se strong economic data aati hai to yeh dollar ko mazid mazboot kar sakti hai, jis se pair aur neeche ja sakti hai.

Ek aur ahm factor jo dekhne layak hai wo hai ongoing geopolitical situation, jisme trade agreements aur Brexit se mutaliq developments bhi shamil hain. Koi bhi unexpected khabar ya negotiations market ke sentiment mein achanak tabdeeli la sakti hain, jo GBP/USD exchange rate mein taiz upar ya neeche ki harakat ka sabab ban sakti hain. Iske ilawa, global market sentiment ka bhi is pair par asar hota hai. Agar investors risk se bachne ke liye safe-haven assets dhoondh rahe hon, to dollar kaafi dafa gain karta hai, jisse GBP/USD girta hai. Agar risk-on sentiment ho, to pound zyada taqatwar ho sakta hai.

Nazdeek ke waqt mein, technical analysis yeh bhi suggest karta hai ke traders ko ek potential breakout ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Agar bearish trend jari rehta hai, to pair lower support levels ko test kar sakta hai, jo ek downward breakout ka imkan paida karega. Magar agar koi reversal hota hai, aur pair key resistance levels ke upar break karta hai, to yeh ek naye bullish trend ka aghaz ho sakta hai. Indicators jaise ke moving averages, RSI, aur MACD in movements ko confirm karne mein madadgar honge.

Mukhtasir mein, jabke GBP/USD is waqt downward trend mein hai aur dheemi raftaar se chal raha hai, traders ko tayar rehna chahiye ke agle kuch waqt mein sharp movements dekhne ko mil sakti hain. Economic indicators, geopolitical developments, aur technical signals ko monitor karna agle price action ke liye zaroori hoga. Jo log actively is pair ko trade kar rahe hain, unhein ehtiyaat karni chahiye kyun ke aanay wale data aur events se volatility barh sakti hai, jo risks aur opportunities dono ka sabab ban sakti hai.



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GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD D1 time frame par yeh saaf nazar aata hai ke currency pair kuch trading dinon tak range-bound movement dikhata raha. Yeh consolidation key resistance level 1.3240 ke just upar hui. Is doran, market indecisive raha, kyunki bulls aur bears control ke liye takra rahe the, jis se sideways movement hui. Is range zone mein, price upper resistance aur lower support levels ke beech fluctuate hota raha, jo buyers aur sellers ke beech ek temporary balance banata hai.

Kayi dinon tak range hone ke baad, GBP/USD ne finally range zone ke support level ko tod diya. Yeh bearish breakout bohot ahem tha, kyunki yeh darshata hai ke sellers ne market par control hasil kar liya hai. Pair ne moving average lines ke neeche bhi cross kiya, jo pichle hafte se barh rahe bearish momentum ko aur confirm karta hai. Jab koi currency pair apne moving averages ke neeche girta hai, to isay aam tor par bearish signal samjha jata hai. Traders aksar moving averages ko trend ki overall direction determine karne ke liye istemal karte hain. Is case mein, price ka moving averages ke neeche jana yeh strong indication hai ke bears control mein hain aur market mein downward pressure aage bhi dekhne ko mil sakta hai.


**GBP/USD Market Behavior Analysis**

Market behavior ke hawale se, yeh consolidation phase bohot critical hai. Agar 1.30000 ke bottom liquidity zone ke neeche break hota hai, to yeh bearish trend ke continuation ka sanket de sakta hai, jisme potential downside targets 1.29500 ya isse neeche ho sakte hain, jo pehle ke demand areas ke sath align karte hain.

Magar, agar pair 1.31000 ke resistance ko todta hai, to bullish retracement FVG zone ki taraf ho sakta hai, jo buyers ko upar ke levels test karne ka mauka dega, khaaskar 1.31500–1.32500 ke aas-paas.

Aam tor par, jab market ne apne girne ko thoda ruk diya hai, to yeh consolidation phase yeh darshata hai ke yeh ek indecision period hai jahan liquidity agle significant move ke liye build ho rahi hai. Bulls aur bears dono momentum confirmation ka intezar kar rahe hain, isliye 1.30000 aur 1.31000 ke aas-paas ke key levels future price action ke liye bohot critical hain.

Agar bullish momentum wapas aata hai, to FVG buyers ke liye ek tempting target hai, lekin bears ab bhi control mein hain jab tak price 1.31000 ke neeche rahta hai.

GBP/USD Pair Ka Jaiza

GBP/USD pair ne Monday ko neeche ki taraf move kiya, lekin asal mein, hum ek bilkul flat market dekh rahe hain. Haan, price dheere dheere neeche ja rahi hai, lekin volatility minimal hai aur movement bohot erratic hai. Is liye, is movement ko intraday trade karna bohot mushkil hai aur shayad ye worthwhile bhi nahi hai. Phir bhi, British pound girta ja raha hai, jabke kal kisi bhi macroeconomic publication ya fundamental event ka ghatna nahi hua.

Agar price conditional trendline ko break bhi kar deti hai, toh ye zyada maayne nahi rakhega. Sab log do hafton se correction ki umeed kar rahe hain. Lekin, ek flat movement mein trendline ka break hona ye nahi hai ke pound 100–200 points tak correct hoga. Medium term mein, hum ab bhi umeed karte hain ke pair girta rahega. Is hafte UK inflation report ko madde nazar rakhein.

5-minute timeframe par, Monday ko kuch trade signals bane, lekin un par amal karne ki koi wajah nahi thi. 5-minute chart par saaf dikhai deta hai ke price poore din sideways move kar rahi thi. Flat market mein levels, trendlines, aur doosre technical signals/indicators kaam nahi karte.

**Tuesday Ko Trading Kaise Karein:**

Hourly timeframe par, GBP/USD pair ne upward trend ko break kiya hai aur girna jaari rakha hai. US dollar ne apni upward trend phir se shuru kar di hai, lekin selling karte waqt ehtiyaat baratni chahiye, kyunki pair ne pichle do hafton mein kisi bhi correction ki koshish nahi ki. Phir bhi, abhi correction ki umeed rakhne ka koi asal sabab nahi hai. Medium term mein, hum expect karte hain ke pair girta rahega, kyunki hum ye sirf ek logical option samajhte hain.

Tuesday ko phir se kuch nahi, sirf flat movement ki umeed hai. Hum beginner traders ko yaad dilate hain ke flat market mein trendlines ya levels ko break karne par bohot kamzor signals milte hain. Aur abhi hum bohot low volatility ka bhi samna kar rahe hain.

5-minute timeframe par, aap levels 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3365, 1.3428-1.3440, 1.3488, aur 1.3537 se trade kar sakte hain. Tuesday ko UK wage aur unemployment reports publish honge. Ye kuch interesting reports hain, lekin kamzor downward trend shayad barqarar rahega, saath hi low volatility bhi. Wednesday ko, UK inflation report market ko thoda hila sakta hai.

GBP/USD currency pair par tawajju dete hue, maujooda market dynamics yeh darshata hai ke ek golden cross pattern bana hai. Yeh pattern tab hota hai jab 50-period moving average (MA) 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) ke upar chala jata hai, jo technical analysis mein ahmiyat rakhta hai. Yeh crossover potential upward momentum ka ishara deta hai, khaaskar jab sellers 1.0875 aur 1.0954 par support levels ko torne mein nakam rahe hain. Is scenario ko dekhte hue, traders golden cross formation ko sell order lagane ka signal samajh sakte hain.

GBP/USD ke maujooda market conditions par nazar dalne par yeh saaf hai ke pair pichle hafte se upar ke levels par jane ki koshish kar raha hai. Lekin, is upward movement ki sustainability ke bare mein shak hai. Oscillators yeh darshate hain ke jabke pair upar ki taraf ja raha hai, lekin kuch indicators aggressive buying ke khilaf caution dete hain. Isliye, mauqe par bechnay ki sochna zyada behtar hai, khaaskar jab reversal ka potential ho.

Haal ke market behavior is cautious approach ko support karta hai. Pichle hafte ke price movements ke baad, jab market ek upward push ke baad jaldi se retrace hua, yeh zaroori hai ke vigilant rahein. Aisi volatility se yeh darshata hai ke traders ko kisi bhi entry decision se pehle situation ko achi tarah se samajhna chahiye. Yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke market tezi se shift ho sakta hai, jo capital preservation ke liye ahmiyat rakhta hai.

Capital safety par tawajju dena bhi zaroori hai. Jab traders market mein navigate karte hain, toh risk management ko effectively handle karna vital hai. Protective measures, jaise appropriate stop-loss orders set karna, traders ko unexpected downturns se apne capital ko mehfooz rakhne mein madad de sakta hai, jo ek sense of security faraham karta hai. Agar risk management ko nazar andaz kiya jaye, toh bohat zyada losses ka khatara hota hai bina samjhe.

Khilaf, jabke GBP/USD pair golden cross bana raha hai aur potential dikhata hai, lekin market conditions ye darshati hain ke ek zyada cautious approach zaroori hai.

**GBP/USD ANALYSIS**

**D1 Period Chart**
Ek baar phir, main D1 period chart par nazar rakhne ka mashwara dunga - GBPUSD currency pair. Aakhri kuch hafton mein sellers ka raaj raha hai, aur yeh pehle se hi wazeh tha ke girne ki bohot zyada sambhavna thi. MACD indicator jo istemal kiya gaya tha, usne bearish divergence dikhayi - jo ke ek mazboot sell signal hai. Aap ek decline ka figure bhi bana sakte hain - ek ascending wedge. Dusra indicator, CCI, ne bhi decline dikhaya, isne bhi MACD ki tarah bearish divergence dikhayi. Aam tor par, doosre currency pairs, dosti aur dushmani ke, ne US dollar ki taqat mein izafa ki nishandahi ki hai.

Jo girawat hui, woh pehle se hi umeed thi. Is girawat ke doran, ek horizontal support level 1.3010 tak pahuncha gaya. Aakhri daily candle ne upar ki taraf ek khasiyat se band hui, jo ke growth ki shuruat ka ishara hai, khaaskar jab yeh serious support ke nazdeek ho. CCI indicator ne neeche ke overheating zone se upar ki taraf jaane shuru kiya. MACD indicator par bhi choti 4-hour period mein bullish divergence hai. Aam tor par, market ke mukhya currencies ab correction karne ka iraada rakh rahi hain, kafi zyada US dollar ki taqat ke baad.

Beshak, wo ab bhi qeemat ko neeche le jane ki koshish kar sakte hain, lekin aam tor par, neeche ki taraf chalne ka potential ab kam hai, jabke upar ki taraf chalne ka potential is marahil par zyada dilchasp hai. Mukhtasar yeh ke, main sirf upar ki taraf entries par ghور karunga jab chhote time periods par mutabiq formations banengi. Aage neeche jaana promising lagta hai, lekin sirf upar ki correction ke baad, nazriyat ke mutabiq umeed ki ja rahi growth resistance level 1.3233 tak pahuncha sakti hai, kyunki yeh kabhi bhi neeche se test nahi hui hai uski breakdown ke baad.

GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka jaiza liya gaya hai, jismein kal ka breakout bullish buy level se upar nikalna ghalat sabit hua. Is breakout ke baad koi khaas upar ki harkat nahi dekhi gayi, aur bearish sell level 1.31285 ko breach kar diya gaya. Ye bearish breakdown asal mein bullish bias ko khatam kar deta hai, jis wajah se main selling ki taraf shift ho gaya hoon. Ab main ummeed karta hoon ke price kam se kam 1.30859 tak gir sakti hai, lekin ye aur bhi niche ja sakti hai, chahe woh bearish channel ke lower boundary ki taraf ho ya support level 1.29384 tak. Main sirf tab dobara buying ka sochunga jab bullish buy level se upar koi breakout ho. Filhal, meri alternative bullish buy level 1.31399 par hai. Agar bulls is level ko todne mein kamiyab ho gaye, to main foran buying karunga aur 1.31849-1.32089 resistance levels ki taraf badhne ki ummeed rakhunga. Pehle ki high tak bhi growth ka potential hai. Main ab bhi upar ki taraf harkat ko mumkin samajhta hoon, isi liye main apni buy position band karne mein hichkichahat kar raha hoon. 1.3049 ke aas-paas ek puri tarah se upward movement price ko mere profit target 1.3407 tak le ja sakti hai, lekin main is natije ki tasdiq nahi kar sakta. Agar bears price ko 1.2919 tak le jate hain, to main apni buy position manual tor par band kar sakta hoon, kyunki bullish move ke chances kafi kam ho jayenge. Pehle, maine 1.3099-1.3049 range tak girne ki umeed ki thi, aur main ab bhi is ka intezar kar raha hoon kyunki pair filhal overbought lag raha hai. Jab ke euro ne apne gains ko lagbhag mita diya hai, pound sirf 29% tak wapas gaya hai. Agar EU inflation 2.1% tak girta hai, to European Central Bank (ECB) ke interest rates ghatane ki sambhavna hai, jab ke UK ke inflation data ka intezar hai. Jab yeh data release hoga, to market ko samajh aayega ke Bank of England bhi rates ghatata rahega. Overall, is hafte meri GBP/USD ke liye bearish soch hai, aur mujhe nahi lagta ke pair 1.3141 se upar ja sakta hai.

Yeh nafrat hai ke GBP/USD turant 1.3199 ya isse upar chadhne ki sambhavna hai, kyunki dollar ki taqat behtar fundamentals ki wajah se barh gayi hai. H1 chart par downward pressure barh raha hai, aur momentum kaafi strong lag raha hai. Is waqt, selling kharidne se zyada faida mand lagta hai, kyunki behtar prices for long positions jald mil sakti hain. Is liye, 1.3154–1.3174 range mein selling ke mauqe 1.3074 support level ke neeche break karne ko target kar sakte hain. Bahut se buyers ne apne stop-losses is level ke paas rakhe hain, aur market is point tak pahunch sakta hai, jo buying ke liye abhi jaldi ho sakta hai. Lekin, agar stops 1.3074 support level ke neeche tootte hain, to buying transactions zyada faida mand ho sakti hain. Agar koi corrective move price ko 1.3182 tak le jata hai, to ye 50-point ka faida ho sakta hai, jo proportionally zyada faida mand hai. Local low lagbhag 101 points door hai; agar ye tootta hai aur hold karta hai, to agla target 161.8 level tak 1.2992 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jo 134 points ki doori tay karega, aur agar bounce hota hai to aage aur faide ki sambhavna hai.