gbp/usd

GBP/USD pair mein mazeed girawat dekhi gayi, jo ke ek naya 4-week low tak pohch gayi, jab ke Federal Reserve ke rate cut ki umeedain kamzor ho gayi hain, is ke pichay mazboot US labor market data hai. Is ke ilawa, geopolitical tensions ne risk-off environment ko barhawa diya, jo ke British Pound par aur zyada wazan dal raha hai. Market ab November mein dovish 25 basis point ka rate cut price kar raha hai, jo ke market ke expectations se neeche hai, jab ke Fed ne September mein aggressive 50 basis point ka cut diya tha. Lekin, Fed ki rhetoric yeh suggest karti hai ke agar US economy mein mazeed kharabi aayi, khaaskar US labor market mein, to interest rates mein zyada volatility aasakti hai.
Pichlay haftay ke strong nonfarm payrolls data ne November mein do rate cuts ki umeed ko tor diya, aur interest rate traders ab is baat ka ek-in-five chance de rahe hain ke November mein koi rate cut nahi hoga. Jab ke UK se data limited hai, sterling traders ab US CPI inflation data ko closely dekh rahe hain jo ke Fed ki future monetary policy ka raasta tay karne mein madad de sakti hai.GBP/USD pair ne apni 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) ko break kiya hai aur ab 1.3100 ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo mid-September se nahi dekha gaya tha. Sterling mein 2.8% ki weakness aayi hai, halaan ke pichlay month mein multi-year highs dekhe gaye the. Technically, GBP/USD pair se ek corrective bounce ki umeed hai towards 1.3154 aur high volume node area ke neeche daily bullish range ke neeche tak. Lekin mazeed losses ke imkanaat hain, aur potential support levels 1.3032 par hain.Mazboot US dollar ki wajah se GBP/USD ka loss aur zyada severe hogaya hai. Yeh girawat US labor market data ki wajah se hai, jo ke Federal Reserve ke less aggressive rate-cut scenario ko barhawa de raha hai. Dollar ne apni safe-haven position qaim rakhi hai, halaan ke Middle East tensions ki wajah se market mein volatility hai, jo pair par pressure barhata hai aur agar 1.3100 ka support break hota hai to further declines ka imkaan hai.
Neeche ki taraf, 1.3000 ka psychological level GBP bulls ke liye ek ahem support hoga. Agar sellers ka control barh gaya aur price 1.3050 ke neeche chali gayi, to pair 1.3030 ka figure challenge kar sakta hai. Agar yeh levels breach hote hain, to agla support 1.3023 ke qareeb hoga, followed by 1.3000 ka key level. Mazeed girawat mein pair 50-day moving average (DMA) ko test kar sakta hai at 1.2973, jo ke bearish traders ke liye dekhne ka ek critical area hoga.

bearish breakdown ne bullish bias ko khatam kar diya, jiss wajah se mujhe selling ki taraf shift karna para. Ab mein umeed kar raha hoon ke price kam az kam 1.30859 tak giray gi. Yeh price aur bhi neeche ja sakti hai, ya to bearish channel ke lower boundary tak ya phir support level 1.29384 tak. Dobara buying ka sochna us waqt ho ga jab bullish buy level ka breakout hoga. Abhi mera alternative bullish buy level 1.31399 par hai. Agar bulls is level ko tod dete hain, tou mein foran buying ki taraf shift ho jaoonga, aur kam az kam 1.31849-1.32089 ke resistance levels tak ka izafa dekhne ki umeed hai. Pehle ke high tak bhi growth ka potential hai. Main abhi tak upward move ko mumkin samajh raha hoon, is liye apna buy position close karne mein hichkichahat hai. 1.3049 ke qareeb, ek full-scale upward movement meri profit target 1.3407 tak ja sakti hai, halan ke mein isay confirm nahi kar sakta. Lekin agar bears price ko 1.2919 tak le jaate hain, tou mein shayad apna buy position manually close kar doon, kyun ke us waqt bullish move ke chances kaafi kam ho jaayenge. Maine pehle 1.3099-1.3049 tak ke drop ki tawaqo ki thi aur ab bhi uska intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke abhi pair overbought lag raha hai. Euro ne to apne gains ko lagbhag erase kar diya, lekin pound ne sirf 29% ka retrace kiya hai. Agar EU inflation 2.1% pe aata hai aur significant drop show karta hai, jisse ECB rates cut kare Fed ki tarah, tou UK ka inflation data abhi pending hai. Jab yeh release hoga, tou umeed hai ke market realize karegi ke Bank of England rates ko kam karta rahega. Kul mila ke, is hafte ke liye mera GBP/USD ka outlook bearish hai, aur mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh 1.3141 se upar jaayeg Lagta hai ke GBP/USD mein foran 1.3199 ya usse zyada ka izafa Friday ke close ke baad mushkil hai, kyunke dollar fundamentals ki wajah se mazid mazboot ho gaya hai. H1 chart par downward pressure mazid barh raha hai, aur momentum bhi kaafi strong lag raha hai. Iss waqt selling buying se zyada mufeed lagta hai, kyunke long positions ke liye mazeed favorable prices abhi aanay ka imkaan hai. Is liye, 1.3154–1.3174 ke range mein selling opportunities dekhi ja sakti hain jo ke 1.3074 support ke niche break ko target karengi. Kai buyers ne apne stops yahan rakhe hain, aur market wahan ja sakta hai, is liye abhi buying ke liye waqt jaldi hai. Haan, agar 1.3074 support ke niche stops toot jaate hain, toh buying transactions mazid favorable ho sakti hain. Agar corrective move dekha jaye, for example 1.3182 tak, toh ye 50 points ka izafa ho ga, jo ke proportionally zyada profitable hai. Local low lagbhag 101 points door hai; agar ye toot jaye aur barqarar rahe, toh agla target 161.8 level tak jaa sakta hai

GBPUSD ki harakat ka tajziya yeh dikhata hai ke bullish candle resistance 1.3428 ko torhne mein nakam rahi. Yeh ek nishani hai ke bullish momentum mein kamzori ho rahi hai, halan ke harga upar ki taraf koshish ki. Yeh level ek ahm psychological barrier hai; agar yeh nahi toota, toh harga ka girna mumkin hai. Yeh mazboot resistance GBPUSD ki short-term upar ki taraf chalne mein rukawat daal sakta hai. Aane wale hafte ke liye trading ka plan yeh hai ke GBPUSD ka girna aur Moving Average (MA) 200 ki taraf aana dekha jaye. Jo trend hai, us se yeh lagta hai ke girawat ki sambhavana zyada hai, khaaskar agar koi fundamental factors GBP ko dabao dalte hain. Is liye, sell strategy ko tarjeeh deni chahiye, MA 200 ko support target ke tor par rakhte hue. Filhal harga MA 200 ke upar hai, lekin yeh us taraf aa sakta hai. MA 200 ek mazboot support hai jo girawat ko rokne ki koshish karega. Lekin, harga abhi tak khaafi landa hai aur trendline ko aggressively nahi toor raha. Yeh market mein uncertainty ko dikhata hai, jahan buyers aur sellers apni direction dhoondh rahe hain. Agar girawat ka momentum kafi nahi hua, toh harga sideways move karega. MA ke beech crossing jo ke bullish trend ko dikhati hai, woh bhi ab zyada taqat nahi rakh rahi. Yeh yeh bhi dikhata hai ke GBPUSD upar jaane ki taqat khatam hoti ja rahi hai, aur selling pressure barh raha hai. Aaj tak ki GBPUSD ki harakat yeh dikhati hai ke yeh resistance 1.3425 aur support 1.3365 ke beech sideway/ranging hai. Resistance 1.3425 ko baar baar test kiya gaya hai, aur ab yeh fresh nahi hai, is liye asani se toota ja sakta hai. Waisa hi support 1.3365 bhi ab fresh nahi hai, aur agar harga neeche ki taraf jaata hai, toh support 1.3313 tak pahunch sakta hai. Is waqt trend ab bhi bullish hai aur harga upar jaane ki sambhavana rakh raha hai. Lekin, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke harga pehle thoda correction dekhe kyunke six weeks tak continuous rally hui hai. Stochastic indicator bhi bullish movement ko support kar raha hai, lekin oversold zone tak nahi pahunch raha. Yeh sab milkar yeh dikhata hai ke GBPUSD abhi bhi upar ki taraf ja sakta hai, lekin cautious rehna zaroori hai

ki economic factors se driven hai. Ek aham wajah jo pair ke upward trajectory ko support kar rahi hai, woh hai US dollar ki broader weakness. Hal hi mein, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ne report diya ke US GDP 2024 ke second quarter mein 3.0% se barha, jo ke market expectations ke mutabiq tha. Yeh data positive tha, lekin dollar ki strength ko barhane ke liye kaafi nahi tha. Iske ilawa, US mein initial jobless claims 218,000 par aa gaye, jo ke labor market ki resilience ko dikhata hai. Lekin, Federal Reserve officials jaise ke Fed Governor Lisa Cook ke dovish remarks ne dollar ke mixed outlook ko janam diya. Cook ne 50 basis point rate cut ka mashwara diya aur "downside risks" ko employment ke hawalay se point out kiya, jo ke Fed ki less aggressive monetary policy ka ishara deti hai. Yeh dovish sentiment dollar ko weak kar raha hai, jis se British pound GBP/USD pair mein mazid faida utha raha hai. Doosri taraf, UK ne bhi apni resilience dikhayi hai, khaaskar jab Bank of England ki monetary policy par concerns ka izhar kiya gaya tha. British pound ne recent tor par strength gain ki hai, jisse umeed hai ke BoE apna rate-tightening approach zyada arsay tak barkarar rakhe ga, inflationary pressures ke chalte. Pair ke upward momentum ko public participation ne bhi support kiya, jahan logon ne buying interest dikhaya. Halankeh, markets abhi bhi ehtiyat kar rahe hain, aur woh crucial economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain, khaaskar upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Yeh fundamental uncertainty, aur US aur UK ke divergent monetary policy outlooks, GBP/USD pair mein continued volatility ka stage tayar kar rahe hain. Technical perspective se dekha jaye, toh GBP/USD ne April se lekar steady uptrend maintain kiya hai, jo ke consistently 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se support ho raha hai. Pair ne hal hi mein 1.3434 ka high touch kiya, jo ke 2.5 saal ka peak tha, lekin 1.3427 ke aas paas kafi resistance ka samna karna para. September 25 ko bulls ne is key level ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin woh kamiyab nahi ho sake, jis ke baad pair ne retracement ki taraf move kiya, wapas 34-day EMA ke taraf

USD currency pair ek aham technical level ke qareeb aa raha hai, jahan 1.3400 ka mark todne ki potential hai. Agar yeh level toota, toh yeh upar ki taraf aur movement ka darwaza khol sakta hai, jahan agla major resistance level 1.3437 hoga. Yeh level 1 March 2022 ka high darshata hai, aur is tak pahunchnay se British pound ki US dollar ke muqablay mein taqat darshayi jaayegi. Traders isay bullish trend ka jaari rehna samjhenge, khaas taur par agar momentum is point se aage barhta hai.
Agar GBP/USD pair 1.3437 ke resistance ko toota, toh agla dhyan psychological aur technical hurdle 1.3500 par hoga. Yeh round number forex trading mein ek critical level banata hai, kyunki yeh traders ke liye strong psychological ahmiyat rakhta hai. Agar yeh barrier toota, toh agla target 1.3550 tay kiya ja sakta hai. 1.3500 ke upar ka break pound ki taqat ka darshak hoga, jo economic data, market sentiment, ya geopolitical developments ki wajah se British economy ko faida pohanchata hai.

Lekin agar pair 1.3400 level ke upar momentum ko barqarar rakhne mein nakam hota hai aur girne lagta hai, toh ek mukhtalif manzar-e-qabul samne aa sakta hai. Agar yeh 1.3300 ke neeche girta hai, toh yeh potential retreat aur bearish correction ki shuruat ka ishara dega. Is surat mein, GBP/USD ko September 23 ke low par pehli support milayegi, jo 1.3248 par record hui thi. Yeh level ek key point of support hai jahan buyers shayad further losses ko rokne ke liye aayenge. Agar yeh support level toota, toh agla support level 1.3200 hoga, jo traders ke liye

Spot price apni girawat ko teen consecutive din tak barhata raha, lekin ab yeh apne daily aur weekly lows 1.3066 se bounce karke lagbhag 1.3120 par trade kar raha hai. Currency pair ne US economic data ke release ke baad neeche ki taraf pressure mehsoos kiya, khaaskar Federal Reserve ka pasandida inflation gauge jo expectations par pura utra. Is data ne yeh speculation barhadi ke US Federal Reserve agle September meeting mein rate cut par ghoor kar sakta hai. Jab tak market band hua, GBP/USD 1.3121 ke aas-paas tha, jo din ke dauran pehle ke lows se thodi recovery darshata hai.
Cable US Dollar ke khilaf 1.3070 ke nazdeek gir gaya, pichle hafte critical support level 1.3066 ke neeche girne ke baad muskil mein hai. Lekin, daily timeframe par Channel chart formation ke breakout zone ke nazdeek buying interest emerge hone ki sambhavna hai. Yeh region pair ke liye ek mazboot support level ban sakta hai jab traders GBP/USD ke agle direction ka andaza laga rahe hain.


US economy ne ghaflati taqat dikhai, jahan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dusre quarter mein 3.0% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2.8% ke projected growth rate se zyada hai. Is mazboot economic performance ne US Dollar ko aur bhi mazboot banaya. Iske ilawa, US Initial Jobless Claims report ne dikhaya ke unemployment claims August 23 tak ke hafte mein 231,000 tak kam hue, jo pehle ke 233,000 se neeche hai aur expectations ke 232,000 se thoda kam hai. Yeh positive employment data Greenback ke momentum ko Pound Sterling ke khilaf barhata hai.

Halaanki pichli losses ke bawajood, British Pound ke liye neeche ki taraf ka risk limited ho sakta hai kyunki umeed hai ke Bank of England (BoE) US Federal Reserve ke muqablay mein lambi muddat tak zyada interest rates rakhega. BoE ne haal hi mein interest rates ko 25 basis points se kam karke 5% kiya hai, aur market participants agle saal ke end tak aur 40 basis points ke cuts ka andaza laga rahe hain. BoE ka yeh hawkish stance medium term mein GBP ke liye support de sakta hai

US economy ne ghaflati taqat dikhai, jahan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dusre quarter mein 3.0% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2.8% ke projected growth rate se zyada hai. Is mazboot economic performance ne US Dollar ko aur bhi mazboot banaya. Iske ilawa, US Initial Jobless Claims report ne dikhaya ke unemployment claims August 23 tak ke hafte mein 231,000 tak kam hue, jo pehle ke 233,000 se neeche hai aur expectations ke 232,000 se thoda kam hai. Yeh positive employment data Greenback ke momentum ko Pound Sterling ke khilaf barhata hai.
Halaanki pichli losses ke bawajood, British Pound ke liye neeche ki taraf ka risk limited ho sakta hai kyunki umeed hai ke Bank of England (BoE) US Federal Reserve ke muqablay mein lambi muddat tak zyada interest rates rakhega. BoE ne haal hi mein interest rates ko 25 basis points se kam karke 5% kiya hai, aur market participants agle saal ke end tak aur 40 basis points ke cuts ka andaza laga rahe hain. BoE ka yeh hawkish stance medium term mein GBP ke liye support de sakta hai.

Spot price multi-year highs 1.3430 se peeche hat gaya hai aur 1.3050 level ke neeche aa gaya hai jab US Dollar par selling pressure kam hone laga. Lekin, yeh recent highs ke nazdeek bana hua hai, August mein 29-month peak tak pahunchnay ke baad. Price action bullish side ko pasand karta hai, jo 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.3109 ke upar hai. Neeche ki taraf, GBP/USD traders ke liye short-term targets 20-day EMA hain, jo 1.3230 mark ke thoda upar hai

USD ka analysis aaj kal kafi pechida aur ghambir hota ja raha hai. Pichle kuch waqt se, wave pattern kafi wazeh lag raha tha aur bearish wave set ki formation ko suggest kar raha tha, jiska target 1.2300 se neeche tha. Lekin, aam taur par U.S. dollar ki demand itni barh gayi hai ke ye scenario ab utna feasible nahi lagta. Demand ab bhi barh rahi hai. Abhi jo wave pattern hai, wo kafi mushkil aur complex ho gaya hai. Main aksar simple structures ka istemal karta hoon analysis ke liye, kyunke complex structures mein zyada nuances aur ambiguity hoti hai. Ab hum dekh rahe hain ke ek upward wave ne ek downward wave ko overlap kar diya hai, jo pehle ke upward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai, jo pehle ke downward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai (ye saare waves ek triangle ke andar hain). Hum sirf itna keh sakte hain ke ek expanding triangle ban raha hai jiska upper point 1.3000 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai aur balancing line 1.2600 ke aas-paas. Lekin ek aur upward wave jo kisi bhi wave pattern se fit nahi ho rahi, quotes ko triangle ke upar le gayi hai. Neeche wale chart mein alternative wave count dikhaya gaya hai. Market ne ek nayi wajah se kharidari shuru ki hai. GBP/USD exchange rate Thursday ko 35 basis points se gir gaya, jo ke itna zyada nahi hai given aaj ke news background ko. Kam se kam do FOMC members ne September meeting mein rate cut ki appropriateness par doubts express kiye. Kuch ghante pehle, U.S. GDP report for Q2 release hui, jisme US economy 3.0% grow hui, jabke pehle estimate 2.8% tha. Yeh bhi ke U.S. economy Q1 se do guna tez hui hai. Isliye, mujhe lagta hai ke U.S. dollar ka 35 basis point ka faida chhota hai; isse din ke end tak kafi zyada barhna chahiye. Pichle kuch hafton se bearish wave ke bawajood, mujhe pair ke girne ke siwa kuch nahi lagta. Main kisi aur movement ko trade karne ka sochta nahi, given the current news background. Aaj U.S. ka doosra report jobless claims par tha. Lekin is report ki value market expectations ke kareeb thi, isliye koi khaas reaction nahi hua. Overall, kuch doosre analysts ki tarah, mujhe lagta hai ke dollar bohot oversold hai, aur market agle paanch rounds ke Fed policy easing ko price kar rahi hai