Eurusd forum

EUR/USD ka H4 (4-hour) time frame ka hai, jo forex trading mein ek currency pair ka price movement dikhata hai. Is chart ke upar "Sell" aur "Buy" ke options hain, jisme current price 1.04108 (sell) aur 1.04112 (buy) hai. Yeh spread ko bhi highlight karta hai, jo buy aur sell price ka farq hai.
Chart mein candlestick pattern dikhai de raha hai, jo price ki opening, closing, high, aur low levels ko dikhata hai. Har candle ka time duration 4 ghante ka hai. Agar candle green hai, iska matlab price upar gaya, aur agar red hai, to price neeche gaya.
Moving averages (red aur blue lines) price trend ke direction ko batate hain. Agar price in dono lines ke upar hai, to bullish trend hota hai, aur agar neeche hai, to bearish trend. Is chart mein price recent candles mein moving averages ke upar dikh raha hai, jo indicate karta hai ke market upward trend mein jaa raha hai.
Neeche indicators bhi hain:

1. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Yeh indicator market ki momentum aur trend reversal ko signal karta hai. Is mein histogram (bars) aur signal lines hoti hain. Jab blue line red line ke upar hoti hai, to bullish signal hota hai, aur jab neeche hoti hai to bearish signal. Is chart mein blue line ne red line ko cross kiya hai neeche se, jo ek bullish signal hai.
2. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Yeh indicator 0 se 100 ke darmiyan hota hai aur market ki overbought aur oversold condition ko batata hai. Agar RSI 70 ke upar ho, to market overbought hai, aur agar 30 ke neeche ho, to oversold. Is chart mein RSI 60.45 ke kareeb hai, jo indicate karta hai ke market upward momentum mein hai lekin abhi overbought nahi hai.

Yeh chart analysis ke liye kaafi helpful hai. Agar aapko aur kisi cheez ka detail chahiye, to zaroor batayein!

EUR/USD currency pair ka lagta hai jo H4 time frame par dikhaya gaya hai. Is chart mein candlestick patterns price ki harakat ko represent karte hain, aur saath hi moving averages aur RSI (Relative Strength Index) ka istemal kiya gaya hai jo market ke trend aur momentum ko samajhne ke liye madadgar hain. Yellow aur white lines moving averages lag rahi hain, jin ka kaam short-term aur long-term trends ko highlight karna hai. Yellow line zyada responsive hai, shayad yeh 50-period moving average ho, jabke white lines 100 ya 200-period moving averages ho sakti hain. Price ka moving averages ke neeche rehna yeh signal deta hai ke market downtrend mein hai aur selling pressure dominate kar raha hai. Yeh situation sellers ke liye mauqa hai lekin buyers ke liye mushkil ho sakti hai. Chart ke neeche RSI indicator hai jo 14-period ka lagta hai aur abhi 41.8236 ke aas-paas hai. Yeh value neutral zone ke kareeb hai jo na oversold condition ko dikhati hai aur na hi overbought ko. Lekin, RSI ka value 50 ke neeche rehna bearish momentum ki taraf ishara karta hai. Agar yeh value 30 ke kareeb aati, toh market oversold hota, lekin abhi lagta hai ke momentum thoda stabilize ho raha hai.

Price aur moving averages ke darmiyan interaction se lagta hai ke market ek consolidation phase mein hai, jahan support aur resistance levels bohot significant hain. Agar price moving averages ke upar break kare, toh yeh reversal ka signal ho sakta hai, lekin agar price neeche gira, toh yeh bearish trend ko mazid confirm karega. Traders ke liye yeh waqt hai ke wo risk management ka khayal rakhein aur apne trades ko safe rakhne ke liye technical aur fundamental dono factors ka analysis karein. Economic events, news, aur major announcements EUR/USD ki movement par asar daal sakte hain, is liye in sab ko monitor karna zaroori hai. Chart ka overall analysis yeh dikhata hai ke abhi market selling pressure mein hai, lekin agle price moves support aur resistance zones ke break karne par depend karenge.

جنوری 10 2025 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کے لیے پیشن گوئی

کل کے دوران، یورو/امریکی ڈالر جوڑا بدھ کو قائم کی گئی حد کے اندر رہا۔ دن کے اختتام تک، جمعرات کو بیئرش کینڈل سٹک کے ساتھ بند ہوا، جو یورو کے لیے اوپر کی رفتار کی کمی کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔ آج، دسمبر کے لیے امریکی ملازمت کا ڈیٹا جاری کیا جائے گا۔



توقع ہے کہ نان فارم پے رولز نومبر میں 227,000 سے کم ہو کر 164,000 ہوں گے۔ تاہم، یہ دیکھتے ہوئے کہ ہفتہ وار بے روزگاری کے دعووں میں مسلسل بہتری آئی ہے، ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ نان فارم پے رولز کا ڈیٹا پیشین گوئی سے زیادہ ہو سکتا ہے۔ نتیجتاً، ہمیں آج یورو کے لیے کسی بھی اوپر کی رفتار کی توقع نہیں ہے۔ ہمیں یقین ہے کہ قیمت 1.0250 کی درمیانی سطح کو توڑ کر 1.0135 پر ہدف کی حمایت کی طرف بڑھ جائے گی۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت آہستہ آہستہ بیلنس لائن اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. انڈیکیٹر لائن دونوں سے نیچے گر رہی ہے۔ اس ہفتے کے اہم اعداد و شمار کے اجراء سے قبل قیمت دباؤ میں ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن نیوٹرل زیرو لائن کے نیچے افقی طور پر حرکت کر رہی ہے، جو ممکنہ نیچے کی طرف حرکت کی تجویز کرتی ہے۔ ہم یو ایس لیبر ڈیٹا ریلیز کا انتظار کر رہے ہیں۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Kal se market ki suratehal bamushkil badli hai. Euro/dollar ka joda usi range me karobar jari rakhe hue hai, 1.03 ki satah se zyada dur nahin ja pa raha hai. Mandi ka rujhan ab bhi barqarar hai. Sath hi, tezi ka rukh barqarar hai. Halankeh, mere pas kisi bhi taraf se koi fauri hadaf nahin hai. Yah dekhna aham hai keh Shumali America ke session ke dauran European currency kis tarah karobar karegi, kiyunkeh aaj ke macroeconomic calendar me labour market ka data shamil hai.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Aaj ke macroeconomic calendar me aham khabrein shamil hain jo market ke jazbat par asar dal sakti hain. America nonfarm payrolls aur berozgari ki sherah se mutalliq data jari karega. Budh ko, ADP ke ibtedai aidad o shumar se pata chalta hai keh mulazmat karne wale afrad ki taidad me tawaqqo se kam izafa hua hai. Yah bat qabile gaur hai keh 80% mamlat me, official data iske bar-aks samne aate hain. Yani, jab ADP data kamzor hota hai to, official data mazbut hote hain. Aaiye, dekhte hain keh aaj yah nazariya kaise kam karta hai.



Takniki nuqtah nazar se, market ki suratehal kal se zyada tabdil nahin hui hai. Kal, zahira taur par America me ek din ki chutti ki wajah se, euro/dollar ka joda filhal kafi sakht range me trade kar raha tha. Aaj, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh European currency 1.0328 ki satah ka test karegi. Iski mazid harkat ka inhesar breakout ya rebound par hoga.

EUR/USD: Price Analysis
Main dekh sakta hoon ke market ne meri pehli analysis ko follow kiya, jo maine live trading discussion mein share ki thi. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke meri pichli forecast bilkul expect ke mutabiq hui, jo meri analysis ki accuracy ko reinforce karti hai. Ab mujhe lagta hai ke EUR/USD pair mein agle hafte aur zyada downward movement hogi. Mera agla target 1.0210 hai, kyunke bearish momentum market par dominate kar raha hai. Main price action ko closely monitor karunga aur is trend ka faida uthane ke liye apni strategy adjust karunga. Mujhe lagta hai ke market dynamics par is waqt kai factors ka asar hai, jaise ke aanewala US inflation data, Trump's inauguration, aur Federal Reserve ka cautious stance regarding further rate cuts. Main samajhta hoon ke European Central Bank (ECB) par bhi focus hone wala hai, kyunke wo 30 January ko apni rate decision announce karenge. Mujhe umeed hai ke ECB rate ko kam karega, kyunke EU mein inflation abhi bhi low hai aur GDP growth struggling hai. Ye ek strategic move ho sakta hai, kyunke lower rates borrowing ko encourage karte hain, jo agar achi tarah utilize ho, toh economic growth ka sabab ban sakti hai. Mera maan na hai ke ye anticipation January ke dauraan market behavior mein aham role play karegi. Monday ko jab price 1.2111 ke level ke qareeb aaye, toh mujhe lagta hai ke traders apne sale positions ko cover karna shuru karenge. Iska natija ho sakta hai ke selling pressure kam ho jaye aur price upar jaane lage. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke market January mein push karegi, ECB ke rate cut ki expectations se chalti hui.

Maine kuch important news events highlight kiye hain jo Eurozone aur US se market sentiment ko drive kar sakte hain. Eurozone se German consumer price index aur EU consumer price index par focus karunga. US se producer price index, core consumer price index, consumer price index, crude oil inventories, core retail sales, initial jobless claims, manufacturing activity index, aur retail sales ko closely dekhunga. Mera yaqeen hai ke yeh sab fundamental factors pair ki direction ke liye clear guidance denge. Apni analysis ke mutabiq, mujhe lagta hai ke EUR/USD pair initially 1.0145 ki taraf southern correction karega. Uske baad mujhe umeed hai ke pair north ki taraf reverse hoga, aur 1.0290 ka target achieve karega. Main technical aur fundamental factors ko closely dekhunga taake apni outlook ko refine kar saku.

EUR/USD ki current technical analysis ke mutabiq abhi tak price ka trend bearish nazar aata hai.Abhi tak ka minimum level 1.02232 par hai aur agar bearish momentum barqarar raha to price is level tak gir sakta hai.Dusri taraf agar price upward movement kare to buyers ko 1.03235 level todna aur uske upar consolidate karna zaruri hai.Agar yeh level tod liya jaye to pehla target 1.03567 hoga aur agar momentum barqarar raha to price 1.04338 tak ja sakta hai. H1chart ke mutabiq kal ka forecast tha ke 1.02810 level se sales ka entry point banega, lekin price wahan tak nahi pohnch saka.Bollinger bands ki situation ke mutabiq price abhi lower band ke sath chalne ki koshish kar raha hai, aur dono bands outward open hain. Yeh signal deta hai ke price girne ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, magar yeh confirm karne ke liye dekhna hoga ke yeh signal develop hota hai ya nahi.
Stochastic indicator abhi zero ke qareeb hai. Price ki quality movement dekhne ke liye zaruri hai ke AO positive ya negative zone mein active acceleration dikhaye.Yeh dekh kar price ki movement ka direction samajhna asaan hoga.Sales ke liye entry point 1.02810 ke qareeb ho sakta hai, aur agar yeh level tod diya jaye to price 1.02620 aur 1.02180 tak gir sakta hai. Purchases ke liye entry point 1.03249 par hai jahan se price 1.03399 aur 1.03534 tak barh sakta hai.
Fundamental factors mein US inflation data Trump ki inauguration aur Fed ki cautious policy asar daal rahe hain. ECB ki January 30 rate decision bhi market sentiment ko drive karegi.ECB ke rate cut ki umeed hai kyunke EU mein inflation low hai aur GDP growth weak hai.Yeh rate cut borrowing ko barhawa de sakta hai jo economic growth ke liye madadgar ho sakta hai. January ke dauran price pehle 1.0145 ki southern correction karegi, aur uske baad reversal expected hai 1.0290 ki taraf. Mai technical aur fundamental factors closely monitor karunga taake apni analysis refine kar sakuon.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders (20 December - US Session)

Trading Analysis aur Euro ki Trading Ke Liye Tips

1.0385 level ka test tab hua jab MACD indicator pehle hi zero line ke kaafi upar tha, jiski wajah se mere khayal mein pair ki upside potential limited thi. Isi wajah se maine euro kharidne se parhez kiya.

Din ke doosre hisse mein tawajjo:

• US consumer spending aur income levels mein tabdeelion ka data.
• Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, jo ke Federal Reserve ke liye ek important inflation measure hai.

Agar data strong aaya, toh euro par pressure aa sakta hai, jo subah mein kuch mazbooti dikhaya tha.
FOMC ke member Mary Daly ki speech par bhi nazar rakhni zaruri hai. Wo apna economic outlook aur monetary policy par apne nazariye share kar sakte hain.

Ahm Nuqta:
Agar Mary Daly rate cuts ko ziada aggressive na hone ka ishara dete hain, toh ye currency aur financial markets, khaaskar euro mein, ziada volatility laa sakta hai.

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Buy Signal Scenarios


Scenario #1:
Aaj euro kharidna mumkin hai 1.0401 (chart par green line) ke level par, 1.0435 tak barhne ke aim ke sath.

• 1.0435 par mein market se exit karunga aur euro ko ulte direction mein sell karne ka plan banaunga, 30-35 pips ki movement ki umeed ke sath.
• Aaj euro ki rally sirf weak US data ke baad expected hai.
• Important: Kharidne se pehle confirm karen ke MACD indicator zero line se upar ho aur abhi barhna shuru kiya ho.

Scenario #2:
Agar 1.0375 level ka do martaba test ho aur MACD indicator oversold zone mein ho, toh mein bhi euro kharidne ka irada rakhta hoon.

• Ye pair ki downside potential ko limit karega aur upside reversal ka sabab banega.
• Phir 1.0401 aur 1.0435 ke levels tak growth expected hai.

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Sell Signal Scenarios


Scenario #1:
Agar price 1.0375 (chart par red line) ke level se neeche break kare, toh euro sell karna mumkin hai, 1.0335 ke target ke sath.

• Is level par mein market se exit karunga aur ulte direction mein foran kharidne ka plan banaunga, 20-25 pips ki movement ki umeed ke sath.
• Strong US data ki surat mein pair par pressure wapas aaye ga.
• Important: Sell karne se pehle confirm karen ke MACD indicator zero line se neeche ho aur abhi neeche jana shuru kiya ho.

Scenario #2:
Agar 1.0401 level ka do martaba test ho aur MACD indicator overbought zone mein ho, toh mein euro sell karne ka irada rakhta hoon.

• Ye pair ki upside potential ko limit karega aur downside reversal ka sabab banega.
• Phir 1.0375 aur 1.0335 ke levels tak girawat expected hai.

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Yeh tips khaas taur par daily basis par euro/USD pair mein trading ke liye banayi gayi hain. Hamesha ehtiyaat karein aur MACD aur doosre technical indicators ki tasdeeq par bharosa karein.

Main samajhta hoon ke market dynamics is waqt bohot se factors ki wajah se effect ho rahe hain, jin mein upcoming US inflation data, Trump ki inauguration, aur Fed ka cautious stance on further rate cuts shamil hain. Mujhe yeh bhi lagta hai ke jaldi focus European Central Bank (ECB) ki taraf shift ho jayega, kyun ke woh 30 January ko apna rate decision announce karne wale hain. Mujhe umeed hai ke ECB rate ko lower karega, kyun ke EU mein inflation abhi bhi low hai aur GDP growth mushkil mein hai. Mere khayal se yeh ek strategic move hoga, kyun ke lower rate borrowing ko encourage karega, jo agar ache tareeke se use kiya gaya toh economic growth ka sabab ban sakta hai. Mera maan-na hai ke yeh anticipation January ke doran market behavior par bohot asar dalega.
Monday ko, jab price 1.2111 level ke qareeb aayegi, mujhe lagta hai ke traders apni sales positions actively cover karna shuru karenge. Is wajah se, selling pressure kam hoga aur price mein izafa ho sakta hai. Main confident hoon ke market January mein push karega, ECB ke rate cut ki expectations ki wajah se.
Maine kuch important news events highlight kiye hain jo Eurozone aur US se aayenge aur market sentiment ko drive kar sakte hain. Mein khas tor par German consumer price index aur EU consumer price index par focus kar raha hoon. US ki taraf se, mein producer price index, core consumer price index, consumer price index, crude oil inventories, core retail sales, initial jobless claims, manufacturing activity index, aur retail sales ko closely dekhunga. Mera yaqeen hai ke yeh fundamental factors pair ke liye zyada clear direction provide karenge.
Meri analysis ke mutabiq, mein assume karta hoon ke EUR/USD pair initially ek southern correction karega towards 1.0145. Phir mein expect karta hoon ek reversal to the north, jiska target 1.0290 level hoga. Mein technical aur fundamental factors ko closely monitor karta rahunga taake apni outlook ko week ke dauran refine kar sakoon.

EUR/USD: H4 Chart Analysis

Is chart ko dekhte hue, yeh wazeh hai ke EUR/USD is waqt ek downward trend mein hai. Yellow aur white lines moving averages hain, jo price ke overall trend ka signal deti hain. Abhi tak price in averages ke neeche hai, jo yeh batata hai ke market bearish (girawat) zone mein hai. RSI indicator ka value 29.5 dikhata hai, jo oversold zone ke qareeb hai. Oversold ka matlab yeh hai ke price bohot zyada neeche gir chuka hai aur ab shayad buyers wapas market mein interest lein. Lekin abhi RSI kaafi weak hai, jo yeh bhi signal deta hai ke downward momentum filhal continue kar sakta hai. Chart mein OsMA indicator bhi dikhaya gaya hai, jo MACD ka ek variant hai. Is waqt OsMA ka negative value market ke andar girawat ki tasdeeq karta hai. Yeh bearish confirmation ka ek strong signal hai, magar agar OsMA ka value upar ki taraf jaye to market mein ek bounce ya upward movement ka izafa dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Price ke support aur resistance levels bhi dekhnay walay hain. Agar price current support level (1.02450) tod deta hai, to aglay levels tak girawat ho sakti hai. Lekin agar RSI aur OsMA recovery karte hain aur price moving averages ke upar break karta hai, to yeh bullish signal hoga. Short-term traders ke liye yeh important hai ke woh is waqt zyada risk na lein, jab tak clear confirmation na mile. Long-term investors ke liye yeh acha waqt ho sakta hai low entry points dekhne ka. Lekin har trade ke liye proper risk management bohot zaroori hai.
Market filhal bearish lag raha hai, magar indicators recovery ke signals bhi day sakte hain agar market ka momentum badalta hai. Price action aur indicators ko closely monitor karna hoga aur samajh ke saath decision lena hoga.

Price Movement
EUR/USD pair aaj 0.1% gir kar $1.0397 par aa gaya, jabke session high $1.0415 tha.
Pair Monday ko 0.15% neeche close hua, jo ke pichle 3 din ke gains ke baad pehla nuqsan tha, aur yeh 2-week high $1.0458 se door gir gaya.

Lagarde ke Remarks
European Central Bank ki President Christine Lagarde ne kaha ke eurozone apne medium-term inflation target ke kareeb hai, Financial Times ke ek interview ke mutabiq.
Pehle ke remarks me Lagarde ne kaha tha ke agar inflation 2% ki taraf dheemi hoti gayi to ECB interest rates ko aggressively cut karega.

Unhone yeh bhi kaha ke eurozone bohot nazdeek hai us stage ke jahan ECB 2% inflation target achieve karne ka elaan kar sake.

European Interest Rates

• Lagarde ke in remarks ke baad, January me 0.25% ECB interest rate hike ke chances 55% se barh kar 65% ho gaye.
• Markets predict kar rahe hain ke ECB 2025 ke dauran interest rates me 1.75% ka cut karega, jab tak mazeed eurozone growth, inflation, aur unemployment data ka intizaar hai.

US Interest Rates
Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, January me 0.25% US interest rate cut ke chances sirf 11% hain. Investors agle hafte ke zaroori US labor data ka intizaar kar rahe hain, jo mazeed hints de sakta hai.

Rate Gap
Eurozone-US interest rate gap ab 135 basis points par hai, jo ke January me barh kar 160 basis points tak ja sakta hai. Is se greenback aur bhi mazboot ho raha hai.

Yearly Performance

• Euro iss saal dollar ke muqable me 5.75% neeche hai, aur agle 4 saalon me teesra salana nuqsan record karega.
• Eurozone ko slow GDP growth aur lower inflation jese challenges ka samna tha, jo euro ki value ko asar dalte hain.
• ECB ne Federal Reserve ke muqable me zyada pessimistic note liya, aur iss saal interest rates ko 4 martaba cut kiya, jabke Fed ne 3 cuts kiye.
• Pura saal ECB ne total 135 basis points interest rates cut kiye, jabke Fed ke 100 basis points ke muqable me.

Economists yeh umeed karte hain ke 2025 me ECB interest rate cuts ke liye zyada fast pace apnaye ga.

Dollar ko mazeed support US President-elect Donald Trump ki election jeet se mila, jinhon ne tariffs aur inflationary aur stimulatory policies ka wada kiya, jo greenback ko aur taqatwar banayegi.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast
EUR/USD abhi $1.04091 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke apne pivot point $1.04139 ke kareeb hai. Agar pair is level ke neeche rahta hai, to bearish momentum barqaraar rahega, immediate support $1.03787 aur deeper support $1.03454 par hai.

Agar pivot ke upar breakout hota hai, to $1.04490 aur $1.04945 ke resistance levels test ho sakte hain.
Pair apne 50 EMA ($1.04130) se neeche hover kar raha hai, jabke 200 EMA ($1.04569) broader bearish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai.

RSI ek balanced market ko reflect kar raha hai, jo ya to ek decisive breakout ki taraf ja sakta hai ya further downside ki taraf.

Euro/USD Analysis - Daily Timeframe
Is waqt Euro/USD ka price action kaafi interesting nazar aa raha hai. Chart ke mutabiq, market ne November se consistent downtrend shuru kar rakha hai, jisme price ne lower highs aur lower lows banaye hain. Moving averages (EMA) bhi yeh confirm karte hain ke trend abhi bearish hai.
Price ne 1.08000 ke strong support level ko tod diya hai, jo ek significant signal hai ke market ab aur neeche ja sakta hai. Abhi ka price 1.07475 ke aas paas hai, jo resistance ka kaam karega agar price wapas upar jane ki koshish kare. Agar price yahan se neeche rehta hai, to agla support zone 1.06000 ke kareeb hai, jo ek strong psychological level bhi hai.
Chart par candlestick patterns bhi weak buying pressure dikhate hain, kyun ke koi bhi strong bullish candle abhi tak nahi bani hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke sellers abhi bhi market mein dominant hain.
Agar market ko bullish hona hai, to pehle price ko 1.08000 ke resistance level ke upar close karna hoga aur moving averages ke upar trade karna shuru karna hoga. Lekin jab tak aisa nahi hota, trend bearish hi rahega.
Is scenario mein, short-term traders selling opportunities dekh sakte hain jab price resistance levels ke kareeb ho. Lekin risk management zaroori hai, kyun ke forex market mein hamesha volatility hoti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price reversal ka sign deta hai, to long-term buyers ke liye yeh ek achha entry point ho sakta hai.
Summary mein, Euro/USD abhi bearish territory mein hai, aur jab tak 1.08000 ka level break nahi hota, selling pressure barqarar reh sakta hai. Apni strategy ke mutabiq trade karein aur hamesha apna risk manage karein.

EUR/USD currency pair ne Asian trading session mein Friday ke din thoda neeche trade kiya, aur 1.0300 level ke qareeb raha. Yeh chhoti si girawat ziada tar US Dollar ke mazid mazboot hone ki wajah se hui, jo Federal Reserve ke qarar ki wajah se hai ke wo foran interest rate cut karne se gurayz karega. Kaafi ahem Federal Reserve officials, jaise Boston Fed ki President Susan Collins aur Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, ne interest rate ko neeche lane ke liye ehtiyaat pasand approach ka izhar kiya. Collins ne kaha ke economic outlook ke hawale se kafi uncertainty hai, khaaskar Trump administration ki nai policies ki roshni mein, jo central bank ko ehtiyaat se kaam lene par majboor karti hai. Bowman ne bhi yehhi nazariya apnaya aur kaha ke jab tak data Fed ke inflation target ki taraf wapas aane ke bare mein wazeh saboot nahi deta, tab tak interest rate ko barqarar rakhna munasib hai.
In Fed policymakers ke dovish bayanat ne US Dollar ki demand ko mazid mazboot banaya aur Euro par neeche ka pressure dala. Halaanke Eurozone ki retail sales data, jo November mein 1.2% year-on-year izafa dikhata hai, Euro ke liye kuch support de sakta tha, lekin Eurozone mein kam inflation ke hawale se tashweesh ki wajah se iska asar mehsoos nahi hua. December ke liye preliminary harmonized consumer price index ne muted inflationary pressures ka izhar kiya, jo European Central Bank ke taraf se kisi significant interest rate cut ke expectations ko kam karta hai. Yeh kam inflation outlook ne Euro ki demand ko mazid kamzor kar diya.





Technically:
EUR/USD pair ne abhi abhi apne short-term trading range ke neeche hisse se pullback kiya hai, jo 1.0450 aur 1.0600 ke darmiyan chal raha tha. Lekin 20-day simple moving average (SMA) abhi bhi kisi bhi upward momentum ke liye ek ahem rukawat bana hua hai. Technical indicators near-term upward correction ke imkaniyat ko dikhate hain. Relative Strength Index (RSI) upward trend kar raha hai, lekin abhi 50 ke neutral threshold ke neeche hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator apne trigger line ke upar hai lekin zero level ke neeche, jo short-term upward correction ke imkanat ko mazboot karta hai. Agar 20-day SMA, jo filhal 1.0520 par hai, ke upar break hota hai, to yeh Euro ke liye ahem ho sakta hai. Aisa break 1.0600 level ke retest ka raasta banayega, jo short-term trend mein tabdeel ka izhar karta hai.

EUR/USD currency pair mein Wednesday ko dobara downward pressure dekha gaya aur price 1.0300 level ke qareeb gir gayi.Ye girawat Eurozone ke mixed economic data releases ke doran samne ayi. German retail sales aur pan-European Producer Price Index (PPI) ke kuch behtareen numbers se European trading ke aghaz mein rebound dekha gaya, magar overall economic activity ab bhi slow rahi. Khas tor par EU PPI inflation contractionary territory mein barqarar rahi. Ab market participants December ke European retail sales data ka intizar kar rahe hain jo ke Thursday ko release honge, aur umeed hai ke ye Euro ko support denge. Is release se pehle, traders German industrial production data ko bhi closely monitor karenge jo Eurozone economy ki condition par mazeed insight de sakta hai. Thursday ke din Federal Reserve policymakers ke speeches aur December ka Challenger job cuts report bhi release hoga, jo ke Friday ke anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ka preview provide karega. Recent ADP Employment Change report mein hiring slowdown dekhne ko mila jo 122,000 par tha ye estimate se neeche aur mid-2021 ke baad se sabse low wage growth ko show karta hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, EUR/USD pair ab bearish bias show kar rahi hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40 se neeche chali gayi hai jo girawat ke zyada hone ka signal de rahi hai. Saath hi Moving Average Convergence Divergence RSI chart par green bars decline kar rahi hain, jo dikhata hai ke buyers ke peechle efforts ab kamzor ho rahe hain.Agar price 50 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke upar break kare toh ye bearish trend ke reversal ka pehla signal ho sakta hai.Lekin jab tak aisa nahi hota EUR/USD pair ke liye downside ka risk zyada hai.Traders upcoming macroeconomic data releases khusoosan NFP report ko closely dekh rahe hain.Saath hi price action ka 50 day EMA ke qareeb analysis bhi zaroori hoga jo market sentiment ke shift ka pehla indication de sakta hai Agar NFP ka number 200,000 se zyada hota hai toh USD ko weekend tak support mil sakta hai aur EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai. Waisay agar number 150,000 se neeche ata hai toh iska ulta asar pair par ho sakta hai.Agar NFP ka number consensus ke kareeb hota hai toh Unemployment Rate ka change USD ki value ko impact karega unexpected rise se currency ko nuksan aur ulta hone par faida hoga.

EUR/USD ka H1 chart hal hi ke market dynamics ka ek mukammal jaiza deta hai, jo ek musalsal bearish trend ko zahir karta hai jo ke dekhay gaye muddat mein develop hua hai. Ye trend ek downward-sloping moving average ke zariye wazeh hota hai, jo ek dynamic resistance level ke tor par kaam karta hai, aur lower highs aur lower lows ka musalsal pattern zahir karta hai. Price moving average ke neeche mazbooti se rehta hai, jo market mein sellers ki dominance ko confirm karta hai. Ek ahem horizontal support level 1.02400 ke qareeb samney aaya hai jo ek critical zone of interest ban gaya hai. Price is level ko kai dafa test karta hai magar decisively neeche break karne mein nakam rehta hai. Ye area ek psychological barrier ka kaam karta hai, jo ye zahir karta hai ke buyers selling pressure ko absorb karne ki koshish kar rahe hain.
Magar, price ka meaningful recovery karne ya moving average ke ooper trade karne mein nakam rehna ongoing bearish sentiment ko highlight karta hai. Khusoosan, significant downward movements ke doran volume spikes strong market participation ko reflect karti hain, jo bearish outlook ko aur validate karta hai.
Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index) aur MFI (Money Flow Index) bhi bearish narrative ke sath align karte hain aur momentum aur volume dynamics par insights faraham karte hain. RSI aksar oversold threshold 30 ke neeche chala jata hai, jo persistent bearish momentum aur buying strength ki kami ko zahir karta hai. Isi tarah, MFI bhi oversold level 20 ke neeche rehta hai, jo capital outflows aur strong selling pressure ko highlight karta hai. Dono indicators ki oversold conditions yeh indicate karti hain ke short-term relief rally ya consolidation ka imkan hai, kyun ke market aksar extreme conditions par react karta hai.
Lekin, bagair kisi strong bullish catalyst ya moving average ke ooper break ke, koi bhi recovery limited rehne ka imkan hai. Agar price 1.02400 support ke neeche decisively break karta hai, to mazeed downside potential ke liye rasta khul jayega. Iske baraks, agar price moving average ke ooper sustained move kare, to ye momentum shift aur bullish sentiment ka aghaz zahir kar sakta hai. Traders ko in critical levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur apne trading decisions ko validate karne ke liye additional confirmations, jaise candlestick patterns ya fundamental news, ka use karna chahiye.