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Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

German Inflation Data se Pehle Hi Euro Increase Howa

Euro dosre currencies ki nisbat bohut teezi k sath trend change ho raha hai. Euro European trade mein Friday ke din 26-mahinon ke lows se US dollar ke muqable mein ooper gaya, jo active short-covering ki wajah se hua.

German Inflation Data Se Pehle Euro Ka Izafa
Yeh izafa is liye bhi hua kyun ke investors bade positions lene se guraiz kar rahe hain, German inflation data ke ahem hone ki wajah se jo December ka hai. Yeh data ECB (European Central Bank) ki policy decisions ka rukh tay karega is mahine.

The Price
EUR/USD 0.15% barh kar $1.0318 par aa gaya, jabke session-low $1.0294 tha.
Euro Friday ko greenback ke muqable mein 0.45% barha, chaar sessions mein pehli bar profit dikhate huye, aur 26-mahinon ke lows $1.0223 se door gaya.

Magar euro ne pichle hafte dollar ke muqable mein 1.1% kho diya, jo lagataar paanchwa weekly loss tha aur November ke baad se sabse bara tha. Yeh concerns kehte hain ke eurozone aur US ke interest rate gap mein izafa ho sakta hai.

European Rates
European Central Bank ke January mein 0.25% interest rate cut ke odds 65% hain, kyun ke inflation dheere dheere kam ho rahi hai.

German Inflation
Aaj ke baad, December ka German inflation data release hoga, jo eurozone ka overall inflation data release hone se ek din pehle hai.

ECB President Christine Lagarde ne kaha ke eurozone medium-term inflation target ke qareeb hai, Financial Times ke ek interview ke mutabiq.

Lagarde ne pehle yeh bhi kaha ke agar inflation 2% ke qareeb aana jaari rakhta hai to ECB interest rates zyada aggressively cut karega.

Unhone kaha ke eurozone is stage ke kareeb hai jahan ECB 2% inflation target ke achievement ka elan kar sakta hai.

EUR/USD Rises to Mid 1.03’s, German Inflation Data Ahead
EUR/USD holiday period selloff ke baad recovery karte huye 1.02225 par gira. 2025 mein EUR/USD ke parity par aane ka imkan abhi bhi ruled out nahi hai, kyun ke policy divergence ek haqeeqat hai.

Market participants ke liye sirf ek upside yeh ho sakti hai ke aise drop ko ek achi opportunity samjha jaye. History ne dikhaya hai ke parity ki taraf ya neeche ke dips zyada dair tak nahi rehte aur buying pressure tez ho jata hai. Kya history phir se repeat hogi?

Is waqt ka immediate risk German inflation data hai, jo aaj ke baad aayega. Forecast ke mutabiq German inflation December mein 2.4% tak barhne ki umeed hai, jo November ke 2.2% se zyada hai.

Agar data strong aaya, to EUR/USD 1.0400 ke kareeb aa sakta hai, magar yeh izafa zyada dair nahi chalega. EUR/USD abhi bhi bearish pressure face kar raha hai aur is hafte ke liye kaafi data release hone wala hai. Hafte ke shuruat mein correction aur phir selloff hone ka imkan hai.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD ne Friday ke bullish inside bar candle close ke baad kuch momentum hasil kiya hai.

EUR/USD

Daily timeframe par trend abhi bhi bearish hai jab tak koi daily candle 1.04300 handle ke upar close nahi hoti.

Agar aisa break hota hai, to EUR/USD long-term descending trendline aur key resistance 1.0500 handle ki taraf barh sakta hai.

Yeh theoretically ek better risk-to-reward opportunity de sakta hai short positions ke liye, magar iss point par daily chart ek character change ko note karega, jahan swing high 1.04300 par tootega. Yeh play counter-trend nature ka hoga aur EUR/USD ke mazeed barhne ka risk barha dega.

Yeh EUR/USD ke liye ek interesting week ho sakta hai, aur DXY (Dollar Index) is pair ke developments ka central hissa banega.

Euro/USD Analysis - Daily Timeframe
Is waqt Euro/USD ka price action kaafi interesting nazar aa raha hai. Chart ke mutabiq, market ne November se consistent downtrend shuru kar rakha hai, jisme price ne lower highs aur lower lows banaye hain. Moving averages (EMA) bhi yeh confirm karte hain ke trend abhi bearish hai.
Price ne 1.08000 ke strong support level ko tod diya hai, jo ek significant signal hai ke market ab aur neeche ja sakta hai. Abhi ka price 1.07475 ke aas paas hai, jo resistance ka kaam karega agar price wapas upar jane ki koshish kare. Agar price yahan se neeche rehta hai, to agla support zone 1.06000 ke kareeb hai, jo ek strong psychological level bhi hai.
Chart par candlestick patterns bhi weak buying pressure dikhate hain, kyun ke koi bhi strong bullish candle abhi tak nahi bani hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke sellers abhi bhi market mein dominant hain.
Agar market ko bullish hona hai, to pehle price ko 1.08000 ke resistance level ke upar close karna hoga aur moving averages ke upar trade karna shuru karna hoga. Lekin jab tak aisa nahi hota, trend bearish hi rahega.
Is scenario mein, short-term traders selling opportunities dekh sakte hain jab price resistance levels ke kareeb ho. Lekin risk management zaroori hai, kyun ke forex market mein hamesha volatility hoti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price reversal ka sign deta hai, to long-term buyers ke liye yeh ek achha entry point ho sakta hai.
Summary mein, Euro/USD abhi bearish territory mein hai, aur jab tak 1.08000 ka level break nahi hota, selling pressure barqarar reh sakta hai. Apni strategy ke mutabiq trade karein aur hamesha apna risk manage karein.

EUR/USD ka yeh H4 (4 ghantay ka) chart currency pair ki price ki harkat aur trading indicators ka ek comprehensive overview deta hai. Chart par jo candlestick patterns dikh rahe hain, woh price ke utar chadhaav ko dikhate hain, aur yeh baat wazeh hai ke recent dino mein price pehle neeche girne ke baad ab upar ki taraf recover kar raha hai. Peeli aur safed moving averages (MAs) price ke trend aur momentum ko samajhne ke liye shamil hain. Peeli line short-term moving average hai, jo price ke kareeb chal rahi hai, jabke safed line long-term moving average hai, jo lambay duration ka trend show karti hai. Dono lines ke darmiyan ka faasla abhi bhi bearish trend ko signal karta hai, lekin price ab uske upar break karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Neeche RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator bhi dikh raha hai, jo price ke strength aur weakness ka signal karta hai. Is waqt RSI ka reading 57 ke kareeb hai, jo neutral zone mein hai. Yeh dikhata hai ke price na to overbought (70 se zyada) hai aur na hi oversold (30 se kam). Yeh situation traders ke liye ek balanced scenario hai, jahan woh dekhte hain ke aage price ka rujhan kaisa rehta hai.

Chart ke mutabiq, price ka rujhan dobara upward lag raha hai, lekin resistance levels jo moving averages ke kareeb hain, unko todna zaroori hoga taake bullish momentum barqarar rahe. Agar price safed moving average ko tod kar upar jata hai, toh yeh confirmation hogi ke uptrend ka aghaz ho raha hai. Iske bar’aks, agar price dubara neeche aata hai aur recent support levels todta hai, toh bearish trend barqarar reh sakta hai.
Is chart ka analysis yeh suggest karta hai ke trading karte waqt support aur resistance levels ka khayal rakhna chahiye. Saath hi, RSI aur moving averages ka analysis karna zaroori hai, jo price ke aage ke rujhan ke liye helpful ho sakta hai. Yeh chart traders ke liye ek clear strategy banane mein madadgar hai.

جنوری 7 2025 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

یورو/امریکی ڈالر جوڑا، اگرچہ کچھ مشکل کے ساتھ، 1.0350 مزاحمتی سطح سے آگے نکلنے میں کامیاب ہو گیا ہے۔ تاہم، 1.0461 کی سطح تک پہنچنے کی اس کی کوشش کو یومیہ ٹائم فریم پر بیلنس لائن انڈیکیٹر نے روک دیا تھا۔

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مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن ترقی کے علاقے کے کنارے سے ممکنہ الٹ جانے کی نشاندہی کرتی ہے۔ ایسا لگتا ہے کہ دو دن کی اصلاح شاید اپنے اختتام کے قریب ہے۔ اس الٹ جانے کی تصدیق کرنے کے لیے، قیمت کو 1.0350 کی سطح سے نیچے مستحکم ہونے کی ضرورت ہے۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے اوپر بڑھ گئی ہے لیکن بیلنس لائن سے اوپر رہنے میں کامیاب نہیں ہوئی۔

غلط بریک آؤٹ ہونے کا امکان ہے، جس کا مطلب ہے کہ قیمت جلد ہی 1.0350 کی سطح سے نیچے گر سکتی ہے، جس سے ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے نیچے منتقل ہونے کی تصدیق ہوتی ہے۔ مزید برآں، مارلن آسیلیٹر زیرو لائن سے نیچے گرنے کے لیے تیار دکھائی دیتا ہے۔

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یورو میں کل کے اضافے کی وجہ دسمبر کے لیے یو ایس سروسز پی ایم آئی میں متوقع سے کمزور اضافہ ہے، جس نے 58.5 کی پیشن گوئی کے مقابلے میں 56.8 کی قدر ریکارڈ کی تھی۔ تاہم، یہ اعداد و شمار اب بھی نومبر کے 56.1 کے پڑھنے سے ترقی کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔ آج، ism سروسز pmi کے 52.1 سے 53.2 تک بڑھنے کی بھی توقع ہے۔

.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Euro Musalsal Losses k Baad Trend Reversal Kar Gaya

Euro ne Tuesday ke din European trade mein izafa kiya aur US dollar ke muqable mein tisre din tak gains banaye rakhein. Yeh currency week high ke qareeb hai, jabke German inflation ke tez hone se ECB ke January mein interest rate cut ki umeedain kam ho gayi hain.
Ab investors Eurozone ke December inflation data ka intezar kar rahe hain jo aaj late aaye ga aur mazeed clues faraham karega.

Price

• EUR/USD pair 0.15% barh kar $1.0403 par pohonch gaya, jabke session-low $1.0376 dekha gaya.
• Monday ko yeh pair 0.8% barha, jo lagataar dusri martaba profit tha, aur 26 mahine ki neechey satah $1.0223 se door ho gaya.

Euro ko ek aur boost Washington Post ki report se mila, jo yeh dikhati hai ke US President-elect Donald Trump expected se kam aggressive tariff plan implement karenge.

German Inflation
German data ke mutabiq consumer prices December mein 2.6% barhein, jo November ke 2.2% aur 2.4% ke estimates se zyada hai.

Eurozone ki sabse badi economy mein nayi inflationary pressures ka hona is baat ki umeed barhata hai ke European Central Bank apne agle rate cut ka waqt delay karega.

European Rates
Iss data ke baad ECB ke January mein 0.25% interest rate cut ke chances 65% se gir kar 55% ho gaye hain.
Ab investors Eurozone ke consumer prices data ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo umeed hai ke December mein 2.4% barhein ge, jo November ke 2.2% se zyada hai.

US Dollar Index: Ahem Data Aur Events Ka Jaiza
US Dollar Index kamzor economic data ke baad neeche gir gaya. Final Services PMI 56.8 par raha, jo forecasted 58.5 se kam tha, jabke Factory Orders -0.4% gir gaye, jo economic activity mein slowdown ka asar dikhata hai.

Traders ab kuch ahem events ka intezar kar rahe hain, jaise ke ISM Services PMI (53.5 ka forecast hai) aur JOLTS Job Openings, taake Fed ke possible policy trajectory ka andaza lagaya ja sake.

Aane wale Trade Balance report aur FOMC Member Barkin ke remarks bhi index ko asar daal sakte hain. Economic growth aur Federal Reserve policy ke gird uncertainty ne DXY ko range-bound rakha hai, aur near-term movement upcoming data releases se mutaliq hai.

Euro Ke Gains Aur CPI Par Focus
Euro (EUR) ne resilience dikhayi jab German Prelim CPI 0.4% barha, jo forecasts ke 0.3% se zyada tha. Spanish Services PMI 57.3 par surge kar gaya, jabke Italian Services PMI 50.7 tak pohonch gaya, jo key expansion threshold ko cross karta hai. French aur German PMIs steady rahein 49.3 aur 51.2 par. Sentix Investor Confidence -17.7 par tha.

Upcoming CPI data, jisme Core CPI Flash Estimate 2.7% aur unemployment rate 6.3% expected hai, Euro ke liye mazeed direction dikhayega.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast
EUR/USD pair $1.04135 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.23% upar hai, jabke buyers ek choppy market mein control banaye rakhne ki koshish kar rahe hain. 4-hour chart par yeh pair key pivot point $1.03728 ke upar hai, jo cautiously bullish outlook ko signal karta hai.

Immediate resistance $1.04590 par hai, aur uske baad ek mazboot barrier $1.05229 par aayega. Neeche ki taraf, support levels $1.03070 aur $1.02219 par hain. Agar price pivot ke neeche girti hai, toh zyada tez declines dekhne ko mil sakte hain.

50-day EMA $1.03748 par pivot ke qareeb hai, jo iski ahmiyat ko mazboot karta hai, jabke 200-day EMA $1.04868 near-term gains ke liye ek ceiling suggest karta hai. Traders ko $1.04590 ke upar ek sustained move par focus karna chahiye, jo bullish momentum ko confirm karega.

EUR/USD

"EUR/USD ka H4 timeframe ka chart ek ahem technical analysis ka moqa de raha hai. Chart par dekhain, price ne ek strong bearish move ke baad recovery ki hai aur ab 50-period (blue line) aur 200-period (red line) moving averages ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Yeh situation humein consolidation ya ek reversal ka signal de sakti hai, magar confirmation zaroori hai.
Abhi tak price ne 50-period moving average ko test kiya hai, magar uspe sustain karne mein kami dikhai de rahi hai. Yeh is baat ki nishani hai ke abhi tak sellers market mein dominate kar rahe hain. Dusri taraf, agar price 50-period aur 200-period moving averages ke upar close kar leta hai, toh yeh bullish trend ki shuruaat ho sakti hai.
RSI indicator kaafi critical level par hai. RSI ne 50 ke level ko tod kar upar ki taraf move kiya, jo buying momentum ka signal hai. Agar RSI 60-70 ke range mein jata hai, toh price further bullish momentum dikha sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh neeche girta hai, toh market phir bearish ho sakti hai.
Support aur resistance levels ka analysis bhi zaroori hai. Neeche ki taraf 1.0400 ka level support ka kaam karega, jo pehle ek strong buying zone raha hai. Upar ki taraf, 1.0480 aur 1.0500 ke levels resistance ke tor par kaam karenge. Agar price inhe todta hai, toh long-term bullish trend ka strong signal milega.
Yeh waqt traders ke liye sabr aur discipline ka hai. Agar aap buy karne ka sochte hain, toh moving averages ke upar ka clear breakout ka intezar karein. Short karne ke liye price ka 50-period moving average ke neeche girna zaroori hai. Hamesha risk management ko madde nazar rakhein aur apne stop-loss recent swing high ya low ke qareeb rakhein.
Lastly, fundamentals ka bhi khayal rakhein. Eurozone aur US ki koi economic news is trend ko affect kar sakti hai. Proper analysis ke saath apni strategy ko update karte rahiye."