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German Inflation Data se Pehle Hi Euro Increase Howa
Euro dosre currencies ki nisbat bohut teezi k sath trend change ho raha hai. Euro European trade mein Friday ke din 26-mahinon ke lows se US dollar ke muqable mein ooper gaya, jo active short-covering ki wajah se hua.
German Inflation Data Se Pehle Euro Ka Izafa
Yeh izafa is liye bhi hua kyun ke investors bade positions lene se guraiz kar rahe hain, German inflation data ke ahem hone ki wajah se jo December ka hai. Yeh data ECB (European Central Bank) ki policy decisions ka rukh tay karega is mahine.
The Price
EUR/USD 0.15% barh kar $1.0318 par aa gaya, jabke session-low $1.0294 tha.
Euro Friday ko greenback ke muqable mein 0.45% barha, chaar sessions mein pehli bar profit dikhate huye, aur 26-mahinon ke lows $1.0223 se door gaya.
Magar euro ne pichle hafte dollar ke muqable mein 1.1% kho diya, jo lagataar paanchwa weekly loss tha aur November ke baad se sabse bara tha. Yeh concerns kehte hain ke eurozone aur US ke interest rate gap mein izafa ho sakta hai.
European Rates
European Central Bank ke January mein 0.25% interest rate cut ke odds 65% hain, kyun ke inflation dheere dheere kam ho rahi hai.
German Inflation
Aaj ke baad, December ka German inflation data release hoga, jo eurozone ka overall inflation data release hone se ek din pehle hai.
ECB President Christine Lagarde ne kaha ke eurozone medium-term inflation target ke qareeb hai, Financial Times ke ek interview ke mutabiq.
Lagarde ne pehle yeh bhi kaha ke agar inflation 2% ke qareeb aana jaari rakhta hai to ECB interest rates zyada aggressively cut karega.
Unhone kaha ke eurozone is stage ke kareeb hai jahan ECB 2% inflation target ke achievement ka elan kar sakta hai.
EUR/USD Rises to Mid 1.03’s, German Inflation Data Ahead
EUR/USD holiday period selloff ke baad recovery karte huye 1.02225 par gira. 2025 mein EUR/USD ke parity par aane ka imkan abhi bhi ruled out nahi hai, kyun ke policy divergence ek haqeeqat hai.
Market participants ke liye sirf ek upside yeh ho sakti hai ke aise drop ko ek achi opportunity samjha jaye. History ne dikhaya hai ke parity ki taraf ya neeche ke dips zyada dair tak nahi rehte aur buying pressure tez ho jata hai. Kya history phir se repeat hogi?
Is waqt ka immediate risk German inflation data hai, jo aaj ke baad aayega. Forecast ke mutabiq German inflation December mein 2.4% tak barhne ki umeed hai, jo November ke 2.2% se zyada hai.
Agar data strong aaya, to EUR/USD 1.0400 ke kareeb aa sakta hai, magar yeh izafa zyada dair nahi chalega. EUR/USD abhi bhi bearish pressure face kar raha hai aur is hafte ke liye kaafi data release hone wala hai. Hafte ke shuruat mein correction aur phir selloff hone ka imkan hai.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD ne Friday ke bullish inside bar candle close ke baad kuch momentum hasil kiya hai.
EUR/USD
Daily timeframe par trend abhi bhi bearish hai jab tak koi daily candle 1.04300 handle ke upar close nahi hoti.
Agar aisa break hota hai, to EUR/USD long-term descending trendline aur key resistance 1.0500 handle ki taraf barh sakta hai.
Yeh theoretically ek better risk-to-reward opportunity de sakta hai short positions ke liye, magar iss point par daily chart ek character change ko note karega, jahan swing high 1.04300 par tootega. Yeh play counter-trend nature ka hoga aur EUR/USD ke mazeed barhne ka risk barha dega.
Yeh EUR/USD ke liye ek interesting week ho sakta hai, aur DXY (Dollar Index) is pair ke developments ka central hissa banega.
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