یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

Euro Thursday ko apne buland tareen satah par pohch gaya, jab ke US dollar ki wide-scale sell-off ne euro ko support diya. Positive US economic data ne US economy ke slow down kay khauf ko kam kar diya, lekin kuch risks ab bhi mojood hain. US economy ne filhal recession se bach liya hai, lekin key activity data ab bhi slowdown ke isharaat de raha hai. Federal Reserve ke recent faislay ne, jisme unhon ne interest rates ko 50 basis points se cut kiya, global markets mein kuch khauf paida kiya hai. Baaz investors recession ke baray mein fears ka izhar kar rahe hain.Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne wazahat ki ke ye rate cut ek proactive measure hai taake US labor market ko support mil sake, na ke recession ke signs ko respond karne ka ikdam. Positive data jisme US durable goods orders aur weekly jobless claims shamil hain, ne Fed ke stance ko aur mazid barhawa diya aur economy ke liye ek soft landing ka tasavvur mazid mazboot kiya. Friday ka Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data bohot important hoga taake Fed ke recent rate cuts ka asar dekh sake.August mein US durable goods orders 0.0% rahe month-over-month, jo ke expectations ke 2.6% contraction se kaafi behtar hai. Iske ilawa, initial jobless claims 218,000 tak gir gaye September 20 ko khatam hone wale haftay mein, jo ke estimates ke 225,000 se behtar hain aur peechlay haftay ke revised 222,000 se bhi kam hain.Thursday ke bullish rally ke bawajood, euro ab tak 1.1200 level se neeche hi rahega. Buyers actively koshish kar rahe hain ke EUR/USD ko upper limit tak push kar sakein, lekin sellers ke pass momentum ke kami se downside move ke options mehdoood ho rahe hain. Pair ab tak 50-day EMA ke upar 1.1040 par acha khaasa stable hai, aur price action ke liye ab bhi kafi room hai taake wo 1.1200 se upar ja sake.H4 timeframe par dekha jaye to hume nazar aata hai ke takreeban 75% girawat jo hum Wednesday ko dekh rahe thay, wo Thursday ko euro/dollar par recover ho gayi. Aaj Friday hai, aur mujhe umeed hai ke upward movement jari rahegi aur pichla local maximum update hoga. H4 chart par southern channel pehle broken tha, aur ek ascending channel form ho gaya hai. Technically, lower border se rebound ke baad ek nai wave of growth shuru hui, aur buyers ka goal upper border tak pohchna hoga, jo takreeban 1.1220 ke level par intersect karega.Hum wahan ki taraf confident pace ke sath barh rahe hain, aur aap euro/dollar ko current levels 1.1176 se buy kar sakte hain. Mera bhi purchase open hai, lekin abhi tak slight drawdown ka samna hai. Agar pair Asia mein aur zyada north extend nahi hota, to hum Europe mein growth ko jari rakhein ge, bilkul kal ke example
Hum is waqt EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior analysis ke hawalay se ek dilchasp behas mein mashghool hain. August 27 ke peak ke qareeb ek "false" breakout ka dekhne ko mila hai. Aise false breakouts ke baad aksar price ulat direction mein chalna shuru karti hai, jo agle chand sessions mein neechey ki janib ja sakti hai. False breakout tab hota hai jab baday market players aur sellers ke paas consequential orders ke liye kaafi counter-liquidity nahi hoti. Jab price is zone se breakout karti hai toh us jagah par lagaye gaye orders—zyadatar buy-stop aur market-buy orders—trigger hote hain. Is liye, jab ek "false" breakout ka pata chale, toh ye prudent hota hai ke ek reversal ka intezar kiya jaye. Agar aaj ka low breach hota hai, toh rasta 1.1096 level tak khul jaye ga aur phir EMA 200 par 1.1066 tak bhi ja sakta hai. Magar yeh is baat par mabni hai ke aaj ka low breach hota hai ya nahi. Abhi pair EMA 50 se rebound karne ki koshish kar raha hai aur phir se is moving average ke oopar trade karne ka irada rakhta hai.
Agar hum EURUSD ka chart dekhein, toh aaj ek bullish scenario dekhne ko mil raha hai. Is waqt price 1.1113 par hai, aur bullish momentum zor pakar raha hai kyun ke buyers market mein apni hukoomat ko barhawa de rahe hain. Bulls apni taqat ko achi tareh se barhawa de rahe hain, jo ek strong upward trend ki nishani hai. Yeh surge yeh batata hai ke aglay chand ghantay EURUSD pair ke liye bohot aham ho sakte hain. Agar yeh bullish trend barqarar rehta hai, toh intehai imkaan hai ke price jald hi 1.1145 ke resistance level ko test kare. Yeh level ek aham marhala hai, jo agar paar ho gaya, toh bullish outlook ko mazeed validate kar sakta hai aur potential gains ka rasta khol sakta hai.

USD/JPY ka haal hi ka analysis yeh dikhata hai ke price 144.40 tak gir gaya hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke yeh 146.50 se neeche nahi jaayega. US dollar index ki tezi geopolitical tensions ki wajah se hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke USD/JPY is supply zone 145.50 ke paar phir se recover karega.
Bollinger Bands aur resistance levels par meri nazar hai: 149.251, 150.855, 153.348, aur 153.720. Pehle ki bearish trend line ko bulls ne paar kar diya hai, jo buying volume ke barhne ki nishani hai. Lekin agar price 142.901 tak girta hai, to bearish trend ki sambhavna bhi hai. 30-minute chart dikhata hai ke oscillator oversold conditions par hai, aur histogram mein uptrend shuru ho raha hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke price green zone ke through move kar sakta hai aur purani sideways range mein wapas aa sakta hai, jahan support 153.11. 1-hour chart par, aaj ka trading session is baat se shuru hua ke price ne pichle do dinon ke highest level ko tod diya, aur ab do mukhtalif price channels ke andar move kar raha hai. Pehla channel, jo blue rang mein dikhaya gaya hai, pichle do trading dinon ka sideways trend reflect karta hai. Doosra channel, jo red rang mein hai, kal ke trading session ke dauran dekhay gayi upward trend ko represent karta hai.
Filhal, price blue channel ke upar break kar gaya hai aur ab wapas aa kar isko retest kar raha hai. Agar price blue channel line ko touch karta hai, to yeh tawaqqo hai ke yeh dobara upward bounce karega, aur apni rise ko resistance level 1.1211 tak continue karega. Agar bearish scenario dekha jaye, to agar price dobara blue channel ke andar aata hai, to yeh aur bhi neeche gir sakta hai, aur weekly pivot level 1.1139 tak pochne ke baad shayad wahan se dobara upar rebound karega. Economic front par, Eurozone mein recent data ne kuch khatarnaak trends ko highlight kiya hai. Business activity September mein unexpected contraction ki taraf gayi, jo services aur manufacturing sectors mein bigharte hue halat ko dikhata hai. S&P Global ke mutabiq, region ka Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) August ke 51.0 se gir kar 48.9 par aa gaya, jo ke pehli dafa February ke baad contraction dikhata hai. Is decline ka zyada asar weak demand aur Germany aur France jaise key economies mein economic challenges ki wajah se tha. 50-point mark ke neeche girna economic activity ki slowdown ko dikhata hai, jo future growth ke liye concerns badha raha hai, aur European Central Bank (ECB) ke potential policy easing par speculation ko barhawa de raha hai. Services PMI bhi sharp fall ka shikar hua, jo August ke 52.9 se September mein gir kar 50.5 ho gaya, jabke manufacturing PMI mazeed 44.8 par aa gaya, jo ke pehle 45.8 tha. Germany, jo ke region ki sabse bari economy hai, khaas challenges face kar raha hai, jahan economy second quarter mein 0.1% se contract hui, aur third quarter mein bhi further decline ke asar hain. Yeh economic trends Eurozone ke liye badhne wali uncertainty ko dikhate hain, jo market movements ko bhi influence kar sakti hain

EUR/USD currency pair ki maujooda price behavior par guftagu ki ja sakti hai. Halankeh EUR/USD ne 1.10 ka level nahi chhoya, lekin kuch ibtidaai nishan aise nazar aa rahe hain jo kisi activity ki taraf ishaara karte hain. Mujhe is area mein koi significant rally ki umeed nahi hai, kyunki recent decline bina kisi mazboot wajah ke hui hai. Yeh girawat shayad technical factors ki wajah se hai, fundamental shifts se nahi. Yeh abhi tak wazeh nahi hai ke kya yeh pair aage aur girta rahega, kyunki kuch mazboot support levels hain jo bearish trend ko darshate hain. Is hafte ke shuru mein, ek aisi hi girawat ke baad tezi se recovery hui thi, lekin aaj ka halat kuch alag lag raha hai. Market ka jazba mein koi tabdeel nahi aayi, aur price bullish hai. Magar, weekly price close bullish momentum ke liye acha nahi nazar aa raha. 1.12036 se correction ka intezar karna samajhdari hai, kyunki markets aksar significant resistance levels tak pohanchne ke baad pullbacks ka shikaar karte hain. Is potential ko samajhna better risk management aur agle trades ki planning ke liye madadgar hai.

Agar bullish movement established hota hai target tak pohanchne ke baad, toh price action ko nazar rakhna bohot zaroori hoga taake hum bulls ki taqat aur iraade ko samajh sakein ke kya woh prices ko aur upar push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Is ke muqabil, agar entry point 1.12098 par milta hai, toh yeh nazar rakhna zaroori hoga.

Market mein niche ki taraf chalne ka asar bearish shift in sentiment ko darshata hai. Trading strategy mein flexibility rakhna zaroori hai, taake naye information par dobara guftagu aur tabdeel kar sakein. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh buying opportunities ko dobara dekhna pad sakta hai, kyunki yeh darshata hai ke market sellers ko zyada tarjeeh de raha hai.

Is adjustment mein naye support levels dhoondna ya trend reversal ka clear confirmation ka intezar karna shamil ho sakta hai. Halankeh trader ab bhi bullish taraf hai aur 1.1176 ki taraf recovery ki umeed rakhta hai. Aaj pair ki performance kuch ajeeb rahi, kyunki yeh shuru mein 1.12 ke level se upar gaya lekin phir lagbhag 101 points tak gir gaya. Trader ne technical perspective se corresponding lines chart ki hain

jo ke ek achi tareekay se established range mein fluctuating tha aur aakhir mein 1.1100 mark ke upar close kiya. Lekin, pair upper limit par naye ground ko break karne mein nakam raha. European Central Bank ki President Christine Lagarde ne ehtiyaat barathtay huay kaha ke European Union mein inflation temporarily baseline levels se neeche ja sakta hai, lekin saal ke aakhir tak wapis barh sakta hai. Yeh bayan EU mein inflation data ke release honay se pehlay diya gaya, jo ke Tuesday ko aayega, aur expected hai ke preliminary harmonized index of consumer price inflation (HICP) 1.9% tak gir sakta hai, jabke pehlay yeh 2.2% tha. Halanki overall inflation ne moderation dikhayi hai, Lagarde ne is baat ka ishara diya ke October mein inflation zyada ho sakta hai, kyunke central bankers market participants ke overly optimistic expectations ko manage kar rahe hain jo interest rate cuts ke bare mein hain. United States mein, market non-farm payrolls report ka ghor se intezaar kar rahi hai, jo ke September ke liye Friday ko release hogi. Kuch Federal Reserve ke officials bhi Monday ko data release karne wale hain. Atlanta Fed ke President Raphael Bostic ne labor market ki ahmiyat par zor diya aur is baat ka ishara diya ke agar economic data zaroorat ka ishara kare, toh rate cuts aur zyada ho sakte hain. Bostic ne kaha ke agar non-farm payrolls number 100,000 net new jobs se kam hota hai, toh yeh Fed ko aur zyada aggressive action lene par majboor kar sakta hai. Bostic ke bayanat ke baad, Fed ke Chairman Powell ne wazeh kiya ke investors ko aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ki umeed nahi rakhni chahiye jab tak US economy mein koi significant deterioration na ho. Is elan ke baad US dollar barh gaya aur interest rate traders ne November mein 50 basis point rate cut ki apni umeedon ko dobara sochna shuru kar diya. Powell ne ishara diya ke September mein ek sharp rate cut ke baad, Fed mazeed do 25 basis point rate cuts implement kar sakti hai, jis se market ke November mein 50 basis point rate cut ki umeedon mein kami aayi

EUR/USD mein nahi dekhe gaye.Agar hum daily chart se analysis shuru karein, toh aisa lagta hai ke ek fifth wave ka growth form ho raha hai, aur mujhe abhi tak koi aise wajah nazar nahi aa rahi ke yeh na ho. Pehle ek signal aaya tha Euro ke rise hone ka, jiska target 1.12301 tha, aur yeh abhi tak meri chart par purple line ke tor par mojood hai. Lekin ab hum ek different level aur signal par baat kar rahe hain, jo hourly timeframe se hai. Yeh thora qareebi target deta hai, lekin agar growth jaari rahi toh dono targets achieve ho sakte hain. Chaliye ab hourly timeframe par nazar daalte hain.Dusri chart par H4 timeframe hai, lekin targets dekhne ke liye hum hourly buy signal par discussion karenge. Signal level 1.11446 par consider kiya ja raha hai. Is signal level se neeche aur stop-loss level se ooper jo bhi buy entries hoti hain, wo advantageous aur sahi buying points hain. Stop-loss level ko 1.10677 ke neeche consider kiya gaya hai. Target jo mention kiya gaya hai, wo 1.12209 hai. Agar hum signal level se ooper buying karte hain, toh risk-to-reward ratio 1 to 1 se kam ho jata hai, jo ke long-term mein profitable nahi hoga. Dosre lafzon mein, buying entry point aise select karna chahiye ke wo 1 to 1 ratio se neeche na ho. Agar 1 to 2 ratio achieve karna hai, toh buy entries 1.11187 se start karni chahiye. Aur agar 1 to 3 ratio achieve karna hai, toh entries 1.11038 se start karni hongi. Maine chart par grid aise set kiya hai ke wo ek ruler ki tarah lagta hai. Yani, 0.0% stop hai, 100% profit hai, aur 50% level signal level hai. Currency pair EUR/USD ne Thursday ke din low level 1.10680 se reversal le kar northwards move kiya. Abhi pair Bollinger Bands ke bullish zone mein 1.11625 ke level par hai. MACD histogram zero mark se ooper hai, aur RSI midline ke ooper hai. Agle hafte price ka mazid strong hona aur 261.8% level (1.13133) tak pohanchna expect kiya ja raha hai.
EUR/USD apni taraf se barhkar saal ki unchi simat 1.1200 ke nazdeek pahuncha hai, jab ke US Dollar (USD) ko pressure ka saamna hai kyun ke China ke taraf se bada stimulus plans ka elan hua hai jo unki ma'ashi slowdown ke khataron se nikalne ke liye hai. Aam tor par, khushgawar market sentiment ke doran US Dollar mein investment flows kam hote hain.
China ke is bade stimulus ke ilawa, Federal Reserve (Fed) ke taraf se November mein bade rate cuts ki umeedon mein izafa ne bhi US Dollar ko pichhe dhakel diya hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki qeemat ko chhe badi currencies ke khilaf track karta hai, Wednesday ko thodi barh gayi hai lekin ab bhi saal ke unche simat 100.20 ke nazdeek hai.
CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Fed ke taraf se 50 basis points (bps) ka rate cut karne ki sambhavana 60% tak barh gayi hai, jo ke pehle 37% thi. Fed ne 18 September ko policy-easing cycle shuru kiya tha aur 50 bps ka bade rate cut ka elan kiya tha kyun ke officials ko declining labor demand ki chinta thi.
Is hafte, US Dollar ke liye bada trigger United States ka core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data hai jo ke Friday ko aane wala hai, jo ke Fed ka pasandeeda inflation gauge hai. Yeh andaza lagaya gaya hai ke underlying inflation measure July mein 2.6% se barh kar 2.7% tak pahunchega.
Fed ke pasandeeda inflation gauge se pehle, investors ko US Durable Goods Orders ke August ke liye data par bhi nazar rakhni hogi, jo ke Thursday ko aane wala hai. Naye Durable Goods Orders ke 2.6% tak kam hone ka andaza hai jab ke July mein ye 9.8% ki mazboot growth dikhayi thi.

EUR/USD ne Tuesday ko 1.1135 se gir kar ek din mein 0.60% ka nuqsaan uthaya, aur ab Wednesday ko 1.1070s par qareeb qareeb wohi qeemat par trade kar raha hai. Eurozone ke inflation figures ke expected se kam hone ne is girawat ko kuch had tak samjhaya. Eurozone ka Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) September mein sirf 1.8% YoY barha, jo ke 1.9% forecast se kam tha aur pehle ke 2.2% se bhi neeche raha. Core inflation bhi 2.7% YoY par tha, jo August ke 2.8% se ek tenth kam tha aur umeed se neeche aaya. In numbers ke mutabiq, ECB ka 2.0% ka target headline inflation ke liye ab door hota nazar aata hai, jabke core inflation is ke qareeb hai. Yeh baat ECB ke interest rates mein kami ka imkaan barhati hai, jo ke capital flight aur Euro ki girawat ka sabab ban sakti hai. Eurozone ke August unemployment rate ne zyada asar nahi dala, jo 6.4% par mustahkam raha, bilkul experts ke forecasts ke mutabiq aur July se badla nahi.
Technical Analysis.
EUR/USD ka pair 1.0500 ke aas paas neeche aur 1.1200 ke aas paas ooper ka ek wide multi-year range mein phansa hua hai. Filhal, yeh range ke upper end ko chhu kar wapas retreat kar raha hai. "The trend is your friend" ke principle ke mutabiq, EUR/USD abhi ek sideways trend mein lagta hai, jo ke short, medium aur long term har significant period par dikh raha hai. Is liye, zyada imkaan yeh hai ke yeh trend qaim rahega aur is halat mein yeh pair dobara range ke lows ki taraf ja sakta hai. Ab prices downward trend shuru kar rahi hain. 1.1041 par yeh significant support tak pohanch gayi hain, jo ke 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ka red level hai, aur yeh girawat ko temporarily rok sakta hai. Agar yeh 50-day SMA, pichle up leg ki trendline, aur September 11 ke swing low 1.1002 ko torh deti hai, to yeh ek asal downward leg ka aghaz hoga. Agar prices 1.1000 ke neeche close karti hain, to yeh ek major bearish signal hoga. Uske baad ke hostile targets mein 200-day SMA at 1.0875, August 1 low at 1.0777, aur 1.0600 honge.

Is hafte EUR currency ke liye koi bara khabar release schedule nahi hai, is liye iska movement USD data par mabni hoga, jo ke is hafte kafi ziada release kiya ja raha hai. Magar, Monday aur Tuesday ko market mein koi bara khabar nahi tha. Market ka intezar FOMC Meeting Minutes ka hai, jo ke Wednesday ko ho gi, aur yeh USD ke movement ke liye is hafte ek ahem factor hoga. Yeh mumkin hai ke hafte ke shuru se Wednesday tak market USD ke bullish movement ko support karay, is liye hamein jaldi mein koi position open karne ki zaroorat nahi, balkay ek mazboot signal ka intezar karna chahiye. Digar khabron mein ziada focus inflation data par hai, jabke US aur duniya mein inflation kam ho rahi hai aur zyada control mein hai, is liye mere khayal mein inka market par koi khas asar nahi hoga. Daily basis par dekha jaye to yeh pair Purple EMA100 trend line par ruk gaya hai jo ke 1.0950 ke fresh demand area ke sath match kar raha hai, jo ke blue rang mein mark hai. Pehla reaction buyers ki taraf se hai jisme price ko bounce karne ka potential hai. Magar agar buyers ki taqat ziada nahi hui, to mere khayal mein price Red EMA200 ki taraf giray ga. Is upward correction ka potential ek re-entry sell setup bhi bana sakta hai, kyun ke kal ke closing candle ne thora lower BB ko penetrate kiya hai, jo dikhata hai ke sellers ki taqat mazboot hai aur abhi bhi dominate kar rahe hain. Buy option ab kiya ja sakta hai, magar limited profit target ke sath, jo ke yellow hidden supply ke ird gird hai jo ke 1.1011 ke price level par hai. Yeh yellow supply area ainday mein ek key level hoga, kyun ke agar isay penetrate kiya gaya to middle BB ki taraf barhawa aa sakta hai. H4 base par price action ka interesting tasveer nazar aa raha hai, jahan ek buy momentum candlestick bana hai, is liye price ke barhne ka potential hai aur yeh MA5/MA10 High H4 area mein re-entry sell setup banayega, jo ke green rectangle range mein hai 1.0982 - 1.1000 ke price par. Magar yeh correction middle BB se ooper tak bhi ja sakta hai agar M15 aur H1 bases mein baad mein buy momentum banay. Agar yeh CSM BUY form hota hai, to yeh green resistance automatically support ya RBS ban jaye ga, aur hum isay buy position ke liye use kar sakte hain agar price is ke upar rhta hai. Magar agar strong rejection aata hai, to price pehlay lower se bhi zyada gir sakta hai, kyun ke daily timeframe ki base par girne ka room abhi bhi khula hai Daily Red EMA200 tak jo ke 1.0900 ke price par hai.

n kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main short positions foran rebound par 1.1274 se kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, Click image for larger version

mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly

mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha jaari rahi toh dono targets achieve ho sakte hain. Chaliye ab hourly timeframe par nazar daalte hain.Dusri chart par H4 timeframe hai, lekin targets dekhne ke liye hum hourly buy signal par discussion karenge. Signal level 1.11446 par consider kiya ja raha hai. Is signal level se neeche aur stop-loss level se ooper jo bhi buy entries hoti hain, wo advantageous aur sahi buying points hain. Stop-loss level ko 1.10677 ke neeche consider kiya gaya hai. Target jo mention kiya gaya hai, wo 1.12209 hai. Agar hum signal level se ooper buying karte hain, toh risk-to-reward ratio 1 to 1 se kam ho jata hai, jo ke long-term mein profitable nahi hoga. Dosre lafzon mein, buying entry point aise select karna chahiye ke wo 1 to 1 ratio se neeche na ho. Agar 1 to 2 ratio achieve karna hai, toh buy entries 1.11187 se start karni chahiye. Aur agar 1 to 3 ratio achieve karna hai, toh entries 1.11038 se start karni hongi. Maine chart par grid aise set kiya hai ke wo ek ruler ki tarah lagta hai. Yani, 0.0% stop hai, 100% profit hai, aur 50% level signal level hai. Currency pair EUR/USD ne Thursday ke din low level 1.10680 se reversal le kar northwards move kiya. Abhi pair Bollinger Bands ke bullish zone mein 1.11625 ke level par hai. MACD histogram zero mark se ooper hai, aur RSI midline ke ooper hai. Agle hafte price ka mazid strong hona aur 261.8% level (1.13133) tak pohanchna expect kiya ja raha hai. EUR/USD apni taraf se barhkar saal ki unchi simat 1.1200 ke nazdeek pahuncha hai, jab ke US Dollar (USD) ko pressure ka saamna hai kyun ke China ke taraf se bada stimulus plans ka elan hua hai jo unki ma'ashi slowdown ke khataron se nikalne ke liye hai. Aam tor par, khushgawar market sentiment ke doran US Dollar mein investment flows kam hote hain.
China ke is bade stimulus ke ilawa, Federal Reserve (Fed) ke taraf se November mein bade rate cuts ki umeedon mein izafa ne bhi

EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Mera khatrah mol lene aur euro/dollar ki jodi ko farokht karne ka koi iradah nahin hai, kiyunkeh mujhe qarib mustaqbil me ek aham rally ki tawaqqo hai. Jo kuch baqi hai woh market me kamyabi se dakhil hone ki koshish karna hai. Meri nazar me, European currency ki islah ke hisse ke taur par pichli mandi ki lahar se wapsi ka imkan nahin hai. Aakhir kar, euro/dollar ka joda filhal 1.0985 ki satah ke qarib sideways trade kar raha hai. Is tarah ki ifqi harkat ke bad, qimat aam taur par us simt me mazbut raftar hasil karti hai jis simt me yah pahle trade kar raha tha, chahe hoda aakhir kar mukhalif simt me chala jaye. Lehaza, mai ummid karta hun keh euro/dollar ka joda ooper ki taraf palatne se pahle 1.0900 ke nishan tak gir jayega. Iske bad, euro ke 1.1000 se ooper badhne aur fir digar muzahmati satahon ki taraf badhne ka imkan hai.

Good afternoon to all Invest Social members! I hope you all are doing well and finding value in this analysis. Aaj main EUR/USD pair ke H4 time frame par kuch insights share karna chahta hoon, jisse mujhe lagta hai ke ek promising trading opportunity mil sakti hai. Filhal, EUR/USD mein strength ki nishaniyan nazar aa rahi hain, aur main recommend karunga ke ek buy order lagaya jaye jiska short-term target 1.1020 hai.

Yahan kuch technical aur fundamental factors hain jo is trading decision ko samajhne mein madadgar honge. EUR/USD ne haal hi mein halka sa upward trend dekha hai, aur H4 chart par hum dekh sakte hain ke price ek relatively stable range mein move kar rahi hai. Halankeh market mein kuch fluctuations dekhe gaye hain, lekin aisa lagta hai ke bulls dheere dheere control hasil kar rahe hain. Is wajah se, mujhe lagta hai ke pair ka target 1.1020 tak pahunch sakta hai. Ye target level ek key resistance point hai, aur agar price is level ko todne aur uspe sustain karne mein kamiyab hoti hai, toh ye medium term mein further upward movement ka indication de sakti hai.

Technical outlook ke ilawa, kuch fundamental factors bhi maujood hain. U.S. Unemployment Rate ek ahem economic indicator hai jo hamesha dekhne ki zaroorat hai. Ye metric mahine mein release hota hai aur U.S. labor market ki health ka snapshot provide karta hai. Agar unemployment rate expectations se zyada ho, toh ye economic weakness ka signal deta hai aur U.S. dollar ko major currencies, jaise euro, ke muqablay mein kamzor kar sakta hai. Isliye, agar aane wale data mein unemployment rate me izafa nazar aata hai, toh ye EUR/USD ko upar push karne ka catalyst ban sakta hai, hamari buy position ke liye support deta hai.

Dusri taraf, agar unemployment rate expectations se kam ho, toh ye dollar ko mazboot karega, jisse EUR/USD ka 1.1020 target tak pahunchna mushkil ho sakta hai. Yehi wajah hai ke traders ko aakhri economic releases se updated rehna chahiye aur is information ko analysis mein shamil karna chahiye. Iske ilawa, interest rate decisions, inflation data, aur geopolitical developments bhi EUR/USD ki price action par asar dal sakte hain, isliye ek wide range of variables monitor karna zaroori hai.

اکتوبر 8 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

کرنسی مارکیٹ آہستہ آہستہ پاول کی غیرمتوقع "شدید پن" اور امریکی روزگار کے مضبوط اعداد و شمار سے "دور" ہو رہی ہے۔ گزشتہ روز، ڈالر انڈیکس میں 0.03% کی کمی ہوئی، اور نومبر میں 0.25% کی شرح میں کٹوتی کا مارکیٹ امکان 93% سے کم ہو کر 81% ہو گیا، جب کہ شرح برقرار رکھنے کا امکان 7% سے بڑھ کر 19% ہو گیا۔ 5 سالہ امریکی حکومتی بانڈز کی پیداوار کل بڑھ کر 3.88% ہوگئی اور آج صبح 3.84% پر ہے۔



گزشتہ روز سٹاک مارکیٹ میں 0.96% (ایس. اینڈ. پی. 500) کی گراوٹ کے باوجود، ڈالر کو اب گراوٹ کی ایک نئی وجہ کا سامنا ہے — قریب آنے والا سمندری طوفان "ملٹن،" زمرہ 5 کا طوفان (اعلیٰ ترین سطح) بدھ تک فلوریڈا کے ساحل تک پہنچنے کی توقع ہے۔ ریاست کی بیشتر کاؤنٹیوں میں انخلاء کا اعلان کر دیا گیا ہے۔

ہم 1.1010 مزاحمت کے اوپر ایک پیش رفت اور 1.1076 کے بعد کے ہدف کی سطح کے ساتھ، مزید یورو نمو کی توقع کرتے ہیں۔ اس سطح کے اوپر استحکام اگلا ہدف 1.1186 پر کھولے گا۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر قیمت سے آگے بڑھ رہا ہے۔ یہ اس بات کی نشاندہی کر سکتا ہے کہ یہ قیمت کو قریب ترین مزاحمت سے اوپر لے جا رہا ہے، حالانکہ 1.1076 کی سطح سے اصلاحی پل بیک ممکن ہے کیونکہ اس وقت تک مارلن ممکنہ طور پر اوور بوٹ زون میں داخل ہو جائے گا۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

**EUR/USD: Key Patterns and Signals**

Hamari guftagu EUR/USD currency pair ki live pricing ko samajhne par hai. Pichlay hafte, sellers ne market par puri tarah se qabza jama liya tha, aur pehle hi yeh wazeh tha ke decline hone ka imkaan hai. MACD indicator par ek bearish divergence nazar aayi, jo ke ek mazboot sell opportunity ka ishara tha. Ek descending wedge pattern bhi pehchana gaya, aur doosray CCI indicator ne bhi ek similar bearish divergence dikhayi. Mukhtalif currency pairs ne yeh show kiya ke jaldi US dollar majboot hone wala hai. Halanki, decline expected tha, lekin main nahi samajh raha tha ke yeh itni jaldi hoga; main samjha tha ke isay do haftay lagayenge, magar sirf chand dino mein hi market ne September ke tamam gains ko wipe out kar diya aur previous lows ko update kar diya.

Lekin agar bears support levels 1.07900 aur 1.07650 tak ka minimal decline nahi kar pate, aur bullish buy level 1.11910 ka imkaan hota hai, toh outlook phir se growth ki taraf shift ho jayega. Aise halat mein, main apna sell position loss par close kar dunga aur buying ki taraf shift ho jaunga, jahan growth ke targets 1.13479, 1.14367, aur 1.15517 ke resistance levels par honge.

**EUR/USD Trade Insights:**

Is pair ke liye, main market ke open hone par downward movement 1.0910-20 range ki taraf dekhna pasand karta hoon. Aksar, ek upward pullback sell karne ka moqa de sakta hai. Monday ke din, is instrument ka trend short hai (margin system ke mutabiq), aur buying advisable nahi hai. Halankeh mujhe buy trade ka temptation hai, main is waqt buy nahi karunga. Raat 12 baje market open ko observe karne ka irada hai, lekin filhal mere thoughts thore disorganized hain. Main yeh yaqeenan keh sakta hoon ke main na ab buy karunga aur na sell current levels par. Main 1.1030 se sell order initiate karne ka plan bana raha hoon, jabke buying ka signal mujhe sirf 9th figure ke aghaz par milega. Mera target price ko kam kar ke apne minimal goal 1.0860 tak lana hai. Magar yeh sirf ek baseline target hai. Sach kahun toh, main ab margin system ke zariye trend ke direction mein trade karne par focus kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain ke cheezein kaise unfold hoti hain.

Friday ka din hamare EUR/USD currency pair ke liye ek bearish candle par close hua. 4-hour chart par yeh nazar aata hai ke price upper channel border se nikal gaya, aur maximum 1.1215 tak set kiya. Iske baad upward trend downward mein badal gaya aur price southern direction mein trade karne lagi. Price wapas channel mein aayi aur decline continue kiya. Price ne easily moving average line ko break kiya aur neeche ki taraf trade karne lagi. Lower border bhi break kar gayi. Friday ko ek naya minimum 1.0949 set kiya gaya. Monday ko main expect karta hoon ke price wapas channel mein aayegi. Lower border ab 1.1002 par hai. Phir main expect karta hoon ke price north ki taraf correction ke tor par jayegi. Average moving line ka test, jo ke ab 1.1118 par hai, mere liye samajhna aasaan hoga. Agar EUR/USD is moving line se rebound kare, toh pair ko sell kiya ja sakta hai, taake minimum ko update karte huay price neeche ki taraf ja sake.

**EUR/USD: Key Patterns aur Signals**

Hamari guftagu EUR/USD currency pair ke live pricing ko decode karne ke hawalay se hai. Guzishta haftay, sellers ne market par poori tarah qabza jama liya tha, aur pehle hi yeh baat zahir thi ke decline aane wala hai. MACD indicator par ek bearish divergence samnay aayi thi, jo ke ek solid sell ka mauqa tha. Aik descending wedge pattern bhi pehchana jaa sakta tha, aur doosra CCI indicator bhi milta julta bearish divergence dikhata tha. Aam tor par, kai currency pairs ne jald US dollar ki taqat ka ishara diya tha. Halankeh yeh decline expected tha, lekin mujhe is baat ki umeed nahi thi ke yeh itni jaldi unfold hoga. Main sochta tha ke isay do haftay lagain gay, lekin chand hi dino mein market ne September ke sab gains ko wipe out kar diya aur pehle ke lows ko update kar diya.

Agar bears support levels 1.07900 aur 1.07650 tak kam az kam decline lanay mein nakam ho jatay hain, toh phir bullish buy level 1.11910 ke aasaar ho sakte hain. Is surat mein, main apni sell position ko loss par close kar ke buying ki taraf move karunga, jahan growth targets resistance levels 1.13479, 1.14367, aur 1.15517 tak ho sakte hain.

**EUR/USD trading strategy** ke liye, main yeh dekhna pasand karunga ke market open hone par downward movement 1.0910-20 range ki taraf ho. Agar upward pullback hota hai, toh yeh selling ka ek mauqa ho sakta hai. Monday ke din is instrument ka trend short hai (margin system ke mutabiq), is liye buying ka mashwara nahi dunga. Halankeh mujhe buying ka jazba hai, lekin main filhal refraining kar raha hoon. Main raat ko market opening ka dekhna plan karta hoon, lekin abhi meri soch kuch uljhan mein hai. Main yeh faisla kar chuka hoon ke current levels par na buying karunga na selling.

Main sell order initiate karne ka plan 1.1030 se karunga, aur buying sirf 9th figure ke aghaz mein signal banayegi. Mera target hai ke price ko mere minimal goal 1.0860 tak reduce karoon. Yeh sirf ek baseline target hai. Sach baat yeh hai ke filhal main margin system ke zariye trend ke direction mein trading par focus rakhunga. Dekhte hain agay kya hota hai.

Friday ke din hamaray EUR/USD currency pair par bearish candle ka closure hua. Four-hour chart par yeh dikhaya gaya ke price ne upper channel border se upar jump lagaya, jahan maximum 1.1215 par set kiya gaya. Uske baad, upward trend ne downward shift kiya aur price southern direction mein trade karne lagi. Price wapas channel mein chali gayi aur decline continue rahi. Price ne asaani se average moving line ko break kiya aur neeche ki taraf trading mein rahi. Isne lower border ko bhi tor diya. Friday ko ek naya minimum 1.0949 par set kiya gaya. Monday ko mujhe umeed hai ke price wapas channel mein aa jayegi. Lower border ab 1.1002 par hai. Phir mujhe umeed hai ke price correction ke tor par north ki taraf jaayegi. Average moving line, jo ab 1.1118 par hai, uska test mere liye samajhne layak hoga. Jab is moving line se rebound hoga, toh EUR/USD ko sell kiya ja sakta hai taa ke price ko decrease karte hue minimum ko update kiya ja sake.