یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

اکتوبر 4 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

یورو نے یومیہ چارٹ پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے نیچے ٹوٹنے کے بعد کم از کم ہدف مکمل کر لیا ہے — اپنے نچلے سائے کے ساتھ 1.1010 کے ہدف کی سطح کو چھو رہا ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر مندی والے علاقے میں تھوڑا سا اوپر کی طرف مڑ رہا ہے۔ آج صبح تک، 1.1186 اور اس سے اوپر کی طرف الٹ جانے کے لیے تقریباً ایک مثالی لمحہ بن چکا ہے۔ تاہم، اگر یورو امریکی روزگار کے اعداد و شمار کے اجراء کے بعد کم ہوتا ہے، تو 1.0882 اور پھر 1.0777 کی طرف مزید کمی کا امکان تیزی سے بڑھ جائے گا۔



بدقسمتی سے، مارکیٹ کی گھبراہٹ کی موجودہ فضا میں، مضبوط یا کمزور ڈیٹا ریلیز کے بعد مارکیٹ کی سمت کا تعین کرنا مشکل ہے، کیونکہ سرمایہ کار مستقبل کی صورتحال کے بارے میں مختلف خیالات رکھتے ہیں۔ لہذا، ہم دونوں سمتوں میں مضبوط تحریکوں کو مسترد نہیں کر سکتے ہیں. تاہم، اہم منظر نامہ باقی ہے — ڈالر کی مضبوطی کی طرف طویل مدتی الٹ جانے سے پہلے ایک اور اوپر کی طرف ٹانگ بنانے کی ممکنہ کوشش۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن آسکیلیٹر بڑھ رہا ہے۔ مقامی صورت حال میں، یہ اوپر کی طرف منظر نامے کے امکان کی تصدیق کرتا ہے۔ 1.1076 سے اوپر کا وقفہ بھی روزانہ چارٹ پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن پر قابو پانے کے مساوی ہوگا۔ ہم آج کے بعد امریکی ڈیٹا پر مارکیٹ کے ردعمل کا انتظار کر رہے ہیں۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

analysis ki koshish ki. Yeh kaafi dilchaspi ka sabab tha kyun ke maine dekha ke raat ke market trend mein izafa hone ka mauqa phir se nazar aa raha hai. Yeh ek reversal signal hai jahan guzishta kuch dino mein market mein price movement asal mein sellers ke qabze mein thi jo ke neeche le jane ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke bearish koshish abhi bhi 1.1004 level se breakout karne mein nakaam rahi hai, jo is haftay support ke taur par istemal ho sakti hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar seller support area ko naheen tod pate, toh trend mein izafa hota rehne ke imkaanat hain Isliye, main ek puri trading plan banaonga taake yeh andaza laga sakuun ke kab price upar ki taraf harakat karna shuru karegi aur agla maqsad kya hoga H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Iske ilaawa, main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundary line ki madad bhi istemal kar raha hoon. H4 time frame ke chart par EURUSD ki price movement ne pehle ke bearish correction candlestick ki shape se reversal signal dikhaya hai. Hum daily timeframe mein monitor kar sakte hain ke guzishta hafte ke trading session mein buyers bullish trend ko continue na kar sake kyun ke sellers ke pressure ke waja se market correction ke liye neeche ki taraf chal gayi Is haftay ki bearish koshish asal mein abhi bhi jari hai, lekin guzishta Thursday ko achi buying interest ne candlestick ki position ko behtar banaya aur market ke liye bullish rally ka rasta khola, bilkul us trend ki tarah jo August ke aakhir mein tha. Phir stochastics ke saath mazeed analysis se yeh maloom hota hai ke signal line 80 zone tak barh gayi hai, jo market ke phir se izafa hone ke imkaanaat ka tasavvur deta hai. Buyers ke paas aaj bhi EURUSD ki prices ko barhane ke liye momentum mil sakta hai Maujooda market movement abhi bhi 1.1078 ke aas paas static hai. Main khud aaj dopahar se mazeed izafa ke signal ka intezaar kar raha hoon kyun ke abhi tak market transactions mein koi volatility nahi hui hai. Guzishta mahine se benchmark ke mutabiq, wahan par ek mustahkam izafa nazar aa raha hai jo neeche ki taraf corrections ke saath mix hai. Chahe market zyada bullish hi kyon na ho, main intezaar karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko breakout kar ke buy signal ko valid na bana le. Aaj ke

EUR/USD 1-ghante ke chart par bohot hi technical aur structured price movement nazar aata hai, jo supply aur demand zones, liquidity pools, aur fair value gaps (FVG) ke darmiyan complex interplay dikhata hai. Is waqt price 1.10782 ke aas-paas hai, aur yeh ek retracement mein hai jo 1.11500 ke ilaqe se significant rejection ke baad aayi, jo ek mazboot supply zone ke tor par kaam kar raha tha. Price action yeh darshata hai ke market participants, jo ke mumkin hai institutional traders ya market makers hon, actively liquidity hunt kar rahe the 1.11500 level ke upar, uske baad price ko neeche ki taraf push kiya, jo ke lagta hai ke ek strategic move tha long positions ko clear karne aur market mein balance restore karne ke liye.

1.11500 ke aas-paas ka ilaqa marked liquidity grab se milta hai, jo ye dikhata hai ke bade players ka yeh irada tha ke stop orders ko trigger karen aur distribution liquidity (DLiq) zone ke upar bade trades execute karen. Jab price is zone ke nazdeek pahuncha, to market mein buying pressure ka izafa hua, jab retail traders aur dusre market participants ne potential breakout ka faida uthana chaha. Lekin, yeh high liquidity area sellers ke liye ek acha mauka bana, kyunke stop-loss aur buy orders ki liquidity unke liye market ko neeche push karne ka attractive target bana.

Is rejection se pehle, market 1.11000 aur 1.10500 ke darmiyan ek tight range mein consolidate kar raha tha. Is doran, price demand aur supply zones ke darmiyan bounce ho rahi thi, jo strong directional bias ki kami ko darshata hai. Consolidation phase ne market ko liquidity ikattha karne ka mauka diya, khaaskar lower bound par 1.10500 par, jahan buyers shayad positions ikattha kar rahe the, aur upper bound par 1.11000 par, jahan sellers supply side ko defend kar rahe the. Is range mein price movement supply aur demand forces ke darmiyan equilibrium ko highlight karta hai, jo sirf achanak 1.11500 region tak spike se disrupt hua.

Is setup mein ek critical point fair value gap (FVG) ka formation hai jo 1.11250 ke aas-paas hai. Fair value gaps aksar traders dwara istemal kiye jate hain taake wo market mein inefficiency ke areas ko identify kar saken jahan price gap ko "fill" karne ke liye wapas aa sakti hai, jo rebalancing mechanism ke tor par kaam karta hai. 1.11250 ka gap jaldi fill ho gaya jab market ne apne pehle ke range se breakout karne ki koshish ki, jo yeh darshata hai ke market ab bhi balanced range mein kaam kar raha tha aur yeh breakout short term mein sustainable nahi tha. FVG ka fill hona yeh bhi suggest karta hai ke market participants cautious the, kyunke ek true breakout ke liye demand ya supply se stronger impulse ki zaroorat hoti hai.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD


EUR/USD abhi 1.1000 ke upar ehtiyaat se trade kar raha hai jab ke tawajju US NFP ki taraf hai. US ISM Service Prices Paid mein tezi se izafa ne mehngai ke daron ke barqarar rehne ke khauf ko dobarah jagaya hai. ECB ke Schnabel Eurozone mein barhte hue maashi khatron par pareshani ka izhar karte hain.

EUR/USD Friday ki European session mein 1.1000 ke psychological support ke upar ek tang range mein trade kar raha hai. Ye major currency pair 1.1030 ke qareeb consolidate kar raha hai, jab ke US Dollar (USD) US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report se pehle thoda neeche ja raha hai, jo ke 12:30 GMT par publish hogi.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki qeemat ko chhe major currencies ke muqablay mein track karta hai, halka sa gir kar 101.80 par aa gaya hai. Lekin, ye is hafte ki tezi se recovery ko barqarar rakhta hai jo saal ke low ke qareeb 100.10 par hui thi.

Investors US NFP report par nazar rakhenge kyunki ye Federal Reserve (Fed) ki policy easing ki raftar par asar daal sakta hai agle maheenon ke liye. Economists ka andaza hai ke US employers ne 140,000 naye mulazim bharti kiye, jo ke August mein 142,000 se thoda kam hai. Be rozgari ki shanakht ka dar 4.2% par barqarar rehne ki umeed hai.

Average Hourly Earnings ka andaza hai ke ye 0.3% mahine dar mahine ke hisaab se barhengi, jab ke August mein ye 0.4% thi, saal bhar ke figures 3.8% se barqarar rahne ki umeed hai.

CME FedWatch tool ko dekhte hue, traders ne pehle hi November ke liye Fed rate cut ki umeedon ko adjust kar liya hai. 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing data dikhata hai ke November mein 50 basis points (bps) ka mazeed cut hone ki probability 33% tak gir gayi hai, jab ke pichle hafte ye 53% thi. November ke liye bade rate cuts ki umeed ADP Employment Change data aur JOLTS Job Openings data ke behtar hone ke baad bohot zyada kam ho gayi hai.

Is darmiyan, mehngai ke barqarar rehne ke khatron ne bhi traders ko Fed ke bade rate cut bets ko ghatane par majboor kiya hai. Thursday ke ISM Services PMI report ne dikhaya ke is ka component Prices Paid – jo input costs mein tabdeeli ko darust karta hai – taajub bhari tezi se 59.4 par barh gaya. Services PMI – jo service sector ki activities ko gauge karta hai aur jo ke economy ka do-taihai hissa hai – bohot behtar raftar se 54.9 par barh gaya, jab ke iski andazay 51.7 aur August ki reading 51.5 thi.

### EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD abhi psychological support 1.1000 ke qareeb kuch peechay hai. Is major currency pair ka near-term outlook kamzor hota ja raha hai kyunki ye 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke thoda neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke lagbhag 1.1043 par hai.

Yeh shared currency pair daily chart par Rising Channel pattern ka breakout barqarar rakhta hai, jo August ke teesre hafte mein hua tha. Agar pair is pattern ki upper line ke neeche girta hai, toh ek nayi downside nazar aa sakti hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40.00 ke aas-paas gir gaya hai, jo ke momentum ke kamzor hone ka ishaara hai.

Neeche dekhte hue, agar price 1.1000 ke neeche girti hai, toh yeh 200-day EMA ki taraf mazeed girawat ko janm degi, jo lagbhag 1.0900 par hai. Upar ki taraf, 20-day EMA jo 1.1090 par hai aur September ka high jo 1.1200 ke aas-paas hai, major resistance zones honge.

Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karn

EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halanki

T E C H N I C A L _ A N A L Y S I S
E U R / U S D

Salam dosto, aaj aap sab ka waqt dene ke liye shukriya. Aaj ka main topic EUR/USD pair ka technical analysis hai. EUR/USD ki price is waqt 1.1030 ke aas-paas chal rahi hai. Yeh pair abhi ek choti si range mein trade kar raha hai. Agar aap EUR/USD ka pattern dekhte hain, to yeh mumkin hai ke Monday ko EUR/USD baar baar upar ki taraf badhe. Is liye, mujhe lagta hai ke buy ka option abhi bhi EUR/USD ke liye qeemti hai.

EUR/USD ke sellers ko haal hi mein ek stable Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur dheere dheere aage barhne se tease kiya gaya hai. Saath hi, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator negative level ke thoda neeche trade kar raha hai. EUR/USD ka 50-EMA aur 20-EMA ke upar lagataar trade karna bullish bias ko support kar sakta hai. EUR/USD ke liye foran resistance level 1.1276 hai. Agar buying pressure barhta hai, to prices near-term resistance zone 1.1805 ko test kar sakti hain.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD in Roman Urdu:

Jab is hurdle ko paar kiya jata hai, to bulls 1.2284 mein long-term reversible correction hurdle ko target kar sakte hain, jo ke resistance ka 3rd level hai. Ek aur scenario yeh hai ke price reverse ho sakti hai aur 1.0665 support ko dobara test karna shuru kar sakti hai. Is waqt, is time frame mein, 1.0665 par foran support dusri line of defense ke taur par kaam kar sakta hai agar pair neeche ki taraf reverse hota hai.

Uske baad, agar EUR/USD ki price girti hai aur 1.0195 ke zone ko paar kar leti hai, to growth option mumkin nahi rahegi. Is surat mein, hum 0.9666 tak ke decline ka intezar kar sakte hain. Mujhe lagta hai ke yeh traders ke liye EUR/USD ke baare mein sochne ka waqt hai. Maine bohot se articles padhe hain aur videos dekhi hain jo batate hain ke is saal EUR/USD kitna important hai.

Chart mein istemal hone wale indicators:

• MACD Indicator:
• RSI Indicator (Period 14):
• 50-day Exponential Moving Average (Color: Orange):
• 20-day Exponential Moving Average (Color: Magenta):

pehle lagta tha ke sellers ka downward pressure hai jisse candlestick 1.1087 area tak gir gayi. Lekin, bearish situation last week ke aakhir tak nahi rahi kyun ke buying volume kaafi barh gaya, jisse price dobara shuruati haftay ke opening zone mein wapas aa gayi. Is upward trend ke aage barhne ki potential abhi bhi hai, jo weekly low area se door hoti ja rahi hai. Ye is baat ki tasdeeq karti hai ke buyers market ko apne qabze mein le rahe hain jabke sellers pehle price ko neeche dhakelne mein nakam rahe. Ab inka target qareebi support level tak pahunchna hai. Lekin agar ye support level tor diya gaya, toh ho sakta hai ke price aur neeche jaaye, mazid strong support level tak. Aakhir mein trading ke dauran, price ne apna dynamic barhaya aur qareebi resistance level 1.1182 ko cross kar liya, jisse 1.1246 area mein naya resistance level bana. Ye ek mazboot evidence hai ke buyers abhi market ko fully control kar rahe hain. H4 time frame chart ko dekh kar maloom hota hai ke pehle ka price increase pichlay haftay ke high area ko cross kar chuka hai, aur buyers ne is momentum ka faida uthaya hai price ko aur upar push karne ke liye. 5.3.3 stochastic indicator abhi bhi price increase ka signal de raha hai. Abhi price ek resistance area mein hai jo jald support ban sakti hai, aur candlestick upar ki taraf move kar rahi hai. Ye buyers ki dominance ko zahir karta hai, aur bohot zyada chances hain ke price resistance level ko break karke aur upar jaye, jo ke bullish trend ke mustaqbil ka taayun karegi. Agar ye level successfully break ho jata hai, toh price ke aur upar bullish target level tak jaane ke chances hain. Is technical analysis ki base par, EURUSD currency pair ke liye bullish trend ko follow karna ek achha option

EUR/USD currency pair abhi apni recent kamyabi ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kar rahi hai. Do din tak positive movement ke baad, yeh pair US session ke dauran ek narrow trading band mein oscillate kar rahi hai. Abhi ke liye spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level ke thoda upar hain aur lagbhag unchanged hain jabke dealers US ki ahem economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD takriban 1.1140 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai. Aage dekhte hue, Euro ke bulls ka focus kuch ahem resistance levels par hai, jisme 1.1200 ka recent high aur July 2023 ka 1.1276 peak shamil hain. Doosri taraf, 1.1100 ka psychological support level neeche ki taraf movement ke khilaf ek barrier ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance near-term mein pair ki performance ke liye ihtiyat pasand optimism ko zahir karta hai.

### EUR/USD ke Fundamentals
Haal hi mein aaye data ne Eurozone ki economic challenges ko ujagar kiya hai, khaaskar uski do bari economies mein. Germany ki industrial production mein July mein 2.4% ki significant girawat aayi, jo expected sirf 0.3% decline ke muqable mein thi. France ne bhi ek downtrend report kiya, jisme industrial output 0.5% se kam hui. Yeh disappointing numbers bearish outlook ko faroogh dete hain, jaise ke Reuters ke ek survey mein dikhaya gaya jo August 30 se September 5 tak conduct hua, jisme 85% economists ne anticipate kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) aane wale meetings mein interest rate cuts apply karegi.

In economic challenges ko madde nazar rakhte hue, kai ECB officials market ke potential interest rate cuts ke hawale se comfortable nazar aa rahe hain. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek interview mein is khauf ka izhar kiya ke "ECB ka stance bohat zyada restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh jazba Eurozone ki economic situation par badhne wali fikr ko zahir karta hai aur monetary policy mein ek shift ke imkaan ko faroogh deta hai.

### Continual Time Frame Technical Outlook
1.1150 level ke upar earnings ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook ihtiyaat ke saath optimistic lag raha hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke paas support establish kiya hai, jo ke lagbhag 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikhate hain, jo future growth ka imkaan zahir karta hai. Iske ilawa, currency pair hourly chart par Rising Channel mein apni position barqarar rakhti hai, jo positive momentum ko zahir karta hai.

Technical indicators EUR/USD ke liye ek mixed picture paint karte hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 mark ke neeche aa gaya hai, jabke is se pehle yeh overbought status par 75.00 ke kareeb tha. Yeh decline is baat ka ishara karta hai ke momentum thanda ho sakta hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ke hawale se apni positions dobara assess karne par majboor kar sakta hai

EUR/USD currency pair abhi apni recent kamyabi ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kar rahi hai. Do din tak positive movement ke baad, yeh pair US session ke dauran ek narrow trading band mein oscillate kar rahi hai. Abhi ke liye spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level ke thoda upar hain aur lagbhag unchanged hain jabke dealers US ki ahem economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD takriban 1.1140 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai. Aage dekhte hue, Euro ke bulls ka focus kuch ahem resistance levels par hai, jisme 1.1200 ka recent high aur July 2023 ka 1.1276 peak shamil hain. Doosri taraf, 1.1100 ka psychological support level neeche ki taraf movement ke khilaf ek barrier ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance near-term mein pair ki performance ke liye ihtiyat pasand optimism ko zahir karta hai.

### EUR/USD ke Fundamentals
Haal hi mein aaye data ne Eurozone ki economic challenges ko ujagar kiya hai, khaaskar uski do bari economies mein. Germany ki industrial production mein July mein 2.4% ki significant girawat aayi, jo expected sirf 0.3% decline ke muqable mein thi. France ne bhi ek downtrend report kiya, jisme industrial output 0.5% se kam hui. Yeh disappointing numbers bearish outlook ko faroogh dete hain, jaise ke Reuters ke ek survey mein dikhaya gaya jo August 30 se September 5 tak conduct hua, jisme 85% economists ne anticipate kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) aane wale meetings mein interest rate cuts apply karegi.

In economic challenges ko madde nazar rakhte hue, kai ECB officials market ke potential interest rate cuts ke hawale se comfortable nazar aa rahe hain. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek interview mein is khauf ka izhar kiya ke "ECB ka stance bohat zyada restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh jazba Eurozone ki economic situation par badhne wali fikr ko zahir karta hai aur monetary policy mein ek shift ke imkaan ko faroogh deta hai.

### Continual Time Frame Technical Outlook
1.1150 level ke upar earnings ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook ihtiyaat ke saath optimistic lag raha hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke paas support establish kiya hai, jo ke lagbhag 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikhate hain, jo future growth ka imkaan zahir karta hai. Iske ilawa, currency pair hourly chart par Rising Channel mein apni position barqarar rakhti hai, jo positive momentum ko zahir karta hai.

Technical indicators EUR/USD ke liye ek mixed picture paint karte hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 mark ke neeche aa gaya hai, jabke is se pehle yeh overbought status par 75.00 ke kareeb tha. Yeh decline is baat ka ishara karta hai ke momentum thanda ho sakta hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ke hawale se apni positions dobara assess karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

# EUR/USD Ki Haaliyat

**Spot Price Ka Halat**

Spot price ki girawat European Central Bank (ECB) ke monetary policy faislay se pehle roka gaya, jo 1.1009 par dainik low tak pahuncha, lekin baad mein 1.1050 ke aas-paas laut aaya. Is pair par ek aham asar yeh raha ke money market futures traders ki umeedain Federal Reserve (Fed) ke aane wale rate cut ke hawale se tabdeel hui hain. 50 basis points (bps) cut ki sambhavna 40% se ghat kar 15% tak a gayi hai, jabke 25 bps cut ki sambhavna 66% se barh kar 85% tak pahunchi hai. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD 1.1034 ke ilaake mein trade kar raha hai.

**Monetary Policy Ka Asar**

ECB ke monetary policy faislay ke nazdeek, market ke hissedaron ki nazar kisi bhi aindah rate hikes ya dovish moves par hai. Iske ilawa, Fed ka interest rates ke hawale se guidence bhi US Dollar ke liye market sentiment ko tay karegi. Investors ehtiyaat se kaam le rahe hain jab tak dono central banks se koi naya update nahi milta, jo EUR/USD pair ki direction mein aham tabdeeliyan la sakta hai.

**Fundamentals**

US Dollar (USD) par dabao hai kyunki US Treasury yields ne girawat ka silsila jari rakha hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo USD ki qeemat ko chhe bade currencies ke muqablay mein track karta hai, apni teen din ki jeet ka silsila roka aur ab 101.80 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Is waqt, 2-year aur 10-year US Treasury bonds ki yields 3.57% aur 3.62% hain, jo USD ke liye narm jazbat ko darshata hai jab markets ongoing economic data par react karte hain.

**Eurozone Ka Halat**

Europe ke hawale se, Euro (EUR) ne German inflation data ke nikalne ke baad girawat dekhi. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) ne August mein 2.0% ka saal dar saal izafa darshaya, jo market ki umeedon ke mutabiq hai. Mahine ka index bhi 0.2% ki girawat dikhata hai, jo pehle se hi andaza laga gaya tha. Consumer Price Index (CPI) August mein 1.9% par stable raha, jo market ke liye koi naya surprise nahi tha, lekin Eurozone ke sabse bade ma’ashi dakhle ka izafa dekhta hai.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook**

3 October ka low 1.1007 pair ke liye pehla support level hai, jabke agla aham support 1.1047 par hai, jahan 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hai. Agar pair in levels se niche jata hai, to yeh 1.1021 ka mark, jo 3 September ka low hai, ko test kar sakta hai. Ek aur girawat se yeh 1.0983 par trend channel ke lower limit ko test kar sakta hai. In khataron ke bawajood, bullish momentum barh raha hai, aur pair ki sambhavana hai ke yeh 1.1276 tak rally kare, jabke major support 1.0971 par hai.

**Technical Analysis**

Price abhi tak daily chart par descending trend channel ke neeche hai. Lekin, outlook behtar hai kyunki pair key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se upar trade kar raha hai, jo ongoing upward momentum ko darshata hai. Iske ilawa, Relative Strength Index (RSI) midline se upar hai 63.65 par, jo darshata hai ke aasaan raasta upar ki taraf hai. Yeh factors aane wale waqt mein mazeed faida ka mauqa darshate hain.

Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, lekin Greenback ke bearish sentiment Euro ko madad de sakta hai
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**T E C H N I C A L _ A N A L Y S I S
E U R / U S D**

Salam dosto, aaj aap sab ka waqt dene ke liye shukriya. Aaj ka main topic EUR/USD pair ka technical analysis hai. EUR/USD ki price is waqt 1.1030 ke aas-paas chal rahi hai. Yeh pair abhi ek choti si range mein trade kar raha hai. Agar aap EUR/USD ka pattern dekhte hain, to yeh mumkin hai ke Monday ko EUR/USD baar baar upar ki taraf badhe. Is liye, mujhe lagta hai ke buy ka option abhi bhi EUR/USD ke liye qeemti hai.

EUR/USD ke sellers ko haal hi mein ek stable Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur dheere dheere aage barhne se tease kiya gaya hai. Saath hi, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator negative level ke thoda neeche trade kar raha hai. EUR/USD ka 50-EMA aur 20-EMA ke upar lagataar trade karna bullish bias ko support kar sakta hai. EUR/USD ke liye foran resistance level 1.1276 hai. Agar buying pressure barhta hai, to prices near-term resistance zone 1.1805 ko test kar sakti hain.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis in Roman Urdu:

Jab is hurdle ko paar kiya jata hai, to bulls 1.2284 mein long-term reversible correction hurdle ko target kar sakte hain, jo ke resistance ka 3rd level hai. Ek aur scenario yeh hai ke price reverse ho sakti hai aur 1.0665 support ko dobara test karna shuru kar sakti hai.

Is waqt, 1.0665 par foran support dusri line of defense ke taur par kaam kar sakta hai agar pair neeche ki taraf reverse hota hai. Uske baad, agar EUR/USD ki price girti hai aur 1.0195 ke zone ko paar kar leti hai, to growth ka option mumkin nahi rahega. Is surat mein, hum 0.9666 tak ke decline ka intezar kar sakte hain.

Mujhe lagta hai ke yeh traders ke liye EUR/USD ke baare mein sochne ka waqt hai. Maine bohot se articles padhe hain aur videos dekhi hain jo batate hain ke is saal EUR/USD kitna important hai.

Chart mein istemal hone wale indicators:

• MACD Indicator:
• RSI Indicator (Period 14):
• 50-day Exponential Moving Average (Color: Orange):
• 20-day Exponential Moving Average (Color: Magenta):

Hum filhal EUR/USD currency pair ki price behavior analysis par ek dilchasp guftagu kar rahe hain. August 27 ke peak ke qareeb resistance area ka ek "false" breakout dekha gaya. Aise false breakouts aksar ulte rukh ki taraf, shayad neeche ki taraf, movement ka sabab bante hain, jo agle sessions mein dekhne ko mil sakta hai. False breakout tab hota hai jab bade market players aur sellers ke paas counter-liquidity nahi hoti jo consequential orders ko support kar sake. Jab zone se breakout hota hai, to wahan rakhi gayi orders—mainly buy-stop aur market-buy orders—trigger hoti hain. Isliye, jab aap "false" breakout dekhte hain, to reversal ki umeed rakhna behtar hai. Agar aaj ka low toota, to 1.1096 level ki taraf rasta khulega aur phir EMA 200 par 1.1066 tak bhi ja sakta hai. Lekin yeh is baat par depend karta hai ke aaj ka low kitna mumkin hai. Pair EMA 50 se rebound karne ki koshish kar raha hai aur is moving average ke upar trading resume karne ki koshish kar raha hai.

EUR/USD ke chart ko dekhte hue, aaj ek bullish scenario ubhar raha hai. Maujooda price 1.1113 hai, aur bullish momentum taqat pakar raha hai jab kharidaar market mein apni dominance dikhate hain. Bulls apni taqat mein izafa kar rahe hain, jo ek strong upward trend ka ishara hai. Yeh surge yeh darshata hai ke aane wale ghante EUR/USD pair ke liye pivotal ho sakte hain.

Agar bullish trend jari rahta hai, to yeh kaafi mumkin hai ke price jald hi 1.1145 resistance level ko test kare. Yeh level ek crucial threshold hai jo agar tooti, to bullish outlook ko aur validate kar sakta hai aur potential gains ka darwaza khol sakta hai.

Is scenario mein, investors ko un technical pehluon ka khayal rakhna chahiye jo market movement ko influence karte hain. Technical tools jaise moving averages, trend lines, aur momentum indicators istemal karna valuable insights de sakta hai aur informed trading decisions mein madadgar ho sakta hai. Yeh tools key support aur resistance levels ko identify karne, current trend ki taqat ko assess karne, aur potential reversals ya continuations ko anticipate karne mein madad karte hain. Apne account ka sahi management karna bohot zaroori hai, khaaskar volatile environment mein jahan price movements rapid aur significant ho sakte hain.

EUR/USD ka price recap kuch yun hai ke abhi ke liye is currency pair ka mid-term trend shift hona thoda jaldi lagta hai. Aaj kal ka daily uptrend kareeb 1.0999 ya is se thoda neeche hover kar raha hai. Jab tak yeh trend line break nahi hoti, upward momentum qayam reh sakti hai. Lekin ek waqt ke baad sellers market mein aa ke medium-term trend ko neeche le aayenge. Ek corrective rebound ka imkaan hai. Iske bawajood, kuch analysts ka kehna hai ke yeh pair last year ki high 1.1274 ko break karega aur apni growth jari rakhega.

Non-farm payrolls mein growth dekhnay ko milay gi, jis ka matlab yeh hai ke pair afternoon mein rise kar sakta hai jab traders U.S. employment results ke positive hone ka intezar karenge. Agar aisa hota hai, to correction Asian ya European sessions ke dauran mukhtasir ho sakta hai. Is scenario mein, aap dollars khareedne ya news ka intezar kar ke market ke reaction ke mutabiq trade kar sakte hain.



Meri weekly chart pe, yeh pair ek resistance zone se nikal raha hai jahan yeh kareeb ek saal se zyada stuck tha. Is liye, meri medium-term outlook suggest karti hai ke decline 1.0599 ki taraf ho sakta hai. Short-term mein, Asian aur early European markets yeh pair ko 1.0999 ki taraf sell kar sakti hain. Buyers, khaaskar ECB meeting se pehle wale, is level par wapas aa sakte hain. Aaj ka kamzor economic data bhi dollar par kuch pressure daal sakta hai.

Kal ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers ka release bhi dollar ke liye negative ho sakta hai. Is wajah se hum 1.1069 ke aas paas ek corrective rise dekh sakte hain, aur agar yeh level hit hota hai, to further growth 1.1119 tak ja sakti hai. Friday ke Non-Farm Payroll report ka outcome zyadah clarity dega. Ek correction 1.1109 tak aa sakta hai us se pehle ke downtrend wapas shuru ho. Kal, U.S. employment data release se pehle, pair ki price mein slight drop dekhne ko mil sakta hai, lekin abhi bhi uncertainty hai.