Eurusd forum

EUR/USD Currency Pair ka Halat:

EUR/USD currency pair filhal apni haal ki gains ko barhane mein struggle kar raha hai. Do din ke positive movement ke baad, yeh pair US session ke doran ek narrow trading band mein oscillate kar raha hai. Filhal, spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level ke thoda upar hain, aur yeh lagbhag unchanged hain jab traders US se aane wale crucial economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD 1.1140 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

Aage dekhte hue, Euro bulls key resistance levels par nazar rakh rahe hain, jismein recent high 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1276 critical targets hain. Dusri taraf, psychological support level 1.1100 kisi bhi downward movement ke khilaf cushion provide karne ki umeed hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance pair ke near-term performance ke liye cautious optimism ko darshata hai.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

Recent data Eurozone mein ongoing economic difficulties ko highlight karta hai, khaaskar iske do bade economies mein. Germany ki industrial production July mein 2.4% month-over-month ki kami ke sath gir gayi, jabke expected decline sirf 0.3% thi. France ne bhi downturn report kiya, jahan industrial output 0.5% se giri. Yeh disappointing figures bearish outlook ka sabab bani hain, jaise ke ek Reuters poll se saaf hai jismein 30 August se 5 September ke beech 85% economists ne expect kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) agle meetings mein interest rate cuts implement karega.

In economic struggles ke chalte, kai ECB officials market speculation se khush nazar aate hain jo potential interest rate cuts ke gird ghoom raha hai. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek recent interview mein chinta ka izhar kiya, yeh kehte hue ke "koi asal khatar hai ke [ECB] ka stance bohot restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh sentiment Eurozone ki economic trajectory ke baare mein badhti hui unease ko darshata hai aur monetary policy mein badlav ki sambhavana ko highlight karta hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

1.1150 level par gains maintain karne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook cautiously optimistic hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas support establish kiya hai, jo 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikha rahe hain, jo future growth ka potential darshata hai. Iske saath, currency pair hourly chart par ek Rising Channel mein apni position banaye rakha hai, jo positive momentum ko indicate karta hai.

Technical indicators EUR/USD pair ke liye mixed picture pesh kar rahe hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 ke niche chala gaya hai, jabke yeh pehle 75.00 ke aas-paas overbought status par tha. Yeh kami momentum mein potential cooling off ko darshati hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ko dekhte hue apne positions ko dobara assess karne par majboor kar sakti hai.

EUR/USD 1.1150 se upar qaim hai, jab ke Thursday ko yeh positive territory mein band hua. Qareeb ke doran ke technical nazariyat yeh darust karte hain ke bullish potential ab bhi barqarar hai. Agar kisi aala darja ka data nahi aata, to investors risk perception mein tabdeeli par react kar sakte hain.

EUR/USD ne bullish momentum hasil kiya, jo Thursday ko 0.4% ka izafa kiya. Yeh jo Friday subah kuch zyada upar trading kar raha hai, 1.1150 ke upar. US dollar (USD) ne Thursday ko US session ke shuruat par thoda jump kiya jab US Labor Department ki taraf se data release hua.

Is data ne dikhaya ke weekly Initial Jobless Claims 231,000 se gir kar 219,000 ho gaye. Lekin jab risk flows ne financial market ki harkaat ko dominate kiya, to dollar dobara bearish pressure mein aa gaya, jo EUR/USD ko upar jane ka mauqa diya.

Aaj, US economic calendar par kisi aala darja ka data nahi hai. Baad mein, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ke President Patrick Harker, jo FOMC ke non-voting member hain, ek taqreer dene wale hain.

Is ke ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ki President Christine Lagarde 2024 mein Michel Camdessus Lecture on Central Banking mein bolne wali hain. Kai ECB policymakers ne kaha hai ke woh December tak intezar karna chahte hain taake mazeed data hasil kar sakein, phir key interest rate ko phir se kam karne ka faisla karein.

Halankeh yeh bohot naummeed nahi hai, agar Lagarde October mein rate cut ka darwaza khula chhodti hain to euro apne rivals ke muqablay mein kamzor ho sakta hai. Is dauran, U.S. stock index futures aaj thode se neeche trade kar rahe hain jab ke Wall Street ke major indexes ne Thursday ko behtareen izafa kiya.

Agar din ke dusre hisson mein continued upside risk dekha gaya to yeh USD ko aur neecha kheench sakta hai aur EUR/USD ko weekend tak aur upar le ja sakta hai.

EUR/USD Market Forecast

Salam aur Good Morning sab darshakon ko!

ECB ke President ka taqreer EUR/USD ke kharidaron ki madad kar sakta hai taake wo 1.1165 zone ko paar kar sakein. Lekin, US dollar ke liye aane wali khabrein itni achi nahi thi aur kharidaron ne is kamzor dollar ka faida achi tarah nahi uthaya. Yeh kamzor dollar aam tor par doosri badi currencies ki qeemat ko barhata hai aur financial markets mein risk lene ki bhavna ko badha sakta hai, kyunki kam interest rates udhaar lena sasta kar dete hain aur zyada risky assets mein investment ko encourage karte hain. Equities, khaaskar technology aur real estate ke sectors, zyada dovish outlook se faida utha sakte hain, jabke bond market mein yields mein kami aane ka imkaan hai.

EUR/USD traders ke liye zaroori hai ke wo flexible rahein aur badalte huye market environment ke hisaab se apne aap ko tayyar karein. Jabke technical analysis price trends, support aur resistance levels, aur historical market behavior ke bare mein ahem insights de sakta hai, fundamental analysis bhi zaroori hai jab baat broader economic context ki ho. Harker ka taqreer ek behtareen misaal hai ke kaise fundamental factors—jaise monetary policy aur economic indicators—market movements ko drive karte hain. Wo traders jo technical aur fundamental analysis dono mein mahir hain, wo behtar faislay lene, risk manage karne, aur market ke mauqon ka faida uthane ke liye tayar hote hain. Umeed hai ke EUR/USD ka market 1.1165 ke resistance zone ko paar kar sakega.

Yeh bhi yaad rahe ke Harker ka taqreer is hafte mein US dollar ke liye aakhri ahm khabar hai, jo iski ahmiyat ko aur barha deta hai. Kai traders is taqreer ko weekend ke liye market movements ka potential catalyst samajhte hain. Trading ke liye, mujhe umeed hai ke EUR/USD ke kharidaar is market mein achi tarah survive kar sakte hain.

Khush rahiye aur mehfooz rahiye!

Hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. 4-hour chart par dekhain to bears apni positions mazbooti se barqarar rakhe hue hain, aur lagta hai ke filhaal wapas janay ka koi iraada nahi. Price 1.1068 par 25% support ko break kar chuki hai aur ab 1/1 angle ke upar hai. Mera khayal hai ke bears is level ko target karenge. Main yeh bhi maan raha hoon ke ek temporary upward correction ho sakta hai. EMA (13/5) aur MACD indicators sell ka ishara de rahe hain, jo ke yeh dikhata hai ke consolidation ke baad ek bearish move ho sakta hai. Indicators yeh batate hain ke exchange rate ghat kar 1.0999 tak ja sakta hai recent breakdown ke baad. Koi significant tabdeeli nazar nahi aa rahi; euro abhi bhi sideways trade kar raha hai, jo ek choti red body wali candle se zahir hai.
Wednesday ko EUR/USD pair mein kaafi calm trading thi, halanke U.S. inflation report ko "super-important" samjha ja raha tha. Humne weekend par is report ko "event of the week" kaha tha, magar kuch traders ka reaction hairan kun tha. Mukhtasir mein, dollar bara halanke inflation 2.5% tak gir gayi thi. Pehle har dafa U.S. inflation ke reports se dollar girta tha, chahe report forecast ke baraks hoti ya na hoti, bas inflation girne se dollar bhi girta. Magar kal ek naya waqia dekhne ko mila jo shayad dollar ke do saal ke decline ka end ho sakta hai. Market ne U.S. currency ko kharidna shuru kar diya, halanke inflation 2.5% par aa gayi thi. Pehle se hum yeh keh rahe the ke jab inflation target level ke qareeb aaegi, to Federal Reserve apni monetary policy ko loosen karne ka soch sakta hai. Yeh August ke end mein hua, magar ab paradox yeh hai ke market pichle do saalon se Fed ke rate cuts ko price kar rahi thi. Shayad market ne is factor ko fully price kar liya hai, aur ab inflation ke target ke qareeb honay ke bawajood, Fed ke reasons honge ke woh rates ko ek dafa nahi, balki poori policy easing cycle shuru kar sake. Magar market ne is baat ko pehle hi price kar liya hai.

EUR/USD Currency Pair ka Halat

EUR/USD currency pair filhal apni haali ki kamiyabi par aage barhne mein pareshani ka samna kar raha hai. Do din ki musbat harkat ke baad, yeh pair Friday ko US session mein ek tang trading band mein ghoom raha hai. Abhi spot prices 1.1180 ke ahm level se thoda upar hain, jabke traders US se aane wale ahem ma’ashi data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD 1.1140 ke ird gird trade kar raha hai.

Aage dekha jaye toh Euro ke bulls ahem resistance levels par nazar rakhte hain, jahan haal ka high 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1276 ahem maqasid hain. Dusri taraf, psychological support level 1.1100 koi girawat se bachne ke liye madadgar samjha jata hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance pair ki haalat ke liye ehtiyaat bhari umeed ko darshata hai.

EUR/USD ke Buniyadi Asraat

Haal ke data ne Eurozone mein chalu ma’ashi mushkilat ko ujagar kiya hai, khaaskar iske do baree ma’ashi mulkon mein. Germany ki industrial production July mein maheenewar 2.4% gir gayi, jabke sirf 0.3% ki kami ki umeed thi. France ne bhi is halaat ka samna kiya, jahan industrial output 0.5% tak giri. Yeh nafrat bhare figures bearish outlook ko darshate hain, jaisa ke Reuters ke ek poll ne dikhaya jahan 85% economists ne ECB se umeed ki hai ke woh aane wale meetings mein interest rate cuts kar sakta hai.

In ma’ashi mushkilat ke baad, kayi ECB officials aaj kal ki market speculation se pur sukoon nazar aate hain. ECB ke Executive Board ke rukun Piero Cipollone ne ek interview mein kaha, "Yeh ek asal khatar hai ke [ECB] ka rawaya bohot restrict ho sakta hai." Yeh jazba Eurozone ki ma’ashi soorat-e-haal par badti hui fikr ko darshata hai aur monetary policy mein tabdeeli ka potential ko ujagar karta hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook

1.1150 ke level par gains ko barkarar rakhne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka nazar aane wala halaat ehtiyaat bhari umeed par hai. Yeh pair 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke ird gird support establish kar chuka hai, jo ke 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, lambi muddat ke indicators jese 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo ke 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upar ki taraf ja rahe hain, jo future growth ka potential darshata hai. Saath hi, yeh currency pair hourly chart par ek Rising Channel mein apni jaga banaye hue hai, jo musbat momentum ko darshata hai.




Technical Indicators

Technical indicators EUR/USD pair ke liye mixed picture darshate hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 ke niche aa gaya hai jabke yeh pehle 75.00 ke ird gird overbought status mein tha. Yeh kami momentum mein thoda cooling off ko darshati hai, jo traders ko aane wale ma’ashi data aur market developments ke nazar mein apne positions ko dobarah dekhne par majboor karti hai.

EURUSD Pair Ka Technical Analysis




4-ghante ke chart par, EURUSD ka daam sideway price channels mein trading shuru kar raha hai, jo pichle do hafton ka price movement trend dikhata hai. Aaj din ki shuruat par price ko weekly pivot level se support mila, jo ke upper channel line aur weekly resistance level 1.1116 tak pahuncha, jo ab tooti hui hai. Is se upward trend ka signal milta hai jo is hafte pura ho sakta hai.

Is waqt, price ke channel lines ke upar stabilize hone ki umeed hai, jisse wo weekly resistance level 1.1158 tak pahunche. Yeh price ko tooti hui channels ko dobara test karne par majboor kar sakta hai, aur phir upar ki taraf ja kar resistance level 1.1215 tak pahuncha sakta hai.

Economic taraf se, European Central Bank ne pichle Thursday ko apne meeting mein interest rates ko 25 basis points se cut kar diya, jo ke pehle se hi expect kiya ja raha tha. Mazboot trading platforms ke mutabiq, currency fluctuations low rahe aur euro ne pound sterling aur US dollar ke muqable mein thoda stabilize hone mein kamiyabi hasil ki. Is hafte ki trading shuru hone par, euro US dollar ke muqable mein 1.1100 resistance ke aas paas aur upar stable raha, jab ke US dollar ne dusri major currencies ke muqable mein girawat dekhi, jo US interest rate cut ki tareekh se pehle hui.

European Central Bank ki taraf se koi mazboot guidance nahi di gayi, lekin yeh samjha ja raha hai ke saal ke end tak aur cuts aayenge, kyun ke economic expectations kam growth aur low inflation ki taraf ishaara karti hain. Financial markets pichle Thursday ko relatively stable rahe, jab ke US inflation ke release ke baad Wednesday ko volatility dekhi gayi. Is wajah se stock markets mein tez izafa hua, S&P 500 pehle 1.5% se zyada gir gaya, lekin baad mein sharp reversal karke 1% upar band hua. Is doran, US dollar thoda sa barh gaya jab ke agle hafte ke liye 50 basis point Fed cut hone ki probability sirf 11% reh gayi.

EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halanki

EUR/USD ke movement par jo analysis kiya gaya hai, us main dekha ja raha hai ke euro ne 1.1150 ka level cross kar liya hai jab US dollar weak hua, specially Federal Reserve ke rate cut ke baad. Market mein expectation hai ke agay aur bhi easing measures ho sakti hain, jo euro ko mazeed strength de rahi hai against the dollar. Is waqt jo major resistance level hai wo 1.12 par hai, aur agar yeh level break hota hai to hum aur bhi gains dekh sakte hain. Support zone abhi 1.1075 aur 1.1125 ke darmiyan hai. Agar aap trading karna chahtay hain to yeh level bohot important hain.
DXY USD Index, jo US dollar ko track karta hai, wo 100.70 ke neeche aa gaya hai jab wo apnay weekly high 101.50 ko hold nahi kar saka. Federal Reserve ne apni lending rate ko 50 basis points se cut kar diya hai, jo ab 4.75%-5.00% range mein aa gayi hai. Yeh decision dikhata hai ke policymakers labor market ko support karna chahte hain aur unko inflation ke 2% target ke baray mein confidence hai. Euro zone se aane walay inflation data ne European Central Bank ko bhi support diya hai ke wo apni rate-cutting cycle ko dheere dheere continue kar sakein, jo EUR/USD ko aur upar le ja sakta hai. EUR/USD ke overall trend main abhi tak koi tabdeeli nahi aayi. Upward movement abhi bhi dominant hai, aur mazeed growth ka potential hai jab tak 1.1151 ka critical level breach nahi hota. Is waqt pair narrow range main 1.1100 ke upar trade kar raha hai, lekin kuch pressure ki wajah se price bearish ho sakti hai. Yeh development achi hai, kyun ke ek significant pullback hamesha trading ke liye acha hota hai. Lekin dollar ka impact aaj bohot aham rahega, khas tor par Federal Reserve ke actions ke baad. Market kisi bhi direction main move kar sakta hai, aur yeh narrow range shaayad upcoming news ka pehla signal ho. Powell ki remarks bhi next move par important asar dalenge.
Despite is uncertainty ke, mera outlook bullish hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke price upar jaayegi. Lekin agar price 1.111 ke neeche girti hai, khaaskar 1.1051 region tak, to main buying ka sochunga un levels par.

EUR/USD ka girna ab ruk sakta hai aaj ke US CPI inflation data aur Thursday ke European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate faislay se pehle, chahe is ne haal hi mein mushkilat ka samna kiya ho aur Eurozone ke itnay achay data nahi aaye. US dollar CPI report se pehle thora kamzor ho gaya jab polls ne dikhaya ke Harris ne pehle presidential debate mein Trump ko outperform kiya. EUR/USD ne wapis bounce back kiya jabke usne hafte ka aghaz kamzor surat mein kiya, jab Friday ka dip dekha gaya, lekin US jobs ke kamzor news bhi US dollar ko aur zyada girane ke liye kaafi nahi the.
Haal hi mein EUR/USD kyun mushkilat ka shikar raha?

Is hafte ke economic calendar ke shuruat mein aram ne dollar ko takreeban tamam badi currencies ke khilaf kuch support dila diya, siwaye yen ke, jisne EUR/USD par niche ka dabao dala. Ye Friday ke girawat ke baad hua jab latest US employment data ne Fed ke employment mein kamzori ke khauf ko tasdeeq kiya.

Fed ke chairman ne pehle hi August mein yeh confirm kar diya tha ke September se interest rates mein kami aayegi, is liye jobs report itni kamzor nahi thi ke investors ko 50 basis point cut ka andaza ho. Is wajah se dollar mein halki recovery hui. Friday ki soft jobs report ne rate markets mein pehle to halchal machai, lekin phir sentiment aur ehtiyat par shift ho gaya, aur aglay FOMC meeting ke liye 25 basis point cut ki umeed barh gayi.

Lekin ab umeedain barh rahi hain ke is saal ke baad aur aglay saal ke shuruat mein aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ho sakte hain, khaaskar ek Fed official ne “frontloading” ko kam karne ka mashwara diya hai. Lekin US ke kamzor data, girti hui oil prices, aur dovish Fed turn ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka forecast abhi bhi thora bullish hai jab tak ke is hafte ke aane wale macro events mein koi bara surprise na ho. Hum baat kar rahe hain aaj ke latest US inflation report aur kal ke ECB ke rate faislay ki. Pichlay hafte ke jobs data ke baad, mein abhi bhi CPI release se pehle dollar ke bare mein bearish hun. Market rate cut ki size par tafreeq mein hai, aur koi clear consensus nahi hai. Fed, jo aglay hafte apni meeting mein dollar ko ziada hilne se rokna chahta hai, umeed kar raha hoga ke is hafte ka inflation data market uncertainty ko settle karne mein madadgar hoga.

Jabke US CPI Fed ke target ke qareeb aa raha hai, Powell pehle hi is baat ka ishara de chuke hain ke September 18 FOMC meeting mein rate cuts ka tasdeeq karenge. Ye CPI report is meeting se pehle aakhri bara data point hoga jo policymakers ko guide karega ke 50 basis point cut karna hai ya aam 25 basis point ke sath rehna hai.

Is liye, yeh report kafi tawajju hasil kar sakti hai, khaaskar agar numbers expectations se kaafi alag niklay. Inflation chaar mahine tak silsilewar slow hui hai, aur July mein 2.9% year-on-year tak pohanch gayi, jo March 2021 ke baad sab se kam hai. Umeed ki ja rahi hai ke August mein yeh mazeed kam hoke 2.6% ho jayegi, jabke core CPI ko 3.2% par stable rehne ki umeed hai year-on-year comparison mein.

ECB ka rate faisla kafi bara hoga. Ab tak, analysts is baat par mutafiq lag rahe hain ke ECB eurozone ki kamzor economy ke jawab mein rate cuts mein taizi nahi karega. June mein 25 basis points cut ke baad, umeed hai ke ECB Thursday ko ek aur aisi cut announce karega.

Pichlay trading week mein euro mein further downfall dekhne ko mili, aur price reversal levels ke kareeb thi, lekin week ke end par price ne dobara rise karna shuru kiya. Pehlay price 1.1033 ke neeche gir gayi thi jo ek reversal ko indicate karti thi, lekin phir sharp recovery hui aur price 1.1121 ke level tak wapas aayi. Is tarah se expected sustainable development scenario achieve nahi ho saka, lekin target territory abhi bhi active hai. Price chart ab ek trend area se doosray trend area mein move kar raha hai, jo trend uncertainty ko highlight karta hai.
Aaj ka technical analysis agar dekha jaye, toh 4-hour chart se yeh maloom hota hai ke pair psychological resistance barrier 1.1100 ke neeche settle ho gaya hai, aur 50-day simple moving average ke kareeb aa kar additional strength le raha hai. Dosri taraf, 14-day momentum indicator abhi bhi positive signals de raha hai, jo short term mein ek uptrend ko support kar raha hai. Price ab 1.1100 ke psychological resistance barrier ke upar stabilize ho chuki hai, jo short-term mein pair ko targets 1.1130 se shuru karti hai aur 1.1165 tak le jaa sakti hai. Agar pair 1.1040 ke neeche roll back karti hai, toh price correction ke saath 1.0990 aur 1.0950 tak gir sakti hai. Chart ko neeche dekha ja sakta hai. Pair is waqt slightly weekly high ke upar trade kar raha hai. Key support area intense stress mein tha aur lagbhag break ho gaya tha, lekin last moment pe quotes wapas aaye aur current growth vector ko maintain kar liya. Growth ko continue karne ke liye price ko confidently 1.1121 ke upar consolidate karna hoga, jo main support area ka border hai. Agar is area ka successful retest ho jata hai aur rebound milta hai, toh nayi movement ki opportunity milegi with a target between 1.1283 and 1.1373. Agar price 1.1033 ke pivot level ke neeche girti hai, toh current scenario cancel ho jayega

EUR/USD 1.1150 se upar qaim hai, jab ke Thursday ko yeh positive territory mein band hua. Qareeb ke doran ke technical nazariyat yeh darust karte hain ke bullish potential ab bhi barqarar hai. Agar kisi aala darja ka data nahi aata, to investors risk perception mein tabdeeli par react kar sakte hain.
EUR/USD ne bullish momentum hasil kiya, jo Thursday ko 0.4% ka izafa kiya. Yeh jo Friday subah kuch zyada upar trading kar raha hai, 1.1150 ke upar. US dollar (USD) ne Thursday ko US session ke shuruat par thoda jump kiya jab US Labor Department ki taraf se data release hua.

Is data ne dikhaya ke weekly Initial Jobless Claims 231,000 se gir kar 219,000 ho gaye. Lekin jab risk flows ne financial market ki harkaat ko dominate kiya, to dollar dobara bearish pressure mein aa gaya, jo EUR/USD ko upar jane ka mauqa diya.

Aaj, US economic calendar par kisi aala darja ka data nahi hai. Baad mein, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ke President Patrick Harker, jo FOMC ke non-voting member hain, ek taqreer dene wale hain.

Is ke ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ki President Christine Lagarde 2024 mein Michel Camdessus Lecture on Central Banking mein bolne wali hain. Kai ECB policymakers ne kaha hai ke woh December tak intezar karna chahte hain taake mazeed data hasil kar sakein, phir key interest rate ko phir se kam karne ka faisla karein.

Halankeh yeh bohot naummeed nahi hai, agar Lagarde October mein rate cut ka darwaza khula chhodti hain to euro apne rivals ke muqablay mein kamzor ho sakta hai. Is dauran, U.S. stock index futures aaj thode se neeche trade kar rahe hain jab ke Wall Street ke major indexes ne Thursday ko behtareen izafa kiya.

Agar din ke dusre hisson mein continued upside risk dekha gaya to yeh USD ko aur neecha kheench sakta hai aur EUR/USD ko weekend tak aur upar le ja sakta hai.

Maqala: EUR/USD Trading Strategy

Meri subah ki forecast mein, maine 1.1117 level par tawajjo di thi aur is par trading decisions banane ka plan kiya tha. Ab chaliye 5-minute chart ko dekhte hain aur samajhte hain ke kya hua. 1.1117 ke aas-paas ek kami aur false breakout ne euro ke liye buy signal diya, jis ke natije mein jor 25 points se zyada barh gaya. Ab hum din ke doosray hisse ke liye technical picture ko dobarah dekhte hain.

EUR/USD par Long Positions Khulne ke Liye:

Jaise ke umeed thi, euro ne ZEW institute ke Germany aur Eurozone se kamzor data ki wajah se kami ka jawab diya, jis ne jor ki upar ki potential ko rok diya. Din ke doosray hise mein, U.S. economy se mutaliq kuch zyada dilchasp aur aham statistics aane ki umeed hai. Hum August ke retail sales volume ka tabdeel hona, industrial production, aur manufacturing output ke figures dekh rahe hain. FOMC ki member Lorie K. Logan ka taqreer itna dilchasp nahi hoga, kyunki wo future rate prospects par nahi baat karengi. Agar bohot mazboot data aata hai aur bearish reaction hota hai, to mujhe umeed hai ke buyers 1.1117 ke support level par wapas aayenge, jahan pehla hissa achha raha. Wahan ek false breakout sab kuch tayar karega long positions ke liye, bullish trend ko 1.1150 ke aas-paas recovery ki taraf barhata hai, jo ke pichle hafte ka high hai. Is range par breakout aur upar consolidation hone par jor barhega aur 1.1176 ka test hone ka moka milega. Aakhri target 1.1199 hoga, jahan main profits le loonga. Agar EUR/USD girta hai aur din ke doosray hise mein 1.1117 ke aas-paas koi activity nahi hoti, to pair par pressure barh jayega, jo badi sell-off ka sabab banega. Is surat mein, main sirf tab enter karunga jab 1.1097 ke aas-paas ek false breakout banta hai, jahan moving averages thodi upar hain. Main 1.1074 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan bana raha hoon, i

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD ka technical analysis kafi dilchasp hai. Agar hum aaj ke din ki price movement par ghaur karein, to yeh wazeh hai ke is pair mein abhi bhi upar janay ka potential hai. H1 timeframe par dekha jaye, to yeh clearly nazar aa raha hai ke price EMA50 ko break karne ki koshish kar raha hai, aur abhi price is level ke upar hai, lekin abhi tak poori tarah se is important area ko cross nahi kiya. Agar price EMA50 ke upar hai, to buyers ko phir bhi alert rehna chahiye, kyun ke H1 oscillator pehle overbought zone mein tha, aur is wajah se ek reversal ka chance ab bhi maujood hai. Bollinger Bands indicator ko Daily timeframe par dekhte hue, yeh dikhai deta hai ke price wapis buyers ke control mein hai. Buyers ne price ko wapis Middle Bollinger Bands ke upar le aaya hai, jo bullish candlestick banata hai aur yeh signal karta hai ke market abhi bhi buyer ko support kar raha hai, taake price ko aur bhi upar le jaya ja sake. Agle target mein seller's supply resistance area shamil hai, jo ab tak sellers ne maintain kiya hai. Agar buyers ne resistance area ko tor diya, to EUR/USD pair ki price aur bhi upar soar kar sakti hai.



Abhi pair 1.10 tak drop kar sakta hai, aur agar yeh level hold karta hai, to pair 1.0961 tak aur neeche ja sakta hai. Yeh decline recent gains ko reverse kar sakta hai jo Fed rate expectations ki wajah se aaye the. Halaankeh ECB bhi rates mein further cut karne wala hai, lekin is cut ka impact Fed ki tezi ke muqable mein dheema raha hai. Upturn ka ek key driver kal ka U.S. job vacancies report ho sakta hai; agar previous number 8.18 million se 8 million ya is se kam hota hai, to yeh significant hoga. Bullish outlook ke liye EUR/USD ko 1.1071 ko break karna hoga, jo aaj ka peak hai. Agar recovery hoti hai, to pair 1.11 ya is se bhi upar ja sakta hai. Mein is pair ko closely monitor kar raha hoon jab yeh ek possible bottom ke qareeb hai. 1.0951 ka support strong hai, uske baad 1.0931 ka level aata hai. 1.10 ka level bhi significant hai, lekin 1.0987 ka relevance abhi clear nahi hai. Price mein bullish weakness nazar aa rahi hai aur yeh local bearish trend ko follow kar rahi hai.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS UPDATES

EUR/USD ki technical analysis par agar nazar daali jaye to aaj ke doran yeh pair abhi bhi upar janay ka mauqa rakhta hai. Agar H1 timeframe par dekha jaye, to yeh wazeh hai ke current price EMA50 ko torne ki koshish kar raha hai, aur filhal price EMA50 ke upar hai, lekin abhi tak is important area ko mukammal tor nahi paya. Agar price EMA50 ke upar hai to buyers ko ehtiyat karna chahiye ke kisi waqt reversal ho sakta hai kyun ke H1 oscillator pehle hi overbought condition mein tha. Iske ilawa, price phir se decline kar sakta hai jaise pehle hua tha.



Daily timeframe par Bollinger bands indicator se monitor karne par yeh dekhne ko milta hai ke price buyers ke control mein hai, jinhon ne price ko wapas Middle Bollinger bands area ke upar la diya hai. Yeh ek bullish candlestick formation ka izhar karta hai jo market ke buyers ko support de raha hai ke price ko upar le kar jaa sakein. Agla target seller ke supply resistance area ka hai jo ab tak sellers ne barqarar rakha hua hai. Agar buyer ne resistance area ko break kar liya, to EUR/USD pair ka price aur bhi ziada upar bullish ho sakta hai.

Pair 1.10 tak gir sakta hai, aur agar yeh level hold karta hai, to pair 1.0961 tak ja sakta hai. Yeh decline recent gains ko mita sakta hai jo Fed rate expectations ki wajah se aaye the. Halankeh ECB bhi rate cut kar raha hai, lekin decline Fed ki sharp movements ke muqable mein dheema raha hai. Ek possible upturn ke liye, U.S. ka kal ka job vacancies report bohat important hoga. Pichla number 8.18 million tha, aur agar yeh 8 million ya usse kam ho gaya to significant hoga. Bullish outlook ke liye, EUR/USD ko 1.1071 ko break karna hoga, jo aaj ka peak hai. Agar recovery hui to pair 1.11 ya usse upar push ho sakta hai. Main pair ko monitor kar raha hoon jab yeh possible bottom ke qareeb aata hai. 1.0951 ka support strong hai, uske baad 1.0931 hai. 1.10 ka level bhi significant hai, lekin 1.0987 ki relevance ab tak wazeh nahi hui. Price bullish weakness dikhata hai aur local bearish trend follow kar raha hai.

Euro aur US dollar ka rate 1.1150 ke upar selling pressure mein aa gaya Friday ki North American trading session ke dauran. Jab US dollar ne rebound kiya, toh major currency gir gayi. US dollar index (DXY), jo US dollar ko 6 major currencies ke muqablay mein check karta hai, takreeban 101.00 ke kareeb barh gaya. Lekin jabke interest rates ko aggressively cut karne ka faisla hua aur market ka rujhan bhi aggressive hai, toh US dollar ka overall outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai. Federal Reserve ne interest rates ko 50 basis points (bps) se cut kiya, kyunke policymakers ka focus ab labor market ki taqat par hai, jabke inflation rate bank ke 2% target tak gir gayi hai. Interest rate guidance ke hawalay se, latest inscription charts ke mutabiq, Fed policymakers expect karte hain ke federal funds rate iss saal ke aakhir tak 4.4% tak barhega. Lekin, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, traders ye expect karte hain ke rate 75 bps se barh ke 4.00%-4.25% tak jaayega. Friday ko New York session ke dauran, euro ne 1.1150 ke upar rehne ki koshish ki. Kyunke 20-day moving average (EMA) 1.1088 ke kareeb hai, currency pair ka final outlook optimistic nazar aa raha hai. Euro ne apni taqat ko barqarar rakha hai jabke daily frame mein psychological support level 1.1000 ko retest karte huay recover kiya hai. RSI (Relative Strength Index) ab 60.00 ke upar chala gaya hai, jo agar iss level ke upar rehta hai toh momentum barhne ka chance barh jata hai. Agar upar dekhein, toh 1.1200 ka resistance Euro ke liye ek bara obstacle ban sakta hai. Agar yeh level decisively break ho jata hai, toh asset ko 1.1276 tak boost milne ka imkaan hai jo ke July 2023 ka level tha. Agle support ke tor pe, psychological price 1.1000 aur July 17 ka high point ek bara support area hoga.