Eurusd forum

EUR/USD currency pair main kafi zyada izafa hone ke baad, ab phir se girawat dekhi gayi hai. Yeh girawat us waqt shuru hui jab price 1.1163 tak pohanchi, aur ab EUR/USD ki position 1.1164 par hai, jo ke takreeban 40 pips ki girawat ko zahir karta hai. Yeh girawat is wajah se hui ke price 1.1221 par mojood supply area ko breach nahi kar saki, jis se retracement ka samna karna para.

H1 timeframe par agar 1.1252 ko analyze karain to, halaan ke EUR/USD mein girawat aayi hai, lekin candle ab bhi resistance level 1.1164 ke upar hai. Is se yeh andaza lagaya ja sakta hai ke EUR/USD phir se barh sakti hai. Magar, wahan par RBS (Resistance Become Support) pattern bhi bana hai jo ke EUR/USD ko mazeed upar le ja sakta hai. Phir bhi, agar price 1.1221 ke supply area ko breach nahi kar sakti, to EUR/USD ke girne ke chances ab bhi hain. Is liye behtar yeh hoga ke RBS area tootne ka intezar karen taake yeh tasdeeq ho sake ke girawat mazeed hogi. Agla maqsood support level 1.1104 par ho sakta hai.

Ichimoku indicator ka istemal karte hue, dekha gaya hai ke recent girawat ne Tenkan-sen aur Kijun-sen lines ko intersect karwaya hai, jo ke uptrend se downtrend ki taraf rujhan ko zahir karta hai. Aaj ke liye, Ichimoku indicator yeh direction de raha hai ke EUR/USD aur zyada gir sakti hai, kyun ke pehle kafi izafa ho chuka hai. Magar, candle abhi tak Kumo cloud ko breach nahi kar saki, jo ke zyada mazboot bearish trend ki tasdeeq ke liye zaroori hai.

Stochastic indicator filhal neutral position mein hai, na to oversold aur na hi overbought condition ko zahir kar raha hai. Lekin, overall analysis se lagta hai ke EUR/USD overbought hai. Agar price RBS area par hold kare, to thori si barh sakti hai. Agar Stochastic line 80 level ko breach kare, to girawat ka samna karna par sakta hai.

Natija yeh hai ke EUR/USD currency pair ke mazeed girne ke chances hain, khas tor par is wajah se ke yeh 1.1221 par supply area ko breach nahi kar saki. Ichimoku indicator bhi bearish outlook ko support kar raha hai, Tenkan-sen aur Kijun-sen lines ke cross hone ke sath. Is liye, main yeh suggest karta hoon ke sell positions par focus karain, jahan target 1.0947 par qareebi support aur stop loss 1.1209 par resistance level par rakha ja sakta hai.

EUR/USD market ka safar iss mahine ke aghaz se hi bullish hai. Eur/Usd pair ka safar 4-hour time frame trading chart aur daily chart par ek upward pattern ke formation se dominated nazar aata hai. Yeh lagta hai ke price ki situation wohi upward wave ko follow kar rahi hai jo pehle se chal rahi thi, yaani pichle July ke trading period se. Last night's trading main sellers ne prices ko dabaane ki koshish ki thi, jiss se price gir kar 1.1097 area ko touch kar gaya tha, lekin agle din buyers ka control aa gaya aur bearish trend delay ho gaya. Pichle kuch dinon main price main drastic increase dekha gaya aur market opening zone bhi cross kar gaya.
Technically dekha jaye toh Uptrend ko continue karne ka mauqa ab bhi kaafi wazeh hai agle kuch dinon ke liye. Meri rai main, agle trading plan ke liye Buy position dhoondhna zyada behtar hoga. Jab tak journal update hota hai, candlestick ab bhi bullish hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke buyers ke taraf se prices ko aur barhane ki koshish ki ja rahi hai. Lekin, bhale hi trend ab tak up hai, humein yaad rakhna chahiye ke kabhi bhi downward move aa sakta hai, jese ke pichle mahine main hua tha. Weekend par market situation ke andaz nahi lagaya ja sakta kyun ke kabhi kabhi unexpected surprises aa jate hain jo ke loss ka sabab ban sakte hain.

Aakhri kuch ghanton main market conditions ka agar jaiza liya jaye, toh graph se saaf pata chalta hai ke ek Uptrend chal raha hai. 4-hour time frame main Aud/Usd pair ka safar bullish momentum main hai, jahan hum dekh sakte hain ke pattern oopar ki taraf move kar raha hai, aur simple moving average zone 100 ko cross karne ka mauqa hai. Candlestick ka position 1.1128 zone ke aas paas chal raha hai jo ke mere khayal main is baat ka signal hai ke market trend buyer control main hai, jis se bearish trials delay ho rahe hain. Iss liye behtar yeh hoga ke focus bullish market journey par hi rakha jaye

hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior par baat aur analysis kar rahe hain. Main daily chart ko zoom out karunga taake long-term sideways channel ko highlight kar saku, jo ke monthly support aur resistance zones ke darmiyan hai. Hum is range mein ek saal se zyada arsay se trade kar rahe hain, aur mera primary target monthly resistance zone ki upper boundary hai. Aane wala movement is baat par depend karta hai ke hum is area ko kaise navigate karte hain—ya toh hum is sideways channel ke andar downward trading algorithm develop karenge, ya phir is zone ke upar break karke bullish trend ko continue karenge. Lekin, yeh sirf meri raye hai. Agle hafte critical EU ka inflation data EUR/USD exchange rate par asar daalega. Forecast ke mutabiq monthly inflation rate 0.1% hai jo ke koi bara market reaction trigger nahi karega, kyunke yeh European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate ko kam karne ke plans ko mutasir nahi karega.
Buyers ne umeed se zyada achi performance dikhayi. Bullish momentum sirf tab mazid strong hota jab predictions 1.10 par hoti, aur maximum move December ke high 1.1139 tak hoti. Khabaron ki wajah se kuch pullbacks ke bawajood, EUR/USD pair ne bullish direction ko wapas hasil kar liya. Aap theek thay twelfth figure ke baray mein, halaan ke move utni tezi se nahi hui jitni kuch logon ne umeed ki thi. Jab ke euro ne thore bearish pullbacks kiye, dollar struggling position mein hai aur lagbhag sabhi currencies ke muqable mein ground lose kar raha hai, siwai kuch cross pairs ke. Bulls ne confidently 1.1049 ko weekly time frame par break kiya hai, aur yeh kam hai ke bears foran price ko neeche push karenge. Situation kafi dramatic tor par badal gayi hai, aur July 2023 ka high 1.1269 ab qareeb hai. Halaanki, bears asani se surrender nahi karenge, lekin phir bhi main is possibility ko consider karta hoon. Agar bulls market opening par tezi se twelfth figure tak pohanch gaye bina momentum lose kiye, toh hum seedha 1.1269 tak move dekh sak hain.

EURUSD dusre din ke liye niche trade kar rahi hai aur blue moving average ke neeche wapas aa gayi hai chaar ghante ke chart par, jo ke continued decline ka ishara hai, aur support 1.0877 par mil raha hai. Is measure par poora bharosa nahi hai. Indicators already bohot strong oversold conditions dikhate hain, aur bulls ke market mein wapas aane ki possibility ko nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Isliye, agar quotes 1.0877 level ke neeche rehti hain, to main downward trend ke continue hone ki ummeed karta hoon. Doosri scenario ko bhi nahi bhoolna chahiye, agar quotes 1.0927 resistance ke upar wapas aati hain, to main long-term rise aur ek aur uchaai ki ummeed karta hoon. EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.
Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge.
Iske ilawa, technical analysis ke context mein, yeh scenario naye participants ko bhi attract kar sakta hai jo pehle cautious ya bullish trend ke confirmation ka wait kar rahe the. In technical indicators ka alignment unhe confirmation data hai, jo ek stronger conviction offer karta hai ke uptrend sustainable hai. Yeh increased participation bullish momentum ko further fuel kar sakta hai, jise naye buyers existing upward pressure ko add karte hain.
Summary yeh hai ke price ka 100-period SMA ke upar hona weekly chart par, aur positive oscillator readings ke sath, currency pair ke liye strong bullish momentum ka indication hai. Yeh technical setup yeh darshata hai ke upward pressure likely hai ke continue rahega, kyunki yeh price action aur momentum indicators dono ke sath well-supported trend ko reflect karta hai. Traders aur investors isse bullish signal ke roop mein dekhenge, jo continued buying aur near term mein further price appreciation ki taraf le ja sakta h

Technical Analysis: Euro Dollar Pair

US Federal Reserve ki last meeting ki minutes ka announcement hone se pehle, euro US dollar ke khilaf EUR/USD price apne recent gains ko maintain kar raha hai, resistance level 1.1130 par, jo 2024 mein currency pair ki highest level hai. Iske gains US dollar ki other major currencies ke khilaf decline ke beech mein aaye hain. Lekin, stock trading platforms ke mutabiq, European stock indices apne early gains ko maintain nahi kar sake aur Tuesday ko lower close kar diya, unke recent gains ko halt kar diya lekin global stock sell-off se broad recovery ko maintain karte hue, jabki markets economic recession ke risks aur future credit costs par uske impact ko gauge karte rahe.

Stoxx 50 index euro zone mein 0.3% ki decline ke saath 4856 par close hua, aur Stoxx 600 index all European shares ke liye 0.5% ki decline ke saath 512 par close hua, energy aur metals producers ke heavy weight se pressure mein. Eurozone ke heavyweights UniCredit, Nordea aur Santander sabhi 2.3% aur 1% ke beech mein gir gaye. Energy producers bhi sharply gir gaye, TotalEnergies aur ENI 1.5% aur 1% respectively gir gaye.

Data front par, German producer prices 13-month low par aa gaye, diminishing base effects ke beech mein. EUR/USD agar eurozone PMI data is week confirm karde ki economy improve ho rahi hai, to higher ja sakti hai, HSBC ke mutabiq. "Agar last week US aur UK ke liye big data week thi, to is week eurozone ke liye big data week hai," HSBC ke senior emerging markets FX strategist Clyde Wardle ne kaha. "Eurozone PMIs Thursday ko UK aur US ke saath important honge."




US dollar side of the equation bhi equally important hai, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ke speech par strong focus ke saath. "Powell widely expected hai ki September rate cut announce karega apne appearance mein Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium par Friday. Yields weaker hain aur US dollar falling hai week ke start mein, traders bet kar rahe hain ki Fed chairman continued shift ko acknowledge karega US economy ke risks facing mein, suggesting ki restrictive policy settings ab nahi appropriate hain, easing decision ko open karne ke liye," analysts ne kaha. Lekin, US dollar rebound kar sakta hai agar market Powell ke baare mein disappointed ho jaye. Powell unlikely hai ki US central bank ko more aggressive easing path par set kare sustained evidence ke bina renewed growth aur employment ke

EUR/USD Currency Pair ki Jaiza

EUR/USD currency pair, jo 1.11168 par trade kar raha hai, bearish trend ka shikar hai. Yeh trend gradual decline ka shikar hai, jo broader market sentiments ko economic aur geopolitical factors se influence karta hai. Is slow movement ke bawajood, kuch reasons hain jo is baat ko darshate hain ki coming days mein significant shift ho sakta hai.

*Current Bearish Trend ki Jaiza*

EUR/USD pair mein bearish trend ko kuch factors se attribute kiya ja sakta hai, jaise ECB aur Fed ke divergent monetary policies, economic data releases, aur geopolitical uncertainties. ECB ne monetary tightening mein cautious approach adopt kiya hai, jabki Fed ne inflation ko combat karne ke liye interest rates ko raise karna shuru kar diya hai. Is divergence ne U.S. dollar ko stronger bana diya hai, jis se euro par downward pressure aaya hai.

*Big Movement ke Potential Triggers*

Current bearish trend ke bawajood, kuch potential triggers hain jo EUR/USD pair mein significant movement ko lead kar sakte hain:

1. *ECB Policy Changes*: Agar ECB rising inflationary pressures ke response mein more hawkish stance adopt karta hai, to yeh euro ki fortunes ko reverse kar sakta hai. ECB ke aggressive rate hikes ko consider karne ki koi indication euro ko boost kar sakti hai aur pair mein sharp movement ko cause kar sakti hai.

2. *U.S. Economic Data*: U.S. se key economic data releases, jaise non-farm payrolls, inflation reports, aur GDP figures, dollar ki strength ko impact kar sakte hain. Agar data weaker than expected aata hai, to yeh dollar ki depreciation ko lead kar sakta hai aur EUR/USD pair mein corresponding rise ko cause kar sakta hai.

3. *Geopolitical Events*: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, jaise Russia-Ukraine conflict, currency markets mein volatility ko create kar sakte hain. Is tensions ki escalation se flight to safety ko impact ho sakta hai, jo euro aur dollar dono ko impact kar sakta hai.

4. *Market Sentiment*: Market sentiment quick shift kar sakta hai, especially agar global economy mein unexpected developments hote hain. Agar investors risk environment mein change ko perceive karte hain, to yeh currency markets mein sudden rebalancing ko lead kar sakta hai, jo EUR/USD pair mein significant movement ko drive kar sakta hai.




*Technical Analysis*

Technical perspective se, EUR/USD pair key support levels ko approach kar raha hai. Agar yeh levels breach ho jate hain, to yeh further downside ko lead kar sakta hai. Lekin agar pair support finds karta hai aur in levels ko hold karne mein successful hota hai, to yeh reversal ki potential ko signal kar sakta hai. Traders aur investors 1.1100 level ko closely watch kar rahe hain, jo historically strong support zone ka role ada karta hai. Is level ke neeche break ho sakta hai, jo further declines ko open kar sakta hai, possibly 1.1000 level ki taraf. Conversely, agar pair is support se bounce karta hai, to yeh recovery ki shuruaat ko indicate kar sakta hai

EUR/USD Pair Analysis

EUR/USD pair ka strong upward momentum abhi bhi barqarar hai, aur nayi highs tak pahunch gaya hai aur un levels ke qareeb hi close kiya hai. Yeh continued strength itni surprising nahi hai, khaas tor par Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ke bayanat ke baad jo yeh indicate karte hain ke monetary policy mein ek potential shift aa sakta hai, jisne dollar ki recent decline mein contribute kiya hai. Lekin yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke dollar pehle se hi weak ho raha tha Powell ke bayanat se pehle, jo suggest karta hai ke yeh shift pehle se anticipate kiya gaya ho aur shayad market mein kuch had tak price mein aa chuka ho.

Is context mein, ek pullback hona plausible lagta hai, chahe broader trend abhi bhi upward hai. Strategy ke lehaz se, filhal koi immediate short-term targets nahi hain, lekin overall bias abhi bhi further upside potential ki taraf hai. Agar price qareeb 1.1130 level tak retreat hoti hai, toh yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, underlying bullish sentiment ko madde nazar rakhte hue.

Summary mein, jabke EUR/USD pair abhi bhi strong upward movement dikha raha hai, pullback ke possibility ko nazarandaz nahi karna chahiye, khaas tor par kyunke recent dollar weakness ka kuch hissa shayad already market mein factor ho chuka ho. Ek key level jo dekhne layak hai, woh 1.1130 hai, jahan ek dip favorable entry point offer kar sakti hai long positions ke liye, jo ongoing upward trend ke saath align karti hai. Currency pair EUR/USD ne is hafte ko calmly shuru kiya, magar last week aur Friday ke highs ko thoda update kiya, kareeb ek point ke aas paas. Us ke baad, price foran neeche chali gayi aur abhi 1.1182 ke level par trade kar rahi hai. Agar pullback continue karta hai, toh is movement ka target EUR/USD currency pair par H4 imbalance zone 1.1126–1.1172 hoga, jahan se lagta hai ke support form hoga, aur price upar bounce karne ki koshish karegi. Sirf yeh baat dhyan mein rakhni hai ke aaj Britain mein chutti hai aur European session zyada volatile nahi ho sakta, toh hum American session ka intezaar karte hain aur EUR/USD currency pair par situation ka further development dekhte hain.

Fundamental Analysis

Friday ke European session mein, EUR/USD pair thoda sa rebound kiya 1.1120 ke qareeb, Thursday ko 1.1174 ke new high se decline karne ke baad. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein address se pehle caution ke karan, main currency pair higher move kiya jab US Dollar (USD) ne apni recent weakness ko continue kiya, respectable recovery move ke baad.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko six major currencies ke khilaf measure karta hai, Thursday ko 101.00 se 101.60 par rise karne ke baad, Friday ko 101.30 par drop kiya. Flash US S&P Global PMI data ke August ne dikhaya ki Composite PMI stronger-than-expected 54.1 par aaya, jisne US dollar ko sharply rebound karne ke liye majbur kiya. Study ne dikhaya ki services sector ki strong growth ne economic activity ko spur kiya, jabke manufacturing sector ne faster-than-expected pace se shrink kiya.

Investors US economy ko "soft landing" achieve karne ki possibility ko bhi consider kar rahe hain, kyunki price pressures 2% ke targeted rate par return karne ki ummeed hai. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data ne labour demand mein dramatic slowdown aur unemployment rate 4.3% par rise ko dikhaya, jo November 2021 ke baad highest level hai, US recession ki fears ko intensify karne ke liye.

Analysts ki ummeed nahi hai ki Jerome Powell interest rates ke predetermined trajectory ko provide karega. Lekin, dangers ab dual mandate ke employment aur inflation components ko extend kar rahe hain, woh September mein rate cuts ko advocate kar sakta hai.

Technical Analysis

Investors ki attention Fed Powell ke JH Symposium mein address par focused hai, EUR/USD pair ne 1.1100 ke round-level support ko maintain karne mein kamyab raha. Daily time frame mein channel formation ke breakout ke baad, common currency pair ke prognosis positive raha. Short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) ki increased slope se significant upswing hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strong upward momentum ko indicate karta hai, lekin overbought levels ko cross karta hai. Yeh positive region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillate karta hai.

Euro ke bulls 1.1200 ke round-level resistance ko retake kar sakte hain agar December 28, 2023 ke high 1.1140 se clear break hota hai. Downside par 1.1100 ke round-level number par significant support zone hai

**Euro/USD Price Forecast**

Yahan Euro/USD exchange rate ka chart diya gaya hai. Is waqt ke Euro/USD situation ko samajhna thoda mushkil hai. Price action ko dekhna zaroori hai. Mere khayal se, deep correction ki umeed rakhna bekaar hai. Daily chart ko dekhte hue, price FE 138.20% (1.1160) level ke neeche consolidate nahi kar paayi, isliye main growth ke liye zyada inclined hoon. Negative range tak pahunchna bhi mushkil lag raha hai, jo SGR of weeks 1.1080–1.085 mein hai. Sirf ek driver hai—German GDP ka revision, aur agar is girawat ke liye unhe isey -0.50% ya usse neeche revise karna padega. Tab shayad kuch aur option mile. General taur par, correction ko continue karne ki koshish kar rahe hain aur kam se kam ascending trend line ke support level 1.0786 tak pahunchne ki koshish karenge. Lekin market mein koi bhi guarantee nahi hoti. Har haal mein, kai options hain jo consider karni chahiye.

**Chart Analysis**

Horizontal volumes ke hisaab se, hum kal ki daily candle 1.1164 ke maximum volume ke upar hain, aur yahan north ki taraf move karne ki koshish hai, lekin candle ke beech ka maximum volume 1.1181 hai. 4-hour chart par EUR/USD pair ne kal FE 161.80% (1.1151) support ko test kiya aur phir rebound hua, jo southern correction ki nafrat ka signal de sakta hai, jo daily chart ke analysis ke saath match karta hai, aur isliye abhi sales consider nahi kar raha. Price abhi bhi upward movement ke andar hi ho rahi hai. Filhal price 1.1148 aur 1.1185 ke beech trade ho rahi hai, isliye hum in boundaries ke breakout par focus kar rahe hain. Jahan tak yeh boundaries break hoti hain aur fixation hoti hai, wahan hum short-term mein move karenge. Tab tak growth priority hai. Agar ascending trend aur support zone 1.1094 ke area mein break ho jata hai, tab hum sales ke liye zyada thoroughly kaam kar sakte hain.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

EURUSD Improved Market Optimism par Surges

Investors ab Fed ke monetary expansion cycle ke start par dihan de rahe hain aur US presidential election ke hawalay se apni fikr temporarily side par rakh di hai. Yeh uncertainty US dollar ke liye support faraham kar sakti hai. Aao is topic par guftagu karain aur EURUSD pair ke liye aik trading plan banayein.[*] Key Points

1. Markets Fed ke monetary expansion ke hawalay se zyada optimistic hain.
2. History yeh dikhati hai ke sharp rate cuts markets ke liye inherently unhealthy hote hain.
3. Investors ko US presidential election ko overlook nahi karna chahiye.
4. Jab tak EURUSD 1.118 ke neeche trade kar raha hai, pullback ke risks barh rahe hain.

Euro ke liye Weekly Fundamental Forecast

Jo cheez chaho us se daro. Markets aksar Fed se zyada expect karte hain jo ke woh provide karne ke qabil hota hai, aur yeh central bank ke liye criticism ka sabab ban sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, investors ne yeh raai di ke Alan Greenspan ne 2000 mein dot-com collapse ke baad excessively interest rates reduce kiye. 2008 mein Ben Bernanke ne expansionary monetary policy implement ki jo ke economy mein liquidity ke overabundance ka sabab bani. Janet Yellen ne mid-2010s mein borrowing costs ko lambe arsay tak low rakha. Lagta hai ke Jerome Powell ne inflationary pressures ko dair mein acknowledge kiya, aur ab woh potential recession ke early signs ko pehchanne mein dair kar raha hai.

Yeh inevitable hai ke markets kabhi kabhi disappointed honge, lekin yeh largely unki wishful thinking ki capacity ka natija hai. Ek misaal ke taur par US Treasury bond yields mein izafa hua Fed ke latest tightening cycle ke start hone se pehle. Lekin ab US Treasuries ke yields gir rahe hain jab ke central bank ne abhi tak monetary policy ko loosen nahi kiya. Market proactive manner mein act kar raha hai, lekin iski appetite considerable hai.

Derivatives market yeh indicate kar raha hai ke Fed ka monetary expansion 2025 tak 200 basis points tak pohanch sakta hai, aur 2024 ke end tak 100 basis points tak. Investors September aur December mein federal funds rate mein 25-basis-point reduction expect kar rahe hain, aur November mein potential additional 50-basis-point cut bhi ho sakta hai. Lekin history yeh dikhati hai ke abrupt reduction in monetary policy stock indices ke decline ke risk ko barha sakta hai. Market ke nazar se, central bank ka gradual approach achha hota hai instead of sudden policy change. Yeh natija pichlay 14 full Fed cycles ke analysis se draw kiya ja sakta hai.

Markets abhi tak federal funds rate ke reduction par focused hain, jab ke US mein forthcoming presidential elections seemingly back seat le chuki hain. Bank of America ke analysis ke mutabiq, pichlay 13 cases mein se 10 mein, USD index vote se 70 din pehle rise kiya. Yeh 77% times ke liye is period mein hua. Unsurprisingly, increased political uncertainty US dollar ko ek safe-haven asset ke tor par support deti hai.

Lekin jab tak market sentiment bullish hai, EURUSD bears ko significant challenges ka samna hai. Major currency pair surging hai Fed aur ECB ke darmiyan differing rates of monetary expansion ke wajah se, aur US aur baaqi duniya ke darmiyan economic growth ke divergence ke narrowing ke wajah se. Primary source of optimism developing world mein hai. IMF projections ke mutabiq, in 88% of these countries, GDP per capita ka growth rate US se tez hone ka expected hai, jo ke 2000s ke expansion ke sath aligned hai.

EURUSD ke liye Weekly Trading Plan

Euro ek procyclical currency hai, is liye global economy ka growth iski value ko boost karta hai. Lekin EURUSD pair ke liye correction ka faida ho sakta hai pehle ke yeh apna upward trajectory continue kare. Jab tak pair 1.118 ke neeche trade kar raha hai, optimal strategy euro ko sell karne ki suggest karti hai.

Dollar Index thoda sa barha hai jab ke US Durable goods 9.9% par strong aaye. Ab hume dekhna hai ke rise 101.50-101.75 tak extend hota hai ya nahi. PCE inflation — jo ke Fed ka favored gauge of price growth hai — Friday ko due hai. Euro 1.1150-1.11 tak wapas gir sakta hai near term mein jab tak woh 1.1250/1.1300 ke neeche hai. USDJPY ko wapas bullish hone ke liye 145 se zyada rise karna hoga jab ke EURJPY kuch arsa ke liye 160-164 range mein reh sakta hai. Pound hamari mentioned resistance 1.3250 ke neeche kaafi acha hold kar raha hai aur jald hi 1.13 ya neeche gir sakta hai. Aussie 0.68 se upar rise nahi kar saka aur 0.6750 se neeche break ho sakta hai jo 0.67-0.6650 tak girne ka sabab ban sakta hai. USDCNY ko wapas 7.18 tak rise karne ke liye 7.12 ke upar sustain rehna hoga. EURINR agle sessions mein 93-92 tak wapas gir sakta hai jab tak woh 94 ke neeche hai. USDINR shayad near term mein 84.00-83.75 region ke andar trade karta rahe.

US Treasury aur German yields thoda se bounce hue hain. Lekin yeh short-lived ho sakta hai. Resistances dono yields par hain jo corrective rise mein upside ko cap kar sakti hain. Broader view bearish rehne ka continue karta hai. German aur Treasury yields wapas girne ke liye aur downtrend ko resume karne ke liye tayar lagte hain. 10Yr GoI lower aur stable rehne ka continue karta hai. Bias negative hai ke support break ho aur eventually gir jaye.

Dow Jones aur Nifty ke paas 41800-42000 aur 25500 tak rise hone ka room hai. DAX abhi tak apni resistance ke neeche hold kar raha hai. Apni resistance ke clear break hone ke baad increased bullishness ya phir fallback ka dar hai. Nikkei apni support ke upar sustain kar raha hai aur jab tak woh upar hai, near term view bullish rehne ka hai. Shanghai outlook bearish hai aur 2800 tak girne ke liye tayar hai.

Crude prices kaafi barh gaye hain aur near term mein aage further bullish lagte hain. Gold aur Silver thoda se dip hue hain lekin unke key resistance tak rise hone ke chances tab tak intact hain jab tak woh apni immediate support ke upar hold karte hain. Copper higher rehne ka continue karta hai aur 4.4 tak bullish lagta hai. Natural gas kuch arsay ke liye 2.0-2.3 range mein bound rehne ka lagta hai.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

4-hour chart par dekhte hue, pair ne 1.1100 level, 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), aur 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) ke upar settle kiya hai. Isne 1.1150 level ko surpass kiya aur 1.1200 ko test kiya.



Pair abhi 1.1200 ke neeche gains ko consolidate kar raha hai. Immediate support 1.1120 level ke qareeb hai ya phir 23.6% Fib retracement upward move se jo ke 1.0775 swing low se 1.1200 high tak tha.

Is chart par support par ek major bullish trend line bhi ban rahi hai jo 1.1120 par hai. Agla major support 1.1040 level ke qareeb hai. Agar 1.1040 level ke neeche downside break hota hai, toh yeh larger decline ke liye pace set kar sakta hai.

Agla major support 1.0980 level ke qareeb hai ya phir 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). Yeh upward move se 50% Fib retracement ke qareeb hai jo 1.0775 swing low se 1.1200 high tak tha. Kisi aur loss se pair 1.0920 support level ki taraf ja sakta hai.

Upside par, pair ko resistance 1.1185 level ke qareeb mil sakta hai. Pehla key resistance 1.1200 level ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh 1.1200 level ke upar clear move hota hai, toh yeh move ko 1.1250 level ki taraf set kar sakta hai.

Furame Time™ H4 Analysis

Trading Scenario for Four-Hour Chart (H4):

Aaj ka din sab ko shubh ho! Four-hour chart ke mutabiq, linear regression channel bearish state mein hai, jo sellers ke strength ko indicate karta hai. Is waqt market south direction mein move kar rahi hai, jo channel ke lower edge 1.08269 ki taraf ja rahi hai. Mere khayal se, 1.08541 level se sell karna theek rahega, jo bulls ke against resistance ka kaam karega. Agar price is level ko break karti hai, toh deeper correction ki possibility 1.08594 tak increase ho jayegi.

Trading Strategy:

1. Sell from 1.08541 Level:
   • Agar price 1.08541 se neeche aati hai, toh selling ka option consider kiya ja sakta hai.
   • Lekin, agar target achieve ho jata hai, toh selling ko wait karna behtar hai, kyun ke H4 ke movement ki volatility exhaust ho sakti hai, jo upward movement ka lead kar sakta hai.
2. Pullback Strategy:
   • Pullback ke liye wait karna behtar hoga, jo channel ke upper border par ho sakti hai. Is se unprocessed signal ki wajah se entry cost reduce hogi.
   • H4 chart pe linear regression channel se asset ke intraday movement ko assess karna zaroori hai.

Market Situation and Risk Management:

• H4 channel ke according, market 1.08403 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hai aur H4 ke upper edge se neeche hai. Yeh situation bearish hai.
• Complex of two channels indicate karta hai ki buying aur selling dono possibilities hain, jo risky ho sakti hai. Agar bulls 1.08541 ke upar consolidate karte hain, toh selling ko consider kiya ja sakta hai, 1.08594 se upper side par.
• Negative target current session ke liye 1.08176 hai.

Trading with Pending Orders:

• Pending orders ko moving average ke neeche place kiya ja sakta hai trend continuation ke liye, aur moving average ke upar trend continuation north ke liye.
• Risk management aur stop orders set karna zaroori hai.

Conclusion:

Ab hum average price range ke moving average tak pohnch chuke hain. Yeh ek decisive moment hai jahan decide karna hoga ki currency pair agla move kahan karegi. Is situation ko carefully assess karna aur proper risk management follow karna behtar hoga.

tawajjo M15 time frame ke linear regression channel ki taraf dilwana chahta hoon, jo ke upwards slope kar raha hai, aur ye buyers ke trend ka izhar kar raha hai. Is beech bears bhi apni activity dikha rahe hain, jo price ko neeche push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Main observe kar raha hoon ke price 1.09196 se neeche break kar rahi hai, jo channel ki lower boundary 1.09228 ke bahar hai, aur ye 1.09095 tak ke possible decline ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin, ye bhi worth noting hai ke 1.09095 ke level par buyers ki taraf se sellers ko strong resistance face karna par sakta hai. Analysis suggest karta hai ke 1.09095 tak sell kiya ja sakta hai, lekin main recommend karta hoon ke is level par positions close kar den ya at least order ko breakeven par secure kar len. Jaise ke hamesha, ehtiyaat aur proper risk management successful trading ke key principles hain!
Mera strategic goal hai ke main downtrend par position hold karun aur 1.09095 ke level par barrier ko break karun. Lekin, yeh zaroori hai ke hourly channel ke position ko bhi madde nazar rakha jaye kyunki yeh downward movement ko limit kar sakta hai. Isliye, main sabhi risks ko consider karta hoon aur necessary analysis conduct karta hoon taake losses ko protect aur minimize kiya ja sake.

Hourly chart par, linear regression channel bhi upwards slope kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai jo market par dominate kar rahe hain. Is case mein, H1 channel M15 se zyada significance rakhta hai. Agar channel ki lower boundary 1.09095 tak pohanchi, to yeh ek strong buyer ka izhar ho sakta hai. Filhal, M15 par linear regression ek correction suggest karta hai, jiske baad bulls zyada active ho sakte hain. Agar market 1.09095 ke level par hold karta hai, to yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, jo ek accha idea ho sakta hai. Target 1.09425 ka hoga. Is target ko achieve karne ke baad, agar koi active seller 1.09425 ke level par appear hota hai to market ka direction bearish ho sakta hai. Agar price 1.09095 ke neeche break kar jata hai, to yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai, kyunki yeh trend reversal ka indication de sakta hai.

Ab hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price fluctuations ka tajziya karenge. Friday ko, humne EUR/USD pair ko H1 time frame par trade kiya tha planned sideways movement ke andar, jo ke 9th din se qaim hai. Jaise expect kiya gaya tha, humne weekend se pehle is sideways pattern se exit nahi kiya, aur Monday ko yeh range mein hi continue karega. Lekin, Tuesday aur Wednesday tak, jab economic calendar active ho jayega, tab hum consolidation se break dekh sakte hain. Critical sawal yeh hai ke market kis direction mein move karega, lekin breakout direction ko predict karna mushkil hai kyunki theoretically yeh dono taraf ho sakta hai. Attached chart potential targets ko illustrate karta hai is movement ke liye. Yeh predict karna challenging hai ke EUR/USD pair ka upcoming trading week mein kis taraf break hoga, especially given ke resistance ka narrow range, jo ke 1.0966 aur 1.0947 ke beech identify kiya gaya hai, iski recent decline ke darmiyan.

Lekin, agar price is range ke upar stabilize ho jati hai, to bulls ko ek fresh local maximum ki taraf drive kar sakti hai. Main estimate karta hoon ke dono scenarios ke liye 50% chance hai, halaan ke main thoda bullish outcome ki taraf lean karta hoon. Price mein lower boundary of the triangle, jo ke minimum level 1.0449 ke ird gird hai, tak retreat karne ka potential hai. Iske bawajood, upside breakout zyada feasible lag raha hai. Price current upper boundary ko break karne ya neeche move karne ki koshish kar sakti hai, halaan ke ab tak lower boundary tak nahi pohnchi. Isliye, main maximum ko update karne ki possibility 1.1009 tak rule out nahi kar sakta. U.S. Dollar Index ko dekhte hue, weakening ke signs zahir hain. Hum index mein further decline dekh sakte hain, jo ke minimum ko 102.14 tak update kar sakta hai

Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Mera khayal hai keh Federal Reserve ki janib se sud ki sherah ke bare me apne faisle ke ailan karne ke bad market mumkena taur par palat jayegi. Taarikhi taur par, stock markets aur risky assets aam taur par sherah me kami ke fauran bad girna shuru kar dete hain. Fir, waqt guzarne ke sath, jab sherah numaya taur par kam ho jati hai to, liquidity aur sasti udhari ke aamad ke darmiyan khatarnak assets me dobara izafa hone lagta hai.
Iske alawa, European Central Bank apne aham sud ki sherah me tezi se kami kar sakta hai, kiyunkeh aaj ki report Germany me ek aur manfi timahi eqtesadi taraqqi ko zahir kar sakti hai.
Market ki maujudah suratehal gahir yaqini bani hui hai. Mai tawaqqo karta hun keh euro/dollar ka joda 1.1135 ki satah par fisal jayega, jahan mai 1.1230-1.1265 ke ilaqe se long ya short positions kholne ki koshish karunga.
Abhi ke liye, market kam utar-chadhaw ke sath trade kar rahi hai. Trade kholne ka koi faida nahin hai, lehaza mai fence par rahne ko tarjih deta hun.

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko set kiye gaye new high 1.1175 se decline kiya hai 1.1130 par, jab US Dollar (USD) rise hua lekin 2024 ke new low ke qareeb reh gaya. Central currency pair thoda down trade kar raha hai 1.1130 par. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo US dollar ki value ko measures karta hai six other major currencies ke relative, ab 101.00 par trade kar raha hai.

Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein interest rates ko lower karne ki track par hai, US dollar ke liye prognosis abhi bhi bleak hai. Is move se, Fed apni first dovish interest rate decision ko almost four years mein kar raha hai. March 2022 se, US central bank ne tight monetary policy ko pursue kiya hai inflation ko reduce karne ke liye.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes July 30-31 policy meeting se indicate karte hain ki "vast majority" Fed officials September mein policy-easing ko appropriate samajhte hain, given continued easing inflationary pressures. Yeh market speculation ko strengthen karta hai Fed interest rate cuts ke liye.

FOMC minutes ne bhi reveal kiya ki some decision-makers July se interest rates ko lower karne ke liye prepared the. Investors Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki address ko watch karenge Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein Friday ko 14:00 GMT se, interest rates ki direction ke liye clues ke liye. Woh September ke interest rate decreases ki extent aur Fed is year ke potential reductions ke hints bhi dhoondenge.

Investors US flash S&P Global PMI data ko watch karenge August ke liye Thursday ko 13:45 GMT se release hone ke liye. Preliminary PMI data se anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki July mein Composite PMI 54.3 se 53.5 par gir gaya.

Price Evaluation

Investors ki attention Fed Powell ki address par focused hai JH Symposium mein Friday ko, EUR/USD pair Wednesday ke trading range mein trade kar raha hai. Main currency pair year-to-date high 1.1775 par trade kar raha hai, isliye anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki woh apni four-day winning streak ko extend karega. Standard currency pair ne previously momentum gain kiya hai daily time frame breakout ke channel formation se. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) short-to-long-term trend ko indicate kar rahe hain, upward pointing. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) upward solid momentum ko indicate karta hai, bullish region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillating. Lekin, momentum indicator overbought zone mein hai, corrective downturn ki probability zyada hai.

Bulls euro mein round-level resistance ko retake karne ki koshish kar rahe hain 1.1200 par, clear break ke baad December 28, 2023 ke high 1.1140 se. Round-level number 1.1100 significant support zone ko serve karega downside par

EUR/USD Currency Pair ki Jaiza

EUR/USD currency pair, jo 1.11168 par trade kar raha hai, bearish trend ka shikar hai. Yeh trend gradual decline ka shikar hai, jo broader market sentiments ko economic aur geopolitical factors se influence karta hai. Is slow movement ke bawajood, kuch reasons hain jo is baat ko darshate hain ki coming days mein significant shift ho sakta hai.

*Current Bearish Trend ki Jaiza*

EUR/USD pair mein bearish trend ko kuch factors se attribute kiya ja sakta hai, jaise ECB aur Fed ke divergent monetary policies, economic data releases, aur geopolitical uncertainties. ECB ne monetary tightening mein cautious approach adopt kiya hai, jabki Fed ne inflation ko combat karne ke liye interest rates ko raise karna shuru kar diya hai. Is divergence ne U.S. dollar ko stronger bana diya hai, jis se euro par downward pressure aaya hai.

*Big Movement ke Potential Triggers*

Current bearish trend ke bawajood, kuch potential triggers hain jo EUR/USD pair mein significant movement ko lead kar sakte hain:

1. *ECB Policy Changes*: Agar ECB rising inflationary pressures ke response mein more hawkish stance adopt karta hai, to yeh euro ki fortunes ko reverse kar sakta hai. ECB ke aggressive rate hikes ko consider karne ki koi indication euro ko boost kar sakti hai aur pair mein sharp movement ko cause kar sakti hai.

2. *U.S. Economic Data*: U.S. se key economic data releases, jaise non-farm payrolls, inflation reports, aur GDP figures, dollar ki strength ko impact kar sakte hain. Agar data weaker than expected aata hai, to yeh dollar ki depreciation ko lead kar sakta hai aur EUR/USD pair mein corresponding rise ko cause kar sakta hai.

3. *Geopolitical Events*: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, jaise Russia-Ukraine conflict, currency markets mein volatility ko create kar sakte hain. Is tensions ki escalation se flight to safety ko impact ho sakta hai, jo euro aur dollar dono ko impact kar sakta hai.

4. *Market Sentiment*: Market sentiment quick shift kar sakta hai, especially agar global economy mein unexpected developments hote hain. Agar investors risk environment mein change ko perceive karte hain, to yeh currency markets mein sudden rebalancing ko lead kar sakta hai, jo EUR/USD pair mein significant movement ko drive kar sakta hai.

*Technical Analysis*

Technical perspective se, EUR/USD pair key support levels ko approach kar raha hai. Agar yeh levels breach ho jate hain, to yeh further downside ko lead kar sakta hai. Lekin agar pair support finds karta hai aur in levels ko hold karne mein successful hota hai, to yeh reversal ki potential ko signal kar sakta hai. Traders aur investors 1.1100 level ko closely watch kar rahe hain, jo historically strong support zone ka role ada karta hai. Is level ke neeche break ho sakta hai, jo further declines ko open kar sakta hai, possibly 1.1000 level ki taraf. Conversely, agar pair is support se bounce karta hai, to yeh recovery ki shuruaat ko indicate kar sakta haiEUR/USD Currency Pair ki Jaiza

EUR/USD currency pair, jo 1.11168 par trade kar raha hai, bearish trend ka shikar hai. Yeh trend gradual decline ka shikar hai, jo broader market sentiments ko economic aur geopolitical factors se influence karta hai. Is slow movement ke bawajood, kuch reasons hain jo is baat ko darshate hain ki coming days mein significant shift ho sakta hai.

*Current Bearish Trend ki Jaiza*

EUR/USD pair mein bearish trend ko kuch factors se attribute kiya ja sakta hai, jaise ECB aur Fed ke divergent monetary policies, economic data releases, aur geopolitical uncertainties. ECB ne monetary tightening mein cautious approach adopt kiya hai, jabki Fed ne inflation ko combat karne ke liye interest rates ko raise karna shuru kar diya hai. Is divergence ne U.S. dollar ko stronger bana diya hai, jis se euro par downward pressure aaya hai.

*Big Movement ke Potential Triggers*

Current bearish trend ke bawajood, kuch potential triggers hain jo EUR/USD pair mein significant movement ko lead kar sakte hain:

1. *ECB Policy Changes*: Agar ECB rising inflationary pressures ke response mein more hawkish stance adopt karta hai, to yeh euro ki fortunes ko reverse kar sakta hai. ECB ke aggressive rate hikes ko consider karne ki koi indication euro ko boost kar sakti hai aur pair mein sharp movement ko cause kar sakti hai.

2. *U.S. Economic Data*: U.S. se key economic data releases, jaise non-farm payrolls, inflation reports, aur GDP figures, dollar ki strength ko impact kar sakte hain. Agar data weaker than expected aata hai, to yeh dollar ki depreciation ko lead kar sakta hai aur EUR/USD pair mein corresponding rise ko cause kar sakta hai.

3. *Geopolitical Events*: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, jaise Russia-Ukraine conflict, currency markets mein volatility ko create kar sakte hain. Is tensions ki escalation se flight to safety ko impact ho sakta hai, jo euro aur dollar dono ko impact kar sakta hai.

4. *Market Sentiment*: Market sentiment quick shift kar sakta hai, especially agar global economy mein unexpected developments hote hain. Agar investors risk environment mein change ko perceive karte hain, to yeh currency markets mein sudden rebalancing ko lead kar sakta hai, jo EUR/USD pair mein significant movement ko drive kar sakta hai.

*Technical Analysis*

Technical perspective se, EUR/USD pair key support levels ko approach kar raha hai. Agar yeh levels breach ho jate hain, to yeh further downside ko lead kar sakta hai. Lekin agar pair support finds karta hai aur in levels ko hold karne mein successful hota hai, to yeh reversal ki potential ko signal kar sakta hai. Traders aur investors 1.1100 level ko closely watch kar rahe hain, jo historically strong support zone ka role ada karta hai. Is level ke neeche break ho sakta hai, jo further declines ko open kar sakta hai, possibly 1.1000 level ki taraf. Conversely, agar pair is support se bounce karta hai, to yeh recovery ki shuruaat ko indicate kar sakta hai.