eur/usd

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EUR/USD Forecast: Improving Risk Mood Euro Ko Higher Stretch Karne Mein Madad De Sakti Hai

EUR/USD apni sideways grind ko 1.1200 ke neeche Tuesday ke early hours mein extend kar raha hai. European session mein US stock index futures modestly higher trade kar rahe hain. US se CB Consumer Confidence Index data ko fresh impetus ke liye dekha jayega.

EUR/USD Monday ko choti losses post karne ke baad 1.1150 ke upar narrow band mein upar neeche hota reh raha hai. High-tier data releases ke absence mein, improving risk mood ke wajah se US Dollar (USD) ke rebound ko extend karna mushkil ho sakta hai aur yeh pair ko apni position hold karne mein madad de sakta hai.

Monday ko US se aane wale data ne yeh dikhaya ke Durable Goods Orders July mein 9.9% barh gaye hain, jiski wajah se USD ne strength gather ki aur EUR/USD thoda lower ho gaya. Din ke baad mein, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco ke dovish comments ne USD ke gains ko limit kar diya.

Daly ne kaha, "Yeh policy ko adjust karne ka waqt hai," aur yeh note kiya ke kuch bhi sochna mushkil hai jo September mein rate cut ko derail kar sake.

Conference Board ka Consumer Confidence Index US economic calendar mein din ke baad mein sirf noteworthy data hoga. Consumer sentiment mein significant improvement se USD ko immediate reaction mein support mil sakta hai lekin investors shayad sirf is data par large positions lene se katarayenge.

Isi dauran, US stock index futures European morning mein Tuesday ko 0.1% se 0.25% ke darmiyan gain kar rahe hain. Wall Street mein bullish opening EUR/USD ko din ke doosray hissay mein support kar sakti hai.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Near-term technical outlook yeh suggest karta hai ke bullish stance unchanged hai, jahan 4-hour chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator 60 ke upar comfortably hold kar raha hai jab ke yeh overbought levels se correct ho raha hai. Is ke ilawa, EUR/USD 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke upar float karta reh raha hai jab ke yeh ascending regression channel ke andar trade kar raha hai jo early August se aa raha hai.



Upside par, 1.1200 (static level, psychological level) pehla resistance hai jo 1.1240 (ascending channel ka upper limit) aur 1.1260 (static level July 2023 se) ke pehle hai.

EUR/USD ke liye supports 1.1160-1.1150 (ascending channel ka mid-point, 20-period SMA), 1.1100 (ascending channel ka lower limit, 50-period SMA) aur 1.1060 (static level) pe dekhe ja sakte hain.

Euro/USD Fundamental

Euro 20 European Union countries ki currency hai jo Eurozone ka hissa hain. Yeh duniya ki second most heavily traded currency hai, US Dollar ke baad. 2022 mein, yeh sab foreign exchange transactions ka 31% account karti thi, jisme over $2.2 trillion ka daily turnover hota tha. EUR/USD duniya ka most heavily traded currency pair hai, jo sab transactions ka estimated 30% account karta hai, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) aur EUR/AUD (2%).

European Central Bank (ECB) Frankfurt, Germany mein Eurozone ke liye reserve bank hai. ECB interest rates set karta hai aur monetary policy manage karta hai. ECB ka primary mandate price stability ko maintain karna hota hai, jo ya toh inflation ko control karne ya growth ko stimulate karne se hota hai. ECB ka primary tool interest rates ko raise ya lower karna hota hai. Relatively high interest rates — ya higher rates ki expectation — aam tor par Euro ke liye faidemand hoti hai aur vice versa. ECB Governing Council monetary policy decisions meetings mein karti hai jo saal mein aath martaba hoti hain. Decisions Eurozone national banks ke heads aur six permanent members, jisme ECB ke President Christine Lagarde bhi shamil hain, lete hain.

Eurozone inflation data, jo Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) se measure hota hai, Euro ke liye aik important econometric hai. Agar inflation expectation se zyada barhta hai, khaaskar agar ECB ke 2% target se upar ho, toh yeh ECB ko interest rates barhane par majboor karta hai taake isse wapas control mein laya ja sake. Relatively high interest rates jo iske counterparts se zyada hoti hain aam tor par Euro ke liye faidemand hoti hain, kyun ke yeh region ko global investors ke liye apna paisa park karne ke liye zyada attractive banati hain.

Data releases economy ki health ko gauge karte hain aur Euro par asar daal sakte hain. Indicators jaise ke GDP, Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, employment, aur consumer sentiment surveys sab single currency ke direction ko influence kar sakte hain. Ek strong economy Euro ke liye achi hoti hai. Yeh na sirf zyada foreign investment attract karti hai lekin yeh ECB ko interest rates barhane par majboor kar sakti hai, jo directly Euro ko strengthen karega. Warna, agar economic data weak hota hai, toh Euro girne ke chances hotay hain. Euro area ke char sab se bari economies ke economic data (Germany, France, Italy aur Spain) khaas ahmiyat rakhti hain, kyun ke yeh Eurozone ki economy ka 75% account karti hain.

Euro ke liye ek aur significant data release Trade Balance hai. Yeh indicator is difference ko measure karta hai jo ke aik mulk apni exports se kamata hai aur jo imports par kharch karta hai kisi given period mein. Agar aik mulk highly sought-after exports produce karta hai toh iski currency value gain karti hai purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers jo in goods ko purchase karna chahte hain. Is liye, ek positive net Trade Balance currency ko strengthen karta hai aur vice versa for a negative balance.

Main ne 1.1131 level par focus kiya aur apne trading decisions ko is par base kiya. 5-minute chart ko dekhne ke liye, yeh dekhte hain ki kya hua. Upward movement hua, lekin 1.1131 level par false breakout nahi hua, so mere paas koi entry points nahi the.

EUR/USD par Long Positions Kholne Ke Liye:

Eurozone statistics ki lack aur euro ki recent overbought condition market ko trend continue karne se rok rahi hai. FOMC meeting minutes ka release second half of the day mein expected hai. Is document se kuch naya reveal hone ki ummeed nahi hai, so dollar ko sell karne aur euro ko buy karne ka outlook hai, lekin yeh actions highly unbalanced market mein li jani chahiye, kyunki volatility return karne ki ummeed nahi hai.

Current conditions mein, euro ki overbought condition ke saath, decline par act karna best hai aur 1.1102 support level par false breakout ke baad, jahan moving averages hain, bulls ko favor karte hain. Yeh long positions kholne ke liye favorable condition hoga, anticipating further euro growth aur bullish trend ko strengthen karne ke liye.




EUR/USD par Short Positions Kholne Ke Liye:

Sirf very hawkish FOMC minutes release hi euro sellers ko pair mein correction karne ki chance dega, jo ki long overdue hai. Euro growth ki attempts mein, main sellers ko 1.1131 resistance level par expect karta hoon, jahan hum first half of the day mein nahi pahuche. False breakout yahan short positions kholne ka reason hoga, targeting decline towards 1.1102 support

Euro ki trading abhi bhi choppy aur naqeeb hai, jahan key levels agle direction ke indicators ke tor par kaam karte hain. Yeh pair aksar US dollar ki overall strength ya weakness ka barometer ke tor par dekha jata hai aur doosri currency pairs ke liye secondary indicator ka kaam karta hai. Euro ki ahemiyat ke wajah se, bohot se traders iski movements ko broader market trends ko gauge karne ke liye dekhte hain.

Tuesday ko, euro ne subah ke waqt zyada movement nahi dikhayi, jo ke bada ajeeb nahi hai kyunki market sentiment ko affect karne wale koi major economic news nahi thi. Market thoda tight lag rahi hai, isliye 1.11 level ko dekhna bahut zaroori hai, jo ke 4-hour aur daily charts par key area of support hai. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai, to yeh 1.10 level tak decline ka signal de sakta hai, jo market sentiment mein potential shift ko indicate kar sakta hai.

Overall, euro ka trading noisy aur sideways rehne ka imkaan hai. Yeh samajh aata hai kyunki European Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve dono loose monetary policy ko maintain kar rahe hain. Euro ke recent recovery ke bawajood, aisa lagta hai ke currency abhi current levels par kaafi overvalued ho sakti hai.

1.1250 level ek significant resistance barrier ke tor par kaam karta hai. Agar euro is level ko break kar leti hai, to yeh ek mazid strong move ke signal de sakta hai. Filhaal ke liye, market major levels ke beech move karna pasand kar rahi hai, 1.12 level ko upar test karte hue aur 1.11 level ke aas-paas support dekhte hue. Yeh range-bound behavior continued uncertainty aur decisive factors ke lack ko reflect karta hai jo currency ko kisi bhi direction mein push karen. Is environment mein, traders in key levels ko closely monitor karte rahenge signs of break ya breakdown ke liye.

Fundamental Analysis

Mangal ke roz ke European session ke doran, EUR/USD ek tang daira mein trade ho raha tha jo ke 1.1200 ke foran baari ke niche tha. Ye mukhya currency pair thoda steady raha jab traders naye ishaarat dhoondh rahe the ke US Federal Reserve (Fed) aur European Central Bank (ECB) is saal kitne interest rate cuts kar sakte hain.

Market players ko lagta hai ke ECB September mein interest rates kam kar sakta hai. Aasaar hain ke central bank is saal ke aakhri mawaqe mein apne benchmark borrowing rates ko ek baar phir se kam karega. Eurozone mein kam hoti hui pricing pressure aur economic prospects ke baare mein uncertainty ke sabab se do aur interest rate cuts ke afwaahain barh rahi hain.

Investors Friday ko August ka flash Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke Eurozone mein inflation ke sab se taza jaankari faraham karega. Core HICP, jo ke khane, energy, alcohol, aur tobacco jese volatile items ko chhod kar nikala jata hai, aur headline HICP dono ka is saal 2.8% aur 2.2% tak kam hone ka imkaan hai. Kam inflationary pressures Euro ke liye nuqsan deh hain kyunki ye market speculation ko barhate hain ke zyada rate cuts ho sakte hain. Is ke muqabil, agar inflation unexpectedly zyada hoti hai to ye Euro ko madad dega aur usse kamzor kar dega.

**Technical Analysis**

Nayi swing high 1.1200 par set hone ke baad, EUR/USD sideway movement mein hai. Ye major currency pair Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern ke weekly time frame breakout ke baad momentum gain kar raha hai. Upar ki taraf movement ko 10-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke zariye support mil raha hai, jo ke 1.0940 ke aas-paas hai aur upward trend mein hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) strong upward momentum ko indicate kar raha hai, jo ke bullish region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai. Lekin, RSI ab overbought levels tak pohnch gaya hai, jo ke lagbhag 70.00 ke aas-paas hai, isse corrective retreat ki sambhavana barh gayi hai. Faida ki baat ye hai ke Euro bulls ka agla target July 2023 ka high point hoga, jo ke 1.1275 hai.

EURUSD dusre din ke liye niche trade kar rahi hai aur blue moving average ke neeche wapas aa gayi hai chaar ghante ke chart par, jo ke continued decline ka ishara hai, aur support 1.0877 par mil raha hai. Is measure par poora bharosa nahi hai. Indicators already bohot strong oversold conditions dikhate hain, aur bulls ke market mein wapas aane ki possibility ko nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Isliye, agar quotes 1.0877 level ke neeche rehti hain, to main downward trend ke continue hone ki ummeed karta hoon. Doosri scenario ko bhi nahi bhoolna chahiye, agar quotes 1.0927 resistance ke upar wapas aati hain, to main long-term rise aur ek aur uchaai ki ummeed karta hoon.
EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.
Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge.
Iske ilawa, technical analysis ke context mein, yeh scenario naye participants ko bhi attract kar sakta hai jo pehle cautious ya bullish trend ke confirmation ka wait kar rahe the. In technical indicators ka alignment unhe confirmation data hai, jo ek stronger conviction offer karta hai ke uptrend sustainable hai. Yeh increased participation bullish momentum ko further fuel kar sakta hai, jise naye buyers existing upward pressure ko add karte hain.
Summary yeh hai ke price ka 100-period SMA ke upar hona weekly chart par, aur positive oscillator readings ke sath, currency pair ke liye strong bullish momentum ka indication hai. Yeh technical setup yeh darshata hai ke upward pressure likely hai ke continue rahega, kyunki yeh price action aur momentum indicators dono ke sath well-supported trend ko reflect karta hai. Traders aur investors isse bullish signal ke roop mein dekhenge, jo continued buying aur near term mein further price appreciation ki taraf le ja sakta hai

Maine 1.1153 level par focus kiya tha aur market mein entry decisions is par banaane ka plan kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main short positions foran rebound par 1.1274 se kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target rakhte hue

tawajjo M15 time frame ke linear regression channel ki taraf dilwana chahta hoon, jo ke upwards slope kar raha hai, aur ye buyers ke trend ka izhar kar raha hai. Is beech bears bhi apni activity dikha rahe hain, jo price ko neeche push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Main observe kar raha hoon ke price 1.09196 se neeche break kar rahi hai, jo channel ki lower boundary 1.09228 ke bahar hai, aur ye 1.09095 tak ke possible decline ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin, ye bhi worth noting hai ke 1.09095 ke level par buyers ki taraf se sellers ko strong resistance face karna par sakta hai. Analysis suggest karta hai ke 1.09095 tak sell kiya ja sakta hai, lekin main recommend karta hoon ke is level par positions close kar den ya at least order ko breakeven par secure kar len. Jaise ke hamesha, ehtiyaat aur proper risk management successful trading ke key principles hain! Mera strategic goal hai ke main downtrend par position hold karun aur 1.09095 ke level par barrier ko break karun. Lekin, yeh zaroori hai ke hourly channel ke position ko bhi madde nazar rakha jaye kyunki yeh downward movement ko limit kar sakta hai. Isliye, main sabhi risks ko consider karta hoon aur necessary analysis conduct karta hoon taake losses ko protect aur minimize kiya ja sake.

Hourly chart par, linear regression channel bhi upwards slope kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai jo market par dominate kar rahe hain. Is case mein, H1 channel M15 se zyada significance rakhta hai. Agar channel ki lower boundary 1.09095 tak pohanchi, to yeh ek strong buyer ka izhar ho sakta hai. Filhal, M15 par linear regression ek correction suggest karta hai, jiske baad bulls zyada active ho sakte hain. Agar market 1.09095 ke level par hold karta hai, to yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, jo ek accha idea ho sakta hai. Target 1.09425 ka hoga. Is target ko achieve karne ke baad, agar koi active seller 1.09425 ke level par appear hota hai to market ka direction bearish ho sakta hai. Agar price 1.09095 ke neeche break kar jata hai, to yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai, kyunki yeh trend reversal ka indication de sakt

Euro ne August main apni doosri sabse unchi satah hasil ki hai, jise sarmaayakaro ke darmiyan aam taur par optimistic jazbaat ka asar hai. Federal Reserve ka qareebi rujhan, jo zyada supportive lagta hai, ne yeh umeed barha di hai ke interest rates mein izafa ab khatam honay wala hai. Is badalte huye rujhan ne bazaar ka risk appetite kaafi barha diya hai. Zhishang Institute ke FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 18 September ko rate cut ke chances qareeban teen mein se ek hain. Federal Reserve ke afsaraan ne khud bhi is baat ka izhar kiya hai ke 25 basis point tak ki rate reduction ho sakti hai. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium main Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ne tasleem kiya ke central bank ab apne benchmark interest rate ko kam karne par ghor kar raha hai. Agle hafte ke economic data mein ziyata ahmiyat nahi hogi, magar European Union aur United States ke inflation data ko qareebi se dekha jaye ga. US GDP growth ka data jo ke Thursday ko anay wala hai, bazaar ke jazbaat ko hilaa sakta hai, magar traders ki tawajju Friday ko aane wale dual inflation reports par hi rahe gi.

European Union ka preliminary inflation data (HICP) agle Jumme ko expected hai. United States main personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation index ke Fed ke target level par qaim rehne ki umeed hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke inflation pressures kam ho rahe hain. Kuch challenges ke bawajood, Euro ne Friday ko naya high hasil kiya, aur 1.1300 ke area ko test kiya. Trading sentiment mein kuch ikhtilaf ke bawajood, overall price trend upward hai, jo darshata hai ke Euro mazid taqat pakar raha hai. US dollar ka recent rebound apni 200-day moving average low se Euro ko mazeed support de raha hai. Euro-to-dollar exchange rate barh rahi hai, aur agar price 1.1300 ke upar convincing break kar leti hai, to bullish sentiment mazeed barh sakta hai. Lekin agar price is level ko maintain karne mein nakam hoti hai, to

MACD indicator buying zone mein, apni signal line ke upar hai. Pichle haftay bears ke liye koi significant opportunities nahi thi, kyunki chhoti-moti intraday corrections bhi significant resistance face kar rahi thi. Pair steadily climb karta raha, jo ke potential downturn ka ishara hai. Wednesday ki candle choti thi, jo possible decline ko signal kar rahi thi, aur agle din mein neeche push karne ki koshish hui lekin market steady rahi, sirf slight decrease dekhne ko mila, jo un sellers ko attract kar sakta hai jo high levels se correction ki umeed kar rahe the. Ye situation Friday tak rahi jab important U.S. news release hui, followed by Federal Reserve Chair ka speech aur new home sales data, jo price mein sharp surge ka sabab bana, jis se kai traders ko significant losses hue, khaaskar un logon ko jo stop orders par trade kar rahe the.
Fibonacci analysis use karte hue, pehli wave ke bottom par target level 161.7 tak pohonch gaya hai, aur 199 tak pohonchne ka bhi mumkin hai. Ab kyunki initial target achieve ho gaya hai aur price late 2023 ke important high se upar chali gayi hai, ek potential sell-off area ban sakta hai. CCI indicator upper overbought zone mein enter kar gaya hai aur lagta hai ke jaldi hi wahan se exit karega. Ek mirrored level form ho sakta hai is upward trend ke peak par chhote time frame mein.

EUR/USD ka exchange rate pichle sessions se significant rise show kar raha hai aur 100-day moving average ke upar 1.1140 par new resistance level ko break kar chuka hai, jo dominant buying force ko indicate karta hai jo price ko 37.8% Fibonacci retracement level 1.1050 ke upar rakhegi. US dollar index neutral base downtrend line ke neeche 102.30 par rebound ho gaya hai, jo pair ko 1.1080 tak push kar sakta hai as a divergence level. 1.0990 range mein sharp increase ne further gains ke darwaze khol diye hain agar prices mid-line of the symmetrical triangle se upar chali jati hai. MACD indicator red trigger line ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo bullish technical outlook ko suggest karta hai. RSI 45 par stabilize ho gaya hai, jo neutral

Jo cheez chaho us se daro. Markets aksar Fed se zyada expect karte hain jo ke woh provide karne ke qabil hota hai, aur yeh central bank ke liye criticism ka sabab ban sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, investors ne yeh raai di ke Alan Greenspan ne 2000 mein dot-com collapse ke baad excessively interest rates reduce kiye. 2008 mein Ben Bernanke ne expansionary monetary policy implement ki jo ke economy mein liquidity ke overabundance ka sabab bani. Janet Yellen ne mid-2010s mein borrowing costs ko lambe arsay tak low rakha. Lagta hai ke Jerome Powell ne inflationary pressures ko dair mein acknowledge kiya, aur ab woh potential recession ke early signs ko pehchanne mein dair kar raha hai.
Yeh inevitable hai ke markets kabhi kabhi disappointed honge, lekin yeh largely unki wishful thinking ki capacity ka natija hai. Ek misaal ke taur par US Treasury bond yields mein izafa hua Fed ke latest tightening cycle ke start hone se pehle. Lekin ab US Treasuries ke yields gir rahe hain jab ke central bank ne abhi tak monetary policy ko loosen nahi kiya. Market proactive manner mein act kar raha hai, lekin iski appetite considerable hai.

Derivatives market yeh indicate kar raha hai ke Fed ka monetary expansion 2025 tak 200 basis points tak pohanch sakta hai, aur 2024 ke end tak 100 basis points tak. Investors September aur December mein federal funds rate mein 25-basis-point reduction expect kar rahe hain, aur November mein potential additional 50-basis-point cut bhi ho sakta hai. Lekin history yeh dikhati hai ke abrupt reduction in monetary policy stock indices ke decline ke risk ko barha sakta hai. Market ke nazar se, central bank ka gradual approach achha hota hai instead of sudden policy change. Yeh natija pichlay 14 full Fed cycles ke analysis se draw kiya ja sakta hai.

Markets abhi tak federal funds rate ke reduction par focused hain, jab ke US mein upcoming presidential elections seemingly back seat le chuki hain. Bank of America ke analysis ke mutabiq, pichlay 13 cases mein se 10 mein, USD index vote se 70 din pehle rise kiya. Yeh 77% times ke liye is period mein hua. Unsurprisingly, increased political uncertainty US dollar ko ek safe-haven asset ke tor par support det

Euro ek procyclical currency hai, is liye global economy ka growth iski value ko boost karta hai. Lekin EURUSD pair ke liye correction ka faida ho sakta hai pehle ke yeh apna upward trajectory continue kare. Jab tak pair 1.118 ke neeche trade kar raha hai, optimal strategy euro ko sell karne ki suggest karti hai.
Dollar Index thoda sa barha hai jab ke US Durable goods 9.9% par strong aaye. Ab hume dekhna hai ke rise 101.50-101.75 tak extend hota hai ya nahi. PCE inflation — jo ke Fed ka favored gauge of price growth hai — Friday ko due hai. Euro 1.1150-1.11 tak wapas gir sakta hai near term mein jab tak woh 1.1250/1.1300 ke neeche hai. USDJPY ko wapas bullish hone ke liye 145 se zyada rise karna hoga jab ke EURJPY kuch arsa ke liye 160-164 range mein reh sakta hai. Pound hamari mentioned resistance 1.3250 ke neeche kaafi acha hold kar raha hai aur jald hi 1.13 ya neeche gir sakta hai. Aussie 0.68 se upar rise nahi kar saka aur 0.6750 se neeche break ho sakta hai jo 0.67-0.6650 tak girne ka sabab ban sakta hai. USDCNY ko wapas 7.18 tak rise karne ke liye 7.12 ke upar sustain rehna hoga. EURINR agle sessions mein 93-92 tak wapas gir sakta hai jab tak woh 94 ke neeche hai. USDINR shayad near term mein 84.00-83.75 region ke andar trade karta rahe.

US Treasury aur German yields thoda se bounce hue hain. Lekin yeh short-lived ho sakta hai. Resistances dono yields par hain jo corrective rise mein upside ko cap kar sakti hain. Broader view bearish rehne ka continue karta hai. German aur Treasury yields wapas girne ke liye aur downtrend ko resume karne ke liye tayar lagte hain. 10Yr GoI lower aur stable rehne ka continue karta hai. Bias negative hai ke support break ho aur eventually gir jaye.

Dow Jones aur Nifty ke paas 41800-42000 aur 25500 tak rise hone ka room hai. DAX abhi tak apni resistance ke neeche hold kar raha hai. Apni resistance ke clear break hone ke baad increased bullishness ya phir fallback ka dar hai. Nikkei apni support ke upar sustain kar raha hai aur jab tak woh upar hai, near term view bullish rehne ka hai. Shanghai outlook bearish hai aur 2800 tak girne ke liye tayar hai.

Crude prices kaafi barh gaye hain aur near term mein aage further bullish lagte hain. Gold aur Silver thoda se dip hue hain lekin unke key resistance tak rise hone ke chances tab tak intact hain jab tak woh apni immediate support ke upar hold karte hain. Copper higher rehne ka continue karta hai aur 4.4 tak bullish lagta hai. Natural gas kuch arsay ke liye 2.0-2.3 range mein bound rehne ka lagta haihai

Humari behas mein hum EUR/USD currency pair ke current pricing behaviour ka ghehraai se tajzia kar rahe hain. Weekly time frame par EUR/USD ke behaviour ko dekh kar maine yeh faisla kiya ke yeh acha waqt hai pair ko khareedne ka. Analysis ke mutabiq price ke kisi bhi critical resistance level tak pohnchne se pehle rukne ke imkanaan bohot kam hain, jo ke weekly chart par highlight kiya gaya hai. Kuch mahine pehle, price ne ek upward correction ke doran crucial 61.9% Fibonacci retracement level tak uchaal li thi, lekin phir wapas pull back kiya. Guzishta haftay EUR/USD phir se is level ke qareeb pohnch gaya tha; aur aaj tak yeh sirf 59 pips door hai. Yeh qurbat ek favorable opportunity dikhati hai ke long position open ki jaye, aur yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price is level ko cross kar jaye, magar mein apni position ko target pohnchne par close karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Haal hi mein, ECB officials ne ishara diya hai ke September mein rate cut lazmi nahi hai, aur yeh bhi zaroori nahi ke European inflation 2% target ke qareeb aa rahi ho.



Hamari outlook mutafiq hai, aur recent confirmations bhi is baat ko support karte hain. Magar EUR/USD apni ascending channel ke andar ek downward pullback ka samna kar raha hai. Naya support level 1.1111, jisne guzishta haftay ke decline ko roka tha, khaas tor par dekhne layak hai. Jab ke main is ko sirf technical perspective se confirm nahi kar sakta, mujhe shak hai ke hum is support level ko is haftay ke aakhir mein phir dekh sakte hain. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to upward trend ko H4 time frame mein disruption ho sakti hai, lekin yeh zaroori nahi ke yeh ek complete reversal signal ho—bas pichlay haftay se zyada gehra correction ho sakta hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke H4 par ek local peak banegi, jo ke 1.1196 level ke qareeb hogi, lekin is ko confirm karne mein aik din lag sakta hai. Yeh surat-e-haal tabdeel bhi ho sakti hai, magar bullish outlook abhi tak valid hai. Aaj American traders ke sentiment mein tabdeeli wazeh hai jabke U.S. stock markets ne decline kiya, jo ke dollar ko mazid mazboot kar raha hai aur EUR/USD ko 1.1149 tak le aaya hai.

EUR/USD ke price behavior ke hawale se baat karte hain. Jab se EUR/USD pair ne apni sideways movement se breakout kiya hai, trading area mein mazeed bearish movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai, shayad 1.1129 tak. Ek selling ka attempt 12th figure se ho sakta hai, lekin humein dekhna hoga ke Asian session kaise unfold hota hai. Mein kal is situation ko closely monitor karne ka plan kar raha hoon taake next session ke liye faisla kar saku. Mujhe lagta hai ke ek aur bearish move ki koshish hogi, jisme technical taur par 13th figure tak pohanchne ka imkaan hai. Waisay, agar 1.1119 ke aas-paas support barqarar rahti hai, tou path lagbhag 1.1029 tak ja sakta hai. Pair ne ek correction ka signal diya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke intraday sales chhoti duration ke liye munasib ho sakti hain. Correction ke baad, dobara se assessment karna zaroori hai, kyun ke bulls apna uptrend phir se shuru kar sakte hain, magar bears bhi iss situation ka faida utha sakte hain. Abhi ke liye mein kuch bearish movement ki umeed kar raha hoon, halankeh overall bullish trend ko dobara dekhne ki zaroorat hai.

Aaj ki daily candle jo ke EUR/USD currency pair par price action system ke through overhang analysis se dekhi gayi, ek inside bar dikhati hai jo ke peechlay din ki candle ke andar bani hai, aur yeh PPR (Potential Price Reversal) signal ko buy karne ka ek indication hai, candle analysis ke mutabiq. Koi clear indicator nahi mil raha jo yeh bataye ke bullish trend se bearish trend mein shift ho raha hai, halankeh instrument ab overbought zone mein hai US dollar ke devaluation ki wajah se. Is ne uske counterparts aur precious metals ko bhi upar push kiya hai. Aaj ki daily candle peechlay din ki abnormal candle ka ek correction dikhati hai, jo ke support level 1.1156 tak pohanchi hai. Yeh pichli candle ke andar ek inside bar bana raha hai, jo ke upper aur lower boundaries se pending orders ke saath trade kiya ja sakta hai taake trend continue ho sake. Bulls ne apni upward momentum temporarily rok di hai, magar abhi tak koi break ya sell signal nahi mila, isliye focus purchases par hi hona chahiye.

Hamari guftagu ka nuktah EUR/USD currency pair ke pricing behavior ka mojooda jaiza hai. Jab se EUR/USD pair ne apne sideways movement se break kiya hai, trading area zyada bearish ho sakta hai, shayad 1.1129 ki taraf. Sales ki koshish 12th figure se ho sakti hai, magar humein dekhna hoga ke Asian session kaise unfold hota hai. Main kal is situation ko dheere se dekhunga aur agle session ka faisla kal ki roshni mein karunga. Mujhe ek aur bearish move ki umeed hai, technical possibility ke sath 13th figure tak pahunchne ki. Waise agar 1.1119 ke aas-paas support hai, to raasta 1.1029 tak extend ho sakta hai. Pair ne ek correction signal diya hai, jo ke intraday sales ke liye chhoti periods ke liye suitable ho sakti hai. Ek certain level ki correction ke baad, dubara se reassess karna zaroori hai, kyunki bulls apne uptrend ko resume kar sakte hain, lekin bears bhi is situation ka faida utha sakte hain. Filhal, mujhe kuch bearish movement ki umeed hai, lekin overall bullish trend ko revise karna hoga.


Aaj ki daily candle, EUR/USD currency pair ke price action system ka overhang analysis ke zariye, pichle din ki candle ke andar ek inside bar ko dikhati hai, jo ke candle analysis ke base par buying ke liye ek PPR (Potential Price Reversal) signal hai. Koi clear indicators nahi hain jo bullish trend ko bearish mein shift karne ka ishaara karte hain, halankeh instrument overbought zone mein hai US dollar ki devaluation ki wajah se. Yeh uski counterparts, aur precious metals ko upward push kiya hai. Current daily candle pichle din ki abnormal candle ka correction dikhati hai, jo ke 1.1156 ke support level tak pahunch gayi hai. Last candle ke andar position mein, yeh ek inside bar banati hai jo ke trading ke liye upper aur lower boundaries se pending orders ke saath trend ko continue kar sakti hai. Bulls ne apni upward momentum ko temporarily roka hai. Lekin, koi break ya sell signals nahi hain jo ke purchases par dhyan dene ka ishaara dete hain.

Euro ki trading abhi bhi choppy aur naqeeb hai, jahan key levels agle direction ke indicators ke tor par kaam karte hain. Yeh pair aksar US dollar ki overall strength ya weakness ka barometer ke tor par dekha jata hai aur doosri currency pairs ke liye secondary indicator ka kaam karta hai. Euro ki ahemiyat ke wajah se, bohot se traders iski movements ko broader market trends ko gauge karne ke liye dekhte hain.

Tuesday ko, euro ne subah ke waqt zyada movement nahi dikhayi, jo ke bada ajeeb nahi hai kyunki market sentiment ko affect karne wale koi major economic news nahi thi. Market thoda tight lag rahi hai, isliye 1.11 level ko dekhna bahut zaroori hai, jo ke 4-hour aur daily charts par key area of support hai. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai, to yeh 1.10 level tak decline ka signal de sakta hai, jo market sentiment mein potential shift ko indicate kar sakta hai.

Overall, euro ka trading noisy aur sideways rehne ka imkaan hai. Yeh samajh aata hai kyunki European Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve dono loose monetary policy ko maintain kar rahe hain. Euro ke recent recovery ke bawajood, aisa lagta hai ke currency abhi current levels par kaafi overvalued ho sakti hai.

1.1250 level ek significant resistance barrier ke tor par kaam karta hai. Agar euro is level ko break kar leti hai, to yeh ek mazid strong move ke signal de sakta hai. Filhaal ke liye, market major levels ke beech move karna pasand kar rahi hai, 1.12 level ko upar test karte hue aur 1.11 level ke aas-paas support dekhte hue. Yeh range-bound behavior continued uncertainty aur decisive factors ke lack ko reflect karta hai jo currency ko kisi bhi direction mein push karen. Is environment mein, traders in key levels ko closely monitor karte rahenge signs of break ya breakdown ke liye.