یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

/USD 1.1150 se upar qaim hai, jab ke Thursday ko yeh positive territory mein band hua. Qareeb ke doran ke technical nazariyat yeh darust karte hain ke bullish potential ab bhi barqarar hai. Agar kisi aala darja ka data nahi aata, to investors risk perception mein tabdeeli par react kar sakte hain. EUR/USD gained bullish momentum, but Thursday was down 0.4%. Yeh jo Friday subah kuch zyada upar trading kar raha hai, 1.1150 ke upar. US dollar (USD) ne Thursday ko US session ke shuruat par thoda jump kiya jab US Labor Department ki taraf se data release hua.

Is data ne dikhaya ke weekly Initial Jobless Claims 231,000 se gir kar 219,000 ho gaye. Lekin jab risk flows ne financial market ki harkaat ko dominate kiya, to dollar dobara bearish pressure mein aa gaya, jo EUR/USD ko upar jane ka mauqa diya.

Aaj, US economic calendar par kisi aala darja ka data nahi hai. Baad mein, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ke President Patrick Harker, jo FOMC ke non-voting member hain, ek taqreer dene wale hain.

Is ke ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ki President Christine Lagarde 2024 mein Michel Camdessus Lecture on Central Banking mein bolne wali hain. Kai ECB policymakers ne kaha hai ke woh December tak intezar karna chahte hain taake mazeed data hasil kar sakein, phir key interest rate ko phir se kam karne ka faisla karein.

Halankeh yeh bohot naummeed nahi hai, agar Lagarde October mein rate cut ka darwaza khula chhodti hain to euro apne rivals ke muqablay mein kamzor ho sakta hai. Is dauran, US stock index futures aaj thode se neeche trade kar rahe hain jab ke Wall Street ke major indexes ne Thursday ko behtareen izafa kiya.

Agar din ke dusre hisson mein continued upside risk dekha gaya to yeh USD ko aur neecha kheench sakta hai aur EUR/USD ko weekend tak aur upar le ja sakta hai

EUR/USD

Euro, jo ke abhi major currencies ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, ne Wednesday ki New York trading session ke dauran apne recent highs 1.1055 se significant decline dekha. Market sentiment abhi zyada ter ECB ke September mein ek aur interest rate cut ki umeed ke asar mein hai. Is move ke anticipation ne intensity gain ki hai jab inflation rates gir rahe hain, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh rate-cutting cycle September ke baad bhi barh sakta hai. Abhi spot price 1.1016 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

ECB ke potential interest rate decisions ka andaza lagane ke liye investors German aur Eurozone HICP data ka closely jaiza lenge jo Thursday aur Friday ko release honge. Analysts expect karte hain ke Eurozone ka annual headline HICP, jo ke overall inflation ko measure karta hai, 2.3% tak decelerate karega, jab ke core HICP, jo ke volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.8% tak moderate hoga.

**EUR/USD ke fundamentals:**ECB ke aur zyada interest rate cuts ki umeed badh gayi hai Eurozone ke economic outlook aur wage growth slowdown ke hawale se barhati hui uncertainties ki wajah se. Hiraan kun baat yeh hai ke Eurozone ki economic activity August mein unexpected upar gayi, flash HCOB PMI report ke mutabiq. Magar yeh uptick ziada ter France mein Olympic Games ki wajah se aayi demand ki wajah se hua. Economists isay temporary boost samajhte hain, naa ke kisi fundamental economic change ko.

ECB ke Chief Economist Philip Lane ne JH Symposium ke dauran Saturday ko yeh kaha ke restrictive monetary policy ki zarurat hai. Lane ne inflation ke khilaf ladai mein ki gayi taraqqi ko acknowledge kiya, magar yeh bhi kaha ke lambi muddat tak success ka koi yaqeen nahi hai. Unki baat ne ECB ke inflationary pressures ko manage karne aur market expectations ko guide karne ke challenges ko ujagar kiya.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Wednesday ko pair 1.1010 level ke neeche slip kar gaya jab buyers ko upward momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil hui. Pair abhi 50-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.0962 par hai, magar agar decline jari rehta hai to price 20-day EMA ke paas wapas aa sakti hai, jo ke 1.1050 ke qareeb hai. EUR/USD buyers ke liye resistance 14-day SMA par 1.1026 ke aas-paas dekhi ja sakti hai.

Pair ko 1.1000 ke crucial psychological level ke breach hone ka khatra hai. Technical indicators jaise ke MACD aur RSI bearish outlook ki taraf ishara karte hain. Agar downward momentum barqarar rehti hai, to traders ko apni positions ka jaiza lena hoga aur potential reversals ke liye hoshiyaar rehna hoga

### EUR/USD Weekly Analysis

Main Euro Dollar pair ka weekly chart par jaiza le raha hoon. Jab yeh pair 0.9708 ke support ke qareeb trade kar raha tha, to European Central Bank (ECB) ne apni monetary policy ko tight karna shuru kiya. Is wajah se yeh pair resistance 1.11810 tak pohanch gaya. Phir kuch rumors aaye ke Federal Reserve (Fed) apni monetary policy ko tighten karna band kar dega. Us waqt ECB ke bare mein koi baat nahi ho rahi thi, lekin baad mein pata chala ke ECB ne Fed se pehle apni policy ko tight karna band kar diya.

Eurozone mein inflation ne 2% ka target achieve kar liya, aur ECB ko interest rates kaatne pad gaye. Jab Fed ne apni tightening policy band karne ka elan kiya, to is waqt pair 1.05588 par trade kar raha tha aur yeh rise karna shuru hua. Lekin baad mein yeh bhi pata chala ke Fed interest rates nahi kaat raha kyunki inflation ab bhi high thi. Phir jab inflation stagnate ho gayi, to yeh pair wapas previous lows par chala gaya aur range mein trade karne laga.

Ab agle Fed ke bayan se pehle, pair phir se 1.11810 ke resistance ki taraf barh raha hai. Inflation stagnate ho chuki hai aur yeh samajhna mushkil hai ke pair ke is rise ke peeche kya wajah hai. Halankeh Fed interest rates kaat raha hai aur inflation 3.2% par hai, yeh itna positive nahi lagta. Mera khayal hai ke pair phir se 1.07684 ke levels ke qareeb laut aayega, kyunki mujhe nahi lagta ke aisi inflation ke sath uptrend jaari rahega.

Mujhe lagta hai ke market ki current halat ko dekhte hue, yeh pair wapas purani low levels ki taraf aa sakta hai. Is waqt ke market dynamics aur economic indicators ko samajhna zaroori hai. Fed ke decisions ka direct asar currency pairs par hota hai, aur jab tak inflation ke numbers itne high hain, tab tak investor confidence mein kami aa sakti hai.

Is waqt EUR/USD pair ka trend thoda uncertain hai. Market participants ko chahiye ke woh Federal Reserve ke announcements aur inflation ki taraf dekhte rahein. Mujhe lagta hai ke short-term mein range-bound trading dekhne ko milegi, jab tak clear direction nahi milti. In sab factors ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, trading decisions lena behad zaroori hai, aur cautious approach rakhna behtar hoga.

Is waqt EUR/USD trading pair mein thodi stability hai kyun ke traders Eurozone aur Germany ke aham fundamental data ka intizaar kar rahe hain. Aane wale "Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)" reports manufacturing aur services sectors ki performance ke bare mein valuable insights dein gi. Agar PMI reading strong hoti hai, to euro ki qeemat mein izafa ho sakta hai, lekin agar reading weak hoti hai, to yeh euro par pressure daal sakti hai. U.S. Dollar bhi challenges ka samna kar sakta hai kyun ke traders ko umeed hai ke Federal Reserve iss saal mazeed interest rate cuts kar sakti hai. Kam interest rates dollar-denominated assets ko kam attractive bana deti hain.Dosri taraf, European Central Bank (ECB) ki President Christine Lagarde ne adaptable monetary policy ki zaroorat ko emphasize kiya hai, jo ke yeh darshata hai ke ECB economic developments ko dekh kar apni approach ko adjust kar sakti hai. Yeh flexibility euro ke liye ek dynamic environment create kar sakti hai, jo mukhtalif economic signals par react karega.Technical analysis ki agar baat ki jaye, to EUR/USD pair ne kuch aham movements show ki hain. Hali mein, yeh aham resistance levels 1.1120 aur 1.1135 ko cross kar gaya hai, aur ek significant bearish trend line ko break kar diya hai. Lekin filhaal yeh pair 1.1180 ke resistance ke paas ruk gaya hai, jo mazeed gains ko rok sakta hai. Agar price is resistance ko break karta hai, to 1.1200 ka target bana sakta hai, aur agar upward momentum jari raha, to 1.1250 tak bhi pohoch sakta hai.Downside par, immediate support 1.1140 par hai; agar yeh level break hota hai, to 1.1120 ka test ho sakta hai. Agar girawat barh gayi, to pair 1.1060 aur shayad 1.1020 tak gir sakta hai. Abhi ke liye, 4-hour chart par price 100 aur 200 simple moving averages ke upar trade kar rahi hai, jo ke ek generally positive outlook show kar rahi hai. Lekin traders ko 1.1180 ke resistance par khas tawajjo deni chahiye, kyun ke yeh ek aham area hai, jo potential reversal ke signs de sakta hai.Summary mein, dono fundamental aur technical factors EUR/USD pair ke outlook ko shape kar rahe hain, jo ek complex trading environment create kar raha hai. Traders ko careful trading ki zaroorat hogi.

EURUSD dusre din ke liye niche trade kar rahi hai aur blue moving average ke neeche wapas aa gayi hai chaar ghante ke chart par, jo ke continued decline ka ishara hai, aur support 1.0877 par mil raha hai. Is measure par poora bharosa nahi hai. Indicators already bohot strong oversold conditions dikhate hain, aur bulls ke market mein wapas aane ki possibility ko nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Isliye, agar quotes 1.0877 level ke neeche rehti hain, to main downward trend ke continue hone ki ummeed karta hoon. Doosri scenario ko bhi nahi bhoolna chahiye, agar quotes 1.0927 resistance ke upar wapas aati hain, to main long-term rise aur ek aur uchaai ki ummeed karta hoon. EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue. Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge. Iske ilawa, technical analysis ke context mein, yeh scenario naye participants ko bhi attract kar sakta hai jo pehle cautious ya bullish trend ke confirmation ka wait kar rahe the. In technical indicators ka alignment unhe confirmation data hai, jo ek stronger conviction offer karta hai ke uptrend

Aaj hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price movements ka analysis kar rahe hain. European currency ka limited decline interest rate cut ke baad yeh suggest karta hai ke market ne is event ko pehle se anticipate kar liya tha, jisse iska impact kam ho gaya. Aane wali U.S. ki news market par zyada asar daal sakti hai, aur agar koi khaas surprise nahi hota, to EUR/USD naye highs ko chhoo sakta hai. Maine aap ke screenshots dekhe, aur aap thodi bearish sentiment dikhate hue price girne ki umeed kar rahe hain, lekin technical indicators filhal EUR/USD ki growth ko favour kar rahe hain. Recent aur older data ke beech koi significant farq nahi hai jo yeh suggest kare ke market gir raha hai. Main support level 1.1060 ke aas paas buying opportunity dekh raha hoon, kyun ke price solid aur bullish lag raha hai. EUR/USD pair ne Monday ko calmly upward movement continue ki. Waise kehne ki zaroorat nahi hai ke koi significant macroeconomic ya fundamental events nahi hue hain kal. Dollar bas phir se gir raha hai, aur iske liye koi special justification ki zaroorat nahi hai. Jab tak Federal Reserve ke rate decision ka expectation market mein hai, yahi ek factor hai jo dollar ke future ko tay karega.Agar hum thoda recap karen to, August ke shuru mein market expectations sharp increase hui thi ke Fed September mein 50-point ka rate cut karega. Lekin, kisi bhi Fed member ne explicitly 0.5% cut ka zikar nahi kiya tha, bas indirect hints diye gaye the. Iss ke bawajood market ne is scenario ko poori tarah se apna liya tha, aur poora saal dollar ko sell karta raha. September tak Fed shayad teen dafa se zyada rate cut nahi karega. Lekin ab jab market ne poora saal is cut ki umeed rakhi, toh expectations waise hi barh gayi hain, aur sab 50-point cuts ka wait kar rahe hain.August ke mid tak yeh samajh aagaya tha ke market apni dovish expectations ke saath thoda jaldi kar raha hai, lekin September ke start mein aggressive easing ki umeed wapas dominate kar gayi. Yani market apni hi swings ke chakkar mein hai, aur apni changing expectations ke hisaab se react kar raha hai, jab ke Fed ab tak ek dafa bhi key rate nahi giraaya. Hamain yeh shak hai ke Wednesday ko 0.5% ka rate cut ho ga.

EURUSD market ka jaiza liya aur H4 time frame chart pe analysis ki koshish ki, jo ke kal raat ke market trend ki wajah se kaafi dilchasp lag raha tha. Main ne dekha ke ek achi upar janay ki opportunity phir se ubharti hui nazar aayi. Aik reversal signal bhi dikhayi diya, jahan pichlay chand dinon mein price movement zyada tar sellers ke qabze mein tha jo ke neeche lay janay ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart pe yeh dekhne ko mila ke bearish attempt abhi tak 1.1004 level ko break nahi kar Saka jo is hafte ke liye ek support ka kaam kar raha hai. Is ka matlab yeh hai ke agar sellers is support area ko na tor sakay, to trend upar ki taraf move karna shuru kar sakta hai. Is liye, main aik strong trading plan bana raha hoon taake andaza laga sako ke price kab upar janay shuru hogi aur agla target kahan ho sakta hai, H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Saath hi main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundaries ka bhi istemal kar raha hoon. EURUSD ka price movement H4 time frame chart pe reversal signal dikha raha hai, jo ke pichlay bearish correction candlestick ke shape se pehlay tha. Daily time frame main hum yeh dekh saktay hain ke pichlay hafte ke trading session main buyers apna bullish trend qaim rakhne mein nakam rahe kyun ke sellers ka pressure zyada ho gaya aur market correction ki taraf chal diya.

Is hafte bhi bearish attempt jari hai, lekin pichlay Thursday ko accha buying interest dekhne ko mila, jis ne candlestick position ko improve kar diya aur market ko bullish rally ka rasta diya jaise ke August ke end mein dekhne ko mila tha. Stochastics ka additional analysis bhi dekha, jahan signal line 80 zone tak pohanch chuki hai, jo market ke mazeed barhnay ka ishara deti hai. Aaj bhi buyers ko momentum mil sakta hai ke woh EURUSD price ko aagay barhane mein kaamiyab hoon.

Filhaal market movement 1.1078 ke aas paas hai aur main aglay izafay ka signal intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke aaj dopahar tak market transactions mein koi khaas volatility nahi dekhne ko mili. Pichlay mahine ke benchmark ke mutabiq, ek stable izafa dekhne ko mil raha hai jo ke bich bich mein downward corrections ke sath tha. Market zyada bullish move kar raha hai, lekin main tab tak wait karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko break nahi kar lete, taake buy signal valid ho sake. Aaj ke market movement ke dauran middle position hai

### EUR/USD Price Analysis in Roman Urdu

Main ab EUR/USD currency pair ka real-time pricing analysis kar raha hoon. 4-hour chart ke mutabiq, bulls phir se upward trend ko resume karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Price 1.1068 par 25% support level se upar hai, jo ke overall bullish trend aur kamzor bearish market ko darshata hai. Lekin price abhi bhi 1.1151 ke high se neeche hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke bulls shayad jald is resistance ko todne ki koshish karen. Is liye, kuch consolidation ke baad bullish movement ki umeed hai.

Kal, lekin sellers ne market mein dakhil hone ki koshish ki, lekin wo pehle se kamzor nazar aaye, jo ek kamzor close ka sabab bana. Buyers apne positions bech rahe hain lekin volume kam hone ki wajah se yeh shayad bulls ke liye bears ko overpower karna mushkil ho. Hourly chart par bearish movement ka silsila jari hai, jismein lagataar neeche ki taraf waves dekhi ja rahi hain. Price reversal ka aksar mumkin hai, jo 1.1048 se 1.1007 ke zone mein ho sakta hai.

Federal Reserve ke Chairman ka cautious approach, Fed ki policy adjustments ko samjhane mein, market ko ek balanced flow mein rakhne mein madadgar sabit hota hai. Interest rate markets mein 65% chance hai ke FOMC ke November 7 rate call par koi aage ka action nahi hoga. Lekin technical indicators ke mutabiq, bulls ab bhi maujood hain. Is liye, agar price 1.1135 ke upar close hota hai, to yeh ek nayi bull market ko trigger kar sakta hai jo August ke high 1.1200 ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Agar price mein koi zyada badhoti hoti hai, to yeh ascending channel ke upper edge par 1.1275 ko target kar sakta hai. Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke yeh 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ke saath overlap karta hai, jo 2021-2022 ke downtrend ka hai. Agar is level ko tod diya gaya, to 161.8% Fibonacci extension jo 1.1325 par hai, tak bhi badh sakta hai.

Agar price 20-day SMA jo 1.1090 par hai, ke neeche girta hai, to yeh phir se 1.1000 ke level par support dhund sakta hai. 50-day SMA agla dekha ja sakta hai jo kareeb 1.0980 par hai. Is ke alawa, 1.0900-1.0940 ka area zyada dhyan kheench sakta hai kyun ke yeh channel ki lower boundary, long-term downtrend line, aur 50% Fibonacci mark ke nazdeek hai.

Olga, aapko bhi hello, dosto. Aap kaise hain? Aur EUR/USD par trading kaise chal rahi hai? Is hafte, bears phir se zyada faida nahi utha paye, jabke unhon ne neeche pressure dalne ki koshish ki, lekin wo 1.1070 ke neeche nahi aa sake. Agar hum chaar ghante ke chart par nazar daalain, toh abhi tak ek northern channel mein movement ban chuki hai, aur jab 1.1070 ko teesri dafa re-test kiya gaya, toh bulls ne isko dobara upar ki taraf dhakel diya.

Iss hafte mein kaafi dynamic movement dekhne ko mila, khas taur par Wednesday raat tak, jab log Fed aur rate announcement ka intezar kar rahe the. Yeh sabse bada driver hai jo American dollar ke liye negative rahega, kyun ke rate ko kam kiya gaya hai aur aage bhi easing hoti rahegi. Is liye, ab humein northern highs par focus karna chahiye, lekin filhal 1.1190 par ek challenge hai, jahan bulls abhi tak is resistance ko paar nahi kar paye hain.

Mujhe nahi lagta ke buyers apne positions itni aasani se chhod denge. Agar correction 1.11-1.1120 ki taraf hoti hai, toh shayad opening par pair wahan tak correction karegi. Phir support par ek naya dhakka dekar, upar ki taraf rebound ho sakta hai. Ricochet buyers is bullish trend ko aage badhane ki koshish karte rahenge. Yeh dono time frames par, hourly aur four-hour par, dekha ja sakta hai ke kaise buyers ko mauka milega.

H4 par mujhe ascending channel mein movement nazar aa rahi hai, jahan neeche ki taraf ki border par jab bhi touch hoga, toh buyers us par kharidari karenge. Iska general goal ab bhi 1.1270 tak pahunchna hai, jo ke abhi tak implementation stage mein hai. Is liye, agar yeh bullish trend continue karta hai, toh hum ummid kar sakte hain ke bulls isko upar ki taraf le ja sakte hain.

Aakhir mein, yeh kehna zaroori hai ke traders ko market ke dynamics par dhyan dena hoga, kyunki Fed ke decisions ka asar abhi bhi market par dekhne ko milega. Aage chal kar, agar koi naya catalyst aata hai, toh yeh sab kuch badal bhi sakta hai. Lekin filhal, lagta hai ke bulls ka control bana rahega.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Aaj, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh market me utar-chadhaw badhega. Euro/dollar ka joda piche kuch dino se sakht sideways range me karobar kar raha hai. Is tarah, dono simton me breakout ka waqt aa gaya hai. To aaiye macroeconomic data par market ke radde amal par tawajjoh markuz karein.
Agar qimat badh jati hai to, mere pas short positions ki wajah hogi. Agar yah niche chala jata hai to, shayad long jane ke liye suratehal munasib hongi.
Sud ki sherah ooper ki taraf 1.1230 aur niche ki taraf 1.1100 hain.
Is dauran, mai beghair kisi khuli trade ke sath fence par hun. Agar European statistics aaj market me halchal macha dein to mai market me dakhil ho jaunga.
Koi tarjihat nahin hain, lehaza market ke radde amal ki taraf se rahnumai hasil karna qabile qadar hai. Short positions kholna 1.1230-1.1260 ke ilaqe me relevant hoga, long positions kholna -taqriban 1.1100-1.1080 par. Aaiye dekhte hain keh qimat pahle kahan jati hai.

trading hafte mein Euro 1.12 level tak barh gaya, jo ek ahm psychological rukawat hai aur is par khaas tawajjo di ja rahi hai. Ye level is liye ahm hai kyunke traders Federal Reserve ke haal ke rate cuts ke asraat ko nazar rakh rahe hain. Halankeh US dollar 50 basis points gir gaya hai, lekin isne mazbooti dikhayi hai, jo iski mustaqbil ki taraf ko le kar sawaal uthata hai. Tareekhi tor par, itne bade rate cut ka matlab gehri maashi pareshaniyaan ho sakti hain, is liye bohot se log dekh rahe hain ke ye agle hafton mein kaise samne aata hai.
Agar US ma'ashiyat ko bohot si masail ka samna hai, to Euro ek mehfooz mauqa nahi ban sakta. Yeh mumkin hai ke hum Euro mein ek choti muddat ki barhoti dekhein, sirf ye phir se palat kar kamzor ho jaye. Pichle tajurbe, jaise ke 2007 ka market crash jo 2006 ke rate cut ke baad aaya, yeh darshata hai ke hum abhi itne intehai halat mein nahi hain, lekin kuch parallels hain jo dekhne layak hain.

Is waqt, US Treasuries aur bond market ko dekhna zaroori hai, utasalar German aur US Treasuries ke darmiyan yield spread. Agar 1.12 ke upar break hota hai, to Euro ko 1.15 ke ird-gird dusri ahm rukawat ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jahan mazboot rukawat samne aa sakti hai. Agar Euro kamzor hota hai aur 1.11 ya 1.10 ke neeche girta hai, to ye areas mazboot support ka kaam karna chahiye.

Aakhir mein, Euro ki haal ki mazbooti ek temporary haalat ho sakti hai, jo ke broader maashi surat-e-haal par mabni hai. Federal Reserve ki karwaiyan aur global bond market ka reaction ye tay karega ke kya Euro barhata rahega, ya phir ye peechay hatega aur rukawat ka samna karega

USD 1.1150 se upar qaim hai, jab ke Thursday ko yeh positive territory mein band hua. Qareeb ke doran ke technical nazariyat yeh darust karte hain ke bullish potential ab bhi barqarar hai. Agar kisi aala darja ka data nahi aata, to investors risk perception mein tabdeeli par react kar sakte hain. EUR/USD gained bullish momentum, but Thursday was down 0.4%. Yeh jo Friday subah kuch zyada upar trading kar raha hai, 1.1150 ke upar. US dollar (USD) ne Thursday ko US session ke shuruat par thoda jump kiya jab US Labor Department ki taraf se data release hua.
Is data ne dikhaya ke weekly Initial Jobless Claims 231,000 se gir kar 219,000 ho gaye. Lekin jab risk flows ne financial market ki harkaat ko dominate kiya, to dollar dobara bearish pressure mein aa gaya, jo EUR/USD ko upar jane ka mauqa diya.

Aaj, US economic calendar par kisi aala darja ka data nahi hai. Baad mein, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ke President Patrick Harker, jo FOMC ke non-voting member hain, ek taqreer dene wale hain.

Is ke ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ki President Christine Lagarde 2024 mein Michel Camdessus Lecture on Central Banking mein bolne wali hain. Kai ECB policymakers ne kaha hai ke woh December tak intezar karna chahte hain taake mazeed data hasil kar sakein, phir key interest rate ko phir se kam karne ka faisla karein.

Halankeh yeh bohot naummeed nahi hai, agar Lagarde October mein rate cut ka darwaza khula chhodti hain to euro apne rivals ke muqablay mein kamzor ho sakta hai. Is dauran, US stock index futures aaj thode se neeche trade kar rahe hain jab ke Wall Street ke major indexes ne Thursday ko behtareen izafa kiya.

Agar din ke dusre hisson mein continued upside risk dekha gaya to yeh USD ko aur neecha kheench sakta hai aur EUR/USD ko weekend tak aur upar le ja sakta hai

Olga, aapko bhi hello, dosto. Aap kaise hain? Aur EUR/USD par trading kaise chal rahi hai? Is hafte, bears phir se zyada faida nahi utha paye, jabke unhon ne neeche pressure dalne ki koshish ki, lekin wo 1.1070 ke neeche nahi aa sake. Agar hum chaar ghante ke chart par nazar daalain, toh abhi tak ek northern channel mein movement ban chuki hai, aur jab 1.1070 ko teesri dafa re-test kiya gaya, toh bulls ne isko dobara upar ki taraf dhakel diya.

Iss hafte mein kaafi dynamic movement dekhne ko mila, khas taur par Wednesday raat tak, jab log Fed aur rate announcement ka intezar kar rahe the. Yeh sabse bada driver hai jo American dollar ke liye negative rahega, kyun ke rate ko kam kiya gaya hai aur aage bhi easing hoti rahegi. Is liye, ab humein northern highs par focus karna chahiye, lekin filhal 1.1190 par ek challenge hai, jahan bulls abhi tak is resistance ko paar nahi kar paye hain.

Mujhe nahi lagta ke buyers apne positions itni aasani se chhod denge. Agar correction 1.11-1.1120 ki taraf hoti hai, toh shayad opening par pair wahan tak correction karegi. Phir support par ek naya dhakka dekar, upar ki taraf rebound ho sakta hai. Ricochet buyers is bullish trend ko aage badhane ki koshish karte rahenge. Yeh dono time frames par, hourly aur four-hour par, dekha ja sakta hai ke kaise buyers ko mauka milega.

H4 par mujhe ascending channel mein movement nazar aa rahi hai, jahan neeche ki taraf ki border par jab bhi touch hoga, toh buyers us par kharidari karenge. Iska general goal ab bhi 1.1270 tak pahunchna hai, jo ke abhi tak implementation stage mein hai. Is liye, agar yeh bullish trend continue karta hai, toh hum ummid kar sakte hain ke bulls isko upar ki taraf le ja sakte hain.

Aakhir mein, yeh kehna zaroori hai ke traders ko market ke dynamics par dhyan dena hoga, kyunki Fed ke decisions ka asar abhi bhi market par dekhne ko milega. Aage chal kar, agar koi naya catalyst aata hai, toh yeh sab kuch badal bhi sakta hai. Lekin filhal, lagta hai ke bulls ka control bana rahega

EUR/USD

Currency pair ne Monday ke Asian session mein 1.1184 ke high tak pohanchne ke baad tezi dikhai, jo DXY ke kamzor hone ki wajah se tha. Yeh kamzori US employment data ke disappointing numbers ke baad ayi. JOLTS report ne dikhaya ke July mein job vacancies 7.673 million tak gir gayi, jo 8.1 million ke expectations se kam thi aur pichle mahine ke revised figure 7.91 million se bhi neeche thi. Is waqt, EUR/USD 1.1101 ke qareeb trade ho raha hai.

Maujooda market conditions ke madde nazar, US data releases kaafi aham role ada karenge USD ki direction aur, usi ke zariye, EUR/USD pair ka rukh tay karne mein. Traders ab aane walay economic indicators ko ghor se dekh rahe hain, jis ki wajah se volatility ka imkan zyada hai. Resistance levels 1.1202 aur 1.1281 par dekhi ja rahi hain, jo market participants ke liye key targets hain.

**EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:**

JOLTS report ke mutabiq, job openings mein kami ayi hai, jo labor market aur overall economy ke liye aham implications rakhti hai. Job vacancies 7.673 million tak gir gayi hain, jo na sirf forecast se kam hain, balki economic growth mein kamzori ka signal bhi deti hain. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke future interest rate cuts par market speculation barh gaya hai, aur kaafi log 18 September ko 50 basis point cut ki umeed kar rahe hain. Current projections ke mutabiq, 2024 ke akhir tak total 100 basis points tak cuts ho sakte hain, halan ke CME’s FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, 57% chance hai ke Fed is mahine 25 basis points ka chhota cut karega.

European Central Bank (ECB) ke officials bhi Eurozone ke economic outlook ke bare mein fikr mand hain. Piero Cipollone, jo executive board member hain, ne aik interview mein monetary policy ke zyada restrictive hone ke risks ko highlight kiya. Unhon ne is baat par zor diya ke inflation targets aur economic growth ke darmiyan balance bana rehna chahiye. Reuters ke mutabiq, unhon ne kaha ke "humein ensure karna hai ke inflation hamare target par converge kare baghair economy ko zarurat se zyada rokay."

**Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Haal hi ke bounce ke bawajood, spot price thori downward pressure mein hai. Yeh pair pichle hafte ke low 1.1095 ko phir se test kar sakta hai, halan ke is level ke neeche sustain hone ka imkan abhi kam lag raha hai. Jab tak 1.1161 ka resistance level barqarar hai, market stable reh sakta hai. Lekin euro 1.1080 tak gir gaya aur 1.1054 par close hua, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke agle dino mein bearish momentum barh sakta hai.



Agar 1.1100 ka critical level break hota hai, toh yeh 1.1041 tak girne ka rasta khol sakta hai. Dosri taraf, strong resistance level ab 1.1171 par adjust ho gaya hai, pehle yeh 1.1180 tha, jo market ke cautious hone ko dikhata hai. Daily chart par bearish momentum kuch fade hoti hui nazar aa rahi hai, jab ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) thora recovery dikhata hai.

EURUSD market ka jaiza liya aur H4 time frame chart pe analysis ki koshish ki, jo ke kal raat ke market trend ki wajah se kaafi dilchasp lag raha tha. Main ne dekha ke ek achi upar janay ki opportunity phir se ubharti hui nazar aayi. Aik reversal signal bhi dikhayi diya, jahan pichlay chand dinon mein price movement zyada tar sellers ke qabze mein tha jo ke neeche lay janay ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart pe yeh dekhne ko mila ke bearish attempt abhi tak 1.1004 level ko break nahi kar Saka jo is hafte ke liye ek support ka kaam kar raha hai. Is ka matlab yeh hai ke agar sellers is support area ko na tor sakay, to trend upar ki taraf move karna shuru kar sakta hai. Is liye, main aik strong trading plan bana raha hoon taake andaza laga sako ke price kab upar janay shuru hogi aur agla target kahan ho sakta hai, H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Saath hi main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundaries ka bhi istemal kar raha hoon. EURUSD ka price movement H4 time frame chart pe reversal signal dikha raha hai, jo ke pichlay bearish correction candlestick ke shape se pehlay tha. Daily time frame main hum yeh dekh saktay hain ke pichlay hafte ke trading session main buyers apna bullish trend qaim rakhne mein nakam rahe kyun ke sellers ka pressure zyada ho gaya aur market correction ki taraf chal diya. Is hafte bhi bearish attempt jari hai, lekin pichlay Thursday ko accha buying interest dekhne ko mila, jis ne candlestick position ko improve kar diya aur market ko bullish rally ka rasta diya jaise ke August ke end mein dekhne ko mila tha. Stochastics ka additional analysis bhi dekha, jahan signal line 80 zone tak pohanch chuki hai, jo market ke mazeed barhnay ka ishara deti hai. Aaj bhi buyers ko momentum mil sakta hai ke woh EURUSD price ko aagay barhane mein kaamiyab hoon.