Eurusd forum

Aapka tajziya ek strategic approach ko darust karti hai jab aap key levels ke aas paas trading karte hain. 1.10973 par lower channel boundary par buying opportunity par focus karna aapki samajh ko darust karta hai ke is waqt market context mein support levels kaise kaam karte hain. 1.12036 ka target rakhkar, aap khud ko potential upward movement se faida uthane ke liye tayaar kar rahe hain, jo agar haqiqat mein hasil hota hai to yeh mazid strong bullish trend ka ishaara de sakta hai.

1.12036 se correction ki ummeed rakhna bhi samajhdari hai, kyun ke markets aksar significant resistance levels tak pahunchne ke baad pullbacks ka shikaar hoti hain. Is potential ko samajhne se aap behtar risk management kar sakte hain aur subsequent trades ke liye plan kar sakte hain. Agar aapka target achieve hota hai aur bullish movement establish hoti hai, to price action par nazar rakhna bohot zaroori hoga. Is manzar mein bulls ka rawaya unki taqat aur izhar ko zahir karega ke kya woh prices ko aur upar push karne ka irada rakhte hain.

Is ke muqabil, agar 1.10973 par entry point niche ki taraf breach hota hai, to yeh market sentiment mein bearishness ka ishaara hai. Aapka trading strategy mein flexibility rakhna bohot zaroori hai, taake aap naye information ke mutabiq apne plan ko dobara samajh sakein. Is level ke neeche breach hone par buying opportunities ko dobara sochna pad sakta hai, kyun ke yeh yeh darust karta hai ke market sellers ke haq mein hai. Is adjustment mein naye support levels ki talash ya trend reversal ka behtar confirmation ka intezar shamil ho sakta hai.

Is dynamic environment mein, disciplined approach rakhna zaroori hai. Apne capital ko bachane ke liye stop-loss orders implement karne par ghor karen, agar market aapki umeedon ke khilaf chale. Technical indicators ya market sentiment analysis ka istemal bhi potential price movements ka behtar samajhne mein madadgar ho sakta hai.

Aakhir mein, broader market conditions aur news events se waqif rehna jo currency fluctuations ko asar daal sakta hai, aapke trading decisions ko behtar banayega. Technical analysis ko market awareness ke sath mila kar, aap trading ke challenges ko behtar tareeqe se navigate kar sakte hain, chahe market aapke haq mein ho ya aapke khilaf.

Aam taur par, aapka key levels par entry aur exit par focus karna market dynamics ki achi samajh ko zahir karta hai. Bullish aur bearish dono scenarios ke liye tayaar reh kar, aap behtar taur par react karne ke liye tayaar honge jab halat badalte hain. Aap in levels ke aas paas apne trades ko manage karne ke liye kaun se khaas strategies istemal karne ka plan bana rahe hain?

EUR/USD currency pair ke mojooda price behavior ka gehra tajziya kar rahe hain. Euro/Dollar pair dheere dheere gir raha hai aur ab 1.10 ke qareeb pohanch raha hai; is ke ilawa, aaj ke United States ke statistics ke baad lamba girawat ka bhi mumkin hai, jisme manufacturing sector mein PMI ki significant kami dekhi gayi. Yeh dekhne ko mil raha hai ke government statistics jo US economy ke growth rate ko show karte hain aur manufacturing sector ki halat mein ek imbalance hai, jo Federal Reserve ki refinancing rate ko 25 basis points se zyada kam karne ki khwahish ko kam kar sakta hai . Yeh factor dollar quotes ko positive impact de sakta hai. Bears ab bhi market mein hain aur EUR/USD ko niche trade karte rahenge. Euro/Dollar ab 1.1032 par trade kar raha hai; technical nazariye se, iska probability high hai ke decline aaj Asia mein bhi dekhne ko milegi, jo pichle levels 1.1070 tak wapas aa rahi hai, aur breakdown test kar rahi hai, breakdown ke baad continued growth ke liye. Four-hour chart par halat zyada tabdeel nahi hui; quotes lagatar bearish direction mein chal rahi hain aur aaj ke US statistics is decline ko roknay mein naakam rahe. Mujhe ab bhi lagta hai ke round level 1.1000 tak pohanchna zaroori hai, jo ke Fibonacci grid ke 38.2% level ke barabar hai jo is period ke dauran stretch kiya gaya hai; agar quotes isse neeche break karte hain, to hum lambi movement expect kar sakte hain jo Fibonacci grid ke average border 1.0938 ke area mein work out ho sakti hai. Daily chart upar tha, aur ab main half-hour time frame ko dekhna chahunga. Ek strong downward price channel pehle dheere dheere develop ho raha tha, jis ke dauran EUR/USD pair kafi lamba trade hota raha. Ab hum dekh rahe hain ke bearish price channel break ho gaya tha, EUR/USD pair ne 1.1065 par resistance line ko break kiya, lekin strong US economic data ke release ke baad, EUR/USD pair girawat ko continue kar raha ha

ستمبر 26 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

بدھ کو، ایس. اینڈ. پی. 500 میں 0.19% کمی، تیل کی قیمتوں میں 2.78% کمی، اور 5 سالہ امریکی سرکاری بانڈز کی پیداوار میں 3.47% سے 3.53% تک اضافے کے درمیان یورو 45 پِپس تک گر گیا۔ تاہم، ان آلات میں سے کسی کے لیے کوئی واضح الٹ سگنل نہیں ہیں۔ خطرے کے اہم اشارے — ایس. اینڈ. پی. 500 اسٹاک انڈیکس — میں اب بھی تقریباً 5850 تک اور وقت کے لحاظ سے نومبر تک، امریکی صدارتی انتخابات کے ساتھ موافق ہے۔



یومیہ چارٹ پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن زیرو لائن کے ساتھ ساتھ ایک سائیڈ وے رینج بناتی ہے، جو اوپر کی طرف ممکنہ بریک آؤٹ کے لیے ایک بنیاد بناتی ہے۔ 1.1186 کی سطح سے اوپر بار بار بریک آؤٹ زیادہ کامیاب ہو سکتا ہے، اس کے بعد کا ہدف 1.1276 (جولائی 2023 کی اونچائی) ہے۔ اگر قیمت ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے ساتھ ساتھ 1.1076 سپورٹ لیول سے ٹوٹ جاتی ہے، تو یہ درمیانی مدت میں کمی کی حالت پیدا کر سکتی ہے۔

چار -گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، 1.1076 کی سطح پر حملے کی علامت 1.1116 کے نشان کے ارد گرد ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے ذریعے قیمت توڑنا ہوگی۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر نیچے کے رجحان والے علاقے میں ہے، جو قیمت کو اس سمت میں بڑھنے کا اشارہ دے سکتا ہے۔

تاہم، آسیلیٹر کی مزید کمی کی صلاحیت محدود ہے، کیونکہ یہ فی الحال خود کو اپنے اترتے ہوئے چینل کی نچلی حد سے دور کرنے کی کوشش کر رہا ہے۔ دو تجزیہ شدہ ٹائم فریموں کے درمیان توازن اوپری رجحان کے لیے فائدہ کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

EUR/USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, lekin Greenback ke bearish sentiment Euro ko madad de sakta hai.

EUR/USD ne hal hi mein ek ahem utar chadhav dekha hai, jisme isne apne intraday gains ko gawa diya aur 1.1200 mark ke neeche chala gaya, jab ke pehle 1.1217 ka naya weekly high choo chuka tha Wednesday ki North American session mein. Is reversal ka sabab US Dollar (USD) ki mazboot recovery thi, jo apne mukhalif karansi pairs ke muqable mein barh gaya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki performance ko chhe bari karansi pairs ke muqable mein napta hai, lagbhag 100.60 tak pahunch gaya, jo pehle ke nuqsan se barh kar ek significant rebound hai.






### EUR/USD ke Bunyadi Asrat:

Federal Reserve (Fed) ki September mein mumkin interest rate cut ki uncertainty ko mazeed barhaya hai halia US economic data ne. US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ne August mein 142,000 jobs ka izafa report kiya, jo ke umeed se kam tha (160,000 jobs) magar phir bhi July ke revised figure 89,000 se behtar tha. Is ke ilawa, berozgaari ki shirah kam ho kar 4.2% ho gayi, jo pichle mahine 4.3% thi, aur yeh forecast ke mutabiq hai. In milay julay isharon ne Fed ke monetary policy ke future direction ko le kar ek ehtiyat bharay ruju ko barhaya hai.

Dusri taraf, European Central Bank (ECB) apni monetary policy ko mazeed relax karne ke liye tayar nazar aa raha hai. Eurozone mein inflation 2% target ke qareeb hai aur lambi muddat ke inflation expectations bhi is level par stable hain, jis wajah se ECB ko rate cuts ke liye kaafi justifications mil rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, Eurozone se aayi milay julay GDP data ne mazeed easing ki umeedon ko mazboot kiya hai, jo ke shared currency ke liye ek uncertain environment create kar raha hai.

### Dailly Time Frame Mein Technical Outlook:

1.1100 area se halia recovery, jo do haftay ke low 1.1066 ke qareeb thi, ko resistance ka samna ho raha hai 50% Fibonacci retracement level ke qareeb, jo ke recent downward correction ka hissa tha jo August ke YTD peak se shuru hui thi. Magar raat ko 1.1188 ke confluence resistance ko breakout karne ke baad, jo ke 38.2% Fibonacci level aur 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) ko shamil karta hai daily chart par, yeh bullish traders ke liye ek acha signal tha, jo mazeed gains ke liye rasta khol raha hai.EUR/USD ne hal hi mein ek ahem utar chadhav dekha hai, jisme isne apne intraday gains ko gawa diya aur 1.1200 mark ke neeche chala gaya, jab ke pehle 1.1217 ka naya weekly high choo chuka tha Wednesday ki North American session mein. Is reversal ka sabab US Dollar (USD) ki mazboot recovery thi, jo apne mukhalif karansi pairs ke muqable mein barh gaya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki performance ko chhe bari karansi pairs ke muqable mein napta hai, lagbhag 100.60 tak pahunch gaya, jo pehle ke nuqsan se barh kar ek significant rebound hai.

### EUR/USD ke Bunyadi Asrat:

Federal Reserve (Fed) ki September mein mumkin interest rate cut ki uncertainty ko mazeed barhaya hai halia US economic data ne. US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ne August mein 142,000 jobs ka izafa report kiya, jo ke umeed se kam tha (160,000 jobs) magar phir bhi July ke revised figure 89,000 se behtar tha. Is ke ilawa, berozgaari ki shirah kam ho kar 4.2% ho gayi, jo pichle mahine 4.3% thi, aur yeh forecast ke mutabiq hai. In milay julay isharon ne Fed ke monetary policy ke future direction ko le kar ek ehtiyat bharay ruju ko barhaya hai.

Dusri taraf, European Central Bank (ECB) apni monetary policy ko mazeed relax karne ke liye tayar nazar aa raha hai. Eurozone mein inflation 2% target ke qareeb hai aur lambi muddat ke inflation expectations bhi is level par stable hain, jis wajah se ECB ko rate cuts ke liye kaafi justifications mil rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, Eurozone se aayi milay julay GDP data ne mazeed easing ki umeedon ko mazboot kiya hai, jo ke shared currency ke liye ek uncertain environment create kar raha hai.

### Dailly Time Frame Mein Technical Outlook:

1.1100 area se halia recovery, jo do haftay ke low 1.1066 ke qareeb thi, ko resistance ka samna ho raha hai 50% Fibonacci retracement level ke qareeb, jo ke recent downward correction ka hissa tha jo August ke YTD peak se shuru hui thi. Magar raat ko 1.1188 ke confluence resistance ko breakout karne ke baad, jo ke 38.2% Fibonacci level aur 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) ko shamil karta hai daily chart par, yeh bullish traders ke liye ek acha signal tha, jo mazeed gains ke liye rasta khol raha hai.

Euro, jo ke abhi major currencies ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, ne Wednesday ki New York trading session ke dauran apne recent highs 1.1055 se significant decline dekha. Market sentiment abhi zyada ter ECB ke September mein ek aur interest rate cut ki umeed ke asar mein hai. Is move ke anticipation ne intensity gain ki hai jab inflation rates gir rahe hain, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh rate-cutting cycle September ke baad bhi barh sakta hai. Abhi spot price 1.1016 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.
ECB ke potential interest rate decisions ka andaza lagane ke liye investors German aur Eurozone HICP data ka closely jaiza lenge jo Thursday aur Friday ko release honge. Analysts expect karte hain ke Eurozone ka annual headline HICP, jo ke overall inflation ko measure karta hai, 2.3% tak decelerate karega, jab ke core HICP, jo ke volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.8% tak moderate hoga.

**EUR/USD ke fundamentals:**ECB ke aur zyada interest rate cuts ki umeed badh gayi hai Eurozone ke economic outlook aur wage growth slowdown ke hawale se barhati hui uncertainties ki wajah se. Hiraan kun baat yeh hai ke Eurozone ki economic activity August mein unexpected upar gayi, flash HCOB PMI report ke mutabiq. Magar yeh uptick ziada ter France mein Olympic Games ki wajah se aayi demand ki wajah se hua. Economists isay temporary boost samajhte hain, naa ke kisi fundamental economic change ko.

ECB ke Chief Economist Philip Lane ne JH Symposium ke dauran Saturday ko yeh kaha ke restrictive monetary policy ki zarurat hai. Lane ne inflation ke khilaf ladai mein ki gayi taraqqi ko acknowledge kiya, magar yeh bhi kaha ke lambi muddat tak success ka koi yaqeen nahi hai. Unki baat ne ECB ke inflationary pressures ko manage karne aur market expectations ko guide karne ke challenges ko ujagar kiya.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Wednesday ko pair 1.1010 level ke neeche slip kar gaya jab buyers ko upward momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil hui. Pair abhi 50-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.0962 par hai, magar agar decline jari rehta hai to price 20-day EMA ke paas wapas aa sakti hai, jo ke 1.1050 ke qareeb hai. EUR/USD buyers ke liye resistance 14-day SMA par 1.1026 ke aas-paas dekhi ja sakti hai.

Pair ko 1.1000 ke crucial psychological level ke breach hone ka khatra hai. Technical indicators jaise ke MACD aur RSI bearish outlook ki taraf ishara karte hain. Agar downward momentum barqarar rehti hai, to traders ko apni positions ka jaiza lena hoga aur potential reversals ke liye

Euro, jo ke abhi major currencies ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, ne Wednesday ki New York trading session ke dauran apne recent highs 1.1055 se significant decline dekha. Market sentiment abhi zyada ter ECB ke September mein ek aur interest rate cut ki umeed ke asar mein hai. Is move ke anticipation ne intensity gain ki hai jab inflation rates gir rahe hain, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh rate-cutting cycle September ke baad bhi barh sakta hai. Abhi spot price 1.1016 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.
ECB ke potential interest rate decisions ka andaza lagane ke liye investors German aur Eurozone HICP data ka closely jaiza lenge jo Thursday aur Friday ko release honge. Analysts expect karte hain ke Eurozone ka annual headline HICP, jo ke overall inflation ko measure karta hai, 2.3% tak decelerate karega, jab ke core HICP, jo ke volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.8% tak moderate hoga.

**EUR/USD ke fundamentals:**ECB ke aur zyada interest rate cuts ki umeed badh gayi hai Eurozone ke economic outlook aur wage growth slowdown ke hawale se barhati hui uncertainties ki wajah se. Hiraan kun baat yeh hai ke Eurozone ki economic activity August mein unexpected upar gayi, flash HCOB PMI report ke mutabiq. Magar yeh uptick ziada ter France mein Olympic Games ki wajah se aayi demand ki wajah se hua. Economists isay temporary boost samajhte hain, naa ke kisi fundamental economic change ko.

ECB ke Chief Economist Philip Lane ne JH Symposium ke dauran Saturday ko yeh kaha ke restrictive monetary policy ki zarurat hai. Lane ne inflation ke khilaf ladai mein ki gayi taraqqi ko acknowledge kiya, magar yeh bhi kaha ke lambi muddat tak success ka koi yaqeen nahi hai. Unki baat ne ECB ke inflationary pressures ko manage karne aur market expectations ko guide karne ke challenges ko ujagar kiya.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Wednesday ko pair 1.1010 level ke neeche slip kar gaya jab buyers ko upward momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil hui. Pair abhi 50-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.0962 par hai, magar agar decline jari rehta hai to price 20-day EMA ke paas wapas aa sakti hai, jo ke 1.1050 ke qareeb hai. EUR/USD buyers ke liye resistance 14-day SMA par 1.1026 ke aas-paas dekhi ja sakti hai.

Pair ko 1.1000 ke crucial psychological level ke breach hone ka khatra hai. Technical indicators jaise ke MACD aur RSI bearish outlook ki taraf ishara karte hain. Agar downward momentum barqarar rehti hai, to traders ko apni positions ka jaiza lena hoga aur potential reversals ke liye hoshiyaar rehna hoga

Chaliye D1 period ka chart dekhte hain, jo EURUSD currency pair ka hai. Wave structure ab tak ek ascending order mein bana hua hai, aur MACD indicator upar ki taraf purchasing zone mein hai. Guzishta trading hafta mukhtalif direction mein raha, lekin aakhir mein buyers ne upper hand hasil kar liya. Ek koshish hui ke price neeche jaye aur horizontal support level 1.1108 ke neeche consolidate ho, jo ke closing prices par bana hai, magar price wahan par tik nahi sakka aur sirf ek spike chhoda, jahan se usi din price wapas upar aa gaya.

Is hafta bhi kuch waisa hi dekhne ko mila. Price 1.1108 ke level tak neeche gaya, lekin phir wahan se dobara upar aaya. Yeh lagta hai ke price ab August ke maximum ko update karne ki koshish kar raha hai, aur iske chances bhi hain kyun ke price ab maximum ke kareeb hai aur general trend bhi ascending hi hai. Agar price is maximum se aage nikalti hai, to mumkin hai ke bohot door na jaye kyun ke is soorat mein MACD indicator par ek bearish divergence banega, aur doosra indicator CCI par bhi. CCI pehle hi upper overheating zone ke kareeb hai.

Ab sawal yeh hai ke kya price is maximum se aage jaayegi ya nahi. Haalaat ko dekhte hue mera andaza hai ke qareebi future mein price wapas press hoke us ascending line tak aa sakti hai jo ke purani daily waves ke bottoms par bani hui hai. Agar yeh line support nahi de sakti, to phir price ka 1.1010 ke main horizontal support level tak wapas jaana mumkin hai. Yehi wo level hai jahan se price kuch din pehle touch kar ke upar chali gayi thi, aur yeh September ka minimum bhi hai.






Ek door ka target 1.0955 ka level hai, jo ke sirf daily nahi balki weekly level bhi hai, aur mujhe qareebi future mein price is level ke neeche jati nahi dikh rahi. Haan, pehle shayad price ko last month ke maximum se aage le jaya jaaye, magar agar aisa hota hai, to mere khayal mein yeh bas ek moka hoga ke higher prices par sell kiya ja sake.

Monday ko EUR/USD ka movement kaafi violent tha, jismein yeh currency pair takreeban 75 pip move hua. Yeh movement is liye dekha gaya kyun ke high-impact news release hui thi, jiss ki wajah se Euro ki value US dollar ke muqablay mein gir gayi. Pehle Euro ka movement sideways tha, lekin candle 1.1180 ke qareebi barrier ko torhne mein naakaam rahi aur wapis 1.1088 ke price par aa gayi. Jab hum analysis kar rahe thay, EUR/USD mein thori si recovery dekhi gayi, lekin mujhe lagta hai yeh ek temporary phenomenon tha. Agar H1 timeframe ka analysis kiya jaye, tou ab bhi yeh mumkin hai ke EUR/USD mazeed neeche jaaye jab tak ke supply area 1.1187 ko upar se break nahi kiya jata. Mere khayal mein agar koi rise hoti hai tou woh sirf ek correction ho sakti hai. Resistance ka sabse mota layer abhi torhna mushkil lagta hai. Candle ko mazeed girne ke liye H1 support 1.1088 ke price ko break karna hoga. Abhi ke liye, candle SBR region 1.1132 ko cross karne mein naakaam rahi hai, aur EUR/USD ke decline ki tayari lag rahi hai. Shayad retracement ya price bounce ho sakta hai is se pehle ke EUR/USD phir se giray. Ichimoku indicator ki

Yuro ne Thursday ki subah trading mein halka sa recovery dekha, lekin ab bhi yeh sawal hai ke kya yeh ahm 1.12 ke level ko paar kar sakega. Market ab is resistance ka saamna kar rahi hai, aur aage ke growth ka potential le kar kuch uncertainty hai. Agar euro upar ki taraf break karne mein kamiyab hota hai, to yeh 1.1250 level ko target kar sakta hai, jo ke ek longer-term buy-and-hold scenario ka raasta tayar kar sakta hai.

Tareekh mein, jab bhi market kisi bada round number ya psychologically important level tak pahunchti hai, to aksar is par mazboot react hota hai. Euro aise hi key numbers ke darmiyan move kar raha hai aur iski bullish bias dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Halankeh kisi eventual breakout ka hona mumkin lagta hai, lekin aaj ki market conditions ko dekhte hue yeh foran nahi hoga.

Bade nazariye se dekha jaye to hum is currency pair ke liye ek ahm resistance zone ke kareeb hain. Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke dono European Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve ne haal hi mein interest rates cut kiye hain, jisme Fed ka 50 basis points ka cut zyada dramatic hai. Aisi halat mein panic ka signal mil sakta hai, jo ke agar global concerns barh jaate hain to euro par negative asar daal sakta hai. Iske bawajood, overall sentiment ab bhi dips par buying ko tarjeeh de raha hai, khaaskar major levels par, agar global risk appetite barqarar rahe.

Mukhtasir yeh kehna hai ke jab tak euro 1.12 ke level ke aas paas resistance ka saamna kar raha hai, iska upward trajectory ab bhi barkarar hai aur market eventually upar ki taraf jaane ki koshish kar sakti hai. Traders ko pullbacks ke doran buying opportunities par nazar rakhni chahiye aur global market sentiment par nazar rakhna chahiye, jo euro ke agle move ko tay karne mein ek key role play kar sakta hai.

Aakhir mein, euro ke liye aaj ka din ahmiyat rakhta hai, aur traders ko yeh dekhna hoga ke kya yeh level ko paar karne mein kamiyab hota hai ya nahi. Agar yeh successful hota hai, to market mein bullish trend ki umeed barh sakti hai, lekin agar yeh rukawat ka saamna karta hai, to phir downside pressure bhi dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Global economic indicators aur central bank ki policies ka bhi ghor se jaiza lena hoga taake behtar trading decisions liye ja sakein.

mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support

Spot price ka trading session khatam hone par 24 ghante pehle ke muqable mein lagbhag behtar tha. Agle haftay mein, bazaar ka tawajjo ahm waqiat par hai, khaaskar US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release par. Filhal, EUR/USD halka sa neeche trade ho raha hai, jo ke bazaar ki ghalatfehmi ko darshata hai.

EUR/USD ke buniyadi pehlu:

Bazaar ke hissedaron ki nazar rozgar ke iqtisaad par hai, khaaskar is liye ke Federal Reserve ko poora yaqeen hai ke inflation dabao 2% ke nishaan par waapas aa raha hai. Haal ki reports darust karti hain ke US ki iqtisaadi growth mein kami aayi hai jo ke slow job demand ki wajah se hai. Lekin, rozgar ki kami itni zyada nahi thi jaisi umeed thi, jis ne recession ke khauf ko kuch kam kar diya aur Fed ki taraf se aggressive rate cuts ki umeed ko bhi mitha diya.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, September mein 50-basis point (bps) ki interest rate reduction ki sambhavanayein 27% hain. Lekin, zyadatar bazaar ke hissedaar 25-bps ki cut ko zyada pasand karte hain. Jaisay jaisay hum US CPI data ki release ki taraf badh rahe hain, US Dollar mein zyada volatility ki sambhavana hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Technical manzar-e-qabul yeh darshata hai ke 1.1214 ka confluence resistance ab foran support ki tarah kaam kar raha hai, jabke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level lagbhag 1.1111 par hai. Agar is level ke neeche koi decisive break hota hai, toh aur neeche ke potential ko khula ja sakta hai, jiska target weekly low 1.1025 aur psychological 1.1100 mark ho sakta hai. Agar yeh critical threshold break hoti hai, toh bearish traders ko faida ho sakta hai. Lekin agar is point ke upar break hota hai, toh bazaar ka jazba badal sakta hai aur EUR/USD pair ke liye bullish momentum phir se shuru ho sakta hai.

Wednesday ko kamzor close ne daily chart ko negative territory ki taraf kar diya hai, jo ek bearish outside range session ke zariye darshaya gaya. Iske bawajood, daily aur weekly charts par bullish signals ab bhi maujood hain, jo ye darshate hain ke EUR ke liye nuksan qareeb ke doran mehfooz ho sakta hai. Agar pichle haftay ka low 1.1125 todta hai, toh yeh mid se upper 1.1000 range ki taraf aur kami ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Resistance level 1.1231 par hai, jo ek ahem rukawat hai jise traders dhyan se dekhenge.

Yuro ne Thursday ki subah trading mein thodi recovery dekhi, lekin abhi bhi yeh ek ahem sawal hai ke kya yeh 1.12 ka significant level tod sakta hai. Market ab is resistance ka samna kar rahi hai aur aage barhne ke potential ke bare mein uncertainty hai. Agar yuro isse upar nikalta hai, toh yeh 1.1250 ka target le sakta hai, jo ke long-term buy-and-hold scenario ka raasta khol sakta hai.

Tareekh ki roshni mein, jab bhi market kisi bara round number ya psychologically important level par pohanchti hai, wahan aksar ek strong reaction dekha jata hai. Yuro in key numbers ke darmiyan chal raha hai aur aam tor par bullish bias ke saath fluctuate kar raha hai. Halankeh aisa lagta hai ke ek breakout aakhirkar aayega, lekin is waqt ke market conditions ko dekhte hue yeh foran nahi hoga.

Bade manzar-e-qabul ko dekhte hue, hum is currency pair ke liye ek significant resistance zone ke qareeb hain. Yeh zaroori hai ke yeh bhi note kiya jaye ke European Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve ne haal hi mein interest rates kaat diye hain, jis mein Fed ne 50 basis points ka zyada dramatic cut kiya. Aisa karna panic ka ishara de sakta hai, jo yuro par negative asar daal sakta hai agar global concerns barh jaate hain. Iske bawajood, overall sentiment ab bhi buying on dips ko support karta hai, khaas taur par major levels par, agar global risk appetite barqarar rahe.

Khulasah yeh hai ke jab tak yuro 1.12 level ke qareeb resistance ka samna kar raha hai, iska upward trajectory ab bhi intact hai aur market shayad aakhirkar upar jaane ki koshish kare. Traders ko pullback ke doran buying opportunities dekhni chahiye aur global market sentiment par nazar rakhni chahiye, jo ke yuro ke next move ko tay karne mein ek ahem kirdar ada kar sakta hai.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

EUR/USD ne 1.1120 ke aas paas correction karne ke baad upar ki taraf movement shuru ki hai, jabke US Dollar apni recovery ko aage barhane mein mushkil mehsoos kar raha hai. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ka speech November mein hone wali interest rate cut ki size ke bare mein raushan dalne ki umeed hai. ECB ne bhi October mein doosri consecutive interest rate cut dene ka irada rakha hai.

EUR/USD ne Thursday ki European session mein thodi upar ki taraf movement ki hai, jabke yeh pehle 1.1120 ke aas paas correction kiya tha. Yeh currency pair US Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ke speech se pehle upar aaya hai. Wednesday ko, is shared currency pair ne 1.1200 ke resistance level ke upar test karne ke baad selling pressure ka saamna kiya tha, jab US Dollar ne thodi recovery ki thi. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko chhe major currencies ke against track karta hai, Wednesday ke high ke aas paas 101.00 par hai.

Powell ke ilawa, saath dusre policymakers bhi New York session ke dauran speak karne wale hain: Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed Bank President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, aur Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari.

Fed policymakers se yeh umeed hai ke woh aane wale mahino mein interest rate action ke bare mein raushan dalenge. Filhal, markets yeh expect karte hain ke Fed baqi do meetings mein 75 basis points (bps) tak interest rates ko reduce karega, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq. Is tool se yeh bhi pata chalta hai ke Fed ke November mein doosri consecutive 50 bps ki interest rate cut announce karne ki probability 39% se badh kar 61% ho gayi hai.

Dusri taraf, Fed policymakers ke latest comments ne yeh darshaya hai ke unhein labor market ki halat ke khilaf chinta hai. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke 12 members mein se sirf Fed Governor Michelle Bowman ne September mein 25 bps ki rate cut se rate-cut cycle shuru karne ka support diya.

Ab inflation ke halat ke bare mein jaanne ke liye, investors aaj Friday ko US ke core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data par nazar rakhenge, jo August ka hoga. Andazah hai ke yeh inflation data July ke 2.6% ke muqablay mein 2.7% tak barh sakta hai.

EUR/USD ne Thursday ki European trading session mein 1.1120 se thodi recovery ki hai. Yeh major currency pair Wednesday ko 1.1200 ke key resistance se neeche aaya tha. Shared currency pair ka near-term outlook mazboot hai kyunki yeh 1.1000 ke psychological support ke paas daily time frame par Rising Channel chart pattern ka breakout hold kar raha hai.

Upar ki taraf, 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 1.1100 ke aas paas hai, near-term trend ko bullish darshata hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 ke neeche consolidate kar raha hai, jo momentum ke kamzor hone ka signal hai.

Agar 1.1200 ke round-level resistance ke upar ek decisive break hota hai, toh yeh further appreciation ko July 2023 ke high 1.1276 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf, 1.1000 ka psychological level aur 17 July ka high 1.0950 ke aas paas major support zones hain.

Technical analysis of the EURUSD pair

4-ghante ke chart par, yeh currency pair ek achi kharidari ke zone mein trade kar raha hai kyun ke iski qeemat ab channel lines aur weekly pivot level 1.1139 ke sahare hai. Is hafte, qeemat ne upar ki taraf chadhne wale price channels ke andar trading shuru ki, jo pichle do hafton ke doran movement trend ko darshata hai. Hafte ke shuruat mein qeemat ne neeche ki taraf girawat dekhi aur channels ko do baar tod diya, lekin jab qeemat weekly support level 1.1091 par pahuncha, toh upar ki taraf rebound shuru ho gaya.

Upar ki taraf chadhai continued hui weekly resistance level 1.1211 tak, lekin iske baad qeemat neeche girne lagi aur doobara price channels ko tod diya. Lekin qeemat phir se upar aayi aur ab channels ke andar aur weekly pivot level ke upar mazboot hai. Is liye, aane wale ghanton mein qeemat ke upar uthane ki ummeed hai aur yeh pair kharidne ke liye munasib samjha ja raha hai.

Maashi pehlu se, euro ki gains forex market mein China se positive khabron aur US Federal Reserve ke officials ke isharo ki wajah se hui, jo investors ko motivate karte hain. China ne apni dheemi hoti hui economy ko behter banane ke liye measures ka elan kiya, jis se investor confidence mein izafa hua.

Lekin, European Central Bank se rate cut ki umeed badh gayi hai, jab ke kuch maashi data ne behtareen nahi raha. Ifo business climate index for Germany September mein 85.4 par gira, jo August ke 86.6 se kam hai aur 86.0 ki umeed se bhi neeche hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke business confidence chaar mawasim se gir raha hai. Iske ilawa, eurozone, Germany, aur France ke latest purchasing managers’ index data bhi disappointing the aur yeh darshate hain ke eurozone mein private sector ki activity doobara contraction ki taraf ja rahi hai, kyunki Olympic Games ke khatam hone se French service sector par asar hua aur German car manufacturers jese Volkswagen ke masail ne manufacturing sector ko mazeed neeche gira diya.