EUR/USD ka tajziya
Pichle haftay mein US dollar mein izafa EUR/USD ko November se lowest level par le gaya. Dollar ke hilaf main, haalaanki ye sirf ek wajah hai, haal hi mein mehsoos shuda inflation United States mein izafa hai. Lagbhag ek saal se ab tak, markets ko yeh guftagu rahe hai ke central banks apni monetary policy ko kis waqt asaani se karenge. Magar, inflation ka tasalsul na hone ki wajah se afraad ko normalcy ko bahal karne mein kam dilchaspi rahi hai. Iske ilawa, buland darje ke markazi shara'at taraqqi par asar andaz hoti hain, haalaanki mukhtalif hadood tak.
Ek survey ke mutabiq jo ke U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ne Budh ko jaari kiya, to consumer price index ne March mein saalana 3.5% aur maheenawar 0.4% izafa kiya, jo ke muntazim tha. Saalana core inflation dar 3.8%, jo ke khurak aur energy ke prices mein tabdeeliyon ko dhaancho mein nahi leta, yeh bhi muntazim se zyada tha. In nataij ne Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke haal ki ta'arufat ko tasleem kiya, jo ke ihtimalat ko khatray se bachaane ki taraf mehwar ho gaya hai. Powell ne kaha ke Federal Reserve ko faiz darat qatayi mein kisi jaldi nahi hai.
1.0642 ke band hone ke saath, EUR/USD ne agle kuch dino mein mazeed zawaal ki taraf rawana hui. Lambi muddat ke technical nishanat aik technical lehaz se niche ki taraf rukh kar rahi hain. Haftawarana chart par technical nishanat mazboot tor par dakshin ki taraf point kar rahi hain, jahan EUR/USD apni flat 100 simple moving average (SMA) ke neeche tootne ki taraf ja raha hai. 20 simple moving averages lambi muddat ke moving averages ke darmiyan niche rawanae ka muzahira kar rahe hain, jo chhoti market ke jazbat mein izafa ko darust karte hain, jab ke 200 simple moving averages 1.1140 area ke aas paas ke rehne ka kisi aik rukh ko dikhate hain.
The downtrend on the daily chart is indeed evident for EUR/USD. The pair's position below all moving averages, coupled with the 20 simple moving average gaining bearish momentum after crossing above the larger moving average, underscores the prevailing bearish sentiment. Moreover, with technical indicators now residing in negative territory, the bearish pressure remains intact.
The initial support level for EUR/USD is at 1.0600, followed by the price area ranging between 1.0510 and 1.0520. If EUR/USD breaches this level, further downside movement could lead it to test support around 1.0440 in the upcoming days.
On the upside, resistance is encountered at the previous year's low of 1.0694, followed by the 1.0770 price area. Although a breakout above this level appears improbable, even if achieved, it would not suffice to alter the prevailing bearish sentiment. For a bullish reversal, EUR/USD would need to consolidate above the 1.0940 level. However, such a move seems unlikely, and even if realized, it would not be sufficient to shift the overall trend to bullish.
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