𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃

GBP/USD ne haal hi mein ek slight bullish trend dikhaya hai jab yeh 1.2611 ka six-week low hit karne ke baad recover hua. Abhi ke analysis ke mutabiq, yeh pair 1.2636 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jo ek modest recovery ko reflect karta hai. Yeh movement un traders aur investors ke liye noteworthy hai jo is major forex pair ke dynamics ko samajhna chahte hain.

### GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

Pair ne zyadatar currencies ke muqable mein robust performance dikhayi hai, Euro ke ilawa. Yeh strength uske bawajood barqarar hai ke market speculation barh rahi hai ke **Bank of England (BoE)** aane wali August ya September meetings mein interest rates ko reduce karne ka soch raha hai. Yeh speculation UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke recent report ke baad barh gayi, jisne yeh show kiya ke April mein economic recovery waqai ruk gayi thi, jaisa ke pehle se anticipate kiya ja raha tha.

### Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

GBP/USD ko significant resistance ka samna hai jab yeh 1.2700 mark ke qareeb aati hai, aur mazeed hurdles 1.2860 region ke qareeb expected hain. Agar yeh pair apni strength is point ke upar barqarar rakhti hai, to yeh dobara year-to-date peak jo 1.2900 level ke aas-paas hai, ko retest kar sakta hai, jo ke March mein touch kiya gaya tha. Agar yeh peak successful tor par breach ho jata hai, to pair 1.2951 resistance tak pohanch sakta hai aur phir psychological 1.3000 mark ko reclaim kar sakta hai, jo ke July 2023 ke baad se dekha nahi gaya.

**Technical indicators** daily chart par ek positive outlook ko suggest karte hain. **Relative Strength Index (RSI)** 60 ki taraf move kar raha hai, jo bullish sentiment ko dikhata hai. Iske ilawa, **Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)** ke red bars kam ho rahe hain, jo selling pressure ke kam hone ko indicate karte hain. Yeh indicators collectively yeh support karte hain ke pair abhi bhi ek positive terrain mein hai.

**GBP/USD: H1 Chart Analysis in Roman Urdu**

GBP/USD ki price ne aaj trading ka aghaz 1.26350 ke open level se kiya aur neeche H1 support level 1.26268 tak chali gayi, jise break karke price M30 support level 1.26222 tak pohanch gayi. Uske baad price ne wahan se upar ka rukh ikhtiyar kiya aur ab daily pivot ki taraf badhne ke chances hain. Agar price H1 resistance level 1.2637 ko upar ki taraf break kar leti hai, to price daily pivot level 1.26387 tak pohanch sakti hai. Agar yeh pivot level se bounce nahi karti aur upar chalti rehti hai, to agla potential target H4 resistance level 1.26540 ho sakta hai.

Wahan se price dubara neeche ki taraf move karne ka imkaan hai. Agar price kal ke minimum level 1.26116 ko break karti hai, jo ke D1 support level 1.26175 ya H4 support level 1.26133 ke qareeb hai, to price neeche support level 1.25810 tak pohanch sakti hai. In support levels ke neeche koi significant support ya resistance levels nahi hain jab tak ke S4 level 1.25453 na ho. Is liye, agar price in support levels ko break karti hai jo ke kal handle nahi kar payi thi, to yeh reasonable ho sakta hai ke price 1.25453 level ya is se neeche tak decline kare.

Lekin agar price daily pivot ko break karti hai, to yeh H4 resistance level 1.26540 ko bhi break kar sakti hai aur northwards movement mein kal ka maximum level 1.26693 tak pohanch sakti hai. Is surat mein, movement ka target D1 resistance level 1.26815 ya R3 resistance level 1.26964 ho sakta hai, jo ke 1.27000 ke qareeb hai.

**ZUP indicator** ke mutabiq, price ka movement bullish pattern **Bullish .786*AB=CD** ke completion par mabni ho sakta hai. Agar price neeche ke movement mein 1.26169 ke value se neeche nahi girti, to bullish pattern price action ke liye relevant ho sakta hai. Khaaskar yeh dekhte hue ke **slow stochastic (50.10.25)** ke signal line values 33.6 aur 29.8 overbought zone ki taraf move karna shuru ho gayi hain. **Fast stochastic (5.3.3)** ke values 28.7 aur 27.6 crossroads par hain - ya to oversold zone mein jayen ya phir overbought zone ki taraf upar move karein. Shayad price Fibonacci levels ke mutabiq 61.8 level 1.26515 tak pohanche, jo ke H4 resistance level 1.2654 ke qareeb hai, aur wahan se bounce ho kar neeche ke downside targets ki taraf chaley.

Kal raat ki trading session mein buyers kamyab nahi ho sake ke price ko upar le kar ja sakein, is liye sellers ne mauqa ganwaya nahi aur price ko neeche dhakel diya. Chart analysis ke mutabiq, GBP/USD currency pair June ke shuruaati trading session se phir se neeche ki taraf chal raha hai. Aaj subah thodi si upward correction dekhi gayi, lekin weekly basis par sellers ka zor barqarar hai jo candlestick ko neeche le jane ki koshish kar rahe hain aur is waqt 1.2686 ka level chhuka hai.

Candlestick ka position Simple Moving Average 150 ke neeche hi comfortably khel raha hai, jo is baat ka pata deta hai ke market abhi bhi bearish hai. Pehle jo upward trend tha, ab wapas neeche ki taraf mud gaya hai. Aaj raat ko jab American session shuru hoga, market phir se neeche ki taraf chalne ka imkaan hai aur lower level tak pohanch sakta hai.

Meri raaye mein agar hum current trend ko dekhein, to market abhi bhi bearish condition mein hai. GBP/USD currency pair ka neeche ki taraf chalne ka imkaan zyada hai, jis tarah sellers ka zor is haftay barqarar hai. Agar price 1.2630 ke neeche break karta hai, to market kal tak phir se bearish ho sakta hai. Ab tak market mein price movement sellers ke dabao mein hai, jiski wajah se price apne highest level se neeche aa gaya hai. Agle dinon mein market ka imkaan hai ke 1.2600 tak neeche gira hai. Agar aap trading karte waqt safe rehna chahte hain aur profit ke mauqay talash karna chahte hain, to market trend ko follow karna zaroori hai.

### Trading Tips - Wednesday:

Hourly chart par GBP/USD pair ka downtrend banne ka imkaan abhi bhi zinda hai, halan ke uptrend poori tarah khatam nahi hua. Bearish prospects ke liye yeh achi baat hai ke price ne 1.2693 ka level do martaba overcome kar liya hai; lekin market aksar bechnay se inkaar karta hai, chahe technical, fundamental ya macroeconomic factors us direction ko support kyun na karte hoon.

Wednesday ke din British pound irregular aur ghair-mutabiq movements dikhata reh sakta hai. For example, yeh 1.2633 level tak wapas aa sakta hai. GBP/USD ka imkaan hai ke low volatility ka samna kare.

### Key Levels (5-Minute Chart):

1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2541-1.2547, 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, aur 1.2980.

Aaj ke din UK ya US mein koi ahem events schedule nahi hain, is liye traders ka imkaan hai ke ek aur bore din ka samna karein.

Hum GBP/USD currency pair ke price fluctuations ka tajziya karenge. Is analysis mein, main UK ke inflation prospects ko Eurozone data ke zariye nahi dekhoonga, balke mukhtalif regions ko bhi madde nazar rakhoonga, jaise Bearish aur Eastern Europe, jo UK ke major trading partners nahi hain. Mehngi pound kisi bhi economy ke liye nuksan deh ho sakti hai, magar ab tak iska asar itna tez nahi hua ke global economic risks ko barha sake. Iske muqable mein, US dollar ne 2020 ke baad se kafi mehngi ho gayi hai, jo ki global economy ke liye ek aham factor hai.

1.3043 ka support level, jo ek recent peak ke taur par samjha jata hai, khaas taur par dekhne ke laayak hai. Yeh level substantial support provide kar sakta hai, aur jab tak GBP/USD pair is level ke upar trade kar raha hai, to main zyada tawajju potential rise par dunga na ke bade decline par. Halankeh is hafte mein thori si kami dekhi gayi hai, daily chart ke mutabiq uptrend ab bhi intact hai aur sirf ek minor correction nazar aati hai.

Friday ko GBP/USD pair ne downward correction phase mein band kiya, jo agle hafte bhi jaari reh sakta hai. Is decline ka foran target 1.3089 ka support level hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to prices aur neeche 1.3009 tak ja sakti hain. Pichle hafte ke aakhir mein, GBP/USD ke bears ne thodi hesitation dikhayi—shayad yeh bulls ke tactical pause ka nasha tha. Agar 4-hour candle 1.3107 ke neeche close hoti hai, to main bechne ka sochunga.

Agar current range ke andar koi reversal pattern banta hai bina kisi bearish gap ke, to main kharidne ka raasta ikhtiyar karunga. Is surat mein, stop loss ko pattern ke minimum ke neeche rakhoonga, jo shayad 1.3108 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai. Sustained downtrend ke liye, 4-hour period ko 1.3107 ke paas rehna chahiye. Apni final strategy ko finalize karne se pehle, Monday ke nazdeek candle ko gaur se dekhna hoga. Yeh analysis mujhe is pair ke future movement aur trading opportunities ko behtar samajhne mein madad karega

European session ke dauran Wednesday ko, GBP/USD pair 1.2650 level ki taraf gir raha hai. Federal Reserve aur Bank of England ki mukhtalif policies aur UK elections ke hawalay se paish aane wali tension ke bawajood risk appetite kafi zyada nahi hai, jisse pair kamzor lag raha hai. Tawajjo US ke mid-range data par hai kyun ke UK calendar mein filhaal koi khaas data nahi hai. 4-hour chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 se thoda neeche hai, jo buyers ki kami ka ishara deta hai.

Neeche ki taraf, 100-day aur 50-day simple moving averages 1.2640 par mazboot support bana rahe hain. Yeh level Fibonacci 38.2% retracement ke saath bhi supported hai jo latest uptrend ke mutabiq hai. Agar GBP/USD is level ke neeche break karta hai aur isko resistance ke tor par use karta hai, to agla bearish target 1.2600 (jo ek psychological aur static level hai) aur 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) ho sakte hain. Fori resistance 1.2700 (4-hour chart par 200-period SMA) par hai, iske baad 1.2730 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) aur 1.2800 (psychological aur static level) hain. Tuesday ko pair surface clear karne mein nakam raha aur Wednesday ko halki bearish pressure mein hai. Agar 1.2640 ka support toot gaya, to ek extended slide dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

Data ki kami ke bawajood, ehtiyaat pasand market ne US dollar ko apne mukabil mazboot rakha hai. Iske ilawa, Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ne bhi USD ko support kiya hai. Fed Governor Michelle Bauman ne Tuesday ko kaha ke wo abhi is nuqte par nahi hain ke interest rates kam karna munasib ho, aur agar inflation mein rukawat ya ulat dekhne ko milti hai to rate hikes ke liye tayar hain. US stock index futures marginally higher trading kar rahe hain. Agar Wall Street bullish khulta hai, to USD ke gains limited ho sakte hain aur GBP/USD ko thoda sahara mil sakta hai. Magar pair ko bullish momentum ikattha karne mein mushkil ka samna hoga jab tak aglay haftay UK elections ka intizaar hai aur investors bade positions lene se pehle soch raha hain. US economic data mein sirf May ke new home sales shamil hain. April mein 4.7% ki girawat ke baad, is data mein doosri significant girawat Fed ki tightening policy ka asar housing market par zahir kar sakti hai aur USD ko nuqsan pohcha sakti hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq pehla support 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas paas 1.2600 par hai, aur agla support ascending channel ke lower boundary ke kareeb 1.2500 par hai. Agar yeh levels break hote hain, to selling pressure barh sakta hai aur key support 1.2451 tak test kiya ja sakta hai. Is level ke breach hone par GBP/USD pair mazeed upward movement kar sakta hai, aur ascending channel ke upper boundary ko 1.3000 ke aas paas test karne ka imkaan hai.

**GBP/USD Ka Price Movement Aur Analysis**

GBP/USD currency pair ke price movement se zahir hota hai ke market me bears ka control aa gaya hai, jo ke non-farm payroll data ke release ke baad hua. Price 1.3141 level se neeche gir gayi hai, aur downward trend ka silsila tab tak barqarar rehne ki umeed hai jab tak yeh 1.2796 tak nahi pohnchti. Agar pair 1.2793 ke neeche stabilize hota hai, to price zigzag pattern me girti rahegi. Indicators buy positions me kami dikhate hain, aur RSI thoda sa barh raha hai, jo ke H4 chart ke aakhri candle ke temporary upward movement ki wajah se hai. Naye resistance levels ki kami se price drop hone ke chances zyada hain, aur market reversal ki umeed kam ho gayi hai kyunki U.S. dollar mazboot ho raha hai.

Analysis ke mutabiq, GBP/USD exchange rate kuch had tak 1.3169 tak barh sakta hai, aur phir downward trend ka silsila jari rehne ki umeed hai, jo buyers ke support level 1.3074 ke neeche girne ke baad aage badh sakta hai. Yeh level wo jagah ho sakti hai jahan buyers apne stop-loss orders rakh sakte hain. Lekin, ek alternative scenario yeh hai ke agar price 1.3179 ke upar breakout aur consolidate hoti hai, to British pound mazboot ho sakta hai aur saal ke naye highs tak pohnch sakta hai, jo ke 1.3264 ke aas paas ho sakte hain. Filhal indicators price chart me significant rise ki bajaye decline ki taraf zyada lean kar rahe hain. Federal Reserve ke aane wale meeting aur interest rate decision ki wajah se market next week high volatility ka shikaar ho sakta hai, isliye cautiously trade karna aur stop-loss orders ka istemal karna behtar hoga.

Chart ye bhi dikhata hai ke potential U.S. recession ka zikar nahi hua, jo pehle GBP/USD exchange rate me thodi si udaan ka sabab bana, lekin yeh trend jaldi reverse ho gaya aur ab price gir rahi hai. Decline ko 1.3010 par support mil sakta hai, jo ke price ko rebound karne aur overall upward trend ko jari rakhne ki sahulat de sakta hai. GBP/USD pair ne economic data releases ki wajah se significant volatility dekhi, aur weekly candle pin bar ke roop me close hui, jo yeh suggest karti hai ke agar price previous week's low 1.3082 ko break karti hai to decline continue ho sakti hai. Aise mein pair 1.3046 ya 1.3001 aur 1.2891 tak bhi gir sakta hai. Author is waqt sirf selling opportunities ko hi consider kar raha hai.

GBP/USD 1.2650 tak gir gaya hai. Federal Reserve aur Bank of England ke darmiyan policy differences UK elections ke qareeb hone ke bawajood pair ko kamzor bana rahe hain, jab ke positive expectations bhi hain. British calendar ke khatam hone ke baad, tawajjo American news par shift ho gayi hai. 4-hour chart par momentum indicator 50 se neeche hai, jo buyers ki lack of interest ko darshata hai. Doosri taraf, 100-day aur 50-day moving averages 1.2640 par mazboot support dete hain. Yeh level Fibonacci 38.2% retracement se bhi supported hai jo aakhri uptrend ke mutabiq hai. Agar GBP/USD is level ke neeche break karta hai aur isse resistance ke tor par use karta hai, to agla target 1.2600 (psychological level, stable level) aur 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) ho sakta hai. 1.2700 (4-hour chart par 200-SMA) foran resistance banata hai, uske baad 1.2730 (100-SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) aur 1.2800 (psychological level, stable level) hain. Lekin Tuesday ko pair surface ko clear karne mein nakam raha. Wednesday ko bhi pair thodi si pressure mein raha aur agar 1.2640 ka support toot gaya to ek broader rise dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

News ki kami ke bawajood, market ki ehtiyaat ne US dollar ko apne mukabil resilient banaye rakha. Central Bank officials ke dovish statements ne bhi USD ko support diya hai. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bauman ne Tuesday ko kaha ke wo abhi interest rates cut karne ke liye tayar nahi hain aur inflation stable ya volatile hone par rate hikes ke liye tayar hain. US stock market mein shares ki trading kaafi zyada hai. Agar Wall Street early comments se USD gains ko limit karta hai aur GBP/USD ko ek solid footing milti hai, to bhi pair ko strength ikattha karne mein mushkil ho sakti hai jab tak investors bade positions lene se pehle next week's British elections ka intezar kar rahe hain. US economic data mein sirf May ke new home sales shamil hain. April mein 4.7% girawat ke baad, agar is data mein bhi sharp decline aati hai to yeh Fed ki restrictive policies ka negative impact housing market par zahir kar sakta hai aur USD ko nuqsan pohcha sakta hai.

Is tarah se, baad mein hum zyada flexibility ke sath market ko dekh sakte hain. Is hafte ke bearish movement ke continuation se agle mahine ke shuruat mein downward trend ko momentum mil sakta hai, aur shayad zyada fundamentals bhi support karenge. Mere khayal se, agle kuch dinon ke liye Sell trading option ko consider kiya ja sakta hai. Agli market opportunity bhi bearish trend ko continue karne ka chance rakhte hain. Acha signal confirm karne ke liye hume sellers ka intezar karna hoga jo price ko 1.2621 ki taraf push kare. Iss doran, agle decline ka target yeh ho sakta hai ke candlestick 1.2601 ke neeche gir jaye.

Friday ko GBP/USD 1.2650 tak gir gaya. Federal Reserve aur Bank of England ke darmiyan policy differences UK elections ke qareeb hone ke bawajood pair ko kamzor bana rahe hain, jab ke positive expectations bhi hain. British calendar ke khatam hone ke baad, tawajjo American news par shift ho gayi hai. 4-hour chart par momentum indicator 50 se neeche hai, jo buyers ki lack of interest ko darshata hai. Doosri taraf, 100-day aur 50-day moving averages 1.2640 par mazboot support dete hain. Yeh level Fibonacci 38.2% retracement se bhi supported hai jo aakhri uptrend ke mutabiq hai. Agar GBP/USD is level ke neeche break karta hai aur isse resistance ke tor par use karta hai, to agla target 1.2600 (psychological level, stable level) aur 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) ho sakta hai. 1.2700 (4-hour chart par 200-SMA) foran resistance banata hai, uske baad 1.2730 (100-SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) aur 1.2800 (psychological level, stable level) hain. Lekin Tuesday ko pair surface ko clear karne mein nakam raha. Wednesday ko bhi pair thodi si pressure mein raha aur agar 1.2640 ka support toot gaya to ek broader rise dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Market ki ehtiyaat, news ki kami ke bawajood, US dollar ko apne mukabil resilient banaye rakha. Central Bank officials ke dovish statements ne bhi USD ko support diya hai. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bauman ne Tuesday ko kaha ke wo abhi interest rates cut karne ke liye tayar nahi hain aur inflation stable ya volatile hone par rate hikes ke liye tayar hain. US stock market mein shares ki trading kaafi zyada hai. Agar Wall Street early comments se USD gains ko limit karta hai aur GBP/USD ko ek solid footing milti hai, to bhi pair ko strength ikattha karne mein mushkil ho sakti hai jab tak investors bade positions lene se pehle next week's British elections ka intezar kar rahe hain. US economic data mein sirf May ke new home sales shamil hain. April mein 4.7% girawat ke baad, agar is data mein bhi sharp decline aati hai to yeh Fed ki restrictive policies ka negative impact housing market par zahir kar sakta hai aur USD ko nuqsan pohcha sakta hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, pehli support 21-day moving average (EMA) ke nazdeek 1.2600 par hai; aur further support 1.2500 ke nazdeek ascending channel ke lower boundary par expected hai. Agar yeh levels break ho jaate hain to selling pressure barh sakta hai aur key support 1.2451 ko test kiya ja sakta hai. Is level ke upar move se further uptrend ke liye raasta khul sakta hai, shayad GBP/USD ascending channel ke upper bounds 1.3000 ke nazdeek test karne ki koshish kare.

GBP/USD ANALYSIS
28 July 2024

Subah bakhair aur sabhi ko salam. Aap sab kaise hain? Umeed hai aap sab sehatmand hain taake apni daily routines ko bina kisi rukawat ke anjam de sakhein. Hamare forum ke doston ki trading results kaisi chal rahi hain? Kya aapne targeted profits hasil kiye hain ya abhi bhi losses ka samna kar rahe hain? Jo bhi nateeja ho, motivated rahen aur mehnat karte rahen, kyunki lagatar koshish se behtar aur consistent results milte hain.

Aaj subah, main GBP/USD currency pair ke movement par baat karunga. Pichle din, yeh currency pair apni pehli low se lagbhag 55 pips upar gaya. Lekin, price apni bullish momentum ko sustain nahi kar paayi. 1.2667 ke resistance level ko touch karne ke baad, price usse upar close nahi kar paayi aur reject ho gayi, neeche aayi.

Aaj ki prediction ke liye, GBP/USD currency pair kahan move karega? Kya yeh neeche ki taraf move karta rahega ya price kal ke high ki taraf badhegi aur higher resistance levels ko target karegi? Chaliye H1 timeframe par GBP/USD chart ko dekhte hain.

H1 chart ke mutabiq, support aur resistance levels yeh hain jo aaj ke trading mein madadgar sabit ho sakte hain:

- Resistance 3: 1.2755
- Resistance 2: 1.2697
- Resistance 1: 1.2667
- Pivot point: 1.2639
- Support 1: 1.2610
- Support 2: 1.2582
- Support 3: 1.2524

H1 chart dekh kar, GBP/USD ka trend bearish lag raha hai. Price 50-period MA line ke neeche hai, aur bearish sentiment ko daily pivot point 1.2639 ke neeche rahne se aur zyada support milta hai. Filhal, selling trades ko consider kiya ja sakta hai kyunki price ne 50-period MA line se rejection dikhayi hai, aur target Support 1 par 1.2610 rakha gaya hai. Agar price is level ke neeche close karti hai, to yeh Support 2 par 1.2582 ki taraf gir sakti hai. Ek alternative trade idea yeh ho sakta hai ke agar price Support 1 par 1.2610 ke neeche close nahi karti, to is level se bounce ho sakta hai aur target upar ke level ki taraf rakha ja sakta hai. Yeh sab kuch hai jo main filhal share kar sakta hoon. Shukriya aur sabko kamiyabi ki duayein!

Subah bakhair mere doston, pichle hafte GBP/USD pair ki price ab bhi bearish direction mein move kar rahi thi. Market situation yeh lag rahi thi ke price aur neeche gir sakti hai aur 100-period simple moving average zone ko bhi break kar sakti hai. Yeh position lagbhag 100-period simple moving average line ke neeche aur neeche jaane ki koshish kar rahi thi, jo is mahine ki market journey ko downtrend ki taraf indicate karti hai. Filhal, ek upward correction dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Mere khayal se, ek sell signal ke intezar mein rahna chahiye, aur aapko bas itna hi karna hai ke fundamental momentum ko strong hone dena hai taake market apni decline ko continue kar sake, jaise kuch din pehle ka market situation thi.

June ke shuruat se, GBP/USD pair bearish situation mein chal raha tha, aur yeh is hafte aur neeche ja sakta hai. Pichle hafte ki market situation ki tarah, ab bhi price upward correction mein hai. Aage, sellers ab bhi price ko lower position par laane ki koshish karenge. Is mahine candlestick neeche gayi hai aur ab apni bearish streak ko continue karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Isliye, main ab bhi market par dhyan de raha hoon jaise ki yeh planned downtrend ke according move kar raha hai.

Aane wale waqt mein, humein market ki development ko dekhne ke liye zyada flexibility aur freedom milegi. Is hafte ke bearish movement ki continuation se agle mahine ke shuruat mein downward trend ko momentum mil sakta hai, aur shayad fundamentals bhi is trend ko support karenge. Aam taur par, mere khayal se, agle kuch dinon ke liye Sell trading option ab bhi consider kiya ja sakta hai. Agli market opportunity ab bhi bearish trend ko continue karne ka chance rakhti hai. Achhi signal ko confirm karne ke liye humein sellers ke 1.2621 ki taraf price push karne ka intezar karna hoga. Filhal, agle decline ka target yeh ho sakta hai ke candlestick 1.2601 ke price area ke neeche aur gir sakti hai.

British pound ne Thursday ko US dollar ke muqablay mein uncertain raasta face kiya. Currency apne longer-term moving average ke nazdeek hover kar rahi thi, bina kisi clear direction ke. Yeh indecisiveness US economy se mixed signals ki wajah se thi. Positive side par, US jobless claims, jo unemployment ka measure hai, behtar aayi. Yeh US labor market ke strengthen hone ka indication hai. Iske ilawa, US GDP growth for the first quarter ko thoda upar revise kiya gaya, jo zyada robust US economy ko suggest karta hai. Magar, in positive signs ko inflation ke concerns ne counterbalance kar diya. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), jo key inflation gauge hai, pehle quarter mein thoda rise hui. Investors core PCE data ke release ka intezar kar rahe hain jo Friday ko aayega, ummeed hai ke inflation aur cool-down ho aur Federal Reserve interest rate cuts par soch sake. Market jitters ko aur badhawa de rahi hai upcoming US presidential election. Investors candidates ke debates ko closely dekh rahe hain jo is hafte ke end mein scheduled hain, taake unke potential economic policies ke bare mein insights mil sakein.

Pound bhi is tug-of-war mein phansa hua hai. Gains ke period ke baad, isne recently selling pressure face kiya aur ek key short-term upward trend line ke neeche gir gaya. Lekin, isne apne 50-day moving average par support paaya, jo steeper decline ko roknay mein madadgar sabit hua. Agar downward pressure continue hota hai, toh pound $1.2655 ke support level ko breach kar sakta hai, jo aage chal kar $1.2620 aur $1.2598 ki taraf girne ka potential rakhta hai, jo is saal ke shuruat mein dekha gaya tha. Overall, pound ki direction US data ke outcome aur upcoming US election se potential policy changes ke perception par depend karti hai. Jab tak yeh uncertainties resolve nahi hoti, pound holding pattern mein rehne ki ummeed hai.

GBP/USD Price Review

Hum GBP/USD currency pair ke current behavior analysis par baat karenge. Agar pair H1 resistance 1.2681 ko break kar leti hai, toh growth ka potential hai. Successful breakout se probability lagbhag 90% tak badh jati hai, lekin 1.2696 level par 10% uncertainty reh jati hai jahan pair retrace kar sakti hai. Agar yeh level hit hota hai, toh mujhe lagta hai ke growth 1.2781 tak pahunch sakti hai, jo H1 resistance ke sath coincide karta hai, aur 1.2696 se breakout hone ke baad 1.2721 ya 1.2621 H1 support ho sakta hai. Agar retracement 1.2751 se hoti hai, toh H1 support 1.2546 hoga. Lekin, agar 1.2696 tak bounce back hota hai toh scenario complicated ho sakta hai aur further decline ko rok sakta hai. Retracement ke baad, growth 1.2781 tak continue ho sakti hai, jahan bearish reversal ho sakta hai agar aur koi breakout nahi hota, jo growth ko 1.3126 tak push kar sakta hai. Agar 1.2611 range tak decline dekha aur successful breach hota hai, toh sell signal signal milega. Agar price 1.2611 ke neeche break karti hai aur consolidate karti hai, toh yeh sell signal ko reinforce karega.

1.2624 ka false breakdown pehle hi ho chuka hai, jo continued growth ka signal hai. Resistance 1.2706 ko break karne se US session mein growth ko aur support milega. European session ke dauran minor southward correction ho sakti hai, lekin uske baad growth resume hone ki ummeed hai. 1.2611 range ko test karne ke baad slight decline ke sath growth hone ki sambhavana hai. 1.2621 ka false breakdown ke baad growth rate continue ho sakti hai. Filhal, uptrend ke andar trading se lagta hai ke growth continue hogi, shayad 1.2611 se. Agar 1.2711 range ko break karke uske upar consolidate karti hai, toh yeh buy signal hoga. Main ab bhi 1.2624 par false breakdown ki umeed rakhta hoon, jo buying opportunity present karega. 1.2704 ka successful breakthrough aur uske upar consolidate karne se further growth ka signal milega. GBP/USD pair key resistance aur support levels ke adhar dono upward aur downward movements ka potential dikhata hai. In levels ko monitor karna short- to medium-term direction ko anticipate karne ke liye crucial hoga.

Chaliye GBP/USD currency pair ke D1 timeframe chart ka tajziya karte hain. Hum dekh sakte hain ke ek descending cycle symmetrical triangle pattern bana raha hai. Ek standard technical level 1.2566 ke closing price par draw kiya ja sakta hai, aur iske ird-gird ka area price decline ke liye target ban sakta hai. Isliye, filhal ka chhota uptrend corrective mana jata hai, aur iske khatam hone ko lower timeframes par monitor karna chahiye. Hume support se resistance mein key level switch ko dekhna hoga, jaise M5 timeframe par, taake downward movement ki confirmation mil sake. CCI indicator ek baar phir oversold zone mein hai aur reverse hone ke liye tayar hai, jo uptrend ke hone ke chances ko badhata hai. Lekin, price ko bounce karne ke liye support nahi mil raha; support level 1.2566 ke lower level par hai. Aaj ki main news package 15:30 Moscow time par shamil hai: US mein unemployment benefits lene walon ki total number, US mein Core Durable Goods Orders, US mein Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, US mein Durable Goods Orders, US Goods Trade Balance, US mein Initial Jobless Claims, aur US Gross Domestic Product. Mujhe lagta hai agar price is news ke aane se pehle decline nahi karti, toh news ke baad react karegi. Filhal, decline ke chances kam hain kyunke previous uptrend wave ka low update ho chuka hai.

Hourly chart par, hum dekh sakte hain ke kal ka recent downtrend wave bhi sub-waves mein divided hai: ek initial wave, second wave mein retracement, aur third wave mein continuation. Filhal, fourth wave mein retracement ho rahi hai, jo fifth wave ke continuation ke liye signal hai. Yeh CCI indicator ke bearish convergence se bhi indicate hota hai. Cycle ke minimum ke neeche break karne par, wave structure complete ho jayega, aur MACD indicator par bullish divergence dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo Monday ke similar normal-sized corrective wave ka result ban sakta hai.

GBP/USD PAIR REVIEW

Do din se British pound ka US dollar ke muqablay mein price rebound karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, lekin iski gains 1.2698 ke level se aage nahi barh rahi, jo ke analysis likhte waqt wahan stable hai. Currency pair apne downward shift ke losses se recover karne ki koshish kar raha hai, jo ise 1.2622 ke support level tak le gaya, jo ke chhe hafton mein sabse neecha hai. Recent downward move investors ke Britain ke monetary policy aur political future ko evaluate karne ke baad aaya hai.

Pichle haftay, Bank of England (BoE) ne interest rates ko unchanged rakha, jisse August mein rate cut ki ummeed jagi hai policy makers ke comments ke baad. Domestic inflation report ne bhi yeh dikhaya ke headline inflation Bank of England ke 2% target tak gir gayi. Aane wale GDP figures economic insight provide karenge, jisse Friday ke strong retail sales data ne Bank of England ke comments se kuch optimism ko kam kiya.

Is darmiyan, "Gamblegate" scandal, jo ke British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ke aides ka election date par betting ka hai, ne major political unrest create kiya aur campaign ke baqi hisson ko overshadow karne ka khauf hai, jahan Labour ko bade margin se jeet ki umeed hai.

Ab sawal yeh hai: Is haftay pound ke dollar ke muqablay exchange rate ke kya expectations hain?

Hum believe karte hain ke pound rate mazeed kamzori ke liye vulnerable rahega, lekin agar Friday ko headline inflation reading kamzor aayi, toh pound ko rebound dekhnay ko mil sakta hai. Pound ne US dollar ke muqablay mein short-term downtrend enter kiya hai, lekin agar key moving average par support bana raha, toh aane wale dinon mein thoda rebound dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Niche chart GBP/USD ko 100-day moving average 1.2639 tak girte huye dikhata hai, jo pichle hafte ki selling ko rokne aur aane wale dinon mein support provide karne ke liye nazar aata hai.

Economic calendar ko dekhte hue, Britain mein is haftay kuch khaas activity nahi hai, lekin United States se interest zaroor hoga. Sab ki nazar US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure release par hai Friday ko, jo ke US Federal Reserve ke interest rate expectations ko dekhte hue important hai. Core personal consumption expenditures rate ka 0.1% monthly aur 2.6% annually hone ka expectation hai. Agar yeh expectations se zyada hota hai, toh dollar haftay ke aakhir mein highest level par aa sakta hai, aur pound sterling ka price mid-May se lowest levels tak gir sakta hai.

Lekin agar data expectations se kam hota hai, toh GBP/USD mein achi rally dekhne ko mil sakti hai jo near term mein outlook ko stabilize kar sakti hai. Magar, strength limited rahegi kyunki US dollar US stock market ki continued outperformance se benefit ho raha hai. Is silsile mein, Credit Agricole ka kehna hai ke US stocks ki superior performance international capital ko US stock markets mein attract karte rahegi, jo ke US dollar ko support dega.

Hello, GBP/USD mid-May se apne sabse neeche levels se bounce kar raha hai, lekin ismein kisi bhi follow-through buying ki kami hai. Yeh background bulls ke liye caution ki zaroorat ko darshata hai, khas taur par key US macro data ke aane se pehle. Technical setup yeh suggest karta hai ke pair ke liye sabse asaan raste niche ki taraf hain. 100-day aur 50-day simple moving averages 1.2640 par ek key pivot level banate hain. Agar GBP/USD is level ko dubara nahi pakad pata aur ise resistance ke taur par use karta hai, toh technical sellers ke liye interest barh sakta hai. Is scenario mein, 1.2600 (psychological level, static level), 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement), aur 1.2550 (200-day SMA) next bearish targets ho sakte hain. Agar GBP/USD 1.2640 ko support bana leta hai, toh 1.2675 (4-hour chart par 50-period SMA) aur 1.2710-1.2720 (200-period SMA, latest downtrend level ka Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) targets ho sakte hain. GBP/USD ne Wednesday ko 0.5% gir kar 1.2620 ke niche ek mahine ka low touch kiya. Pair ne Thursday ke European morning mein 1.2650 ke taraf technical correction dikhaya, lekin technical outlook extended rebound ke liye convincing signs nahi de raha.

US economic document mein Bureau of Economic Analysis ka annual gross domestic product growth ke first quarter ka final revision shamil hoga. U.S. Department of Labor weekly initial jobless claims data bhi release karega, jo forecast ke mutabiq 236,000 honge week ending June 22 ko. Yeh investors ko softening labor market conditions yaad dilayega aur US dollar ko apne rivals ke muqablay kamzor karega. Is waqt, US stock index futures thode niche trade ho rahe hain. Market participants Donald Trump aur Joe Biden ke beech pehli presidential debate se pehle cautious reh sakte hain jo ke US session ke dauran hoga.