CRAZY-TRADER TRADING JOURNAL

The current gold price shows a movement that is still in the corrective phase, precisely in the wave ii structure within the Elliott Wave framework. If we observe more deeply using a technical approach, especially on the MACD indicator and price movement patterns, it can be seen that the last downward wave is still in the wave b structure of the ii correction. This indicates that the potential for an upward movement to form wave c as the closing part of wave ii is still wide open. It could even be higher if the price is able to break through the resistance and of course this wave calculation becomes invalid.





MACD with settings of 5,35,5 on the H1 chart shows a fairly clear positive divergence signal. The MACD histogram forms a higher low while the price creates a lower low. This condition is often an early indication that selling pressure is starting to weaken and the potential for a reversal or at least an upward correction is starting to form. This divergence strengthens the suspicion that the price is preparing to continue its upward movement in the short term before most likely continuing the larger downtrend in wave iii.

In addition, the current price position around the previous support area and approaching the medium-term moving average adds to the argument that gold has the opportunity to experience a technical increase in the near future. The short-term increase target is in the nearest resistance area which coincides with the Fibonacci retracement area of the previous decline, where wave c of ii has the potential to reach its peak. However, it should be noted that overall the large structure is still under downward pressure after the peak of wave 5 that was formed previously. This means that the current increase is likely to be temporary and will open up entry opportunities for medium-term sellers after wave ii ends.

In conditions like this, market players can take advantage of the bullish corrective opportunity as an opportunity to exit a less than optimal sell position or even take a short-term buy position with strict risk management while preparing to return to following the main bearish flow after wave c has finished forming.

Overview
For now, there seems to be momentum where gold is in a fairly crucial condition where the price is seen testing the bullish trend line. However, it should be understood that this condition could be a reversal momentum, aka there is a possibility of bearish if a significant breakout occurs. Conversely, if the price is seen just bouncing, then the bullish potential is considered to continue.


Analysis :

Part 1 refers to the indicator >>
Bollinger bands and MA 10 have crossed, indicating that the price will experience a correction (bearish assumption)
Fractals are above the candlestick indicating that the seller intensity tends to be dominant.
The Macd indicator is showing a sell signal after the red line is above the blue bar.


Part 2 refers to price action >>
The trend line still shows a bullish situation.
The price is still above the demand area, namely 3331.38 to 3334.60.
Fresh support is still below the price level, namely 3323.82 and 3323.82.
The nearest resistance is at the price level of 3351.66.




Conclusion of analysis :

Referring to the technical assumptions above, it is better for the trading scenario to wait for clear confirmation. This is enough to describe the opposite situation between technical price action and indicators so it is better to wait for confirmation that is in line to minimize the risk of transactions. The indications above are quite clear in describing the situation of gold movement which is likely to consolidate for a while.


Trading strategy :

• Buy option above the price level of 3334.60 with confirmation that the price is back above the middle BB.
• Sell option if the price breaks out below the trend line or level 33311.38.

The movement of gold prices on the short timeframe still shows a fairly dominant bearish bias. Currently, the price is moving below the MA 200 on the M5 timeframe, emphasizing the tendency of selling pressure that has not completely subsided. The price wave structure also shows a downward impulsive pattern indicating that the temporary correction phase has begun to lose momentum. As long as the price remains stuck below the resistance area of 3306-3315, the tendency to continue the decline is still greater than the opportunity for an upward reversal.




The MACD indicator also supports this view. Although the MACD histogram had shown an improvement in momentum after the sharp decline, the MACD line and signal began to approach conditions with the potential to cross downwards. This shows that the current corrective strength is limited and at risk of weakening in the near future. The bullish divergence that had formed previously seems to have been realized through a brief increase, so now I am refocusing on the opportunity to continue the downtrend.

From the perspective of the wave structure, it appears that the price has completed the corrective wave (2) and is now in the process of forming the initial part of the downward wave (3). Selling pressure will be further confirmed if the price is able to break through minor support in the range of 3288 which technically opens the way to the next target decline in the area of 3270. A deeper decline can even continue to 3260-3250 if the bearish pressure becomes stronger.

Conversely, if the price is surprisingly able to breakout above 3315 and stay above it, then this scenario must be re-evaluated because it has the potential to extend the upward correction to the area of 3340. However, as long as the price is below this resistance, the short-term outlook for gold remains more in favor of further decline with the main focus on the development of an impulsive wave downward

At this time the analysis chart shows a scenario where gold appears to be stuck at the resistance level of 3368.80 and if weakening occurs with the assumption of a bullish trendline breakout, then you should be careful if there is a buy position, because it could be that the decline will continue by referring to the conditions in the main timeframe, namely the 4-hour interval. Thus, the breakout scheme will determine the direction of further trading.





GOLD finally posted a bullish daily trend again by creating a higher 3366. The bullish potential could continue if the price remains consistently above the trend line and remains above the level of 3346.42 which is a potential support as a bullish re-entry level.

In general, considering this bullish trend, the opportunity for a rally will still be quite open considering that yesterday the USD Index was still unable to show a positive trend. Thus, the BUY GOLD trading option by providing a loss limit in the strong dynamic support area of the EMA200 TF H1 orange line at the price level of 3295 will still be the most profitable follow trend trading option today. If later the Seller succeeds in breaking down the support area, then we need to prepare a long-term bearish scenario because it is likely that this condition will be the beginning of a bearish trend reversal.

Support resistance level:

• The nearest resistance is at the price level of 3368.80.
• The RBS level created is at the price of 3356.36.
• The demand area is at the price level of 3334.24 to 3338.89.
• Fresh support that has not been tested by price is 3306.47.

We analyse the Gold pair using the H1 timeframe, it can be seen that the current price is playing below the Moving Average Indicator period 21 and also the Moving Average Indicator period 34 which means that the trend direction is moving in a Bearish trend condition, and therefore I will try to find Sell opportunities for the Gold pair.

Support and resistance areas that we need to pay attention to on the H1 timeframe.

• Support 3280
• Resistance 3498

In conditions of a Bearish trend direction, I will try to focus on finding Sell opportunities for the Gold pair, I will wait for a price correction to occur first and after that I will wait for a reversal pattern to form on a small timeframe, and for the placement of the stop loss can be adjusted from the reversal pattern formed on a small timeframe, and for the placement of the target I will place it in the support area at the price level of 3280, below I will attach an image as a guide to the analysis I made above.

Note:
H1 trend direction Bearish
Sell position order option
Stop loss adjusts
Target 3280




The movement of GOLD is also more or less affected by the strengthening of the USD where the price is able to make a fairly large decline again where the price is able to penetrate EMA21 quite easily and even if we just noticed there was a gap in the decline which is incredibly large where I see it there is a chance for GOLD to even be able to go back down at least below 3300 again and penetrate the weekly pivot this week too, even if the seller must be very alert with the oscillator on H4 which is clearly visible that the current condition is that the price is back in an oversold position again and there is still a possibility of reversing direction and continuing the movement that is more bullish again.

I will try to analyze the Gold pair using the H1 timeframe, it can be seen that the current price is playing above the Moving Average Indicator period 21 and also the Moving Average Indicator period 34 which means that the trend direction is moving in a Bullish trend condition, and therefore I will try to find Buy opportunities for the Gold pair with the trading technique that I currently have.

Support and resistance areas that we need to pay attention to on the H1 timeframe

• Support 3277
• Resistance 3521

In the condition of the trend direction moving Bullish trend, then I will try to find Buy opportunities, I will wait for the price correction to occur first and after that I will wait for the formation of a reversal pattern on a small timeframe, and for the placement of the stop loss can be adjusted from the reversal pattern on a small timeframe and for the placement of the target I will place it in the resistance area at the price level of 3521, below I will attach an image as a guide to the analysis that I made above.

Note:
H1 Bullish trend direction
Buy position order option
Stop loss adjusts
Target 3521

Continuing to be filled with the dominance of bullish candlesticks that are formed, further strengthening the very strong bullish trend and potentially continuing to rise even higher considering that the current world economic situation is still under pressure from the trade war carried out by America, making Gold a valuable asset that is hunted by investors. Trading on Tuesday ahead of the European market session saw the price of Gold continue to be driven up bullish by buyers, making the price almost touch the psychological price as well as the highest ATH price of all time at a price of 3500.

Based on my technical analysis, the movement of gold in the future still tends to rise to a price of 3350. This is because in the H1 timeframe the movement of GOLD has formed a bullish engulfing candle which is a strong enough signal to BUY GOLD to a price of 3350. In addition, in my observations on the RSI 14 indicator, it turns out that the current price of GOLD has not been declared overbought or is still not too saturated with buying so that it is likely that the price of gold will rise again to a price of 3350. The BUY GOLD signal is also supported by the use of the SNR and Fibonacci methods because when the GOLD price entered the 3289s it was already in the RBS area or Resistance Become Support so that it is very possible for BUYERS to make purchases of GOLD up to the price of 3350s. The results of my technical analysis for the movement of GOLD in the future, I decided to BUY GOLD up to the price of 3350s.
In the movement of GOLD itself as a whole, it can be said that the main trend is still under bullish influence, even though yesterday it was clear that GOLD itself seemed to be trying to decline again and even brought the price back to trading below 3300, even though it was like what we could see after that the price actually moved up again and now we can see that the price is back above 3320 again and at least above EMA8, which of course provides a great opportunity for those who want to buy back, at least even though they still have to be vigilant with whatever it is.
In the future, at least my main focus is still to buy back, with a target of maybe being able to penetrate the important area of 3350 first, which if this important area can be penetrated, then the bullish opportunity can still happen in the future.

Tonight I will try to provide an overview of the movement of GOLD using technical analysis as a reference.
The general overview of the movement of GOLD today, according to my analysis, technically, still tends to be corrected down to a price of 3286. This is because on the H1 timeframe the movement of GOLD has formed a bearish candle engulfing which is a strong enough signal to SELL GOLD to a price of 3286. In addition, in my observations on the RSI 14 indicator, it turns out that the price of GOLD at 3315 has been declared overbought or has been too saturated to buy so that it is very likely that today gold will be corrected down quite deeply to a price of 3286. The results of my technical analysis for the movement of GOLD tonight, I decided to SELL GOLD to a price of 3286.




The trend direction is moving in a Bullish trend condition, and therefore I will try to find Buy opportunities for the Gold pair with the trading technique that I currently have.

Support and resistance areas that we need to pay attention to on the H1 timeframe.
Support 3192
Resistance 3360

In the condition of the Bullish trend direction against the Gold pair, then I will wait for a price correction first and after that I will wait for a reversal pattern to form on a small timeframe and for the placement of the stop loss can be adjusted from the reversal pattern formed on a small timeframe and for the placement of the target I will place it in the resistance area at the price level of 3360, below I will attach an image as a guide to the analysis that I made above.

Note:
H1 Bullish trend direction
Buy position order option
Stop loss adjusts
Target 3360

Today, I am again monitoring the movement of GOLD prices on the H1 time frame using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. Overall, the market structure still shows moderate bullish strength. The price is moving steadily above the Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) which indicates that the short-term uptrend is still valid. It can also be seen that the price has tried several times to penetrate the minor resistance level in the range of 3234.40, but has not been able to penetrate it convincingly. Tenkan-sen (red line) is still above Kijun-sen (dark blue line), strengthening the bullish signal, although momentum is starting to slow down with several corrective candles forming near the 3228 level.





A deeper analysis shows that the Kijun-sen line is currently functioning as dynamic support, which is around the price of 3215–3220. This is an important area to watch. If the price is able to maintain its position above this area, then the potential for further increases to the range of 3245 to 3250 is still wide open. However, if selling pressure strengthens and the price breaks below Kijun-sen, then there is a possibility of a deeper correction approaching the upper limit of Kumo around 3200-3210. It should be noted that the shape of the forward cloud is still expanding and tends to point upwards, which supports the view that the short-term trend remains under the control of buyers, as long as there is no significant breakout below the cloud.

Considering all of these Ichimoku technical aspects, today's strategy is to wait and see to validate the resistance breakout. If the price is able to close above 3235 with increasing volume, then a buy entry can be considered with a short-term target of 3245-3250 and a stop loss below Kijun-sen. Conversely, if the price starts to weaken and breaks below 3215, then the correction can be used for scalping sell towards the 3200 area. Also be aware of fundamental factors such as US inflation data or speeches by Fed officials that can trigger sudden volatility in gold prices. Hopefully this journal will help colleagues in making more measured and objective trading decisions. Stay disciplined and always adhere to risk management.

Trading instrument GOLD - D1 period chart. The wave structure is currently building its order upwards on this senior period, the MACD indicator is in the upper purchase zone, but is already decreasing and has dropped below its signal line. The decline that happened the week before last was quite expected since there have long been significant reasons for this. Well, the truth is that the decline is not particularly large relative to the previous growth, but still better than nothing at all.




The MACD indicator tried to break the bearish divergence formed on it, but it still remained and did not break. It is quite large in size. A bearish divergence was also formed on the second used CCI indicator. Finally, these signals did not go unnoticed and the price sank. At first, the price was not allowed to go down by the horizontal support level 3054, which gave its rebound upwards. Even on this senior period, you can see how the price left a candle spike when touching the level. But then sales resumed and then this level was broken downwards. And at the same time, the short ascending support line was broken downwards. The road to the older ascending line built on the bottoms of the waves and the support level of 2955 was opened.





As you can see, the price was able to reach there and it is clear that it is unlikely to just go down from this place. An upward rebound was expected, but instead of just a rebound, a full-fledged flight upwards with an update of the historical maximum was obtained. When updating the top, a bearish divergence was formed on the used indicators MACD and CCI. Buying here at the top and behind the maximum no longer makes sense, but you could take a closer look at selling when confirmation is formed on a shorter period.