ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AUD/USD currency pair

ka chart Australian Dollar aur US Dollar ke darmiyan ke exchange rate ke trend ko dikhata hai. Is chart mein kuch mahino ka data hai jo hamen market ke behavior ko samajhne mein madad deta hai.
Trend Analysis: Chart par dekhne se maloom hota hai ke March se lekar August tak yeh pair mostly sideways raha, yani price mein ziada movement nahi thi. Lekin August ke baad AUD/USD pair ne upward movement shuru ki, jo September ke end tak barqarar rahi. Is doran price ne apna high touch kiya jo takreeban 0.6900 ke aas-paas tha. Lekin October ke shuru mein price mein strong decline aaya aur yeh downward trend mein chali gayi. Yeh shift humein sellers ke dominant hone ka indication de rahi hai.
Support aur Resistance Levels**: Chart mein kuch ahem support aur resistance levels bhi notice kiye ja sakte hain. Pehla resistance level 0.6500 ke aas-paas hai, jahan October mein price ne baar baar resistance face kiya aur wahan se neeche gir gayi. Isi tarah, 0.6300 ka level support ke taur par kaam kar raha hai, jo price ke further decline ko rok raha hai.
Volume Analysis: Volume bars ko dekhte hue yeh lagta hai ke kuch specific points par market mein buying aur selling pressure barhta hai. Khaas taur par recent days mein buying volume mein izafa hua hai, jo is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke shayad buyers market mein wapas aana shuru ho gaye hain aur price ko support mil raha hai.



Current Scenario aur Possible Strategy**: Filhal, AUD/USD pair November mein 0.6500 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Volume ka izafa aur price ka is level par rehna indicate karta hai ke yeh level support ka kaam kar sakta hai. Agar yeh support barqarar rehti hai, toh price 0.6600 ya us se ooper tak ja sakti hai. Lekin agar yeh level break hota hai, toh price neeche gir kar 0.6300 ka level test kar sakti hai. Is liye, agar aap short-term trade ke liye soch rahe hain, toh buying position ke liye 0.6600 ka target aur stop loss 0.6300 par rakhna behtar ho sakta hai.

AUD/USD ke H1 timeframe par kuch ahem support aur resistance levels dekhnay mein aa rahay hain. Ahm resistance level takreeban 0.66848 par hai, jabkay kareebi support 0.65625 aur agla support lagbhag 0.65132 par hai. EMA indicator bhi trend ke rukh par raushni daal raha hai, kyunke price action ne hal hi mein EMA line ke paas reject karte hue neeche ka rukh ikhtiyar kiya hai, jo is ilaqay mein sellers ki taqat ko zahir karta hai. Is waqt price EMA ke neeche hai, jo short-term trend mein bears ka ghalba dikhata hai. 8-9 November ko ek thez girawat ke baad, lagta hai ke yeh pair ab consolidation ya correction ke phase mein hai. Traders ke liye kuch mansoobay madde nazar hain: agar price 0.65625 ke support level ko strong volume ke sath torh deti hai, toh yeh bearish trend ke continuity ka ishara ho sakta hai, jo aglay support level 0.65132 tak le ja sakta hai. Magar neeche jane se pehle pullback ka imkaan bhi ho sakta hai. Agar price dobara EMA par ja kar isay test karay, toh yeh level dynamic resistance ka kirdar ada kar sakta hai. Agar price EMA se bounce karti hai, toh yeh sell position enter karne ka acha mauqa ho sakta hai jiska target kareebi support ho sakta hai. Agar price EMA ko break kar kay uspe rehti hai, toh yeh reversal ka imkaan bhi ho sakta hai ya kam az kam consolidation ka, jo price ko 0.66848 resistance level tak push kar sakta hai. Har scenario ko confirm karne ke liye volume aur EMA interactions par nazar rakhna zaroori hai, jo possible trend directions par mazeed rehnumai faraham karenge.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Daily

Hello Victor! Mujhe pata hai ke aap forex market mein kaafi experienced hain, is liye aapki price behavior ke baare mein observations kaafi valuable hain! Kya aapko lagta hai ke unhone apna mind already badal diya hai?

Theory ke mutabiq, yeh hi kuch hua hai AUD/USD ke saath – uptrend ka mark tha aur ab woh khatam ho gaya hai. Mere technique ke mutabiq, yeh expect kiya gaya tha ke price ek kaafi impressive resistance level ko test karega – 0.6645, jo ke Ichimoku cloud ke lower band ke saath ban raha tha aur local MA18 ne bhi is level ko reach kiya. Ab, indicators ki readings ke mutabiq hum kya expect kar sakte hain:

- MA100 parallel space se move kar raha hai floor ke aas-paas, jo ke flat mode ka sign hai, aur yeh week ke liye kaafi signal de raha hai.
- MA18 ne MA100 ko upar se neeche cross kiya, jo ke ek "dead cross" hai – iska matlab sell signal. Yeh cross achi tarah se downward jaa raha hai, aur light ka movement 40-degree ke angle pe neeche ho raha hai, matlab practically vertically south.
- Ichimoku cloud abhi bullish colors mein hai, jo isko zyada pumped-up dikha raha hai. Forecast ke context mein, technical pattern phir se bearish ho raha hai aur MA100 ke neeche ribbon ko drag kar raha hai.


Lagta hai ke is pair mein kaafi bearish momentum hai. Shayad hum 0.6645 resistance ke aas-paas flatten ho jaayein, aur phir hum south ki taraf move karein.

Dusri taraf, dollar par bhi pressure hai lekin elections hain aur results kal aa sakte hain, toh market kaafi volatile ho sakti hai. Halanke, main khud long-term initiative par focus karna zyada pasand karunga. Is liye, agar hum phir se 0.6575 ke neeche aa jaate hain, toh main wahan buy karne ka sochunga.

نومبر 12 2024 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کے لیے پیشن گوئی

7 اور 8 نومبر کے درمیان، آسٹریلوی ڈالر مختصر طور پر 0.6640 مزاحمتی سطح سے اوپر ٹوٹ گیا، 0.6570 سپورٹ لیول پر پیچھے ہٹنے سے پہلے، جسے اب یہ آج صبح توڑنے کی کوشش کر رہا ہے۔ اس کے ساتھ ہی، قیمت کے اس اضافے کے دوران، مارلن آسیلیٹر بھی مختصر طور پر صفر کی لکیر سے اوپر چلا گیا۔



یہ مطابقت پذیر پیٹرن اشارہ کرتا ہے کہ اضافہ غلط تھا۔ اوپر کی تصحیح ختم ہو گئی ہے۔ خاص طور پر، تصحیح کی شدت تقریباً 38.2% فبونیکی ریٹریسمنٹ لیول کے ساتھ بالکل سیدھ میں ہے۔ 0.6561 کے 8 نومبر کی کم سے نیچے کا وقفہ 0.6482 پر اگلے ہدف کی طرف راستہ کھول دے گا۔

چار -گھنٹے کے ٹائم فریم میں، قیمت بیلنس اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے نیچے مستحکم ہو گئی ہے، جبکہ مارلن آسیلیٹر ایک تنگ رینج کے اندر مستحکم ہو رہا ہے، ممکنہ طور پر مزید کمی کے لیے رفتار پیدا کر رہا ہے۔ ہم امید کرتے ہیں کہ یا تو سپورٹ لیول سے نیچے ایک مضبوط وقفے کے ذریعے یا 8 نومبر کی نچلی سطح کی خلاف ورزی کے ذریعے مندی کی نقل و حرکت کی تصدیق ہوگی۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Australian dollar ka commodities, khaaskar metals aur minerals ke prices ke saath strong relation hai, kyunki Australia in resources ka major exporter hai. Agar metals, jaise iron ore, ke prices decline karti hain, toh AUD par negative asar padhta hai. Iske ilawa, Australia ka close economic relationship hai China ke saath, toh agar Chinese economy mein slowdown hota hai, toh Australian exports ki demand kam ho sakti hai, jo AUD ko impact kar sakta hai. Aaj kal ke global economic uncertainties, jahan inflationary pressures aur recession risks high hain, investors ko U.S. dollar ko safe haven ki tarah prefer karne par majboor kar sakti hain, jo AUD par aur zyada pressure dalti hai.Monetary policy stance bhi AUD par key role play karti hai. Agar Federal Reserve hawkish stance maintain karta hai, yani interest rates ko raise karta hai ya tight monetary policy ka signal deta hai, toh yeh U.S. dollar ko aur strong bana sakta hai compared to other currencies, including the AUD. Doosri taraf, agar Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dovish stance adopt karta hai, toh yeh contrast AUD par pressure ko maintain rakhega.Current bearish trend ke bawajood, kaafi traders speculate kar rahe hain ke agle kuch dinon mein AUD/USD mein ek bara movement ho sakta hai. Yeh anticipation kuch reasons ki wajah se ho sakta hai. Pehli baat yeh hai ke traders expect karte hain ke central bank policies mein koi shift ho ya koi naya economic data aaye jo current trend ko alter kar de. Jaise, agar RBA se unexpected rate hike hota hai ya Fed ka tone soften hota hai, toh bearish sentiment mein jaldi reversal aa sakta hai. Iske ilawa, agar Australia se positive economic data aata hai, jaise strong employment numbers ya GDP growth mein improvement, toh AUD ko support mil sakta hai.Technical analysis ke hawale se dekha jaye, agar AUD/USD pair kisi key support level tak pohanch kar hold karta hai, toh buyers attract ho sakte hain jo reversal ki umeed mein position le sakte hain, jis se large movement ho sakta hai. Waise hi, agar pair apne support level se neeche break karta hai, toh selling aur zyada ho sakti hai, jo downside movement ko trigger kar sakti hai.Ultimately, jabke AUD/USD abhi 0.65324 par bearish hai, ye anticipation ke ek bara movement ho sakta hai mostly external factors aur economic announcements se judi hui hai. Market closely upcoming data releases aur central bank commentary ko dekh raha hai, toh jese hi economic aur monetary conditions evolve hoti hain, traders apni positions adjust karenge jo AUD/USD ko ek pronounced move de sakti hai.

AUD/USD is waqt 0.6536 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo ke doosri currency pairs ke muqable mein kamzor lag raha hai. Technical taur par yeh timeframe chart per negative lagta hai, is liye yeh ab long-term downside movement ke liye tayaar hai. Agle chand hafton mein yeh 0.6516 support level ko chho sakta hai. Is waqt Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ki value 51.7600 hai, jo ke is timeframe chart par bearish trend ko darshaati hai. Iss level par buying thori khatarnaak ho sakti hai, magar short period ke liye buying theek hai. Waqt ke sath Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator yeh bhi darsha raha hai ke price signal 0 level se neeche hai, jo ke bearish area ko show karta hai. Moving averages ne iss chart par confirm sell signal dikhaya hai. Agar currency pair ne upar ki taraf movement start ki toh yeh 0.6582 level tak ja sakta hai, aur phir wapis neeche aa sakta hai. Hum umeed kartay hain ke yeh price 0.6635 level tak jaaye jo ke second level of resistance hai. Agar price 0.6635 resistance level se upar consolidate ho gaya, toh mazeed upar jaane ka imkaan hai. Agar yeh plan kamiyab hota hai, toh mein umeed rakhta hoon ke price support level ki taraf move karega jo ke 0.6516 par hai. Agla support level 0.5843 area hai jo ke second level of support hai. Uske baad, pair mazeed neeche jaaye ga aur 0.5232 support level ko cross karay ga. Main intezaar karunga ke price local resistance level 0.6582 par wapis aaye. Price ne haali mein fresh three-month low se bounce back kiya, aur Tuesday ke European session mein 0.6521 ke key support level se neeche gira. Iss girawat ke baad pair ne apne intraday losses ko recover kiya. Price ka immediate support ab 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb hai jo ke 0.6710 par hai. Agar pair is level se neeche gir gaya, toh bearish sentiment mazid mazboot ho sakta hai, jo ke price ko 0.6475 region ki taraf le jayega, aur mazeed girawat ka target 0.6470 par hai. Dusri taraf, pair abhi nine-day EMA ko 0.6589 par test kar raha hai. Agar is resistance se breakout hota hai, toh yeh recent high 0.6748 ko retest kar sakta hai, jo ke ek potential reversal ka signal hai.