ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

Australian Dollar (AUD) Ka Rebound Aur Market Analysis -

Thursday ko Australian Dollar (AUD) ne aik significant rebound dikhaya, aur apne pichlay din ki losses ka almost pura hissa recover kar liya. Yeh currency US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein mazid strong hui, halanke Australia ka trade balance figure expected se kam tha. Australian Bureau of Statistics ne September ke liye chhota trade surplus report kiya, jo ke exports aur imports dono mein kami ki wajah se tha. Lekin Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki hawkish monetary policy stance ne AUD ko support diya. RBA ne apna cash rate 4.35% par maintain rakha aur inflationary pressures ko control karne ke liye rates ko high rakhne ka irada bhi diya. Iske ilawa, China mein economic stimulus measures ke barhte hue expectations ne Australian Dollar ke liye positive sentiment create kiya. China Australia ka major trading partner hai, is liye agar China ki economy mein koi positive developments hoti hain, toh iska direct asar Australian economy aur uski currency par padta hai.




Dosri taraf, US Dollar kamzor ho gaya hai Treasury yields ke girne aur Federal Reserve ke interest rate cut ke potential expectations ki wajah se. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, agle Fed meeting mein 25 basis points ka rate cut hone ke high chances hain. Technical perspective se dekhein toh, AUD/USD pair ne 0.6536 ke level ke upar consolidation pattern bana liya hai. Agar yeh 0.6656 ka level break hota hai, toh is se upward move ka signal mil sakta hai, jo ke 0.6492 ke level tak bhi jaa sakta hai. MACD indicator bhi is bullish outlook ko support karta hai. Lekin yeh zaroori hai ke yeh bhi samjha jaye ke pair global risk sentiment ke fluctuations aur interest rate expectations mein changes ke liye vulnerable hai. Agar market sentiment shift hota hai ya Federal Reserve ka stance hawkish hota hai, toh isse Australian Dollar par downward pressure aa sakta hai.

AUD/USD Pair Ka Analysis -

Currency pair November ke shuruat se ek impressive uptrend mein hai, jisme higher highs bana kar apni rally ko extend kiya hai. Yeh pair recently apne pichlay mahine ke high 0.6940 ko cross kar gaya, jo ke last month bana tha, aur yeh bullish momentum ko continue karne ka signal deta hai. Thodi si pullback ke baad, AUD/USD apni upward trajectory pe wapas aa gaya hai, aur traders ko lag raha hai ke yeh trend abhi barqarar rahega. Abhi ke update ke mutabiq, AUD/USD 0.6630 ke level ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, aur market iske further gains ke liye optimistic hai.

Is pair ka outlook dono fundamental aur technical factors par depend karta hai. Agar pair key EMAs ke upar support dhundta rahe aur momentum indicators positive rahe, toh yeh 0.6700 aur 0.6750 ke levels ki taraf upar jaa sakta hai. Lekin agar 0.6600 region ke neeche break hota hai, toh traders ko apni bullish bias ko dobara assess karna padega aur correction ka possibility dekhna hoga. Aane wali Australian retail sales data aur US PCE inflation report is pair ke next movement ko shape karne mein crucial honge.

AUD/USD Ke Fundamentals:

Aussie dollar ke positive momentum ke bawajood, Australia ki economic outlook kuch challenges ka samna kar rahi hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) abhi bhi persistent inflation se pareshan hai, is liye apni monetary policy decisions mein cautious approach apna raha hai. Recent inflation figures thodi kam hui hain, jiski wajah se markets ko lagta hai ke 2024 mein 25 basis point ka rate reduction ho sakta hai. Wednesday ko Australia ka monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) 3.5% par aaya, jo June mein 3.8% tha, lekin yeh ab bhi expected se zyada hai. Yeh figures immediate rate cuts trigger nahi kar paaye, lekin isne Aussie ko USD ke muqablay mein support diya hai. Investors aane wali Australian retail sales data ka intezaar kar rahe hain taake economy ki state ko aur behtar samajh sakein.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo greenback ki performance ko six major currencies ke muqablay mein track karta hai, ne thoda recovery dikhayi hai, 105.00 se 104.60 ke aas paas aa gaya hai. Lekin investors closely US ke upcoming core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data ko dekh rahe hain taake Federal Reserve ke future interest rate path ke bare mein aur clues mil sakein. PCE Price Index mein annual core inflation 2.7% tak barhne ka expect kiya gaya hai, jo ke June ke 2.6% se thoda zyada hai. Monthly figures bhi 0.2% tak barhne ki umeed hai. Yeh data USD movements ko influence karenge agle hafton mein.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

AUD/USD ke traders ke liye kuch key technical levels hain jo pair ke next move ko influence kar sakte hain. Immediate support 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas paas 0.6586 par hai, jo ke 14-day EMA ke saath 0.6606 tak hai. Agar yeh levels break ho jate hain, toh bullish outlook kamzor ho sakta hai aur pair par downward pressure aa sakta hai, jo 0.6564 ke throwback level tak le jaa sakta hai. Agar decline continue hota hai, toh next major support 0.6511 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Iske opposite, agar pair key resistance 0.6700 ko break karta hai, toh further gains ke liye raasta khul jayega, jiska potential target 0.6750 ho sakta hai.




Technical indicators abhi strong momentum ki taraf indicate kar rahe hain. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 64 par wapas aa gaya hai, jo yeh signal deta hai ke pair abhi positive territory mein hai aur aur zyada gains ka room hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) green aur flat hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke bullish trend short term mein barqarar rehne ki umeed hai. Traders in indicators ko closely monitor karenge taake trend reversal ya further upside potential ka pata chal sake jab pair key resistance levels ke aas paas pohanchta hai.

AUD/USD Ki Forecast -

Is hafta ke Monday ko AUD/USD price ek bullish gap ke sath khula, jiski wajah se baad mein yeh 26 aur 50 EMA lines ko upar ki taraf cross kar gaya. Iske baad yeh lag raha tha ke AUD/USD ki price upar jaayegi. Lekin kal, US elections ke chalte, AUD/USD ki price mein tezi se girawat aayi, jiski wajah se yeh moving average lines ko neeche ki taraf cross kar gayi. Aaj, buyer momentum ke strong hone ki wajah se AUD/USD ki price phir se upar ja rahi hai, aur isne 50 EMA line ko bhi upar ki taraf cross kiya hai. Is waqt, price dobara positive trend follow kar rahi hai.




Lekin overall trend bearish hai kyun ke AUD/USD ka price daily time frame chart par 50 EMA line ke neeche hai. Price pichlay kai trading days se jo trend line follow kar raha tha, wo maine diagram mein dikhayi thi, lekin kal AUD/USD ne 0.6514 support level ko touch kiya. Kal AUD/USD ne ek pin bar candle banayi thi, lekin candle ka body bearish tha kyunki price is support level se kaafi zyada badh gaya tha. Aaj ki candle ka body bullish hai, aur price upar ja raha hai. Price abhi 26 aur 50 EMA lines ke aas paas hai, aur 0.6467 ka resistance level bhi hai. Agar AUD/USD is resistance level ko break kar leta hai aur moving average lines ko upar ki taraf cross kar leta hai, toh trend ka direction change ho sakta hai. Agar price is resistance ke neeche rehta hai, toh AUD/USD bearish trend mein hi move karta rahega.

AUD/USD Mein Bullish Trend Ka Analysis -

Is chart mein AUD/USD currency pair ka current bullish trend dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke Australian dollar ke US dollar ke muqablay mein positive market sentiment ko reflect karta hai. Price lagatar upar ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo ke dheere dheere lekin continuous growth ko show karta hai, jo lagbhag 0.6570 se lekar 0.6650 tak pohanch gayi hai. Aisi upward movement yeh suggest kar sakti hai ke Australian dollar ki taqat barh rahi hai, ya phir US dollar kamzor ho raha hai, ya dono hi cheezain ho sakti hain. Red moving average line is upward trend ko support kar rahi hai kyunki iski slope clearly upar ki taraf hai. Yeh technical analysis ka ek hissa hai: moving average ek dynamic support line hoti hai jo trend ke general direction ko visualize karti hai. Jab tak price is line ke upar rehti hai, market ka sentiment bullish hi rehta hai.




Abhi ki price 0.6630 ke aas paas ek critical level ko test kar rahi hai. Chart pe dekhe gaye price action ke mutabiq, yeh ek resistance level hai jahan pe historically selling pressure barhta hai aur iski wajah se further upside movement rok jaati hai. Market ka is level par reaction short-term mein pair ke course ko define karne mein kaafi critical hoga. Sirf agar yeh level break hota hai, tab hi upside potential dikhayi dega, khaas tor pe agar strong bull candle ban rahi ho—jo ke chhoti ya bilkul no wick ke saath ho. Isse aur zyada buyers market mein aa sakte hain aur price ko upar le jaa sakte hain. Agar yeh resistance break nahi hota, toh price pullback kar sakti hai. Price moving average ki taraf waapas aa sakti hai, jo ek support level ki tarah kaam karega. Agar yeh support fail ho gaya, toh price aur neeche jaa sakti hai aur lower support zones ko test kar sakti hai.

0.6640 ka level ek important barrier hai jahan traders aur investors closely dekh rahe honge ke price uske aas paas kaise behave karti hai. Yeh level pair ke next significant move ke baare mein kuch valuable information de sakta hai. Is resistance level ke dynamics trading decisions ko affect kar sakte hain aur near-term mein AUD/USD ka trend define kar sakte hain.

AUD/USD currency pair abhi 0.65798 ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai aur trend bearish nazar aa raha hai. Pichle kuch sessions mein market mein ehtiyaat dekhi gayi hai aur yeh level ke aas-paas consolidate ho rahi hai. Australian dollar, jo zyada tar commodity prices aur risk sentiment se influence hota hai, global factors ki wajah se pressure mein hai. Is mein global growth ke concerns aur U.S. dollar ka strength bhi shamil hai, kyun ke jab investors ko economic challenges ka khatra hota hai toh USD ko safe haven ke tor par dekha jata hai.
AUD ke bearish movement ka aik bara sabab U.S. Federal Reserve ka tight monetary stance ho sakta hai. Interest rates bohot zyada high hain, jo USD ko strong rakhti hain aur doosri currencies, jaise AUD, ko neeche le aati hain. Yeh environment AUD ke liye unfavorable hai kyun ke investors zyada safe aur high-yielding assets ko pasand karte hain jo USD mein hoti hain. Iske ilawa, China ki economy ke hawale se uncertainty bhi AUD par negative impact daal rahi hai, kyun ke China Australia ka sab se bara trading partner hai. China mein demand ke slow hone ke asaraat, khaaskar iron ore jese Australia ke bade exports mein, Aussie dollar ko aur weaken kar sakte hain.
Is waqt toh trend bearish hai, lekin kuch bade developments aane wale dinon mein AUD/USD pair ko move kar sakte hain. Agar U.S. ki taraf se koi weak economic data release hota hai ya phir Federal Reserve apne rate hikes ko rokne ka ishara deti hai, toh USD weaken ho sakta hai, jo AUD ko recover karne ka moka dega. Lekin agar Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne koi dovish approach li ya expected rate hikes na kiye, toh AUD par aur pressure aa sakta hai.
Aik aur factor risk sentiment mein global changes ho sakte hain. AUD ko “risk-on” currency kaha jata hai aur yeh tab rally karta hai jab investors optimistic hote hain. Agar China ki economic conditions mein improvement nazar aata hai ya Fed apni policy mein pivot karta hai, toh AUD/USD mein rally dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Aur agar U.S. inflation moderate hona shuru hota hai, toh Federal Reserve apne aggressive rate stance ko soften kar sakti hai, jo AUD par se kuch pressure kam kar sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Kia Australian Dollar America China Trade War mein Apne Aapko Ballance kar Payega?

Australia aik mushkil situation mein hai: US iska sab se aham military partner hai, jab ke China uska sab se bara consumer market hai. Dono ke darmiyan trading war AUDUSD ke liye faidamand nahi hogi.

Aham Points:

• Trump ka trade retreat Australian dollar ke liye boost provide karta hai.
• Ek potential trade war pehle jitni serious ho sakti thi, utni nahi hogi.
• Monetary policy mein divergence Australian dollar ko support karta hai.
• Agar AUD/USD 0.662 se neeche girta hai, toh yeh ek selling opportunity ka signal hai.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar

“Buy the rumor, sell the fact.” Ye purani principle ne Trump Trade advocates ke high expectations par thanda pani daal diya hai. Jab ke Donald Trump ne presidential election jeet li hai, lekin abhi tak White House mein wapas nahi aaye, aur koi guarantee nahi hai ke wo apne sare campaign promises poore karenge. Affected currencies stabilize ho chuki hain aur kuch rebound bhi hui hain. Ek primary beneficiary Australian dollar raha hai: AUDUSD ne apna aik saal ka behtareen daily performance mark kiya hai.

Donald Trump ne China se imports par 60% tariffs aur baqi duniya par 20% import tariffs ki baat ki thi. Ye average tariff ko 20% se ooper utha dega, jo ke World War II ke baad pehli dafa itna high hoga. Lekin, apni pehli term ke dauraan, Republican ne aksar carrot-and-stick policy use ki thi, tariff concerns ko istemal karke countries ko trade agreements US ke favor mein revise karne par majboor kiya. Kya wo ab bhi yehi rasta apnaenge? Agar aisa hota hai, tou AUDUSD ka 6% ka drop September ke high se November ke bottom tak ziyada lagta hai.

China ka response bohot aham hai. Beijing ab trade war ke liye pehle se zyada prepared hai. Pehle ke muqablay mein, China ka trade balance bohot zyada kharab nahi hua, balke surplus bhi barh gaya hai. China ke kuch countermeasures mein critical raw materials ke exports par control, agricultural imports par retaliatory tariffs aur American companies par pressure shamil hain.

Australia, chhe saal pehle ki tarah, is situation ka hostage ban sakta hai. United States iska sab se bara military partner hai jab ke China iska sab se bara trade partner hai. Dono taraf balance karna khatarnaak ho sakta hai.

Reserve Bank ke mutabiq, trade war ka resumption Green Continent ke liye bohot negative hoga. RBA ka kehna hai ke Beijing fiscal stimulus measures ko implement karne mein jaldi nahi karega, yeh dekhne ke liye ke Trump ke pre-election promises mein se kaun sach hain aur kaun nahi. Reuters ke ek insider ke mutabiq, $1.4 trillion ke economic support ki information agle kuch dinon mein confirm ho sakti hai, aur Australia bhi is pie ka kuch hissa hasil kar sakta hai.

AUDUSD ko support sirf Trump trade retreat aur yeh samajh se nahi mil raha ke trade war utna khofnak nahi ho sakta jitna pehle samjha gaya, balke RBA aur doosri central banks ke darmiyan monetary policy ke divergence se bhi mil raha hai. November meeting mein, Reserve Bank of Australia ne key rate ko 4.35% par rakha aur na cut ka aur na hike ka possibility ko rule out kiya. Federal Reserve aur Bank of England ne borrowing costs mein 25-basis point cut kiya aur Riksbank ne 50-basis point cut kiya, lekin RBA ab bhi is race mein odd one out hai, jo ke Aussie ko strengthen karne lagta hai.

AUD/USD Price Update

AUD/USD currency pair abhi 0.65798 level par hai aur trend mein bearish tone nazar aa rahi hai. Recent sessions mein, market cautiously move hui hai, jo ke is range mein consolidation ke signs dikhati hai. Australian dollar, jo ke commodity prices aur risk sentiment se bohot mutasir hota hai, global factors ki wajah se pressure mein hai, jese ke global growth concerns aur U.S. dollar ki strength jo ke aksar ek safe haven ban jata hai jab investors economic challenges anticipate karte hain.

AUD ki bearish movement ki aik wajah U.S. Federal Reserve ka tightening stance bhi ho sakta hai. Multi-decade high interest rates ke sath, USD abhi bhi strong hai, jo doosri currencies ko, jin mein AUD bhi shamil hai, neeche rakhta hai. Yeh environment AUD ke liye typically unfavorable hota hai kyun ke investors safer, higher-yielding assets jo ke USD mein denominated hain, ko pasand karte hain. Saath hi, China ki economy jo ke Australia ka sab se bara trading partner hai, mein uncertainty ne bhi AUD par additional downward pressure dala hai. China ke economy mein demand slow hone ke koi bhi indications, khaaskar iron ore jese sectors mein (Australia ka bara export), Aussie dollar ko weaken kar dete hain.

Is current bearish trend ke bawajood, AUD/USD pair mein significant movement ka potential hai agle kuch dinon mein, khaaskar agar US ya China ke economic outlook mein koi major developments hoti hain. Misal ke tor par, agar US se weaker-than-expected economic data release hoti hai, ya agar Federal Reserve rate hikes ko halt karne ka signal dete hain, toh USD weak ho sakta hai, jo AUD ko recover hone de sakta hai. Doosri taraf, agar Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aik zyada dovish approach adopt karta hai ya expected interest rate hikes ko deliver nahi karta, toh ye AUD par further downward pressure layega.

Risk sentiment mein global changes bhi ek aur possible catalyst ho sakti hain. AUD, jo ek “risk-on” currency samjha jata hai, aksar rally karta hai jab investors optimistic feel karte hain. China mein economic conditions mein improvement ke koi bhi signs, ya Fed ke policy mein koi pivot ke signs, AUD/USD mein rally la sakte hain. Saath hi, agar U.S. inflation moderate hona shuru hoti hai, tou Federal Reserve apne aggressive rate stance ko ease kar sakta hai, jo USD se kuch pressure hata dega.

In conclusion, jab ke AUD/USD abhi bearish phase mein hai, mukhtalif factors—including U.S. monetary policy, China's economic performance, aur global risk sentiment—ek notable movement ko drive kar sakte hain jald hi. Traders ko advice hai ke wo in indicators ko closely monitor karein kyun ke koi bhi shift significant price action result mein la sakti hai.



AUDUSD pair kal, Friday, abhi bhi sellers ke control mein thi jo trading mein dominate karte hue bullish buyers ke pace ko rok rahe hain aur resistance area 0.6688-0.6686 par strengthen ho gaye hain jo abhi tak bullish buyer pressure se penetrate nahi hua hai jisse ke price dubara sellers ke control mein aa gayi hai jo ke bearish pressure ko barha rahe hain aur price ko weak kar ke bearish direction mein le ja rahe hain.

Moving Average indicator ko daily time frame mein observe karte hue dekha gaya hai ke price ya candle buyer ke control mein hai, jo ke MA 100 Blue area 0.6692-0.6690 par penetrate nahi kar paayi jo ke seller ne maintain kiya hai, jisse price phir bearish turn ho gayi hai aur seller ne kamiyabi hasil ki hai price ko neeche le jaane mein, jo MA 200 Yellow area ke neeche penetrate karke 0.6630-0.6629 par strong bearish candlestick ke sath seller ka chance zyada kar raha hai ke price ko aur neeche le jaye AUDUSD pair ke demand support area ke agle target par 0.6521-0.6520 tak.

Trading agle Monday ko ziada mumkin hai ke sellers dominate karein jo price ko aur bearish direction mein le jaayein, apna sab se kareebi target buyers support area 0.6555-0.6554 par test karte hue. Agar bearish pressure support area ke neeche penetrate karne mein kamiyab hota hai, tou AUDUSD pair ki price aur neeche weaken karegi, agle target demand support area 0.6517-0.6515 par pohanchte hue.

AUD/USD ka Technical Analysis

Hello doston, kaise hain aap? Australian dollar apni pichli trading week ke muqablay mein apni girawat ko continue rakhta hai, aur kuch nuksan bhi dekhne ko mila hai. Jab price 0.6635 level ke upar jane ki koshish kar raha tha, toh wo sustain nahi kar paaya aur wapas 0.6573 level ke neeche chala gaya, jahan pe usay support mila. Is ke sath hi, ye price ko apne target area tak pohanchne ka moka de gaya, jo pehle ke review ke expectations ke mutabiq tha. Is dauran, price chart abhi bhi super-trend red zone mein hai, jo ye dikhata hai ke sellers ka control hai.

Technical taur pe, price 200 simple moving average se reject hua. Price apne resistance level ko todne ki koshish ki, lekin wo fail ho gaya, kyun ke FOMC ka effect complete ho chuka tha jab ye news release hui. Agle hafta, hum ek sharp rise dekh sakte hain jo resistance level ko todne ki koshish karega, aur stochastic oscillator ke neeche jaane par bullishness ka signal milega. Neeche diye gaye chart ko dekhein:




Chart:

Is waqt pair weekly lows ke kareeb trade kar raha hai aur kaafi nuksan uthaya hai. Key resistance area abhi tak test nahi hua, isliye wo apni integrity maintain kar raha hai, aur pehle ka downward vector abhi bhi relevant hai. Agar is situation ka continuation chahiye ho, toh ek local correction ki zarurat ho sakti hai jisse 0.6573 level ko dobara test kiya ja sake, jo abhi main resistance zone ke bilkul kareeb hai. Agar price is area se rebound karta hai, toh pair phir se neeche jaane ki koshish karega, jiska target 0.6506 aur 0.6433 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai.

Agar resistance break hota hai aur price 0.6635 pivot level ko todta hai, toh is current situation ko cancel karne ka signal milega.

AUD/USD Price Update

AUD/USD ka jo pair tha, Wednesday ko abhi bhi sellers ke control mein tha, jo zyada dominate ho kar market mein enter hue aur 0.6645-0.6643 ke resistance area ko maintain karke price ko puri tarah apne control mein kar liya. Iske baad seller ne bohot strong bearish pressure dala, jiske natije mein price 100 se zyada pips neeche gir gaya.

Agar Moving Average indicator ko Daily time frame pe dekha jaye, to yeh nazar aata hai ke price ya candle seller ke control mein hai. Seller ne price ko bearish direction mein le jaakar Yellow MA 200 area (0.6631-0.6630) se door kar diya. Iske baad ek bohot strong bearish candlestick bani, jo yeh dikhati hai ke AUD/USD market abhi bhi strong bearish trend mein hai. Agla bearish target 0.6518-0.6517 ke buyer demand support area ki taraf hai. Yeh area AUD/USD pair ki next movement ke liye kaafi crucial hoga. Agar buyers is area ko maintain kar lete hain, to bullish movement ka chance phir se open ho sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh area break ho jata hai, to price aur neeche gir sakta hai.

Thursday Asian Market Session Update

Thursday ko Asian market session mein seller apne bearish momentum ko maintain nahi kar paaye, kyunki wo 0.6520 ke buyer support area ko neeche nahi tod paaye, jo buyers ne maintain kar liya tha. Iske natije mein price bullish ho gaya aur buyers ka target tha price ko upar le jaake 0.6642-0.6645 ke resistance area ko test karna. Agar yeh area break ho jata hai, to AUD/USD ka price aur bhi upar ja sakta hai, aur agla target 0.6664-0.6665 ke strong seller supply resistance area ki taraf hoga.




Conclusion:

- Buy Option: Agar price seller ke resistance area ko break karta hai, to aap pending buy-stop order 0.6644-0.6645 ke price par laga sakte hain, jiska TP (take profit) target 0.6664-0.6665 hoga.

- Sell Option: Agar price buyer ke support area ko break karta hai, to aap pending sell-stop order 0.6570-0.6568 ke price par laga sakte hain, jiska TP target 0.6540-0.6538 hoga.

Technical Analysis - AUD/USD Daily

Peter, shab bakhair! Kal, 0.6637 ka control level AUD/USD ka upar ka aik powerful level tha.
Hello, dost! US election khatam ho gaya, har currency market mein upar ja rahi hai, lekin hamara AUD/USD koi dhyan nahi de raha. Kal unhon ne 120 points ki loss li. Ab sawal yeh hai ke agay kya hoga? Sach kahoon toh, aaj sabse pehle yeh device nahi dekha. Aur har front par lagbhag wahi dekh raha hoon: ek taraf yeh decline nahi hui hai – decline ka rujhan abhi bhi jari hai, aur upar ki taraf barhne ki ichha bhi hai. Toh, wave technique aur indicator readings ke mutabiq, yeh hai jo main daily chart par dekh raha hoon:




MA100 jo ke floor ke parallel kaam kar raha hai – yeh device ke flat mode ko dikhata hai jo is hafte ke dauran hai.
MA18, MA100 ko cross kar sakta hai upar aur neeche, aur 40 degree ke trend angle ke sath, yeh tape ko south ki taraf kheench sakta hai – lekin abhi bhi bullish hai. Yeh paaya gaya ke reduction ke chances kaafi zyada hain. Ab MA18 ne pehla resistance set kiya hai south ki taraf kaam karne ke liye – yeh 0.6610 level par hai.
Nichimoku cloud kaafi active aur green hai, jo ascension ka indication deta hai. Forecast ke context mein, yeh bearish hai, 30 degree ke trend angle par, aur tapes ko neeche kheench raha hai.
Main moving average reading ke mutabiq, jo ke south ki taraf open hai, yeh signal de raha hai ke yeh 0.6365 level tak gir sakta hai, jo ke "head and shoulders" figure ka base hai. Lekin lightweight moving average ka bundle neeche se upar khinch raha hai – correction ke liye.

**I/USD Price Action*

Is waqt hum AUD/USD currency pair ke current price behavior ka jaiza le rahe hain. AUD/USD pair mein ek wazeh downtrend hai, jo 0.6944 ke support level se shuru hua. Maine bechne ke liye kuch signals shanakht kiye hain, jo main istemal karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Filhal, envelopes aur alligator lines dono neeche ki taraf point kar rahe hain, jo bearish outlook ko confirm karte hain. Umeed hai ke price girawat 0.6624 ke platform level se guzregi. Yahan par buyers ke stop-loss orders ki khaas liquidity maujood hai, jo long positions mein hain aur apne risks ko manage kar rahe hain. Ye ghalat signals is wajah se hain ke price aksar ek range mein move kar raha hai.
Pichla break 0.67249 ke support ka Tuesday ko hua, jisme ek confirmed breakout ke baad rebound dekha gaya. Agla sales target ab 0.66607 ke support level par hai.

Hourly chart par, price ek descending channel mein trend kar raha hai. Halankeh pair gir raha hai, lekin ab tak lower boundary tak nahi pohancha. Yeh neeche ki taraf chalna jaari rakhni chahiye jab tak yeh lower boundary par nahi aata, jo ke lagbhag 0.6688 level par hai. Is point tak pahunchne ke baad, ek reversal ho sakta hai, jo price ko channel ki upper boundary ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jo shayad 0.6721 ke aas-paas ho.

Total paanch signals the—teen ghalat the, jabke do sahi the. In mein se ek signal Tuesday ko kaam kiya, lekin Wednesday ko ek ghalat signal aaya. Thursday ko teen aur signals aaye, jisme se do bhi ghalat the. Friday ko ek signal kaam kiya, aur Monday girawat ke sath shuru hua, jo 0.67249 ke support level ko todne ki taraf le gaya. Is dauran ek ghalat sell signal aur ek ghalat buy signal dekhe gaye. Tuesday ko phir se ek ghalat buy signal aaya.AUD/USD Price Action
Is waqt hum AUD/USD currency pair ke current price behavior ka jaiza le rahe hain. AUD/USD pair mein ek wazeh downtrend hai, jo 0.6944 ke support level se shuru hua. Maine bechne ke liye kuch signals shanakht kiye hain, jo main istemal karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Filhal, envelopes aur alligator lines dono neeche ki taraf point kar rahe hain, jo bearish outlook ko confirm karte hain. Umeed hai ke price girawat 0.6624 ke platform level se guzregi. Yahan par buyers ke stop-loss orders ki khaas liquidity maujood hai, jo long positions mein hain aur apne risks ko manage kar rahe hain. Ye ghalat signals is wajah se hain ke price aksar ek range mein move kar raha hai.

Pichla break 0.67249 ke support ka Tuesday ko hua, jisme ek confirmed breakout ke baad rebound dekha gaya. Agla sales target ab 0.66607 ke support level par hai.

Hourly chart par, price ek descending channel mein trend kar raha hai. Halankeh pair gir raha hai, lekin ab tak lower boundary tak nahi pohancha. Yeh neeche ki taraf chalna jaari rakhni chahiye jab tak yeh lower boundary par nahi aata, jo ke lagbhag 0.6688 level par hai. Is point tak pahunchne ke baad, ek reversal ho sakta hai, jo price ko channel ki upper boundary ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jo shayad 0.6721 ke aas-paas ho.

Total paanch signals the—teen ghalat the, jabke do sahi the. In mein se ek signal Tuesday ko kaam kiya, lekin Wednesday ko ek ghalat signal aaya. Thursday ko teen aur signals aaye, jisme se do bhi ghalat the. Friday ko ek signal kaam kiya, aur Monday girawat ke sath shuru hua, jo 0.67249 ke support level ko todne ki taraf le gaya. Is dauran ek ghalat sell signal aur ek ghalat buy signal dekhe gaye. Tuesday ko phir se ek ghalat buy signal ha

AUD/USD Price Action Analysis

AUD/USD ka yeh chart humein market ki current situation aur trading ke liye kuch indicators ke zariye insights deta hai. Iss chart mein kuch important cheezen dekhne layak hain jo trading ke faislay mein madadgar ho sakti hain. Is chart par do important moving averages dikhayi de rahi hain — ek yellow aur ek white line. Yellow line 200-period moving average ko represent karti hai, jabke white line 50-period moving average hai. Filhal price in dono moving averages ke neeche trade ho raha hai, jo bearish trend ko indicate karta hai. Yeh iska matlab hai ke market mein downward momentum zyada hai aur price neeche ja sakti hai. Chart par aik strong support level 0.65833 par hai, jahan price abhi tak hold kar rahi hai. Yeh level important hai, kyunki agar price is level ke neeche close karti hai, toh further bearish movement aasakti hai. Agar price is level par hold karti hai ya bounce karti hai, toh market mein temporary bullish movement ya rebound dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Chart ke neeche RSI indicator hai, jo overbought aur oversold zones ko dikhata hai. Filhal RSI ka value 44.25 hai, jo neither overbought hai (70+) aur na hi oversold (30-) ke zone mein hai. Yeh mid-range mein trading ko indicate kar raha hai, jo ke sideways ya consolidation ka sign ho sakta hai. Matlab abhi market mein koi strong trend establish nahi hua hai, lekin ye bhi indicate karta hai ke selling pressure bhi kuch limit par hai. OsMA indicator neeche ke panel mein dikhayi de raha hai. Negative OsMA bars humein yeh bata rahi hain ke bearish momentum ziada hai aur buyers abhi kamzor hain. Yeh indicator bhi market ke downward trend ko support karta hai. Iss analysis ke mutabiq, agar price 0.65833 ke support level ko break karti hai, toh yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai, aur price further neeche ja sakti hai. Wahi agar yeh level hold karta hai, toh temporary rebound ka chance hai jahan short-term buy kiya ja sakta hai. Lekin yeh zaroori hai ke hamesha risk management ko madde nazar rakha jaye aur stop loss set kiya jaye taake loss se bacha ja sake.

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis


AUD/USD pair ne apni session ki shuruat strong upward momentum ke saath ki, price 0.6612 tak pohanch gayi aur apne pehle closing level se 40 pips se zyada ka faida diya. Yeh positive movement US Dollar Index ke girne ki wajah se thi, jisne Australian Dollar ko advantage diya. Market ka focus is waqt US ke October ke Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report par hai, jo expect ki gayi jobs ki aankron se kafi kam thi, sirf 12,000 jobs added, jo forecast ke kaafi neeche tha. Is data ne yeh ummed jagayi hai ke Federal Reserve apni monetary policy ko thoda accommodative bana sakta hai, aur November aur December mein rate cuts ka potential nazar aa raha hai.

Dusri taraf, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne apni policy rate ko 4.35% par stable rakha hai, global uncertainties ke bawajood economic resilience par focus karte hue. RBA ki consistent approach AUD ki position ko support de rahi hai. Lekin, upcoming US presidential election jese risk factors hain, jo investors ko US dollar ki taraf attract kar sakte hain, aur isse short term mein AUD ke further gains limit ho sakte hain.

Technical Analysis

Technical terms mein, AUD/USD ka 0.6612 se upar jana momentum shift ko reflect karta hai, jahan price ne 34-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA-34) ko finally break kiya. Yeh note karne wali baat hai kyunki pichlay hafte ki consolidation ne pair ko is level ke neeche rakha tha, lekin aaj ki upward move ne isse zyada stable ground par la diya hai. Agar pair EMA-34 ke upar stable rehta hai, to yeh buying interest ka signal de sakta hai, kyunki technical indicators, jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI), bullish momentum ko suggest karte hain.


Ek key resistance level 0.6620 par hoga jo is strength ko test karega, aur agar safe-haven flows US dollar ko strengthen karte hain risk sentiment ke badhne ki wajah se, to price mein pullback bhi ho sakta hai. Lekin, agar EMA-34 ke upar stability continue rehti hai, to yeh AUD/USD mein further gains ko support de sakta hai.



Upcoming Move & Trading Strategy

Current setup ko dekhte hue, traders buy strategy consider kar sakte hain agar AUD/USD apni position EMA-34 ke upar maintain karta hai aur 0.6620 resistance ko break karta hai. Target levels 0.6650 tak rakhein aur stop-loss EMA-34 ke neeche set karein, jisse upside opportunity milegi aur downside risk minimize hoga. Agar pair stability lose karta hai aur 0.6580 ke neeche girta hai, to short positions favorable ho sakti hain, jiska target 0.6550 ke support tak ho sakta hai. Fed aur RBA ke developments, aur US election ke market reactions par nazar rakhna zaroori hoga taake AUD/USD momentum mein aane wale changes ko effectively navigate kiya ja

Technical Analysis - AUD/USD Daily

Peter, shab bakhair! Kal, 0.6637 ka control level AUD/USD ka upar ka aik strong level tha.
Hello dost! US election khatam ho gaya, har currency market mein upar ja rahi hai, lekin hamara AUD/USD koi khaas reaction nahi de raha. Kal unhone 120 points ki loss li. Ab sawal yeh hai ke agay kya hoga? Sach kehna toh, aaj tak maine yeh device properly analyze nahi kiya. Har angle se lagbhag wahi situation nazar aa rahi hai: ek taraf decline nahi hui – decline ka trend abhi bhi chal raha hai, aur upar jaane ki ichha bhi hai. Toh, wave technique aur indicator readings ke hisaab se, yeh hai jo main daily chart par dekh raha hoon:




MA100 jo ke floor ke parallel kaam kar raha hai – yeh device ke flat mode ko show karta hai jo is hafte ke dauran hai.
MA18, MA100 ko cross kar sakta hai upar aur neeche, aur 40 degree ke trend angle ke sath, yeh price ko south ki taraf kheench sakta hai – lekin abhi bhi bullish hai. Yeh dekha gaya hai ke downward movement ke chances kaafi zyada hain. Ab MA18 ne pehla resistance set kiya hai south ki taraf, jo 0.6610 level par hai.
Nihon Kumo cloud kaafi active aur green hai, jo uptrend ki taraf indication deta hai. Forecast ke hawale se, yeh bearish hai, 30 degree ke trend angle par, aur price ko neeche kheench raha hai.
Main moving average reading ke mutabiq, jo ke south ki taraf open hai, yeh signal de raha hai ke yeh 0.6365 level tak gir sakta hai, jo ke "head and shoulders" figure ka base hai. Lekin lightweight moving averages neeche se upar ki taraf move kar rahe hain – jo correction ka signal hai.

RBA Ne Interest Rates Kam Nahi Karne Ka Faisla Kiya, Takay Inflation Apni Target Range Mein Wapas Aa Jaye

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ka kehna hai ke woh tab tak interest rates nahi kam karega jab tak inflation apni target range, jo ke 2-3%, mein wapas nahi aa jata. Labor market abhi bhi tight hai, employment kaafi achi tarah grow kar rahi hai, aur job vacancies bhi barh rahi hain. Australian bond futures naye low par gir gaye hain, jab ke AUD/USD ko US yield differentials ke narrowing hone se support mil raha hai.

Overview
RBA ka kehna hai ke woh interest rates tab tak nahi kam karega jab tak woh puri tarah confident nahi ho jata ke inflation 2-3% ke target range ke beech wapas aa jayega. Iske liye kaafi reasons hain, jo yeh dikhate hain ke woh kuch bhi control nahi kar sakta ya kuch bhi rule out nahi kar raha.

RBA ki November ki monetary policy statement ka hawkish tone market ko surprise kar gaya, aur iski wajah se markets ne rate cut ki expectations ko aur zyada ignore kar diya. Australian government bond futures ne naye low hit kiye, aur iske saath Chinese equity markets mein gains ne AUD/USD ko upar push kiya. RBA ka hawkish tone labor market ki strength ke wajah se tha.

RBA Ka Hawkish Tone
RBA ka latest statement un logon ke liye khaufnaak news tha jo rate cut ki umeed laga rahe the, jisme pehle hissa ye tha: "core inflation abhi bhi bohot zyada hai."

Unhone kaha ke "aggregate demand economy ki supply capacity se upar hai," matlab demand supply se zyada hai, chahe demand kam ho rahi ho. Iska matlab yeh tha ke demand ka growth abhi bhi ho sakta hai, aur unhone "real disposable income mein girawat" ka bhi zikar kiya, jo pehle ek limiting factor tha. Yeh bhi bataya gaya ke ab yeh factor itna important nahi raha.

Labor market ke hawale se bhi RBA ka tone hawkish tha. Unhone kaha ke labor market ki conditions abhi bhi "tight" hain, employment "strongly grow ho raha hai" aur cyclical measures jaise youth unemployment aur underemployment mein "ease" aayi hai.

Despite record participation levels, unhone kaha ke "vacancies ab bhi high hain." Yeh language ek central bank ki nahi ho sakti jo rate cuts ke liye prepare ho rahi ho, khaas taur par jab core inflation target se kaafi upar hai aur productivity growth uncertain hai.

Labor Market Ki Strength Aur Inflation Ka Issue
Jab tak labor market ki conditions strong hain, RBA ko yeh confidence nahi hai ke inflation sustainable tor par apni target range mein wapas aayega. Unhone kaha ke "monetary policy ka lagged effect abhi unclear hai, aur kaise firms ke pricing decisions aur wages slow growth aur weak productivity results ko handle karenge, yeh bhi uncertain hai."

In uncertainties ke sath, aur core inflation ko 2026 ke end tak 2.5% tak na pahuchne ki umeed ke sath, RBA ne dobara warning di ke woh "inflation risks ke hawale se vigilant hai aur... kuch bhi rule in ya out nahi kar raha."




RBA Ka Forecast: Rates Zyada Lambe Waqt Tak High Rahenge
RBA ke latest forecasts ko dekhen toh, unhone GDP growth aur core inflation forecast mein thodi si downward revisions ki hain, lekin unemployment mein thodi si upward revision ki hai. Yeh sab changes mainly domestic rate valuations mein shift ko reflect karte hain jo pichlay teen mahino mein hui hai.

In differences ka asal reason yeh hai ke expectation hai ke cash rate zyada lambe waqt tak high rahega.

AUD/USD Price Action Forecast

AUD/USD ke bulls apni pehli losses ko recover karne ki koshish kar rahe hain, jo market mein momentum ke shift ko indicate karta hai jab market recovery ka attempt kar raha hai. Aakhri kuch waqt se market sentiment bears ke favor mein tha, jiski wajah se prices neeche gir gayi thi. Ab jab AUD/USD reversal ka signal de raha hai, toh investors ko market ki direction sahi tareeqe se samajhna zaroori hai. Yeh shift yeh dikhata hai ke indicators aur trends ko monitor karna kitna zaroori hai, kyunki current price action ke hisaab se bullish scenario abhi bhi ban raha hai. Aise environment mein woh traders faida utha sakte hain jo in changes ko identify kar ke apne strategies adapt karte hain.

AUD/USD ke investors professional trading tools ka istemal karke market sentiment ko samajh sakte hain aur apne decision-making ko behtar bana sakte hain. Tools jaise moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), aur dusre oscillators investors ko help karte hain yeh jaanchne mein ke market overbought ya oversold zone mein hai ya nahi.

Filhal, aisa lagta hai ke market oversold support level se reverse ho gaya hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke buyers market mein enter kar chuke hain, aur yeh ek support level establish ho sakta hai jahan se bulls prices ko upar push kar sakte hain. Bearish pressure ke dominations ke baad, market ne ek aisa level find kiya hai jahan buyers control lena chaah rahe hain, jo bullish momentum ke strong hone ki likelihood ko barhata hai.

Sach kahen toh, lagta hai ke AUD/USD ke bulls market mein raheinge, jab ke bears ko high ground dobara hasil karna mushkil hoga jab price action oversold conditions se recover ho rahi hai. Jab investors market direction ko track karenge, unko economic aur geopolitical developments par bhi nazar rakhni chahiye jo AUD ya USD par asar dal sakti hain.




Bulls ka market mein wapis aana ek potential trend reversal ko signal karta hai aur investors ko ek opportunity deta hai jisme woh aise trading strategies consider kar sakte hain jo bullish sentiment par capitalize kar sakein, aur yeh expectation rakhte hue ke uptrend continue hoga, jis se AUD/USD ki gains ko support milega, aur bears ko apni dominance dobara establish karne ka kam waqt milega.