ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AUDUSD ke Ahem Points:

AUDUSD ek acha currency pair hai jo traders ko achi profits kamaane ka moka deta hai. Pichlay kuch hafton mein, Australian Dollar (AUD) ne United States Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein apni qouwat barhai hai, jo un logon ke liye moka hai jo market ko actively monitor kar rahe hain. AUD ki is taqat barhane ka sabab Australia ki mazboot economic indicators hain, jismein achi commodity exports aur zaroori goods ki demand mein izafa shamil hai. Yeh zaroori hai ke yeh note kiya jaye ke jahan Australian Dollar ka momentum barh raha hai, wahin US Dollar bhi apni taqat wapis hasil kar raha hai, khaas tor par United States se aane wale economic news ke wajah se. Federal Reserve ke policy changes, interest rate decisions, aur strong US economic reports USD ko faida pohanchane ke liye mumkin hain, jo AUDUSD market mein volatility laa sakte hain. Is liye, broader market environment ko samajhna bohot zaroori hai. Short-term fluctuations long-term traders ke liye itna faida nahi de sakti, is liye baray time frames par focus karna behtareen hai. Weekly ya daily charts ka istemal karke traders apne overall trend ko behtar samajh sakte hain aur minute-by-minute price action ke noise se bach sakte hain. Yeh time frames zyada reliable signals dete hain, khaas tor par jab unhe technical indicators jaise moving averages, support aur resistance levels, aur Fibonacci retracements ke sath combine kiya jaye, jo key entry aur exit points identify karne mein madad karte hain.



Agar hum broad view mein dekhein, to AUDUSD market traders ke liye ek exciting opportunity provide karta hai, khaas tor par un logon ke liye jo long-term strategies par focus karte hain. Australia aur United States ke economic events se updated reh kar, large time frames ka analysis karke, aur strong money management practices ko apply karke, hum apne chances of success ko maximize kar sakte hain. Mujhe umeed hai ke sabr aur discipline ke sath, AUDUSD market traders ke liye profitable opportunities deta rahega.

Technical Analysis

Australian Dollar (AUD) ne US presidential election ke results ke liye traders ke cautious hone ke bawajood apni qeemat mein girawat dekhi hai. Lekin, Aussie Dollar ko momentum wapis mil sakta hai kyun ke RBA Governor Michele Bullock ne Tuesday ko apni hawkish stance ko dobara se confirm kiya hai.

Georgia ke exit polls ke mutabiq, Trump ne Harris par 10% ka lead bana liya hai, jab ke votes ka ek percent se kam hisa count kiya gaya hai.

Australian Dollar (AUD) ne apni recent gains ko Wednesday ko US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein retrace kiya hai, kyun ke market mein US presidential election ke results ki anticipation badh gayi hai. Traders US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke Thursday ko hone wale policy announcement ke liye bhi tayar ho rahe hain.

Aussie Dollar us waqt mazid taqatwar ho gaya jab Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne Tuesday ko Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya, jo ke unka aathwa consecutive pause hai. RBA Governor Michele Bullock ne hawkish stance ko dobara se barqarar rakhte hue, persistent inflation risks aur mazboot labor market ke madde nazar restrictive monetary policy ki zaroorat par zor diya.

Iske alawa, Australia ke latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ne October mein private sector ke activity mein positive shift dikhaya. Services sector mein growth ne manufacturing ke continued decline ko offset kar diya.



AUD/USD pair Wednesday ko 0.6590 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, aur daily chart par technical indicators bearish trend ke continuation ka signal de rahe hain. Pair ne nine- aur 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) ke neeche gir gaya hai, jo downward momentum ka indication hai. Iske alawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi 50 ke neeche hai, jo bearish outlook ko aur mazboot karta hai.

AUD/USD pair ke liye immediate support 0.6536 par hai, jo ke three-month low hai. Agar is level se neeche break hota hai, to pair critical psychological support 0.6500 ki taraf jaa sakta hai.

Upar ki taraf, pair ko nine-day EMA par 0.6603 par resistance ka samna ho sakta hai, aur 14-day EMA par additional resistance 0.6620 par hai. Agar yeh levels break hote hain, to strengthening momentum ka signal mil sakta hai, jo ke 0.6700 ke key psychological level tak jaa sakta hai.

Analisa Teknikal AUDUSD 6 November 2024

Forex Analysis - Technically, mujhe lagta hai ke AUDUSD pair abhi ek aise price position par hai jo abhi bhi entry point ke liye kaafi achi hai.

Chaliye, pehle AUDUSD pair ke 1 Hour Time Frame ka chart dekhte hain, phir hum analysis karte hain:

Price Action analysis (Trader Pressure) ka istemal karte hue, market trend ko dekhein, to lagta hai ke AUDUSD abhi bhi Bullish / Uptrend mein hai, lekin humein trend reversal ka bhi andaza lagana hoga agar price Support area ko break kare aur price consolidation ho.

Candle history ko dekhte hue, Buy entry ke liye opportunities dhoondhi ja sakti hain, lekin zyada objective hone ke liye, main buy aur sell entries ka analysis de raha hoon.

Agar hum chart image ko dekhein, to Buyer pressure (Green candle ki length) dheere dheere price ko barhata hai, lekin Seller pressure (Red candle ki length) usay counter nahi kar paata aur ek Higher Low banata hai.

Isse yeh indicate hota hai ke Buyers abhi bhi kuch price levels ki formation par dominate kar rahe hain. Lekin, is AUDUSD pair mein abhi bhi Sell opportunities mil sakti hain.

Picture mein, maine Resistance area ko price ke upar wali line ke through determine kiya hai (0.6617 – 0.6603), aur Support area ko price ke neeche wali do lines ke zariye dekha hai (0.6573 – 0.6562).

Niche mere entry setup options diye gaye hain, jo aap apne trading style ke mutabiq istemal kar sakte hain. Mere entry setup ka tareeqa breakout opportunity hai:

- Agar 1-hour candle close price Upper Resistance Line Limit (0.6617) ko break kar leta hai, to buy entry ke liye best position ke liye prepare ho jayein.
- Agar 1-hour candle close price Lower Support Area Limit (0.6562) ko break kar leta hai, to sell entry ke liye best position ke liye prepare ho jayein.

Cut Loss:
- Agar 1-hour candle close price buy entry ke liye resistance area ke neeche lower limit (<0.6603) ho, to cut loss.
- Agar sell entry ke liye 1-hour candle close price support area ke upper limit ke upar (>0.6573) ho, to cut loss. Aur risk ratio minimum 1:1 rakhein.





Pullback Setup for SELL Position:
- Pullback area Resistance area ke aas-paas hoga. Agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area mein ho, to SELL position le sakte hain. Aur agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area ke upper limit (> 0.6617) ke upar ho, to cut loss karein. Minimum risk ratio 1:1 rakhein apne trading method ke mutabiq.

Pullback Setup for BUY Position:
- Pullback area Support area ke aas-paas hoga. Agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area mein ho, to BUY position le sakte hain. Aur agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area ke lower limit (<0.6562) ke neeche ho, to cut loss karein. Minimum risk ratio 1:1 rakhein apne trading method ke mutabiq.

Hamesha har entry mein achi money management ka istemal karein taake trading ka continuity healthy rahe, aur Fake Breakout Candles se bachne ke liye alert rahein.

AUD/USD Currency Pair: Current Bearish Trend and Future Outlook

AUD/USD currency pair abhi 0.66090 par trade kar raha hai, aur ek bearish trend nazar aa raha hai. Australian dollar ka performance U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein kai economic factors se shape hota hai, jaise ke interest rate differences, economic data, aur geopolitical events. Haali mein, U.S. mein monetary policy ke tighten hone aur market concerns ne is downward trend mein contribute kiya hai, jiski wajah se AUD relatively weak ho gaya hai. Lekin, kuch aise indicators hain jo is pair ke liye ek badi movement ka signal de rahe hain.

Factors Driving the Current Bearish Trend

AUD/USD ka bearish trend mukhatar taur par U.S. dollar ki taqat ke wajah se hai, jo Federal Reserve ke tightening interest rate stance se supported hai. Fed ne inflation ko control karne ke liye hawkish tone apnayi hui hai, jiski wajah se dollar ko support mil raha hai aur doosre currencies par pressure ban raha hai, jismein AUD bhi shamil hai. Yeh hawkish approach Australian dollar ke liye ek headwind create kar rahi hai, khaas taur par jab ke Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne neutral ya dovish stance liya hai.

Iske alawa, China mein economic challenges, jo ke Australia ka sabse bara trading partner hai, bhi Australian dollar par additional pressure daal rahe hain. China ki economy mein slowing growth aur real estate market instability ne Australian exports ki demand ko kam kar diya hai, khaas taur par commodities jaise ke iron ore ki. Iska asar Australia ke trade balance par pad raha hai, jo AUD ke appreciation ko limit kar raha hai.

Expectations for Upcoming Movement

Bearish trend ke bawajood, AUD/USD pair agle kuch dinon mein significant movement dekh sakta hai. Market participants kuch key events ka intezaar kar rahe hain jo volatility ko increase kar sakte hain. U.S. ke economic data, jaise ke employment aur inflation reports, ya to Fed ke stance ko mazid mazboot kar sakte hain ya phir ek reassessment karne ka sabab ban sakte hain. Agar data suggest kare ke inflation mein kami aayi hai, to rate hikes ki umeed kam ho sakti hai, jo USD ko weaken karega aur AUD ko thoda relief de sakta hai.

Agar China ki economy mein recovery ke signs milte hain, to yeh Australian dollar ko positively affect kar sakta hai. Commodities ki demand mein behtari se Australia ki export economy ko faida hoga, aur AUD ko mazbooti mil sakti hai. Investors global economic policies mein kisi bhi change ya RBA ke rate policy mein unexpected moves par bhi speculate kar sakte hain, jo AUD/USD ki recovery ko mazid fuel kar sakta hai.




Technical Analysis Outlook

Technical analysis ke hawale se, AUD/USD ka current level 0.66090 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke recent trading sessions mein support levels ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh levels hold karte hain, to pair ek reversal ya consolidation dekh sakta hai, jo kisi significant upward movement se pehle ho sakta hai. Agar bearish momentum continue hota hai, to support level ke neeche breakdown se naye lows dekhne ko mil sakte hain, jo 0.6500 ya usse neeche bhi jaa sakte hain. Key technical indicators, jaise ke moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), aur Fibonacci retracement levels, ko closely monitor kiya ja sakta hai taake reversal ya continuation patterns ke signals mil sakein.

Conclusion

Jabke AUD/USD abhi bearish phase mein hai, economic aur technical factors yeh suggest karte hain ke ek badi movement near future mein ho sakti hai. Traders ko upcoming economic releases par nazar rakhni chahiye aur global financial sentiment, khaas taur par China aur U.S. ke hawale se, ko closely monitor karna chahiye. Agar kisi bhi country ki economic trajectory ya central bank policy mein koi shift hota hai, to yeh AUD/USD par significant asar daal sakta hai. Is liye, traders breakout opportunities ki talash kar sakte hain ya phir volatility ko manage karne ke liye hedging strategies apna sakte hain.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD

Good morning forum ke members aur guests. Umeed hai ke aap sab ka din acha guzar raha hoga. Hum abhi bhi achi profits kama sakte hain, khaas tor par AUD/USD mein, jo ek major pair hai aur iske daily users bhi kaafi zyada hain. Is waqt, AUD/USD 0.6578 par trade kar raha hai. Agar aap AUD/USD ka pattern dekhein, to mujhe lagta hai ke aaj yeh pair gir sakta hai aur kam se kam 0.6198 tak correction dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo demand area hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) ki reading abhi 46.8503 ke aas-paas hai.

Saath hi, AUD/USD bearish correction experience kar raha hai kyun ke Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator abhi bhi neeche ki taraf signal de raha hai. Agar hum 50-day moving average line aur 20-day moving average line ko dekhein, to price abhi 50-day moving average line ke neeche hai, jo ke 0.6810 par hai.




Resistance aur Support Levels:

AUD/USD par ek strong resistance level 0.7619 hai, jo ke pehla resistance level hai. Agar price aaj is horizontal resistance line ko break kar leta hai, to market apne uptrend ko continue karega aur agle resistance level 0.8718 ki taraf move karega. Uske baad, mujhe lagta hai ke buyers ki strength abhi bhi yeh potential rakhti hai ke price ko upar le jaa kar 0.9855 tak target kar sake, jo ke teesra resistance level hai.

Dusri taraf, humara focus immediate support level par hoga, jo ke 0.6198 hai. Jab tak market price is support ko break nahi karta, price next support level 0.5553 tak nahi gir sakta. Agar market doosre resistance level ko break kar leta hai, to yeh downward move ko continue karega aur teesre support level ki taraf jaa sakta hai.

Aap apne thoughts comment section mein share karein. Aap sab ka din shandar ho!

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Daily

Hello Victor! Mujhe pata hai ke aap forex market mein kaafi experienced hain, is liye aapki price behavior ke baare mein observations kaafi valuable hain! Kya aapko lagta hai ke unhone apna mind already badal diya hai?

Theory ke mutabiq, yeh hi kuch hua hai AUD/USD ke saath – uptrend ka mark tha aur ab woh khatam ho gaya hai. Mere technique ke mutabiq, yeh expect kiya gaya tha ke price ek kaafi impressive resistance level ko test karega – 0.6645, jo ke Ichimoku cloud ke lower band ke saath ban raha tha aur local MA18 ne bhi is level ko reach kiya. Ab, indicators ki readings ke mutabiq hum kya expect kar sakte hain:

- MA100 parallel space se move kar raha hai floor ke aas-paas, jo ke flat mode ka sign hai, aur yeh week ke liye kaafi signal de raha hai.
- MA18 ne MA100 ko upar se neeche cross kiya, jo ke ek "dead cross" hai – iska matlab sell signal. Yeh cross achi tarah se downward jaa raha hai, aur light ka movement 40-degree ke angle pe neeche ho raha hai, matlab practically vertically south.
- Ichimoku cloud abhi bullish colors mein hai, jo isko zyada pumped-up dikha raha hai. Forecast ke context mein, technical pattern phir se bearish ho raha hai aur MA100 ke neeche ribbon ko drag kar raha hai.




Lagta hai ke is pair mein kaafi bearish momentum hai. Shayad hum 0.6645 resistance ke aas-paas flatten ho jaayein, aur phir hum south ki taraf move karein.

Dusri taraf, dollar par bhi pressure hai lekin elections hain aur results kal aa sakte hain, toh market kaafi volatile ho sakti hai. Halanke, main khud long-term initiative par focus karna zyada pasand karunga. Is liye, agar hum phir se 0.6575 ke neeche aa jaate hain, toh main wahan buy karne ka sochunga.

AUD/USD pair abhi 0.65798 ke kareeb trade kar raha hai aur bearish trend dikhayi de raha hai jo recent sessions mein dheere dheere decline hua hai. Halanki movement slow hai, kuch signs yeh bhi dikhate hain ke agle kuch dino mein ek bara shift ho sakta hai.Yeh bearish trend kai external aur economic pressures ke wajah se hai. Global market volatility, commodity prices mein utar-chadhaav, aur Australia aur United States ke monetary policies ke farq ne AUD par downward pressure dala hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne relatively accommodative monetary stance rakhte hue interest rates ko low rakha hai, jab ke U.S. Federal Reserve ne inflation ko control karne ke liye interest rates mein increment kiya hai. Is divergence ne USD ko zyadatar investors ke liye attractive bana diya hai jo higher returns dekhte hain, jis se USD ki demand AUD ke muqablay mein barh gayi hai.Agle kuch dino mein key factor economic data releases se hoga jo U.S. aur Australia dono se ayenge. Employment reports, GDP growth, aur inflation data market sentiment ko kaafi influence karenge. Agar U.S. economic indicators strong aate hain, toh USD aur bhi strengthen ho sakta hai, jo AUD/USD pair ko neeche dhakel sakta hai. Wahiin agar Australian data surprise karta hai ya RBA tight monetary stance ka indication deta hai, toh AUD kuch strength regain kar sakta hai jo AUD/USD mein upward correction ka cause ban sakta hai.

Saath hi, global trade dynamics aur commodity prices jaise iron ore aur metals, jo Australia ke major exports hain, AUD/USD ko sway kar sakte hain. Agar commodity prices rally karti hain ya China ke economic outlook mein improvements aati hain (Australia aur China ka significant trade relation hai), toh AUD ko support mil sakta hai jo ek strong upward movement trigger kar sakta hai.Technical analysis bhi potential breakout ko indicate karta hai. Yeh pair filhal 0.6580 support level ke kareeb hai, jo is baat ka signal ho sakta hai ke koi substantial move hone wala hai. Jab currency pairs key support ya resistance levels ke kareeb hoti hain toh traders significant price action anticipate karte hain kyun ke ye psychological barriers hote hain. Agar price niche break karti hai toh bearish momentum reinforce ho sakta hai, jabke strong bounce ek bullish reversal ka signal ho sakta hai.AUD/USD bearish hai, lekin economic data releases, central bank policies, aur commodity price trends par nazar rakhna zaroori hai agle kuch dino mein. In areas mein koi bhi surprise anticipated big movement ko trigger kar sakta hai.

Yeh hai ek jaldi se ki gai AUD/USD pair ki analysis. Yeh pair filhal 0.6584 par trade ho raha hai. Yeh niche ki taraf momentum dikha raha hai aur lagta hai ke yeh girta rahega. Lekin yahan long positions kholne ka bhi ek moka hai, khaaskar support aur resistance levels ko dekh kar jo ke entry points identify karne mein madadgar ho sakte hain. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 43.8115 par hai, jo ke strong selling pressure ka ishara deta hai aur ye bhi ke market mazeed gir sakti hai. Saath hi, MACD bhi 0.0014 ke kareeb hai aur positive volume bar dikhata hai. 20-day aur 50-day EMA filhal current trend se ooper hain, jo ke trend mein kamzori ka ishara karte hain.Resistance levels par, sab se qareebi resistance 0.6682 par hai, aur agar pair yahan se upar ki taraf jata hai, to wo 0.6800 aur 0.6941 tak bhi ja sakta hai jo doosri aur teesri resistance levels hain. Support side par, pair ne filhal 0.6515 par thodi stability dikhayi hai. Agar girawat mazeed barh gai to agla support level 0.6121 par hai, aur uske baad agar selling aur mazeed barh gai to price 0.5654 support tak bhi pahunch sakti hai.
Weekly timeframe par dekhen to yeh bearish trend aur bhi wazeh ho jata hai. Price pichlay aik hafta se 100-day EMA ke niche hi hai, jo ke lambay waqt ke bearish trend ko support karta hai. Kuch hafte pehle price moving averages ke upar gaya tha lekin wo bullish move sirf temporary thi, aur ek strong bearish move ne dubara price ko in levels ke neeche le aya hai.End mein, price action ke indications yeh hain ke girawat mazeed barqarar reh sakti hai. Dekhte hain kis tarah se ye unfold hota hai aur aap bhi apne ideas share karein.

RBA Ne Interest Rates Kam Nahi Karne Ka Faisla Kiya, Takay Inflation Apni Target Range Mein Wapas Aa Jaye

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ka kehna hai ke woh tab tak interest rates nahi kam karega jab tak inflation apni target range, jo ke 2-3%, mein wapas nahi aa jata. Labor market abhi bhi tight hai, employment kaafi achi tarah grow kar rahi hai, aur job vacancies bhi barh rahi hain. Australian bond futures naye low par gir gaye hain, jab ke AUD/USD ko US yield differentials ke narrowing hone se support mil raha hai.

Overview
RBA ka kehna hai ke woh interest rates tab tak nahi kam karega jab tak woh puri tarah confident nahi ho jata ke inflation 2-3% ke target range ke beech wapas aa jayega. Iske liye kaafi reasons hain, jo yeh dikhate hain ke woh kuch bhi control nahi kar sakta ya kuch bhi rule out nahi kar raha.

RBA ki November ki monetary policy statement ka hawkish tone market ko surprise kar gaya, aur iski wajah se markets ne rate cut ki expectations ko aur zyada ignore kar diya. Australian government bond futures ne naye low hit kiye, aur iske saath Chinese equity markets mein gains ne AUD/USD ko upar push kiya. RBA ka hawkish tone labor market ki strength ke wajah se tha.

RBA Ka Hawkish Tone
RBA ka latest statement un logon ke liye khaufnaak news tha jo rate cut ki umeed laga rahe the, jisme pehle hissa ye tha: "core inflation abhi bhi bohot zyada hai."

Unhone kaha ke "aggregate demand economy ki supply capacity se upar hai," matlab demand supply se zyada hai, chahe demand kam ho rahi ho. Iska matlab yeh tha ke demand ka growth abhi bhi ho sakta hai, aur unhone "real disposable income mein girawat" ka bhi zikar kiya, jo pehle ek limiting factor tha. Yeh bhi bataya gaya ke ab yeh factor itna important nahi raha.

Labor market ke hawale se bhi RBA ka tone hawkish tha. Unhone kaha ke labor market ki conditions abhi bhi "tight" hain, employment "strongly grow ho raha hai" aur cyclical measures jaise youth unemployment aur underemployment mein "ease" aayi hai.

Despite record participation levels, unhone kaha ke "vacancies ab bhi high hain." Yeh language ek central bank ki nahi ho sakti jo rate cuts ke liye prepare ho rahi ho, khaas taur par jab core inflation target se kaafi upar hai aur productivity growth uncertain hai.

Labor Market Ki Strength Aur Inflation Ka Issue
Jab tak labor market ki conditions strong hain, RBA ko yeh confidence nahi hai ke inflation sustainable tor par apni target range mein wapas aayega. Unhone kaha ke "monetary policy ka lagged effect abhi unclear hai, aur kaise firms ke pricing decisions aur wages slow growth aur weak productivity results ko handle karenge, yeh bhi uncertain hai."

In uncertainties ke sath, aur core inflation ko 2026 ke end tak 2.5% tak na pahuchne ki umeed ke sath, RBA ne dobara warning di ke woh "inflation risks ke hawale se vigilant hai aur... kuch bhi rule in ya out nahi kar raha."

AUD/USD H1 Chart Analysis
AUD/USD ka 1-hour timeframe dekh rahe hain, jisme do technical indicators ka istemal hua hai: Parabolic SAR aur CCI (Commodity Channel Index). Yeh dono indicators hamen trend aur price momentum samajhne mein madad dete hain. Pehle hissa mein, chart par ek strong bullish trend dekha ja sakta hai jisme candles upar ki taraf move kar rahi hain aur Parabolic SAR ke dots price ke neeche hain. Parabolic SAR ke dots ke neeche hone ka matlab yeh hai ke market mein buyers ka control hai aur price upar ki taraf ja rahi hai. Lekin kuch dair ke baad, hum dekhte hain ke price ne sharp decline kiya aur Parabolic SAR ke dots ab price ke upar move kar rahe hain, jo ke bearish reversal ka signal hai. Iska matlab hai ke ab sellers market mein dominate kar rahe hain. Niche wale pane mein CCI indicator hai, jo ab -30 ke kareeb hai. Pehle, CCI ne 100 ke upar rise kiya jo overbought condition ko dikhata hai, lekin phir ye neeche aa gaya, jo selling pressure ko indicate karta hai. CCI ka -100 ke kareeb ana aur wahan se rebound hona suggest karta hai ke market mein selling pressure zyada hai lekin kuch point par price stabilize ho sakti hai. Agar CCI wapas positive zone mein jata hai, to yeh bullish reversal ka indication de sakta hai. Ab agar hum trading strategy dekhein, to agar price 0.6570 ka support level todti hai aur neeche close hoti hai, to selling opportunity ho sakti hai. Lekin agar price is level se bounce karti hai aur Parabolic SAR ke dots wapas neeche shift hote hain, to yeh buyers ke comeback ka signal hoga aur buying ka acha mauqa ho sakta hai. AUD/USD ek critical level par hai. Trading decision lene se pehle yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke kya price 0.6570 ke level par sustain karti hai ya break karti hai. Agar break hota hai, to selling entry sahi rahegi. Wapas bullish trend mein shift hone ke liye, hamen Parabolic SAR aur CCI mein positive signal ka intezar karna hoga.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Daily


Hello Victor! Mujhe pata hai ke aap forex market mein kaafi experienced hain, is liye aapki price behavior ke baare mein observations kaafi valuable hain! Kya aapko lagta hai ke unhone apna mind already badal diya hai?
Theory ke mutabiq, yeh hi kuch hua hai AUD/USD ke saath – uptrend ka mark tha aur ab woh khatam ho gaya hai. Mere technique ke mutabiq, yeh expect kiya gaya tha ke price ek kaafi impressive resistance level ko test karega – 0.6645, jo ke Ichimoku cloud ke lower band ke saath ban raha tha aur local MA18 ne bhi is level ko reach kiya. Ab, indicators ki readings ke mutabiq hum kya expect kar sakte hain:

- MA100 parallel space se move kar raha hai floor ke aas-paas, jo ke flat mode ka sign hai, aur yeh week ke liye kaafi signal de raha hai.
- MA18 ne MA100 ko upar se neeche cross kiya, jo ke ek "dead cross" hai – iska matlab sell signal. Yeh cross achi tarah se downward jaa raha hai, aur light ka movement 40-degree ke angle pe neeche ho raha hai, matlab practically vertically south.
- Ichimoku cloud abhi bullish colors mein hai, jo isko zyada pumped-up dikha raha hai. Forecast ke context mein, technical pattern phir se bearish ho raha hai aur MA100 ke neeche ribbon ko drag kar raha hai.


Lagta hai ke is pair mein kaafi bearish momentum hai. Shayad hum 0.6645 resistance ke aas-paas flatten ho jaayein, aur phir hum south ki taraf move karein.

Dusri taraf, dollar par bhi pressure hai lekin elections hain aur results kal aa sakte hain, toh market kaafi volatile ho sakti hai. Halanke, main khud long-term initiative par focus karna zyada pasand karunga. Is liye, agar hum phir se 0.6575 ke neeche aa jaate hain, toh main wahan buy karne ka sochunga.

AUD/USD currency pair

abhi 0.65798 ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai aur trend bearish nazar aa raha hai. Pichle kuch sessions mein market mein ehtiyaat dekhi gayi hai aur yeh level ke aas-paas consolidate ho rahi hai. Australian dollar, jo zyada tar commodity prices aur risk sentiment se influence hota hai, global factors ki wajah se pressure mein hai. Is mein global growth ke concerns aur U.S. dollar ka strength bhi shamil hai, kyun ke jab investors ko economic challenges ka khatra hota hai toh USD ko safe haven ke tor par dekha jata hai.



AUD ke bearish movement ka aik bara sabab U.S. Federal Reserve ka tight monetary stance ho sakta hai. Interest rates bohot zyada high hain, jo USD ko strong rakhti hain aur doosri currencies, jaise AUD, ko neeche le aati hain. Yeh environment AUD ke liye unfavorable hai kyun ke investors zyada safe aur high-yielding assets ko pasand karte hain jo USD mein hoti hain. Iske ilawa, China ki economy ke hawale se uncertainty bhi AUD par negative impact daal rahi hai, kyun ke China Australia ka sab se bara trading partner hai. China mein demand ke slow hone ke asaraat, khaaskar iron ore jese Australia ke bade exports mein, Aussie dollar ko aur weaken kar sakte hain.
Is waqt toh trend bearish hai, lekin kuch bade developments aane wale dinon mein AUD/USD pair ko move kar sakte hain. Agar U.S. ki taraf se koi weak economic data release hota hai ya phir Federal Reserve apne rate hikes ko rokne ka ishara deti hai, toh USD weaken ho sakta hai, jo AUD ko recover karne ka moka dega. Lekin agar Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne koi dovish approach li ya expected rate hikes na kiye, toh AUD par aur pressure aa sakta hai.
Aik aur factor risk sentiment mein global changes ho sakte hain. AUD ko “risk-on” currency kaha jata hai aur yeh tab rally karta hai jab investors optimistic hote hain. Agar China ki economic conditions mein improvement nazar aata hai ya Fed apni policy mein pivot karta hai, toh AUD/USD mein rally dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Aur agar U.S. inflation moderate hona shuru hota hai, toh Federal Reserve apne aggressive rate stance ko soften kar sakti hai, jo AUD par se kuch pressure kam kar sakta hai.

AUD/USD Currency Pair: Current Bearish Trend and Future Outlook

AUD/USD currency pair abhi 0.66090 par trade kar raha hai, aur ek bearish trend nazar aa raha hai. Australian dollar ka performance U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein kai economic factors se shape hota hai, jaise ke interest rate differences, economic data, aur geopolitical events. Haali mein, U.S. mein monetary policy ke tighten hone aur market concerns ne is downward trend mein contribute kiya hai, jiski wajah se AUD relatively weak ho gaya hai. Lekin, kuch aise indicators hain jo is pair ke liye ek badi movement ka signal de rahe hain.

Factors Driving the Current Bearish Trend

AUD/USD ka bearish trend mukhatar taur par U.S. dollar ki taqat ke wajah se hai, jo Federal Reserve ke tightening interest rate stance se supported hai. Fed ne inflation ko control karne ke liye hawkish tone apnayi hui hai, jiski wajah se dollar ko support mil raha hai aur doosre currencies par pressure ban raha hai, jismein AUD bhi shamil hai. Yeh hawkish approach Australian dollar ke liye ek headwind create kar rahi hai, khaas taur par jab ke Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne neutral ya dovish stance liya hai.

Iske alawa, China mein economic challenges, jo ke Australia ka sabse bara trading partner hai, bhi Australian dollar par additional pressure daal rahe hain. China ki economy mein slowing growth aur real estate market instability ne Australian exports ki demand ko kam kar diya hai, khaas taur par commodities jaise ke iron ore ki. Iska asar Australia ke trade balance par pad raha hai, jo AUD ke appreciation ko limit kar raha hai.

Expectations for Upcoming Movement

Bearish trend ke bawajood, AUD/USD pair agle kuch dinon mein significant movement dekh sakta hai. Market participants kuch key events ka intezaar kar rahe hain jo volatility ko increase kar sakte hain. U.S. ke economic data, jaise ke employment aur inflation reports, ya to Fed ke stance ko mazid mazboot kar sakte hain ya phir ek reassessment karne ka sabab ban sakte hain. Agar data suggest kare ke inflation mein kami aayi hai, to rate hikes ki umeed kam ho sakti hai, jo USD ko weaken karega aur AUD ko thoda relief de sakta hai.

Agar China ki economy mein recovery ke signs milte hain, to yeh Australian dollar ko positively affect kar sakta hai. Commodities ki demand mein behtari se Australia ki export economy ko faida hoga, aur AUD ko mazbooti mil sakti hai. Investors global economic policies mein kisi bhi change ya RBA ke rate policy mein unexpected moves par bhi speculate kar sakte hain, jo AUD/USD ki recovery ko mazid fuel kar sakta hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ka chart Australian Dollar aur US Dollar ke darmiyan ke exchange rate ke trend ko dikhata hai. Is chart mein kuch mahino ka data hai jo hamen market ke behavior ko samajhne mein madad deta hai.
Trend Analysis: Chart par dekhne se maloom hota hai ke March se lekar August tak yeh pair mostly sideways raha, yani price mein ziada movement nahi thi. Lekin August ke baad AUD/USD pair ne upward movement shuru ki, jo September ke end tak barqarar rahi. Is doran price ne apna high touch kiya jo takreeban 0.6900 ke aas-paas tha. Lekin October ke shuru mein price mein strong decline aaya aur yeh downward trend mein chali gayi. Yeh shift humein sellers ke dominant hone ka indication de rahi hai.
Support aur Resistance Levels**: Chart mein kuch ahem support aur resistance levels bhi notice kiye ja sakte hain. Pehla resistance level 0.6500 ke aas-paas hai, jahan October mein price ne baar baar resistance face kiya aur wahan se neeche gir gayi. Isi tarah, 0.6300 ka level support ke taur par kaam kar raha hai, jo price ke further decline ko rok raha hai.
Volume Analysis: Volume bars ko dekhte hue yeh lagta hai ke kuch specific points par market mein buying aur selling pressure barhta hai. Khaas taur par recent days mein buying volume mein izafa hua hai, jo is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke shayad buyers market mein wapas aana shuru ho gaye hain aur price ko support mil raha hai.
Current Scenario aur Possible Strategy**: Filhal, AUD/USD pair November mein 0.6500 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Volume ka izafa aur price ka is level par rehna indicate karta hai ke yeh level support ka kaam kar sakta hai. Agar yeh support barqarar rehti hai, toh price 0.6600 ya us se ooper tak ja sakti hai. Lekin agar yeh level break hota hai, toh price neeche gir kar 0.6300 ka level test kar sakti hai. Is liye, agar aap short-term trade ke liye soch rahe hain, toh buying position ke liye 0.6600 ka target aur stop loss 0.6300 par rakhna behtar ho sakta hai.

umeed hai ke tumhari Sunday afternoon achi guzar rahi hogi aur tum khush ho. AUD/USD ke H4 trading chart par nazar dalte hue ye lagta hai ke week ke aaghaz mein price ne thodi correction karte hue upar ki taraf move kiya hai. Magar kuch waqt baad price dobara niche jaane ki koshish karegi aur 0.6510 ka bearish level toot chuka hai. Is weekend par trading positions ko determine karne ke liye reference lene par ye pata chalta hai ke price abhi bhi downside mein move kar rahi hai, jo ke selling forces ke liye agle raste ka hissa hai. Agar hum short-term trend situation par rahein toh market abhi bhi positive trend mein hai, lekin ye bhi predict kiya ja raha hai ke kuch hissa niche ja sakta hai.Market signals jo upar ki taraf ishaara kar rahe hain unko dekhte hue, ye mumkin hai ke long term mein price dobara bearish side ki taraf move kar sakti hai. Jo price composition pehle 0.65 level ko touch ki thi, us se ye lagta hai ke is mein bearish component hai. Hum abhi bhi sabr se ek trade signal ka intizaar kar rahe hain taake agle hafte ke aaghaz mein market mein entry le sakein. Agar pehle candle gir rahi thi aur ab ruk gayi hai, toh RSI indicator par LimeLife level ne 50 ke neeche break kiya hai jo ke bearish market ka complete hona show karta hai. Agar price dobara niche gayi toh is haftay ka trend aur bhi bearish reh sakta hai, jo mujhe dobara sell ki taraf le jaane par majboor karta hai.

Asian market session mein Friday ki trading ne buyers ko bullish momentum maintain karne ki koshish karte hue dekha jo ke price ko aur bhi bullish bana sakta hai aur seller ke resistance area 0.6689-0.6690 ka target ban sakta hai. Agar ye level baad mein successfully cross ho gaya, toh price agle target par pohanch sakti hai jo strong seller ke supply resistance area 0.6717-0.6719 par hai. Magar agar ye level cross nahi hota toh price ke bearish side par move hone ka imkaan hai aur seller ka target buyer ke support area 0.6642-0.6640 par ho sakta hai.Daily timeframe par Moving Average indicator ka istamal karte hue ye dekha gaya hai ke buyers ne price ya candle ko successfully control kiya hai, jo ke price ko bullish direction mein Yellow MA 200 area (0.6630-0.6632) ke upar le ja sakte hain aur mazid strong bullish candlestick bana sakte hain. Is se ye possibility khul gayi hai ke price aur bhi ooncha ja sakti hai aur agla target Blue MA 100 area par 0.6695 ho sakta hai. Agar ye area bhi mazbooti se cross kar lia gaya toh price Red MA 50 area par 0.6720 ka target le sakti hai.