ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

China ki Inflation Data aur AUD/USD par Asar
## Inflation Data aur Deflationary Spiral ka Khatar

September ke liye China ka naye inflation data ne deflationary spiral ka khatar barh diya hai. Yeh nayi data is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke agar halat na sudhri toh deflation ka silsila shuru ho sakta hai. Chinese policymakers ne nayi fiscal stimulus policies ke liye rhetoric ka istemal jaari rakha, lekin in policies ki tatbeeri ya implementation ke liye koi wazeh tafsilat nahi di gayi.

## Policy-Making Process par Aitbaar ka Girna

Agar China ke policy-making process par aitbaar girta hai, toh is ka negative asar AUD/USD par dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Is report ka yeh hissa pichli report "AUD/USD: Aussie's Recent Recovery May Face Ceiling Below 0.6900" ka follow-up hai, jo 2 September 2024 ko publish hui thi. Is report mein humne dekha tha ke AUD/USD ne 11 September ko 0.6622 par aik low banaya, jo ke 200-day moving average support 0.6600 ke qareeb tha. Iske baad yeh price 0.6900 ke key intermediate-term resistance tak pohanchi, lekin phir se gir gaya, aur 30 September ko intraday high 0.6943 par pahuncha.

## AUD/USD ki Recent Movement

Pichle do hafton mein, AUD/USD ne -3.3% ki kami dekhi aur 10 October ko 0.6701 ka aik low banaya. Iski nayi kamzori ka taluq indirectly Chinese economy ki halat se hai, jo industrial commodities jese ke iron ore ki demand mein kami ki wajah se hui hai. Iron ore Australia ka key export hai jo China ko bheja jata hai, aur iski demand ka girna Australian economy par asar daal raha hai.

## China ki Fiscal Stimulus ki Baatain

Abhi tak China se nayi fiscal stimulus ka koi wazeh aur concrete amount nahi aaya. 26 September ko, Politburo, jo ke China ka top decision-making body hai, ne ek "strongly worded" message diya tha jo ke property market ki mushkilat ko kam karne ke liye mazeed stimulus measures ka waada karta tha. Isne market participants ko umeed

4.35% par stable rakhega.Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham

strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine

ko tarjeeh deni chahiye. Hicken Ashi candlesticks, jo ke price levels ko define karti hain aur regular Japanese candlesticks se mukhtalif hain, meri madad karti hain ke main har reversal moment, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko barwaqt pehchan sakoon. Saath hi, TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator bhi bohat zyada madadgar hai, jo ke chart par support aur resistance ke advanced marks draw karta hai. Yeh indicator us waqt moving assets ke limits ko zahir karta hai jab wo apne maqam par pohonch jata hai. Indicators ko close karne aur deal ko finalize karne ke liye main RSI oscillator ka use karta hoon, jo ke overbought aur oversold zones ko zahir karta hai. Yeh tareeqa instruments ki buying aur selling ko priority dene mein madad karta hai aur ghalat market entries se bachata hai. Ab jo main chart par dekh raha hoon, Hicken Ash candles ka rang ab blue mein badal gaya hai, jo zahir karta hai ke ab bullish mode zyada dominate karega, aur yeh waqt hai ke long trades execute kiye jayen. Prices ne linear channel ke lower line ko cross kar diya tha, lekin neechay ka sabse kam darja choonay ke baad wapas channel ke center line par aa gayi hain. Basement RSI indicator bhi ab buying signal de raha hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab yeh trade karne ke liye achha waqt hai. Main expect kar raha hoon ke price 0.69500 ke maqam tak barh sakti hai jo ke channel ke upper border par hai. Jab order value zone mein dakhil ho jaye, to breakeven ki taraf move karne ka mashwara hai kyun ke market kabhi kabhi humari expectations ko ghalat moves se influence karta hai. Ab agar hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya karein, to Friday ko AUD/USD pair H1 pivot 0.6835 tak nahi pohonch saka tha aur growth 0.6830 par ruk gayi thi. Lekin support level 0.6783 ne price ko zyada girne se roka. Session 0.6816 se rebound ke saath khatam hua, lekin H1 pivot 7/8 (0.6804) tak gir gaya, jab ke M15 time frame bullish raha. Yeh bullish setup yeh batata hai ke Monday se growth 0.6830 tak jaari reh sakti hai. Agar price neechay 0.6790 ke level se toot jata hai, to meri strategy badal jayegi aur phir yeh decline 0.6769 aur 0.6749 ke zone tak

achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se

decline ki tendency rakhta hai. Halaanki aik impulsive price hike hui hai, lekin yeh secondary response hai. Observation dikhata hai ke jab price ne 0.6660 ka low hit kiya, to price EMA 50 ke upar utha aur FR 50 (0.6712) par pause kiya. Ab jo price dobara gir raha hai, wo apni decline ko 0.6660 ke neeche barqarar rakhna chahiye. Jab tak AUD/USD pair ki price 0.6762 high ko cross nahi karti, upward correction phase khatam ho jaye ga aur price increase aik lower high pattern tak restricted rahe ga. Lekin kyunke histogram ne ab tak negative zone mai entry nahi ki ya level 0 ke neeche nahi gaya, jo ke downtrend momentum ko denote karta hai, isliye yeh upward correction phase ko support kar sakta hai. Asal mein, yeh prices ko jo abhi tak EMA 50 ke upar stuck hain, unhein upward correct karne mai madad de sakta hai. Yeh conclude kiya ja sakta hai ke price correct hota rahe ga jab tak overbought market ke saturation point ko achieve nahi karta. Agar parameter level 50 tak pohanchta hai, to price ko higher correct karna expect kiya ja sakta hai.Position ka entry point FR 61.8 aur 0.6722 ke darmiyan hai, jo SMA 200 ke sath converge kar raha hai. Confirmation tab hoti hai jab Stochastic indicator parameter overbought zone mai move karne ke baad levels 90 aur 80 par cross karta hai, jo ke buying saturation point ko denote karta hai. AO indicator ka volume histogram kam az kam level 0 ke qareeb positive area mai hai, jo upward momentum ke slowing down ko indicate karta hai.A-B-C patterns aik 5-3-5 wave sequence hain jo zigzag patterns kehlate hain. 10/17/2024 ko hum ne Elliottwave-Forecast members ke sath yeh chart share kiya tha, jo shorter cycles mai price ka rasta dikhata hai. Chart dikhata hai ke August low se bullish sequence ka aik bearish correction ho raha hai. Pehli reaction mai 5 waves ka drop aur wave (A) ki completion hui thi. Is structure ke sath hum predict kar sakte hain ke aik A-B-C zigzag pattern involve ho raha hai jo 5-3-5 wave sequence hai.
Ab price wave (B) mai hai agar yeh kam az kam 23.6% retracement zone (0.6725) tak extend hota hai. Agar current bounce 0.6725 ke neeche end hota hai, to yeh (B) ke liye kafi nahi hoga. Is surat mai hum isay aik nayi wave 4 (A) ya wave ((ii)) 5 consider kar sakte hain
Click image for larger version

qeemti maloomat haasil kar rahe honge. Aaj hum AUD/USD currency pair ka H4 time frame pe jaiza lete hain. Haal hi mein AUD/USD market ke bulls ne mazahmat dikhai, aur pair ko aham 0.6713 level ke upar le gaye. Ye upar ki taraf harkat strong buying interest ka izhar karti hai, jo ke bullish momentum ke qayam rehne ka ishara deti hai. Doosri taraf, sellers yani bears, pressure mein hain aur control hasil karne mein mushkilat ka samna kar rahe hain. Ye dynamic short-term buying opportunities ke liye ek achi surat-e-haal paish kar raha hai, lekin ehtiyaat ke saath optimism bhi maujood hai. AUD/USD ke bullish sentiment ke peeche kuch wajahen hain. Pehle, Australia se aane wale taaza economic data, jaise employment figures aur GDP growth, kaafi acha raha, jis ne Australian Dollar ko support kiya. Is ke ilawa, market sentiment risk assets ki taraf, jin mein commodities aur emerging market currencies shamil hain, behter hua hai, jo AUD ke liye faidamand raha. In factors ne mil kar Australian Dollar ke strength mein izafa kiya hai against the US Dollar. Technical point se dekha jaye to, 0.6702 level ke upar break hona kaafi significant hai, kyun ke ye ek important resistance-turned-support zone hai. Traders aksar aise levels ko bullish trends ke tasdeeq ke liye dekhte hain aur long positions ke liye entry points samajhte hain. Jab tak price is level ke upar rehti hai, ye bullish bias ko reinforce karti hai in the short term. Lekin, jabke bullish momentum mazboot hai, kuch challenges bhi ho sakte hain. Bears jo ke filhal pressure mein hain, agar market sentiment mein koi tabdeeli hoti hai ya koi achanak economic developments hoti hain, to wo wapas control hasil karne ki koshish kar sakte hain. Is liye, traders ko hamesha hoshiyaar rehna chahiye aur key support aur resistance levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye. Traders dekh sakte hain ke AUD/USD ki mazid strength ka tasdeeq tab hoti hai jab price 0.6720 ke upar rehti hai. Agar price recent highs ko break kar leti hai, to ye mazid upside potential ka ishara de sakti hai, jo ke agla psychological level 0.6750 ya us se upar tak target kar sakti hai. Is ke bar’aks, agar pair 0.6720 ke upar rehnay mein nakam hoti hai aur wapas girti hai, to traders pehle ke lows ya moving averages jaise support levels ko dekh sakte hain for potential buying opportunities. AUD/USD ka H4 time frame filhal bullish activity ko reflect kar raha hai, aur pair 0.6700 level se upar hai. Ye suggest karta hai ke buyers dominate kar rahe hain, jabke sellers pressure mein hain. Traders ko overall market sentiment aur technical indicators ka jaiza lena chahiye jab short-term buying opportunities ka andaza lagayein. Hamesha ki tarah, ye zaroori hai ke aap economic news aur global developments se baakhabar rahein jo ke currency pair ki direction pe asar

buying ko tarjeeh deni chahiye. Hicken Ashi candlesticks, jo ke price levels ko define karti hain aur regular Japanese candlesticks se mukhtalif hain, meri madad karti hain ke main har reversal moment, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko barwaqt pehchan sakoon. Saath hi, TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator bhi bohat zyada madadgar hai, jo ke chart par support aur resistance ke advanced marks draw karta hai. Yeh indicator us waqt moving assets ke limits ko zahir karta hai jab wo apne maqam par pohonch jata hai. Indicators ko close karne aur deal ko finalize karne ke liye main RSI oscillator ka use karta hoon, jo ke overbought aur oversold zones ko zahir karta hai. Yeh tareeqa instruments ki buying aur selling ko priority dene mein madad karta hai aur ghalat market entries se bachata hai. Ab jo main chart par dekh raha hoon, Hicken Ash candles ka rang ab blue mein badal gaya hai, jo zahir karta hai ke ab bullish mode zyada dominate karega, aur yeh waqt hai ke long trades execute kiye jayen. Prices ne linear channel ke lower line ko cross kar diya tha, lekin neechay ka sabse kam darja choonay ke baad wapas channel ke center line par aa gayi hain. Basement RSI indicator bhi ab buying signal de raha hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab yeh trade karne ke liye achha waqt hai. Main expect kar raha hoon ke price 0.69500 ke maqam tak barh sakti hai jo ke channel ke upper border par hai. Jab order value zone mein dakhil ho jaye, to breakeven ki taraf move karne ka mashwara hai kyun ke market kabhi kabhi humari expectations ko ghalat moves se influence karta hai. Ab agar hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya karein, to Friday ko AUD/USD pair H1 pivot 0.6835 tak nahi pohonch saka tha aur growth 0.6830 par ruk gayi thi. Lekin support level 0.6783 ne price ko zyada girne se roka. Session 0.6816 se rebound ke saath khatam hua, lekin H1 pivot 7/8 (0.6804) tak gir gaya, jab ke M15 time frame bullish raha. Yeh bullish setup yeh batata hai ke Monday se growth 0.6830 tak jaari reh sakti hai. Agar price neechay 0.6790 ke level se toot jata hai, to meri strategy badal jayegi aur phir yeh decline 0.6769 aur 0.6749 ke zo

qeemti maloomat haasil kar rahe honge. Aaj hum AUD/USD currency pair ka H4 time frame pe jaiza lete hain. Haal hi mein AUD/USD market ke bulls ne mazahmat dikhai, aur pair ko aham 0.6713 level ke upar le gaye. Ye upar ki taraf harkat strong buying interest ka izhar karti hai, jo ke bullish momentum ke qayam rehne ka ishara deti hai. Doosri taraf, sellers yani bears, pressure mein hain aur control hasil karne mein mushkilat ka samna kar rahe hain. Ye dynamic short-term buying opportunities ke liye ek achi surat-e-haal paish kar raha hai, lekin ehtiyaat ke saath optimism bhi maujood hai. AUD/USD ke bullish sentiment ke peeche kuch wajahen hain. Pehle, Australia se aane wale taaza economic data, jaise employment figures aur GDP growth, kaafi acha raha, jis ne Australian Dollar ko support kiya. Is ke ilawa, market sentiment risk assets ki taraf, jin mein commodities aur emerging market currencies shamil hain, behter hua hai, jo AUD ke liye faidamand raha. In factors ne mil kar Australian Dollar ke strength mein izafa kiya hai against the US Dollar. Technical point se dekha jaye to, 0.6702 level ke upar break hona kaafi significant hai, kyun ke ye ek important resistance-turned-support zone hai. Traders aksar aise levels ko bullish trends ke tasdeeq ke liye dekhte hain aur long positions ke liye entry points samajhte hain. Jab tak price is level ke upar rehti hai, ye bullish bias ko reinforce karti hai in the short term. Lekin, jabke bullish momentum mazboot hai, kuch challenges bhi ho sakte hain. Bears jo ke filhal pressure mein hain, agar market sentiment mein koi tabdeeli hoti hai ya koi achanak economic developments hoti hain, to wo wapas control hasil karne ki koshish kar sakte hain. Is liye, traders ko hamesha hoshiyaar rehna chahiye aur key support aur resistance levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye. Traders dekh sakte hain ke AUD/USD ki mazid strength ka tasdeeq tab hoti hai jab price 0.6720 ke upar rehti hai. Agar price recent highs ko break kar leti hai, to ye mazid upside potential ka ishara de sakti hai, jo ke agla psychological level 0.6750 ya us se upar tak target kar sakti hai. Is ke bar’aks, agar pair 0.6720 ke upar rehnay mein nakam hoti hai aur wapas girti hai, to traders pehle ke lows ya moving averages jaise support levels ko dekh sakte hain for potential buying opportunities. AUD/USD ka H4 time frame filhal bullish activity ko reflect kar raha hai, aur pair 0.6700 level se upar hai. Ye suggest karta hai ke buyers dominate kar rahe hain, jabke sellers pressure mein hain. Traders ko overall market sentiment aur technical indicators ka jaiza lena chahiye jab short-term buying opportunities ka andaza lagayein. Hamesha ki tarah, ye zaroori hai ke aap economic news aur global

buying ko tarjeeh deni chahiye. Hicken Ashi candlesticks, jo ke price levels ko define karti hain aur regular Japanese candlesticks se mukhtalif hain, meri madad karti hain ke main har reversal moment, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko barwaqt pehchan sakoon. Saath hi, TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator bhi bohat zyada madadgar hai, jo ke chart par support aur resistance ke advanced marks draw karta hai. Yeh indicator us waqt moving assets ke limits ko zahir karta hai jab wo apne maqam par pohonch jata hai. Indicators ko close karne aur deal ko finalize karne ke liye main RSI oscillator ka use karta hoon, jo ke overbought aur oversold zones ko zahir karta hai. Yeh tareeqa instruments ki buying aur selling ko priority dene mein madad karta hai aur ghalat market entries se bachata hai. Ab jo main chart par dekh raha hoon, Hicken Ash candles ka rang ab blue mein badal gaya hai, jo zahir karta hai ke ab bullish mode zyada dominate karega, aur yeh waqt hai ke long trades execute kiye jayen. Prices ne linear channel ke lower line ko cross kar diya tha, lekin neechay ka sabse kam darja choonay ke baad wapas channel ke center line par aa gayi hain. Basement RSI indicator bhi ab buying signal de raha hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab yeh trade karne ke liye achha waqt hai. Main expect kar raha hoon ke price 0.69500 ke maqam tak barh sakti hai jo ke channel ke upper border par hai. Jab order value zone mein dakhil ho jaye, to breakeven ki taraf move karne ka mashwara hai kyun ke market kabhi kabhi humari expectations ko ghalat moves se influence karta hai. Ab agar hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya karein, to Friday ko AUD/USD pair H1 pivot 0.6835 tak nahi pohonch saka tha aur growth 0.6830 par ruk gayi thi. Lekin support level 0.6783 ne price ko zyada girne se roka. Session 0.6816 se rebound ke saath khatam hua, lekin H1 pivot 7/8 (0.6804) tak gir gaya, jab ke M15 time frame bullish raha. Yeh bullish setup yeh batata hai ke Monday se growth 0.6830 tak jaari reh sakti hai. Agar price neechay 0.6790 ke level se toot jata hai, to meri strategy badal jayegi aur phir yeh decline 0.6769 aur 0.6749 ke zo

AUD/USD ka darja signal line se neeche tha, aur is ne bearish divergence ka zikar kiya, jo ke MACD par nazar aa raha tha. Chart par aik reversal pattern bana, jo ascending wedge tha, aur ye neeche ki taraf toota. Jab price 0.6909 ke level ke neeche consolidate hui, to ye aik sell signal bana. Behtareen bechnay ka mauqa tab mila jab ye level neeche se retest hui aur resistance ban gayi, jo ke growth peak par mirror image bana. Ye sab kuch US dollar ki taqat ki wajah se hua, jo ke pichlay hafte major currencies ke khilaf mazboot hui. Agar meri soch theek sabit hoti hai, to price 0.6847 ke accumulation point tak barh sakti hai. Agar ye scenario sahi hota hai, aur agar AUD/USD ka level 0.6752 support bana rehta hai, to humein 0.6752 se 0.6928 tak ka dramatic rebound dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jahan significant buying interest maujood hai. Price shuru mein neeche gayi lekin US employment data ki release hone tak wo stabilize rahi, jisme non-agricultural sector mein behtareen tabdeeliyan dekhi gayi. Khaaskar, average hourly wage mein izafa hua aur unemployment rate ghat gaya. Halankeh in figures par shak karna samajh se baahir nahi, lekin US dollar ne mazbooti se react kiya aur doosri global currencies ke khilaf taqat hasil ki.
Price ab us ascending support line par hai jo ke daily waves ke neeche banai gayi thi. Is waqt, CCI indicator lower overheating zone se upar ki taraf ja raha hai, jo slight bullish divergence ko darshata hai. Ye scenario upward correction ka aik mazboot signal hai, jo ke 0.6838 ya is se zyada resistance level tak ja sakta hai. Jab hum chart ki baai taraf dekhtay hain, to humein pata chalta hai ke 0.6786 aik technical support level hai, na ke aik volume level.
Market ke movements kabhi kabhi puppeteer's strategies ko darshate hain, kyunke haal ke statistics ye darshate hain ke volume levels par hit karna zyada pasand kiya ja raha hai
Technical analysis ke lehaz se, agar pair 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se neechay girta hai, to pair ko challenges ka samna ho sakta hai. Is level ka breach bearish shift ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo pair ko support level 0.6755 ki taraf lay jaye ga. Agar pair mazid girta hai, to agla ahm level jo dekhna ho ga wo 0.6671 hoga, jo downward momentum ko capitalize karne wale traders ke liye ek significant throwback point ban sakta ha
AUD/USD sell karne ke liye, aur 0.690 se sell positions initiate ki ja sakti hain agar pair mazeed upar jata hai. Ek naya signal aane ka imkaan hai, jo strong support level 0.6857 ki taraf girawat ka ishara kar raha hai. Lekin yeh bhi mumkin hai ke pair neeche jaane se pehle upar ki taraf move kare. Phir bhi, bearish movement abhi tak primary outlook hai. Humein intezar karna padega ke forecast kaam karta hai ya nahi. Agar sellers local support range ke neeche hold karte hain, toh hum ek strong one-way decline dekh sakte hain, jo pair ko sell karne ke estimates ko confirm karega. Agar bears aage barhne mein nakam hotay hain, toh

utha aur FR 50 (0.6712) par pause kiya. Ab jo price dobara gir raha hai, wo apni decline ko 0.6660 ke neeche barqarar rakhna chahiye. Jab tak AUD/USD pair ki price 0.6762 high ko cross nahi karti, upward correction phase khatam ho jaye ga aur price increase aik lower high pattern tak restricted rahe ga. Lekin kyunke histogram ne ab tak negative zone mai entry nahi ki ya level 0 ke neeche nahi gaya, jo ke downtrend momentum ko denote karta hai, isliye yeh upward correction phase ko support kar sakta hai. Asal mein, yeh prices ko jo abhi tak EMA 50 ke upar stuck hain, unhein upward correct karne mai madad de sakta hai. Yeh conclude kiya ja sakta hai ke price correct hota rahe ga jab tak overbought market ke saturation point ko achieve nahi karta. Agar parameter level 50 tak pohanchta hai, to price ko higher correct karna expect kiya ja sakta hai.Position ka entry point FR 61.8 aur 0.6722 ke darmiyan hai, jo SMA 200 ke sath converge kar raha hai. Confirmation tab hoti hai jab Stochastic indicator parameter overbought zone mai move karne ke baad levels 90 aur 80 par cross karta hai, jo ke buying saturation point ko denote karta hai. AO indicator ka volume histogram kam az kam level 0 ke qareeb positive area mai hai, jo upward momentum ke slowing down ko indicate karta hai.A-B-C patterns aik 5-3-5 wave sequence hain jo zigzag patterns kehlate hain. 10/17/2024 ko hum ne Elliottwave-Forecast members ke sath yeh chart share kiya tha, jo shorter cycles mai price ka rasta dikhata hai. Chart dikhata hai ke August low se bullish sequence ka aik bearish correction ho raha hai. Pehli reaction mai 5 waves ka drop aur wave (A) ki completion hui thi. Is structure ke sath hum predict kar sakte hain ke aik A-B-C zigzag pattern involve ho raha hai jo 5-3-5 wave sequence hai. Ab price wave (B) mai hai agar yeh kam az kam 23.6% retracement zone (0.6725) tak extend hota hai. Agar current bounce 0.6725 ke neeche end hota hai, to yeh (B) ke liye kafi nahi hoga. Is surat mai hum isay aik nayi wave 4 (A) ya wave ((ii)) 5 consider kar sakte hain
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اکتوبر 25 2024 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کے لیے پیشن گوئی

آسٹریلوی ڈالر 0.6640 کی سطح پر اپنی گراؤنڈ رکھنے کے لیے جدوجہد کر رہا ہے۔ اجناس کی گرتی ہوئی قیمتیں اس پر دباؤ ڈال رہی ہیں، جب کہ یورپی کرنسیوں میں اضافہ اس کو سہارا دینے میں مدد کرتا ہے — گزشتہ روز ڈالر کا انڈیکس 0.34 فیصد گر گیا۔ یومیہ چارٹ پر مارلن آسیلیٹر ایک طرف حرکت کرتا رہتا ہے، مطلب یہ ہے کہ ایک اہم اشارے کے طور پر، یہ ترقی کی صلاحیت کو ظاہر نہیں کرتا ہے۔

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اگر یورو اور پاؤنڈ میں اضافہ مضبوط ہو تو ممکنہ اضافہ ہو سکتا ہے، لیکن یہ صرف 0.6570 کے ابتدائی ٹیسٹ کے بعد ہو سکتا ہے۔ اگر اجناس کا دباؤ آج کم ہوجاتا ہے، تو ہم کل اوپر کی حرکت دیکھ سکتے ہیں۔ آج، تاہم، یہ ممکنہ طور پر 0.6640 کی سطح سے اوپر استحکام پر توجہ مرکوز کرے گا، جو a0.6727 کے ہدف کو کھول سکتا ہے۔

قیمت کو ابھی تک چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر کسی بھی سمت میں ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے دور ہونا باقی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر ترقی کے علاقے کے ساتھ باؤنڈری کے قریب پہنچ رہا ہے لیکن ابھی اس میں جانا باقی ہے۔ صورتحال غیر جانبدار رہتی ہے، اور ہم آج کے آخر تک کسی حل کا انتظار کر رہے ہیں۔

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تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Aud/USD

ko tarjeeh deni chahiye. Hicken Ashi candlesticks,
jo ke price levels ko define karti hain aur regular Japanese candlesticks se mukhtalif hain, meri madad karti hain ke main har reversal moment, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko barwaqt pehchan sakoon. Saath hi, TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator bhi bohat zyada madadgar hai, jo ke chart par support aur resistance ke advanced marks draw karta hai. Yeh indicator us waqt moving assets ke limits ko zahir karta hai jab wo apne maqam par pohonch jata hai. Indicators ko close karne aur deal ko finalize karne ke liye main RSI oscillator ka use karta hoon, jo ke overbought aur oversold zones ko zahir karta hai. Yeh tareeqa instruments ki buying aur selling ko priority dene mein madad karta hai aur ghalat market entries se bachata hai. Ab jo main chart par dekh raha hoon, Hicken Ash candles ka rang ab blue mein badal gaya hai, jo zahir karta hai ke ab bullish mode zyada dominate karega, aur yeh waqt hai ke long trades execute kiye jayen. Prices ne linear channel ke lower line ko cross kar diya tha, lekin neechay ka sabse kam darja choonay ke baad wapas channel ke center line par aa gayi hain. Basement RSI indicator bhi ab buying signal de raha hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab yeh trade karne ke liye achha waqt hai. Main expect kar raha hoon ke price 0.69500 ke maqam tak barh sakti hai jo ke channel ke upper border par hai. Jab order value zone mein dakhil ho jaye, to breakeven ki taraf move karne ka mashwara hai kyun ke market kabhi kabhi humari expectations ko ghalat moves se influence karta hai. Ab agar hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya karein, to Friday ko AUD/USD pair H1 pivot 0.6835 tak nahi pohonch saka tha aur growth 0.6830 par ruk gayi thi. Lekin support level 0.6783 ne price ko zyada girne se roka. Session 0.6816 se rebound ke saath khatam hua, lekin H1 pivot 7/8 (0.6804) tak gir gaya, jab ke M15 time frame bullish raha. Yeh bullish setup yeh batata hai ke Monday se growth 0.6830 tak jaari reh sakti hai. Agar price neechay 0.6790 ke level se toot jata hai, to meri strategy badal jayegi aur phir yeh decline 0.6769 aur 0.6749 ke zone tak

#5471 Collapse Umairafza
Australian dollar (AUD) ne guzishta hafta apni upar ki taraf harkat jaari rakhi, nayi local highs ko tod kar aage badha, magar 0.6949 ke qareebi level par resistance ka samna karte hue wapas neeche aagaya. Shuru mein 0.6871 barrier ko torhne ke baad, currency ko nayi resistance par rukawat ka samna hua aur uske baad correction ka ishara diya. Ab price super-trend red zone mein daakhil ho chuki hai, jo ke mazid gehra correction ka ishara hai.Taqaniki tor par outlook abhi tak bullish hai, aur RSI aur 50-day moving average jaise indicators se positive signals mil rahe hain jo ye batate hain ke uptrend abhi jaari reh sakti hai. Bullish momentum tab tak barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai jab tak 0.6730 level clear tor par nahi todta. Agar ye level toot gaya, to targets shift hoke 0.7233 aur 0.7130 tak ho sakte hain. Lekin agar price 0.6903 ke neeche aake stabli trading karta hai, to temporary negative pressure lag sakta hai jo price ko 0.7089 tak le ja sakta hai.Bunyadi tor par AUD ki US dollar ke khilaf recent izafa US Producer Price Index (PPI) report ki wajah se hua hai, jo ke inflation mein kami ka ishara deti hai. September mein PPI 0.2% barh gaya, jo pichlay maheenay ke level ke barabar tha, aur core PPI bhi 0.2% barha. Salana bunyadon par, PPI thodi si kam hokar 1.8% ho gayi, jisne Federal Reserve se monetary easing ke intezar ko mazid barhawa diya. Inflation mein kami ke sath, markets ab 95.6% ka chance de rahe hain ke November ke meeting mein Fed quarter-point rate cut karega.Is buniyadi surat-e-haal ke bawajood, traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye, kyunke koi bhi manfi data ya geopolitics ke risk AUD/USD pair mein volatility ko barha sakti hai. 0.6903 support level aur 0.6949 resistance par nazar rakhna zaroori hoga taake risk ko manage kiya ja sake aur aane wali movement ka faida uthaya ja sake.