aud/usd

Australian dollar (AUD) ne US dollar (USD) ke khilaf kami dekhi jab chaarshambay ko kuch ahem maashi data release hua. Risk-sensitive AUD/USD jor par niche pressure tha jab ke Middle East mein geopolitical tensions mein izafa hua. Israeli Broadcasting Corporation (IBA) ne report kiya ke Israeli security cabinet ne Iran ke hamlon ke jawab mein zor dar jawab dene ka faisla kiya. Australia ka trade balance August mein $5.644 billion ka surplus dikhata hai, jo market ki umeedon se zyada hai aur pichle mahine ke surplus se thoda zyada hai. Magar, August mein imports aur exports dono pichle quarter ke muqablay mein kam hue hain. Is mixed trade data ke bawajood, Australian dollar Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke hawkish outlook se support hasil kar raha tha. August mein retail sales ki umeed se zyada growth ne RBA ke taraf se jaldi interest rate cut hone ki sambhavna ko kam kar diya. Market ne lagbhag November mein rate cut ki sambhavna ko khatam kar diya. China, jo Australia ka sab se bada trading partner hai, mein stimulus measures ne commodity prices ko upar ki taraf le jaaya, jo Australian dollar ko aur support faraham kar raha tha. Traders ne chaarshambay ko aane wale kuch ahem US maashi data, jaise September ISM Services PMI aur pichle hafte ke weekly jobless claims, par nazar rakhi hui thi.

AUD/USD jor ne chaarshambay ko sidha trade kiya, jab ke pichle teen behtareen sessions ne isay February 2023 ke baad se sab se unche star par le jaaya. US Personal Consumption Expenditures report kaafi ahem kirdar ada karne ki umeed thi is jor ki qareeb mustaqbil ki direction tay karne mein. 5 August 2024 ko shuru hone wala uptrend mazboot tha, jo kuch unche highs aur unche lows se support hasil kar raha tha. Momentum indicators mixed the. Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) ne tezi se izafa kiya, jo ek strong bullish trend ki nishani thi, jab ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) apne 50 midpoint se kaafi upar trade kar raha tha. Lekin, Stochastic Oscillator overbought zone mein tha, jo maujooda uptrend ko khatar mein daal sakta hai. Agar bulls ko confidence bana raha, to wo AUD/USD jor ko 25 February 2021 ko tay ki gayi trend line ke upar le jane ki koshish kar sakte hain. Agar is trend line ke upar successful break hota hai, to ye October 13, 2022 se February 2, 2023 tak ke uptrend ka 50% Fibonacci retracement level 0.6924 ka test kar sakta hai. Is ke aage, 0.7000 level agla logical target ban sakta hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ka tajziya technical analysis par mabni hai, jahan hum khaas taur par resistance aur support levels, volume, aur basement indicators par diqat denge. Chart par Heiken Ashi candles ka silsila aur TMA (Triangular Moving Average) aur RSI indicators ke sath signals market ke bullish mode mein daakhil hone ka ishara dete hain.

Heiken Ashi candles, jo aam Japanese candles se mukhtalif hoti hain, ek smooth aur average price dikhati hain, jo technical analysis ko behtari aur trading decisions mein accuracy ko barhati hai. TMA channel indicator (surkh, neela aur peela lines) do-time smooth moving averages par mabni support aur resistance lines banata hai, jo instrument ke movement ka current range wazeh taur par dikhata hai.

Trade filtering ke liye hum RSI Basement oscillator istamal karte hain, jo Heiken Ashi ke sath mil kar positive results deta hai. Haliye chart par hum dekh sakte hain ke candles ne apna rang badal kar neela kar liya hai, jo bullish driver ke hawi hone ko darshata hai. Price ne channel ki neechay wali hadd (surkh dotted line) ko cross kiya aur minimum point se bounce karte hue wapis middle line (peeli dotted line) ki taraf aa rahi hai. RSI oscillator bhi buy signal ko confirm kar raha hai, kyun ke is waqt is ki curve upside par hai aur overbought levels ke qareeb nahi hai.

Is sab ko madde nazar rakhte hue, hum yeh logical nateeja nikal sakte hain ke upper limit of the channel tak target karte hue market prices ke zariye ek acha waqt paida ho chuka hai ke ek profitable long trade kiya jaye aur sab se behtareen prices par buy positions khuli jayein. Is silsile mein blue dotted line ka mark 0.69900 hai, jo ek significant price point ko zahir karta hai.

Is chart ka current analysis yeh dikhata hai ke market mein bullish sentiment hawi hai aur Heiken Ashi candles ke rang aur TMA channel ke sath price ka bounce karna is trend ko mazid support karta hai. Yeh waqt ek munasib entry point banata hai jahan buyers market ka faida utha sakte hain. Price ki movement ke indicators yeh batate hain ke bullish momentum jaari reh sakta hai jab tak price channel ke andar rahe.

Price ne ek significant rally ke baad 0.6947 ke 20-mahine ke naye high par pohanchne ke baad stabilize ho gaya hai, jo Monday ki European session mein dekha gaya. Is price ki surge ab thodi ruk gayi hai kyun ke investors apni tawajjoh Australia ke monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data ki aane wali release ki taraf shift kar rahe hain. Likha jaane ke waqt, jor 0.6855 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jab ke market ke hissedaar key economic data ke aage apni positions ko dobara assess kar rahe hain.

Wider market context riskier assets jaise Australian Dollar ke liye supportive hai. Global investors Fed ke interest rates ko kam karne ki sambhavna par speculate kar rahe hain, jab ke RBA ne inflation par apna aggressive stance banaye rakha hai, is wajah se price ko local aur international dono factors se faida mila hai. Magar, aane wala Australian CPI data is jor ki mustaqbil ki trajectory tay karne mein bohot ahem kirdar ada karega, khaaskar jab market participants evolving economic conditions ke mutabiq adjust kar rahe hain.

### Positive Market Sentiment Australian Dollar ko Support Deta Hai

Pair ki rally mein pause ke bawajood, upbeat market sentiment price ko support de raha hai. Risk assets kaafi achha perform kar rahe hain, jise largely is umeed ki wajah se dekha gaya hai ke US Federal Reserve (Fed) September se interest rates kam karna shuru karega. S&P 500 futures ne European trading hours mein decent gains dekhe, jab ke US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ko chhe major currencies ke khilaf measure karta hai, ek saal ke low 101.83 par pohanchne ke baad zameen gain karne mein pareshani mehsoos kar raha hai. Ye favorable sentiment Aussie ke liye downside ko cushion kar raha hai.

### Australia ki Volatile Economic Environment ka Asar

Australia ka maashi mahol volatile hai, magar Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ka inflation par aggressive stance kuch stability faraham kar raha hai. RBA ka rising prices ko control karne ka commitment ne multiple interest rate cuts ki umeedon ko kam kar diya hai, jo Australian Dollar ko support faraham kar raha hai. Is wajah se, AUD/USD pair global uncertainties ke bawajood market mein resilience dikhata rahega.

### Key Technical Levels aur Moving Averages

AUD/USD pair near-term support 0.6877 level par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas dhoond raha hai. Agar is level ke neeche break hota hai, to bullish outlook kamzor ho sakta hai aur jor ko neeche ki taraf 0.6821 ke throwback support level ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jiske baad ek aur key support 0.6740 hai. Traders in levels par nazar rakh rahe hain jab wo pair ke agle move ko assess karte hain.


Daily timeframe par, spot price apne monthly high 0.6937 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Jor ka near-term outlook mazboot hai, jo positive market sentiment aur technical indicators se support hasil kar raha hai. 50-day EMA, jo abhi 0.6710 ke aas-paas neeche ki taraf ja raha hai, ek mazboot upward momentum ki nishani hai. Saath hi, 14-period Commodity Channel Index (CCI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo aage aur faide ki sambhavna ko mazid mazboot karta hai.

Spot price abhi bhi lagbhag flat hai, aur Thursday ke European session ke doran 1.3530 ke qareeb hover kar raha hai. Traders abhi side par wait kar rahe hain kyunki sab BoC (Bank of Canada) ke aane wale interest rate faislay ka intezar kar rahe hain. Yeh uncertainty ne pair ko ek narrow trading range mein rakha hai, lekin ek potential upside breakout 1.3576 ke upar ho sakta hai, jo pair ko 1.3600 aur 1.3631 levels ki taraf dhakel sakta hai.

**BoC Interest Rate Faislay Par Investors Ki Tawajjo:**

BoC se wasay to yeh umeed thi ke interest rates mein kami ki jaye gi, lekin yeh ab tak Canadian Dollar (CAD) ki mazeed kamzori ka sabab nahi ban saka. Investors ek dovish rate faislay ki taraf jhukaav rakhte hain kyunki Canadian economy mein inflationary pressures kafi had tak control mein hain. Iske ilawa, mulk ki economic growth bhi kamzori dikhati hai, aur liquidity ka boost dena zaroori ho sakta hai taake recovery ko farog mile. Monetary easing ki yeh umeed bazar mein ehtiyaat ko barhawa de rahi hai, jabke investors BoC ke official stance ka intezar kar rahe hain.

**Crude Oil Prices Ka CAD Par Asar:**

Loonie (CAD) ke struggles mein mazeed izafa tab hua jab crude oil prices 9 mahinay ke lowest point par aa gayi hain. Weaker-than-expected US economic data aur China ki kamzor economy ne global slowdown ke hawalay se concerns ko barhawa diya, jo oil prices ko nuqsan pohcha raha hai. Kyunki Canada United States ka sab se bara oil exporter hai, is liye oil prices ka girna CAD ki qeemat par negative asar dalta hai, aur yeh currency ki maujooda volatility mein mazeed izafa kar raha hai.

**USD/CAD Ki Technical Analysis:**

Ek key level jo dekhne layak hai wo 1.3550 hai, kyunki agar price is point ke upar close karta hai to yeh ek bullish reversal ko confirm kare ga, jo prevailing bearish trend par shak paida kare ga. Agar yeh pair is level ko breach karne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, to yeh 1.3591 ko target kare ga. Agar yeh is level se aage barhta hai, to yeh ek stronger reversal ka ishara ho ga, aur market participants ko buying opportunities dekhne ka mauqa mile ga. Agla upside target kareeban 1.3640 ke qareeb ho ga, aur phir psychological resistance 1.3700 ke aas paas ho gi.

Yeh technical aur fundamental factors bazar mein mazeed volatility ka sabab ban rahe hain, aur traders ko BoC ke rate faislay ka intezar hai jo market ki direction ka taayun kare ga.

AUD/USD currency pair ke price behaviour assessment par markaz hai. Yeh pair hourly chart par thoda bearish nazar aa raha hai, lekin yeh movement un diligent sellers ki umeedon se door hai. Hum extreme low tak nahi pahunche, isliye ek significant decline ka prediction karna abhi jaldi hai. Jumme ke trading aksar ek key indicator hota hai, jo aane wale predictions ka buniyad tayar karta hai. Kyunki price minimum ke neeche nahi gayi, hum sirf limited drop ke baare mein baat kar sakte hain, jo ke ek full correction nahi, balki ek zigzag pattern hai, jo is situation mein acha fit hota hai. Market jald hi flat phase mein shift ho sakti hai. Main 0.6679 ke aas-paas long positions ke liye potential dekhta hoon. Halankeh koi significant support levels nazar nahi aate, yahan kuch hafton pehle ek noticeable rebound dekha gaya tha. Is rebound ki taqat modest ho sakti hai, jo shayad 0.6729 tak peak kare, uske baad zigzag ka khatma ho sakta hai. Is waqt buying positions se exit karna behtar hoga. Aage dekhte hue, 0.68000 level ke aas-paas ek prominent resistance area nazar aa raha hai, jo liquidity zone aur kuch FVG areas se mark kiya gaya hai jo pehle test nahi hue. Yeh region bulls ke liye ek significant hurdle ban sakta hai, jab price is taraf aati hai to potential profit-taking aur sell-side interest dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Lekin, recent sessions mein dekha gaya upward momentum yeh darshata hai ke buyers ke paas is resistance ko challenge karne ki taqat ho sakti hai. Agar price is resistance ko break kar leti hai, to yeh aage ke gains ka rasta khol sakta hai, shayad 0.68500 ke upar higher liquidity levels ko target karte hue.
Neeche ki taraf, 0.67000 ke aas-paas ek key support zone established hai, jahan kai liquidity sweeps hue hain. In liquidity sweeps ki maujoodgi yeh darshati hai ke buyers is level ko defend kar rahe hain, jo potential pullbacks ke khilaf cushion provide karta hai. Agar price is zone ki taraf retrace hoti hai, to yeh dobara buying interest ka samna kar sakti hai, jo isse ek significant support level banata