ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

USD/JPY Ka Halat

US dollar ne 140 yen ke level ke aas paas ek ahm uptrend line se mazboot bounce dekha hai, jo pehle bhi kai baar significant raha hai. Pichle hafte, jab Federal Reserve ne 50 basis point ka rate cut announce kiya, to Bank of Japan ne apne maujooda rates ko barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya, jo market ke liye important sawalat uthata hai.

Khaaskar yeh dekhna dilchasp hai ke pehle yeh concern tha ke Japan achanak hawkish stance apna sakta hai. Magar, Japan ismein ab tak kamiyab nahi hua, mainly apni economy ki fragility ki wajah se. Mulq ka economic structure unhein higher interest rates bardasht nahi karne deta, kyun ke isse debt mein izafa hoga jo economy ko tabah kar sakta hai. Japanese government ko rates ko bahut low rakhne par majboor hona pad raha hai, aur unke paas koi asal option nahi hai ke unhein 25 basis points se upar le jayein. Agar unhone aisa karne ki koshish ki, to yeh sirf Japan nahi, balki global markets mein bhi financial collapse ka sabab ban sakta hai.




Is silsile mein, yeh lagta hai ke USD/JPY pair mein bullish reversal ki shuruaat ho rahi hai, aur is waqt is market ko short karne ka koi acha mauqa nahi hai. Jab tak dollar 140 yen ke key level ke upar rahega, market sentiment aage ke bullish momentum ko support de sakta hai. Yeh baat bhi maine rakhni chahiye ke hafte ke end tak hum is crucial support level ke neeche band nahi hue, jo US dollar ki strength ko yen ke muqablay mein barqarar rakhne ki sambhavnayein darshata hai.

Aakhir mein, jab Bank of Japan economic realities se constrained hai aur US dollar critical support ke upar mazboot hai, to yeh currency pair upar ki taraf jane ka rasta dikhata hai. Is market ko short karna samajhdari nahi lagta jab tak ¥140 level ke neeche koi definitively break nahi hota, jo is waqt nahi lagta.

AUD/USD

Hamari guftagu AUD/USD currency pair ke price behaviour assessment par markaz hai. Yeh pair hourly chart par thoda bearish nazar aa raha hai, lekin yeh movement un diligent sellers ki umeedon se door hai. Hum extreme low tak nahi pahunche, isliye ek significant decline ka prediction karna abhi jaldi hai. Jumme ke trading aksar ek key indicator hota hai, jo aane wale predictions ka buniyad tayar karta hai. Kyunki price minimum ke neeche nahi gayi, hum sirf limited drop ke baare mein baat kar sakte hain, jo ke ek full correction nahi, balki ek zigzag pattern hai, jo is situation mein acha fit hota hai. Market jald hi flat phase mein shift ho sakti hai.

Main 0.6679 ke aas-paas long positions ke liye potential dekhta hoon. Halankeh koi significant support levels nazar nahi aate, yahan kuch hafton pehle ek noticeable rebound dekha gaya tha. Is rebound ki taqat modest ho sakti hai, jo shayad 0.6729 tak peak kare, uske baad zigzag ka khatma ho sakta hai. Is waqt buying positions se exit karna behtar hoga.

Aage dekhte hue, 0.68000 level ke aas-paas ek prominent resistance area nazar aa raha hai, jo liquidity zone aur kuch FVG areas se mark kiya gaya hai jo pehle test nahi hue. Yeh region bulls ke liye ek significant hurdle ban sakta hai, jab price is taraf aati hai to potential profit-taking aur sell-side interest dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Lekin, recent sessions mein dekha gaya upward momentum yeh darshata hai ke buyers ke paas is resistance ko challenge karne ki taqat ho sakti hai. Agar price is resistance ko break kar leti hai, to yeh aage ke gains ka rasta khol sakta hai, shayad 0.68500 ke upar higher liquidity levels ko target karte hue.

Neeche ki taraf, 0.67000 ke aas-paas ek key support zone established hai, jahan kai liquidity sweeps hue hain. In liquidity sweeps ki maujoodgi yeh darshati hai ke buyers is level ko defend kar rahe hain, jo potential pullbacks ke khilaf cushion provide karta hai. Agar price is zone ki taraf retrace hoti hai, to yeh dobara buying interest ka samna kar sakti hai, jo isse ek significant support level banata hai.

Summarize karte hue, AUD/USD clear bullish momentum dikhata hai jab key liquidity gaps fill hoti hain aur support zones se reverse hota hai. 0.68000 level agla critical resistance hai, jiska break hone par aage ke upside ki sambhavna hai. Iske baraks, agar price 0.67000 ya isse neeche pullback hoti hai, to yeh buying interest ka samna karegi, agar market conditions favorable rahe. Pair ka overall structure yeh darshata hai ke jab tak key support levels hold hote hain, bullish trend near term mein jaari reh sakta hai

USD pair mazboot hai, jab ke expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate ko Tuesday ko 4.35% par stable rakhega.Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha

AUD/USD ka jorha apne lambay waqt ke sath 0.68 ke ird gird muqam par muqam ho raha hai. Is mustahkmi se nikalna agle rastay ka pata dega—ya to pichle saal ki bulandiyaon tak pohanchna ya phir kuch mawaqay ke liye neeche ki taraf waapas jana. Mujhe lagta hai ke ye do options aane wale asraat par mabni hain. Federal Reserve ka achanak 50 points ka kamm hona asal mein pehle hi inhe shaamil kar chuka hai. Ab bazar doosri markazi bankon ke amal par nazar rakhega. Bank of Australia ka faisla mangal ko aana hai. Halankeh unse koi tabdeeli ki tawaqqo nahi hai, lekin chunaav ki surat mein hamesha koi na koi heran kun faisla ho sakta hai (jaise Fed se dekha gaya). Is liye, wo mangal tak waise hi ruk sakte hain, aur phir harqat shuru kar sakte hain. Is dauran, Aussie futures par positions ziyata ho rahi hain, jo yeh darust karti hai ke long positions li ja rahi hain. Is liye, humein Aussie ki taqat mein izafa ki tawaqqo hai. Lekin sab kuch ye dekhega ke players kitne azm mein hain. Agar yahan fixation hoti hai to jorha neeche ki taraf waapas ja sakta hai. Jaise ke hamesha, humein apne haath dekhne hain. Is buniyad par, ye currency pair is waqt nasab hai, aur is se nikalne ka raasta agle kuch waqt ka pata dega.
Agar hum dekhein, to AUD/USD pair ke liye sab kuch nasab hai, is ma'ni mein ke upar ki taraf harkat jaari hai. Humne 0.6825 ke ilaaqay mein nazdeek ke maqasid ko haasil kar liya hai, halankeh ab tak hum is se upar nahi gaye. Lekin neeche ki taraf waapas jaane ki koshishain koi hasil nahi de rahi, kam az kam is liye ke hum 68th figure ke upar band hue hain. Aur yahan yeh bhi zaroori hai ke hum yeh dekhein ke is se bhi upar ke maqasid hain, jo 0.69 ke ilaaqay mein hain. Lekin is ke liye ek acha rollback ab bhi zaroori hai. Aur asal mein, agla hafta bhi kaafi gati kadi ka hoga, kyunke wahan bohot si ahem statistics aani hain, jin mein States ka GDP bhi shamil hai. Aur Bank of Australia ki meeting ka bhi khayal rakhna chahiye. Halankeh main khud ab bhi upar ki taraf dekh raha hoon, lekin ek correction ki zaroorat hai

AUD/USD ne naye saal ke buland maqamat par pohanchne ke baad kuch peechay hatega, lekin neeche ki taraf kam zyada rukawat hai. RBA aur Fed ke darmiyan policy ki mukhtalif umeedain market ke acha jazbaat ke darmiyan ek madadgar ke tor par kaam kar rahi hain.

China ne ek silsila tareeqo se riyasati paimaish ka elaan kiya hai, jo Australian dollar ko bhi madad de raha hai. AUD/USD jo ke intraday faida hasil karne ki koshish mein hai, ab 0.6870 ke ilake ya phir is se pehle ke naye buland maqamat tak pahunchnay ki koshish karega, jab ke pehla yahan pehla hissa Europe ke pehle hissay mein dikhai dega.

Haalan ke spot daam kuch pips ki reboun mein hain aur ab 0.6835 ke ilake mein trade kar rahe hain, aaj ke din ke liye lagbhag badal nahi rahe. Intraday peechay hatega ke liye koi wazeh wajah nahi hai aur yeh kuch profit-taking ke natije mein hai, khas taur par 250 pips se zyada ki halat se baad jo 0.6620 ke ilake se hui thi.

Koi bhi ahem darja kam karna abhi tak mumkin nahi lagta, RBA aur Fed ke mukhtalif policy ke umeedon ke wajah se.

AUD/USD ne mangal ko ek naya multi-month high se dur hote hue dekha jab RBA ne aaj ke policy meeting mein rates ko behtar rakhne ka faisla kiya, lekin Governor Bullock ki comments ummeed se kam hawkish thi, jo policy ke sakht hone ke liye umeedon ko shift kar rahi thi.

Pullback halki hai kyunki Aussie ko zyada commodity ke daamon se madad mil rahi hai aur Fed/RBA monetary policy ke mukhtalif hone se yeh dikhata hai ke bade bulls sirf ek rukh le rahe hain. Daily chart par mazboot positive momentum aur Tenkan/Kijun-sen formation ek bullish manzar-e-qabul ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, lekin overbought halat yeh batati hai ke price action extended consolidation mein reh sakta hai.

Pehli support 0.6814/0.6790 ke ilake par hai, jab ke zyada ahem supports 0.6774/66 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.6622/0.6869 / rising 10DMA) par hain, jo neeche ki taraf protection aur bullish structure ko barqarar rakh sakte hain. Resistance: 0.6869; 0.6900; 0.6948; 0.6961. Vulture: 0.6814; 0.6790; 0.6766; 0.6745.

AUD/USD currency pair ne Tuesday ke trading session mein 0.26% ka halka izafa dekha, jo 0.6900 ke aas-paas settle hua. Yeh harkat 100-day aur 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) ke milan ke upar ho rahi hai, jo bullish trend ka ishara deti hai. Australian Dollar (AUD) ko RBA ki hawkish policy aur Australia se aane wale mazboot economic data ki wajah se faida mil raha hai.

RBA ki Hawkish Policy AUD ko Taqat Deti Hai

Spot price ko RBA ke irade se kafi taqat mil rahi hai, jo ke musalsal inflation par nazar rakhne ka darust shikast hai. RBA ki Governor Michele Bullock ne inflation ke khatarat se bachne ki zarurat par zordiya hai, jo yeh darust karta hai ke central bank zaroorat par mazeed interest rate hikes ke liye tayar hai. Yeh proactive approach, sath hi equity markets mein aam taur par achi soorat-e-haal, risk-sensitive Aussie ki attractiveness ko barhata hai.

U.S. Economic Factors Dollar par Asar

Federal Reserve ki Governor Michelle Bowman ne U.S. mein inflationary pressures aur labor market ki mazbooti par fikr ka izhar kiya hai. In ke bayanat se ye samajh aata hai ke Federal Reserve apni aane wali meeting mein interest rates ko kam karne ka irada nahi rakhta. Yeh uncertainty U.S. monetary policy ke around AUD/USD dynamics par asar daal sakti hai, jab traders alag-alag central bank policies ke asraat ka jaiza lete hain.

China ke Economic Indicators

In sab factors ke ilawa, China ka Consumer Price Index (CPI) July mein 0.5% ka saal dar saal izafa dikhata hai, jo ke 0.3% ki umeed aur 0.2% ke pehle ke readings se zyada hai. Monthly CPI bhi 0.5% barh gaya hai, jo pehle ki 0.2% ki kami ko ulat deta hai. Yeh developments global economic conditions ki interrelation ko dikhate hain aur Australian economy par asar dalte hain, jo AUD ki taqat ko mazeed barhata hai.

Technical Analysis: Key Support aur Resistance Levels

0.6860 ke aas-paas ka ascending channel ka lower boundary is pair ke liye ek critical support level hai. Agar price is threshold se neeche girti hai, to traders 0.6844 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ka test karne ki talash kar sakte hain, aur phir pivotal level 0.6770 ki taraf. In support levels ka toofan karna currency pair ke liye bearish outlook ka ishara de sakta hai.

Is ke muqabil, yeh pair ascending channel ke upper boundary ki taraf dekh raha hai, jo filhal 0.6890 ke aas-paas hai. Is level se upar ka breakout is pair ko uski chhe mahine ki unchai 0.6871 tak pahunchnay ka mauqa de sakta hai. Aisa upar ki taraf ka jazba Australian economy aur RBA ki policies par mazboot market confidence ka ishara dega.

AUD/USD Market Analysis
September 24, 2024

Price movements ko daily timeframe par monitor karte hue, ye dekha ja sakta hai ke AUD/USD pair ka trend direction pichle hafte ki trading session mein bullish raha hai. Hafte ke shuruat mein is mein kafi wide range se izafa hua. Halankeh is mahine ke shuruat par price 0.6625 tak neeche aayi, lekin aaj tak market mein price movement ab bhi bullish direction mein badhne ki sambhavnayein rakhti hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ab bhi Simple Moving Average 60 aur 150 indicators ke upar achhi tarah se chal raha hai. Is hafte ki trading session ke shuruat par, price ne buyers se support hasil kiya hai aur ab bhi consistently bullish movement dekh raha hai, jo pichle hafte ke opening price level se door ja raha hai. Is liye, aaj tak ke market conditions dekhte hue, transactions karna kaafi mumkin hai, jo trend ke direction ke mutabiq ho sakta hai aur is izafe ko aage barhane ki umeed hai jo pichle kuch hafton se ho raha hai.

Pichle analysis ki tarah, ye behter hoga ke chart par lagaye gaye indicators ke signals ko dekhein. Relative Strength Index (14) ka Lime Line dekha ja sakta hai jo 70 ke level ke kareeb uth raha hai, jo ke strong bullish market condition ko darshata hai. Long histogram bar zero level se upar hai, jabke MACD ki yellow dotted signal line bhi upar ki taraf chadh rahi hai.


Pichle analysis ki tarah, ye behter hoga ke chart par lagaye gaye indicators ke signals ko dekhein. Relative Strength Index (14) ka Lime Line dekha ja sakta hai jo 70 ke level ke kareeb uth raha hai, jo ke strong bullish market condition ko darshata hai. Long histogram bar zero level se upar hai, jabke MACD ki yellow dotted signal line bhi upar ki taraf chadh rahi hai.

AUD-USD Pair Forecast

AUD/USD jori ki price movement abhi 0.6839 ke resistance ko test karne ki koshish kar rahi hai taake apni upward rally ko jari rakhe. Lekin, bullish trend direction mein price ke upar jaane ki sambhavana zyada hai. Halankeh agar price 0.6839 ke resistance ka ghalat break ya rejection dekhti hai, toh yeh 0.6795 ke minor support ki taraf neeche aa sakti hai. Agar hum dekhein, toh price jo upar ja rahi hai, woh sirf EMA 50 ke aas paas thodi correction de rahi hai bina kisi lower decline ke, jo SMA 200 ko dynamic support ke tor par takreeban nahi pahunch rahi. Yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke maujooda bullish trend ka direction kafi mazboot hai kyunki downward correction ka phase itna neecha nahi hai.

Magar, Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ka nazariya uptrend momentum ke kamzor hone ki taraf ishara karta hai. Positive area mein volume histogram level 0 ke kareeb aata ja raha hai, jo histogram ko negative area mein cross karne ki ijazat de raha hai. Stochastic indicator ka nazariya AUD/USD pair ki price movement ko upar jaane mein zyada support karta hai. Kyunki parameters ne oversold zone 20 - 10 ko cross kiya hai, jo darshata hai ke price decline selling saturation point tak pahunch gaya hai. Agar hum price pattern structure par nazar dalain, toh yeh higher high - higher low condition mein hai. Jab tak 0.6784 ke low prices ka structure break nahi hota, jo ke invalidation level hai, price increase rally jari reh sakti hai.

Setup Entry Position:

Trading options agar hum trend direction ko dekhte hain jo abhi bhi bullish condition mein hai aur higher high - higher low price pattern structure ko dekhte hain, toh sirf BUY moment ka intezar karna chahiye. Entry position ka point minor support 0.6795 par rakha jayega. Confirmation tab hoga jab Stochastic indicator parameters oversold zone 20 - 10 ko cross karenge, jaise pehle ki tareekh mein hua. AO indicator histogram ko phir se green hona chahiye saath hi volume level 0 ya positive area se upar widen hona chahiye taake uptrend momentum mazboot rahe. Take profit ka target 0.6839 resistance ya 0.6856 ke high prices par rakha ja sakta hai, jabke stop loss 0.6748 ke support par rakha jayega.

Australian Dollar (AUD) ko aane wali RBA monetary policy decision ke hawkish expectations se support mil raha hai. Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke AUD ko support PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne ki wajah se mila ho. AUD/USD pair mazboot hai, jab ke expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate ko Tuesday ko 4.35% par stable rakhega.Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai.Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. Lekin 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga.Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai.Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham support psychological level 0.6700 par hoga. Agar is se neeche break hota hai, to pair six-week low 0.6622 ki taraf ja sakta hai.

**Australian Dollar ki Halat**

Australian dollar ne Mangal ko thoda mazbooti hasil ki. European session mein, Australian dollar 0.6845 par trade kar raha hai, jo din bhar mein 0.12% ka izafa hai. Aaj subah, AUD/USD ka rate 0.6869 tak gaya, jo ke is saal ka sab se ucha level hai.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne cash rate ko 4.35% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aksar maqbool faisla tha. Yeh central bank ka chhata dafa hai ke is ne 12 saal ki bulandiyoon par rates ko nahi badla. Australian dollar ne rate announcement ke baad kuch khaas harkat nahi dikhai.

RBA ne kaha hai ke inflation ab bhi zyada hai. Unka bayan yeh tha ke inflation khaas taur par kaafi kam ho chuki hai lekin "target se upar hai aur iska asar mehsoos ho raha hai". Central bank ki ahem priority hai ke inflation ko 2-3% ke target range tak le jaye. RBA ke members ne uncertain economic conditions par chinta zaahir ki, yeh note karte hue ke GDP doosre quarter mein kamzor raha aur China mein slow down ne commodity prices ko nuksan pohanchaya.

Meeting ke baad ki press conference mein, Governor Bullock ne dohraaya ke RBA "jaldi kisi bhi waqt" interest rates ko nahi katne wala. August mein unhone samjhaya tha ke "early deadline" ka matlab hai chhe mahine, jo yeh darshata hai ke RBA 2025 ke shuruat se pehle rates ko nahi katne ki umeed rakhta. Bullock ne yeh bhi kaha ke aaj ki meeting mein rate hike ka khayal nahi tha, jo shayad thoda dovish nazar aata hai.

Pichli meetings mein, RBA ne rates barhane par guftagu ki thi, yeh kehkar ke inflation itni tezi se nahi gir raha. Aik ajeeb mod par, August ka inflation report kal aayega. Umeed hai ke headline inflation July ke 2.8% se gir kar 3% tak aa jayegi.

Agar inflation umeed ke mutabiq ya is se neeche girti hai, to RBA apni agle meeting mein November mein rate cut ko support de sakta hai.

**AUD/USD Technical Analysis**

AUD/USD ne pehle 0.6865 par resistance ka test kiya. Yeh line December 2023 se resistance ka kaam kar rahi hai. Iske qareeb 0.6886 par bhi resistance hai. Agle support levels 0.6830 aur 0.6806 hain. Traders ko in levels ko nazar mein rakhte hue apne trading decisions lena chahiye.

**Australian Dollar Ki Halat: Ek Jaiza**
Australian dollar ne Mangal ko halka sa izafa dekha. European session mein, Australian dollar 0.6845 par trade kar raha hai, jo din ke hawale se 0.12% ki izafa hai. Aaj subah, AUD/USD ne 0.6869 tak pahuncha, jo is saal ka sab se uncha darja hai.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne cash rate ko 4.35% par barqarar rakha, jo ke ek umeed shuda faisla tha. Yeh central bank ka 12 saal ka sab se uncha rate hai, aur yeh saatwi martaba hai jab rates ko nahi badla gaya. Australian dollar ne is rate ka elan karne par koi khaas asar nahi dekha.

RBA ne inflation ke baray mein kaha ke yeh ab bhi bohot uncha hai. RBA ka bayaan is baat ko tasdeeq karta hai ke inflation khaas taur par kam hua hai, lekin yeh ab bhi "target se upar aur mustaqil hai". Central bank ki pehli priority inflation ko 2-3% ke target range mein wapas lana hai. RBA ke ruknon ne ma'ashi halat ke bare mein fikar ka izhar kiya, kehna tha ke GDP doosre quarter mein kamzor raha aur China ki slow down ne commodity prices ko nuqsan pohanchaya.

Governer Bullock ne meeting ke baad ki press conference mein doharaya ke RBA ko "jaldi hi" interest rates cut karne ki umeed nahi hai. August mein unho ne izafa ki wajah batate hue kaha tha ke "early deadline" ka matlab chhe maheene hai, matlab RBA 2025 ke shuru mein rates cut karne ki umeed nahi rakhta. Bullock ne kaha ke aaj ki meeting mein rate hike par ghoor nahi kiya gaya, jo thoda dovish faisla hai.

Pichli meetings mein, RBA ne rates barhane par ghoor kiya, kehna tha ke inflation utni jaldi nahi gir raha jitni umeed thi. Ajeeb taur par, August ki inflation report kal aayegi. Umeed hai ke headline inflation 3% tak kam ho jayegi jo ke July ke 2.8% se zyada hai.

Agar inflation umeed ke mutabiq ya us se kam hoti hai, to RBA apni agle meeting mein November mein rate cut ka support karega.

**AUD/USD Technical Analysis**

AUD/USD ne pehle 0.6865 par resistance test kiya. Yeh line December 2023 se resistance ka kaam kar rahi hai. Iske nazdeek 0.6886 par bhi resistance hai. 0.6830 aur 0.6806 agle support levels hain.

AUD-USD H4 Time Frame

Aakhri kuch dinon mein market ki harkat dekh kar lagta hai ke AUDUSD currency pair ab bhi bullish trend par aage barhne ki salahiyat rakhta hai. Agar hum H4 time frame par price action ka jaiza lein, to bullish trend structure phir se banana shuru ho gaya hai jab market ne August ke aakhri din trading session mein qadam rakha. Pichle kuch dinon se bullish movement jo chal rahi hai, wo aalaaqat se upward trend rally hai. Agar hum pichle mahine ke akhir mein sellers ki nakami ko dekhein, jo 0.6650 ke niche nahi ja sake, to is wajah se dusre buyers ko BUY trading positions lene mein zyada confidence mila hai.

Is waqt candlestick ki position Simple Moving Average indicator ke upar hai, jo yeh darust karti hai ke market ab bhi buyers ke asar mein hai. Price niche girne ke bawajood yellow SMA 60 indicator ko break nahi kar paya, jo ke yeh darust karta hai ke AUDUSD currency pair ke bullish trend ki taraf wapas aane ki salahiyat hai.

Market ki umeed hai ke wo upar ki taraf barhne ki koshish karega. Meri agle andazay ke mutabiq, market ab bhi aage barhne ki taraf hai. Halanki, market is waqt halki downward correction phase mein hai, lekin bullish movement ka mauqa ab bhi zyada range tak jaane ki umeed hai. Mera andaza hai ke aaj raat tak price mein izafa hoga, lekin range itni wide nahi hogi kyunki is hafte ke darmiyan trend shayad correction phase ke baad apne raahein dobara pakrayega.

Agar price 0.6800 ke upar barh jata hai to yeh is currency pair ke liye bullish safar jaari rakhne ka mazboot signal hoga. Is liye buyers ka dominion ab bhi price ko upar push karne ki taqat rakhta hai. Trading ka option ab bhi BUY transactions ki taraf hai.




Natija:

AUDUSD currency pair ke market halat ko agar technically dekha jaye to yeh ab bhi bullish hai, isliye is hafte ke trading session mein price ke izafe ki sambhavnayein ab bhi khuli hain. Lekin buyers ke liye behtar yeh hoga ke thoda sabr karein aur 0.6825 level tak rukne ka intezar karein pehle BUY position kholne se pehle. Target price level bullish ko 0.6875 tak pahunchne ki koshish karni chahiye, aur Stop Loss limit ko 0.6790 par rakhna chahiye.

Agar agle trade mein price 0.6880 ko penetrate kar leta hai, to bullish trend phase dobara shuru ho sakta hai, khas taur par 0.6925 ke range mein. Agar yeh senario market mein hota hai to phir profits maximize karne ka behtar mauqa hoga, pichle kuch dinon ki market trend ko follow karte hue.

Aaj main AUD/USD pair ka tajziya jaari rakhoonga. Aaj dekhne mein aata hai ke price movement tez ho rahi hai, aur aisa lagta hai ke aage chal kar price movement barhne ke liye tayyar hai. Halankeh kuch waqt baad, ek neeche ki taraf correction bhi ho sakta hai. Agar price action mein correction hota hai, toh hum buy position lene par dhyan denge, kyunki yeh ek accha mauka ho sakta hai.
Abhi tak, yeh dekha gaya hai ke price candle ka movement EMA line ke neeche hai, jo yeh batata hai ke buyers ka control abhi bhi qaim hai. Pichle haftay mein price movement kaafi mazboot raha. Halankeh aaj bhi price movement strong hai, lekin hume buy position lene mein jaldi nahi karni chahiye. Hum correction ka intezar kar sakte hain, jab tak price 0.675xx ke nazdeek demand area tak nahi pahunchti. Yeh demand area humare buy position ka entry point ban sakta hai.

Agar 0.675xx par demand ka entry hota hai, toh price action angle demand area, 0.670xx tak neeche aa sakta hai. Hum 0.670xx ko bhi buy position ke liye ek potential area ke taur par istemal kar sakte hain. Yeh point ek strong demand level hai, aur agar price wahan tak pahunchti hai, toh yeh humein ek aur buy opportunity de sakti hai.

Price candle ka movement abhi bhi bullish hai, aur EMA line price candle ke neeche hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke bullish momentum abhi bhi zinda hai. Lekin agar hum 0.675xx demand point par buy position lete hain aur yeh level break hota hai, toh yeh sell signal ho sakta hai. Doosra demand point 0.670xx par hai, jahan se hum buy position lene ka soch sakte hain.

Agar aur demand aata hai, toh humein savdhan rehna hoga ke price action kya aage decline karega ya nahi. Market ki fluctuations ko dhyan mein rakhte hue, hamesha stop-loss ka istemal karna chahiye taake risk ko kam kiya ja sake. Iske alawa, market news aur economic indicators ka bhi khayal rakhna zaroori hai, kyunki yeh price movement ko behtareen taur par asar daal sakte hain

### AUDUSD Ka Trend Aur Market Halat
Aik rozana waqt ke hisaab se price movements ka jaiza lene par yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke AUDUSD pair ka trend pichle hafte ki trading session mein bullish raha. Pichle hafte ke shuru mein bhi is mein kaafi achi izafa dekhi gayi. Halankeh is mahine ke shuru mein price ne 0.6625 ki level tak correction dekhi, lekin aaj tak market mein price movement ab bhi bullish direction mein ja sakti hai.

AUDUSD currency pair abhi bhi Simple Moving Average 60 aur 150 indicators ke upar comfortably move kar raha hai. Is hafte ke shuru mein trading session mein, price ne buyers ki taraf se support hasil kiya aur yeh bullish direction mein consistently move kar raha hai, pichle hafte ke opening price level se door hotay ja raha hai. Is subah tak ke market halat ke hisaab se, aisa lagta hai ke transactions karna ab bhi mumkin hai, jo trend ke direction ke mutabiq ho, jo ke kuch hafton se izafa dekh raha hai.

Pichle analysis ke mutabiq, indicators jo chart par lagaye gaye hain, unke signals dekhna bohot zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (14) ka Lime Line 70 ke qareeb chadh raha hai, jo ke ek strong bullish market condition ko darshata hai. Long histogram bar zero level ke upar hai, aur MACD ka yellow dotted signal line bhi upar ki taraf chadh raha hai.

Magar is cheez ko samajhna zaroori hai ke aaj ke liye price ka izafa zyada dominant ho sakta hai. Is waqt, sabse behthree approach yeh hai ke hum intezar karein ke price resistance ko break kare aur agli resistance tak 0.6863x ke price par pohonche, ya phir reject ho kar neeche support 0.6712x ke aas paas gir jaaye. Iss current position mein, upar jaane ka rujhan abhi bhi hai, lekin neeche jaane ka bhi equal chance hai. Meri raye mein, AUD/USD pair ke liye aaj ka mood yeh hai ke agar resistance break ho jaaye toh buy karein, aur agar support break ho jaaye toh sell karein. Yeh last candlestick ke doji form par base karta hai, jo ke buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan balance ko show karta hai. Abhi, AUD/USD pair daily opening level par trade kar raha hai jo ke balance mein lag raha hai. Aage ke price movements ko analyze karne ke liye, hum M30 time frame par nazar daal sakte hain. Yahan par do minor support aur resistance areas hain, ek 0.6787x price ke aas paas upar ki had par aur doosra 0.6778x price ke aas paas neeche ki had par. Yeh do areas aane wale time mein achi entry opportunities de sakti hain. AUD/USD currency pair ki movement abhi bhi bullish movements ke zair e tarsarf rehne ki poori guzarish hai aur is baat ka imkaan hai ke yeh aagey bhi barh sakti hai. Filhaal mein khud bhi intizaar aur talaash kar