سی ایل/خام تیل کی قیمتیں اور تجزیہ

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Prices Uncertainty Main Bearish Correction Kar Rahen Hen

Crude oil prices beroni awamel aur halat se bohut jaldi mutasir hone wala commodity ya energy stock hai. Pichlay hafte crude oil markets mein significant swings dekhne ko mili, jo supply concerns, geopolitical developments, aur demand expectations ki shifting se driven thi. Hafte ke aghaz mein Russian aur Iranian exports ki tightening se bullish momentum mila, magar akhir tak bearish pressure barhta gaya, jo U.S. crude stockpiles ke izafay, hawkish Federal Reserve policy, aur Ukraine peace talks ke potential breakthroughs se aya. Ab traders is baat ka jaiza le rahe hain ke demand recovery kia in risks ko offset kar sakti hai ya nahi.
Key Points:

• Oil prices volatility ka samna kar rahi hain—supply risks rising U.S. stockpiles ke khilaf hain. Kia demand recovery ek gehri girawat ko roak sakti hai?
• Russian aur Iranian supply cuts se shuru mein gains mile, magar bearish pressure U.S. crude stockpiles aur hawkish Fed ki wajah se barh gaya.
• Ukraine peace talks ne yeh fears paida kiye hain ke Russian sanctions lift ho sakte hain, jo market mein additional crude supply flood kar sakta hai.
• JPMorgan ke mutabiq global oil demand 103.4M bpd tak barh chuki hai, magar economic concerns aur Fed policy future price gains ko cap kar sakti hai.
• WTI crude key support $70.80 par test kar raha hai; agar price $69.55 se neeche break hoti hai, toh $64.78 tak girne ka imkaan hai.

Demand Recovery Ne Limited Support Faraham Kiya
Bearish developments ke bawajood kuch factors ne near-term support diya. Oil demand resilience dikhayi gayi, jahan JPMorgan analysts ne report kiya ke global consumption 103.4 million barrels per day tak barh gayi, jo pichle saal se 1.4 million barrels ka izafa hai. February mein mobility aur heating fuel demand bhi expectations se ziada mazboot rahi, jo supply concerns ke against ek counterbalance bana.

Iske ilawa, trade war fears mein kami ne risk sentiment ko halka sa uplift diya. Biden administration ne naye reciprocal tariffs implement karne mein dair ki, jo global trade slowdown ke fears ko temporarily kam karne mein madadgar raha. Magar uncertainty ab bhi barqarar hai, kyunki naye tariff recommendations April 1 tak expected hain, jo crude demand ko affect kar sakti hain.

Supply Constraints Se Oil Prices Ko Aghaz Mein Support Mila
Hafte ke aghaz mein oil prices bullish momentum mein rahi, jahan supply-side risks dekhne ko mile. Russian crude production OPEC+ quota se neeche gir gayi, jo 8.962 million barrels per day tak chali gayi, jabke U.S. sanctions ki wajah se Russian oil shipments mein bottlenecks paida ho gaye. Iran bhi naye U.S. sanctions ki wajah se export restrictions ka samna kar raha tha, jo global supply tightness ki expectations ko reinforce kar raha tha.

In disruptions ke sath, technical strength ne traders ko encourage kiya ke crude prices ko upar push karein. WTI key moving averages ke upar chala gaya, jisse $74.94 per barrel ka test hone ka imkaan bana, jo pehle resistance ka kaam kar chuka tha. Magar optimism hafte ke akhir tak fade ho gaya jab demand concerns dominate karne lage.

Rising U.S. Inventories aur Hawkish Fed Oil Prices Par Pressure Daal Rahi Hai
Bearish sentiment midweek mein ziada ho gaya, jab U.S. crude inventories surge hui. American Petroleum Institute (API) ne 9.4 million barrels ka stockpile build report kiya, jo oversupply fears ko barhane laga. Halaanke gasoline aur distillate inventories gir gayi thi, magar crude build refinery demand mein kamzori ka signal de raha tha. Traders Energy Information Administration (EIA) ki taraf se official data ka intezar kar rahe the, magar initial numbers ne hi price support ko dampen kar diya.

Iske ilawa, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ne cautious economic outlook maintain rakha, jisse yeh indication mili ke near-term rate cuts ka imkaan kam hai. Higher borrowing costs economic activity ko slow karti hain, jo industrial aur consumer fuel consumption ko kam kar sakti hain. Market participants ab bhi inflation data par nazar rakh rahe hain, jo Fed ke policy stance ko influence kar sakti hai.

Ukraine Peace Talks Se Additional Supply Ka Risk
Ek potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal crude markets ke liye ek aur headwind bani. Reports ke mutabiq Russian President Vladimir Putin aur Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ne negotiations mein interest dikhaya, jabke former U.S. President Donald Trump bhi in talks ko initiate karne mein kirdar ada kar rahe hain. Agar koi resolution hota hai, toh Russian crude par sanctions lift ho sakti hain, jo global market mein ziada barrels shamil kar dega.

Is prospect ki wajah se Brent aur WTI prices par pressure aya, kyunki traders speculate kar rahe hain ke diplomatic breakthrough market mein additional supply flood kar sakta hai. Saath hi, International Energy Agency (IEA) ne indicate kiya ke Russia apni exports ko alternative trade routes ke zariye sustain kar sakta hai, jo sentiment ko mazid weigh kar raha hai.

Market Outlook: Bearish Bias Jab Tak Demand Strength Nahi Dikhati
Oil prices ab bhi pressure mein hain, jahan rising U.S. crude inventories, ek hawkish Fed, aur potential geopolitical resolutions supply-side risks ko barhane mein madadgar hain. Magar demand recovery kuch support zaroor de rahi hai.



Traders key technical levels par focus kar rahe hain:

• $70.80 ka support zone agar hold hota hai, toh bullish bias develop ho sakta hai.
• Agar price $69.55 se neeche break hoti hai, toh market aur weak ho sakta hai, jisse $64.78 ka next target ban sakta hai.

Agar naye bullish catalysts emerge nahi hote—jaise mazboot economic data ya naye supply disruptions—toh market defensive hi rehne ka imkaan hai. Traders ko Ukraine developments, Fed policy signals, aur refinery demand trends closely monitor karni chahiye taake market ke aglay direction ka andaaza ho sake.

WTI ki qeemat $70.00 se upar ihtiyaat ke saath barqarar hai, jab ke sarmaya karne wale Donald Trump aur Vladimir Putin ki mulaqat par ghehri nazar rakhe hue hain. Sarmaya bazar ke tajziya karne walon ka kehna hai ke agar Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan sulah hoti hai, toh iska asar Oil ki qeemat par manfi ho sakta hai. Yeh wajah hai ke traders filhal kisi bhi bara faisla lene se gurez kar rahe hain aur market mein stability ki kami nazar aa rahi hai.

Iske ilawa, OPEC ne apni mahana supply izafa ka jo mansuba banaya tha, us mein takheer hone ka imkaan hai. Yeh taweeq Oil ke traders ke liye ek aur aham factor ban sakti hai jo qeemat mein izafa ya kami ka sabab banegi. Supply aur demand ke beech ka taluq is waqt nafsiati pressure ka shikar hai, kyunki geopolitical halaat badalne ka imkaan hai.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), jo ke NYMEX futures mein shamil hai, Monday ki European session mein saat hafton ki sab se kam qeemat $70.15 se upar thoda stable hai, lekin abhi bhi uncertainty barqarar hai. Investors Russia-Ukraine ke aman muzakraat mein mazeed taraqqi ka intezar kar rahe hain aur kisi bhi naye update ka asar Oil ki qeemat par foran par sakta hai.

Filhal, Oil market ek aise daur se guzar rahi hai jahan geopolitical developments uski direction tay kar rahi hain. Agar Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan koi badi peshraft hoti hai, toh Oil ki qeemat mein tez girawat dekhi ja sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar OPEC supply izafa mein zyada taweeq karta hai, toh Oil ki qeemat barqarar ya mazeed stable reh sakti hai.

Crude oil ki qeemat Monday ko kuch behtar hoti nazar aayi, magar WTI ab bhi apne 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo takreeban $72.25 par waqia hai. Aakhri kuch dino mein oil prices ne bearish pressure mehsoos kiya, jo WTI ko $79.00 ke swing high se neeche le aaya. Iss girawat ke natije mein, prices $73.90 ke 200-day EMA se bhi neeche chali gayi, jo ek significant technical level tha.

Lekin filhal, qeematon mein mazeed girawat ka rujhan rukta nazar aa raha hai, aur WTI ke liye ek strong technical support level $70.00 ke thodi upar mojood hai. Yeh support level abhi tak oil prices ko ek limited range mein bandh rakh raha hai, jisse yeh andaza lagaya ja sakta hai ke WTI short-term mein sideways movement kar sakta hai.

Agar bulls momentum hasil karne mein kaamyab hote hain, toh WTI ke prices dobara $73.90 ke 200-day EMA ko test kar sakti hain, aur agar yeh level tod diya jaye, toh $75.00 aur uske baad $79.00 ka resistance level samne aa sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar bearish pressure barqarar rehta hai aur $70.00 ka support level toot jata hai, toh prices $68.00 ya us se neeche bhi ja sakti hain.

Filhal, oil traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke fundamentals aur geopolitical developments par nazar rakhein, kyunki yeh factors bhi prices ko mutasir kar sakte hain. OPEC policies, US crude oil inventory reports, aur global demand dynamics bhi WTI ke agle move ka taayun karne mein aham kirdar ada karenge.

Teen Hafton Se Musalsal Oil Prices Mein Kami


Teen hafton se tel ki qeematon mein musalsal kami dekhi ja rahi hai. Ye kami zyadatar Amreeki Saddar Donald Trump ki nai energy policies ki wajah se ho rahi hai. Bazaar in tabdiliyon par bohot tez react kar raha hai, jis wajah se oil prices mein utar charhao dekha gaya hai.

Saudi Arabia Ki Tel Ki Qeematon Mein Izafa


Jumay ke din, Saudi Arabia ne apne crude oil ki qeemat March ke liye barhayi, jis ki wajah se thoda izafa dekha gaya. Ye tabdili us waqt aayi jab Amreeka ne Iran ke crude oil exports par naye pabandiyan lagayi hain. Magar phir bhi, bazaar mein oil prices ka trend neeche ki taraf hi ja raha hai.



Aalami Bazaar Ka Rujhan


Tel ki qeematon mein jo halka izafa hua hai, usne musalsal girawat ke rujhan ko nahi badla. Is girawat ki ek badi wajah Amreeka mein tel ki zyada supply hai. Guzishta hafte, crude oil stocks mein bara izafa dekha gaya jo investors ke liye fikar ka sabab bana. Saddar Trump ne tel ki paidawar barhane ka irada bhi zahir kiya hai, jo market par mazeed pressure daal sakta hai.

Tel Ki Qeematon Mein Utar Charhao


Aakhri trading session mein, Amreeki crude oil ki qeemat 1.2% barh kar $71.29 per barrel tak pohanch gayi, halan ke ek waqt par ye $70.46 tak gir gayi thi. Isi tarah, Brent crude ki qeemat bhi 1.2% barh kar $75.08 per barrel tak chali gayi, jabke sabse kam $74.20 tak aayi. Magar, Jumeraat ko Amreeki crude oil 0.9% gir kar $70.44 ho gaya, jabke Brent crude 0.6% gir kar $74.14 per barrel par aa gaya.

Nai Saudi Crude Prices


Saudi Aramco ne apni light crude ki qeemat Asian bazaar ke liye $2.90 per barrel barha di hai. Is izafay ka sabab China aur India ka zyada talab karna hai, jo Asia ke sabse bade fuel consumers hain.

Amreeki Pabandiyan Aur Iran


Amreeka ne Iran ke crude oil exports par sakht pabandiyan laga di hain. Treasury Department ne un afraad aur oil tankers par karwai ki hai jo Iranian crude China bhej rahe thay. Ye pabandiyan duniya bhar ke oil bazaar ko aur bhi mushkilat mein daal rahi hain.

Hafte Bhar Ki Trading Ka Khulasa


Guzishta hafte, tel ki qeematein 2.55% gir gayin, jo bazaar ki mushkil surat-e-haal ko dikhata hai. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ke mutabiq, Amreeka ke crude stocks mein 8.7 million barrels ka izafa hua, jo analysts ke andazay (1.3 million barrels) se bohot zyada tha. Gasoline stocks bhi 2.2 million barrels barh gaye, jabke distillate stocks 5.5 million barrels kam ho gaye.

WTI Ki Qeemat Aur Bazaar Ki Soorat-e-Haal


West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil ki qeemat is waqt $70.00 se upar hai, magar bazaar mein ehtiyaat ka mahaul barqarar hai. Sarmayakaar Donald Trump aur Vladimir Putin ki mulaqat par nazar rakhe huye hain. Maahiron ka kehna hai ke agar Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan koi aman ka muahida hota hai, toh yeh tel ki qeematon par manfi asar daal sakta hai. Is wajah se tajir apne faislay karne mein ihtiyaat barat rahe hain, jo bazaar ki stability ko mutasir kar raha hai.

Geopolitical Waja Se Tel Ki Qeematon Par Asar


Russia aur Ukraine ka jari tanazah tel ki qeematon mein utar charhao ka sabab ban raha hai. Agar in dono mulkon ke darmiyan koi sulah hoti hai, toh tel ki supply barh sakti hai, jo ke qeematon mein kami ka sabab ban sakti hai. Isi wajah se tajiron ne “intezar aur dekho” ka rawaiya apnaya hua hai, taki wo behtar faislay le sakein.



OPEC Ki Supply Policy Aur Uske Asraat


OPEC bhi tel ki qeematon par baray asar dalta hai. Pehlay OPEC ne apni monthly supply barhane ka plan diya tha, magar ab lagta hai ke is mein late ho sakti hai. Agar yeh delay hota hai, toh yeh bhi tel ki qeematon ko mutasir kar sakta hai. Supply aur demand ka rishta abhi ek psychological pressure mein hai, jo geopolitical soorat-e-haal ke mutabiq tabdil ho sakta hai.

Bazaar Ki Stability Aur Sarmayakaron Ka Mafhoom


Aakhri trading session ke doran, WTI tel ki qeemat $70.15 par stable rahi, jo pichlay saat hafton ka sab se kam level hai. Magar, uncertainty ab bhi barqarar hai. Sarmayakaar Russia-Ukraine peace talks ke naye updates ka intezar kar rahe hain, kyunki har nai khabar tel ki qeematon par foran asar daal sakti hai.

Ainday Ka Imkaan Aur Mustaqbil Ki Trends


Agar Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan sulah hoti hai, toh tel ki qeemat tez gir sakti hai, kyunki supply chains normal ho jayengi aur production barh sakti hai. Doosri taraf, agar OPEC apni supply ko mazid delay karta hai, toh tel ki qeematon mein izafa bhi ho sakta hai ya woh stable reh sakti hain.

Nateeja


Mukhtasir taur par, WTI ki qeemat filhal geopolitics aur OPEC ki policy se baray tor par mutasir ho rahi hai. Tajir ehtiyaat se kaam le rahe hain, aur ainday ke tel bazaar ka daromadar Russia-Ukraine talks aur OPEC ke faislon par hoga. Sarmayakaron ko mutayyan aur hoshiyaar rehna hoga, kyunki soorat-e-haal kisi bhi waqt badal sakti hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Prices

International relationship kuch arsa se behtari ki taraf gamzan hai, jiss se kafi sari chezen badal gaye hen. American trade me Tuesday ke din global oil prices do mahinay ki kamzori se bahar nikalte hue barh gaye. Ye izafa short-covering aur Kazakhstan ki supply disruptions ke hawalay se paida hone wale concerns ki wajah se dekhne ko mila.
Traders baray ghoro fikr se un peace talks ka bhi tajziya kar rahe hain jo Saudi Arabia me US aur Russian officials ke darmiyan Ukraine ki jang khatam karne ke liye ho rahi hain.

Oil Current Prices

US crude futures 1.1% barh kar $72.00 per barrel tak pohanch gaye, jabke session-low $70.93 raha.

Brent oil bhi 1% se zyada izafa le kar $76.03 per barrel tak chala gaya, jabke session-low $74.94 raha.

Monday ke din, US crude 1.2% barha, jabke Brent 1.0% izafa dekhne me aaya, jo ke teen dino me doosri martaba munafa darj kar raha hai aur do mahinay ki lows se door ho raha hai.

Kazakhstan Oil Supplies

Ek drone hamla jo Russia ke southern ilaqay me hua, uski wajah se Kazakh crude supplies global markets tak pohanchne me disruptions ka samna karna pada aur exports bhi mutasir hue.

Ye hamla barhti hui tensions aur global supplies ki stability ke hawalay se paida hone wale concerns ko reflect karta hai, khaaskar jab ye pipelines Central Asia se European markets tak oil pohanchane me bohot aham kirdar ada karti hain.

Ek Russian official ne kaha ke aik Ukrainian drone ne ek Russian pipeline ko nishana banaya jo ke duniya ki 1% crude oil supply pump karta hai.

Is damage ki wajah se Kazakh oil supplies me 30% tak kami ho sakti hai aur isay theek karne me do mahinay tak lag sakte hain.

Peace Talks

Saudi Arabia me Russian aur US officials ke darmiyan Ukraine ki jang khatam karne aur ek compromise tak pohanchne ke liye peace talks ka aghaz ho chuka hai.

Agar peace deal tay ho jati hai, to US apni Russian energy exports par lagi pabandiyan hata sakta hai, jo global supplies me izafa kar sakti hai.

Crude Oil Market Ka Analysis

Crude oil prices is hafte ke liye neeche band hue, jo market me mix signals ko highlight karta hai. Geopolitical tensions me kami, US inventories me izafa aur Russia par sanctions relief ke imkanaat bearish asraat daal rahe hain, jabke supply disruptions aur kuch baraqi economies me strong demand in bearish asraat ka muqabla kar rahi hain.

Market ke fundamentals ek doosray ko balance kar chuke hain, jo ek neutral outlook ko zahir karta hai.

Agle chand dinon me crude oil prices ki direction geopolitical negotiations, US inventory data aur global trade policies ke naye updates par mabni hogi. Filhal, market ka sentiment neutral hai, jahan na to bullish aur na hi bearish forces kisi bhi taraf puri tarah haavi nazar aa rahi hain.

Technical Analysis

• Technically, market is waqt 50% levels ke aik joaray ko test kar rahi hai, jo is neutral stance ko support karta hai.
• Agar price $70.78 se upar barqarar rehti hai, to iska matlab hoga ke buyers market me mojood hain.
• Agar price $69.53 se neeche jati hai, to iska matlab hoga ke selling pressure barh raha hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Geopolitical Issues Clear Hone ki Waja se Crude Oil Prices Downfall Kar Rahi Hai

Crude oil market par apna ghalba barqarar nahi rakh pa rahi hai, q k market mein prices musasal downfall mein hai, aur iski main waja geopolitical issues kam hona hai. Crude oil ke prices hafta neeche band hue jabke geopolitical tensions kam hui aur U.S. crude stockpiles barh gaye. Light Crude Oil Futures $70.40 per settle hue, jo ke 0.44% neeche tha, jab Gaza ceasefire ne Middle East ka risk premium ghata diya aur investors Ukraine ke potential peace deal ka andaza laga rahe the. China ke researchers dwara ek naye coronavirus ka bats me daryaft hone ki reports bhi market me ehtiyat ka jazba barhane ka sabab bani.
U.S. crude oil inventories pichle hafte barh gayi refinery maintenance ki wajah se, jo ke bearish pressure aur barhane ka sabab bana. Energy Information Administration ne report diya ke inventory build aur U.S. oil aur natural gas rigs ki izafaati tadad agle hafte me supply growth ki nishani hai.

Imported (Key) Point:

• Crude oil ke prices neeche aaye jabke Middle East tensions kam hone aur U.S. stockpiles barhne se bearish market pressures barh gaye.
• Russia aur Kazakhstan me supply disruptions ne crude oil ko temporary support di, jabke global inventories barh rahi hain.
• Geopolitical uncertainty aur Russia ke possible sanctions relief crude oil market ka sentiment foran badal sakti hai.
• U.S. aur China se mazboot demand bearish pressures ko balance karne me madad de rahi hai, jo ke market outlook ko neutral banata hai.
• Market naye catalysts ka intezar kar raha hai jabke supply disruptions aur strong demand rising oil inventories aur trade policy risks se takra rahi hain.

Russia aur Kazakhstan ki Supply Disruptions Market ko Support Deti Hain
Jab bearish factors dominant rahe, supply disruptions ne crude prices ko kuch had tak support diya. Ukraine ke drone attack ne Russia ke Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pumping station pe 30-40% tak oil flow reduce kar diya, jo ke market se takreeban 380,000 barrels per day hata sakta hai. Kazakhstan ne iske bawajood record-high oil volumes maintain kiye, lekin is output ki sustainability par uncertainty barqarar rahi.

U.S. me bhi sakt sardi ka asar North Dakota ke production pe para, jisse output 150,000 barrels per day tak neeche chali gayi. Yeh supply-side challenges rising inventories ke bearish asar ko kuch had tak offset kar sake.

Geopolitical Uncertainty aur Trade Policies Market Complexity Barhate Hain
Market ab bhi uncertain hai jab traders Russian sanctions ke possible changes ko monitor kar rahe hain. U.S. aur Russia ke darmiyan Saudi Arabia me chalne wali diplomatic discussions ne speculation barhaya ke shayad sanctions relief ho sakti hai, jo ke market me additional Russian oil supply lane ka sabab ban sakti hai.

Iske ilawa, U.S. President Donald Trump ke naye global industry tariffs ka tajwez ek aur economic headwind le kar aya jo ke Europe aur China jaise important oil consumers ke economic activity ko nuksan pohncha sakti hai.

U.S. aur China ki Strong Demand Bullish Potential Paida Kar Rahi Hai
Challenges ke bawajood, demand outlook supportive rahi. Global oil consumption February 19 tak 103.4 million barrels per day tak pohonch gayi, jo ke 1.4 million bpd ka izafa tha, JPMorgan analysts ke mutabiq. China ki industrial activity aur U.S. me sardi barhne se demand aur barhne ki umeed hai.

U.S. refineries me seasonal maintenance ki wajah se processing levels neeche aaye, magar gasoline aur distillate stocks ke drawdowns ne supply picture ko balance kar diya. Analysts ne yeh bhi kaha ke Russia-Ukraine ke jaldi peace deal hone ki umeed kam hone se crude buying interest wapas aya hai.

Market Forecast (Technical Analysis)
Crude oil prices hafta neeche band hue, jo market ke mixed signals ko highlight karta hai. Geopolitical tensions me kami, U.S. inventories ka izafa aur Russia ke sanctions relief ke imkanaat bearish headwinds paida kar rahe hain, jabke supply disruptions aur key economies ki mazboot demand isko balance kar rahi hain.

Fundamentals ek doosre ko largely neutralize kar chuke hain, jo ke ek balanced market outlook ki nishani hai. Crude oil prices ka near-term direction geopolitical negotiations, U.S. inventory data, aur global trade policies ke naye developments par depend karega. Filhal market sentiment neutral lag raha hai, jisme bullish ya bearish koi bhi side wazeha taur par dominant nahi hai.

Technical taur par, market filhal 50% levels ko test kar raha hai, jo ke neutral stance ko support deta hai. Agar prices $70.78 se upar rehti hain to yeh buyers ki mojoodgi dikhayengi, jabke $69.53 se neeche ka move selling pressure barhne ki nishani hogi.

WTI Ke Qeemat Aur Market Ke Halat


West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil ki qeemat is waqt $70.00 se upar hai, magar market mein ehtiyat ka mahaul hai. Sarmayakar Donald Trump aur Vladimir Putin ki mulakat par nazar rakhe hue hain. Tajziya karon ka kehna hai ke agar Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan koi aman ka moahida hota hai, to is ka asar tel ki qeematon par par sakta hai. Is wajah se traders bade faislay karne se pehle soch samajh rahe hain, jo market ki stability ko mutasir kar raha hai.

Geopolitical Waja Se Tel Ki Qeemat Par Asar


Russia aur Ukraine ka jari tanazah tel ki qeemat par bara asar daal raha hai. Agar dono mumalik ke darmiyan koi aman ka raasta nikalta hai, to analysts ka kehna hai ke tel ki supply barh sakti hai, jo qeemat mein kami ka sabab ban sakti hai. Isi liye tajir intizar kar rahe hain ke aage kya hota hai, kyunki har naye update ka asar foran tel ki market par hota hai.

OPEC Ki Supply Policy Aur Asraat


OPEC bhi tel ki market ke liye aik ahem kirdar ada kar raha hai. Pehle OPEC ne apni tel ki supply barhane ka plan diya tha, magar ab is mein deri hone ka imkaan hai. Agar supply ka yeh barhawa delay hota hai, to yeh bhi tel ki qeemat par asar daal sakta hai. Demand aur supply ka taluq is waqt geopolitical tensions ki waja se pressure mein hai.




Market Ki Stability Aur Sarmayakaron Ka Ravayya


Aakhri trading session ke mutabiq, WTI ki qeemat $70.15 ke aas paas hai, jo aakhri saat hafton ki sab se kam level hai. Magar market abhi bhi uncertainty ka shikar hai. Sarmayakar Russia-Ukraine peace talks ka intezar kar rahe hain, kyunki in developments ka asar foran tel ki qeemat par ho sakta hai.

Mustaqbil Ke Imkaanat Aur Trends


Agar Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan koi baray pehmane par peace talks successful hoti hain, to tel ki qeemat gir sakti hai, kyunki supply chains normal ho jayengi. Dusri taraf, agar OPEC ne supply barhane ka faisla delay kiya, to tel ki qeemat barqarar reh sakti hai ya phir barh bhi sakti hai.

Nateeja


Filhal, WTI ki qeemat geopolitics aur OPEC ke faislon se mutasir ho rahi hai. Traders abhi bhi ehtiyat barat rahe hain, aur market ka future inhi factors par mabni hoga. Sarmayakaron ko har naye update se waqif rehna hoga, kyunki international relations aur production strategies kisi bhi waqt badal sakti hain.

فروری 25 2025 کے لیے تیل کی پیشن گوئی

خام تیل (cl) نئے فیوچر کنٹریکٹ کے آغاز کے بعد سے، wti خام تیل 69.74 کی سپورٹ لیول سے بڑھ گیا ہے، جو اب 71.44 سے اوپر بریک آؤٹ کا خطرہ ہے۔

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قیمت اور آسیلیٹر کے درمیان ایک دوہرا کنورجنس بھی بن گیا ہے، جو تجویز کرتا ہے کہ تیل 73.66 کے قریب ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کو نشانہ بنا رہا ہے، جو 11 فروری کی اونچائی کے ساتھ موافق ہے۔ اس سطح سے اوپر ایک مضبوط بریک آؤٹ اگلی مزاحمتی سطحوں پر مزید چیلنجوں کی راہ ہموار کرے گا: 75.16 اور 75.67۔

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ایچ -٤ چارٹ پر، 71.44 ریزسٹنس لیول کو ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے تقویت ملتی ہے، جبکہ مارلن آسیلیٹر اب بھی ڈاؤن ٹرینڈ زون میں رہتا ہے۔ یہ 71.44 کو ایک اہم سطح بناتا ہے، کیونکہ اس کا بریک آؤٹ، مارلن کے مثبت علاقے میں منتقل ہونے کے ساتھ، تیل کے لیے ایک پرامید تیزی کے منظر نامے کی تصدیق کر سکتا ہے۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Market Analysis

Agar hum is chart ka analysis karein to yeh saaf lag raha hai ke market is waqt bearish trend mein hai. Current price $69.08 par hai, jo recent girawat ko show kar raha hai. Pehle January ke end aur February ke start mein price stable tha, lekin February ke second half se downward trend dekhne ko mila hai.
Price Action aur Moving Averages:
Chart mein price neeche ki taraf move kar raha hai aur moving averages bhi downward trend ko confirm karte hain. Yeh ek negative signal hai, jo market ki girawat ko aur mazboot banata hai. Price ke liye ab $69 ek critical support level hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai to agla support $68 ya $67 par ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price wapas upar ki taraf jata hai to resistance $71 aur $72 ke qareeb ho sakta hai.
Stochastic Oscillator Analysis:
Chart ke neeche Stochastic Oscillator overbought zone (80 ke upar) se neeche aa raha hai. Yeh signal deta hai ke selling pressure barh raha hai. Agar yeh oscillator 20 ke neeche aata hai to oversold zone create hoga, jo market ke wapas upar jaane ka signal ho sakta hai. Lekin filhal yeh lagta hai ke market girawat continue karegi.
Kya Karna Chahiye?
Agar aap short-term trader hain, to selling opportunities dekhni chahiye jab price resistance ke qareeb ho. Lekin agar aap long-term investor hain, to yeh girawat ek moka ho sakta hai buying ka, magar sirf tab jab price oversold zone mein ho aur recovery ke clear signals milen.
Risk Management:
Yeh baat yaad rakhein ke trading hamesha risk ke saath hoti hai. Is liye bina proper planning aur analysis ke trade karna nuqsan ka sabab ban sakta hai. Risk ko manage karna aur stop-loss levels ka istemal zaroori hai Yeh analysis aapke liye ek roadmap ho sakta hai, lekin final decision lene se pehle apne research ko zaroor complete karein!

WTI oil ki qeemat dabao ka shikar hai, jisme supply barhne ki umeed aur kamzor demand outlook ka market par gehray asraat nazar aa rahe hain. Oil prices par mazeed pressure ka ek bada sabab yeh bhi hai ke Russia-Ukraine ke darmiyan aman muahide ki umeed barh rahi hai, jo geopolitical tensions ko kam kar sakti hai. Agar yeh muahida hota hai, toh Russia par lagi hui sanctions me kuch narmi ho sakti hai, jo oil supply ko barha sakti hai aur prices par neeche ka pressure dal sakti hai.

Iske ilawa, President Trump ne ek aur aham qadam uthate hue Venezuela me Chevron Corp. ki oil license ko khatam karne ka plan announce kiya hai. Yeh faisla Venezuelan oil exports par asar dal sakta hai, lekin overall market sentiment par iska impact limited ho sakta hai, kyunki supply factors already oil prices ko neeche le ja rahe hain.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price filhal apne do-mahine ke neeche tareen level $68.29 ke kareeb hai, jo February 26 ko record kiya gaya tha. Thursday ke Asian trading hours me WTI $68.70 per barrel ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai. Yeh numbers dikhate hain ke crude oil prices abhi bhi pressure me hain, jisme supply ke izafa aur demand ke bearish outlook ka bara haath hai.

Agar market me supply side par koi unexpected disruption nahi hoti, toh oil prices ka downtrend barqarar reh sakta hai. Investors ab agle major support levels aur potential policy changes par focus kar rahe hain, jo WTI ke future price action ka rukh tay kar sakte hain.

Smart Money Concept (SMC) Aur Crude Oil Trading

Market Structure


Market ka overall structure analyze karein taake trends, support aur resistance levels ko samajh sakein. Aise patterns dekhein jo bada players (smart money) ki accumulation ya manipulation ko zahir karein.

Volume Analysis


Volume spikes par tawajju dein, kyunki yeh institutional buying ya selling ka ishara ho sakti hain. Agar price barhne ke dauraan high volume ho, toh yeh accumulation ho sakti hai, jabke price girne par high volume distribution ka pata deti hai.

Order Flow


Order flow monitor karein taake samajh sakein ke bade traders kaise positions le rahe hain. Badi orders ka analysis karein aur dekhein price kis tarah react kar raha hai.




Liquidity Zones


Un areas ko identify karein jahan liquidity zyada ho, kyunki yeh wo points hote hain jahan smart money enter ya exit kar sakta hai. Yeh zones strong support aur resistance ke tor par kaam karte hain.

News Aur Events


Economic reports, geopolitical events, aur OPEC ke announcements par nazar rakhein, kyunki yeh crude oil ke prices ko bohot mutasir kar sakti hain. Smart money aksar in events se pehle apni positioning set kar leta hai.

COT Reports


Commitments of Traders (COT) report ko analyze karein taake futures market mein mukhtalif traders ki positions ka andaza ho sake. Isse yeh samajhne mein madad milegi ke commercial hedgers ya speculators kis taraf positions le rahe hain.

Market Sentiment


Sentiment indicators aur news analysis ke zariye overall market ka jazba samajhne ki koshish karein. Smart money aksar prevailing sentiment ke khilaf position leta hai.

Technical Analysis


Technical indicators aur chart patterns ka istemal karein taake smart money activity ke base par entry aur exit points identify kar sakein.

Aj Ke Din Crude Oil Mein SMC Ka Istemaal

• Recent price action aur volume data ko review karein.
• Koi bhi ahem news ya reports analyze karein jo supply aur demand ko affect kar sakti hain.
• COT report ka pattern dekhein taake institutional traders ki positioning ka pata chale.
• Key support aur resistance levels ko samajhne ki koshish karein jo historical price action aur current market dynamics par base karte hain.

Nateeja


In tamam elements ko mila kar trading decisions ko behtar banaya ja sakta hai, lekin risk management ko hamesha mad e nazar rakhein. Kisi bhi naye strategy ko real capital invest karne se pehle demo account par test karna behtareen tareeqa hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Ziada Supply se Crude Oil Prices Fall Kar Rahi Hai

Crude oil k prices market mein aik stable position par a chuki hai aur iss mein mazeed kami ki bhi gunjayesh hai. Global oil prices European trade me Friday ko gir gaye, dobara nuksan uthate hue aur 11-hafton ki kamiyon ki taraf badhne lage. Yeh September 2024 ke baad ka sabse bara mahana nuksan hai, Trump ke naye tariffs aur unke global economy par asar ki fikr barhne ki wajah se.
Prices par yeh bhi dabao hai ke Iraq Kurdistan se apni crude exports dobara shuru karne wala hai, jo ke pichle hafte US crude stocks me achanak kami ke bawajood ziyada aham samjha ja raha hai.

Crude Oil Current Prices
US crude aaj 1.1% gira aur $69.2 per barrel tak aa gaya, jab ke session high $70.145 tha.

Brent 0.9% gira aur $72.61 per barrel par aa gaya, jab ke session high $73.41 tha.

Thursday ko US crude 1.9% bada, jab ke Brent 1.5% barha, jo ke teen din ke nuksan ke baad pehli dafa faida tha aur 11-hafton ki kamiyon se thora door gaya.

Oil prices tab barhne lage jab US ne Venezuelan oil industry par naye sanctions lagaye, jab ke US crude stocks bhi unexpected tor par gir gaye.

Mahana Business
February me global oil prices 5.5% gir chuki hain, jo ke teen mahine me pehli martaba nuksan hai aur September ke baad ka sabse bara hai.

Trump ke Tariffs
Trump Mexico aur Canada par naye tariffs lagane ki tayyari kar raha hai, aur EU aur doosre mulkon ko bhi naye tariffs ka dhamaka de raha hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve par inflationary pressure barh raha hai aur ahtiyaatan interest rates ko barqarar rakha ja raha hai.

Muashi tajziya karne walon ke mutabiq Trump ke tariffs global growth ko nuksan pohncha sakte hain, jo ke tel ki demand ko bhi kam kar dega.

Iraqi Supply
Baghdad ne ek official bayan me kaha hai ke Kurdistan region se Turkish pipeline ke zariye crude exports dobara shuru ki ja rahi hain.

Pehle marahil me Iraq 185 hazar bpd export karega, jo dheere dheere barhaya jaye ga.

Reuters ke mutabiq OPEC+ bhi April me oil production barhane ka soch raha hai, jab ke Venezuelan, Iranian, aur Russian oil par US sanctions jaari hain.

US Stocks
Energy Information Administration ke mutabiq US crude stocks me 2.3 million barrels ki kami aayi hai, aur ab total 430.2 million barrels reh gaye hain, jab ke tajziya karne wale 1.7 million barrels ka izafa expect kar rahe the.

Gasoline stocks 0.4 million barrels barh kar 248.3 million barrels ho gaye, jab ke distillate stocks 3.9 million barrels barh kar 120.5 million barrels tak pohonch gaye.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Light sweet crude oil market Friday ke trading session me thoda neeche gira, magar aisa lagta hai ke market kuch dair tak range-bound reh sakti hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke traders closely dekhenge ke market me $67 ka floor barqarar rahta hai ya nahi.

Yeh level kafi arse se important raha hai, aur lagta hai ke kisi na kisi waqt traders ko aik long-term faisla lena hi hoga. Agar market is level ka floor barqarar rakhta hai, to yeh bhi dekha jayega ke kab traders isay value ke nazariye se dekhenge. Agar hum $72.50 level tod kar upar chale gaye, to mujhe lagta hai ke market ek dum se tez ho sakta hai.

مارچ 3 2025 کے لیے تیل کی پیشن گوئی

جمعہ کو تیل کی قیمتیں 69.74 کی سطح سے اوپر مستحکم ہوگئیں۔ آج پیسفک سیشن کے دوران، انہوں نے جمعرات کی چوٹی کو عبور کر لیا، اور اب قیمت کو 71.44 تک پہنچنے سے روکنے میں کوئی رکاوٹ نہیں ہے۔



اس مقام پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن زیرو لائن تک پہنچ جائے گی، جو اس مزاحمت سے معمولی اصلاح کا باعث بن سکتی ہے۔ اگر قیمت اس سطح سے ٹوٹ جاتی ہے، تو یہ 73.66 پر مضبوط مزاحمت کی طرف بڑھ سکتی ہے، جو کہ ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن اور 11 فروری سے بلندی کے ساتھ موافق ہے۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت جارحانہ طور پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن پر مزاحمت کی جانچ کر رہی ہے، فی الحال 70.80 پر ہے۔ رجائیت کو جزوی طور پر مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن صفر لائن سے الٹ جانے سے تقویت ملتی ہے۔ 70.80 سے اوپر کا بریک آؤٹ ممکنہ طور پر 71.44 تک ترقی کو بڑھا دے گا، جس کے بعد ہم اس سطح سے اوپر استحکام کی توقع کرتے ہیں۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Oil Prices Mein Kami Supply Barhney Ki Waja Se

Current Market Overview


Crude oil ki qeemat market mein stable hain, aur mazeed girawat ka imkaan hai. Jumma ko European trading ke doran global oil prices gir gayi, aur 11 hafton ki neechey ki taraf chal pari. Yeh girawat September 2024 ke baad se sabse bara monthly loss hai, jo President Trump ke naye tariffs aur global economy par unke asrat ki waja se hai.

Factors Influencing Prices


Prices ki girawat ki aik waja Iraq ka Kurdistan se crude exports ko dobara shuru karna hai. Yeh faisla uske bawajood aaya hai keh pichlay haftay U.S. crude stocks mein unexpected kami dekhi gayi.

Current Crude Oil Prices


Abhi ke liye, U.S. crude 1.1% gir chuki hai aur $69.20 per barrel par settle hui hai, jab keh session ke doran $70.145 tak pohchi thi. Brent crude bhi 0.9% gir kar $72.61 per barrel par aa gayi, aur session high $73.41 tha. Pehlay, Jumeraat ko U.S. crude 1.9% barhi thi aur Brent 1.5% barhi thi, jo teen din ki losses ke baad pehli gain thi.



Recent Market Movements


Oil prices tab barhna shuru hui jab U.S. ne Venezuelan oil industry par naye sanctions lagaye aur U.S. crude stocks mein unexpected kami dekhi gayi. February mein global oil prices 5.5% gir gayi thi, jo teen maheenay mein pehli loss thi aur September ke baad sabse bari thi.

Impact of Trump's Tariffs


President Trump Mexico aur Canada par naye tariffs laganey ki tayari kar rahe hain, aur EU aur doosray mulkon par bhi mazeed tariffs lagane ka soch rahe hain. Is se Federal Reserve par inflationary pressures barh rahe hain, aur expected hai keh interest rates ko stable rakha jaye. Maashi tajziya karon ka kehna hai keh Trump ke tariffs global growth ko nuksan pohcha saktay hain, jiski waja se oil ki demand bhi kam ho sakti hai.

Iraqi Supply Resumption


Iraqi hukoomat ne officially elan kiya hai keh Kurdistan region se crude exports dobara shuru hongay Turkish pipeline ke zariye. Ibtida mein Iraq 185,000 barrels per day (bpd) export karega, aur dheere dheere is mein izafa kiya jaye ga. Reuters ke mutabiq, OPEC+ bhi April mein oil production barhane ka soch raha hai, halan keh U.S. abhi bhi Venezuelan, Iranian aur Russian oil par sanctions lagaye hue hai.

U.S. Crude Stocks Decline


Energy Information Administration (EIA) ne report kiya hai keh U.S. crude stocks mein 2.3 million barrels ki kami aayi hai, jis se total 430.2 million barrels reh gayi hai. Analysts ne 1.7 million barrels ki izafa ki umeed ki thi. Gasoline stocks 0.4 million barrels barh kar 248.3 million barrels par pohch gayi hain aur distillate stocks 3.9 million barrels barh kar 120.5 million barrels hogayi hain.

Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil


Jumma ke trading session ke doran light sweet crude oil market mein thodi girawat dekhi gayi. Aisa lagta hai keh market kuch waqt ke liye range-bound reh sakti hai. Traders dekh rahe hain keh kya $67 ka level support floor ke taur par barqarar reh payega. Yeh level kaafi arsay se significant raha hai, aur traders ko aakhirkar aik long-term faisla lena hoga. Agar market is support ko barqarar rakhti hai, tou dekhnay ka hai keh traders is ki value ko kis tarah perceive karte hain. Agar prices $72.50 level se uper break karti hain, tou market mein tezi se upward movement ka imkaan hai.