سی ایل/خام تیل کی قیمتیں اور تجزیہ

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Crude Oil Prices Uncertainty Main Bearish Correction Kar Rahen Hen

Crude oil prices beroni awamel aur halat se bohut jaldi mutasir hone wala commodity ya energy stock hai. Pichlay hafte crude oil markets mein significant swings dekhne ko mili, jo supply concerns, geopolitical developments, aur demand expectations ki shifting se driven thi. Hafte ke aghaz mein Russian aur Iranian exports ki tightening se bullish momentum mila, magar akhir tak bearish pressure barhta gaya, jo U.S. crude stockpiles ke izafay, hawkish Federal Reserve policy, aur Ukraine peace talks ke potential breakthroughs se aya. Ab traders is baat ka jaiza le rahe hain ke demand recovery kia in risks ko offset kar sakti hai ya nahi.
Key Points:

• Oil prices volatility ka samna kar rahi hain—supply risks rising U.S. stockpiles ke khilaf hain. Kia demand recovery ek gehri girawat ko roak sakti hai?
• Russian aur Iranian supply cuts se shuru mein gains mile, magar bearish pressure U.S. crude stockpiles aur hawkish Fed ki wajah se barh gaya.
• Ukraine peace talks ne yeh fears paida kiye hain ke Russian sanctions lift ho sakte hain, jo market mein additional crude supply flood kar sakta hai.
• JPMorgan ke mutabiq global oil demand 103.4M bpd tak barh chuki hai, magar economic concerns aur Fed policy future price gains ko cap kar sakti hai.
• WTI crude key support $70.80 par test kar raha hai; agar price $69.55 se neeche break hoti hai, toh $64.78 tak girne ka imkaan hai.

Demand Recovery Ne Limited Support Faraham Kiya
Bearish developments ke bawajood kuch factors ne near-term support diya. Oil demand resilience dikhayi gayi, jahan JPMorgan analysts ne report kiya ke global consumption 103.4 million barrels per day tak barh gayi, jo pichle saal se 1.4 million barrels ka izafa hai. February mein mobility aur heating fuel demand bhi expectations se ziada mazboot rahi, jo supply concerns ke against ek counterbalance bana.

Iske ilawa, trade war fears mein kami ne risk sentiment ko halka sa uplift diya. Biden administration ne naye reciprocal tariffs implement karne mein dair ki, jo global trade slowdown ke fears ko temporarily kam karne mein madadgar raha. Magar uncertainty ab bhi barqarar hai, kyunki naye tariff recommendations April 1 tak expected hain, jo crude demand ko affect kar sakti hain.

Supply Constraints Se Oil Prices Ko Aghaz Mein Support Mila
Hafte ke aghaz mein oil prices bullish momentum mein rahi, jahan supply-side risks dekhne ko mile. Russian crude production OPEC+ quota se neeche gir gayi, jo 8.962 million barrels per day tak chali gayi, jabke U.S. sanctions ki wajah se Russian oil shipments mein bottlenecks paida ho gaye. Iran bhi naye U.S. sanctions ki wajah se export restrictions ka samna kar raha tha, jo global supply tightness ki expectations ko reinforce kar raha tha.

In disruptions ke sath, technical strength ne traders ko encourage kiya ke crude prices ko upar push karein. WTI key moving averages ke upar chala gaya, jisse $74.94 per barrel ka test hone ka imkaan bana, jo pehle resistance ka kaam kar chuka tha. Magar optimism hafte ke akhir tak fade ho gaya jab demand concerns dominate karne lage.

Rising U.S. Inventories aur Hawkish Fed Oil Prices Par Pressure Daal Rahi Hai
Bearish sentiment midweek mein ziada ho gaya, jab U.S. crude inventories surge hui. American Petroleum Institute (API) ne 9.4 million barrels ka stockpile build report kiya, jo oversupply fears ko barhane laga. Halaanke gasoline aur distillate inventories gir gayi thi, magar crude build refinery demand mein kamzori ka signal de raha tha. Traders Energy Information Administration (EIA) ki taraf se official data ka intezar kar rahe the, magar initial numbers ne hi price support ko dampen kar diya.

Iske ilawa, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ne cautious economic outlook maintain rakha, jisse yeh indication mili ke near-term rate cuts ka imkaan kam hai. Higher borrowing costs economic activity ko slow karti hain, jo industrial aur consumer fuel consumption ko kam kar sakti hain. Market participants ab bhi inflation data par nazar rakh rahe hain, jo Fed ke policy stance ko influence kar sakti hai.

Ukraine Peace Talks Se Additional Supply Ka Risk
Ek potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal crude markets ke liye ek aur headwind bani. Reports ke mutabiq Russian President Vladimir Putin aur Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ne negotiations mein interest dikhaya, jabke former U.S. President Donald Trump bhi in talks ko initiate karne mein kirdar ada kar rahe hain. Agar koi resolution hota hai, toh Russian crude par sanctions lift ho sakti hain, jo global market mein ziada barrels shamil kar dega.

Is prospect ki wajah se Brent aur WTI prices par pressure aya, kyunki traders speculate kar rahe hain ke diplomatic breakthrough market mein additional supply flood kar sakta hai. Saath hi, International Energy Agency (IEA) ne indicate kiya ke Russia apni exports ko alternative trade routes ke zariye sustain kar sakta hai, jo sentiment ko mazid weigh kar raha hai.

Market Outlook: Bearish Bias Jab Tak Demand Strength Nahi Dikhati
Oil prices ab bhi pressure mein hain, jahan rising U.S. crude inventories, ek hawkish Fed, aur potential geopolitical resolutions supply-side risks ko barhane mein madadgar hain. Magar demand recovery kuch support zaroor de rahi hai.



Traders key technical levels par focus kar rahe hain:

• $70.80 ka support zone agar hold hota hai, toh bullish bias develop ho sakta hai.
• Agar price $69.55 se neeche break hoti hai, toh market aur weak ho sakta hai, jisse $64.78 ka next target ban sakta hai.

Agar naye bullish catalysts emerge nahi hote—jaise mazboot economic data ya naye supply disruptions—toh market defensive hi rehne ka imkaan hai. Traders ko Ukraine developments, Fed policy signals, aur refinery demand trends closely monitor karni chahiye taake market ke aglay direction ka andaaza ho sake.

WTI ki qeemat $70.00 se upar ihtiyaat ke saath barqarar hai, jab ke sarmaya karne wale Donald Trump aur Vladimir Putin ki mulaqat par ghehri nazar rakhe hue hain. Sarmaya bazar ke tajziya karne walon ka kehna hai ke agar Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan sulah hoti hai, toh iska asar Oil ki qeemat par manfi ho sakta hai. Yeh wajah hai ke traders filhal kisi bhi bara faisla lene se gurez kar rahe hain aur market mein stability ki kami nazar aa rahi hai.

Iske ilawa, OPEC ne apni mahana supply izafa ka jo mansuba banaya tha, us mein takheer hone ka imkaan hai. Yeh taweeq Oil ke traders ke liye ek aur aham factor ban sakti hai jo qeemat mein izafa ya kami ka sabab banegi. Supply aur demand ke beech ka taluq is waqt nafsiati pressure ka shikar hai, kyunki geopolitical halaat badalne ka imkaan hai.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), jo ke NYMEX futures mein shamil hai, Monday ki European session mein saat hafton ki sab se kam qeemat $70.15 se upar thoda stable hai, lekin abhi bhi uncertainty barqarar hai. Investors Russia-Ukraine ke aman muzakraat mein mazeed taraqqi ka intezar kar rahe hain aur kisi bhi naye update ka asar Oil ki qeemat par foran par sakta hai.

Filhal, Oil market ek aise daur se guzar rahi hai jahan geopolitical developments uski direction tay kar rahi hain. Agar Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan koi badi peshraft hoti hai, toh Oil ki qeemat mein tez girawat dekhi ja sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar OPEC supply izafa mein zyada taweeq karta hai, toh Oil ki qeemat barqarar ya mazeed stable reh sakti hai.

Crude oil ki qeemat Monday ko kuch behtar hoti nazar aayi, magar WTI ab bhi apne 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo takreeban $72.25 par waqia hai. Aakhri kuch dino mein oil prices ne bearish pressure mehsoos kiya, jo WTI ko $79.00 ke swing high se neeche le aaya. Iss girawat ke natije mein, prices $73.90 ke 200-day EMA se bhi neeche chali gayi, jo ek significant technical level tha.

Lekin filhal, qeematon mein mazeed girawat ka rujhan rukta nazar aa raha hai, aur WTI ke liye ek strong technical support level $70.00 ke thodi upar mojood hai. Yeh support level abhi tak oil prices ko ek limited range mein bandh rakh raha hai, jisse yeh andaza lagaya ja sakta hai ke WTI short-term mein sideways movement kar sakta hai.

Agar bulls momentum hasil karne mein kaamyab hote hain, toh WTI ke prices dobara $73.90 ke 200-day EMA ko test kar sakti hain, aur agar yeh level tod diya jaye, toh $75.00 aur uske baad $79.00 ka resistance level samne aa sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar bearish pressure barqarar rehta hai aur $70.00 ka support level toot jata hai, toh prices $68.00 ya us se neeche bhi ja sakti hain.

Filhal, oil traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke fundamentals aur geopolitical developments par nazar rakhein, kyunki yeh factors bhi prices ko mutasir kar sakte hain. OPEC policies, US crude oil inventory reports, aur global demand dynamics bhi WTI ke agle move ka taayun karne mein aham kirdar ada karenge.

Teen Hafton Se Musalsal Oil Prices Mein Kami


Teen hafton se tel ki qeematon mein musalsal kami dekhi ja rahi hai. Ye kami zyadatar Amreeki Saddar Donald Trump ki nai energy policies ki wajah se ho rahi hai. Bazaar in tabdiliyon par bohot tez react kar raha hai, jis wajah se oil prices mein utar charhao dekha gaya hai.

Saudi Arabia Ki Tel Ki Qeematon Mein Izafa


Jumay ke din, Saudi Arabia ne apne crude oil ki qeemat March ke liye barhayi, jis ki wajah se thoda izafa dekha gaya. Ye tabdili us waqt aayi jab Amreeka ne Iran ke crude oil exports par naye pabandiyan lagayi hain. Magar phir bhi, bazaar mein oil prices ka trend neeche ki taraf hi ja raha hai.



Aalami Bazaar Ka Rujhan


Tel ki qeematon mein jo halka izafa hua hai, usne musalsal girawat ke rujhan ko nahi badla. Is girawat ki ek badi wajah Amreeka mein tel ki zyada supply hai. Guzishta hafte, crude oil stocks mein bara izafa dekha gaya jo investors ke liye fikar ka sabab bana. Saddar Trump ne tel ki paidawar barhane ka irada bhi zahir kiya hai, jo market par mazeed pressure daal sakta hai.

Tel Ki Qeematon Mein Utar Charhao


Aakhri trading session mein, Amreeki crude oil ki qeemat 1.2% barh kar $71.29 per barrel tak pohanch gayi, halan ke ek waqt par ye $70.46 tak gir gayi thi. Isi tarah, Brent crude ki qeemat bhi 1.2% barh kar $75.08 per barrel tak chali gayi, jabke sabse kam $74.20 tak aayi. Magar, Jumeraat ko Amreeki crude oil 0.9% gir kar $70.44 ho gaya, jabke Brent crude 0.6% gir kar $74.14 per barrel par aa gaya.

Nai Saudi Crude Prices


Saudi Aramco ne apni light crude ki qeemat Asian bazaar ke liye $2.90 per barrel barha di hai. Is izafay ka sabab China aur India ka zyada talab karna hai, jo Asia ke sabse bade fuel consumers hain.

Amreeki Pabandiyan Aur Iran


Amreeka ne Iran ke crude oil exports par sakht pabandiyan laga di hain. Treasury Department ne un afraad aur oil tankers par karwai ki hai jo Iranian crude China bhej rahe thay. Ye pabandiyan duniya bhar ke oil bazaar ko aur bhi mushkilat mein daal rahi hain.

Hafte Bhar Ki Trading Ka Khulasa


Guzishta hafte, tel ki qeematein 2.55% gir gayin, jo bazaar ki mushkil surat-e-haal ko dikhata hai. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ke mutabiq, Amreeka ke crude stocks mein 8.7 million barrels ka izafa hua, jo analysts ke andazay (1.3 million barrels) se bohot zyada tha. Gasoline stocks bhi 2.2 million barrels barh gaye, jabke distillate stocks 5.5 million barrels kam ho gaye.