سی ایل/خام تیل کی قیمتیں اور تجزیہ

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Rally ko Resistance ka Samna, Downside Risks Nazar Aa Rahe Hain

Crude oil ne Budh ke high $65.32 tak $55.23 ke recent trend low se $10.08 ya 18.3% ka rally mukammal kiya. Is ke baad, sellers ne din ke baaqi hisse mein control le liya, jisse ek bearish engulfing pattern bana. Yeh risk barhata hai ke crude oil is hafta ke high ko dobara challenge karne se pehle mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai. Mangal ko shuruati tezi ko 20-Day MA, jo ab $64.48 par hai, ke aaspaas resistance ka samna hua. Is ke ilawa, ek purana long-term support zone, jo ab potential resistance hai, bhi successfully test hua. Yeh range $65.40 se $65.98 tak hai.



Bearish Inside Day Banta Hai

Aaj, Thursday, crude oil ne consolidation ki, ek inside day banaya jiska high $63.73 aur low $62.40 tha. Din se kuch kamzori ke isharay milte hain. Note karen ke din ka range Budh ke range ke lower half mein hai, aur is waqt, crude oil Budh ke range ke halfway point se neeche trade kar raha hai aur aisa lagta hai ke yeh relatively bearish position mein close hoga. Is ke ilawa, din ka high May 2023 ke ek significant price level (dashed horizontal) par resistance ka samna karta hai. Yeh crude oil ka sab se neechay traded price tha jab tak recent sharp fall nahi hua.

$61.94 ke Neeche Girawat ke Signals

Aaj ke low se neeche girawat agla kamzori ka ishara degi, jabke Budh ke low $61.94 ke neeche girawat ek gehri bearish retracement ka signal hai. Note karen ke recent price action ke bottom par ek chhoti si rising trend line bhi hai. Yeh line pehle hi toot jayegi agar Budh ka low trigger hota hai. Agar girawat trigger hoti hai, to do key support areas par nazar rakhni hogi. Pehla recent interim swing low $60.40 aur 50% retracement $60.27 par hai. Phir, neeche ek range $59.08 se $58.86 tak hai, jo 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aur purane daily support se define hoti hai.

Haftawar Close Weak Nazar Aa Raha Hai

Hafta ka ek din baqi hai aur crude oil doosra consecutive higher weekly high aur higher weekly low set karne ke liye tayyar hai. Yeh short-term strength dikhata hai. Lekin is hafta ke high ke baad bearish price action crude oil ko period ke liye neeche khatam hone aur pichle hafta ke high $64.72 se neeche rehne ki position mein rakhta hai. Is wajah se, weekly time frame par upside breakout confirm nahi hoga.

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil duniya ki sab se important commodities mein se ek hai aur iska asar sirf energy market tak mehdood nahi, balkay global forex market par bhi gehra asar dalta hai. Jab bhi oil ki prices mein izafa ya kami hoti hai, to kai currencies ki value bhi directly ya indirectly effect hoti hai. Yeh asar khas tor par un countries ki currencies par zyada hota hai jo ya to oil export karti hain ya oil import par heavily depend karti hain.

Forex market, jahan duniya ki currencies ka lein dein hota hai, wahan crude oil ki importance kaafi zyada hai. Misal ke tor par, Canada aur Russia jaise mulk oil export karte hain, is liye inki currencies—jaise Canadian Dollar (CAD) aur Russian Ruble (RUB)—crude oil prices se positively correlated hoti hain. Jab oil ki price barhti hai, to in countries ko zyada revenue milta hai, jo unki economy ko mazboot banata hai aur currency ki value bhi barhti hai. Is ke bar-aks, jab oil prices girti hain to in ki currencies bhi weaken ho jaati hain.

Dusri taraf, Japan aur India jaise mulk jo oil import karte hain, unki currencies oil price ke barhne se pressure mein aa jaati hain. In countries ke trade deficits barhne lagte hain aur foreign exchange reserves par burden padta hai. Forex traders yeh sab factors madde nazar rakh kar trading decisions lete hain.

Crude oil aur US Dollar ka bhi aik khas rishta hai. Duniya mein zyadatar oil ka lein dein US Dollar mein hota hai, is liye jab USD strong hota hai to oil ki demand mein kuch kami aasakti hai, kyunke oil importing countries ke liye oil mehenga ho jata hai. Waisa hi, jab USD weak hota hai to oil importing countries zyada oil kharid leti hain, jo oil ki prices ko upar le ja sakta hai.

Forex market mein crude oil ki news, OPEC ke decisions, geopolitical tensions (khas tor par Middle East mein), aur global demand-supply factors ka deep influence hota hai. Agar koi conflict ho jaye ya supply disruption ho, to oil prices mein sudden jump aa sakta hai, jiska asar instantly forex market par bhi nazar aata hai.

Traders technical aur fundamental analysis ka use karte hain taake oil aur currency pairs ka sahi andaaza laga sakein. News events jaise US crude oil inventories ya OPEC meetings ka intezar karna aur phir unki announcements ke mutabiq trading karna common strategy hai.

Akhir mein, crude oil aur forex market ka taluq bohot gehra hai. Jo traders in dono ki dynamics samajh lete hain, wo trading mein behtari hasil kar sakte hain. Market ki volatility ko samajhna aur timing sahi rakhna hi kamyabi ki kunji hai.

Crude Oil (CL) ka market analysis professional trading approach se agar kiya jaye to hamesha demand-supply dynamics, geopolitical developments, inventory data, aur broader risk sentiment ke perspective se evaluate kiya jata hai. Crude oil ek commodity hone ke natayeh, iska price purely speculative nahi hota—yeh real-time consumption, production, aur economic indicators se kaafi closely linked hota hai. Is wajah se technical ke sath sath fundamental aspect iske analysis ka core part hota hai. Agar hum recent price action ki baat karein to CL crude oil ne ek volatile range form ki hai jisme price ne $82.50–$86.70 ke beech multiple rejection aur reaction dikhaye hain. Market ne short-term me consolidation ka structure adopt kiya hai lekin broader trend bullish hi hai jab tak price $81.00 ke upar sustain karta hai. Ye level ek critical support ban gaya hai jahan se multiple times strong bullish reversal candles observe ki gayi hain.

Support levels currently $83.50 aur $82.00 ke aas paas establish ho chuke hain. $82.00 ek dynamic level bhi hai jo psychological aur structural dono importance rakhta hai. Agar price is level ko break kare to $80.00 next demand zone ban sakta hai jahan buyers phir se active honge. Resistance side pe $86.70 aur uske baad $88.30 ka level key supply zones hain. Agar price in levels ko clean bullish breakout ke sath todta hai to $90 aur uske aage $92.50 ke targets open ho jate hain. Technical indicators ki baat karein to RSI 60 ke aas paas hai, indicating healthy bullish momentum without being overbought. MACD signal line aur histogram dono positive me hain, lekin divergence signals ko ignore nahi kiya ja sakta. Daily timeframe pe price 20 EMA aur 50 EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo bullish continuation ka strong signal deta hai. Moving average crossover (agar recently hua ho) aur price ka EMAs pe bounce confirmation deta hai ke trend intact hai. Fibonacci retracement tool lagaya jaye recent bullish move pe (say $79.50 se $86.70) to 38.2% level near $84.20 aur 61.8% level around $82.20 aata hai. Ye zones potential buy-on-dip entries ke liye ideal ho sakte hain agar wahan bullish price action confirmation mile.



Volume profile bhi is waqt kaafi crucial hai. $83.80 ke aas paas high volume node hai jahan se market ne strong bullish impulsive moves generate kiye. Is level pe agar price dubara aata hai to reaction critical hoga for short-term direction. Ab agar hum fundamental triggers dekhein to crude oil market kaafi sensitive hai geopolitical developments, OPEC+ ke production decisions, aur US crude oil inventories pe. Agar OPEC production cuts announce karta hai ya kisi major oil-producing region me disruption hoti hai (e.g., Middle East conflict), to supply side contraction hoti hai jisse price upar jaata hai. Waise hi agar US inventories unexpectedly drop karti hain to short-term bullish impulse generate hota hai. On the demand side, global economic activity ka role hota hai. China aur US ki economic performance oil demand ko direct affect karti hai. Agar Chinese industrial data strong aata hai ya US manufacturing indexes better than expected hotay hain, to crude demand barhti hai aur price rise karta hai. On the contrary, economic slowdown ka signal (like rising unemployment or weak GDP) oil prices ko pressure me dalta hai.

Geopolitical tensions like Iran-Israel conflict, Red Sea shipping routes blockages, or Russian sanctions oil ke supply chain ko affect karte hain. Is tarah ke events news-driven price spikes ka sabab bante hain, lekin inpe blindly trade karna risky ho sakta hai jab tak technical confirmation na ho. Crude oil ek high volatility commodity hai, aur isme leverage ke sath trade karne wale traders ko hamesha risk management ka proper plan rakhna chahiye. $1 move ka impact 1000-barrel contract size me significant hota hai, isliye stop-loss aur position sizing pe strict discipline lazmi hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

WTI Crude Oil Analysis: Bears ki Nazren $60 par Markoz Hen

COT futures report se milne wale mukhtalif signals oil ke outlook ko thoda ghair-wazeh kar rahe hain. Lekin short term mein, price action yeh batati hai ke WTI crude oil ko $60 ke niche torne ki doosri koshish ka samna ho sakta hai.

CME positioning data mein kuch competing forces nazar aa rahi hain, jo WTI ke agle bade move ko samajhne mein mushkil paida kar rahi hain. Jabke recent weeks mein gross shorts barh rahe hain aur gross longs kam hue hain, net-long exposure traders ke darmiyan oversold nazar aa raha hai jo aksar net long rehte hain.



Lekin, do haftay pehle $60 ka strong false break dekhne ke baad, mujhe lagta hai ke prices $60 ke upar rahengi aur $70 ki taraf barhengi. Magar short term price action se lagta hai ke bears pehle $60 par dobara hamla karna chahte hain.

Managed funds aur large speculators ke darmiyan gross short exposure recent weeks mein thodi si barh rahi hai, halanke dono groups ne pichle hafte short exposure kam kiya (total -13k contracts). Gross longs bhi recent weeks mein gir rahe hain, lekin managed funds ne WTI crude oil mein net-long exposure 24k contracts barhaya.

Do haftay pehle, large speculators December ke baad sab se kam bullish thay WTI crude oil futures par, jabke managed funds September 2023 ke baad sab se kam bullish thay. Is metric se, bullish exposure oversold lag sakta hai, bhale hi short positioning overall recent weeks mein barhi hai.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Daily Chart



April ke high se sharp girawat crude oil ke January mein peak ke baad doosri leg lower hai. Lekin, doosri leg ke douran momentum kafi strong tha.

Us ke baad ka price action volatile raha hai, aur jabke prices barhi hain, bulls ne in gains ke liye kafi mehnat ki hai. Daily candles ka overlapping nature yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh ‘rebound’ corrective ho sakta hai, khaas tor par jab volumes bhi kam hain.

Budh ko $65 ke qareeb ek bearish outside/engulfing candle bana, jo 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aur March ke low ke qareeb tha. Ab bias kam se kam $60 tak girne ka hai, lekin VPOC support levels $59.62 aur $60.64 par bhi nazar rakhna chahiye.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: 1-Hour Chart



1-hour chart dikhata hai ke crude oil prices ek rising wedge pattern se gir gaye hain. Aise patterns downtrend ke douran continuation patterns ka kaam kar sakte hain aur bearish price objectives base ke qareeb dete hain – jo is case mein $54.50 ke aaspaas hai.

Ek bearish divergence bhi bani thi jab momentum neeche gaya. 1-hour chart par price action ek chhota flag pattern bhi dikhata hai jo $60 ke thodi niche downside target deta hai. Mera bias abhi $60 tak move ka hai, lekin is milestone level ke aaspaas volatility ke liye tayyar rahen.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: OPEC Cuts aur Trade Policy Agla Move Shape Karega

WTI crude oil (CL) shayad wapas bullish move karen, kyunke US aur China ke darmiyan trade tensions kam ho rahe hain. Trump administration 145% se 50% aur 65% tak tariffs kam karne pe ghaur kar rahi hai. Yeh mumkin rollback global trade ko stimulate kar sakta hai aur oil demand ko barha sakta hai.



Saath hi, OPEC ka taza compensation plan oil prices ko support deta hai. Aath member mulk, jin mein Iraq aur Russia shamil hain, mid-2026 tak mila kar 4.57 million barrels daily ka production cut lagoo karenge. Iske ilawa, May mein pehle ke overproduction ko offset karne ke liye 378,000 barrels per day ke additional compensatory cuts supply mein kisi bari izafe ko rokne mein madad denge.

Short-term outlook aaj ke 2.5% dip ke bawajood constructive hai. Lekin, medium-term trend neutral hai aur $72 ke oopar break chahiye taake ek ahem rally trigger ho. Markets ne US ke naram stance ke ishaaron ka khair maqdam kiya. Agar tariff relief haqeeqat ban jaye aur OPEC ke cuts plan ke mutabiq lagoo ho, to agle hafton mein oil prices mein mustaqil rebound ho sakta hai.


WTI Oil Daily Chart – Pivotal Zone

WTI crude oil ka daily chart oversold region se rebound dikhata hai, jo $66 aur $67 ke darmiyan key long-term pivot zone tak pohancha. Price is area mein consolidate kar sakti hai directional move se pehle. Trend bearish hai, aur yeh rebound oversold conditions ka reaction hai. Agar price $65-$67 ke oopar break nahi karti, to WTI crude oil mein dobara girawat aa sakti hai.



WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Descending Broadening Wedge

WTI crude oil ka 4-hour chart ek descending broadening wedge pattern ke support se rebound dikhata hai, jo price ko $65 ke area ki taraf dhakel raha hai. RSI indicator batata hai ke oversold market conditions ne rebound ko drive kiya, kyunke price ab $65-$67 ke key resistance zone ke qareeb hai.




US Dollar Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

US Dollar Index ka daily chart 98 ke long-term support level se rebound dikhata hai, jo 100 aur 100.65 ke darmiyan resistance zone ki taraf hai. Lekin, yeh rebound extreme oversold market conditions se chalta nazar aata hai. Index abhi bhi bearish pressure mein hai, aur yeh correction shayad ek aur tez girawat ka sabab banegi.



US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

US Dollar Index ka 4-hour chart dikhata hai ke index orange zone mein trade kar raha hai, jo ek descending channel ke intersection se define hota hai. Yeh zone gehre bearish pressure ko zahir karta hai. Haalaanki index thoda rebound kiya hai, lekin yeh bearish structure mein hai, jo batata hai ke ek aur girawat aa sakti hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Oil Prices Rebound Back ho Gaye hai

Crude oil prices apne low se ab kuch mutehkam ho chuki hai, jis se prices kafi had tak rebound ho chuki hai. Chun ke rally jari rehne ke nishaan dikha rahi hai, oonchi mumkina qeemat ke nishane abhi bhi durust hain. Pehla nishana 20-Day MA hai, jo gir raha hai, aur aaj yeh resistance ke tor par qareeb qareeb test kiya gaya. Yeh fi-al-haal $65.18 pe hai. 20-Day line ke baad pehle ka support $65.65 se $65.92 tak hai, sath hi tazi girawat ka 61.8% Fibonacci retracement $65.89 pe hai.



Agar yeh qeemat zone toot jata hai, to $67.08 se $67.64 ka qeemat ilaqa agla ooncha nishana ban jata hai. Pehle, ek rising ABCD pattern (purple) ka ikhtitam $67.08 (D) pe hai. Is ke baad 50-Day MA $67.64 pe hai. Lekin chun ke 50-Day line gir rahi hai, yeh shayad ABCD nishane se pehle qareeb ya neechay ho jab crude oil isay resistance ke tor par test karega, agar aisa hota hai.

Fast Increase hone ka Rad-e-Amal
Chun ke crude oil ki tazi girawat tezi se thi, counter-trend barhao mein poora retracement pura karne ka imkaan hai. Barhao ki raftaar pehle ki girawat jaisi nahi hai, lekin is wajah se counter-trend rad-e-amal ooper ki taraf heran kar sakta hai. Baghair is ke, crude oil ke oonche mumkina resistance ilaqon ko test karne ka imkaan hai pehle ke rally khatam ho.

Jaise ooper zikr kiya gaya, yeh tabdeel ho sakta hai agar aaj ke neechay $63.20 se girawat ho. Isi waqt, ooper jate hue pullback ya consolidation hona aam baat hogi. Crude oil ka aglay mumkina resistance zone ke gird rawayya is barhao ki taqat ya kamzori ke baray mein isharaat dega.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis



Crude oil ne Mangal ko mazbooti jari rakhi, countertrend rally ke liye thora naya high $64.81 tak pohancha, phir peeche hata. Pir ke high $64.09 ke ooper ek breakout Mangal ke barhao ke dauraan trigger hua, us ke baad naye trend high tak breakout. Magar, is likhne ke waqt, crude oil kal ke neechay ke neechay trade kar raha hai.

Is high ke ooper rozana close ek din ke jari rehne ke signal ki tasdeeq karega kyun ke pehle ke high ke ooper close aaj mumkin nahi lagta. Phir bhi, aaj ka neechay ka $63.20 ek ooncha rozana neechay paida karta hai. Yeh neechay qareebi muddat ka ahem support hai kyun ke is qeemat level se neechay girawat qareebi muddat mein mazeed kamzori dekh sakti hai.

Brent Technical Analysis
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Brent markets bhi structural nuqta-e-nazar se wahi lagte hain, lekin Brent mein humare paas $70 ka level bari resistance ke tor par hai. Agar hum $70 ke ooper toor sakein, to yeh Brent ko kafi ooper bhej sakta hai. Lekin abhi, mera khayal hai ke hum $60 ke neechay aur $70 ke ooper ke darmiyan range dekh rahe hain. Aur jab hum $67 ke ilaqay mein hain, hum thora sa fair value se ooper hain. Aur is liye, main is waqt zyada jarkasana hona nahi chahta.

Mera khayal hai ke hum shayad is waqt kisi bhi cheez se zyada sideways jane mein waqt guzarenge, kam az kam pehla qadam, wapsi ki koshish ke tor par. Agar Trump administration aur bari maeeshaton se trade deals ka elaan hota hai, to crude oil rally shuru karega.

Crude oil duniya ki economy ka aik bohat ahem hissa hai. Yeh sirf fuel ka source nahi balkay industries, transportation aur global trade ka bhi bunyadi asar hai. Jab crude oil ki qeemat mein utar chadhav hota hai, to is ka asar sirf aik mulk tak mehdood nahi rehta—yeh poori duniya ke markets ko hila kar rakh deta hai. Aaj bhi, crude oil ki supply aur demand ka taluq stock markets, currency exchange rates, aur inflation jaise economic indicators se bohat gehra hai.

Jab oil ki prices barhti hain, to transport aur manufacturing industries ki cost bhi barh jati hai. Yeh baat end consumers tak pohanchti hai jahan mehngai barhti hai aur logon ki purchasing power kam ho jati hai. Is se global demand mein bhi kami dekhi jati hai. Agar kisi mulk ka economy ziada oil import karta hai, to un par current account deficit ka pressure barh jata hai. Aise mulkon ke liye crude oil ki price hike bohat negative sabit hoti hai. India, Japan aur Turkey jaise mulk is ki misaal hain jahan oil import kaafi zyada hai.

Dosri taraf, oil exporting countries jaise Saudi Arabia, Russia, aur UAE ke liye high oil prices faydemand hoti hain. In mulkon ke revenues barhte hain aur unki economies mein liquidity ati hai. Magar agar oil prices bohat zyada gir jayein, to yeh mulk bhi economic slowdown ka shikar ho jate hain. 2014 ke oil price crash ne kai oil-dependent economies ko destabilize kar diya tha. Venezuela iska shikar hone walay mulkon mein sab se zyada nuqsan uthany wala tha.

Crude oil ka asar sirf economic level tak mehdood nahi hai, balkeh geopolitical tensions mein bhi iska kirdar hota hai. Middle East mein conflicts ya sanctions ka asar foran oil prices par padta hai, jo ke investor confidence ko affect karta hai. Is wajah se crude oil ko aksar "strategic commodity" kaha jata hai. Iski supply chain mein agar thoda sa bhi interruption ho, to global market mein turbulence aa jata hai.

Oil prices ka link inflation se bhi hai. Jab fuel mehnga hota hai to transport, food aur basic commodities ki prices bhi barh jati hain. Yeh central banks ko force karta hai ke woh interest rates barhayein jese ke U.S. Federal Reserve karta hai. Iska asar global borrowing cost par padta hai jo developing countries ke liye mushkilat paida karta hai.

Aaj kal jab duniya renewable energy sources ki taraf ja rahi hai, tab bhi crude oil ka economic asar kam nahi hua. Electric vehicles aur clean energy ke bawajood, crude oil abhi bhi global energy mix ka major part hai. Jab tak yeh dependence khatam nahi hoti, crude oil ki economic importance barqarar rahegi.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil ki Prices Us-Iran ki Nuclear Talk aur Trade Tariff ki Waja Se 2% Fall Kar Gaye

Light crude oil futures Monday ko price fall kar gaye, last week ki bullish movement ko barqarar rakhne mein nakam rahe jab $64.18 ke qareeb resistance ko cross na kar sake. Market ab key pivot $63.06 se neechay trend kar raha hai, traders $59.33 ke qareeb support ki taraf wapas jane ka imkaan dekh rahe hain. Badi trend indicators bearish hain, kyun ke qeematain 50-day aur 200-day moving averages, $66.85 aur $68.68, se kafi neechay hain.

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Key Points:

• Crude 2% se zyada gir gaya kyun ke U.S.-Iran nuclear muzakiraat se mutasir Iranian teel ki supply wapas anay ka imkaan hai.
• $64.18 resistance ko torne mein nakami se bearish dabao barha; momentum kam hone se $59.33 ke qareeb support pe nazar.
• Teel $66.85 aur $68.68 moving averages se neechay phansa hai, jo lambi muddat ke qeemat trends mein girawat ko mazboot karta hai.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal ki Advancement Supply Uncertainty ko Increase Karti Hai

Oil ki qeematain 2% se zyada gir gayin kyun ke naye U.S.-Iran nuclear muzakiraat ke baray mein musbat umeed ne bazaar mein mazeed crude anay ka imkaan barhaya. Dono taraf ek mumkina framework banane ke liye drafting shuru karne pe razi ho gaye, jo ek U.S. official ne “bohot achi taraqqi” qarar diya. Tajziya nigaron ne kaha ke sirf breakthrough ka ishara bhi bazaar ko mustaqbil ki Iranian supply ke liye qeematain adjust karne pe majboor kar sakta hai. Yeh khabar sirf chand din pehle U.S. ke ek Chinese refiner pe Iranian crude process karne ki wajah se pabandiyan lagane ke baad aayi, jo geopolitical stakes ko wazeh karti hai.

Bari Maashi Dabao Demand Outlook pe Asar
Supply fikron ke ilawa, traders macroeconomic stress ka samna kar rahe hain. Tariff-driven growth fikron aur Federal Reserve pe siyasi dabao ne bazaar ki bechaini barha di, sona ko ooper kiya aur crude ko neechay kheencha. IG strategist Yeap Jun Rong ke mutabiq, investors ko mustaqil demand recovery ki qeemat lagane mein mushkil ho rahi hai, kyun ke barhti OPEC+ output aur global maashi kamzori bullish jazbaat ko rok rahi hai.

OPEC+ Production Plans Bears ko Active Rakhte Hain
Kuch members ki mili juli compliance ke bawajood, OPEC+ May mein 411,000 barrels rozana output barhane ke plan pe qaim rehne ki ummeed hai. Halanke zyada production karne walon ke cuts is barhawe ko kuch had tak offset kar sakte hain, supply mein khalis izafa pehle se nazuk bazaar ke jazbaat pe mazeed dabao daalta hai. Traders is baat pe nazar rakhenge ke yeh incoming Iranian barrels ke sath kaise balance hota hai, khas tor par jab refinery margins tang hain.

Oil ki Qeematain Peshangoi: Bearish Dabao Barh Raha Hai
Oil ki qeematain key technical levels se neechay ruk gayin aur Iran se naye supply risks nazar aanay ke sath, qareebi muddat ka outlook bearish hai. Easter holiday ki wajah se kam liquidity ne Pir ki girawat ko shayad barha charhaya, lekin bunyadi trend mazeed girawat ka imkaan dikhata hai. $63.06 resistance wapas hasil na karne ki surat mein $59.33 ka test qareebi muddat mein ho sakta hai, khas tor par agar aanay wala U.S. PMI data maashi slowdown fikron ko mazboot kare.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis



WTI crude oil $63.03 ke qareeb mandra raha hai jab yeh $63.96 resistance ko chhoo kar wapas aaya, jahan 200-period EMA ne gains ko roka. Qeemat 50 EMA ($62.09) aur ek ascending trendline ke ooper hai, jo ke bunyadi bullish structure ka ishara deti hai. Magar, 200 EMA pe rejection se hesitation dikhti hai. Fori support $62.07 pe hai, us ke baad $59.89. $63.96 ke ooper mustaqil harkat $65.98 aur $67.84 ki taraf rasta khol sakti hai. Is ke baraks, $62.07 se neechay girna qeematain wapas $59.89 ki taraf kheench sakta hai. Momentum neutral-to-bullish hai, lekin teel ko uptrend qaim rakhne ke liye mazboot volume ki zaroorat hai. Sab ki nazrein is baat pe hain ke kya USOIL 200 EMA wapas hasil kar sakta hai—ya trendline support toor kar tabdeeli ki tasdeeq karta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Prices Week k Start me hi Bearish Pressure me Hai

Crude oil ki qeematain is week ke start mein bearish trend ke sath aghaz huin kyun ke Ukraine mein jang ke jaldi khatmay ki umeedain kam hui aur tariff hungamay ke darmiyan demand mein kami ka imkaan. United States aur Iran ke darmiyan nuclear deal ki muzakiraat ki khabron ne is rujhaan ko mazid barhaya.



“Bazaar ka bari rujhaan abhi bhi neechay ki taraf hai, kyun ke investors supply-demand outlook mein behtari ke liye yaqeen hasil karne mein mushkilat ka samna kar sakte hain, khas tor par tariffs ke global growth pe asar aur OPEC+ se barhti supply ki wajah se,” IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong ne Reuters ko bataya.

Aksar bainul aqwami bazaar ke mushahedeen ka maan-na hai ke tariff-driven global trade flows ka dobara bandobast crude oil ki demand pe manfi asar daale ga, halanke kai Asian energy importers America se zyada teel khareedne ki koshish kar rahe hain taake apne trade surplus ko kam kar ke America ke saza dainay wale tariffs se bach sakein.

Is dauraan, U.S.-Iran talks ka doosra round is weekend khatam hua, dono tarafon ne ishara diya ke taraqqi hui hai.

“Aaj, Rome mein, chaar ghanton se zyada waqt tak doosre round ke muzakiraat mein, hum ne seedhi aur ghair seedhi guftagu mein bohot achi taraqqi ki,” ek senior Trump administration official ne CNN ke hawale se kaha.

“Main keh sakta hoon ke aage barhne ki harkat hai. Hum ne Rome muzakiraat mein kuch usoolon aur maqasid par behtar tafheem aur ittefaq hasil kiya,” Iran ke Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi ne kaha.

OPEC+ ka faisla ke May se rozana 411,000 bpd supply barhaye jaye, qeematain pe wazan daal raha hai, bawajood is ke ke is pe baad mein dobara ghor kiya ja sakta hai aur group ki qayadat ka irada hai ke production control mein peechay rehne walon ko compensation output cuts ke zariye line mein laya jaye. Sab se zyada overproducers, Iraq aur Kazakhstan, ne is mahinay ke shuru mein apne oil production ke liye updated compensatory cuts ke plan pesh kiye, kyun ke woh kai mahinon se apne quotas par qaim nahi reh sake.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Light sweet crude grade mein crude oil bazaar shuruati ghanton mein thoda gir gaya hai kyun ke hum abhi bhi bohot shor sharaba dekh rahe hain. Sab kuch barabar hone ke bawajood, yeh ek aisa bazaar hai jo waqt ke sath global demand ka tayyun karega. Mera khayal hai ke yeh wahi ho raha hai kyun ke hum ek kaafi ahem consolidation region ke qareeb hain aur neechay humare paas $60 ki shakal mein ek ahem support level hai. Agar $60 ka level toot jata hai aur qeemat is se neechay girti hai, to yeh is bazaar ke liye bohot kharab alamat ho sakti hai. Agar hum $65 ke level ke ooper toor sakein, to yeh bullish hoga.



Brent Technical Analysis

Brent markets bhi aisa lagta hai jaise woh agla qadam tay karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Hum $66 ke ilaqay ki taraf wapas ja rahe hain jab mein yeh video record kar raha hoon, jo ke pehle kaafi resistant raha hai. To, is ke sath, mera khayal hai ke traders girawat pe zyada khareedenge, lekin aggressive hone se pehle humein pehle mazboot hona zaroori hai. Dobara, mera khayal hai ke yeh US aur China ke darmiyan kisi trade agreement par munhasir hoga. Agar woh aisa kar sakein, to mujhe yaqeen hai ke yeh setup teel ko kafi ooncha bheje ga.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Oil Ko Geopolitical aur Trade Developments Ke Darmeyan Key Resistance Ka Samna Kar Raha Hai

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Oil ne naye trade deal hopes aur Yemen ke oil port par US strikes ke baad $64 resistance ki taraf rebound barhaya. Major markets holding pattern mein hain, agle hafta ke moves unfolding headlines aur geopolitical shifts par depend karenge, khas tor par jab Trump Ukraine peace proposal ke liye Russia ke sanctions mein relief offer karta hai.



Is Hafta Dekhne Wale Key Events:

• US ne Ukraine peace deal proposal ke saath Russia se sanctions hataane ka offer diya, jo Thursday se Minerals Deal ke saath effect mein aayega.
• IMF Spring Meetings – global tariff negotiations ke beech potential policy signals.
• China Loan Prime Rate Decision – Monday ko US-China aur US-Global Trade Talks ke beech.
• FOMC Member Remarks – weak dollar narrative ke hawale se relevant.
• Middle East Sanction Risks & Supply Disruptions.

Sentiment & Market Structure: VIX, SPX500, US30, Nasdaq, aur OIL 3-Day Time Frame.

Trade war sell-off ke urooj se, mein oil, US indices, aur VIX ke beech correlation track kar raha hoon. Yeh markets ek saath reverse hue jab 90-day tariff delay ka elaan hua—2020 mein aakhri baar dekhi gayi oversold conditions se bounce karte hue.



Pichle Monday tak, VIX 2020 aur 2008 dono ke reminiscent levels se rebound kiya, jo aksar major sentiment shifts ke saath jura hota hai.

Oil ab zyada decisively advance kar raha hai, jo escalating geopolitical risks—khas tor par Yemen ke Ras Isa oil port par latest US strike aur Iranian aur Russian oil par sanctions—ke saath support mil raha hai, jo prices ko $64 per barrel ki taraf le ja rahe hain.

Aage dekhne par, IMF meetings, US-China negotiations, aur Ukraine aur Russia ke resource deals ke developments key drivers honge. Oil-exporting countries higher prices ke liye supportive hain kyunki woh lambi muddat ke price pressure ke beech revenue stabilize aur enhance karna chahte hain.

China Ka Data Surprise aur Underlying Risks

China ne pichle hafta umeed se behtar GDP, industrial production, aur retail sales post kiye, jo short-term sentiment ko boost dete hain. Lekin, outlook fragile hai kyunki US-China trade tensions barh rahe hain, jo recovery ke sustainability ke ird gird uncertainty paida karte hain.

Macro Sentiment: Caution Signals Dikh Rahe Hain

Sentiment ke perspective se, extreme positioning zyada wazeh ho rahi hai:

• VIX 2008 aur 2020 ke highs se rebound kiya hai.
• USD/CHF 10-year lows ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo dollar par bhaari pressure ka ishara hai.
• Gold $3360 ke qareeb record highs par pohncha, jisme momentum indicators ab pichle crises (2020 pandemic, 2008 recession) ke dauraan ke saath match kar rahe hain.
• Yeh elements sharp reversals ka risk barhate hain. Agar koi positive geopolitical developments ya peace agreements samne aate hain, to markets jaldi disha badal sakte hain—khas tor par jab sentiment ab stretched hai.

Technical Analysis: Uncertainties Ko Quantify Karna



$55 low se sharp rebound ke baad—jo broader market strength aur US indices mein gains ko mirror karta hai—oil ab $64 ke key resistance level ke qareeb hai. Is dauraan, major US indices apne respective resistance zones ke neeche hain, aur further uptrends ke confirmation ke wait mein hain.

$64 ke oopar sustained break aur hold additional upside ki taraf darwaza khol sakta hai, $66 aur $70 ki taraf. Downside par, agar gains hold nahi karte aur prices $64 ke neeche slip karte hain, to support levels $60, $58, aur $55 honge.

$55 ke neeche decisive break ek gehri girawat ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo potentially oil prices ko $49 per barrel region ki taraf le ja sakta hai.