سی ایل/خام تیل کی قیمتیں اور تجزیہ

Pichle hafte ke aakhir mein, #CL ka price thoda gir gaya aur haftay ka aakhir 77.00 par band hua. Hello, Yuri, aapka weekend accha guzre. Aam tor par, yeh thoda hosla afzai hai ke liquids ka price 80 bucks per barrel se upar nahi ja raha. Aur yeh bhi hai ke hum holiday season ke beech hain. Aur jab ke price 80 se kafi niche hai, Americans apni strategic reserves ko bhar rahe hain. Mere hisaab se, abhi oil ka growth mainly is wajah se ho sakta hai (Americans apni storage facilities-strategic reserves ko presidential elections se pehle bhar rahe hain, yeh unka ek asar hai). Toh, lagbhag itne log nahi hain jo har girawat ko khareed rahe hain. Main bhi maanata hoon ke oil market mein apne financial world ke monsters hain (jo paper contracts ka zyada hissa rakhte hain, jo producers nahi hain), aur woh apne kharidne aur bechne ke machinations ke zariye oil price ko control kar sakte hain. Jab #CL 80 ke psychological level tak barh gaya, to price ne ek double top banaya, jiske baad ek local reversal shuru hua, jo shuru mein southern correction ki tarah lag raha tha. Lekin ab naye trading week ki shuruat hai, aur #CL abhi bhi selling pressure ke neeche hai.



Chart mein clearly ek descending channel dikhayi de rahi hai jisme price gir rahi hai. Lekin channel ke andar ek descending triangle bhi dikhayi de rahi hai, jo maximum to channel ko neeche ki taraf break kar sakta hai, ya kam se kam channel ki lower border ko 74.70 tak test kar sakta hai. Technically, sab kuch #CL ke girne ki taraf ishara kar raha hai, lekin fundamental point of view se, bears ke liye sab kuch smooth nahi hai. Halankeh Iran filhal chup hai aur Israel ke khilaf jang nahi shuru kar raha, lekin usne "retaliation act" ko bhi chhodha nahi hai aur jang kabhi bhi shuru ho sakti hai. Market is geopolitical factor ko dhyan mein rakhti hai, isliye #CL ka poora decline nahi hua hai, aur asal mein koi growth nahi hai. Isliye price channel mein flat hai. Jaise maine weekend mein likha tha, ke south market ke khulte hi continue ho sakta hai, jo multiple technical signals aur Monday’s options se indicate hota hai, jahan girawat ka main option max payne 75.50+- tak hai aur expiry tak yehi rahega, aur 74.0+- tak girne ki bhi sambhavana hai, lekin yeh depend karta hai ke supports 74.70-75.0 kaise perform karte hain aur kya woh August pivot 75.24 ke neeche majbooti se bas sakte hain aur 3rd wave H4 FE100% 75.11 ka target achieve karte hain. Monday’s options mein, support 75.92 ke neeche rehna zaroori hai aur south continue hoga. Actually, agar 75.11 ke neeche break hota hai, to ye decline FE161.8% 72.96+- tak ka indication dega, kyunki decline daily balance 78.13 ka test kar raha hai, aur ye balance se kam se kam paanch figures door hai, isliye 72.96 ka target bhi break ho sakta hai aur aur bhi neeche ja sakta hai. General terms mein, aaj ka maximum volume 76.22 par set hai, aur ye wave "c" 76.44 ke minimum target se neeche hai, aur jab tak ye 76.44-76.22 ke neeche rahe, tab tak priority definitely decline 75.11+- tak hai aur wahan reaction dekhenge, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke yahin par nahi rukega.

Crude Oil ne apni pichli losses ko lagbhag pura kar liya jab usne local minimum 75.99 area mein reach kar ke rebound kiya aur rise hona shuru hua. Magar 82.22 par price ko dobara resistance ka samna karna para, jo ke upward momentum ko rok raha tha aur isay decline karne par majboor kar diya. Yeh isay target zone tak ponchnay nahi de saka, aur reversal level tak exit ne pichlay scenario ki possibilities ko shak mein daal diya. Saath hi, price chart super-trend ke green zone mein hai, jo yeh signal karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi control mein hain.
Heiken Ashi candlesticks ke ilawa, price channel indicator ko support aur resistance lines banane ke liye istemal kiya jata hai. Ye lines do dafa smooth moving averages par mabni hoti hain, jo mazi mein zikar hoti hain. Price channel price ke fluctuations ki haddain wazeh karne mein ahem hai aur traders ko entry aur exit points set karne mein aik aham faida deti hain.
Iske ilawa, hum RSI ko ek auxiliary oscillator ke tor par shamil karte hain. RSI Heiken Ashi ke sath istemal mein khaas tor par fayedemand hai, jo market ke rukh ko tasdeeq karne mein madad deti hai. Maujooda manzar mein, RSI oscillator bearish sentiment ko support karta hai. Iski descending curve, jo oversold level ke qareeb nahi hai, ek sell signal ko tasdeeq karta hai.
In indicators ke dastiyaab hone par, humne short sell trade kholi hai jiska target market quotes ko kam az kam channel ke lower limit tak pohnchana hai, jo 78.07 par mojood hai. Ye level aik ahem support zone ka kaam karta hai. Ek bar price is point tak pohnch jaye, hum apni position ko breakeven par move kar sakte hain, risk ko kam kar ke humein mazeed munafa hasil karne ke liye tayar rahna chahiye. Crude oil (#CL) ke char ghante ka chart dekhte hue, hum zyada se zyada 78.30 ke maximum level par ek lambe waqt ke sideways accumulation phase ko dekh sakte hain. Ye sideways movement market ka momentum ikhtiyar karne ki doraan hoti hai. Maujooda market dono rukh mein move hone ki quwwat rakhta hai. Magar agar bullish direction mein breakout hota hai, to ye 83.44 ke maximum level ko test karne ka mauqa banata hai.
Market par asar dalne wale kisi bhi news ya events ke liye hosh mand rehna zaroori hai. Aise bahari factors price action par bade asar daal sakte hain, iss liye maloomat se agah rehna humari risk management strategy ka aham hissa hai. Ye chokas hatana deutsche karwati hai ke samay par trading faislon ka faisla le sakte hain, jisse hum market ke conditions mein kisi bhi tabadlan ka jaldi jawab de sakte hain.
Heiken Ashi candlesticks, price channel indicator aur RSI ke milaap ka istemal crude oil ke price action ko tajziya karne ke liye ek mazboot framework faraham karta hai. Ye tareeqa technical analysis ki darusti ko barhata hai aur bemisal trading faislon ko support karta hai. Jabke maujooda sentiment bearish hai, humein kisi bhi mumkin market shift ke liye tayar rehna chahiye, khaaskar aise jo news events se influence hoti hain. Ye comprehensive approach yakeenii banata hai ke hum market ke movements ka faida utha sakte hain jabke risk ka behtareen management kar sakte hain

Maine chart analysis ke zariye jo conclusion nikala hai, uss ke mutabiq sales ko tarjeeh dena behtar hai. Channel indicator downward price movement ko show kar raha hai, jo ke bears ki taqat ko bulls par faida de raha hai. Zigzag line bhi southern direction mein hai, is liye short positions open karna hi munasib lagta hai. Auxiliary oscillators jaise ke Laguerre aur RSI buyers ke liye favorable area mein hain, lekin aap apni position ko 61.8% Fibonacci level tak hold karne ka iraada rakhte hain, jo ke 71.68 ke price mark par hai.

Oil market ki situation stable hai, jahan ek taraf kuch speculators refinancing rate mein kami ki umeed par price increase ke liye khel rahe hain, aur doosri taraf kuch gas agreement ke sign hone ki umeed par price decrease ke liye. Yani price increase aur decrease dono ke liye factors maujood hain, is halat mein trading trend ka dhyan rakhna zaroori hai.

4-hour chart ki current technical situation bulls ke haq mein hai, lekin Friday ke decline ke bawajood prices ne important support level 76.57 ke niche close nahi kiya. Aakhri 4-hour candle 3 cents upar close hui, jo ke upward correction ki possibility ko mazid barhata hai. Agar bulls ne upward slope ko maintain rakha, to 78.09 tak ka level tod sakte hain, aur 79.61 tak wapas jaane ki koshish kar sakte hain. Aap buying operations consider nahi kar rahe, balke bulls ke recovery ke baad unke market se nikalne ka intezar karenge, kyunki pehle ke periods downward movement ke continuation ki taraf ishara karte hain. Medium term mein aap downward movement ka resume hone aur 74.70 aur 71.67 tak girawat ki umeed rakhte hain. Asal trend south ki taraf hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Oil: Hidden Positive Link

WTI ke aik barrel ki keemat aakhri paanch mein se char sessions mein gir gayi hai, jo bears ki hukoomat ko underline karta hai. Jab keemat $78 ke upar ja rahi hai, jo ke ahem technical levels ke qareeb hai, selling mein izafa ho raha hai.

Last week, oil mahine ke aghaz ka positive momentum qaim rakhne mein nakam raha aur active selling ki wajah se gir gaya. Oil aur equity indices ke darmiyan ka positive correlation toot gaya, jisme oil gir gaya jab ke equities ne apne mazeed mazboot faiday post kiye. Yeh sab ek kamzor dollar aur gold ke tareekhi highs ke saath hua, jo aksar oil bull market ke humsafar hote hain.

Drilling activity kamzor hi hai, jisme oil rig count pichlay hafta 485 se gir kar 483 ho gaya, aur natural gas ko shamil karne par 588 se 586 ho gaya. Oil supply aik record 13.4 million bpd se gir kar 13.3 million bpd par aa gayi hai. Producers, historically low drilling activity ke bawajood, maximum output barqarar rakhe hue hain, jo zyada tar production expansion mein invest karne ke reluctance ki wajah se lagta hai, balkay efficiency mein izafa karne ki wajah se nahi.

Commercial crude oil inventories ek saal pehle ke muqable mein 2% kam hain, jo normal fluctuations ke andar hai aur is ka keematon par koi visible asar nahi hai. Strategic reserve mein buying jari hai, jo apne lows se 8.5% upar hai, magar apne chaar saal ke lows se 42% neeche hai. Is waqt buying ke pace par, strategic reserve ko early July 2020 level par wapas lane mein lagbhag das saal lagenge.

Subdued upstream investment, reserve replenishment aur related markets mein izafa hoti buying ne oil ke against trend ko badalne mein kamyabi hasil nahi ki. Technical factors ab bhi dominate kar rahe hain. Pichlay hafta ke aghaz mein, oil apne 200-week moving average se upar tha. Ek high $78.7 par, price 50-week moving average ($79.1) ke qareeb pohonch gayi. Magar, weekly close negative tha aur decline Monday ko bhi jari raha.

200-week moving average, jo pichlay teen saalon se ek mazboot support level tha, ab aik serious resistance banne ke high probability mein hai. July ke akhir mein, oil ne consolidation trend ko break kiya jo April 2022 se form ho raha tha. Aik nakam koshish se upar jaane ki selling mein izafa ho sakta hai aur yeh long-term trend mein reversal ka indicator ban sakti hai.

Short term mein, hum April se chalne wale bearish corridor ko dekh rahe hain. Iss trend ke andar lower boundary tak pohonchne ka matlab yeh hai ke mahine ke akhir tak $70 tak ka pullback ho sakta hai.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Oil US trading session se pehle flat hai, halan ke woh risk elements jo ke prices ko neeche la rahe the, wo aasani se fade nahi ho rahe. Traders phir se Oil importer China se weak demand ka dar kar rahe hain, jo market sentiment par asar dal raha hai. Is doran, sab ki nazarain Middle East par hain, jahan Gaza ceasefire talks ka successful outcome supply risks ko substantial tor par kam kar sakta hai, Reuters ke mutabiq. Do bade risk premium events ke price out hone se, Crude prices mein mazeed easing dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke US Dollar ki six major currencies ke muqable mein performance ko track karta hai, Japanese Yen ke pressure mein hai. Markets Friday ko hil gaye jab Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ne report kiya ke hedge funds phir se net long ho gaye hain Japanese Yen (JPY) par 2021 ke baad pehli dafa. Is ne Greenback par asar dala aur DXY ki performance mein bhi spill over hua, jo ke 102 ke neeche break karne ke qareeb hai Federal Reserve ke Jackson Hole Symposium ke is hafta ke akhir mein.

Iss waqt, Crude Oil (WTI) $75.37 par trade kar raha hai aur Brent Crude $78.93 par hai.

Oil news aur Market Movers

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken ne Monday ko Israel ke Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ke sath mulaqat ki. Bloomberg report karta hai ke Netanyahu ne kaha ke mulaqat positive thi aur Israel US proposal ko follow karne ke liye committed hai jo ke is waqt table par hai.
Bloomberg report karta hai ke Iran ne apne light crude prices par premium $2.35 per barrel badha diya hai benchmark Oman-Dubai pricing ke muqable mein September sales ke liye Asia mein. Yeh move thoda ajeeb hai jab ke markets China se slowdown ki fikar mein hain.
Weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data ne zahir kiya ke hedge funds ab bhi net long hain Crude Oil par halan ke price action in kuch hafton mein outperform nahi kar raha. Bloomberg report karta hai ke hedge funds ko apna stake cut karna parh sakta hai agar crude is hafta ground gain nahi karta, jo selling pressure mein mazeed izafa karega.
Libya mein Oil output mein 300,000 barrels per day ka izafa hua hai, Waha Oil production ke normal levels par wapas aane ke baad, Reuters report karta hai.
Ceasefire talks on Gaza ke doran headline risk consider kiya jana chahiye jo ke aane wale dinon mein honge.

Oil Technical Analysis: Hedge Funds ka driving seat mein hona

Aik bara warning pichlay hafta charts par nazar aayi jab Oil prices 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) jo ke $78.45 ke aas paas hai, jo aik key technical level hai, ko cross nahi kar saka. Is rejection ke unfold hone ke baad, Relative Strength Index (RSI) daily chart mein ab bhi apne range ke beech mein trade kar raha hai, oversold nazar nahi aa raha. Yeh mazeed downside ka matlab ho sakta hai, khaaskar jab hedge funds apna stake cut karna shuru kar dein, jo ke prices ko $72.00 ya is se neeche le ja sakta hai.



Upside par, bullish hona mushkil hai jab itne resistance levels kareeb hain. Sab se pehla element jo dekhna chahiye wo pivotal $75.27 hai. Agla double level $77.65 par hai, jo ke aik descending trendline aur 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke sath align karta hai. Agar bulls isko break karne mein kamiyab ho jate hain, to 100-day SMA $78.45 par ek aur rejection trigger kar sakta hai jaisa ke pichlay hafta hua tha.

Downside par, August 5 ka low $71.17 sab se behtar level hai bounce ke liye. Agar ceasefire talks mein koi breakthrough hota hai aur hedge funds apna speculative stake Oil contracts mein bechna shuru kar dete hain, to $70.00 ke neeche levels consider karna bura nahi hoga. $68.00 ka bara level pehla level hai dekhne ke liye, followed by $67.11, jo ke triple bottom ka sab se lowest point hai jo ke June 2023 mein dekha gaya tha.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Prices Mazeed Nichay Ja sakti hai

Crude oil ki keemat Wednesday ko gir kar 73.07 USD per barrel par aa gayi, jo ke U.S. energy inventories mein ghair mutawaqqa tabadlon aur geo-political developments ke asar se hui. Brent prices ka tajziya kuch ahem asbaab ko highlight karta hai jo is girawat ka sabab bane.

Market ko apne risk assessment mein tabadlon karne pade jab recent U.S. crude oil stocks mein izafa hua, jab ke kami ki umeed thi. American Petroleum Institute (API) ke mutabiq, inventories mein 0.347 million barrels ka izafa hua, jab ke analysts ne 2.800 million barrels ki kami ka andaza lagaya tha. Yeh update traders mein bearish sentiments ko barhawa de rahi hai, aur aakhri aath hafton mein yeh doosra inventory increase hai, jo ke broader commodities analysis par bhi asar andaz ho raha hai.

Geopolitical soorat-e-haal bhi Middle East mein ek ahem focus hai. Halankeh Israel ne Gaza Strip ke sath tensions ko hal karne ke liye ek proposal ko tasleem kiya hai, lekin puri ceasefire ki ghair mojoodgi se regional stability ab bhi nazuk hai aur yeh global oil supply fears ko barqarar rakhti hai. Yeh geopolitical uncertainty Brent signals ko bhi mutasir kar rahi hai, jo ke aane wale dauron mein price movements ke forecasting ko mushkil bana rahi hai.

Is ke ilawa, China se aane wali economic signals bhi oil prices par bunyadi pressure daal rahi hain. China, jo ke ek bara global oil consumer hai, ke mustaqil economic challenges demand expectations ko kamzor kar rahe hain, jo ke oil prices par asar daal rahe hain. Nataijatan, Brent forecasts mein ehtiyat barhaya ja raha hai, aur analysts ghore se dekh rahe hain ke koi economic indicators mein tabadla jo demand ko mutasir kar sake.

Technical analysis

Hourly chart par, Brent ka tajziya yeh zahir karta hai ke commodity bearish phase se guzar rahi hai aur 72.75 USD tak ja sakti hai. Jab yeh target poora ho jaye ga, to ek retracement 73.20 USD tak ho sakta hai pehle ke mazeed girawat 72.74 USD tak jaane se pehle. Is outlook ko Stochastic oscillator ne corroborate kiya hai, jo ke Brent signal line ko abhi 50 mark ke qareebi hover karta dikha raha hai aur downward directed hai, jo ke short-term bearish trend ko mazid barhawa de raha hai.



Bears abhi thoda aram kar rahe hain recent teen dinon ki bearish acceleration ke baad (oil price 5% down tha), Middle East mein tensions ke kam hone aur US crude stocks mein izafa (API report) se deflate hoti hui.

Oversold daily studies aur Tenkan-Kijun-sen ne sideways move kiya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke bears apna zor khatam kar rahe hain, jo ke traders ko partial profit-taking ke liye raghib kar sakta hai.

Yeh notion is fact se support hoti hai ke oil price ne mukarrar tor pe daily close register karne mein nakami paayi hai June 4 low ($72.46) ke neeche.

Yeh solid support ko zahir karta hai, aur ek aur bounce ho sakti hai, August ke aaghaz mein triple failure ke baad.

Upticks ko pehla resistance $72.00/33 par face hoga, jise $73.00/44 follow karega, jahan $74.00 zone (converged 10/20DMA’s / 4-hr Ichimoku cloud base) expected hai ke cap kare aur ek healthy correction ka mark bane.

Agar $72.46 pivot aur $71.66 (Aug 5 spike low) ke neeche close ho gaya to psychological $70 support ko unmask kar dega.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Hello, everyone! Crude oil prices ne pichlay week mein bearish trend ko follow kiya aur $75.45 tak gir gaye. Abhi current market mein double bottom form hua hai jo bullish trend ko indicate kar raha hai. Mene apne analysis mein green triangle draw karke is trend ko highlight kiya hai.

Pichlay week mein crude oil prices ne almost apni sari positions lose kar di hain jo pichlay week ke muqablay mein thi. $82.22 per resistance face karne ke baad, price ne rebound kiya aur $78.09 ka level tor ke neeche aya aur stabilize hone ki koshish ki. Lekin abhi tak target zone tak nahi pohanchi, jo ke abhi bhi effect mein hai. Is beech, price chart ne supertrend red zone mein entry ki hai, jo yeh batata hai ke sellers active hain.

Crude oil $73.78 per barrel tak gir gaya hai, jo ke Friday ke close $75.41 per barrel se neeche hai. U.S. crude futures ne $75.69 per barrel ka high hit kiya, jab ke low $73.42 tak chala gaya. Isi tarah crude oil $77.81 per barrel tak gir gaya, jab ke previous close $79.31 per barrel tha. UK crude prices ne Monday ko $79.66 per barrel ka intraday high hit kiya, jo ke $77.56 per barrel se neeche tha.



Is waqt prices downward trend mein hain aur weekly lows ke qareeb hain. Main resistance zone abhi bhi strong pressure mein hai lekin abhi tak final breakout ko roknay mein kamiyab raha hai, jo ke prices ko dobara neeche le jata hai aur downward vector correlation ko mazid mazboot karta hai. Ager prices ne $79.54 ke neeche settle kar liya, to ek aur downward move ka chance mil sakta hai, jo $74.28 aur $71.92 ke area ko target karega.

Agar resistance ko tor kar prices ne $82.22 ke pivot level ke uper move kiya, to yeh current scenario ko reverse karne ka signal dega.

Ham filhal Crude Oil ke price behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Kal, Tuesday ko, oil trading instrument (#CL) ne effectively 75.1 ke round resistance level ko test kiya, aur girawat aaj bhi barqarar hai, contract expiration ke bawajood. Ek mazboot bearish trend ban gaya hai, jo ke potential reversals par nazar rakhne ka waqt hai. Magar chart par abhi tak koi clear buy signals nahi hain, aur price neeche jaane ka mumkin hai. Is liye, #CL ko bechna abhi bhi ek viable option hai. Jabke resistance minimal hai, aap Fibonacci grid ka istemal karke 38th Fib level par position khol sakte hain, jo ke 74.31 ke aas paas hai. Price ka current low 71.68 tak girne ka potential hai; is point par main shayad buying strategy ki taraf shift karunga, kyunki bechna risky ho sakta hai, halankeh price thodi aur neeche gir sakti hai momentum ki wajah se.



Aaj Oil (CL) ne dobara downward movement dikhayi; aaj ki subah gap down ke saath khul gaya. Thodi recovery ki koshish ke bawajood, sirf RSI upar ki taraf ja raha hai, jabke stochastic neeche pointed hai. Close hone ke baad price ke neeche jaane ki umeed hai, jo lower Bollinger band tak target kar sakta hai, jo abhi 72.31 par hai. Agar aaj mazboot growth dekhi gayi—ho sakta hai Fed minutes ke kuch noteworthy points ki wajah se—toh price middle Bollinger band aur moving average pair ke 75.23/76.04 area ki taraf move kar sakti hai. Ye dekhna zaroori hai ke price in teen lines ke sath kaise interact karti hai, chahe upar break ho ya phir dobara neeche aaye. Agar price upar break hoti hai, toh overall growth upper Bollinger band tak extend ho sakti hai, jo abhi 78.23 par hai.

Crude oil ne pichle week apni decline continue rakhi, aur phir se new lows hit kiye, gir ke lagbhag 75.99 tak pahunch gayi. Initially, price ne 79.54 se bounce back karne ki koshish ki aur apni rise resume ki, magar 82.22 pe resistance encounter ki, jo usay phir se girne pe majboor kar diya. Baad mein, quotes ne 75.99 pe stabilize hone mein kamyabi hasil ki, jahan significant support mila. Is se price ko desired scenario ke sath target area tak pahunchne ka mauqa mil gaya. Price chart super-trend red zone mein remain karta hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke sellers control mein hain.

Oil prices ne turbulent week face kiya, wild fluctuations ke sath market forces ke clash ke wajah se. Ek taraf, global economic growth ke concerns aur falling oil demand ne prices ko weigh down kiya, jis se crude oil seven-week low of 78.50 per barrel tak gir gaya. Sentiment ko disappointing US economic data ne support kiya, jo ke possible recession ke fears ko reignite kar diya. Niche chart dekhein:


Linear channel indicator, jo ke Moving Average ke current support aur resistance lines ko outline karta hai, bhi ek ahem trading tool hai. Yeh asset ki movement boundaries ko kisi bhi waqt dikhata hai. RSI oscillator bhi trades ko finalize karne mein crucial hai, kyun ke yeh overbought aur oversold zones ko identify karta hai, jo informed trading decisions lene mein madadgar hota hai. Is tools ke set se trading streamline hoti hai aur false market entries ka risk kam ho jata hai. Attached pair ke chart mein blue candlesticks dikhate hain ke bulls strong hain aur price ko upar drive kar rahe hain. Given is bullish sentiment, yeh ek acha mauqa hai long positions open karne ka at favorable price quotes. Price ne linear channel ke lower boundary se aagay move kar liya hai, lekin lowest extreme point par pohanch kar rebound hui aur channel ki middle line ki taraf shift hui. Basement RSI (14) indicator bhi buy signal support karta hai, kyun ke iska upward curve overbought level se door hai, jo ke buy positions ke liye mazid reinforcement hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Price Forecast

Sawaal ke kya CL (oil) ki qeemat barhegi ya kam hogi, yeh traders aur investors ke liye ek ahmiyat ka maamla hai jo energy market ko ghour se dekhte hain. Geopolitical aur economic factors ke bawajood, tail ki qeemat ka andaaza lagana mushkil kaam hai. Isliye, zaroori hai ke kisi bhi trading faisle se pehle expert forecasts ka tajziya kiya jaye.

Haal hi ke data ke mutabiq, asset managers ke darmiyan WTI aur Brent ki tail ke khareedari mein kaafi kami dekhi gayi hai. Commodity Futures Trading Commission ke mutabiq, yeh reduction ka raate pichle 4 saalon mein sabse tez hai. Doosri taraf, OPEC apne faisle par qaim hai ke member countries ko apni production temporary taur par 2024 ke akhir tak kam karni hai, taake qeemat mein mazeed kami na aaye.

Kul mila kar trend downward hai, lekin tail kisi bhi geopolitical event ke liye hasaas hai jo ke iss waqt ke trend ko palat sakti hai.

Yeh article un factors ka tajziya karta hai jo tail ke qeemat ko mutasir kar sakte hain aur WTI rate ke liye forecasts pesh karta hai. Aayiye dekhte hain ke WTI rate ke mustaqbil mein kya hoga.

Current WTI Crude Oil Price $75.394

Zyada experts yeh tasavvur karte hain ke tail ki qeemat $70.00–$85.00 ke sideways channel mein fluctuate karegi 2024 ke akhir tak, jo ke market ke relatively stable rehne ka ishara deta hai, aur qeemat mein minimal changes dekhne ko milenge.

Agar market sideways mein ho, to behtar hota hai ke trading channel ke boundaries ke qareeb trades kholein. Short aur long trades ko $87.00 aur $68.00 par khola ja sakta hai, respectively.



Short term mein, tail ke qeemat kaam hone ki umeed hai ke yeh sideways channel ke lower boundary tak chale jaye. Agar qeemat key levels ke beyond chale jaye, to buyers aur sellers trend ko develop kar sakte hain. Bearish aur bullish scenarios yeh assume karte hain ke crude ki qeemat $62.40 ya $93.85 tak ja sakti hai, trend direction par depend karta hai.

Analysts 2025 ke liye growth forecast karte hain. Average price $83–$84 per barrel ke range mein rehne ki umeed hai. Lambi muddat ke forecasts ke mutabiq, 2026–2030 ke darmiyan qeemat $115 per barrel tak barh sakti hai. Aisi limited growth aam tor par significant aur risky corrections ko prevent karti hai, jo ke inexperienced traders ke liye financial losses ka sabab ban sakti hai.

Oil trading ek profitable investment opportunity ho sakti hai. Oil duniya ke sabse zyada traded assets mein se ek hai. High trading volumes ke wajah se, favorable buying aur selling prices mil sakte hain.

Oil ki qeemat kayi factors se mutasir hoti hai, jaise ke geopolitical events, supply aur demand mein shifts, natural disasters, aur political decisions. Market ki high volatility traders ke liye rising aur falling prices se profits generate karne ke liye kai moqay pesh karti hai.

Oil ek behtareen asset ho sakta hai investors ke portfolios ko diversify karne ke liye. Oil trading se overall risk ko kam karne mein madad milti hai, khaaskar agar investment portfolio stocks aur bonds par mabni ho.

Aap oil ko mukhtalif instruments ke zariye trade kar sakte hain, jaise ke futures, options, contracts for difference, exchange-traded funds, aur hatta ke oil company stocks. Yeh wide variety aapko trading strategy choose karne mein flexibility deti hai.

Kisi bhi trading faisle se pehle, detailed analysis karna, risks ko assess karna, aur potential profits ko potential losses ke saath compare karna zaroori hai. Kisi bhi forecast ko ehtiyaat se lena chahiye kyunke yeh mukhtalif factors ke mutabiq badal sakte hain.

USCrude: technical analysis ke mutabiq, sab short trades jo pehle key resistance ke qareeb open ki gayi thi, apne bearish targets tak pohonch gayi hain. Price upward correction mein trade kar rahi hai.

Oil weekly price forecast

Pichle haftay ke aghaz mein, tail medium-term downtrend mein trade kar rahi thi. Natije mein, price ne 71.35 ke support ko test kiya, jo ke pichla low tha. Jab sab short trades pehle key resistance ke qareeb open ki gayi thi apne bearish targets tak pohonch gayi, to price ne ek upward correction shuru ki.

Agar correction is haftay continue hoti hai, to price resistance (A) 77.88 - 77.29 tak pohonch sakti hai. Is area ko hit karne ke baad, short trades ko consider kiya ja sakta hai 71.35 ke target ke saath.

Agar asset trading ke dauran resistance (A) ko break kar deti hai, to correction trend ki boundary 81.15 - 80.26 tak continue karegi.

WTI Crude Analysis Agle Teen Mahino Ke Liye

June 2024 mein, price ne lambi muddat ke downtrend ko reverse karne ki koshish ki thi red cloud ko break karke. WTI kuch waqt ke liye cloud ke ooper trade kiya lekin upward movement form karne mein nakam raha. Natije mein, asset phir se neeche gira aur June ke low ke neeche $72.45 ke support ke qareeb pohonch gaya.

Tail lambi muddat ke downtrend mein trade kar raha hai. Red cloud jo ke current price ke right side pe dikhai de raha hai, is baat ki tasdeeq karta hai. Tenkan aur Kijun lines neeche ja rahi hain, jo ke short-term aur medium-term trends ke bhi bearish hone ko zahir karti hain.

Qareeb ka unconfirmed resistance level $74.50 par hai. Agar bears qeemat ko is level ke neeche rakhne mein kamiyab hotay hain, to decline $72.45 tak continue karegi. Tenkan line jo ke is level ke qareeb hai, $74.50 level ko mazeed taqat deti hai.

Chart mein August ka high $78.10 dikhai de raha hai, jo ke resistance ka kaam kar raha hai. Agar qeemat $74.50 level ko break karti hai, to growth $78.10 tak continue karegi. Is level par short trades consider ki jayein. Kijun line jo ke is mark ke qareeb hai, is level ko mazeed taqat deti hai.

Downtrend agle teen mahino ke liye continue hone ki umeed hai. Isliye, short trades ko $74.50 aur $78.10 ke resistance levels par consider kiya jaye target $72.45 ke saath. Agar asset $72.45 level ko breach kar deti hai, to decline $70.00 aur $67.65 tak continue karegi.

Long-Term Trading Plan for WTI Crude

Aayiye US Crude ke liye ek long-term trading plan banate hain.

• Oil short-term downtrend mein trade kar raha hai. Isliye, agle mahine mein correction ke baad quotes mein kami aane ke chances hain. Bearish target August 2024 ka low $71.20 ke qareeb hai.
• Agle teen mahine mein, qeemat $68.00–$87.00 ke range mein flat trade karegi. Agar rate range boundaries ko breach karti hai, to asset wider channel $62.40–$93.84 mein trade karegi.
• Long-term trading ka taluq global trend par focus karne se hota hai, jo ke March 2022 se bearish hai. Isliye, qeemat 2024 mein $68.00 ke support ko break karne ki koshish kar sakti hai.
• Agar tail $68.00 level ko break karti hai, to qeemat 2023 ke low ke neeche ja sakti hai aur $62.40 tak gir sakti hai.
• Negative outlook valid rahega agar qeemat weekly chart par mark ki gayi $87.00 ke resistance ko break karne mein nakam hoti hai. Agar tail is level ko breach karti hai, to quotes $93.85 tak barh jayenge.
• Agar qeemat $93.85 ke ooper consolidate hoti hai, to downtrend reverse ho sakta hai. Agar aisa hota hai, to asset 2022 ke highs $126.00 ke qareeb pohonch sakti hai.

Sab ko acha din ho! M15 chart par linear regression channel ka slope upar hai, jo ke buyers ki strength ko darshata hai jo 81.10 ke level tak barhna chahte hain. Jab target tak pohnch jayenge, movement dheemi ho jayegi. Kamzori ki wajah se volatility barhegi, aur market dheere dheere kamzor hote jayegi, isliye correction ke saath recharge karna zaroori hoga. Channel ke upper part ko purchases ke liye consider nahi karna chahiye, correction ka intezar karna chahiye jo 79.38 ke level tak aa sakta hai. Wahan se purchases ka entry consider kar sakte hain. Agar 79.38 ke niche fixation hoti hai, toh bears apna asar dikhayenge jo market ko neeche le ja sakta hai, isliye is background mein purchases uninteresting ho jaati hain. Channel ka angle dikhata hai ke bull kitna active hai, jyaada angle ka matlab hai ke buyer strong hai. Strong angle usually market news ka indicator hota hai jo achi movement ko contribute karta hai.

Main H1 par linear regression channel ko primary source ke roop mein use karta hoon movements determine karne ke liye. M15 channel ek auxiliary channel hai jo bullish picture ko ab highlight karta hai aur growing trend ko darshata hai. Channels ek hi direction mein move kar rahe hain, is instrument ke zariye bullish mood ko characterize kiya ja sakta hai. Jab younger period par signal break hota hai, toh 78.45 ke level tak decline ka intezar karna chahiye, jahan se fir se purchases ko re-consider kiya ja sakta hai 80.49 tak. Channel ke upper boundary par jab bulls hon, toh purchases aur sales dono se cautious rehna chahiye.

Meri trading ka principle H1 channel ke direction mein trade karna hai kyunki ye mera main channel hai. Younger channel par entry ko clarify karna aur strong movement ke sath kaam karna accha hota hai jab correction minimal ho. Waise to oil prices ke changes se gas station ki prices badhti ya kam hoti hain, aur stock exchange par oil girne par bhi oil prices unchanged rahte hain, mujhe ye jokes pata hain. Aur ye correlations sirf oil ke saath nahi hote. Mere liye kuch nahi badla. Main ab bhi $65 per barrel ka price tag expect karta hoon strategic satisfaction ke liye. Dekhte hain.

Crude Oil Price Action
Crude oil ke qeemat ka technical analysis filhal forex forum par intensively discuss ho raha hai. Oil market ne haali mein aik significant shift dekha hai. Girawat ke baad, Jumme ko aik strong bullish reversal dekha gaya, jo ke potential sustained growth ka clear indication hai. Crude oil (CL) ne apne monthly Average True Range (ATR) ke lower boundary ko test kiya, jo ke aik bullish signal ko trigger karta hai jo ke candle absorption pattern mein manifest hota hai. Halankeh oil price volatile range mein reh gayi, yeh risk-takers ke liye profitable opportunities provide karti hai. Maslan, agar $75.53 par oil buy kiya jaye, to $77.11 par breakeven aur modest profit mil sakta hai. Agar $71.51 par enter kiya jaye to 351 points ka substantial gain mil sakta hai, aur upper trend line $76.29 par hai, jo ke within reach hai. Price moving averages ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, jo ke broader bearish trend ko reinforce karta hai. Magar, MACD indicator bullish divergence ko highlight karta hai, jo ke upward momentum aur market gap ka hint de sakta hai. Israel aur Hezbollah ke darmiyan ongoing missile exchange Middle East mein escalating tensions ko barha sakta hai, jo ke crude oil prices ko higher levels tak push kar sakta hai.



Price ne 75.06-75.54 imbalance zone ko touch kiya, jo ke ek potential pullback ka signal hai, lekin favorable selling zone upar hai, 76.86-77.93 ke darmiyan. Ek feasible scenario ye ho sakta hai ke minor pullback ke baad 76.86-77.93 zone tak climb kiya jaye, jahan pe sell pattern target $70 per barrel hoga. Halankeh oil ke end-of-week gains mein izafa dekha gaya, sustained gains fleeting ho sakti hain demand aur potential oversupply ke concerns ke wajah se agar OPEC apni production cuts ko adjust nahi karta. Price ne 74.78-75.1 half-zone ko test kiya lekin uspe consolidate nahi hui, aur bina daily candle ke is zone ke above close hue, koi definitive trend reversal nahi hai. Magar, Friday ki candle ne bullish absorption dikhaya, jo ke pichle teen dinon se zyada hai, aur pehle target $78.11 ki taraf upward movement suggest karta hai. Price ab ascending hai aur is pattern mein kaam kar rahi hai, jo ke holding for average ke liye prudent strategy ho sakta hai.

Crude Oil ne apni pichli losses ko lagbhag pura kar liya jab usne local minimum 75.99 area mein reach kar ke rebound kiya aur rise hona shuru hua. Magar 82.22 par price ko dobara resistance ka samna karna para, jo ke upward momentum ko rok raha tha aur isay decline karne par majboor kar diya. Yeh isay target zone tak ponchnay nahi de saka, aur reversal level tak exit ne pichlay scenario ki possibilities ko shak mein daal diya. Saath hi, price chart super-trend ke green zone mein hai, jo yeh signal karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi control mein hain.
Heiken Ashi candlesticks ke ilawa, price channel indicator ko support aur resistance lines banane ke liye istemal kiya jata hai. Ye lines do dafa smooth moving averages par mabni hoti hain, jo mazi mein zikar hoti hain. Price channel price ke fluctuations ki haddain wazeh karne mein ahem hai aur traders ko entry aur exit points set karne mein aik aham faida deti hain.
Iske ilawa, hum RSI ko ek auxiliary oscillator ke tor par shamil karte hain. RSI Heiken Ashi ke sath istemal mein khaas tor par fayedemand hai, jo market ke rukh ko tasdeeq karne mein madad deti hai. Maujooda manzar mein, RSI oscillator bearish sentiment ko support karta hai. Iski descending curve, jo oversold level ke qareeb nahi hai, ek sell signal ko tasdeeq karta hai.
In indicators ke dastiyaab hone par, humne short sell trade kholi hai jiska target market quotes ko kam az kam channel ke lower limit tak pohnchana hai, jo 78.07 par mojood hai. Ye level aik ahem support zone ka kaam karta hai. Ek bar price is point tak pohnch jaye, hum apni position ko breakeven par move kar sakte hain, risk ko kam kar ke humein mazeed munafa hasil karne ke liye tayar rahna chahiye. Crude oil (#CL) ke char ghante ka chart dekhte hue, hum zyada se zyada 78.30 ke maximum level par ek lambe waqt ke sideways accumulation phase ko dekh sakte hain. Ye sideways movement market ka momentum ikhtiyar karne ki doraan hoti hai. Maujooda market dono rukh mein move hone ki quwwat rakhta hai. Magar agar bullish direction mein breakout hota hai, to ye 83.44 ke maximum level ko test karne ka mauqa banata hai.
Market par asar dalne wale kisi bhi news ya events ke liye hosh mand rehna zaroori hai. Aise bahari factors price action par bade asar daal sakte hain, iss liye maloomat se agah rehna humari risk management strategy ka aham hissa hai. Ye chokas hatana deutsche karwati hai ke samay par trading faislon ka faisla le sakte hain, jisse hum market ke conditions mein kisi bhi tabadlan ka jaldi jawab de sakte hain.
Heiken Ashi candlesticks, price channel indicator aur RSI ke milaap ka istemal crude oil ke price action ko tajziya karne ke liye ek mazboot framework faraham karta hai. Ye tareeqa technical analysis ki darusti ko barhata hai aur bemisal trading faislon ko support karta hai. Jabke maujooda sentiment bearish hai, humein kisi bhi mumkin market shift ke liye tayar rehna chahiye, khaaskar aise jo news events se influence hoti hain. Ye comprehensive approach yakeenii banata hai ke hum market ke movements ka faida utha sakte hain jabke risk

Crude Oil Pricing Analysis
Abhi hum Crude Oil ke pricing movement ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Agar market 75.01 tak correction dekhti hai, tou uske baad growth dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Haal ke halaat ye bhi indicate kar rahe hain ke decline ho sakti hai, jo ke 75.61 ke range se growth ka sabab ban sakti hai. Ek significant correction already ho chuki hai, jo ke further strengthening ka signal hai. Agar price 77.61 ke range ko break karke us par stabilize ho jati hai, tou ye buying opportunity ka indication hai. Chhoti si pullback ke baad 76.81 ke aas-paas strengthening trend continue ho sakti hai. Agar 77.51 ke range par price consolidate hoti hai, tou ye bhi buying signal dega. Lekin agar price 76.57 ke level (5/8 channel ka upper boundary) tak girti hai, tou 75.01 ke round support level tak decline hone ka risk ho sakta hai, jo ke long-term sellers ke liye chinta ka sabab ban sakta hai aur long-term downtrend ke continuation ki possibility bhi hai.

Current Market Condition:

Abhi oil price bubble market mein phir se inflate ho raha hai aur four-hour CL chart ek uptrend ko reflect kar raha hai. Is scenario mein long position lena advisable hai. Computer analysis ne buying signals ko highlight kiya hai aur main ne inko note kiya hai. MACD oscillator aur AO histograms negative zone se nikal kar positive territory mein chali gayi hain. Strategy ye hai ke price ko 80.19 ke level se upar le jane ki koshish ki jaye. Agar last daily close update hui hai, tou aaj selling pe focus karna hoga. Mere liye optimal selling price kal ka HIGH (73.52) hai, lekin main iske niche bhi entries consider karunga. Agar price kal ke level ka 50% surpass karti hai, tou main stop order set karunga taake losses ko 74.49 par limit kiya ja sake. Profit kal ke lowest point (70.63) se 50% below closing karke kamaya jayega.

Crude Oil ne apni pichli losses ko lagbhag pura kar liya jab usne local minimum 75.99 area mein reach kar ke rebound kiya aur rise hona shuru hua. Magar 82.22 par price ko dobara resistance ka samna karna para, jo ke upward momentum ko rok raha tha aur isay decline karne par majboor kar diya. Yeh isay target zone tak ponchnay nahi de saka, aur reversal level tak exit ne pichlay scenario ki possibilities ko shak mein daal diya. Saath hi, price chart super-trend ke green zone mein hai, jo yeh signal karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi control mein hain. Heiken Ashi candlesticks ke ilawa, price channel indicator ko support aur resistance lines banane ke liye istemal kiya jata hai. Ye lines do dafa smooth moving averages par mabni hoti hain, jo mazi mein zikar hoti hain. Price channel price ke fluctuations ki haddain wazeh karne mein ahem hai aur traders ko entry aur exit points set karne mein aik aham faida deti hain.
Iske ilawa, hum RSI ko ek auxiliary oscillator ke tor par shamil karte hain. RSI Heiken Ashi ke sath istemal mein khaas tor par fayedemand hai, jo market ke rukh ko tasdeeq karne mein madad deti hai. Maujooda manzar mein, RSI oscillator bearish sentiment ko support karta hai. Iski descending curve, jo oversold level ke qareeb nahi hai, ek sell signal ko tasdeeq karta hai.
In indicators ke dastiyaab hone par, humne short sell trade kholi hai jiska target market quotes ko kam az kam channel ke lower limit tak pohnchana hai, jo 78.07 par mojood hai. Ye level aik ahem support zone ka kaam karta hai. Ek bar price is point tak pohnch jaye, hum apni position ko breakeven par move kar sakte hain, risk ko kam kar ke humein mazeed munafa hasil karne ke liye tayar rahna chahiye. Crude oil (#CL) ke char ghante ka chart dekhte hue, hum zyada se zyada 78.30 ke maximum level par ek lambe waqt ke sideways accumulation phase ko dekh sakte hain. Ye sideways movement market ka momentum ikhtiyar karne ki doraan hoti hai. Maujooda market dono rukh mein move hone ki quwwat rakhta hai. Magar agar bullish direction mein breakout hota hai, to ye 83.44 ke maximum level ko test karne ka mauqa banata hai.
Market par asar dalne wale kisi bhi news ya events ke liye hosh mand rehna zaroori hai. Aise bahari factors price action par bade asar daal sakte hain, iss liye maloomat se agah rehna humari risk management strategy ka aham hissa hai. Ye chokas hatana deutsche karwati hai ke samay par trading faislon ka faisla le sakte hain, jisse hum market ke conditions mein kisi bhi tabadlan ka jaldi jawab de sakte hain.
Heiken Ashi candlesticks, price channel indicator aur RSI ke milaap ka istemal crude oil ke price action ko tajziya karne ke liye ek mazboot framework faraham karta hai. Ye tareeqa technical analysis ki darusti ko barhata hai aur bemisal trading faislon ko support karta hai. Jabke maujooda sentiment bearish hai, humein kisi bhi mumkin market shift ke liye tayar rehna chahiye, khaaskar aise jo news events se influence hoti hain. Ye comprehensive approach yakeenii banata hai ke hum market ke movements ka faida utha sakte hain jabke risk ka behtareen management kar sakte hain

Crude Oil ne apni pichli losses ko lagbhag pura kar liya jab usne local minimum 75.99 area mein reach kar ke rebound kiya aur rise hona shuru hua. Magar 82.22 par price ko dobara resistance ka samna karna para, jo ke upward momentum ko rok raha tha aur isay decline karne par majboor kar diya. Yeh isay target zone tak ponchnay nahi de saka, aur reversal level tak exit ne pichlay scenario ki possibilities ko shak mein daal diya. Saath hi, price chart super-trend ke green zone mein hai, jo yeh signal karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi control mein hain.
Heiken Ashi candlesticks ke ilawa, price channel indicator ko support aur resistance lines banane ke liye istemal kiya jata hai. Ye lines do dafa smooth moving averages par mabni hoti hain, jo mazi mein zikar hoti hain. Price channel price ke fluctuations ki haddain wazeh karne mein ahem hai aur traders ko entry aur exit points set karne mein aik aham faida deti hain.
Iske ilawa, hum RSI ko ek auxiliary oscillator ke tor par shamil karte hain. RSI Heiken Ashi ke sath istemal mein khaas tor par fayedemand hai, jo market ke rukh ko tasdeeq karne mein madad deti hai. Maujooda manzar mein, RSI oscillator bearish sentiment ko support karta hai. Iski descending curve, jo oversold level ke qareeb nahi hai, ek sell signal ko tasdeeq karta hai.
In indicators ke dastiyaab hone par, humne short sell trade kholi hai jiska target market quotes ko kam az kam channel ke lower limit tak pohnchana hai, jo 78.07 par mojood hai. Ye level aik ahem support zone ka kaam karta hai. Ek bar price is point tak pohnch jaye, hum apni position ko breakeven par move kar sakte hain, risk ko kam kar ke humein mazeed munafa hasil karne ke liye tayar rahna chahiye. Crude oil (#CL) ke char ghante ka chart dekhte hue, hum zyada se zyada 78.30 ke maximum level par ek lambe waqt ke sideways accumulation phase ko dekh sakte hain. Ye sideways movement market ka momentum ikhtiyar karne ki doraan hoti hai. Maujooda market dono rukh mein move hone ki quwwat rakhta hai. Magar agar bullish direction mein breakout hota hai, to ye 83.44 ke maximum level ko test karne ka mauqa banata hai.
Market par asar dalne wale kisi bhi news ya events ke liye hosh mand rehna zaroori hai. Aise bahari factors price action par bade asar daal sakte hain, iss liye maloomat se agah rehna humari risk management strategy ka aham hissa hai. Ye chokas hatana deutsche karwati hai ke samay par trading faislon ka faisla le sakte hain, jisse hum market ke conditions mein kisi bhi tabadlan ka jaldi jawab de sakte hain.
Heiken Ashi candlesticks, price channel indicator aur RSI ke milaap ka istemal crude oil ke price action ko tajziya karne ke liye ek mazboot framework faraham karta hai. Ye tareeqa technical analysis ki darusti ko barhata hai aur bemisal trading faislon ko support karta hai. Jabke maujooda sentiment bearish hai, humein kisi bhi mumkin market shift ke liye tayar rehna chahiye, khaaskar aise jo news events se influence hoti hain. Ye comprehensive approach yakeenii banata hai ke hum market ke movements ka faida utha sakte hain jabke risk k