سی ایل/خام تیل کی قیمتیں اور تجزیہ

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ke daam mein Monday ko tezi se girawat dekhi gayi, jo $69.50 per barrel tak pahuncha. Ye girawat OPEC+ ke mumkinah production cuts aur China se demand ke kam hone ki speculations ki wajah se hui. Is waqt WTI crude lagbhag $68.30 per barrel par trade ho raha hai, jo aane wale oil supply aur demand ke bare mein market ki uncertainty ko darshata hai. OPEC aur iske allies ke mutabiq, OPEC+ agle mahine se apne scheduled oil production barhane ka iraada rakhta hai. Reuters ke mutabiq, OPEC+ ke aath rukun is mahine 180,000 barrels per day ka output barhane ki umeed rakhte hain. Ye barhawa 2.2 million bpd ke recent production cuts ko dheere dheere reverse karne ke strategy ka hissa hai, jabki agle 2025 tak aur bhi cuts hone ki umeed hai. Oil prices ki girawat ke bawajood, Libya ke oil fields mein factional standoff ki wajah se ongoing supply concerns daamon par pressure ko seemit kar sakti hain. Libya ka deadlock, jisne export disruptions ko janam diya hai, global oil supplies par bhari asar daal raha hai. Lekin Arabian Gulf Oil Company ne domestic demand ko pura karne ke liye 120,000 barrels per day ka production resume kar diya hai, jo supply chain ko kuch raahat deta hai. Phir bhi, Libyan oil exports ke aas-paas ki uncertainty crude oil market mein volatile price movements ka ek bada karan bani hui hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, crude oil prices August ke low $80.00 per barrel ke aas-paas badi resistance ka samna kar rahe hain. Agar ye resistance tut nahi paya, to downtrend continue ho sakta hai, jiska agla support level September ke low $65.27 par hoga, jo $60.00 tak bhi ja sakta hai. Agar $65.27 ka level toot gaya, to traders $69.43 par dohra resistance dekhne ke liye taiyar rahenge, jo ek descending trendline aur 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke saath aligned hai. Is level ke upar ka koi bhi move reversal ka sanket de sakta hai, jahan 50-day SMA $73.30 agla potential resistance point ban sakta hai. Crude oil prices abhi bhi volatile hain, aur price action complicated hota ja raha hai. Technical perspective se dekha jaye to prices ke aur girne ki gunjaish hai, jab tak strong support nahi milta. Relative Strength Index (RSI) dikhata hai ke crude abhi oversold territory mein nahi hai, jo yeh sujhaata hai ke rebound abhi jaldi hai. Lekin OPEC+ production cuts mein deri jese fundamental factors oil prices ke short-term trajectory ko tay karne mein aham role nibhayenge.

Crude oil ki qeemat abhi tak bearish direction mein move kar rahi hai, aur ye expect nahi kiya ja raha ke movement zyada strong hogi. Jo price increase dikhai de raha hai, wo sirf aik secondary response hai, jo lower high bana kar phir se niche girne ka signal de raha hai, jisse aik naya lower low create hoga. Jo price girne ka rally thi, us ne support (S1) 65.41 ko hit kiya lekin wahan false break ya rejection ka samna karna pada aur phir se upar chali gayi. Correction phase mein gain ke bawajood price pivot point (PP) 69.90 ko touch karne ke baad zyada upar nahi ja saki. Aik bearish engulfing candlestick pattern bhi mojood hai, jo ke price ke mazeed niche jaane ka signal de raha hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ko dekhte hue, histogram jo level 0 ya positive area mein hai, aik upward trend dikhata hai. Yeh response hai corrected price movement ka, lekin volume itna zyada nahi hai. Price ka pehla trend pivot point (PP) 69.90 ya EMA 50 ke ird gird consolidate karne ka ho sakta hai, rather than ke resistance (R1) 72.64 tak jaari rahe. Stochastic indicator ke parameters ke zariye overbought zone mein do dafa cross hone par, jo levels 90 aur 80 hain, purchasing saturation point ko dikhaya ja raha hai. Yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke crude oil ki qeemat ke niche girne ka achha chance hai instead of upar jaane ke. Agar lower low-lower high structure aur price movement ka bearish trend waise hi rahta hai, toh trading option ko selling par focus karna chahiye. Position ka entry point pivot point (PP) 69.90 aur EMA 50 ke darmiyan hoga. Confirmation ke liye, aap wait kar sakte hain jab stochastic indicator ke parameters dobara overbought zone mein level 90–80 par cross karein. AO indicator ka volume histogram, jo uptrend momentum ko dikhata hai, kam ho sakta hai jab level 0 ke qareeb aayega.

Euro ne North American trading mein halka sa rebound dekha jabke Asian session ke doran isne khaas nuqsan uthaya. 1.11 ka level short-term charts par mazboot support faraham kar raha hai, jo market ke liye ek ahm psychological zone hai. Tareekh ki roshni mein, EUR/USD aksar bade round numbers ke darmiyan harkat karta hai, isliye agar Euro mein kami jaari rahti hai, to agla logical target 1.10 ka level hoga.
1.10 ka mark pehle ek ahm support area ke tor par kaam kar chuka hai, aur agar Euro is level ke neeche chala gaya, to yeh ek mazboot bottom banne ki nishani ban sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar market recover hoti hai, to 1.12 ka level resistance ke tor par kaam karega. Filhal, yeh pair choppy aur sideways action ka shikar hai, isliye traders ko in key round numbers par dhyan dena chahiye jab market inke darmiyan oscillate kar raha hai. Is pair ki technical nature, jo high liquidity aur strong options market se asar انداز hai, in levels ko khaas tor par sensitive bana deti hai. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) aur U.S. Federal Reserve dono monetary easing ke marahil se guzar rahe hain, jo market dynamics ko aur bhi pechida banata hai.
Is environment mein, Euro aur U.S. dollar ke darmiyan ek saaf long-term winner tay karna mushkil hai. Isliye, ek zyada strategic approach yeh ho sakti hai ke U.S. dollar ki taqat ka andaza lagaya jaye aur isay doosri currency pairs par lagoo kiya jaye. Misal ke tor par, agar dollar Euro ke muqablay mein taqatwar hota raha, to dollar ko kisi tez chalne wali ya exotic currency ke khilaf trade karna behtar ho sakta hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye, yeh zyada munasib hoga ke isay short-term chart analysis ke liye dekha jaye, dekhte hue market ki volatility aur price level ke utar-chadhav.
Eurozone aur U.S. economies mein uncertainties ke mad-e-nazar, traders ko EUR/USD pair mein 1.10 aur 1.12 levels par khaas tawajjo deni chahiye. Yeh levels ahm support aur resistance points hain aur yeh short-term trading decisions mein madadgar sabit ho sakte hain. Market ki in key levels par sensitivity central bank policies aur global economic conditions se barh jati hai. Jab ECB aur Federal Reserve apne easing measures jaari rakhte hain, to yeh pair zyada volatility ka shikar hoga

Monday ko market mein ek bearish emotion tha, lekin aaj market ka direction ulta lag raha hai, kyun ke price ne four-hour chart par effortlessly ek acha southern candle close kiya hai. Guzishta trading week mein #CL ke liye apna maximum update karna mushkil tha, lekin humari rising trajectory ko dekhte hue kuch rationale nazar aata hai. Phir bhi, is hafte ka increase zyada pleasant ho sakta hai, aur 70.70 ke support level se buy karne ka acha chance mil sakta hai. Mujhe yeh bhi lagta hai ke price in levels se niche gir sakta hai aur agla target 68.75 tak jaa sakta hai. Agar bears is level ke niche aur strong ho gaye, toh main $65.27 per barrel ka drop dekhunga. H1 chart par, Europe se aane wali negative economic data oil ko rebound mein madad de sakti hai, lekin US se aane wali negative data demand ko kam kar ke Middle East concerns ke price premium ko negate kar sakti hai. Agar hum chart ko enlarge karein, toh dekha ja sakta hai ke downward reaction ek blue-colored trend line se aa raha hai. Yeh trend line ka chautha touch ho chuka hai, aur sellers ke liye kaafi successful tha, jo ke lagbhag 300 points ka drop ka chance deta hai. Ab hum dekhte hain ke black oil price kal ke downward pattern se break kar raha hai, aur local maximum 71.81 tak chhuta hai. Yeh dobara climb hone ka indication hai, aur main apne goal level 71.08 ka intezar kar raha hoon. Options limited hain, lekin oil ne is direction mein kaafi progress ki hai, toh chance abhi bhi exist karta hai. Ye overall aapki current market analysis ka ek tafseel hai, aur future price movements ko dhyan mein rakh kar aapko trading decisions lene ka acha moka mil sakta hai.

Crude oil ke daam Asian session mein Tuesday ko neeche gaye, kuch mukhtalif factors ki wajah se. OPEC+ ke oil production barhane ka intazar tha aur Saudi Arabia ne bhi production shuru karne ka faisla kiya, chahe is se daam me waqti tor pe girawat hi kyun na ho. Iske ilawa, duniya bhar mein kamzor demand growth, khaaskar China se, aur manufacturing activity ke hawalay se fikar ne bhi market ko neeche ki taraf dhaka diya. Supply disruption ko rokne ke liye, America ne Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) ke liye 6 million barrels ka oil khareeda hai. Isi dauran, ek preliminary Reuters survey ke mutabiq, U.S. crude aur fuel inventories mein bhi guzishta hafte girawat ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. Agar technical hisaab se dekhein toh $65.51 se $73.26 tak ka uptrend ab ruk gaya hai aur 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level se pehle hi thak gaya hai. Bulls ab $67.65 par support ko protect karne par tawajjo de rahe hain. Agar prices is level ke neeche girti hain, toh phir mazeed girawat dekhi ja sakti hai, jisme pehla major support $67.35 ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh daily close ke neeche jata hai, toh prices $65.50 aur hatta ke $60 tak bhi gir sakti hain. Uper ki taraf, price ko resistance $70.00 ke qareeb ka samna ho sakta hai, aur agla major resistance $71.50 ke area ke aas paas hai. Agar price is se upar jata hai toh $72.20 tak bhi pahunchne ke chances hain. Mazeed barhawa $73.25 ka test demand karega. Poore scenario mein, crude oil ke prices mein kaafi utar chadhav hai, jo supply aur demand ke mukhtalif factors se mutasir hain. Market mein filhal girawat hai, lekin mazeed developments ka asar recovery par ho sakta hai. Stochastic indicator upward point kar raha hai, jo kuch contradiction show kar raha hai, lekin $65.36 ka last low wapas dekha ja sakta hai. Agar yeh low update hota hai, toh bullish "butterfly" pattern banne ke asar hain, jo aik upward reversal ki nishani ho sakti hai. Agar price neeche Bollinger Band ko hit karke wapas upar bounces hota hai, toh pehla wave of growth $72.07 ke aas paas lower MA ki taraf hoga. Phir dekha jayega ke price mazeed upar ja sakti hai ya nahi. Agar price uper jata hai, toh growth ka agla step upper MA aur middle Bollinger Band ke range mein $75.33–$76.57 tak ho sakta hai. Wahan dekhna hoga ke price mazeed barh sakti hai ya resistance ke samne aake neeche aa jati hai.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil ke prices ne do consecutive sessions ke liye thodi si growth dikhayi hai, aur filhal Tuesday ke European market hours ke dauran $71.60 per barrel ke aas-paas trade ho rahi hain. Lekin yeh upward movement OPEC+ ke oil production strategies mein tabdeeli ke concerns ke darmiyan aa rahi hai, jahan reports ke mutabiq agle quarter mein output barhane par ghoor kiya ja raha hai.
Geopolitical Disruptions aur OPEC+ ki Speculations: Oil Supply aur Prices par Asar

Bloomberg ke mutabiq, Libya se ek achanak supply disruption se oil ki availability mein kafi kami aasakti hai, jahan Rapidan Energy Group ke consultants ne andaza lagaya hai ke 1 million barrels per day ka potential loss ho sakta hai. Yeh figure global oil supply ka takreeban 1% hai, jo dikhata hai ke geopolitical events ka market stability par kitna bara asar ho sakta hai. Iske ilawa, Indonesia ki state-owned Pertamina November ke delivery ke liye Russian oil ke 5 million barrels khareedne ki tayari kar rahi hai, jaisa ke Reuters ne report kiya hai. Yeh tamam challenges barh rahe hain jab ke ek Greek-flagged tanker, Sounion, abhi bhi Red Sea mein jal raha hai. Yemen ke Houthi rebels ne rescue operations ki ijazat di hai, lekin halaat abhi bhi naazuk hain.

Oil prices ko affect karne wala central issue yeh hai ke OPEC+ ke aath member states ke baare mein yeh speculation barh rahi hai ke woh jald hi apne voluntary production cuts ko unwind kar sakte hain, jo pehle June mein announce kiye gaye thay. Ab tak market participants yeh maan rahe thay ke yeh countries production increase mein dair karengi, market ki halat ko madde nazar rakhte hue. Lekin jitni dair yeh cuts lage rahenge, oil prices utni zyada downward pressure ke liye vulnerable ho sakti hain.

Current Market Dynamics aur WTI Oil ke Key Price Levels

Thursday ke early European session ke dauran, WTI prices mein thoda positive bias dekhne ko mil raha hai, aur yeh $71.50 per barrel mark ke upar hover kar rahi hain. Is minor uptick ke bawajood, market mein strong bullish momentum ki kami hai, aur prices year-to-date lows ke kareeb hain, jo ke $65.26 hain, jo sirf ek din pehle tak pohanch gayi thi. Yeh trend is baat ko darshaata hai ke pichlay do mahine mein jo downtrend dekhne ko mila hai, woh barqaraar reh sakta hai.

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Market analysts kuch critical price levels ko closely monitor kar rahe hain, jo future movements ke liye signal de sakti hain. Sabse pehla significant resistance level $72.27 hai, jo regain karna zaroori hai. Agar prices is threshold ko break kar leti hain, to attention double level par shift hogi jo $71.31 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke ek descending trendline aur 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke sath align karta hai. Agar is point ke upar successful breakout hota hai, to 100-day SMA, jo filhal $71.25 par hai, ek resistance barrier ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai.




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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil ke prices ne do consecutive sessions ke liye thodi si growth dikhayi hai, aur filhal Tuesday ke European market hours ke dauran $71.60 per barrel ke aas-paas trade ho rahi hain. Lekin yeh upward movement OPEC+ ke oil production strategies mein tabdeeli ke concerns ke darmiyan aa rahi hai, jahan reports ke mutabiq agle quarter mein output barhane par ghoor kiya ja raha hai. **Geopolitical Disruptions aur OPEC+ ki Speculations: Oil Supply aur Prices par Asar** Bloomberg ke mutabiq, Libya se ek achanak supply disruption se oil ki availability mein kafi kami aasakti hai, jahan Rapidan Energy Group ke consultants ne andaza lagaya hai ke 1 million barrels per day ka potential loss ho sakta hai. Yeh figure global oil supply ka takreeban 1% hai, jo dikhata hai ke geopolitical events ka market stability par kitna bara asar ho sakta hai. Iske ilawa, Indonesia ki state-owned Pertamina November ke delivery ke liye Russian oil ke 5 million barrels khareedne ki tayari kar rahi hai, jaisa ke Reuters ne report kiya hai. Yeh tamam challenges barh rahe hain jab ke ek Greek-flagged tanker, Sounion, abhi bhi Red Sea mein jal raha hai. Yemen ke Houthi rebels ne rescue operations ki ijazat di hai, lekin halaat abhi bhi naazuk hain. Oil prices ko affect karne wala central issue yeh hai ke OPEC+ ke aath member states ke baare mein yeh speculation barh rahi hai ke woh jald hi apne voluntary production cuts ko unwind kar sakte hain, jo pehle June mein announce kiye gaye thay. Ab tak market participants yeh maan rahe thay ke yeh countries production increase mein dair karengi, market ki halat ko madde nazar rakhte hue. Lekin jitni dair yeh cuts lage rahenge, oil prices utni zyada downward pressure ke liye vulnerable ho sakti hain. **Current Market Dynamics aur WTI Oil ke Key Price Levels** Thursday ke early European session ke dauran, WTI prices mein thoda positive bias dekhne ko mil raha hai, aur yeh $71.50 per barrel mark ke upar hover kar rahi hain. Is minor uptick ke bawajood, market mein strong bullish momentum ki kami hai, aur prices year-to-date lows ke kareeb hain, jo ke $65.26 hain, jo sirf ek din pehle tak pohanch gayi thi. Yeh trend is baat ko darshaata hai ke pichlay do mahine mein jo downtrend dekh

Crude oil ke daam Wednesday ko thoda barh gaye, jahan Brent crude futures 45 cents, ya 0.6%, barh kar $76.93 per barrel ho gaye. Is ke muqabil, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude 47 cents, ya 0.6%, barh kar $73.67 per barrel ho gaya. Halankeh ye bullish move tha, Brent crude ke daam phir bhi saat mahine ke low ke qareeb hain, jo ke kam demand aur U.S. recession ke mumkinah khatrey ki wajah se pressure mein hain. Is haftay ke aghaz mein, Brent crude futures ne apna sab se kam level achieve kiya jo ke January ke shuruat se tha, jab ke WTI futures ne February ke baad se sab se kam level par pohnch gaye. Ye girawat stock market ki broader rout ka hissa thi, jo ke kamzor jobs data ke baad U.S. recession ke mumkinah khatrey ki wajah se shuru hui thi. Naye data ke mutabiq, Chinese trade data ne dikhaya ke daily crude oil imports July mein September 2022 ke baad se sab se kam ho gaye. U.S. data ne bhi unexpected increase ko crude oil aur gasoline inventories mein dikhaya. Market sources ne Tuesday ko American Petroleum Institute ke data ka zikr kiya, jisme U.S. crude oil, gasoline, aur distillate inventories mein izafa dekha gaya.
Total mein, oil prices ka base case kamzor demand growth ke concerns se dominate ho raha hai. China se naye data ne trade balance mein sharp drop dikhaya, daily crude oil imports ko nearly do saal ke sab se kam level par le aaya. Ye, U.S. economy ke slowdown ke signals ke saath, oil prices par niche ki taraf pressure badha raha hai.
WTI prices sell mode mein hain, jahan prices descending triangle ke top se rebound karne ke baad girti ja rahi hain. Prices ab triangle ke bottom ke qareeb $68.20 per barrel pohnch rahi hain. 100 SMA, 200 SMA se upar hai, jo ke uptrend ke liye ek mazboot resistance path ko suggest karta hai, ya phir support area ki taraf ek pullback ka bhi indication hai. Dusri taraf, crude oil dono moving averages ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke triangle ke top ke qareeb dynamic resistance ka kaam kar raha hai.
Stochastics oscillator oversold territory se nikalne ke liye tayaar lag raha hai, jo bullish momentum ke waapas aane ka signal de raha hai, aur oscillator ke paas buyers ke thakne se pehle uthane ka kafi space hai. RSI ne abhi tak oversold territory nahi cross ki, lekin ye bhi north move karne ke liye tayaar lag raha hai, jo ke bullish trend ke waapas aane ka indication hai

Crude Oil ne apni moderate recovery continue rakhi, aur naye local highs set kiye. Price ne reversal level tak jaldi strength gain ki signal zone mein. Is dauran, jo expected decline recovery thi, wo nahi hui. Chart abhi tak supertrend green zone mein hai, jo buyers ki taraf se pressure ko indicate karta hai.
US Dollar Index 100.85 points ke comparison mein gir kar 100.58 points par a gaya. Aik aur indicator, jo US ki future economic conditions ko measure karta hai, wo lagbhag 5 points gir kar 81.7 points tak chala gaya, lekin abhi bhi 80 points level se upar hai. Respondents ka share jo yeh expect karte hain ke Fed aglay saal interest rates raise karega, wo gir kar 46.5% par aa gaya hai. Tuesday ko markets mixed rahi jab China ne aik massive fiscal package announce kiya economic performance ko boost karne ke liye, jo yeh batata hai ke duniya ki doosri bari economy pressure mein hai. Shayad China apne growth targets iss saal meet na kar sake.

Crude oil ki qeemat abhi tak bearish direction mein move kar rahi hai, aur ye expect nahi kiya ja raha ke movement zyada strong hogi. Jo price increase dikhai de raha hai, wo sirf aik secondary response hai, jo lower high bana kar phir se niche girne ka signal de raha hai, jisse aik naya lower low create hoga. Jo price girne ka rally thi, us ne support (S1) 65.41 ko hit kiya lekin wahan false break ya rejection ka samna karna pada aur phir se upar chali gayi. Correction phase mein gain ke bawajood price pivot point (PP) 69.90 ko touch karne ke baad zyada upar nahi ja saki. Aik bearish engulfing candlestick pattern bhi mojood hai, jo ke price ke mazeed niche jaane ka signal de raha hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ko dekhte hue, histogram jo level 0 ya positive area mein hai, aik upward trend dikhata hai. Yeh response hai corrected price movement ka, lekin volume itna zyada nahi hai. Price ka pehla trend pivot point (PP) 69.90 ya EMA 50 ke ird gird consolidate karne ka ho sakta hai, rather than ke resistance (R1) 72.64 tak jaari rahe. Stochastic indicator ke parameters ke zariye overbought zone mein do dafa cross hone par, jo levels 90 aur 80 hain, purchasing saturation point ko dikhaya ja raha hai. Yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke crude oil ki qeemat ke niche girne ka achha chance hai instead of upar jaane ke. Agar lower low-lower high structure aur price movement ka bearish trend waise hi rahta hai, toh trading option ko selling par focus karna chahiye. Position ka entry point pivot point (PP) 69.90 aur EMA 50 ke darmiyan hoga. Confirmation ke liye, aap wait kar sakte hain jab stochastic indicator ke parameters dobara overbought zone mein level 90–80 par cross karein. AO indicator ka volume histogram, jo uptrend momentum ko dikhata hai, kam ho sakta hai jab level 0 ke qareeb aayega.
Bloomberg ke mutabiq, Libya se ek achanak supply disruption se oil ki availability mein kafi kami aasakti hai, jahan Rapidan Energy Group ke consultants ne andaza lagaya hai ke 1 million barrels per day ka potential loss ho sakta hai. Yeh figure global oil supply ka takreeban 1% hai, jo dikhata hai ke geopolitical events ka market stability par kitna bara asar ho sakta hai. Iske ilawa, Indonesia ki state-owned Pertamina November ke delivery ke liye Russian oil ke 5 million barrels khareedne ki tayari kar rahi hai, jaisa ke Reuters ne report kiya hai. Yeh tamam challenges barh rahe hain jab ke ek Greek-flagged tanker, Sounion, abhi bhi Red Sea mein jal raha hai. Yemen ke Houthi rebels ne rescue operations ki ijazat di hai, lekin halaat abhi bhi naazuk hain.
Oil prices ko affect karne wala central issue yeh hai ke OPEC+ ke aath member states ke baare mein yeh speculation barh rahi hai ke woh jald hi apne voluntary production cuts ko unwind kar sakte hain, jo pehle June mein announce kiye gaye thay. Ab tak market participants yeh maan rahe thay ke yeh countries production increase mein dair karengi, market ki halat ko madde nazar rakhte hue. Lekin jitni dair yeh cuts lage rahenge, oil prices utni zyada downward pressure ke liye vulnerable ho sakti hain.

Crude oil ke daam Wednesday ko thoda barh gaye, jahan Brent crude futures 45 cents, ya 0.6%, barh kar $76.93 per barrel ho gaye. Is ke muqabil, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude 47 cents, ya 0.6%, barh kar $73.67 per barrel ho gaya. Halankeh ye bullish move tha, Brent crude ke daam phir bhi saat mahine ke low ke qareeb hain, jo ke kam demand aur U.S. recession ke mumkinah khatrey ki wajah se pressure mein hain. Is haftay ke aghaz mein, Brent crude futures ne apna sab se kam level achieve kiya jo ke January ke shuruat se tha, jab ke WTI futures ne February ke baad se sab se kam level par pohnch gaye. Ye girawat stock market ki broader rout ka hissa thi, jo ke kamzor jobs data ke baad U.S. recession ke mumkinah khatrey ki wajah se shuru hui thi.
Naye data ke mutabiq, Chinese trade data ne dikhaya ke daily crude oil imports July mein September 2022 ke baad se sab se kam ho gaye. U.S. data ne bhi unexpected increase ko crude oil aur gasoline inventories mein dikhaya. Market sources ne Tuesday ko American Petroleum Institute ke data ka zikr kiya, jisme U.S. crude oil, gasoline, aur distillate inventories mein izafa dekha gaya.
Total mein, oil prices ka base case kamzor demand growth ke concerns se dominate ho raha hai. China se naye data ne trade balance mein sharp drop dikhaya, daily crude oil imports ko nearly do saal ke sab se kam level par le aaya. Ye, U.S. economy ke slowdown ke signals ke saath, oil prices par niche ki taraf pressure badha raha hai.
WTI prices sell mode mein hain, jahan prices descending triangle ke top se rebound karne ke baad girti ja rahi hain. Prices ab triangle ke bottom ke qareeb $68.20 per barrel pohnch rahi hain. 100 SMA, 200 SMA se upar hai, jo ke uptrend ke liye ek mazboot resistance path ko suggest karta hai, ya phir support area ki taraf ek pullback ka bhi indication hai. Dusri taraf, crude oil dono moving averages ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke triangle ke top ke qareeb dynamic resistance ka kaam kar raha hai.
Stochastics oscillator oversold territory se nikalne ke liye tayaar lag raha hai, jo bullish momentum ke waapas aane ka signal de raha hai, aur oscillator ke paas buyers ke thakne se pehle uthane ka kafi space hai. RSI ne abhi tak oversold territory nahi cross ki, lekin ye bhi north move karne ke liye tayaar lag raha hai, jo ke bullish trend ke waapas aane ka indication hai

Oil ne tezi se ooncha udaaya aur main ab tak nahi samajh sakta ke is taraqqi ka asal sabab kya tha. Agar main ghalat nahi hoon, to 16:45 Moscow waqt par US industrial sector ki haalat par mazboot maashi data jari kiya gaya, aur isi waqt oil ki qeemat barhni shuru hui. Agar aap H4 chart par dhyan se dekhen, to aapko do hareer rang ki char ghante ki candles nazar aayengi. Pehle, naya daily local minimum 66.35 se rebound hua, aur phir US maashiyat ki khabrein aayi, jis se oil ne waqai mein ooncha udaaya aur 72.00 tak pohanch gaya. Lekin kharidaaron ko is qeemat se upar jaane nahi diya gaya aur oil ne corrective decline shuru ki. Agar hum H4 chart kholain, to dekhte hain ke pehle ek mazboot downward price channel bana tha, jisme black gold ka kaam hota hai. H4 chart par ek misaal structure ubhar raha hai, jo humne pehle dekha tha jab decline wave banni shuru hui thi aur uski aadhi formation ke doran wave ko waise hi aggressive growth ne toota diya tha, jo channel ki upper border par khatam hua. Ab ek misaal kuch aisi hi hai aur zaidah mumkin hai ke 70.72 ke maujooda levels se agar resistance line se doobara rebound hota hai, to oil apni giraawat jaari rakhega aur ek nai decline wave banaega. Bechne walon ka maqsad 65.20 par pehle ke local minimum ka doobara test karna hoga. Kal CL ne 71.93 tak growth dikhai, jo H1 TF bullish ko todti hai, aur bearish H4 TF ke break zone ki lower border tak pohanchne ki ijaazat di. Yahan se rebound hone par qeemat 69.72 tak gir gayi, jahan se phir se growth shuru hui taake kal ke high ko paar kiya ja sake, jo #CL ko bearish H4 TF ke break zone ki upper border 73.60 tak le ja sakta hai, yahan se rebound hone par decline hoga. Bearish H4 TF ka break hone par growth H1 pivot 75.00 tak jaari rahegi, lekin 77.00 ke upar consolidate hone se Daily TF ka bearish nature khatrey mein aa jayega.

Crude oil ke daam Asian session mein Tuesday ko neeche gaye, kuch mukhtalif factors ki wajah se. OPEC+ ke oil production barhane ka intazar tha aur Saudi Arabia ne bhi production shuru karne ka faisla kiya, chahe is se daam me waqti tor pe girawat hi kyun na ho. Iske ilawa, duniya bhar mein kamzor demand growth, khaaskar China se, aur manufacturing activity ke hawalay se fikar ne bhi market ko neeche ki taraf dhaka diya. Supply disruption ko rokne ke liye, America ne Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) ke liye 6 million barrels ka oil khareeda hai. Isi dauran, ek preliminary Reuters survey ke mutabiq, U.S. crude aur fuel inventories mein bhi guzishta hafte girawat ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. Agar technical hisaab se dekhein toh $65.51 se $73.26 tak ka uptrend ab ruk gaya hai aur 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level se pehle hi thak gaya hai. Bulls ab $67.65 par support ko protect karne par tawajjo de rahe hain. Agar prices is level ke neeche girti hain, toh phir mazeed girawat dekhi ja sakti hai, jisme pehla major support $67.35 ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh daily close ke neeche jata hai, toh prices $65.50 aur hatta ke $60 tak bhi gir sakti hain. Uper ki taraf, price ko resistance $70.00 ke qareeb ka samna ho sakta hai, aur agla major resistance $71.50 ke area ke aas paas hai. Agar price is se upar jata hai toh $72.20 tak bhi pahunchne ke chances hain. Mazeed barhawa $73.25 ka test demand karega. Poore scenario mein, crude oil ke prices mein kaafi utar chadhav hai, jo supply aur demand ke mukhtalif factors se mutasir hain. Market mein filhal girawat hai, lekin mazeed developments ka asar recovery par ho sakta hai. Stochastic indicator upward point kar raha hai, jo kuch contradiction show kar raha hai, lekin $65.36 ka last low wapas dekha ja sakta hai. Agar yeh low update hota hai, toh bullish "butterfly" pattern banne ke asar hain, jo aik upward reversal ki nishani ho sakti hai. Agar price neeche Bollinger Band ko hit karke wapas upar bounces hota hai, toh pehla wave of growth $72.07 ke aas paas lower MA ki taraf hoga. Phir dekha jayega ke price mazeed upar ja sakti hai ya nahi. Agar price uper jata hai, toh growth ka agla step upper MA aur middle Bollinger Band ke range mein $75.33–$76.57 tak ho sakta hai. Wahan dekhna hoga ke price mazeed barh sakti hai ya resistance ke samne aake neeche aa jati hai.

Monday ko market mein ek bearish emotion tha, lekin aaj market ka direction ulta lag raha hai, kyun ke price ne four-hour chart par effortlessly ek acha southern candle close kiya hai. Guzishta trading week mein #CL ke liye apna maximum update karna mushkil tha, lekin humari rising trajectory ko dekhte hue kuch rationale nazar aata hai. Phir bhi, is hafte ka increase zyada pleasant ho sakta hai, aur 70.70 ke support level se buy karne ka acha chance mil sakta hai. Mujhe yeh bhi lagta hai ke price in levels se niche gir sakta hai aur agla target 68.75 tak jaa sakta hai. Agar bears is level ke niche aur strong ho gaye, toh main $65.27 per barrel ka drop dekhunga. H1 chart par, Europe se aane wali negative economic data oil ko rebound mein madad de sakti hai, lekin US se aane wali negative data demand ko kam kar ke Middle East concerns ke price premium ko negate kar sakti hai. Agar hum chart ko enlarge karein, toh dekha ja sakta hai ke downward reaction ek blue-colored trend line se aa raha hai. Yeh trend line ka chautha touch ho chuka hai, aur sellers ke liye kaafi successful tha, jo ke lagbhag 300 points ka drop ka chance deta hai. Ab hum dekhte hain ke black oil price kal ke downward pattern se break kar raha hai, aur local maximum 71.81 tak chhuta hai. Yeh dobara climb hone ka indication hai, aur main apne goal level 71.08 ka intezar kar raha hoon. Options limited hain, lekin oil ne is direction mein kaafi progress ki hai, toh chance abhi bhi exist karta hai. Ye overall aapki current market analysis ka ek tafseel hai, aur future price movements ko dhyan mein rakh kar aapko trading decisions lene ka acha moka mil sakta hai.

Crude Oil ka Technical Analysis
Crude oil price ne resistance 75.99 pe face kiya aur wahan se ek sharp decline start hui, lekin support 71.92 pe mil gaya, jo kisi further breakouts ko rokta hai aur price ko wapis upwards reversal ki taraf le aaya. Lekin, is dafa price apne target area tak nahi pohoch saka, jo ke abhi bhi viable hai. Iska matlab ye hai ke expected development ka kuch hissa hi complete hua hai. Meanwhile, price chart wapis super-trend green zone mein aa gaya hai, jo indicate karta hai ke buyers ne control dobara se haasil kar liya hai.

Technically hum abhi bearish hain trades pe, lekin hum cautious hain, aur rely kar rahe hain un negative simple moving average crossovers pe jo ke price ko upar se pressure mein dal rahe hain. Iske ilawa, previous break of 70.50 ne trading ko thori stability di hai. Aane wale ghanton mein, agar support 69.20 ka clear break hota hai to hum ek bearish trend dekh sakte hain, jahan pe humara pehla target 68.65 ho ga, jo ke high risk ki waja se hum aim kar rahe hain. Dusri taraf, agar 70.40 ka break hota hai aur price consolidation hoti hai, to hum ek official move higher dekh sakte hain, jisme targets 71.10 aur 71.95 tak ja sakte hain.



Is waqt price mixed trading kar raha hai, weekly lows hit karne ke baad local highs break karta nazar aata hai. Key support area heavy pressure mein aaya tha lekin break hone se bach gaya, aur recovery ne upward momentum ko relevant rakha. Price ko firmly consolidate karna hoga above 74.28 level pe, jo ke key support area ka border hai. Agar iss area ka ek aur retest hota hai aur subsequent rebound aata hai, to upward momentum ka aik naya chance milega, jahan target area 79.54 aur 82.22 ke darmiyan hoga.

Agar support ka break hota hai aur price 71.92 pivot level se neeche girti hai, to yeh current scenario ki cancellation ka signal ho ga.

Crude oil ki qeemat abhi tak bearish direction mein move kar rahi hai, aur ye expect nahi kiya ja raha ke movement zyada strong hogi. Jo price increase dikhai de raha hai, wo sirf aik secondary response hai, jo lower high bana kar phir se niche girne ka signal de raha hai, jisse aik naya lower low create hoga. Jo price girne ka rally thi, us ne support (S1) 65.41 ko hit kiya lekin wahan false break ya rejection ka samna karna pada aur phir se upar chali gayi. Correction phase mein gain ke bawajood price pivot point (PP) 69.90 ko touch karne ke baad zyada upar nahi ja saki. Aik bearish engulfing candlestick pattern bhi mojood hai, jo ke price ke mazeed niche jaane ka signal de raha hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ko dekhte hue, histogram jo level 0 ya positive area mein hai, aik upward trend dikhata hai. Yeh response hai corrected price movement ka, lekin volume itna zyada nahi hai. Price ka pehla trend pivot point (PP) 69.90 ya EMA 50 ke ird gird consolidate karne ka ho sakta hai, rather than ke resistance (R1) 72.64 tak jaari rahe. Stochastic indicator ke parameters ke zariye overbought zone mein do dafa cross hone par, jo levels 90 aur 80 hain, purchasing saturation point ko dikhaya ja raha hai. Yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke crude oil ki qeemat ke niche girne ka achha chance hai instead of upar jaane ke. Agar lower low-lower high structure aur price movement ka bearish trend waise hi rahta hai, toh trading option ko selling par focus karna chahiye. Position ka entry point pivot point (PP) 69.90 aur EMA 50 ke darmiyan hoga. Confirmation ke liye, aap wait kar sakte hain jab stochastic indicator ke parameters dobara overbought zone mein level 90–80 par cross karein. AO indicator ka volume histogram, jo uptrend momentum ko dikhata hai, kam ho sakta hai jab level 0 ke qareeb aayega. Bloomberg ke mutabiq, Libya se ek achanak supply disruption se oil ki availability mein kafi kami aasakti hai, jahan Rapidan Energy Group ke consultants ne andaza lagaya hai ke 1 million barrels per day ka potential loss ho sakta hai. Yeh figure global oil supply ka takreeban 1% hai, jo dikhata hai ke geopolitical events ka market stability par kitna bara asar ho sakta hai. Iske ilawa, Indonesia ki state-owned Pertamina November ke delivery ke liye Russian oil ke 5 million barrels khareedne ki tayari kar rahi hai, jaisa ke Reuters ne report kiya hai. Yeh tamam challenges barh rahe hain jab ke ek Greek-flagged tanker, Sounion, abhi bhi Red Sea mein jal raha hai. Yemen ke Houthi rebels ne rescue operations ki ijazat di hai, lekin halaat abhi bhi naazuk hain.
Oil prices ko affect karne wala central issue yeh hai ke OPEC+ ke aath member states ke baare mein yeh speculation barh rahi hai ke woh jald hi apne voluntary production cuts ko unwind kar sakte hain, jo pehle June mein announce kiye gaye thay. Ab tak market participants yeh maan rahe thay ke yeh countries production increase mein dair karengi, market ki halat ko madde nazar rakhte hue. Lekin jitni dair yeh cuts lage rahenge, oil prices utni zyada downward pressure ke liye vulnerable ho sakti hain.