جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold territory ke qareeb hai, jo ke yeh hint deta hai ke zyada downside limited ho sakti hai, jabke moving averages ek potential bearish crossover ka ishara kar rahe hain, jo seller dominance ko mazid barhata hai. Iske ilawa, Fibonacci retracement levels yeh batate hain ke next major support around 182.50 par hai, jo buyers ke liye ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activityClick image for larger version

### GBP/JPY Price Rally ka Tajziya

GBP/JPY ki ongoing price rally ne 193.21 ke resistance level ko paar kar liya hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke price movement ab FR 127.2 - 196.10 ki taraf jaye, jahan phir ek downward correction phase ka potential hai. Pehle kuch reversal signals ne price ko neeche ki taraf correct karne mein asafal raha, jo yeh darust karti hai ke downward movement ab tak nahi aayi. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke benchmark rate ko bina kisi jaan pehchaan ke banaye rakhne ka asar Japanese Yen ki currency par negative hai, jisse iska outlook kamzor ho gaya hai. Price ko FR 50 - 188.57 ya FR 61.8 - 189.72 par girne ka mauka milna chahiye tha, lekin tab tak trend direction abhi bhi bearish tha.

Ab, EMA 50 aur SMA 200 ke beech golden cross signal ki aamad ke saath, bullish trend direction ki taraf price movement ka projecction hai. Yeh bullish trend ab price ko upar ki taraf le jane ki taraf ishara karta hai.

### Price Pattern ki Structure ka Tabdeel

Price pattern ka structure bhi tab badal gaya jab resistance 193.21 ko paar kar diya gaya. High price 193.45 par structure ka break hua, jo lower low - lower high structure ke liye invalidation level hai. Is wajah se, jab downward correction phase aata hai, toh price higher low pattern banane par majboor ho jayega, jo ke EMA 50 ya FR 78.6 - 191.36 ke qareeb ho sakta hai.

Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke nazariye se dekha jaye toh histogram volume GBP/JPY pair ki price volume ke saath mutabiqat nahi rakhta. Halankeh yeh uptrend momentum dikhata hai, magar ismein bearish divergence signal ka indication hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jab overbought zone mein level 90 - 80 par pahunche, toh yeh buying saturation point ke qareeb hone ki taraf ishara karta hai.

### Setup Entry Position

Trading options mein golden cross signal ka aana bullish trend direction ko darust karta hai aur structure break bhi ho chuka hai. Is liye, ab BUY moment ka intezar karna chahiye. Entry position ko 193.21 ke resistance par price ke neeche correction hone par rakha ja sakta hai. Confirmation tab milega jab Stochastic indicator ke parameters level 50 ke ird gird cross karte hain. AO indicator histogram ko level 0 ya positive area ke upar wide rehna chahiye, taake bearish divergence signal invalid ho sake.

Target profit ke liye FR 127.2 - 196.10 ka istemal karna chahiye aur stop loss ko FR 78.6 - 191.36 par rakhna chahiye. Is tarah se trading strategy ko behtar banaya ja sakta hai, jab tak market ki conditions bullish rahengi.
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GBP/JPY pair ne Shunichi Uchida ke kehne par 2% se zyada ka izafa kiya, jab unhone Hakodate mein local leaders ko bataya ke recent global market ki volatility aur July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne apne taqreer mein kaha: "Japan ki economy aisi nahi hai ke bank ko interest rates barhane ki zarurat ho agar yeh ek certain pace par nahi barhate. Is liye, bank financial aur capital markets unstable hone par interest rates nahi barhaye ga." Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko dusri baar interest rates barhaye aur kaha ke agar inflation aur economic growth aane wale mahino mein unki umeedon ke mutabiq hui to wo phir se barha sakte hain. Yeh efforts aur 11 July ko hui official intervention ke asraat ke saath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke badhte huye carry trade ka reversal ho gaya jo pehle yen par bohot bhari pada tha. Forex trading ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY ne July mein apne peak se trough tak 13% se zyada girawat dekhi jab yen-funded carry trade unwind hua aur market ne Bank of Japan se is saal ke baad additional rate hikes ki pricing ki. Magar, yen ki recent rise ke sath global markets mein mounting losses dekhi gayi, jahan Nikkei index ne is hafte ke Monday ko ek din mein 10% se zyada girawat dekhi.
Uchida ne kaha: “Financial aur capital markets ne US dollar ki tezi se kamzori aur stock prices ka global decline dekha hai, jo US economy ke slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se hai. Jaise hi yen ki depreciation theek hui hai, import prices se high inflation ka risk kam ho gaya hai.”
Lekin, sirf global volatility hi Japanese interest rate hikes ko kam mumkin nahi banati, Uchida ne yeh bhi zikr kiya ke yen ki recovery bhi inflation ke risk ko kam kar rahi hai. Event aur uske asraat par comment karte hue, Elias Haddad, senior global markets analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman, ne kaha: “Bank of Japan ab damage control mein masroof hai. Apni hawkish policies par badhte hue tanqeed ke saath, BOJ ab aane wale 12 mahino mein sirf 15 basis points ki rate hike ka imkaan de raha hai, jabke pehle yeh 50 basis points expected tha.”
Uchida ke comments aur yen ki losses iske stunning rally ko khatam kar sakti hain aur currency ko further declines ke liye position mein daal sakti hain jo USD/JPY aur GBP/JPY jaise pairs ko upar le aa sakti hain. Yeh khaaskar tab mumkin hai agar global markets stabilize hoti hain, jo investors ko carry trades mein phir se engage karne par
GBP/JPY pair ki price volume ke saath mutabiqat nahi rakhta. Halankeh yeh uptrend momentum dikhata hai, magar ismein bearish divergence signal ka indication hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jab overbought zone mein level 90 - 80 par pahunche, toh yeh buying saturation point ke qareeb hone ki taraf ishara karta hai.

GBP/JPY ka movement MA 200 se kaafi upar tha, jo ke ek aur zyada ahmiyat wala bullish trend ka ishara de raha tha. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein is strength aur trend ko monitor karna dilchasp hoga. Mera andaza hai ke ye barhti hui power aur reversal moment aage chal kar ek aur ziyata significant bullish movement ko janam de sakti hai. Ye bhi mumkin hai ke bullish movement ka ye significant power agle hafte ke aaghaz mein barqarar rahe. Horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ka break hona ye tasdeeq karta hai ke GBP/JPY apne bullish trend ko aur ziyata significant tor pe barqarar rakhega. Is waqt tak, bullish movement resistance level ke aas paas hi hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein ye dekhna interesting hoga ke kab bullish movement horizontal line resistance level ko pori tarah break karegi. Agar aisa hota hai, to strong bullish movement ko resistance level 191.56 ke upar dekha ja sakega, jiska potential bullish target 193.30 resistance level ho sakta hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein jo cheezain madde nazar rakhni hain, wo 161.10 - 160.91 ka area hai agar strengthening jari rehti hai. Agar ye area successfully break ho jata hai, to ek rally ka imkaan hai jisme ke price 163.73 tak barh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 161.10 ka area penetrate karne mein nakam hoti hai aur EMA 200 H4 se reject hone ki tasdeeq hoti hai, to price mein kamzori ka imkaan hai
Technical analysis ke principle "the trend is your friend" ke mutabiq, yeh pair apni upward journey jari rakhne ki umeed hai. Lekin, is bullish trend ko confirm karne ke liye 193.49 ke resistance line ke upar ek decisive breakout zaroori hoga. Aik decisive breakout ki pehchan ek lambi green candle se hogi jo apni high par close karegi, ya phir lagataar 3 green candles jo is level ke upar close hongi. Halanke, medium-term trend ab tak sideways hai, jo ke kisi bhi direction mein koi wazeh bias nahi de raha. Iske baraks, long-term trend ab tak bullish hai, jo ke yeh darshaata hai ke upward momentum abhi bhi likely hai.



GBP/JPY pair ne recently higher trade kiya, aur aham resistance (ab support) level 188.00 ke upar successful break kiya. Yeh breakthrough ek higher high ko confirm karta hai 183.70 par, jo ke bearish scenario ko negate karta hai. Magar, ab tak price crucial 193.50 area ke neeche hai, jo ke yeh darshaata hai ke overall outlook ab tak poori tarah bullish nahi hua. Oscillators mazeed insights de rahe hain market sentiment ke baare mein. RSI aur MACD dono higher highs dikha rahe hain, jahan RSI ne 50 balance line ke upar break kiya. MACD, jo ke ab tak negative hai, trigger line ke upar chala gaya hai, jo ke momentum mein shift ka ishara de raha hai.
Agar bulls price ko 193.50 handle ke upar push karne mein kaamyab hotay hain, to outlook bilkul bullish ho sakta hai. Aisi movement moving averages ke upar ek break ke liye raah bana sakti hai, jo ke ek significant upward trajectory ki taraf le jaa sakti hai. Is se pehle, yeh pair 197.00 area tak pohanch sakta hai, aur agar is level ke upar break hota hai, to bulls ka next target July 30 ka high 199.50 ho sakta hai.

GBP/JPY ka bullish movement ne horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ko break kar diya, jo ke ek trend reversal ka indication tha. Bullish power ne GBP/JPY pair mein bhi zyada strength dikhai, jo kay chand dino tak barh rahi thi. MA 200 ke against ek breakout moment bhi nazar aya, jo ke bullish power ki ahmiyat mein izafa ka tasdeeq kar raha tha. GBP/JPY ka movement MA 200 se kaafi upar tha, jo ke ek aur zyada ahmiyat wala bullish trend ka ishara de raha tha. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein is strength aur trend ko monitor karna dilchasp hoga. Mera andaza hai ke ye barhti hui power aur reversal moment aage chal kar ek aur ziada significant bullish movement ko janam de sakti hai. Ye bhi mumkin hai ke bullish movement ka ye significant power agle hafte ke aaghaz mein barqarar rahe. Horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ka break hona ye tasdeeq karta hai ke GBP/JPY apne bullish trend ko aur ziada significant tor pe barqarar rakhega. Is waqt tak, bullish movement resistance level ke aas paas hi hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein ye dekhna interesting hoga ke kab bullish movement horizontal line resistance level ko pori tarah break karegi. Agar aisa hota hai, to strong bullish movement ko resistance level 191.56 ke upar dekha ja sakega, jiska potential bullish target 193.30 resistance level ho sakta hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein jo cheezain madde nazar rakhni hain, wo 161.10 - 160.91 ka area hai agar strengthening jari rehti hai. Agar ye area successfully break ho jata hai, to ek rally ka imkaan hai jisme ke price 163.73 tak barh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 161.10 ka area penetrate karne mein nakam hoti hai aur EMA 200 H4 se reject hone ki tasdeeq hoti hai, to price mein kamzori ka imkaan hai jisme ke target EMA 12 H4 line tak hoga, phir EMA 36 H4 tak ja sakta hai. Iss area mein buyers momentum ka intezaar kar sakte hain ke wo wapas aaye aur phir se buy positions open karein. GBP/JPY pair mein Jumay ke roz kaafi bara izafa dekhne ko mila, jahan yeh 191.80s ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo aik quarter percentage point se zyada ka surge tha. Yeh izafa kuch aham macroeconomic data aur events ke nateeja mein aaya jo dono currencies par musbat asar dal rahe thay. UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ke mutabiq, August mein UK retail sales 1.0% barh gayi, jo umeed se zyada thi (0.4%) aur July ke 0.5% ke izafay se bhi zyada thi. Is ka matlab hai ke UK ke shoppers ab bhi ziada kharcha kar rahe hain

Main aksar apne reliable trading recommendations page par mid-July trading mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis share karoon ga. Aap meri technical analysis mein improvements karne ke liye bilkul free hain

batata hai ke pound yen ke muqable mein accha perform kar raha hai. Yeh upward movement technical aur shayad kuch fundamental factors ki wajah se support ho rahi hai, jo ke traders ke liye dekhne layak hai. Ek ahem technical signal jo bullish outlook ko support kar raha hai, wo moving average lines ka position hai. Khaaskar 50-period aur 100-period moving averages jo ke abhi ke price se neeche hain, yeh ongoing uptrend ki mazbooti ki tasdeeq karti hain. Jab price in key moving averages se upar hoti hai, to yeh dikhata hai ke buyers market par control mein hain aur market kareeb waqt mein ziada upar jane ka imkaan hai. Yeh ek classic bullish market indicator hai, jo traders ko upward momentum par confidence deta hai.Iske ilawa, price support levels ko bhi respect karti hui nazar aa rahi hai, har pullback ke baad naya buying pressure dekha gaya hai. Is se ek series of higher lows banti hai, jo ke mazid strong bullish trend ka signal hai. Agar pair is upward trajectory ko barqarar rakhti hai, to traders agle key resistance level par nazar rakh sakte hain, jo ke 196.00 ke qareeb ho sakta hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to GBP/JPY pair mein mazeed gains ka imkaan hai, aur traders ke liye mazeed buying opportunities mil sakti hain.Lekin, har currency pair ki tarah, external factors ka khayal rakhna zaroori hai, jaise ke economic data releases, geopolitical events, ya central bank decisions. Yeh factors current trend ko ya to mazid mazboot ya kamzor kar sakte hain, is liye traders ko apni strategies ko adjust karne ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. GBP/JPY pair H1 time frame

GBP/JPY ka bullish movement ne horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ko break kar diya, jo ke ek trend reversal ka indication tha. Bullish power ne GBP/JPY pair mein bhi zyada strength dikhai, jo kay chand dino tak barh rahi thi. MA 200 ke against ek breakout moment bhi nazar aya, jo ke bullish power ki ahmiyat mein izafa ka tasdeeq kar raha tha. GBP/JPY ka movement MA 200 se kaafi upar tha, jo ke ek aur zyada ahmiyat wala bullish trend ka ishara de raha tha. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein is strength aur trend ko monitor karna dilchasp hoga. Mera andaza hai ke ye barhti hui power aur reversal moment aage chal kar ek aur ziada significant bullish movement ko janam de sakti hai. Ye bhi mumkin hai ke bullish movement ka ye significant power agle hafte ke aaghaz mein barqarar rahe. Horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ka break hona ye tasdeeq karta hai ke GBP/JPY apne bullish trend ko aur ziada significant tor pe barqarar rakhega. Is waqt tak, bullish movement resistance level ke aas paas hi hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein ye dekhna interesting hoga ke kab bullish movement horizontal line resistance level ko pori tarah break karegi. Agar aisa hota hai, to strong bullish movement ko resistance level 191.56 ke upar dekha ja sakega, jiska potential bullish target 193.30 resistance level ho sakta hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein jo cheezain madde nazar rakhni hain, wo 161.10 - 160.91 ka area hai agar strengthening jari rehti hai. Agar ye area successfully break ho jata hai, to ek rally ka imkaan hai jisme ke price 163.73 tak barh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 161.10 ka area penetrate karne mein nakam hoti hai aur EMA 200 H4 se reject hone ki tasdeeq hoti hai, to price mein kamzori ka imkaan hai jisme ke target EMA 12 H4 line tak hoga, phir EMA 36 H4 tak ja sakta hai. Iss area mein buyers momentum ka intezaar kar sakte hain ke wo wapas aaye aur phir se buy positions open karein. GBP/JPY pair mein Jumay ke roz kaafi bara izafa dekhne ko mila, jahan yeh 191.80s ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo aik quarter percentage point se zyada ka surge tha. Yeh izafa kuch aham macroeconomic data aur events ke nateeja mein aaya jo dono currencies par musbat asar dal rahe thay. UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ke mutabiq, August mein UK retail sales 1.0% barh gayi, jo umeed se zyada thi (0.4%) aur July ke

hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish

Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold territory ke qareeb hai, jo ke yeh hint deta hai ke zyada downside limited ho sakti hai, jabke moving averages ek potential bearish crossover ka ishara kar rahe hain, jo seller dominance ko mazid barhata hai. Iske ilawa, Fibonacci retracement levels yeh batate hain ke next major support around 182.50 par hai, jo buyers ke liye ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein

ka aik aham highlight housing projects ka wapas aana tha. Commercial activities mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, aur civil engineering sector ne aik saal aur aadhe ke arsay ke baad apni sabse zyada growth dekhi. Construction activities aur naye orders mein mazeed tausee hui, jo purchasing aur employment activities ko barhawa dene mein madadgar sabit hua. Yeh teesra musalsal mah tha jab is sector mein employment barh rahi thi.
Supply chains par daal gayi kafi pressure ki wajah se input costs mein tez izafa dekhne ko mila, lekin bawajood is ke, sector ki performance mazboot rahi. Aane wale mahino mein growth ke liye ek positive outlook hai, jo sector ke liye achi khabar hai.
### Financial Overview: Bond Yields aur Market Reactions

Agar financial perspective se dekha jaye, toh British 10-year Treasury bond yields mein izafa hua, jo ke pehle chhe mah ke lowest level tak gir gayi thi. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury notes ki yield 3.74% se barh ke 3.9% tak pohanch gayi. Is izafay ke peeche ke primary drivers U.S. services sector ka rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments the, jo ke market losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit huye.
### Currency Market Dynamics: GBP/JPY Trading Insights

Currency market mein traders GBP/JPY pair mein selling opportunities ko identify kar rahe hain. Agar 199.50 ka level breach hota hai, toh short-term bearish outlook invalid ho sakta hai, aur downside target 194.00 ho sakta hai. Ek effective trading strategy yeh ho sakti hai ke aap apni position ka aadha hissa 194.76 par close kar ke profits secure kar len, jab ke baqi position ko khula rakhain taake aage kisi mazeed downturn ka faida uthaya ja sake

Aaj ka din GBP/JPY market mein buyers ke haq mein reh sakta hai, lekin yeh bullish momentum zyada dair tak barqarar nahi rehne wala. Iska sabab yeh hai ke buyers pehle hi overbought zone mein pohanch chuke hain, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke upward movement ab zyada ho chuki hai. Jab market overbought condition mein hota hai, toh aksar yeh ishara hota hai ke ek reversal nazdeek hai. Is liye, hum dekh sakte hain ke market ka rujhan jald hi tabdeel ho sakta hai.
Main umeed karta hoon ke buyers aakhir kar wapas hatenge aur keemat support zone 189.78 ko cross kar legi agle chand ghanton mein. Kul mila kar, mera short target 189.84 par set hai, jo ek maqool near-term target lagta hai, kyun ke yeh expected downward movement ke saath align karta hai jab support level breach hota hai. Lekin, kisi bhi trade mein enter karte waqt ehtiyaat zaroori hai, isliye stop loss ka istemal karna bohot aham hai. Yeh risk management tool aapke capital ko bacha sakta hai agar market aapki position ke khilaf move kare, aur potential losses ko control mein rakhta hai. Aage chal kar, GBP/JPY ke sellers ke market pe qaboo paane ka imkan hai jab ke market dynamics shift hotay hain. Technical indicators is baat ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain ke buying force kamzor ho rahi hai, jo sellers ko mauqa de sakti hai ke woh prices ko neeche dhakel saken aur aakhir kar key support area ko cross kar len agle ghanton mein. Is bearish outlook mein ek aur aham factor Bank of Japan (BOJ) ki taraf se aanay wali khabrein hain, jo sellers ko mazid stability de rahi hain. BOJ ki monetary policy decisions aur koi bhi related statements JPY par bohot bara asar dal sakti hain, aur is case mein lagta hai ke yeh sellers ke haq mein kaam kar rahi hain aur unhein kuch momentum faraham kar rahi hain.
Aakhir mein, jab ke GBP/JPY abhi buyers ki territory mein hai, reversal ka imkan barh raha hai. Ek sell position kholna, target 189.84 ke saath, ek strategic move lagta hai, khaaskar jab stop loss protection ke liye rakha gaya ho, kyun ke sellers ke jald hi support area ko cross karne ki umeed hai.
On the hourly chart of the British Pound against the Japanese Yen, Monday started with an uptrend. The price reached the trading level of 186.462, and on Tuesday, this level was broken. A buy signal appears towards the resistance at 190.43. The breakout is confirmed on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the buy signal is executed. The price is now near the resistance level, and if this resistance is broken and the price closes above it, the next buying target will be the resistance at 192.354. However, if the price drops below the trading level of 186.462, it will be a sell signal with the target at the support level of 181.704.

GBP/JPY pair ne Shunichi Uchida ke kehne par 2% se zyada ka izafa kiya, jab unhone Hakodate mein local leaders ko bataya ke recent global market ki volatility aur July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne apne taqreer mein kaha: "Japan ki economy aisi nahi hai ke bank ko interest rates barhane ki zarurat ho agar yeh ek certain pace par nahi barhate. Is liye, bank financial aur capital markets unstable hone par interest rates nahi barhaye ga." Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko dusri baar interest rates barhaye aur kaha ke agar inflation aur economic growth aane wale mahino mein unki umeedon ke mutabiq hui to wo phir se barha sakte hain. Yeh efforts aur 11 July ko hui official intervention ke asraat ke saath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke badhte huye carry trade ka reversal ho gaya jo pehle yen par bohot bhari pada tha. Forex trading ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY ne July mein apne peak se trough tak 13% se zyada girawat dekhi jab yen-funded carry trade unwind hua aur market ne Bank of Japan se is saal ke baad additional rate hikes ki pricing ki. Magar, yen ki recent rise ke sath global markets mein mounting losses dekhi gayi, jahan Nikkei index ne is hafte ke Monday ko ek din mein 10% se zyada girawat dekhi. Uchida ne kaha: “Financial aur capital markets ne US dollar ki tezi se kamzori aur stock prices ka global decline dekha hai, jo US economy ke slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se hai GBP/JPY pair ke price movement ka direction ziada tar barhne ka imkaan hai. Magar, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price pehle niche correct ho kyun ke chalti hui rally kaafi impulsive hai. Kam az kam price niche correct ho ke RBS area ke qareeb aa sakta hai, jo ke 187.38 ke aas paas hai aur EMA 50 ke sath confluent hai. Agar downward correction EMA 50 ke neeche ho jata hai, toh price SMA 200 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke ek dynamic support ya phir low prices ka level 185.80 hai. Iske ilawa, jo upward rally ne 189.38 ke high prices ko touch kiya tha, usne ek minor higher high - higher low structure banaya hai. Ye isliye ke price ne structure tab break kiya jab price ne high prices 186.70 ko cross kiya aur phir 188.07 tak barhta raha. Agar hum dekhein ke price jo ke abhi niche gir raha hai, wo 183.74 ke low prices tak pohanch kar ruk gaya hai aur 183.69 ke neeche ek naya lower low nahi bana saka. Yani, yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke price ka downward correction sirf ek higher low pattern banane tak limited ho sakta hai. Yeh baat Stochastic indicator ke parameters se bhi supported hai jo overbought zone 90 - 80 ke level par cross kar chuka hai. Halankeh Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ka nazariya dikhata hai ke uptrend momentum GBP/JPY pair ki price increase rally ko support kar raha hai, magar ek downward correction phase ki zarurat hai taake agla price movement aur barh sake

GBP/JPY ka movement MA 200 se kaafi upar tha, jo ke ek aur zyada ahmiyat wala bullish trend ka ishara de raha tha. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein is strength aur trend ko monitor karna dilchasp hoga. Mera andaza hai ke ye barhti hui power aur reversal moment aage chal kar ek aur ziyata significant bullish movement ko janam de sakti hai. Ye bhi mumkin hai ke bullish movement ka ye significant power agle hafte ke aaghaz mein barqarar rahe. Horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ka break hona ye tasdeeq karta hai ke GBP/JPY apne bullish trend ko aur ziyata significant tor pe barqarar rakhega. Is waqt tak, bullish movement resistance level ke aas paas hi hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein ye dekhna interesting hoga ke kab bullish movement horizontal line resistance level ko pori tarah break karegi. Agar aisa hota hai, to strong bullish movement ko resistance level 191.56 ke upar dekha ja sakega, jiska potential bullish target 193.30 resistance level ho sakta hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein jo cheezain madde nazar rakhni hain, wo 161.10 - 160.91 ka area hai agar strengthening jari rehti hai. Agar ye area successfully break ho jata hai, to ek rally ka imkaan hai jisme ke price 163.73 tak barh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 161.10 ka area penetrate karne mein nakam hoti hai aur EMA 200 H4 se reject hone ki tasdeeq hoti hai, to price mein kamzori ka imkaan hai Technical analysis ke principle "the trend is your friend" ke mutabiq, yeh pair apni upward journey jari rakhne ki umeed hai. Lekin, is bullish trend ko confirm karne ke liye 193.49 ke resistance line ke upar ek decisive breakout zaroori hoga. Aik decisive breakout ki pehchan ek lambi green candle se hogi jo apni high par close karegi, ya phir lagataar 3 green candles jo is level ke upar close hongi. Halanke, medium-term trend ab tak sideways hai, jo ke kisi bhi direction mein koi wazeh bias nahi de raha. Iske baraks, long-term trend ab tak bullish hai, jo ke yeh darshaata