جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Aaj main GBP/USD market pair ka tajziya kar raha hoon jo agle hafte ke liye trading ka ikhtiyar hai. 4-hour time frame par graph ki dekhne se yeh pata chalta hai ke kal market ka halat 1.3311 ki price area se shuru hua aur 1.3433 ki taraf barhne ki koshish ki. Bullish trend kal tak, yani Thursday tak, jari raha. Yeh trading period lamba nahi tha lekin upward journey ko continue rakha. Agar aap pichle hafte ki market halat par nazar daalen, to yeh abhi bhi bullish hai.

Pichle hafte ke trading session mein, market ne ek wide range ke sath bullish trend dikhaya, jis se price hafte ke liye upar gaya lekin Saturday raat ko correction dekhi. Upar diya gaya bayan is baat ko darust karta hai ke market buyers ke control mein hai. Jab journal update kiya gaya, to price 1.3370 par ruki. Pichle do hafton mein, buyers jo abhi bhi mazboot asar rakhte hain, price ko upar push karne mein kaamyaab hue hain taake pichle mahine ke low zone se door ja sakein. Agle hafte ke liye, main tajziya karta hoon ke USD/JPY pair bullish market halat ko continue rakhega. Yeh mumkin hai ke price phir se high zone ki taraf barhe.

Agar aap pichle kuch hafton ke trend pattern ko dekhein, to market ek vast range mein upward trend dikhata hai. Rally ka upward journey itna strong nahi hai ya chhoti range mein hai, lekin yeh lagta hai ke rally agle hafte bhi jari rahegi, aur price forecasting bhi ab upward trend ki taraf hai. Aaj subah ka candlestick bearish correction position mein close hua lekin yeh ab bhi 100-period simple moving average zone ke upar hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke market bullish trend mein hai. Agar buyer price zone 1.3402 ko todne mein kaamyaab hote hain, to bullish trend agle hafte ke trading session mein bhi dominate kar sakta hai.

UK construction sector apni tareekhi bulandiyon par hai, jo ke Standard & Poor's Global ke tazay tareen data mein dekha ja sakta hai. UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) July 2024 ke liye 55.3 tak pahunch gaya hai, jo ke market expectations 52.7 se kaafi zyada hai aur June ke 52.2 se bhi bara hai. Yeh izafa construction sector mein ek bara mahinavi expansion ka izhar karta hai, aur yeh paanch mahiney se jari growth ka silsila hai. July mein record hui growth ki raftar May 2022 ke baad sab se tez thi.

Is mahine ki ek aham baat yeh thi ke housing projects phir se growth ki taraf aaye, aur commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila. Iske ilawa, civil engineering mein bhi do aur dedh saal ke arsay mein sab se bara expansion record hua. Is dauran, construction activity aur naye orders mein tez izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein teesray mahine tak izafa dekha gaya.

Magar, construction sector mein barhti hui demand ne supply chain par kaafi pressure daala hai, jisse input costs mein tez izafa hua hai. Supply-side challenges ke bawajood, sector ki overall performance mazboot hai aur aane walay mahino mein growth ka positive outlook hai.

Financial side par, British 10-year Treasury bond yields mein izafa dekha gaya, jab yeh apne chay mahiney ke sab se neechey level par tha. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury notes ki yield 3.74% se barh kar taqreeban 3.9% tak chali gayi. Yeh izafa U.S. services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad dekha gaya, jo ke market ke pehle losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit huay.

Currency market mein, traders GBP/JPY pair mein selling ka moqa dekh sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level se neechey break karti hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate karega. Is bearish move ka projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, behtar yeh hai ke 194.76 par aadhi position ko close kar liya jaye taa ke profits secure ho jayein, aur mazid downside ka moqa rahe.

Main ek experienced forex trader hoon, jo das saal se zyada ka market tajurba rakhta hoon. Pichlay do saalon mein maine kuch key strategies discover ki hain jo ke aaj aap sab ke saath share karna chahta hoon. Main apni technical analysis is forum mein pesh karne ka irada rakhta hoon aur aap sab ki tajurba kari se bhi koi suggestions ya improvements lena pasand karunga taake analysis ko mazeed behtar banaya ja sake.

**Technical Indicators aur GBP/USD ka Mukhafiq Mulk**
Technical indicators yeh darust karti hain ke aage chal kar qeematon mein izafa mumkin hai. Is silsile mein, qeemat ka amal yeh darust karta hai ke kharidaar, yaani "longs," 1.3395 ke level ke ird gird masroof rehne ki ummeed rakhte hain. Yeh level traders ke liye bohat ahmiyat rakhta hai jo aage chal kar qeemat ke izafe ki tawaqqo kar rahe hain. Lekin, bazar ki dynamics yeh bhi darust karti hain ke kisi fauri rollback ya pullback ki bhi mumkinat hain, is se pehle ke trend dobara apne upar ki taraf chalne lage.

**Upward Engulfing Pattern ko Samajhna**

Upward engulfing pattern tab banta hai jab ek choti bearish candlestick ke baad ek bari bullish candlestick aati hai, jo pichle din ke qeemat ke amal ko poori tarah "engulf" kar leti hai. Is pattern ko aksar reversal signal samjha jata hai, jo yeh darust karta hai ke downward trend apni taqat kho raha hai aur kharidaar bazar par kabza kar rahe hain. GBP/USD ke maamle mein, upward engulfing pattern yeh darust karta hai ke traders ke darmiyan pound ki dollar ke muqable mein mazid izafe ki tawaqqo hai.

1.3395 ka level is liye ahmiyat rakhta hai kyun ke yeh un traders ke liye ek ahm point hai jo kharidari mein masroof hain. Kharidaar jo GBP/USD mein long positions rakhtay hain, is level ko kharidne ya apni positions ko barhane ke liye attractive samajhte hain, kyun ke engulfing pattern yeh darust karta hai ke yahan se qeemat barhne ki ummeed hai. Lekin, broader market conditions aur kisi bhi mumkinah resistance levels ko bhi mad-e-nazar rakhna zaroori hai jo upar ki taraf movement ko rok sakti hain.

**Pullback ki M mumkinat**

Halankeh bullish signal hai, lekin kuch nishaniyan hain ke pullback ho sakta hai pehle ke qeemat apne upar ki taraf jaye. Short sellers, yaani "shorts," shayad 1.3310 ke level par profits hasil karna shuru karein, jo un logon ke liye ek dilchasp point ho sakta hai jo currency pair mein fauri kami ki tawaqqo kar rahe hain. Yeh pullback bazar ko consolidation ka mauqa de sakta hai, jo mazid taqat banane ke liye zaroori hai pehle ke qeemat un uchaiyon ki taraf barhne se pehle.

1.3340 ya 1.3370 tak ka rollback bhi mumkin hai, jahan short sellers shayad is baat ka faida uthane ki koshish karein ke qeemat apne upar ki taraf movement ko chhoti muddat mein barqarar nahi rakh sakti. Yeh levels support aur resistance ke tor par kaam karte hain, jahan price volatility barh sakti hai jab traders apni positions ke saath bazar ko influence karne ki koshish karte hain.

**Nazar Rakhne Wale Key Factors**

Kuch buniyadi asraat hain jo GBP/USD ke mustaqbil ke rukh ko asar انداز کر سکتے ہیں۔ UK aur US ke economic data, pound ki dollar ke muqable mein taqat barqarar rakhne mein bohat ahmiyat rakhte hain. Misal ke tor par, agar UK ki GDP growth, employment figures, ya inflation data kuch behtar aaye, toh yeh pound ko mazid support faraham kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar UK mein kisi economic kamzori ke asraat samne aaye, toh traders long positions rakhne mein zyada ehtiyaat kar sakte hain.

Isi tarah, US dollar ke hawale se developments bhi is pair ko asar انداز کر سکتے ہیں۔ Dollar ko interest rate ki umeedon aur global economic stability ka faida mil raha hai. Agar Federal Reserve zyada aggressive monetary tightening ka ishara de, toh dollar mazid taqat hasil kar sakta hai, jo GBP/USD ke liye upar ki taraf movement ko mushkil bana sakta hai.

Bazar ka jazba aur geopolitical factors bhi is pair ki performance ko asar انداز کر سکتے ہیں۔ Anjaani siyasi developments, khaaskar Brexit ya US-UK trade relations ke hawale se, volatility ko janam de sakti hain, jo qeemat ke amal mein tezi se tabdeelion ka sabab ban sakti hain.

GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY pair ne pichle do dinon mein jo rebound kiya tha, wo Wednesday ke Asian session ke doran nayi supply ke samnay mushkil mein aagaya aur spot prices wapis 186.00 ke qareeb agaye. Japanese yen ke aas-paas naye kharidari ke bawajood downside seemit lagta hai, kyunke UK ke consumer inflation data ka intezar hai. UK CPI ki forecast hai ke August mein 0.3% ka izafa hoga, jabke pichle mahine mein 0.2% ka kami dekhi gayi thi. Annual rate ka intezar hai ke 2.2% par barqarar rahega.
Dusri taraf, core CPI jo food, energy, alcohol, aur tobacco ko exclude karta hai, uski forecast hai ke July ke 3.3% se gir ke 3.5% par ajaayega. Agar CPI weak hota hai, tou Bank of England (BoE) ke interest rate cuts ke chances barh jayenge, jo pound ko kamzor karega. Ye bhi dekhne mein aaya hai ke UK mein wage growth slow ho rahi hai aur July mein GDP flat raha hai. Agar CPI expectations se strong hota hai, tou iska asar short-lived ho sakta hai, kyunke yen ki mazid taqat ka imkaan hai, jo Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki taraf se araha hai.

BoJ ke officials ke haal hi ke comments ke mutabiq, is saal ke end tak ek aur interest rate hike ka imkaan hai. Is wajah se, market mein central bank events ka intezar karte hue jitters hain jo yen ko support de sakte hain aur GBP/JPY par downside pressure dal sakte hain. Yeh bearish traders ke liye ek mauqa hai aur is session ke doran mazeed girawat ka imkaan hai.

Market ka focus Thursday ko Bank of England ke faislay par hai, jabke BoJ apna policy update Friday ko release karega. Yeh GBP/JPY ke agle trend ko influence karega. Is liye, behtar hoga ke 184.50 level ke neeche ek sustainable breakout ka intezar kiya jaye taake agle move ka faisla ho sake. Agar bears 185.00-185.65 ke neeche close karte hain, tou candlestick pattern reliable nahi hoga, chahe RSI aur Stochastics oversold levels ke qareeb kyun na ho. Agar price neeche girti hai tou August ke low 183.00 ka retest ho sakta hai, aur uske neeche 2022 aur 2024 lows ko milane wali support trend line par price 182.00 tak pohonch sakti hai


Click image for larger version

GBPJPY ka market 190.16 par khula. Ye na sirf is din ka daily open tha balkay is hafte ka weekly open bhi tha. Is area ke aas-paas EMA 633 H1 bhi cross hota nazar aaya. Pehle Asian session mein price ne daily open aur qareebi resistance 191.01 ke darmiyan upar neeche kiya, lekin ye area abhi tak buyers ke strong push ko rok raha tha. Ye resistance EMA 200 H1 ke qareebi area mein tha. Jab buyers ka push fail hua, tou price waapis daily open ki taraf gir gaya. Price ne daily open ke neeche jaakar EMA 633 H1 ko bhi cross kiya, lekin support area 189.30 ke qareeb pohanch kar wapis upar aagaya. Ab price phir se resistance 191.01 ko test kar raha hai. EMA 200 H1 ke aas-paas hone ke bawajood trend abhi tak clear nahi hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 neeche ki taraf stretch ho rahe hain, jo ke negative trend ka izhaar karte hain. Ye seller ka dominance pichlay Friday se shuru hua hai. Jab price rally ki koshish kar raha tha, tou ek extreme reversal nazar aaya. Price 195.94 ke high ko touch karne ke baad weak ho gaya, jo ke EMA 200 aur EMA 633 H1 ko cross karte hue neeche gir gaya. Monday ke trading session mein bhi sellers ka dominance dekhne ko mila. Ab tak ki movement ka intizaar hai kyun ke EMA 200 H1 ke aas-paas price ka maujood hona trend ko biased kar raha hai. Agar buyer bullish candle ke zariye is area ko support karte hain, tou bullish gap khulne ka imkaan hai. Friday ke weak hone ka market par bara asar tha, jab price EMA 200 daily ke upar move kar raha tha lekin resistance 196.01 ne price ko reject kar diya aur price gir kar 192.35 resistance aur EMA 200 daily se neeche chala gaya. Is wakat high aur low 195.94 aur 189.98 par bane. Halanki price abhi EMA 200 daily ke neeche hai, trend abhi tak bearish hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 daily bhi EMA 200 daily se neeche taper ho kar flat dikhai de rahe hain. Agar price Friday ke low se neeche chalta hai tou ye confirm karega ke price EMA 200 daily ke neeche hai, aur phir price 187.68 ke daily support tak gir sakta hai. Agar buyers ka push 190.18 ke upar rehne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, tou buyers EMA 200 daily aur 192.84 area ko test karenge aur mazeed bullish movement ka rasta khul sakta hai. Abhi price EMA 200 daily ko test kar raha hai aur buyers ka zyada pressure nazar aa raha hai. Dekhte hain ke kya ye buyer's efforts kaamyab hote hain, taki buy option phir se consider ki ja sake. Is ke ilawa daily stochastic bhi neeche ki taraf point kar raha hai

Analysis likhte waqt, yeh pair 183.55 ke level par stable hai. Main aksar apne reliable trading recommendations page par mid-July trading mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez

ne haal hi mein kafi utar chadhav dekha hai, jo ke aham economic events ka nateeja hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna zaroori hai

Pichlay haftay GBP/JPY market ka price bearish trend par chal raha tha, jabke monthly trend uptrend mein tha. Hafte ke aghaz mein bullish price ne phir se rise kiya aur 193.33 ke position tak pohanch gaya, aur ye trend aaj ke trading session tak jaari reh sakta hai kyunke candlestick bullish side ki taraf move kar raha hai. Abhi tak price uptrend zone mein hai aur is par koi khaas pressure nahi hai, aur yeh nayi highest zone dhoondhne ki koshish kar raha hai. Lagta hai ke hafte ke aghaz se jo upward journey chal rahi hai, wo ab tak moderate volatility ke saath hai.
Kal raat ko, Tuesday ke din, price pehle upar gaya lekin phir selling pressure mila. Aaj subah se phir se ek dafa price upar gaya hai. Is uptrend ke saath yeh Gbp/Jpy pair ke liye ek acha mauqa ho sakta hai ke market aur bhi higher run kare. Mere khayal mein, shayad candlestick abhi bhi bullish run karna chahta hai jaise ke pichlay chand hafton mein market trend mein dekha gaya hai. Aaj subah market itna active nahi hai, buyers ki koshish ke bawajood price mein koi khaas izafa nahi hua, halan ke kal raat ko bullish movement hui thi. Pichlay kuch dino ke trend ko dekhte hue lagta hai ke ab tak market ka rukh bullish side ki taraf hai. 4-hour time frame par dekha jaye toh market simple moving average zone of period 100 ko cross karte hue upward move kar raha hai. Meri prediction yeh hai ke aglay price movement mein Uptrend continue rehne ka mauqa hai, aur candlestick 194.20 area tak ja sakta hai. Abhi market relaxed lag raha hai, is liye main yeh suggest karta hoon ke thoda sabr karain aur buy position open karne ke liye us waqt ka intezaar karein jab market mein high volatility aaye.

GBP/JPY pair ne Shunichi Uchida ke kehne par 2% se zyada ka izafa kiya, jab unhone Hakodate mein local leaders ko bataya ke recent global market ki volatility aur July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne apne taqreer mein kaha: "Japan ki economy aisi nahi hai ke bank ko interest rates barhane ki zarurat ho agar yeh ek certain pace par nahi barhate. Is liye, bank financial aur capital markets unstable hone par interest rates nahi barhaye ga." Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko dusri baar interest rates barhaye aur kaha ke agar inflation aur economic growth aane wale mahino mein unki umeedon ke mutabiq hui to wo phir se barha sakte hain. Yeh efforts aur 11 July ko hui official intervention ke asraat ke saath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke badhte huye carry trade ka reversal ho gaya jo pehle yen par bohot bhari pada tha. Forex trading ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY ne July mein apne peak se trough tak 13% se zyada girawat dekhi jab yen-funded carry trade unwind hua aur market ne Bank of Japan se is saal ke baad additional rate hikes ki pricing ki. Magar, yen ki recent rise ke sath global markets mein mounting losses dekhi gayi, jahan Nikkei index ne is hafte ke Monday ko ek din mein 10% se zyada girawat dekhi. Uchida ne kaha: “Financial aur capital markets ne US dollar ki tezi se kamzori aur stock prices ka global decline dekha hai, jo US economy ke slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se hai GBP/JPY pair ke price movement ka direction ziada tar barhne ka imkaan hai. Magar, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price pehle niche correct ho kyun ke chalti hui rally kaafi impulsive hai. Kam az kam price niche correct ho ke RBS area ke qareeb aa sakta hai, jo ke 187.38 ke aas paas hai aur EMA 50 ke sath confluent hai. Agar downward correction EMA 50 ke neeche ho jata hai, toh price SMA 200 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke ek dynamic support ya phir low prices ka level 185.80 hai. Iske ilawa, jo upward rally ne 189.38 ke high prices ko touch kiya tha, usne ek minor higher high - higher low structure banaya hai. Ye isliye ke price ne structure tab break kiya jab price ne high prices 186.70 ko cross kiya aur phir 188.07 tak barhta raha. Agar hum dekhein ke price jo ke abhi niche gir raha hai, wo 183.74 ke low prices tak pohanch kar ruk gaya hai aur 183.69 ke neeche ek naya lower low nahi bana saka. Yani, yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke price ka downward correction sirf ek higher low pattern banane tak limited ho sakta hai. Yeh baat Stochastic indicator ke parameters se bhi supported hai jo overbought zone 90 - 80 ke level par cross kar chuka hai. Halankeh Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ka nazariya dikhata hai ke uptrend momentum GBP/JPY pair ki price increase rally ko support kar raha hai, magar ek downward correction phase ki zarurat hai taake agla price movement aur barh sake.

**Subah bakhair, traders!**
France aur United Kingdom ke darmiyan chal rahi fishing rights ki jang British pound par khaas tor par euro par bhoot zyada dabao daal rahi hai. Ye masla dusre aham developments ko bhi dhundhla raha hai, jin mein UK ka yeh waada shamil hai ke wo Northern Ireland Protocol ko tab tak suspend nahi karega jab tak European Union ke sath guftagu constructive rahe. In waadon ke bawajood, Bank of England se rate hike ka khauf hone ke bawajood pound ke liye bullish jazbat ab tak kam hain.

Maujooda surat-e-haal ke mad-e-nazar, yeh mumkin hai ke GBP/EUR exchange rate mid-November ka high 1.2560 test karne ki koshish kare. Neeche ki taraf, 38.8% Fibonacci extension level, jo 7 August se 15 September tak ke trend se nikaala gaya hai, wo lagbhag 1.2670 par hai aur is se mazboot support milne ki umeed hai. Agar bearish taqatain is jor ko is level se neeche le jaati hain, to ascending channel ki lower boundary jo 1.2670 ke aas-paas hai, wo agla hifazati line ban sakti hai. 36.6% Fibonacci extension level 1.2700 par bhi mazeed support faraham karta hai.**Price ab Bollinger Bands ke upper boundary ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai, jo yeh darust karta hai ke shayad yeh overbought hai.** Jab market buy orders ke accumulation zone se door ja rahi hai, to pullback hone ka imkaan barh jata hai. Potential retracement ka pehla target 1.2860 ke ilaqe mein hai, jo standard deviation ke sath milta hai. Agar price is level ko todti hai, to humein neeche ki taraf aur movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo Bollinger Bands ke lower boundary ki taraf ja sakti hai, aur yeh gehri correction ka ishaara karta hai.

**Aap ka din acha guzre!**

ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki ha

resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discov

GBP/JPY pair ne Shunichi Uchida ke kehne par 2% se zyada ka izafa kiya, jab unhone Hakodate mein local leaders ko bataya ke recent global market ki volatility aur July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne apne taqreer mein kaha: "Japan ki economy aisi nahi hai ke bank ko interest rates barhane ki zarurat ho agar yeh ek certain pace par nahi barhate. Is liye, bank financial aur capital markets unstable hone par interest rates nahi barhaye ga." Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko dusri baar interest rates barhaye aur kaha ke agar inflation aur economic growth aane wale mahino mein unki umeedon ke mutabiq hui to wo phir se barha sakte hain. Yeh efforts aur 11 July ko hui official intervention ke asraat ke saath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke badhte huye carry trade ka reversal ho gaya jo pehle yen par bohot bhari pada tha. Forex trading ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY ne July mein apne peak se trough tak 13% se zyada girawat dekhi jab yen-funded carry trade unwind hua aur market ne Bank of Japan se is saal ke baad additional rate hikes ki pricing ki. Magar, yen ki recent rise ke sath global markets mein mounting losses dekhi gayi, jahan Nikkei index ne is hafte ke Monday ko ek din mein 10% se zyada girawat dekhi. Uchida ne kaha: “Financial aur capital markets ne US dollar ki tezi se kamzori aur stock prices ka global decline dekha hai, jo US economy ke slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se hai GBP/JPY pair ke price movement ka direction ziada tar barhne ka imkaan hai. Magar, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price pehle niche correct ho kyun ke chalti hui rally kaafi impulsive hai. Kam az kam price niche correct ho ke RBS area ke qareeb aa sakta hai, jo ke 187.38 ke aas paas hai aur EMA 50 ke sath confluent hai. Agar downward correction EMA 50 ke neeche ho jata hai, toh price SMA 200 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke ek dynamic support ya phir low prices ka level 185.80 hai. Iske ilawa, jo upward rally ne 189.38 ke high prices ko touch kiya tha, usne ek minor higher high - higher low structure banaya hai. Ye isliye ke price ne structure tab break kiya jab price ne high prices 186.70 ko cross kiya aur phir 188.07 tak barhta raha. Agar hum dekhein ke price jo ke abhi niche gir raha hai, wo 183.74 ke low prices tak pohanch kar ruk gaya hai aur 183.69 ke neeche ek naya lower low nahi bana saka. Yani, yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke price ka downward correction sirf ek higher low pattern banane tak limited ho sakta hai. Yeh baat Stochastic indicator ke parameters se bhi supported hai jo overbought zone 90 - 80 ke level par cross kar chuka hai. Halankeh Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ka nazariya dikhata hai ke uptrend momentum GBP/JPY pair ki price increase rally ko support kar raha hai, magar ek downward correction phase ki zarurat hai taake agla price movement aur barh sake.

haal hi mein kafi utar chadhav dekha hai, jo ke aham economic events ka nateeja hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna zaroori hai

Analysis likhte waqt, yeh pair 183.55 ke level par stable hai. Main aksar apne reliable trading recommendations page par mid-July trading mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein ma