جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis share karoon ga. Aap meri technical analysis mein improvements

maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target

### GBP/JPY Pair Ki Price Action Ka Jaiza

GBP/JPY pair ne Jumera ko ek significant increase dekha, jab yeh 191.80s mein trading kar raha tha, jo ke ek quarter percent se zyada ka izafa hai. Yeh surge kuch ahm macroeconomic data aur events ki wajah se aaya jo dono currencies par positive asar daal rahe the. Office for National Statistics (ONS) se mila data yeh dikhata hai ke UK retail sales August mein 1.0% tak barh gayi, jo ke 0.4% ki umeed se zyada hai aur July ke 0.5% ke izafe se bhi tez hai. Yeh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke UK ke shoppers kharidari karte reh rahe hain, halanke borrowing costs unhein zyada mehsoos ho rahe hain. Is se prices par upward pressure ban sakta hai aur inflation barh sakta hai. Is wajah se Bank of England (BoE) ko shayad interest rates cut karne se roka ja sakta hai, jisse pound ko foreign capital inflows ke zariye support mil sakta hai.

Bank of England ne September ki meeting mein interest rates ko barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya, jismein vote ka nateeja aath (8) se ek (1) tha, jo sterling ko mazeed support faraham karta hai. Yeh faisla baaz doosri central banks ke rate cuts ke muqablay mein hai, jahan global inflationary pressures dheere ho rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, BoE ki policymaker Catherine Mann ke comments, jo ke lambi muddat tak restrictions ko barqarar rakhne ki baat kar rahi thi, ne sterling ki position ko mazid majboot banaya.

Dusri taraf, Japanese yen ne bhi momentum gain kiya jab inflation data yeh dikhaya ke consumer prices August mein 3.0% tak barh gayi, jo ke pehle mahine ke 2.8% se zyada hai aur yeh das mahine ka sab se uncha darja hai. Lekin, yen ko 188.00 ke key resistance level ko todne mein mushkilat ka samna karna pad raha hai, jo ab support ban chuka hai. Yeh movement 183.70 par higher highs ko confirm karta hai, jo bearish picture ko cancel kar deta hai. Halankeh price ka 193.50 ke area ke neeche hona yeh dikhata hai ke outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai.

Oscillators bhi is jazbe ko confirm karte hain, jo yeh batate hain ke bears shayad is waqt trade se nikal gaye hain. Price action ke saath, dono RSI aur MACD ne bhi higher highs banaye hain, jahan MACD breakout line ke kareeb hai, jo ke outlook mein behtri ka potential dikhata hai. Bulls ko yeh dikhana hoga ke unmein itni taqat hai ke pair ko sabhi moving averages ke upar push kar sakein, jisse yeh 197.00 ke area ki taraf barh sakta hai aur shayad aur bhi unche targets tak bhi ja sakta hai.

haftay ke akhri market mein GBP/JPY ka bullish movement ne horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ko break kar diya, jo ke ek trend reversal ka indication tha. Bullish power ne GBP/JPY pair mein bhi zyada strength dikhai, jo kay chand dino tak barh rahi thi. MA 200 ke against ek breakout moment bhi nazar aya, jo ke bullish power ki ahmiyat mein izafa ka tasdeeq kar raha tha. GBP/JPY ka movement MA 200 se kaafi upar tha, jo ke ek aur zyada ahmiyat wala bullish trend ka ishara de raha tha. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein is strength aur trend ko monitor karna dilchasp hoga. Mera andaza hai ke ye barhti hui power aur reversal moment aage chal kar ek aur ziada significant bullish movement ko janam de sakti hai. Ye bhi mumkin hai ke bullish movement ka ye significant power agle hafte ke aaghaz mein barqarar rahe. Horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ka break hona ye tasdeeq karta hai ke GBP/JPY apne bullish trend ko aur ziada significant tor pe barqarar rakhega. Is waqt tak, bullish movement resistance level ke aas paas hi hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein ye dekhna interesting hoga ke kab bullish movement horizontal line resistance level ko pori tarah break karegi. Agar aisa hota hai, to strong bullish movement ko resistance level 191.56 ke upar dekha ja sakega, jiska potential bullish target 193.30 resistance level ho sakta hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein jo cheezain madde nazar rakhni hain, wo 161.10 - 160.91 ka area hai agar strengthening jari rehti hai. Agar ye area successfully break ho jata hai, to ek rally ka imkaan hai jisme ke price 163.73 tak barh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 161.10 ka area penetrate karne mein nakam hoti hai aur EMA 200 H4 se reject hone ki tasdeeq hoti hai, to price mein kamzori ka imkaan hai jisme ke target EMA 12 H4 line tak hoga, phir EMA 36 H4 tak ja sakta hai. Iss area mein buyers momentum ka intezaar kar sakte hain ke wo wapas aaye aur phir se buy positions open karein.

**H4 Time Frame: GBP/JPY Analysis**

Is hafte GBP/JPY ka jo trend hai, wo pichle hafte ke trend se mutabiqat nahi rakh raha. Candlestick ka rukh bullish taraf hai, lekin pichle hafte mein request conditions neeche ki taraf thi. Yeh sach hai ke price 183.74 area se neeche nahi gayi. Lekin buyers ki taraf se ab bhi koshishen ho rahi hain ke wo is izafa ko jaari rakhein, halanke dealers ki taraf se kuch attempts is izafe ko dabaane ki bhi hain. Agar aap Monday se lekar Saturday raat tak price movement ko dekhein, to bullish trend ki shart price ko steadily upward taraf le ja sakti hai.

Is hafte price 191.96 position tak barh gayi hai. Daily trading 184.78 se shuru hui aur aakhir mein daily bullish candlestick ke sath close hui. Is sab ke dekhte hue, aisa lagta hai ke request buyers ke control mein hai.

Aakhri raat price 191.67 par ruk gayi kyunki weekend ke liye request band ho gayi. Meri raaye yeh hai ke agle hafte buy position lena trading ka behtareen focus hoga, kyunki GBP/JPY request par buyers ka asar ab bhi kaafi dominant hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke agle bullish trip mein candlestick 192.47 ki price range ko test karne ke liye phir se upar ja sakti hai. Pichle dino ka bullish trip agle hafte bhi jaari rehne ki achi sambhavna rakhta hai. Shayed hafte ki shuruaat par candlestick thodi correction dikha sakti hai, jo Monday se Tuesday tak ho sakta hai.

Mujhe lagta hai ke candlestick behtar bullish trend ki taraf move karegi jab hafte ka darmiyan aayega. Meri tawaqqo yeh hai ke price ab bhi upward movement ki taraf hai taake buyers ke target ki taraf barh sake. Agle hafte mujhe lagta hai ke price ke paas upar ki taraf jaane ki achi sambhavna hai aur wo 192.47 ki position ko test karna chahti hai.

Yadi yeh upward movement successful hoti hai, to buy options lene ka behtareen waqt 191.79 area hai, jahan Take Profit 192.46 aur Stop Loss 191.31 rakhna chahiye. Lekin agar price is level ko todne mein kamiyab nahi hoti, to yeh behtar hoga ke bechne ka option dekha jaye. Overall, is hafte GBP/JPY ka bullish trend ab bhi sambhavna rakhta hai.

GBP/JPY currency pair ab dobara upar jaane ka plan nahi bana raha aur yeh 186 se 183 ke figures ke darmiyan trade kar raha hai. Haal hi mein, price ne 186.78 se rebound kiya aur 183.70 ki taraf gayi, lekin ab tak chart par bearish engulfing pattern nahi dekhi gayi, jo ke ajeeb hai. Magar, price abhi bhi current levels se 183.70 par do baar wapas aa sakti hai aur double bottom banakar upar ki taraf turn le sakti hai. Is se growth 193.44 tak ja sakti hai. Agar price Ichimoku Cloud ke upar consolidate karti hai aur 189.54 ko cross karti hai, toh phir se tezi se growth shuru ho sakti hai, jo 200 figure tak le ja sakti hai. Filhal, price H4 timeframe par Ichimoku Cloud ke lower border ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, jo ke ye darshata hai ke trend H4 par downward hai. Sirf CCI indicator H4 par strong sales area se bahar nikal raha hai aur upar ki taraf mud raha hai, jo rollback ka ishara kar raha hai, lekin chart par koi rollback nahi dikh raha. Friday ko movement kaafi insignificant thi.







Agar price 183.70 ko break karti hai, toh 180-178 ke figures tak girne ka khatra hai. GBP/JPY pair asal mein Japanese yen ki tarah chal raha hai, kyunki yen bhi south ki taraf ja raha hai, isliye is pair ka bhi downward trend ahem hai. Jaise maine pehle likha, 23.6% level 186.68 se 14.6% level 184.17 tak retest hone ki sambhavna hai, aur debt DKZ 1/2 184.54-184.21 bhi dekha gaya hai. Yeh levels sirf 184.21 aur 184.17 par doges nahi liye gaye, isliye yeh aage bhi neeche ja sakte hain. Agar yeh 184.17 ke neeche consolidate karte hain, toh 183.17 tak girne ki umeed karni chahiye, aur phir shayad 181.57-180.90 ke debt DKZ tak bhi, kyunki is zone ke aas-paas 151.58 ka bhi debt level hai.

Ek alternative scenario yeh hai ke 184.17+ ke retest se rollback ho, jo DKZ 1/4 186.02-185.86 tak le ja sakta hai. Lekin yeh abhi bhi ek alternative hai; filhal ke daam se seedha girna zyada sambhav hai.

GBP/JPY Pair Ka Tajziya
GBP/JPY pair ne pichlay paanch din se musalsal positive rehna shuru kiya hai, aur Friday ko European session ke pehle hisay mein takreeban 3-week high tak chala gaya. Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke post-meeting press conference mein naram comments ne Japanese yen ke ird gird selling ka rujhan barhaya, jis se spot prices wapas 191.00 tak pohanch gaye. Ueda ne Japanese economy aur prices ke hawalay se jari uncertainty ka izhaar kiya aur kaha ke recent exchange rate ke moves ne inflation ke zyada barhne ka risk kam kar diya hai. Is ke sath hi, global financial markets mein bullish sentiment ne safe-haven yen ko mazeed kamzor kiya. Dosri taraf, pound ko Bank of England ke faislay ne support diya, jo ke Thursday ko interest rates ko barqarar rakhne aur aglay 12 maheenay mein mazeed government bond stocks ko kam karne ka faisla tha.

Technical Tajziya:

Agar technical perspective se dekha jaye, daily chart ke oscillators positive momentum gain kar rahe hain, jo mazeed upside ki possibility ko support karte hain. Lekin 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ab 200-day moving average se neeche chala gaya hai, jo ke "death cross" pattern bana raha hai aur bullish traders ko ehtiyaat karne ka mashwara de raha hai. Mazeed gains ko 50-day moving average ke qareeb mazboot resistance ka samna ho sakta hai, jo ke is waqt 191.75 area ke aas paas hai. Agla high 192.00 ka mark hai, jise cross karne ke baad GBP/JPY pair mazeed upar ja sakta hai, magar shayad 200-day moving average ke qareeb, jo ke 192.35-192.40 ke aas paas hai, ruk jaye.

Neeche ki taraf, 190.40-190.35 ka area immediate downside ko protect kar raha hai, jo ke 190.00 ke psychological level aur 189.45 ke horizontal support se pehle ka hai. Agar yeh support levels break ho jate hain, toh is haftay ka acha rally jo monthly lows ke qareeb se hui thi, khatam ho sakti hai, aur mazeed declines ka rasta khul jaye ga. Spot price tez se tez gir kar 188.00 ke round figure tak ja sakta hai aur aakhir kar 187.35 ke support area aur 187.00 ke mark tak gir sakta hai.

GBP/JPY Pair Ka Tajziya
GBP/JPY pair ne pichlay paanch din se musalsal positive rehna shuru kiya hai, aur Friday ko European session ke pehle hisay mein takreeban 3-week high tak chala gaya. Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke post-meeting press conference mein naram comments ne Japanese yen ke ird gird selling ka rujhan barhaya, jis se spot prices wapas 191.00 tak pohanch gaye. Ueda ne Japanese economy aur prices ke hawalay se jari uncertainty ka izhaar kiya aur kaha ke recent exchange rate ke moves ne inflation ke zyada barhne ka risk kam kar diya hai. Is ke sath hi, global financial markets mein bullish sentiment ne safe-haven yen ko mazeed kamzor kiya. Dosri taraf, pound ko Bank of England ke faislay ne support diya, jo ke Thursday ko interest rates ko barqarar rakhne aur aglay 12 maheenay mein mazeed government bond stocks ko kam karne ka faisla tha.

Technical Tajziya:

Agar technical perspective se dekha jaye, daily chart ke oscillators positive momentum gain kar rahe hain, jo mazeed upside ki possibility ko support karte hain. Lekin 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ab 200-day moving average se neeche chala gaya hai, jo ke "death cross" pattern bana raha hai aur bullish traders ko ehtiyaat karne ka mashwara de raha hai. Mazeed gains ko 50-day moving average ke qareeb mazboot resistance ka samna ho sakta hai, jo ke is waqt 191.75 area ke aas paas hai. Agla high 192.00 ka mark hai, jise cross karne ke baad GBP/JPY pair mazeed upar ja sakta hai, magar shayad 200-day moving average ke qareeb, jo ke 192.35-192.40 ke aas paas hai, ruk jaye.

Neeche ki taraf, 190.40-190.35 ka area immediate downside ko protect kar raha hai, jo ke 190.00 ke psychological level aur 189.45 ke horizontal support se pehle ka hai. Agar yeh support levels break ho jate hain, toh is haftay ka acha rally jo monthly lows ke qareeb se hui thi, khatam ho sakti hai, aur mazeed declines ka rasta khul jaye ga. Spot price tez se tez gir kar 188.00 ke round figure tak ja sakta hai aur aakhir kar 187.35 ke support area aur 187.00 ke mark tak gir sakta hai.

Subha Bakhair
Raat ke aaghaz mein GbpJpy market mein downward correction ka pressure dekhne ko mila. Chand hafton mein, buyers ne candlestick ko upar uthaya, jis se market bullish side ki taraf move kar saka. Magar agar ab dekha jaye, toh yeh wazeh hai ke candlestick ko mazeed upar jaane mein mushkilat ho rahi hain, aur price downward correction ki taraf ja raha hai. Mera khayal hai ke price apni uptrend journey ko jaari rakh sakta hai, kyun ke doosray buyers se support ka intezar ho raha hai.

Pichlay maheenay ke trading period mein, candlestick ka position ab tak Simple Moving Average 100 zone ke neeche tha, magar ab price kaafi upar chala gaya hai aur abhi bhi stable bullish trend mein hai. GbpJpy market ke potential ke hawalay se dekha jaye, toh lagta hai ke market abhi bhi uptrend mein hai, jaisa ke pichlay haftay dekha gaya tha. Buyers ke control mein lagta hai, jis se price mazeed upar ja sakta hai. Aaj bhi price mazeed upar jaane ka irada rakhta hai aur hum kuch zones ko plan kar sakte hain taake buy positions ko open kiya ja sake, jo ke trend movement pattern ke mutabiq buyer ke control mein lagta hai. Mera khayal hai ke price 192.83 ke zone ke qareeb ja sakta hai.

Maujooda market ke halaat ke mutabiq, meri prediction hai ke is haftay se aglay trading period tak uptrend ka imkaan hai agar buyers price ko Simple Moving Average period 100 ke upar rakhne mein kamiyab ho jate hain. Agli buy position tab li ja sakti hai jab price dobara upar jaaye aur bullish opportunity mazeed wazeh ho. Magar yeh baat yaad rahe ke bearish trend ke continuation ka bhi imkaan hai, jis se trend reversal ho sakta hai bearish side ki taraf, kyun ke price abhi tak neeche ja raha hai.

Subha Bakhair
Raat ke aaghaz mein GbpJpy market mein downward correction ka pressure dekhne ko mila. Chand hafton mein, buyers ne candlestick ko upar uthaya, jis se market bullish side ki taraf move kar saka. Magar agar ab dekha jaye, toh yeh wazeh hai ke candlestick ko mazeed upar jaane mein mushkilat ho rahi hain, aur price downward correction ki taraf ja raha hai. Mera khayal hai ke price apni uptrend journey ko jaari rakh sakta hai, kyun ke doosray buyers se support ka intezar ho raha hai.

Pichlay maheenay ke trading period mein, candlestick ka position ab tak Simple Moving Average 100 zone ke neeche tha, magar ab price kaafi upar chala gaya hai aur abhi bhi stable bullish trend mein hai. GbpJpy market ke potential ke hawalay se dekha jaye, toh lagta hai ke market abhi bhi uptrend mein hai, jaisa ke pichlay haftay dekha gaya tha. Buyers ke control mein lagta hai, jis se price mazeed upar ja sakta hai. Aaj bhi price mazeed upar jaane ka irada rakhta hai aur hum kuch zones ko plan kar sakte hain taake buy positions ko open kiya ja sake, jo ke trend movement pattern ke mutabiq buyer ke control mein lagta hai. Mera khayal hai ke price 192.83 ke zone ke qareeb ja sakta hai.

Maujooda market ke halaat ke mutabiq, meri prediction hai ke is haftay se aglay trading period tak uptrend ka imkaan hai agar buyers price ko Simple Moving Average period 100 ke upar rakhne mein kamiyab ho jate hain. Agli buy position tab li ja sakti hai jab price dobara upar jaaye aur bullish opportunity mazeed wazeh ho. Magar yeh baat yaad rahe ke bearish trend ke continuation ka bhi imkaan hai, jis se trend reversal ho sakta hai bearish side ki taraf, kyun ke price abhi tak neeche ja raha hai.

GBP/JPY Technical Forecast aur Trading Strategies

British Pound aur Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY) ka currency pair, jo "cross pair" kehlata hai kyun ke yeh US Dollar ko bypass karta hai, European trading session ke dauran aik holding pattern mein phansa hua hai. Yeh tab hai jab ke pair apne haftay ke sabse unche point ke qareeb hai. Toh is action ke peechay kya wajah hai? Aik badi wajah Japanese Yen ki kamzori hai. Yen kaafi arsay se pressure mein hai, aur uski girawat GBP/JPY ke gains ko fuel kar rahi hai. Magar sirf Yen ki kamzori ka khel nahi hai. British Pound bhi UK elections ke baad apni taqat dikha raha hai, jo currency ke overall strength ko barhawa de raha hai. Is ke ilawa, US Dollar ki mazeed kamzori bhi GBP/JPY ko support kar rahi hai.

Lekin ek challenge bhi hai. Market filhaal US employment data par nazar rakhe hue hai jo ke aaj dopahar 3:30 PM (aap ke local waqt ke mutabiq) release hoga. Yeh important economic data currency market mein khaasi halchal paida kar sakta hai. Aage dekha jaye, toh mujhe lagta hai ke GBP/JPY mein aik potential correction aa sakta hai, yani ke temporary decline jo recent rise ke baad ho sakta hai. Lekin meri asliyat mein prediction hai ke yeh uptrend jaari rahe ga. Do scenarios hain jo traders ko dekhne chahiye:

Scenario 1: Agar GBP/JPY 50-day EMA ke resistance ko break karta hai, toh naye bullish momentum ka signal mil sakta hai.
Scenario 2: Agar yeh 200-day EMA ke neeche jaata hai, toh yeh aik trend reversal ka ishara ho sakta hai.

Technically, Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator abhi bhi bullish zone mein hai, aur 200-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai. Lekin pair 16 saal ke high 208.11 se retreat kar chuka hai, jahan 50-day EMA ke qareeb resistance face ho raha hai. Aik clear break is level ke upar bullish momentum ko naye roop mein le aayega, jab ke 200-day EMA ke neeche sustain rehna trend reversal ka signal de sakta hai.

Is haftay ke dauran, traders dono central banks ke policy decisions ko ghaur se dekhein ge, aur mustaqbil mein monetary policies ke bare mein koi bhi hints par nazar rakhein ge. Interest rate ka farq, inflation ka rujhan, aur BoJ intervention ka imkaan, sab mil kar GBP/JPY ki direction ka tayyun karenge.

GBP/JPY Technical Forecast aur Trading Strategies
British Pound aur Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY) ka currency pair, jo "cross pair" kehlata hai kyun ke yeh US Dollar ko bypass karta hai, European trading session ke dauran aik holding pattern mein phansa hua hai. Yeh tab hai jab ke pair apne haftay ke sabse unche point ke qareeb hai. Toh is action ke peechay kya wajah hai? Aik badi wajah Japanese Yen ki kamzori hai. Yen kaafi arsay se pressure mein hai, aur uski girawat GBP/JPY ke gains ko fuel kar rahi hai. Magar sirf Yen ki kamzori ka khel nahi hai. British Pound bhi UK elections ke baad apni taqat dikha raha hai, jo currency ke overall strength ko barhawa de raha hai. Is ke ilawa, US Dollar ki mazeed kamzori bhi GBP/JPY ko support kar rahi hai.

Lekin ek challenge bhi hai. Market filhaal US employment data par nazar rakhe hue hai jo ke aaj dopahar 3:30 PM (aap ke local waqt ke mutabiq) release hoga. Yeh important economic data currency market mein khaasi halchal paida kar sakta hai. Aage dekha jaye, toh mujhe lagta hai ke GBP/JPY mein aik potential correction aa sakta hai, yani ke temporary decline jo recent rise ke baad ho sakta hai. Lekin meri asliyat mein prediction hai ke yeh uptrend jaari rahe ga. Do scenarios hain jo traders ko dekhne chahiye:

Scenario 1: Agar GBP/JPY 50-day EMA ke resistance ko break karta hai, toh naye bullish momentum ka signal mil sakta hai.
Scenario 2: Agar yeh 200-day EMA ke neeche jaata hai, toh yeh aik trend reversal ka ishara ho sakta hai.

Technically, Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator abhi bhi bullish zone mein hai, aur 200-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai. Lekin pair 16 saal ke high 208.11 se retreat kar chuka hai, jahan 50-day EMA ke qareeb resistance face ho raha hai. Aik clear break is level ke upar bullish momentum ko naye roop mein le aayega, jab ke 200-day EMA ke neeche sustain rehna trend reversal ka signal de sakta hai.

Is haftay ke dauran, traders dono central banks ke policy decisions ko ghaur se dekhein ge, aur mustaqbil mein monetary policies ke bare mein koi bhi hints par nazar rakhein ge. Interest rate ka farq, inflation ka rujhan, aur BoJ intervention ka imkaan, sab mil kar GBP/JPY ki direction ka tayyun karenge.

GBP/JPY pair mein Jumay ke roz kaafi bara izafa dekhne ko mila, jahan yeh 191.80s ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo aik quarter percentage point se zyada ka surge tha. Yeh izafa kuch aham macroeconomic data aur events ke nateeja mein aaya jo dono currencies par musbat asar dal rahe thay. UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ke mutabiq, August mein UK retail sales 1.0% barh gayi, jo umeed se zyada thi (0.4%) aur July ke 0.5% ke izafay se bhi zyada thi. Is ka matlab hai ke UK ke shoppers ab bhi ziada kharcha kar rahe hain bawajood is ke ke borrowing costs ziada hain, jo ke prices par upward pressure dal sakta hai aur inflation ko barha sakta hai. Yeh surat-e-haal Bank of England (BoE) ko interest rates cut karne se rokk sakti hai, aur usay 5.0% ke high rate ko barqarar rakhna parega taake foreign capital inflows ke zariye pound ko support mil sake.
Bank of England ka apni September meeting mein interest rates ko hold par rakhne ka faisla (8-to-1 vote ke sath) sterling ko mazeed support de raha hai. Yeh faisla baqi central banks ke rate cuts ke baraks tha, jo ke global inflationary pressures ke kam honay par adopt kiye gaye hain. Iske ilawa, BoE ke policymaker Catherine Mann ke comments jo ke zyadatar restrictions ko baray arsay tak barqarar rakhne ke haq mein thay, ne sterling ki position ko mazid mazbooti di.

Doosri taraf, Japanese yen ko inflation data ke nateeja mein kuch momentum mila, jahan consumer prices August mein 3.0% barh gaye, jo pechlay maheenay ke 2.8% se zyada tha aur das maheenay ka high tha. Magar yen 188.00 ke aham resistance ko break karne mein nakam raha (jo ab support mein tabdeel ho gaya hai). Is move ne 183.70 par higher highs ko confirm kar diya, aur bearish picture ko cancel kar diya. Magar, 193.50 ke aham area ke neeche price position ke bawajood outlook ab bhi uncertain hai. Oscillators bhi is hisaarat ko confirm karte hain ke bears abhi ke liye khamosh hain. Price action ki tarah, RSI aur MACD dono higher highs bana chuke hain, aur MACD breakout line ke qareeb hai, jo outlook mein potential improvement ka ishara hai. Bulls ko yeh sabit karna hoga ke woh kafi taqatwar hain taake pair ko sab moving averages ke upar push kar sakein, jisse yeh 197.00 ke area aur mazeed unche targets ki taraf ja sakta hai.

GBP/JPY pair mein Jumay ke roz kaafi bara izafa dekhne ko mila, jahan yeh 191.80s ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo aik quarter percentage point se zyada ka surge tha. Yeh izafa kuch aham macroeconomic data aur events ke nateeja mein aaya jo dono currencies par musbat asar dal rahe thay. UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ke mutabiq, August mein UK retail sales 1.0% barh gayi, jo umeed se zyada thi (0.4%) aur July ke 0.5% ke izafay se bhi zyada thi. Is ka matlab hai ke UK ke shoppers ab bhi ziada kharcha kar rahe hain bawajood is ke ke borrowing costs ziada hain, jo ke prices par upward pressure dal sakta hai aur inflation ko barha sakta hai. Yeh surat-e-haal Bank of England (BoE) ko interest rates cut karne se rokk sakti hai, aur usay 5.0% ke high rate ko barqarar rakhna parega taake foreign capital inflows ke zariye pound ko support mil sake.
Bank of England ka apni September meeting mein interest rates ko hold par rakhne ka faisla (8-to-1 vote ke sath) sterling ko mazeed support de raha hai. Yeh faisla baqi central banks ke rate cuts ke baraks tha, jo ke global inflationary pressures ke kam honay par adopt kiye gaye hain. Iske ilawa, BoE ke policymaker Catherine Mann ke comments jo ke zyadatar restrictions ko baray arsay tak barqarar rakhne ke haq mein thay, ne sterling ki position ko mazid mazbooti di.

Doosri taraf, Japanese yen ko inflation data ke nateeja mein kuch momentum mila, jahan consumer prices August mein 3.0% barh gaye, jo pechlay maheenay ke 2.8% se zyada tha aur das maheenay ka high tha. Magar yen 188.00 ke aham resistance ko break karne mein nakam raha (jo ab support mein tabdeel ho gaya hai). Is move ne 183.70 par higher highs ko confirm kar diya, aur bearish picture ko cancel kar diya. Magar, 193.50 ke aham area ke neeche price position ke bawajood outlook ab bhi uncertain hai. Oscillators bhi is hisaarat ko confirm karte hain ke bears abhi ke liye khamosh hain. Price action ki tarah, RSI aur MACD dono higher highs bana chuke hain, aur MACD breakout line ke qareeb hai, jo outlook mein potential improvement ka ishara hai. Bulls ko yeh sabit karna hoga ke woh kafi taqatwar hain taake pair ko sab moving averages ke upar push kar sakein, jisse yeh 197.00 ke area aur mazeed unche targets ki taraf ja sakta hai.

pair ne pichle do dinon mein jo rebound kiya tha, wo Wednesday ke Asian session ke doran nayi supply ke samnay mushkil mein aagaya aur spot prices wapis 186.00 ke qareeb agaye. Japanese yen ke aas-paas naye kharidari ke bawajood downside seemit lagta hai, kyunke UK ke consumer inflation data ka intezar hai. UK CPI ki forecast hai ke August mein 0.3% ka izafa hoga, jabke pichle mahine mein 0.2% ka kami dekhi gayi thi. Annual rate ka intezar hai ke 2.2% par barqarar rahega. Dusri taraf, core CPI jo food, energy, alcohol, aur tobacco ko exclude karta hai, uski forecast hai ke July ke 3.3% se gir ke 3.5% par ajaayega. Agar CPI weak hota hai, tou Bank of England (BoE) ke interest rate cuts ke chances barh jayenge, jo pound ko kamzor karega. Ye bhi dekhne mein aaya hai ke UK mein wage growth slow ho rahi hai aur July mein GDP flat raha hai. Agar CPI expectations se strong hota hai, tou iska asar short-lived ho sakta hai, kyunke yen ki mazid taqat ka imkaan hai, jo Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki taraf se araha hai.

BoJ ke officials ke haal hi ke comments ke mutabiq, is saal ke end tak ek aur interest rate hike ka imkaan hai. Is wajah se, market mein central bank events ka intezar karte hue jitters hain jo yen ko support de sakte hain aur GBP/JPY par downside pressure dal sakte hain. Yeh bearish traders ke liye ek mauqa hai aur is session ke doran mazeed girawat ka imkaan hai.

Market ka focus Thursday ko Bank of England ke faislay par hai, jabke BoJ apna policy update Friday ko release karega. Yeh GBP/JPY ke agle trend ko influence karega. Is liye, behtar hoga ke 184.50 level ke neeche ek sustainable breakout ka intezar kiya jaye taake agle move ka faisla ho sake. Agar bears 185.00-185.65 ke neeche close karte hain, tou candlestick pattern reliable nahi hoga, chahe RSI aur Stochastics oversold levels ke qareeb kyun na ho. Agar price neeche girti hai tou August ke low 183.00 ka retest ho sakta hai, aur uske neeche 2022 aur 2024 lows ko milane wali support trend line par price 182.00 tak pohonch sakti ha