جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

GBP/JPY Ki Brief Analysis
GBP/JPY ek mashhoor currency pair hai jo British Pound aur Japanese Yen ko represent karta hai. Is pair mein trading karne walay traders ko do mulkon ke macroeconomic factors ka khayal rakhna parta hai. British economy, jo Eurozone se alag hai, aur Japan ki economy, jo ek Asian powerhouse hai, dono ka asar is pair ki movement par hota hai.

Is pair ki volatility kaafi zyada hoti hai, jiska matlab hai ke is mein short-term trading opportunities kaafi hoti hain. Yen ko ek safe-haven currency ke tor par dekha jata hai, matlab ke jab duniya bhar mein financial uncertainty hoti hai, to investors apne paisay Yen mein shift karte hain, jis se GBP/JPY ki value gir sakti hai. On the other hand, jab British economy strong hoti hai, aur interest rates barhte hain, to GBP ki demand barh jati hai, aur GBP/JPY pair mein bullish trend dekha jata hai.

Agar hum recent market conditions ka tajziya karen to, British economy ko inflationary pressures aur interest rate hikes ka samna hai. BoE (Bank of England) apne interest rates barha raha hai, jo British Pound ko support deta hai. Japan mein, BoJ (Bank of Japan) low interest rate policy follow kar raha hai, jo Yen ko relatively weak rakhta hai.

Technical analysis ki baat ki jaye, to GBP/JPY key support aur resistance levels pe trade karta hai. Agar support level toot jaye, to is pair mein downside ka imkaan hota hai, lekin agar resistance level break ho jaye, to is pair mein bullish momentum dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Is pair ko trade karte waqt, traders ko geopolitical factors, economic data releases, aur central bank policies ka khayal rakhna chahiye. Khas tor par, UK aur Japan ke inflation data, GDP growth rates, aur interest rate decisions ka direct asar GBP/JPY ki price action par hota hai.

Is liye, GBP/JPY ek ideal pair hai un traders ke liye jo volatility aur fast-moving markets ko pasand karte hain, magar proper risk management zaroori hai kyunki high volatility ke sath high risk bhi hota hai.

Main aksar apne reliable trading recommendations page par mid-July trading mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis share karoon ga. Aap meri technical analysis mein improvements karne ke liye bilkul free hain. Main aap se is par discuss karne mein khushi mehsoos karoon ga. Apna support dikhane ke liye, "like" button par click karein

GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY pair ne pichle do dinon mein jo rebound kiya tha, wo Wednesday ke Asian session ke doran nayi supply ke samnay mushkil mein aagaya aur spot prices wapis 186.00 ke qareeb agaye. Japanese yen ke aas-paas naye kharidari ke bawajood downside seemit lagta hai, kyunke UK ke consumer inflation data ka intezar hai. UK CPI ki forecast hai ke August mein 0.3% ka izafa hoga, jabke pichle mahine mein 0.2% ka kami dekhi gayi thi. Annual rate ka intezar hai ke 2.2% par barqarar rahega.
Dusri taraf, core CPI jo food, energy, alcohol, aur tobacco ko exclude karta hai, uski forecast hai ke July ke 3.3% se gir ke 3.5% par ajaayega. Agar CPI weak hota hai, tou Bank of England (BoE) ke interest rate cuts ke chances barh jayenge, jo pound ko kamzor karega. Ye bhi dekhne mein aaya hai ke UK mein wage growth slow ho rahi hai aur July mein GDP flat raha hai. Agar CPI expectations se strong hota hai, tou iska asar short-lived ho sakta hai, kyunke yen ki mazid taqat ka imkaan hai, jo Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki taraf se araha hai.

BoJ ke officials ke haal hi ke comments ke mutabiq, is saal ke end tak ek aur interest rate hike ka imkaan hai. Is wajah se, market mein central bank events ka intezar karte hue jitters hain jo yen ko support de sakte hain aur GBP/JPY par downside pressure dal sakte hain. Yeh bearish traders ke liye ek mauqa hai aur is session ke doran mazeed girawat ka imkaan hai.

Market ka focus Thursday ko Bank of England ke faislay par hai, jabke BoJ apna policy update Friday ko release karega. Yeh GBP/JPY ke agle trend ko influence karega. Is liye, behtar hoga ke 184.50 level ke neeche ek sustainable breakout ka intezar kiya jaye taake agle move ka faisla ho sake. Agar bears 185.00-185.65 ke neeche close karte hain, tou candlestick pattern reliable nahi hoga, chahe RSI aur Stochastics oversold levels ke qareeb kyun na ho. Agar price neeche girti hai tou August ke low 183.00 ka retest ho sakta hai, aur uske neeche 2022 aur 2024 lows ko milane wali support trend line par price 182.00 tak pohonch sakti hai.

GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY Market Analysis
1. Overview aur Market Sentiment:

GBP/JPY ka pair recent sessions mein kaafi volatile raha hai, jo ke market ke mixed sentiment ko dikhata hai. UK ki economic instability, inflation pressures, aur Bank of England (BoE) ki hawkish policies Pound Sterling (GBP) ko affect kar rahe hain. Dusri taraf, Japanese Yen (JPY) ko Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki ultra-loose monetary policy aur global risk sentiment se impact mil raha hai. Overall, yeh pair risk-on aur risk-off sentiment ke darmiyan trade karta hai, jisme GBP ki strength JPY ke against zyada nazar aati hai.

2. Technical Indicators ka Analysis:

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, GBP/JPY ne recent uptrend dikhaya hai, lekin abhi price action thoda consolidate kar raha hai. Moving averages, specially 50-day aur 200-day, bullish trend ko support karte hain. RSI (Relative Strength Index) bhi near 60 hai, jo upward momentum ko indicate karta hai, magar overbought zone se door hai. Bollinger bands bhi expanded hain, jo volatility ki waja se price swings ko suggest karte hain.

3. Key Support aur Resistance Levels:

GBP/JPY ka pehla major support level 181.50 par hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to agla support 180.00 par ho sakta hai. Resistance levels mein, pehla major resistance 184.00 par hai. Agar bullish momentum barh jata hai, to 185.50 ek strong resistance zone ban sakta hai. Short-term mein, price inhi levels ke beech move karegi jab tak koi major breakout nahi hota.

4. Fundamental Factors:

Fundamental factors mein UK ki inflation aur Bank of England ki interest rate policies bohot important hain, jo GBP ki movement ko drive karte hain. Dusri taraf, Japan ki economy abhi bhi deflation aur low growth se guzra rahi hai, jisse BoJ ki ultra-loose monetary policy chal rahi hai. Global risk sentiment bhi important role play karta hai; jab market mein risk-off environment hota hai, to JPY ko safe-haven demand milti hai. Lekin jab risk-on sentiment strong hota hai, to GBP ki strength JPY ko overpower kar deti hai.

5. Future Outlook:

Agle kuch dino mein GBP/JPY ka trend UK aur Japan ki economic policies aur global risk sentiment par depend karega. Agar UK ki economic data positive hoti hai aur Bank of England apni hawkish stance continue rakhta hai, to GBP/JPY ka pair further upside dekh sakta hai. Lekin, agar global markets mein uncertainty barhti hai, to JPY ko safe-haven demand se support milega, jo pair ko downside pressure dega. Traders ko short-term volatility ke liye ready rehna chahiye aur economic indicators aur central bank announcements par focus rakhna chahiye.

Main aksar apne reliable trading recommendations page par mid-July trading mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta

resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis share karoon ga. Aap meri technical analysis mein improvements karne ke liye bilkul

maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target

dikhata hai. UK ki economic instability, inflation pressures, aur Bank of England (BoE) ki hawkish policies Pound Sterling (GBP) ko affect kar rahe hain. Dusri taraf, Japanese Yen (JPY) ko Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki ultra-loose monetary policy aur global risk sentiment se impact mil raha hai. Overall, yeh pair risk-on aur risk-off sentiment ke darmiyan trade karta hai, jisme GBP ki strength JPY ke against zyada nazar aati hai.
2. Technical Indicators ka Analysis:

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, GBP/JPY ne recent uptrend dikhaya hai, lekin abhi price action thoda consolidate kar raha hai. Moving averages, specially 50-day aur 200-day, bullish trend ko support karte hain. RSI (Relative Strength Index) bhi near 60 hai, jo upward momentum ko indicate karta hai, magar overbought zone se door hai. Bollinger bands bhi expanded hain, jo volatility ki waja se price swings ko suggest karte hain.

3. Key Support aur Resistance Levels:

GBP/JPY ka pehla major support level 181.50 par hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to agla support 180.00 par ho sakta hai. Resistance levels mein, pehla major resistance 184.00 par hai. Agar bullish momentum barh jata hai, to 185.50 ek strong resistance zone ban sakta hai. Short-term mein, price inhi levels ke beech move karegi jab tak koi major breakout nahi hota.

4. Fundamental Factors:

Fundamental factors mein UK ki inflation aur Bank of England ki interest rate policies bohot important hain, jo GBP ki movement ko drive karte hain. Dusri taraf, Japan ki economy abhi bhi deflation aur low growth se guzra rahi hai, jisse BoJ ki ultra-loose monetary policy chal rahi hai. Global risk sentiment bhi important role play karta hai; jab market mein risk-off environment hota hai, to JPY ko safe-haven demand milti hai. Lekin jab risk-on sentiment strong hota hai, to GBP ki strength JPY ko overpower kar deti hai.

5. Future Outlook:

Agle kuch dino mein GBP/JPY ka trend UK aur Japan ki economic policies aur global risk sentiment par depend karega. Agar UK ki economic data positive hoti hai aur Bank of England apni hawkish stance continue rakhta hai, to GBP/JPY ka pair further upside dekh sakta hai. Lekin, agar global markets mein uncertainty barhti hai, to JPY ko safe-haven demand se support milega, jo pair ko downside pressure dega. Traders ko short

resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis share karoon ga. Aap meri technical analysis mein improvements karne ke liye bilkul

JPY pair ki narrowing price movement ne aakhir kar ek bearish triangle pattern bana liya hai aur trend ka rukh bhi bearish ho gaya hai. EMA 50 aur SMA 200 ke darmiyan kai crosses hue, lekin death crossing signal successfully zahir hua. Is tarah, price movement ke neechay ki taraf rally ko jaari rakhne ke imkanaat hain taake support ko test kar sake ya ek lower low pattern bana sake. Is dauran, 161.45 ke qareeb ek SBR area hai jo ke mumkin hai ke test kiya jaye agar price mein upar ki taraf correction hoti hai. Low price 160.37 main target hoga lower low - lower high price pattern ki structure ko qaim rakhne ke liye. Agar aap Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke momentum ko dekhein, to yeh abhi bhi consistent hai downtrend mein. Saucer signal aane ka imkaan hai agar agli histogram red ho. Lekin, Stochastic indicator parameters abhi bhi upar ki taraf price correction ko support karte nazar aate hain kyunke woh level 20 - 10 mein oversold zone mein dakhil hone ke baad cross kar gaye hain aur level 50 ki taraf ja rahe hain. Lekin jab parameters level 50 ko paar karne mein nakam hotay hain jo overbought zone level 90 - 80 ki taraf ja raha hota hai, iska matlab yeh hai ke downward rally low price 160.37 ya support 160.61 ko test karegi. Bearish trend direction conditions aur death cross signals jo ke abhi bhi taze hain, trading options mein focus SELL moment ka intezar karne par hona chahiye. SBR area 161.45 ya shayad EMA 50 ke aas paas entry point ke tor par istamal kiya ja sakta hai. Taqreeb us waqt confirm hogi jab Stochastic indicator parameters level 50 par cross karein ya overbought zone level 90 - 80 mein dakhil hone ke baad. AO indicator histogram kam az kam downtrend momentum ke darmiyan saucer signal paida karne ke qabil ho. Take profit ke liye target placement low price 160.37 hai aur stop loss SMA 200 ke upar 15 - 25 pips ki doori par hota hai jo dynamic resistance ke tor par kaam karega. Hourly chart par linear regression channel ka rukh M15 ki tarah hi hai, jo ke bullish interest ko barhata hai. Dono channels ki readings ke mutabiq, priority purchases ke liye hai. Sales ke liye conditions abhi tak nahi banti. Iske

wali US employment data par focus kiye hue hai, jo ke 3:30 PM (aap ke maqami waqt ke mutabiq) release hoga. Ye ahem economic data point currency market mein kafi hilchal paida kar sakta hai. Agay dekha jaye toh main anticipate kar raha hoon ke GBP/JPY mein aik potential correction aa sakta hai, jo ke iska haali uroo'j ke baad aik temporary decline ho sakta hai. Magar, meri ahem prediction yeh hai ke mojooda uptrend jaari rahega yahan do possible scenarios hain jo madde nazar rakhein: GBP/JPY ka price movement jo is waqt EMA 50 ke qareeb consolidate kar raha hai, zyadah tar 199.01 ke resistance ya 199.00 ke level ke qareeb hai Is se ye kafi bara imkaan hai ke price resistance ko test karey, jisse upward correction SMA 200 tak pohoch sakti hai. Magar, ye bhi mumkin hai ke price girti rahe aur 195.96 ke support ya 196.00 ke level ko test kare jab ke EMA 50 ke neeche ho. Agar hum trend ke rukh par nazar dalain jo abhi bhi bearish condition mein hai, toh price movement ka rujhan neeche jane ka zyada hai, upar jane ke muqable mein. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ki nazar se dekha jaye toh kuch itminan nahi lagta. Kyun ke histogram baar baar uptrend aur downtrend ka momentum relatively chhote waqt mein dikhata hai. Agar yeh bearish trend ke rukh ke sath adjust karey, toh histogram consistent tor par level 0 ya negative area ke neeche reh sakta hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jo level 50 ke qareeb cross kar rahe hain kyun ke oversold zone (level 20-10) tak nahi pohoch sake, upward correction ko support karte nazar aa rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, mojooda parameters abhi tak overbought zone (level 90-80) mein nahi aaye hain, iska matlab hai ke price ke mazeed barhne ki gunjaish hai saturation point par pohochne se pehle

data ke hawalay se, market ka 50-basis-point cut ke mumkin honay ka yaqeen kam ho gaya hai. Pehli dafa is ka zikar August ke aghaz mein kiya gaya jab unemployment aur labor market reports umeed se kamzor aayi thi. Magar ab tak expectations stable ho gayi hain, aur 50-point cut ka sirf 30% chance hai. Lekin market pehle hi is move ko price kar chuka tha, is liye ab sirf ek corrective wave set ki zarurat hai, balkay expectations ka phir se jaiza lena bhi zaroori hai. Koi bhi news ab is pair ko hamesha ke liye upar nahi push kar sakti. Ab ek five-wave structure tayar ho gaya hai, is liye main corrective wave set ki tawaqo karta hoon, jismein specific targets hain.
Pound/yen pair ke baraay paimanay par uptrend jaari hai. 5 August se corrective decline ke baad, lower boundary se ek upward wave develop ho rahi hai jo ke reversal potential ke sath hai. Is wave ka middle section (B) mukammal honay ke qareeb hai. Chart par abhi tak koi clear reversal signal nazar nahi aaya.

Aisa lagta hai ke markets Federal Reserve ki monetary easing ko 2024 mein zyada overestimate kar rahe hain, jisme 112bps tak borrowing costs kam karne ka demand hai. Ideal taur par, agar is saal 75bps ka cut hota hai, toh US dollar dobara qabil-e-ahmiyat ho jayega jaise pehle quarter mein hua tha. Iske baraks, Bank of England ke policy easing ka raasta bohot slow lagta hai. Is saal 40bps ka cut? Sirf ek dafa 25bps ka step, woh bhi kuch chance ke sath doosri dafa? Yeh bohot kam nahi hai ek aise mulk ke liye jahan inflation pehle hi 2% target par aa chuki hai?

Weekly Forecast:

Hafta ke aghaz mein, sideways movement support zone ke qareeb jaari rehne ki umeed hai. Weekend ke qareeb, volatility mein izafa ho sakta hai, aur direction mein tabdeeli ka imkaan hai. Lower boundary of support ka ek chhota breakout bhi mumkin hai. Reversal ka waqt aham economic data ki release ke sath mutabiqat rakhta hai.

Potential Reversal Zones:
Resistance: 191.50/192.00
Support: 186.40/185.90

Recommendations:
Selling: High-risk hai aur mumkin hai ke yeh profitable na ho.
Buying: Reversal signals ke baad, calculated support zone ke qareeb buy karna achi strategy

Trading journal, Sunday, September 22, 2024
GBP/JPY

Assalamu'alaikum...
Subah bakhair, sab Indonesian traders kaise hain? Umeed hai ke aap is weekend chhutti ke doran achi sehat mein hain aur aapko mazeed sehat aur achi mouqay milain ke hum sab milkar is analysis par baat kar sakein. Lagta nahi ke phir se weekend chhutti aagai hai. Main aane wale hafte ke liye market ke price movements ke potential ka ek analysis share karna chahta hoon.

**H4 time frame**

Is haftay GBP/JPY ka market trend pichle haftay ke trend se mutabiqat nahi rakhta, kyun ke kal ke candlestick ka rukh aur manzil bullish side ki taraf move kar rahe hain. Yeh sach hai ke pichle haftay market condition ne downtrend ki taraf move kiya tha, lekin price ne 183.74 area se neeche nahi gira. Agar hum Monday se Saturday raat tak ke price ka safar dekhein, to buyers ka kaafi koshish thi ke price mein izafa karte rahein, chahe sellers ke kuch attempts usay rokne ke liye hue hon. Bullish trend condition ne market mein price ko Uptrend side ki taraf barhaya hai.

Is hafte ka price 191.96 position tak pohanch gaya hai. Weekly trading 184.78 position se start hui thi aur aakhir mein ek weekly bullish candlestick ke sath close hui. Upar diye gaye halat ke mutabiq, market buyers ke control mein chal raha hai.

Kal raat ko price 191.67 par ruk gaya, kyun ke weekend par market band ho gaya. Mere khayal mein agle hafte ke liye Buy position ko choose karna trading ka focus hona chahiye, kyun ke GBP/JPY market mein buyers ka asar abhi tak kaafi dominant hai. Aglay hafte ka bullish journey ka agla target shayad 192.47 ka price range ho. Pichle kuch dinon ka bullish journey agle hafte bhi continue hone ka achi possibility rakhta hai.

Shayad haftay ke aghaz mein market situation indicate kare ke candlestick Monday se Tuesday tak down correction ki taraf jaye, lekin haftay ke darmiyan tak ye bullish trend side ki taraf move karne ka imkaan hai. Mere khayal mein agle hafte ka safar bullish trend ko continue karega, aur price buyers ke target ki taraf barh sakta hai. Agar yeh koshish kamyaab hoti hai, to GBP/JPY pair ke liye aglay bullish target tak pohanchne ka chance hai, lekin agar fail hota hai, to price bearish side ki taraf girega aur candlestick shayad higher position ko test karne ki koshish kare.

**GBP/JPY ka Tajziya**

Jumay ke din, GBP/JPY pair mein ek significant izafa dekhne ko mila jo ke ek quarter percentage se zyada tha, aur pair 191.80 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Yeh izafa un macroeconomic data aur events ki wajah se hua jo dono currencies ko positively asar andaz karte hain. Office for National Statistics (ONS) ka data yeh dikhata hai ke UK ki retail sales August mein 1.0% barh gayi, jo umeed se zyada thi (0.4%) aur July ke 0.5% se tez thi. Is ka matlab hai ke UK ke shoppers ab bhi kharch kar rahe hain, bhale hi borrowing costs zyada ho gayi hain, jo ke prices par upward pressure daal sakti hain aur inflation barhane ka sabab ban sakta hai. Is wajah se Bank of England (BoE) ke liye rate cut karna mushkil ho sakta hai, aur wo apna 5.0% ka high rate barqarar rakhne par majboor ho sakta hai, jo pound ko support de sakta hai foreign capital inflows ke zariye.

BoE ke September meeting mein interest rates ko barqarar rakhne ka faisla, jisme 8-1 vote diya gaya, ne sterling ko mazeed support diya. Yeh faisla un central banks ke rate cuts ke baraks tha jo global inflationary pressures ke kam hone par cut kar rahe hain. Catherine Mann, BoE policymaker ke comments, jo yeh advocate kar rahi thi ke mazid waqt tak restrictions ko barqarar rakha jaye, ne bhi sterling ki position ko mazid mazboot kiya.

Doosri taraf, Japanese yen ko inflation data se kuch momentum mila jab August mein consumer prices 3.0% barh gayi, jo ke pehle maheenay ki 2.8% se zyada thi aur yeh das maheenay ka high tha. Magar, yen ko 188.00 ke key resistance ko tor kar agay barhne mein mushkilat hui (ab yeh level support ban gaya hai). Is move ne 183.70 par higher highs ko confirm kiya aur bearish scenario ko cancel kar diya. Halanki, price ki 193.50 ke neeche position ye signal deti hai ke outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai.

Oscillators bhi is uncertainty ko confirm karte hain, jisme yeh lagta hai ke bears ne abhi temporarily position chhod di hai. Price action ke mutabiq, RSI aur MACD dono ne higher highs banaye hain, aur MACD breakout line ke qareeb hai, jo outlook mein improvement ka ishara de raha hai. Bulls ko yeh sabit karna hoga ke unke paas itni strength hai ke wo pair ko initially drawn moving averages ke upar le jaa sakein, jo ke price ko 197.00 area aur mazeed higher targets ki taraf le jaa sakta hai.

Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis share karoon ga. Aap meri technical analysis mein improvements karne ke liye bilkul free hain. Main aap se is par discuss karne mein khushi mehsoos karoon