جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

GBP/JPY Forum Analysis, Forecast

EURJPY ke narrow price movement ne aakhir mein ek bearish triangle pattern bana diya aur trend ka direction bhi bearish ho gaya. EMA 50 aur SMA 200 ke beech kai crossings ke bawajood, death cross signal clear nazar aaya. Is wajah se, price movement neeche ki taraf rally continue karne ka imkaan hai taake support ko test kiya ja sake ya phir ek lower low pattern ban sake. Is waqt, 161.45 ke aas-paas ek SBR area hai jo price ke upar correction hone par test ho sakta hai. Low prices 160.37 main target honge taake lower low - lower high price pattern banaya ja sake.

Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke momentum ko dekhein to ye abhi bhi downtrend mein hai. Agar agla histogram red hota hai to ek saucer signal ban sakta hai. Lekin Stochastic indicator parameters abhi bhi upar ki taraf price correction ko support kar rahe hain kyunki ye oversold zone 20 - 10 ke baad cross kar chuke hain aur 50 ki taraf ja rahe hain. Agar parameters level 50 ko cross nahi kar pate aur overbought zone 90 - 80 ki taraf badhte hain, to iska matlab hai ke downward rally low prices 160.37 ya support 160.61 ko test karegi.




Setup Entry Position:

Bearish trend direction aur fresh death cross signals ke sath trading options ke liye SELL moment ka intezaar karna chahiye. 161.45 ke SBR area ya EMA 50 ke aas-paas entry point ke tor par use kiya ja sakta hai. Confirmation tab milegi jab Stochastic indicator parameters level 50 ko cross karenge ya overbought zone 90 - 80 mein enter karenge. AO indicator histogram ko downtrend momentum ke beech ek saucer signal generate karna chahiye. Take profit ke liye target low prices 160.37 hoga aur stop loss SMA 200 ke upar 15 - 25 pips ke faasle par dynamic resistance le sakte hain.

GBP/JPY Market Dynamics ka Jaiza

Risk-sensitive currencies jaise ke British Pound (GBP) ko Middle East ke badhti hui geopolitical tensions ki wajah se upar ki movement mein rukawat ka samna ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, safe-haven flows Japanese Yen (JPY) ko support kar rahe hain, jo GBP/JPY cross currency pair ke upside potential ko limit kar rahe hain.

Haal ka Geopolitical Waziyat

Israeli forces ne southern Gaza ke Khan Younis area mein apni operations jaari rakhi hui hain. CBC News ke mutabiq, Palestinian medics ne report kiya ke Israeli military strikes ke natijay mein kam az kam 18 log Khan Younis mein jaan se haath dho baithe.

Aane Wali Bank of Japan Meeting

Japan ka parliament 23 August ko ek khaas session ke liye mulakaat karega jisme Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke recent interest rate hike decision par behas ki jayegi. Ye session lower house financial affairs committee ke zariye organize ki gayi hai, aur BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ko dawat di gayi hai, jese ke Reuters ne hukoomati zaraye ka hawala diya.

GBP/JPY Market Analysis

Haal ka Trading Status

Tuesday ko GBP/JPY pair European trading session ke dauran 189.20 ke aas-paas hover kar raha tha. Is positive position ke bawajood, 4-hour chart pe negativity ke asaar nazar aa rahe hain, jese ke bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator se pata chalta hai. Pehli upside barrier 189.50 par hai, jabke pehla support level 186.48 pe identify kiya gaya hai.

Labor Market Data Ka Asar

GBP/JPY cross ne early European trading hours ke dauran 189.20 ke aas-paas buyers ko attract kiya hai. Pound Sterling (GBP) ko UK ki latest labor market data ke baad traction mil raha hai, jisme unemployment mein unexpected decrease dekha gaya hai jo June ke 3 mahine tak ka hai.

UK ka unemployment rate April se June ke darmiyan 4.2% tak gir gaya, jo pehle 4.4% tha, jese ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ne Tuesday ko bataya. Economists ne is figure mein 4.5% tak ka izafa expect kiya tha. Iske ilawa, Claimant Count Change July mein 135K tak barh gaya, jo June ke revised gain 32.3K ke muqable mein bohot zyada tha, jabke estimated increase sirf 14.5K thi.

Technical Analysis Insights

GBP/JPY abhi bhi 4-hour chart par bearish outlook retain kar raha hai, kyunki yeh crucial 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche hai. Magar, RSI midline ke upar 61.85 pe honay ki wajah se thodi upside ki bhi guftugu ho rahi hai.

Potential Price Movements

Agar 189.50 ke aas-paas Bollinger Band ki upper boundary decisively break hoti hai, to 192.00 ke psychological level tak upar ki taraf movement dekhi ja sakti hai. Is level ke aage buying momentum continue hone par 193.26 tak bhi pahunchne ka imkaan hai, jo August 1 ka high hai.




Dosri taraf, 9 August ka low 186.48 initial support level ka kaam karega. 185.55-185.60 zone mein ek aham contention area bana rahega, jo 8 August ke low aur Bollinger Band ke lower limit ke mutabiq hai. Additional downside pressure ko 6 August ke low 182.81 par monitor karna hoga.

GBP/JPY Pair Ki Teesray Din Tak Lagataar Gains

Friday ko GBP/JPY pair ne teesray din bhi gains dekhay, aur lagbhag 191.60 ke level par thoda upar close hua. Is upward movement ka asal sabab British pound ki taqat thi, jo August mein release hone wale positive economic data ki wajah se support hui thi. S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ke pehlay results ne business activity mein rebound dikhaya. August mein PMI 53.4 tak barh gaya, jo July ke 52.8 se zyada aur economists ke expectations 52.9 ko cross karta hai. Manufacturing aur services sectors dono ne is positive growth mein apna hissa dala, jisme S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 52.5 tak barh gaya aur UK Services PMI 53.3 tak chala gaya. Ye positive economic indicators doosray baray economies ke complex picture ke contrast mein hain.

Haal mein UK retail sales aur government borrowing ka data mixed implications ka sabub bana pound ke liye. July mein retail sales ne June ke decline ke baad growth dikhayi, magar government borrowing expect ki gayi se zyada thi. Is borrowing ka asar financial markets par depend karega hukoomat ke future response par. Market expectations ab bhi anticipate karte hain ke Bank of England (BoE) 2024 ke aakhir tak 0.25% interest rate cut karegi. Kuch analysts to 0.50% cuts ke bhi predictions kar rahe hain, jo ke do phases mein ho sakte hain year-end se pehle. Lekin in lower interest rates ki expectations pound par downward pressure dal sakti hain, kyunki ye foreign capital inflows ko kam kar sakti hain.

GBP/JPY Ka July Mein Sharp Sell-Off

July mein GBP/JPY pair ne ek sharp sell-off ka samna kiya, jo 16 saal ke high 208.10 se gir kar 5 August ko 180.07 ka low touch kar gaya. Uske baad se pair recovery mode mein hai, lekin 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ne is upward momentum ko temporarily roka hai. Agar bears recent upward trend ko reverse karne ki koshish karte hain, to April ka support level 190.00 pe pehla rukawat banega jo unhe cross karna hoga. Agle declines ko near-term support 188.22 pe rok sakta hai, followed by February ka low 185.22 par. Agar price in levels ke upar rehne mein nakam hota hai, to yeh 180.07 ke eight-month low tak gir sakta hai.




Dusri taraf, agar rally continue hoti hai to initial resistance recent rejection zone 192.01 pe mil sakta hai, jo 200-day SMA ke sath coincide karta hai. Agar yeh area breakout ho gaya, to March ke high 193.52 ki taraf movement ka darwaza khul sakta hai. Is hurdle ko overcome karne ke liye bulls ko June ke support level 197.18 ko attack karna hoga, jo future mein resistance ka kaam kar sakta hai.

GBP/JPY Currency Pair Ki Halat

Tuesday ko GBP/JPY currency pair ne resurgence dikhaya aur do din ke lagataar losses ko snap karte hue phir se 191.20 ke aas-paas chala gaya. Is uptick ka asal sabab Japanese yen (JPY) ki broader sell-off thi, jo short term mein continue hone ki umeed hai. Investors ke focus mein Friday ko release hone wala Japan ka national consumer price index (CPI) data hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne ek mazboot economic recovery ka optimism dikhaya hai, jo unke mutabiq inflation ko 2% target ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Is umeed ki wajah se speculation ho rahi hai ke BoJ apni monetary policy ko unwind karne ke liye interest rate hikes kar sakti hai. Agar aisa hota hai, to yen mazboot ho jayega, jo un currency pairs ke liye headwinds create karega jinme Japanese currency shaamil hai.

Lekin, iske muqable mein global markets mein risk appetite improve ho raha hai aur Middle East mein geopolitical tensions mein kami aa rahi hai. Ye developments safe-haven currencies jaise yen ko weaken karti hain. Halanki, US ne Israel aur Hamas ke darmiyan ek deal broker ki hai, lekin halat ab bhi nazuk hain. Agar tensions escalate hoti hain, to yen ki safe-haven demand wapas barh sakti hai.

Sterling, jo GBP/JPY ka doosra hissa hai, usko support mil raha hai BoE (Bank of England) ke hawkish stance ki wajah se. September meeting mein BoE ka interest rate 5.0% par qaim rehne ki umeed hai. IBOSS ke chief economist Robert Thompson ne anticipate kiya hai ke agla rate cut November tak delay ho jayega. Is hawkish stance ne pound ko mazbooti di hui hai.

Teesra Lagataar Din Gains Ka

Is momentum ko barhawa dete hue, GBP/JPY ne apna teesra lagataar din gains mein record kiya hai, August 5 ke low se lagbhag 4% recovery dikhayi hai. Halanki, market volatility kuch had tak kam hui hai, lekin low liquidity conditions ab bhi price movements ko amplify kar rahe hain. Investors ka focus ab UK ka headline CPI report par shift ho raha hai jo agle hafte scheduled hai.

Technical indicators bhi GBP/JPY ke recent bullish trend ko support karte hain. Average Directional Index (ADX) sideways move kar raha hai, jo ek weakening downtrend ka asar hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) apne midpoint ki taraf trend kar raha hai, jabke Stochastic oscillator apni moving average aur oversold zone ke upar chadh raha hai, jo ongoing uptrend ko reinforce karta hai.




Agar bullish sentiment barqaraar raha, to GBP/JPY March 31, 2004 ke low 189.61 ko breach karne ki koshish kar sakta hai, phir 192.57 aur 193.60 ke resistance zone ko target kar sakta hai. Ye zone July 21, 2005 ke low, 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), aur July 20, 2021 se July 11, 2024 tak ke uptrend ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement se mark kiya gaya hai.

Akhir mein, GBP/JPY pair ka trajectory BoJ ke monetary policy decisions, geopolitical developments, aur UK ke economic data ke interplay par depend karega.

GBP/JPY Mid-March ke Baad Apni Sabse Kam Level Par
Overview

GBP/JPY currency pair ne European trading session ke dauran mid-March ke baad apni sabse kam level ko chhoo liya hai. Yeh 208.11 se kaafi neeche gir gaya hai, jiss ki wajah yen ki dobara taqat aur mumkin Japanese interventions hain. Iske ilawa, Bank of England ki rate cut ne sterling par mazeed dabao daala hai.

Bearish Signals

Kayi mazboot bearish signals saamne aaye hain jo pair mein mazeed girawat ki imkaanat zahir karte hain, jin mein shaamil hain:

1. Daily Cloud Pattern Rise: Rozana badalne wale cloud pattern ka upar uthna aam taur par asset ki manfi soch ko zahir karta hai, jo mazeed girawat ki taraf ishara deta hai.
2. 200-Day Moving Average Se Neeche Jana: Yeh long-term moving average ke neeche girawat aam taur par trend ki kamzori zahir karti hai aur selling pressure ko trigger kar sakti hai.
3. Support Level 189.55 Se Neeche Jana: Jab qeemat mustahkam support level ke neeche girti hai, toh aam tor par bearish sentiment barh jata hai, jo mazeed qeemat ki girawat ka sabab banta hai.

Yeh indicators is baat ki taraf ishara karte hain ke pair mazeed girawat ki taraf jaa sakta hai aur mazboot bearish outlook ko mazbooti deta hai.

Monthly Performance

Pair July ke mahine ko red mein khatam karne ke raaste par hai, chaar musalsal hafton ke losses ke saath. Yeh trend June 2016 ke baad se sabse bara mahana nuqsan zahir karta hai, jo manfi soorat-e-haal ko aur bhi mazboot karta hai kyunke ek reversal pattern mahana chart par banta dikh raha hai.

Is waqt, GBP/JPY 190.30 ke range mein trade ho raha hai, ek chhoti si sahih karne wali izafey ke baad. Lekin ummeed hai ke is chote upward impulse ke baad, qeemat 194.10 ki range ki taraf neeche jaane ki koshish karegi. Agar local maximum 194.00 ke upar break hota hai aur is level ke upar consolidate karta hai, toh yeh ek buy signal deta hai.

Iske baraks, 190.40 range ke aas paas ek galat breakout ho sakta hai, jo short positions par tight stop-loss orders ki ijazat dega. 190.50 ke upar ka break ek mumkin upward movement ke bahali ka ishara de sakta hai.

Support Levels

Ahem support 187.80 par hai. Bohat zyada oversold daily indicators iss hafte ke aakhir tak partial profit-taking ko encourage kar sakte hain, lekin uptrends mazeed kamzori zahir karte hain. Pehle se tooti hui 200-day moving average ab pehla resistance ban gayi hai 191.74 par, jab ke mazeed resistance 196.83 par hai, jo rebounds ko limited rakhne aur bearish sentiment ko barqarar rakhne mein madad kar sakti hai. Neeche jaane ke liye mojooda targets 185.66 aur 183.56 par set hain. RSI (Relative Strength Index) iss waqt oversold territory mein hai, jo mumkin rally ki taraf ishara karta hai.

Market Influences

GBP/JPY ki movement UK Parliamentary Elections aur mukhtalif technical analysis indicators se mutasir hoti hai. Construction PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) rates ibtedai taur par buyer activity ko support kar sakte hain; lekin UK Pound ki mazboot tor par kamzori ki wasseh tawakkuat ek strategic sell stance ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders market shifts par nazar rakh kar aur in tabdiliyon ka jawab dekar faida hasil kar sakte hain.

Trading Strategy

H1 timeframe chart par, ek resistance area FTR (Failure to Return)/DBD (Double Bottom Divergence) region mein ban chuka hai, jahan price abhi tak consolidate kar raha hai pehle support ko todne aur nayi lower high banane ke baad. Yeh area SND (Supply and Demand) traders ke liye kaafi ahem hai, kyunke yeh market mein entry ke liye achi risk-reward mauka deta hai.

Har section ko tod kar aur wazahat kar ke, humne GBP/JPY currency pair ki mukammal analysis pesh ki hai, jo us ke haali trends, signals, aur trading ki strategies par focus karti hai

21-Day EMA par Muzahmat: GBP/JPY currency pair is waqt ek ahem resistance level ke qareeb hai jo 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par hai, jo qareeb 191.63 par positioned hai. EMA ek ahem technical indicator hai jo price data ko smooth out karke trends ko highlight karta hai. Jab price 21-day EMA ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aksar is baat ka ishara hota hai ke price ya to reverse kar sakti hai ya consolidate. Traders aur investors is level ko barabar dekhte hain, takay price action ke signal mil sakein, jaise ke resistance jo mazeed upar jane se rok sake. GBP/JPY ke daily chart ka jaiza yeh dikhata hai ke bullish bias kamzor ho raha hai. Is observation ka matlab hai ke jo momentum pair ko upar le kar ja raha tha, wo ab kamzor ho raha hai. Bullish bias ka kamzor hona kai factors ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jaise ke overbought conditions, market sentiment ka shift hona, ya nayi economic data jo pehle ke upward trend ko challenge kar rahi ho. Traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke yeh tamam elements ko dekhte hue future price movement ka potential samjhen Bearish Shift ka Imkan: Ek ahem technical feature jo dekhne laayak hai wo hai ascending channel jisme GBP/JPY trade kar raha hai. Agar price is ascending channel ke neeche break kar jati hai, to yeh bullish se bearish market bias mein tabdeel hone ka signal ho sakta hai. Ascending channel aksar ek consistent upward trend ko represent karta hai, jisme higher highs aur higher lows hoti hain. Agar price is channel ke neeche gir jati hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke upward trend ab kamzor ho raha hai aur market sentiment bearishness ki taraf shift ho raha hai Economic Data Releases: UK aur Japan, dono ke economic indicators GBP/JPY ki movements par aham asar dalte hain. Misal ke taur par, agar UK ki economic data strong hoti hai to yeh GBP ke liye bullish outlook ko support kar sakti hai, jabke weak data GBP par pressure daal sakti hai. Isi tarah Japan mein economic developments, jaise ke monetary policy mein changes ya economic performance, bhi exchange rate par asar dalti hain Monetary Policy Divergence: Bank of England (BoE) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki interest rate decisions aur monetary policies bahut aham hain. In do central banks ke darmiyan monetary policy mein farq se GBP/JPY pair mein volatility paida ho sakti hai. Misal ke taur par, agar BoE BoJ ke muqable mein zyada hawkish stance adopt karta hai, to yeh GBP ko JPY ke muqable mein mazid boost de sakta hai
Geopolitical aur Market Sentiment: Wasee tor par geopolitical events aur market sentiment GBP/JPY pair par asar dal sakte hain. Aise events jaise ke political developments, trade negotiations, ya global risk sentiment mein changes, investor behavior ko mutasir kar sakte hain aur exchange rate par

o 180.07 ke support level tak le aaye hain, jo ke 2024 ke aghaz se ab tak ka sabse lowest level hai. Analysis likhte waqt, yeh pair 183.55 ke level par stable hai. Main aksar apne reliable trading recommendations page par mid-July trading mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6Kal ke trading mein, pound ne subeh ke auqat mein tamam major currencies ke against rise kiya, aur GBP/EUR exchange rate bhi upar gaya jab official data ne yeh dikhaya ke UK employment mein izafa hua aur unemployment rate dusre quarter ke akhir mein gir gaya , jisne pound ko tamam major currencies ke against higher push kiya. Reliable trading platforms ke mutabiq, UK Office for National Statistics ne bataya ke May mein unemployment rate 4.4% se gir kar 4.2% ho gaya St, jo ke second quarter ke growth trend ko reverse karta hai. Is development ke baad pound ne US dollar, euro aur doosri major currencies ke against rise kiya, jisme sabse bara gain low-yielding financial

paas upar aur neeche chalti rahi, jo ke 188.67 - 188.74 ke numbers ke aas paas cross hui. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 lines bhi is hi behaviour ko follow kar rahi thi, jo angled aur flat thi. Qeemat jo upar jane ki koshish kar





rahi thi, woh 189.48 ke high ko cross nahi kar payi, jo is hafte ka highest number tha jo Tuesday ko bana tha. Is failure ne sellers ko dominate karne ka mauka diya. Afsoos, seller pressure sirf qeemat ko 187.84 tak shift kar paya, uske baad qeemat phir se upar push hui aur EMA 200 ke aas paas ghoomti rahi. Yeh halat abhi bhi trend ko unclear aur biased banati hai. Yeh surat-e-haal Thursday ke dopahar tak jaari rahi. Market aaj subah 188.90 par open hui. Qeemat daily open ke upar dekhi gayi aur EMA 200 thodi neeche thi. Flat EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ab upar ki taraf point kar rahi hain. Sabse nazdeek resistance 189.97 hoga, jo ke bullish price movement ke liye dekhna hoga. Bullish candles patli bodies aur upper aur lower shadows ke saath bani hain. Kal ke narrow price movement mein high aur low 187.84 aur 189.41 ke prices par bane. Daily chart par, qeemat daily resistance 188.87 ko break karne ki koshish kar rahi hai aur wahan resistance ka samna kar rahi hai. Jab qeemat thoda upar jaati hai, EMA 12 daily line is positive movement ko rokne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Correction phase ab bhi chal raha hai jahan qeemat upar ki taraf chalti ja rahi hai. Mazid taqatwar qeemat ab EMA 200 daily line ki taraf ja rahi hai, lekin filhal qeemat EMA 12 daily ko test kar rahi hai. Agar is baar yeh 188.87 ko break karne aur EMA 12 daily ko cross karne mein kamiyab hoti hai, to EMA 200 ka goal haqdaar hoga. Aur yeh bhi mumkin hai ke is se trend ka direction badal jaye jo ke abhi bhi downtrend mein hai kyunki EMA 200 H1 line ke neeche move kar rahi hai. Daily stochastic ab bhi upar point kar raha hai, halankeh yeh level 100 tak pahunch chuka hai aur yeh buyers ke liye caution ka signal hai kyunki qeemat soon overbought signal respond kar sakti hai jo qeemat ko phir se neeche le jaa sakti hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 daily ab bhi wahi hain, dono EMA lines neeche latakti hain jo indicate karti hain ke qeemat ka movement abhi bhi bearish hai. Agar qeemat EMA 12 daily se reject hoti hai, to 187.04 area jo weekly open hai aur daily support bhi hai, pehla target hoga.

July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis share karoon ga. Aap meri technical analysis mein improvements karne ke liye bilkul free hain. Main aap se is par discuss karne mein khushi mehsoos karoon ga. Apna support dikhane ke liye, "like" button par click karein. GB

1-Day EMA par Muzahmat: GBP /JPY currency pair is waqt ek ahem resistance level ke qareeb hai jo 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par hai, jo qareeb 191.63 par positioned hai. EMA ek ahem technical indicator hai jo price data ko smooth out karke trends ko highlight karta hai. Jab price 21-day EMA ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aksar is baat ka ishara hota hai ke price ya to reverse kar sakti hai ya consolidate. Traders aur investors is level ko barabar dekhte hain, takay price action ke signal mil sakein, jaise ke resistance jo mazeed upar jane se rok sake. GBP/JPY ke daily chart ka jaiza yeh dikhata hai ke bullish bias kamzor ho raha hai. Is observation ka matlab hai ke jo momentum pair ko upar le kar ja raha tha, wo ab kamzor ho raha hai. Bullish bias ka kamzor hona kai factors ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jaise ke overbought conditions, market sentiment ka shift hona, ya nayi economic data jo pehle ke upward trend ko challenge kar rahi ho. Traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke yeh tamam elements ko dekhte hue future price movement ka potential samjhen Bearish Shift ka Imkan: Ek ahem technical feature jo dekhne laayak hai wo hai ascending channel jisme GBP/JPY trade kar raha hai. Agar price is ascending channel ke neeche break kar jati hai, to yeh bullish se bearish market bias mein tabdeel hone ka signal ho sakta hai. Ascending channel aksar ek consistent upward trend ko represent karta hai, jisme higher highs aur higher lows hoti hain. Agar price is channel ke neeche gir jati hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke upward trend ab kamzor ho raha hai aur market sentiment bearishness ki taraf shift ho raha hai Economic Data Releases: UK aur Japan, dono ke economic indicators GBP/JPY ki movements par aham asar dalte hain. Misal ke taur par, agar UK ki economic data strong hoti hai to yeh GBP ke liye bullish outlook ko support kar sakti hai, jabke weak data GBP par pressure daal sakti hai. Isi tarah Japan mein economic developments, jaise ke monetary policy mein changes ya economic performance, bhi exchange rate par asar dalti hain Monetary Policy Divergence: Bank of England (BoE) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki interest rate decisions aur monetary policies bahut aham hain. In do central banks ke darmiyan monetary policy mein farq se GBP/JPY pair mein volatility paida ho sakti hai. Misal ke taur par, agar BoE BoJ ke muqable mein zyada hawkish stance adopt karta hai, to yeh GBP ko JPY ke muqable mein mazid boost de sakta hai Geopolitical aur Market Sentiment: Wasee tor par geopolitical events aur market sentiment GBP/JPY pair par asar dal sakte hain. Aise events jaise ke political developments, trade negotiations, ya global risk sentiment mein changes, investor behavior ko mutasir kar sakte hain aur exchange rate

ke aas paas upar aur neeche chalti rahi, jo ke 188.67 - 188.74 ke numbers ke aas paas cross hui. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 lines bhi is hi behaviour ko follow kar rahi thi, jo angled aur flat thi. Qeemat jo upar jane ki koshish kar rahi thi, woh 189.48 ke high ko cross nahi kar payi, jo is hafte ka highest number tha jo




Tuesday ko bana tha. Is failure ne sellers ko dominate karne ka mauka diya. Afsoos, seller pressure sirf qeemat ko 187.84 tak shift kar paya, uske baad qeemat phir se upar push hui aur EMA 200 ke aas paas ghoomti rahi. Yeh halat abhi bhi trend ko unclear aur biased banati hai. Yeh surat-e-haal Thursday ke dopahar tak jaari rahi. Market aaj subah 188.90 par open hui. Qeemat daily open ke upar dekhi gayi aur EMA 200 thodi neeche thi. Flat EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ab upar ki taraf point kar rahi hain. Sabse nazdeek resistance 189.97 hoga, jo ke bullish price movement ke liye dekhna hoga. Bullish candles patli bodies aur upper aur lower shadows ke saath bani hain. Kal ke narrow price movement mein high aur low 187.84 aur 189.41 ke prices par bane. Daily chart par, qeemat daily resistance 188.87 ko break karne ki koshish kar rahi hai aur wahan resistance ka samna kar rahi hai. Jab qeemat thoda upar jaati hai, EMA 12 daily line is positive movement ko rokne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Correction phase ab bhi chal raha hai jahan qeemat upar ki taraf chalti ja rahi hai. Mazid taqatwar qeemat ab EMA 200 daily line ki taraf ja rahi hai, lekin filhal qeemat EMA 12 daily ko test kar rahi hai. Agar is baar yeh 188.87 ko break karne aur EMA 12 daily ko cross karne mein kamiyab hoti hai, to EMA 200 ka goal haqdaar hoga. Aur yeh bhi mumkin hai ke is se trend ka direction badal jaye jo ke abhi bhi downtrend mein hai kyunki EMA 200 H1 line ke neeche move kar rahi hai. Daily stochastic ab bhi upar point kar raha hai, halankeh yeh level 100 tak pahunch chuka hai aur yeh buyers ke liye caution ka signal hai kyunki qeemat soon overbought signal respond kar sakti hai jo qeemat ko phir se neeche le jaa sakti hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 daily ab bhi wahi hain, dono EMA lines neeche latakti hain jo indicate karti hain ke qeemat ka movement abhi bhi bearish hai. Agar qeemat EMA 12 daily se reject hoti hai, to 187.04 area jo weekly open hai aur daily support bhi hai, pehla target hoga.

Analysis likhte waqt, yeh pair 183.55 ke level par stable hai. Main aksar apne reliable trading recommendations page par mid-July trading mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis share karoon ga. Aap meri technical analysis mein improvements karne ke liye bilkul free hain

indicator hai jo price data ko smooth out karke trends ko highlight karta hai. Jab price 21-day EMA ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aksar is baat ka ishara hota hai ke price ya to reverse kar sakti hai ya consolidate. Traders aur investors is level ko barabar dekhte hain, takay price action ke signal mil sakein, jaise ke resistance jo mazeed upar jane se rok sake. GBP/JPY ke daily chart ka jaiza yeh dikhata hai ke bullish bias kamzor ho raha hai. Is observation ka matlab hai ke jo momentum pair ko upar le kar ja raha tha, wo ab kamzor ho raha hai. Bullish bias ka kamzor hona kai factors ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jaise ke overbought conditions, market sentiment ka shift hona, ya nayi economic data jo pehle ke upward trend ko challenge kar rahi ho. Traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke yeh tamam elements ko dekhte hue future price movement ka potential samjhen Bearish Shift ka Imkan: Ek ahem technical feature jo dekhne laayak hai wo hai ascending channel jisme GBP/JPY trade kar raha hai. Agar price is ascending channel ke neeche break kar jati hai, to yeh bullish se bearish market bias mein tabdeel hone ka signal ho sakta hai. Ascending channel aksar ek consistent upward trend ko represent karta hai, jisme higher highs aur higher lows hoti hain. Agar price is channel ke neeche gir jati hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke upward trend ab kamzor ho raha hai aur market sentiment bearishness ki taraf shift ho raha hai Economic Data Releases: UK aur Japan, dono ke economic indicators GBP/JPY ki movements par aham asar dalte hain. Misal ke taur par, agar UK ki economic data strong hoti hai to yeh GBP ke liye bullish outlook ko support kar sakti hai, jabke weak data GBP par pressure daal sakti hai. Isi tarah Japan mein economic developments, jaise ke monetary policy mein changes ya economic performance, bhi exchange rate par asar dalti hain Monetary Policy Divergence: Bank of England (BoE) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki interest rate decisions aur monetary policies bahut aham hain. In do central banks ke darmiyan monetary policy mein farq se GBP/JPY pair mein volatility paida ho sakti hai. Misal ke taur par, agar BoE BoJ ke muqable mein zyada hawkish stance adopt karta hai, to yeh GBP ko JPY ke muqable mein mazid boost de sakta hai Geopolitical aur Market Sentiment: Wasee tor par geopolitical events aur market sentiment GBP/JPY pair par asar dal sakte hain. Aise events jaise ke political developments, trade negotiations, ya global risk sentiment mein changes, investor behavior ko mutasir kar sakte hain aur exchange rate

sentiment ki wajah se hui. Lekin, pair ki overall trajectory abhi bhi ek maamool range mein rahi, jo zyadatar Bank of England (BoE) ki monetary policy aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke interest rate stance ke hawalay se chal rahi uncertainty ki wajah se hai. Haal hi mein UK ki inflation aur labor market data ne ek aur BoE rate cut ki imkaan ko kam kar diya hai, jis se pound ko support mil raha hai. Is ke ilawa, UK ke GDP figures upbeat hone ki wajah se spekulasyon hui hai ke BoE apne current




interest rate level ko September meeting mein maintain kar sakta hai. Ye factors, aur kamzor hoti Japanese yen ne pair ke upward movement mein hissa dala hai. Japan mein Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ke isteefa dene se paida hone wali siyasi be-yaqeeni ne yen ko aur bhi kamzor kiya hai. Yeh cheez mumkin hai ke BoJ ke maqsoodah rate hikes mein takheer ho, lekin investors abhi bhi Japan ke behtar hotay macroeconomic halaat aur mustaqbil ke interest rate increases ke hawalay se optimistic hain. Geopolitical risks yen ki dynamics ko asar andaz karte rehte hain, jo iske tez decline ko limit karte hain. Aanay wali UK PMI preview data aur Japan ke national consumer price index (CPI) ki release se short-term trading opportunities aur dono maeshat ki insight milegi. Bank of England ke Governor Andrew Bailey ki Jackson Hole Symposium mein appearance se market mein volatility ki tawaqo hai, jo GBP/JPY ko significant momentum de sakti hai. Pair ki recent stabilisation aur aakhri BoE rate cut ke baad pound ki recovery se sentiment mein shift ka imkaan zahir hota hai. Technical perspective se dekha jaye toh, Average Directional Index (ADX) yeh indicate kar raha hai ke GBP/JPY ki downtrend mein ease aa rahi hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) ooper ki taraf ja raha hai, aur Stochastic apne moving average aur oversold zone ke upar break kar raha hai, jo current moderate uptrend ko support karta hai. Agar bullish momentum barqarar rehta hai, toh GBP/JPY March 31, 2004 ke low 189.61 se ooper jaane ki koshish kar sakta hai aur congested 192.57-193.60 zone ko target kar sakta hai, jismein significant technical levels shaamil hain. Lekin, is resistance area ko overcome karne ke liye sustained upward pressure aur market

-day EMA ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aksar is baat ka ishara hota hai ke price ya to reverse kar sakti hai ya consolidate. Traders aur investors is level ko barabar dekhte hain, takay price action ke signal mil sakein, jaise ke resistance jo mazeed upar jane se rok sake. GBP/JPY ke daily chart ka jaiza yeh dikhata hai ke bullish bias kamzor ho raha hai. Is observation ka matlab hai ke jo momentum pair ko upar le kar ja raha tha, wo ab kamzor ho raha hai. Bullish bias ka kamzor hona kai factors ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jaise ke overbought conditions, market sentiment ka shift hona, ya nayi economic data jo pehle ke upward trend ko challenge kar rahi ho. Traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke yeh tamam elements ko dekhte hue future price movement ka potential samjhen Bearish Shift ka Imkan: Ek ahem technical




feature jo dekhne laayak hai wo hai ascending channel jisme GBP/JPY trade kar raha hai. Agar price is ascending channel ke neeche break kar jati hai, to yeh bullish se bearish market bias mein tabdeel hone ka signal ho sakta hai. Ascending channel aksar ek consistent upward trend ko represent karta hai, jisme higher highs aur higher lows hoti hain. Agar price is channel ke neeche gir jati hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke upward trend ab kamzor ho raha hai aur market sentiment bearishness ki taraf shift ho raha hai Economic Data Releases: UK aur Japan, dono ke economic indicators GBP/JPY ki movements par aham asar dalte hain. Misal ke taur par, agar UK ki economic data strong hoti hai to yeh GBP ke liye bullish outlook ko support kar sakti hai, jabke weak data GBP par pressure daal sakti hai. Isi tarah Japan mein economic developments, jaise ke monetary policy mein changes ya economic performance, bhi exchange rate par asar dalti hain Monetary Policy Divergence: Bank of England (BoE) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki interest rate decisions aur monetary policies bahut aham hain. In do central banks ke darmiyan monetary policy mein farq se GBP/JPY pair mein volatility paida ho sakti hai. Misal ke taur par, agar BoE BoJ ke muqable mein zyada hawkish stance adopt karta hai, to yeh GBP ko JPY ke muqable mein mazid boost de sakta hai Geopolitical aur Market Sentiment: Wasee tor par geopolitical events aur market sentiment GBP/JPY pair par asar dal sakte hain. Aise events jaise ke political developments, trade negotiations, ya global risk sentiment mein changes, investor behavior ko mutasir kar sakte hain aur exchange rate