جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

GBP/JPY Pair Ka Takhmina:


Aaj ke market ke dynamics mausam ke rang-birange hawalon ki tarah hain, jahan daam 188.05 tak chadha aur ab ek upward surge ka samna hai. Sharaarat se bhara hua maahaul hai aik strategy se khareedari ke liye. Lekin, ahtiyaati taur par approach zaroori hai, jo 188.05 ke qareeb ek pullback ke doraan khareedari ki zarurat ko hai. Behtareen toh yeh hoga keh sabar se intezar karein sab se kam daam ke liye, jis se mumkinat hai candle movements ke andar ki qabl-i-peshgoi mein kamyabi hasil karne ki. Mumkin hai keh ek soch samajh kar candle ki chalaki sey financial markets ke muhawaron mein parvezish aur paishgoi ki darustagi dikhate hain. Bina zarurat ke risks lena kismat ko azmana ke barabar hai, aur maali koshishon mein ehtiyaat bartari se lazmi hai. Pichle Tuesday mein aham resistance level 186.75 ka tor ho gaya tha, lekin kal bears ko kam az kam pehle ke haare hue positions ko wapas hasil karne ka moqa mila, lekin bechne walay sach mein is moqe ka faida uthane mein nakam rahe.

Soch samajh kar aur hisaab se market ke harkaton ka istemal kar ke, kisi bhi nakaam hasool ke imkaanat ko barha sakte hain. Sabar market ke mawaqe mein moqaat ka intezar karte waqt khasi ke tor par aham ban jata hai. Nuksan se bachne ke liye, aik munasib strategy hai keh 188.04 par aik stop set kiya jaye. Yeh ehtiyaati tadbeer yeh tasdeeq karta hai keh agar manzoor naatija aaye, toh shakhs pooray investement ko khatre mein daal ke nahi rahega aur dobara tajzia kar sakega. Aakhir mein, maali mamlat mein faisla karne ki process market ke harkaton ko peshgoi karne ki nazakat se milti julti hai. Sochi samji strategy ke saath, jo ke stops set karne jesi hifazati tadabeer se puri karai jaye, yeh investement safar ko mazeed maqboli aur agahi ke sath bana sakta hai. Har qisam ki koshish mein, masnuiyat-e-market ki bay-tahashaeyi ko izzat dena hoshiyari hai aur be-zaroor jokhimat se bachna chahiye jo shakhs ke maali salamati ko khatrey mein daal sakti hain.

GBP/JPY H4 TIME FRAME ANALYSIS

Jaisa keh 4-hour chart se dekha ja sakta hai British Pound vs. Japanese Yen (neeche), daam 180.87 ke ooper bullish trend mein hai. Daam 20 moving average ko maanta hai aur har baar utarta hua utarta hai, lekin teen mukhtalif mawqe' par kabhi bhi is ke neeche trade nahi karta. Mojudah daam 187.01 ab iska chaarwan imtehan hai. Agar daam 186.74 ke neeche na giray, toh mujhe lagta hai keh giravat jaari nahi rahegi. Balkay, daam barhay ga aur naye urooj par pahunchega, jaise keh ham ne peechlay namoonaon mein dekha hai. Is liye mojudah daam par kharidari tajweez ki jaati hai. Close-stop loss mojudah daam se 30 pips neeche rakha ja sakta hai, aur nishana 170 se 190 pips ho sakta hai.





H1 TIME CHART

Aaj main umeed karta hoon keh pair apni uptrend jaari rakhega, aur yeh pair buland honay ka shumar hoga. Mujhe umeed thi keh yeh 189.40 ke daam par pahunchega. Lekin aaj, umeed kaam nahi aayi, aur pair ne neechay ki taraf raftar ikhtiyar ki. Ab main yeh umeed rakhta hoon keh pair neechay ki taraf jari rahega, aur daam neeche ki simt pohanchega, jo keh ascending channel ki had hai, yani 186.52 ke daam par. Jab channel ki had tak pohanchay ga, toh pair reversal ka sabab ban sakta hai, daam ooper ki taraf ja sakta hai, aur pair ascending channel ki upper boundary tak pahunch sakta hai. Aur pair ke liye aglay option mein ye bhi mumkin hai: agar daam girne ka silsila jaari rahe, toh pair 186.52 ke daam tak gir sakta hai.

GBP/JPY

Kal se bechne wale ne daam chalne mein GBPJPY market par hawi raha. Yeh haalaat pehle ke trading conditions ko jari rakhta hai, jahaan tez taraqi ke baad ek corrective movement tha jo kal bhi jaari raha. 187.60 area, jo ki sabse nazdeek ka lower resistance tha, usko bechne wale ne penetrate kiya hai. Europe session mein movement mehsoos ki gayi, phir kamzori jaari rahi jab tak ki yeh lowest figure, 186.80 ko touch kiya aur movement kam hone lagi. Kal ke bearish prices ko EMA 12 aur EMA 36 ne mark kiya tha, jo pehle sirf curve kiye gaye the, lekin aakhir mein do EMAs ke beech ek downward crossover hua jisse bearish prices H1 time frame par confirm hue. Haalaanki, trend abhi bhi uptrend mein hai jo prices ko phir se rally karne ki ijazat deta hai. Agar dabaav stable rahega toh agla target EMA 200 ho sakta hai, lekin agar najdeek ki support area mein rejection hua toh yeh ek mauka hoga buyers ke liye wapas apne bullish path par lautne ka jo peechhe reh gaya tha.




D-1 Time Frame

Dikhta hai ki bechne wale pehle hue bullish movement ko bandh karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Buyers ke support na dene se jo ki 187.59 resistance area se hua, yeh sellers ke liye ek mauka hai ki woh prices par dabaav daal kar market ko dominate karne ki koshish karein. Ek bearish candle ka appearance, jo previous candle ki size ke same hai, naye signal ki tarah lag raha hai agle price movement ke liye. Price movements ne last Thursday ke trading ke dauran 187.94 aur 186.80 figure banaye. Yeh estimate kiya jaata hai ki agar 186.80 ke low mein breakthrough hua toh aaj weakening jaari rahegi, nearest target daily support, 186.08 hoga. Agar price iss support area ko tod paata hai toh correction signal validate ho jaayega aur weakening lower level tak ja sakti hai. Issi dauraan, daily stochastic ne overbought market condition dikhaya hai. Wahin, trend abhi bhi long uptrend period mein hai. Ek aur mauka jo dhyaan diya jaana chahiye woh yeh hai ki agar price 186.80 ke low mein penetrate nahi kar paata ya fir 186.08 area mein pullback aata hai toh yeh naye buyers ke liye ek raasta ho sakta hai ki woh GBPJPY market mein phir se dominate karein. Overall, bullish trend mein rally ke liye abhi bhi mauka hai, lekin corrective period ki possibility bhi worth considering hai.




H-1 Time Frame

Vartamaan mein bearish movement abhi bhi dominant dikh raha hai, jahaan price ne Friday ke daily open pivot, 187.08 se neeche shift kiya hai. Nazdeek ke support aur resistance levels 186.63 aur 187.53 par bane hain. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 abhi bhi neeche ki taraf extend ho rahe hain aur EMA 200 vartamaan movement ke neeche hai jo ki 186.11 ke pass hai. Aur yahaan aaj ka transaction plan hai:
186.63 ke support area ko todne par sell breakout karna, jab EMA 12 aur EMA 36 neeche point kar rahe hain, stochastic overbought hai, aur take profit 186.11 – 185.89 ya EMA 200 H1 ke aaspaas ki calculation karna. Sell pullback bhi consider kiya ja sakta hai agar price 187.60 area paar nahi kar paata hai, jahaan ke sabse nazdeek goal hai aaj ke market opening area tak lautna.
187.53 resistance ko todne par buy breakout karna, jab market oversold conditions dikhata hai, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 upper point kar rahe hain, aur take profit 188.27 level tak karna. Buy pullback bhi consider kiya ja sakta hai agar price EMA 200 H1 line par rejection dikhata hai aur strengthen hota hai EMA 36 H1 ya 187.08 ki taraf. Stoploss 15 pips order area se.

"GBP-JPY ki keemat gir gayi thi kal phir se. GBP-JPY market mein, sellers ne subah se keemat ki harkaton ko dominate kiya. Haalat aaj jesi hain jesi Tuesday ko thi, jab tezi ke baad ek correctie movement hua jo kal bhi jaari raha. Sellers ne 187.60 region jo ke najdik ka lower resistance hai, usko bhi tohda. European session mein kuch kam harkat thi. Uske baad kamzor harkat jaari rahi jab tak woh lowest figure 186.80 tak na pohancha. EMAs 12 aur 36 ne jo sirf curve kiya tha, woh kal ke bearish prices ko dikhaya. Dono EMAs ne downward crossover kiya, H1 time frame par bearish prices ko confirm karte hue. Walaupne ke trend abhi bhi upward phase mein hai jo ke prices ko phir se rally karne deta hai. Agar dabaav stable raha, toh EMA 200 agla target ho sakta hai; agar najdeek ka support area reject ho jaye toh buyers ke liye ek mauqa hoga unke hindered bullish path ko dubara shuru karne ka.





TRADING PLAN


Is waqt, keemat Friday ke daily open pivot 187.08 se neeche chali gayi hai, bearish trend ko jaari rakhte hue. Prices 186.63 aur 187.53 par najdeek support aur resistance ke levels form huye hain. Current movement support at 186.11 ke parallel hai aur EMA 200 uske neeche hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 abhi bhi nichay ki taraf extend hone lag rahe hain. Yahan aaj ke liye transaction plan hai:



BUY SETUP


Agar price 186.63 support area ko break kare, toh ye sell breakout hai; maine overbought stochastic dekha hai. EMAs 12 aur 36 abhi bhi nichay point kar rahe hain, aur take-profit EMA 200 H1 ke aas-paas calculate hua hai. Agar price 187.60 region ko break na kare, toh sell pullback ko consider karna chahiye, jiska target najdeek hoga.


SELL SETUP


Agar price 187.53 resistance level ko tod de, toh take-profit level 188.27 tak hai. Ye dikhaata hai ke market oversold hai aur EMAs 12 aur 36 upper direction mein hain. Agar price EMA 200 H1 line par reject ho jaaye, toh buy pullback ki taraf dekha ja sakta hai jiska aim EMA 36 H1 ya 187.08 ho sakta hai.

Order area se 15 pips bahar jaane ka risk rakhna important hai."

GBP/JPY cross ne Friday ko doosre din bhi bechani ka samna kia aur yeh November 2015 se sab se buland level se door ja rahi hai, jo is hafte pehle 188.25-188.30 area tak pohanchi thi. Yeh waqtanfeen mojooda daur mein qareeban 186.85-186.80 area par trade ho rahi hai, din ke liye sirf 0.10% ke nichayi mein, jabke traders ab UK retail sales data ki taraf tawajjuh kar rahe hain taaza stimulus ke liye. Wohi par, muneef UK consumer inflation data jo Wednesday ko jaari hua tha, market ki tawaqo ko tasdeeq karta hai ke Bank of England jald hi rates ko kam karna shuru kar degi. Yeh British pound ki arzoo se peeche rehne ka aik barham hai aur GBP/JPY cross par dabao dal raha hai. Is ke ilawa, aik mamooli risk tone se Japanese yen ki taraf se kuch haven flows aa rahe hain aur is se bearish tone mein madad milti hai.

Magar, JPY ke liye koi bhi mayaar bhari qadra mein izafa mutawaqqa nazar nahi aata Bank of Japan ki zyada mawafiq hawale se. Haqeeqat mein, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ne yeh Friday phir se bayan kia ke central bank mustahkam nazarat ke saath ultra-loose monetary policy settings ko barqarar rakhay ga, kyunke inflation target ki mustawab pohanch abhi tak nazar nahi aa rahi hai. Ueda ne izafa karte hue kaha ke trend inflation fiscal 2025 tak 2% tak pohanch jaye ga. Yeh JPY ko kamzor karne mein jari rahe ga aur GBP/JPY cross ki nichayi hadood ko had se zyada nahi girne dega. Isi dauran, Japan ke Vice Finance Minister Ryosei Akazawa ne dobara yeh bayan kia hai ke sarkar FX market mein istehsal ko rokne ke liye mudakhilat kar sakti hai. Yeh aggressive bullish bets karne wale traders ko rok sakta hai aur spot prices par hadood ko qaim rakh sakta hai. Lekin phir bhi, yeh cross teesri barri haftay ki munafa hasil karne ke liye raasta mein hai.

GBPJPY ANALYSIS

Mujhe lagta hai ke Japanese yen ne jo kuch mahinon mein khoya tha, wo ab wapas hasool karne laga hai. Jumeraat ke din, Asia ke trading session mein, British pound ke qeemat Japanese yen ke muqablay mein 187.00 se 185.40 tak gir gayi, aur yeh ziyada se ziyada 160 points neeche gayi. Lekin jab European trading session shuru hua, mujhe note kya ke British pound ki qeemat mein izafa hua, currency pair ki manzil ko ulta kar ke usey 110 points upar le gaya. Mujhe yakeen hai ke yeh factors aglay hafte tak ke dauran qeemat mein idhar udhar ki teziyan barqarar rakhenge, 185.27 ke support level aur naye shakhsiyat hasil karne wale 187.23 ke resistance level ke darmiyan. Mein umeed karta hoon ke yeh hinahinayi aur charkhauf ki harkat qeemat ko kai martabah resistance tak pohanchanay tak chalay gi. Yeh silsila kam az kam do martabah ho sakta hai, jab tak qeemat naye rukh tay karne ka faisla na karay."

"Maine dekha ke market mein aksar aisa hota hai jab ek currency pair kisi important support ya resistance level ke qareeb pohanchta hai, to wahan price mein idhar udhar ki harkat hoti hai, jise traders consolidation phase kehte hain. Is phase mein, market ek direction tay karne se pehle thoda sa 'rest' karta hai taake aglay kadam ka faisla ho sake. Yeh phase market ke price fluctuations ko stabilize karne mein madadgar hota hai aur traders ko aglay moves ke liye taiyar karta hai."




"Yeh fluctuating market, traders ke liye ek mukhtasar mouqa bhi hota hai takay woh market ka behavior samajh sake aur sahi samay par trading decisions le sakein. Is samay, yeh price swings market ki asliyat ko dikhate hain aur traders ko aglay steps ke liye tayyar rakhte hain. Yeh bhi yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke is phase mein emotional control rakhna bhi zaroori hai taake trading mein zyada nuqsan se bacha ja sake. Is tarah ke movements ke dauran, patience aur analysis kaafi zaroori hota hai taake sahi samay par entry aur exit kar sakein. Sab se zaroori baat yeh hai ke market ke fluctuations ko samajhna aur wahan ke trends ko observe karna hi asal kaam hai jo successful trading ke liye zaroori hota hai.

Main yeh nahi keh raha ke is harkat ko predict karna asaan hai, lekin yeh zarooraat hai ke traders apni strategies ko adjust karte rahein aur market ke mukhtalif scenarios ko samajhne ki koshish karte rahein. Overall, yeh phase ek opportunity bhi ho sakta hai, jisme traders naye strategies test kar sakte hain aur market ke behaviour ko samajh sakte hain."

GBP/JPY cross nay Jumma ko doosre din bhi bechne ka dabao mehsoos kiya aur is hafte ki pehli shuruaat se door chala gaya, jo ke November 2015 se sab se ooncha tha, jab isne pehle is haftay mein 188.25-188.30 ke area ko chhooa tha. Maujooda keemat 186.85-186.80 ke area ke qareeb trading kar rahi hai, din ke 0.10% kam hokar, jabke traders ab naye impetus ke liye UK retail sales data ki taraf dekh rahe hain. Waise hi, Budh ke din naram UK consumer inflation data ne market ki umeedein tasdeeq ki, jo ke Bank of England ko jald hi daromadarat kam karne ki shuruaat karne ki umeed hai. Yeh cheez British pound ki relative kum performance ke peechay aik important factor hai aur GBP/JPY cross par dabao daal rahi hai. Iske ilawa, thora sa risk tone Japanese yen ki taraf kuch haven flows ko bada raha hai aur bearish tone mein hissa daal raha hai.





Lekin, JPY ke liye koi bhi maani jaanay wali izafa ki harkat Bank of Japan ki ziyada accomodative stance ki roshni mein ab bhi mushkil hai. Haqeeqat mein, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ne yeh Jumma ko dobara ye keh diya hai ke central bank munafaat barpaar mein inflation target ka sustainable hasool abhi tak nazar nahi aa raha hai, is liye wo ultra-loose monetary policy settings ko rokay baghair rakhna chahte hain. Ueda ne ye bhi kaha hai ke trend inflation fiscal 2025 tak 2% tak pohanchay ga. Yeh JPY ko mazeed kamzor kar sakta hai aur GBP/JPY cross ki downslide ko hadood mein rehnay mein madad kar sakta hai. Isi doran, Japan ke Vice Finance Minister Ryosei Akazawa ne dobara yeh keh diya hai ke sarkar FX market mein izafaat ke ilzaam se rokawat daalay gi. Yeh traders ko aggressive bullish bets na lagane aur spot prices par ek upper bound lagane se rok sakta hai. Magar phir bhi, cross teesri mubaarak hafte ke liye munafa register karne ki raah par hai.

Main yeh samajhta hoon ke Japanese yen ne jo kuch mahinon mein khooya tha, uss mein se kuch hissa wapas jeetna shuru kiya hai. Jumeraat ko, Asian trading session mein, British pound ki keemat Japanese yen ke muqablay mein 187.00 se 185.40 tak gir gayi, yani 160 points se zyada neeche chali gayi. Lekin jab European trading session shuru hui, mujhe notice hua ke British pound ki keemat mein izafa hua, jisse currency pair ka raasta palat gaya aur 110 points tak oopar chala gaya. Mujhe lagta hai ke yeh factors agle hafte mein 185.27 ke support level aur naye resistance level 187.23 ke darmiyaan ke beech keemat mein fluctuations ka karan banenge. Mujhe yeh ummeed hai ke yeh aage bhi aise hi tawaon ko jari rakhega jab tak keemat resistance level tak na pahunch jaaye, jisse woh dobara support level ko test kare. Yeh cycle kam az kam do baar hone ki sambhavna hai phir jab keemat ko naye raaste tak set karne ka faisla karna hoga.




Bilkul, yeh analysis hai GBP/JPY currency pair ki jo recent price movements ko describe karti hai. Ismein notice kiya gaya hai ke British pound ki keemat Japanese yen ke muqablay mein gir gai thi, lekin phir European trading session mein izafa hua. Isse yeh zahir hota hai ke price levels, jaise ke 185.27 aur 187.23, ke darmiyan fluctuation ho sakta hai. Yeh fluctuation kam az kam do martaba ho sakta hai jab tak keemat ek naye raaste ki taraf na badle. Is samay, yeh currency pair ki movement ke liye crucial levels hain aur yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh levels ko test karne ke baad hi ek naya rukh set hoga.




Zahir hai ke GBP/JPY currency pair ke dauran haalat mein tabdeeli aanay ka imkaan hai. Price levels 185.27 aur 187.23 ke darmiyan chhotay aur bara fluctuations ki sambhavna hai. Is cycle ko do martaba se zyada tak chalnay ka imkaan hai pehle ke price ek naye rukh taye kare. Yeh abhi short-term ke liye hai aur longer-term direction ke liye aur data aur analysis ka intezar karna hoga.

Main haftay ki chart par pound yen pair ko dekh raha hoon. Jab pair pichle high levels ke qareeb tha, toh mujhe laga ke pair ab reverse ho ga aur support 148.887 ki taraf jaega. Yehi wajah thi ke main yen ki taqat barhne aur pound ki bhi girne ka intezaar kar raha tha. Lekin jab pair phir se previous highs ke baad chala gaya, toh maine samjha ke iski growth jari rahegi. Yen ki taqat barhne ki wajah se, maine yeh expect kiya ke pair ab resistance 185.705 tak jaega, shayad bina kisi correction ke. Pair ne 183.399 ke levels tak pohancha, uske baad ek achhi correction shuru hui jo pure growth period ke liye tha, phir pair ne 185.705 ke resistance tak pohancha, phir bhi bechne walay ne ziada volume ikattha kiya, isse mujhe laga ke pair 170.820 ke levels tak correct ho sakta hai. Aur phir 180.833 ke qareeb bhi, bechne walay ne ziada volume ikattha kiya, lekin aisa nahi hua, saaf hai ke mahine ki chart par kharidne walay volume ikattha kar rahe hain, peechle highs ko update kiya gaya hai. Main samajhta hoon ke pound ab upar jaega. Mujhe nahi lagta ke yen ki taqat barhegi, isliye mujhe lagta hai ke pair ab resistance 194.188 tak jayega.

Conclusion:

Main naye highs ki expectations rakhta hoon pound yen pair ke liye, khaas tor par jab dekha ja raha hai ke buyers ne mahine ki chart par purchases ki stocks ki hain. Yen ki kamzori ke saath, pair ko mazeed upar jaane ki sambhavna hai, lekin yeh zaroori hai ke market ki movements ko closely monitor kiya jaye.

Yeh theek tareeqay se note kiya gaya hai ke kisi ghair-hourly chart par dakhli ka acha mauqa hota hai. Hamesha koshish karni chahiye ke chuni gayi strategy ko sakhti se follow kiya jaaye. Mausam ke diye gaye algorithm ko sakhti se follow karne ki salahiyat hamesha aapko achay nateejay tak pohanchne ka moqa deti hai.

Assalam-o-Alaikum Azeez Forum Members aur Hamaray Forum ke Mehmaan!

Chalein hum aik pair par nazar dalte hain jo aam tor par sab se zyada technical cross pairs mein se ek consider kiya jata hai. Kabhi kabhi kuch traders ko yeh kafi sahih tareeqay se is khaas aalaat ki movement determine karne mein kamiyabi milti hai, jo aik mustaqil faida mand tareeqay se deposit ko barhaane ka mauqa deta hai.

Shuruat karte hain is pair ki weekly chart se. Tasweer batati hai ke yeh pair kai maheenon se ek ascending channel mein hai. Movement ka yeh main support line hai jo pehle se do dafa test ho chuka hai. Ab ek mouqa hai ke keemat phir se is line ki taraf ja sakay aur ek aur dafa test ho. Tarjuma 4-hour chart par neechay ki taraf ho sakta hai. Ab hum daily timeframe par chalte hain. Daily timeframe par humne ek zone banaya hai jis se Friday ko aik gap aaya tha. Yeh zone aik position mein dakhli ke liye behtareen istemal ho sakta hai. Friday ki high ke peeche aik stop rakhna chahiye. Yeh di gayi transaction option ko sirat e amal ke liye nahi lena chahiye. Hamesha zaroori hai ke kisi bhi salahiyat ko apni strategy ke mawaqablat mein wazan kiya jaaye.

Dainik time frame par dekha ja sakta hai ke jo Jumeraat ko bani ek din ki mombatti, uski lambi dum south ki taraf ishara kar rahi hai. Yeh ho sakta hai ke yeh ek taqatwar support level ko dikhaye jo 185.18 tak girne ke baad price ko aur neeche jaane se roka. Yeh ishaarat karta hai ke kharid-dar ke paas abhi bhi kaafi taqat hai ke woh is currency pair mein koi bhi significant neeche ki movement rok sake. Isliye, yeh mushkil hai ke bechne ka koi sahi strategy hai ya nahi. Main intezar karunga ke price 20-day moving average ke neeche girne se pehle hi bechne ka sochoon. Magar overall, mera nazariya hosla afzaai hai jab ke price apne uparward movement jaari rakhta hai. Pichle hafte maine is currency pair par ek kharid ki position khola tha, lekin jaldi hi chhote munafe ke saath market se bahar nikal gaya, ummeed karte hue ke resistance level jo 186.71 tha, woh market ke rukh ko badal dega. Lekin price ne is level ke upar trading jaari rakha aur phir 150 points aur badh gaya, phir neeche jaane laga.

In essence, yeh kah raha hai ke daily chart par dekhte hue, Jumeraat ko bani mombatti jo lambi dum ki taraf ishara kar rahi hai, woh ek strong support level ko indicate kar rahi hai jo price ko neeche jane se roka. Yeh dekh kar lagta hai ke kharid-dar ki taqat abhi bhi kaafi hai aur isliye selling karna abhi sahi strategy nahi lag raha. Usko 20-day moving average ke neeche jaane ka intezaar karna chahiye bechne se pehle. Lekin overall sentiment hosla afzaai ka hai jab ke price uparward movement mein hai. Pichle hafte kharid ki gayi position ne kuch chhote munafe ke saath hi market se bahar nikli thi, kyunki ummeed thi ke resistance level 186.71 rukh badal dega, lekin price ne is level ko paar karke aur bhi upar ki taraf trading kiya tha, phir neeche jaane laga.

Jumma ko GBP/JPY mein, bechne walay aik damaday say qeemat ko southern rukh ki taraf daakel diya, lekin daily range ka band ho janay se ek rollback hua aur aik bearish candle bana jo keh relatively bara southern shadow tha. Abhi tak main khud kuch dilchaspi ki cheez nahi dekh raha, aur agar bechne walay phir bhi qareebi support level tak pohanch saktay hain, jo 184.634 par waqea hai, toh iske qareeb hone wali soorat-e-haal ke do mansoobay honge. Pehla mansooba taaluq morne wali moom banane aur nojawan ki dobara shuruwat se hai. Agar yeh plan kaamyaab hota hai, toh main umeed karta hoon keh qeemat wapas resistance level, jo 188.285 par waqea hai, par aa jaye gi. Agar qeemat iss resistance level ko fix karti hai, toh main mazeed shumali harkat ka intizaar karunga, jo 195.883 par waqea hai. Is resistance level ke qareeb mein main trading setup ki shakal ka intizaar karunga, jo keh trading ki mazeed raah ka faisla karnay mein madadgar sabit hoga. Yaqeenan, main tasawwur karta hoon keh jab qeemat muntakhib door taraji ki taraf jaye gi, toh southern pullbacks shayad ban saktay hain, jo woh doodhne ka irada rakhtay hain keh qareebi support levels se bullish signals hasil kiye jayein. Qeemat ke nazdeeki support level 184.634 ke qareeb aa rahi hai toh qeemat ka aur ek intehai hai keh woh iss level ke nichay consolidate hogi aur mazeed janubi manzil ki taraf jaigi. Agar yeh mansooba kaamyaab hota hai, toh main umeed karta hoon keh qeemat support level, jo keh 182.724 par waqea hai, ki taraf jaigi. Iss support level ke nazdeeki main bullish signals ka intizaar karunga, jo keh mazeed price ki shumali harkat ka intizaar karnay ki umeed mein hain. Aam tor par, iss ki chhoti si tafseel ye hai keh main waqtan-farokht ke liye kuch dilchaspi nahi dekh raha, lekin agar qeemat qareebi support level par pohanchti hai, toh wahan bullish signals dhoondne ki koshish karunga, shumali trend ko dobara taraqqi dene ki umeed mein.

Aam tor par, mein yen currency pairs ki sale se bohot ehtiyat baratata hoon - mujhe khareedne se zyada bechna pasand hai. Corrective rollbacks, zaroor hoti hain - inke baghair guzara mushkil hai, lekin yeh itni baar nahi hoti.

Is week GBP/JPY par hum aisi hi kuch wapas leher dekh sakte hain. Inn pairs ki corrections tezi se hoti hain aur inhe pakadna mushkil hota hai; wapas leher ke baad khareedna bohot aasaan hota hai, jise maine phir se kiya.

Pound yen ne apne haftawar ki ATR ko upper limit se lower limit tak kaamyaab kiya, lekin agar hum exactly hourly time period dekhein to giravat itni tezi se aur impulse ki tarah aayi thi ke yeh aakhri impulse abhi tak upward wave mein absorb nahi hua hai. Isiliye mujhe iska tasdeeq nahi hai ke giravat waqai khatam ho gayi hai (nearest local maximum 187.03 ke level par hai aur sirf tab jab yeh break ho jaye aur hourly candle is level ke upar close ho, tab giravat ko khatam samjha ja sakta hai). Isiliye abhi main dekh raha hoon ke agla kya hota hai. Mein ek aur dilchasp point note karna chahunga chart par - aam taur par agar kisi movement ke beech mein hum candlestick ki shadow ko ek minar ki shakal mein dekhte hain, toh vahan volumes hote hain aur wahan se bohot kuch return hota hai, isliye aisi candles ko targets bana sakte hain.





Bilkul! Yen pairs ke sath normal hota hai ke jab bhi markets mein koi tezi ya giravat hoti hai, woh tezi se hoti hai. Lekin yeh dono movements kabhi-kabhi bohot strong hoti hain aur unki reversal bhi tezi se hoti hai. Mujhe yeh dekhna acha lagta hai aur jab bhi main yeh dekhta hoon, toh main wapas leher ka wait karta hoon taake main aasaani se khareed sakoon. Abhi recent movement mein, jab humne dekha, ki jo giravat aayi hai, woh itni strong aur impulsive thi ke abhi tak woh upward wave mein absorb nahi hui hai. Issi wajah se mujhe yeh confirmation nahi lag rahi hai ke giravat abhi khatam ho gayi hai (jis level pe 187.03 ka local maximum hai, aur jab woh break hoga aur hourly candle uss level ke upar close hoga, tabhi hum giravat ko khatam samajh sakte hain). Isliye abhi main dekh raha hoon ke agla step kya hoga. Aur ek cheez note karni chahiye - kabhi-kabhi jab humein candlestick ki shadow ko minar ki tarah dekhte hain toh wahan volumes hoti hain aur woh spire wapis jaati hai, toh aise candles targets ho sakte hain.

Main daily chart par pound yen pair ko dekh raha hoon. Pair ek ascend trend channel mein trade ho raha tha. Phir yeh aur bhi upar gaya, yaani tezi bohot zor daar thi, pair ne 183.235 ke resistance tak pohancha, iss resistance se support 160.051 ki mukhtalif muddaton mein significant correction hua. Phir pair ne 186.712 ke resistance tak pohancha, yeh monthly chart par strong resistance level tha, maine tab samjha ke pair ko ek zyada decent correction ka samna karna hoga. Lekin sirf pehle ke correctional lows tak hi correction hua aur phir se tezi se grow kiya gaya. Pehle ke highs ko update kiya gaya hai aur phir se wazeh hai ke buyer volume badha raha hai, toh maine samjha ke pair resistance 190.216 ki taraf jayega.




Pound yen pair ka daily chart dekhte hue, maine notice kiya hai ke yeh pair ek trend channel ke andar trade ho raha tha, jo ke upar ki taraf ja raha tha. Yeh trend channel ke bahar bhi badh gaya, jismein tezi kaafi zyada thi, aur phir yeh 183.235 ke resistance tak pohancha. Iss resistance level se pehle bhi jab yeh support 160.051 tak gaya tha, tab ek noticeable correction aaya tha.

Fir pair ne 186.712 ke resistance level tak pohancha, jo ke monthly chart par strong resistance level tha. Main samajh raha tha ke yeh pair ek substantial correction ke liye taiyar hai, lekin isne sirf pehle ke correctional lows tak hi correction kiya, phir se upar jaane laga. Isne pehle ke highs ko update kiya aur volume mein buyer kaafi active lag raha hai. Is se lagta hai ke pair 190.216 ke resistance level ki taraf ja sakta hai. Ye dekhne mein aata hai ke buyer market mein control mein hai aur bullish trend jaari hai.

Daily Timeframe Outlook:



Din ki timeframe mein hum dekh sakte hain ke Jumeraat ko bani candle ki lambi lambi dhaar samuh ki taraf ishara kar rahi hai. Yeh dekhaya sakta hai ke 185.18 tak girne ke baad bhi keemat girne se rokne wala support mojood hai. Is se yeh samajh aata hai ke kharidarein ab bhi keemat girne se rokne ke liye kafi taqatwar ho sakte hain. Isliye, yeh mushkil hai ke bechne ka koi munasib tariqa hai ya nahi. Main bechna sochnay se pehle keemat ko 20-day moving average ke neechay girne ka intezaar karunga. Lekin, jab keemat ooper badhti rahegi, toh meri khaas raaye wahi rahegi. Main ne pichle hafte is jode par long position kiya tha lekin profit le liya, kyun keh mujhe 186.71 par rukawat ka aitbaar tha jo keemat ka rukh badal sakta tha. Lekin, keemat is level se 150 pips ooper gayi aur phir gir gayi.

H4 Timeframe Outlook:



187.41 level ne bulls ke liye sakht rukawat ka kaam kiya aur woh is level ke ooper apne daur ko sthapit nahi kar paye. Is hafte hum ne jode mein iski sudharati pullback dekha. Keemat char ghante ki nichimoku badal mein gir gayi, jisse ek aage badhne ka moka mila aur keemat phir se uttar ki taraf badh gayi. Chiklu Span keemat chart ke ooper hai, Stochastic oscillator uttar ki taraf muda aur Trend Filter oscillator hari hai, jo ke bazaar mein bullish sentiment dikhata hai. Agle ney wuzo mein bhi aage ki barhty rehne ki khaas mumkinat hain. Meri screenshot mein dikhaya gaya hai ke agar keemat Gann line ke ooper bahar nikal kar mel kare, toh ek naye khareedari ko gaur kiya ja sakta hai. Yahan, nazdeek ka maqsad 190.44 par resistance hai. Jab keemat Kihun-sen ke khatarnak line ke ooper badhti hai, toh khareedari karna acha hai. Agar keemat is level tak laut ayi toh khareedari ka asar kam ho jayega. As an alternative, main cloud mein fix karne ka bhi soch raha hoon.