USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USDJPY ki technical analysis 13 March 2025 ke liye kuch is tarah hai. Forex analysis mein, mujhe lagta hai ke USDJPY ka jo jo jo price position hai, woh ab bhi entry point banne ke laayak hai.

Chaliye, ab hum USDJPY ke 1 Hour Time Frame ka chart dekhte hain aur phir analysis karte hain. Price Action analysis ke zariye, market trend mein yeh nazar aata hai ke USDJPY ab bhi bearish ya downtrend mein hai, lekin humein trend reversal ki bhi anticipation karni chahiye agar price resistance area ko upar se break karti hai aur price consolidation hoti hai.

Candle history ko dekhte hue, hum sell entry opportunities talash kar sakte hain kyunki long term ab bhi downtrend par hai, lekin zyada objective hone ke liye, main buy aur sell entries ke liye analysis pesh karunga.

Chart dekhne par, seller pressure (lambi red candle ki length) dheere dheere price ko neeche le ja rahi hai, bina buyer pressure (lambi green candle ki length) ko counter kiye hue, aur yeh lower high banata hai. Yeh is baat ka ishara hai ke sellers abhi bhi kuch price levels ki formation mein dominate kar rahe hain. Lekin, USDJPY pair mein buy opportunities talash karna ab bhi mumkin hai.

Main resistance area ko do lines ke zariye price ke upar define karta hoon (148.85 – 148.51), jabke support area ko do lines ke zariye neeche define kar sakte hain (147.52 – 147.16).

Meri entry setup options niche diye gaye hain, aap inhe apne trading style ke mutabiq istemal kar sakte hain.

Mera entry setup ek breakout opportunity hai. Agar 1-hour candle close price upper limit of resistance area (148.85) ko break karta hai, to phir best entry buy position talash karne ke liye tayaar ho jayein. Agar 1-hour candle close price lower limit of support area (147.16) ko break karta hai, to best entry sell position talash karne ke liye tayaar ho jayein. Cut loss tab karein jab 1-hour candle close price resistance area ke lower limit se neeche (148.51 se kam) ho buy entry ke liye, aur support area ke upper limit se upar (147.52 se zyada) ho sell entry ke liye. Aur minimum risk ratio 1:1 ka istemal karein.

Sell position ke liye pullback setup: Pullback area resistance area ka istemal karega, agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area mein hai, to aap sell position le sakte hain aur cut loss tab karein jab 1-hour candle close price pullback area ke upper limit se upar (148.85 se zyada) ho. Minimum risk ratio 1:1 ka istemal karein aapke trading method ke mutabiq.

Buy position ke liye pullback setup: Pullback area support area ka istemal karega, agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area mein hai, to aap buy position le sakte hain aur cut loss tab karein jab 1-hour candle close price pullback area ke lower limit se neeche (147.16 se kam) ho. Minimum risk ratio 1:1 ka istemal karein aapke trading method ke mutabiq.

Hamesha har entry ke liye achi money management ka istemal karein taake trading continuity healthy rahe, aur fake breakout candles se hamesha alert rahein. Umeed hai ke yeh article aapke liye market analysis mein madadgar sabit hoga.

USDJPY ka technical analysis karte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke USDJPY ka jo pair hai, woh ab aise price position mein aa gaya hai jo entry point ke liye ab bhi maqbool hai. Agar hum 1 ghante ke time frame ka chart dekhein, toh humein kuch insights milte hain jo humein market ke halat ko samajhne mein madad karte hain.

Price action analysis ke zariye dekhte hain. Market ka jo trend hai, woh abhi tak bearish yaani downtrend mein hai, lekin humein yeh bhi dekhna hoga ke agar price kisi resistance area ko todta hai toh trend reversal ka bhi khayal rakhna zaroori hai. Candle history ki taraf dekhein, toh humein sell entry ke mauqe milte hain kyunki long term trend abhi bhi downtrend mein hai. Lekin mein aapko buy aur sell dono ke entry options dikhana chahta hoon.

Agar hum chart ko dekhein, toh seller pressure ko samajhna asaan hai, kyunki lambi red candles price ko dheere dheere neeche le ja rahi hain, jabke buyers ki taraf se green candles ka pressure is kadar nahi hai. Yeh lower high formation dikhata hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke sellers abhi bhi price levels ko dominate kar rahe hain. Lekin phir bhi, humein USDJPY pair mein buy opportunities dhoondhne ki koshish karni chahiye.

Image mein, maine resistance area ko do lines ke zariye dikhaya hai jo price ke upar hain (148.85 se 148.51 tak), aur support area ko bhi do lines ke zariye dikhaya hai jo price ke neeche hain (147.52 se 147.16 tak). Toh meri entry setup options yeh hain, aur aap inhein apne trading style ke mutabiq istemal kar sakte hain.

Mera entry setup breakout opportunity par mabni hai. Agar 1 ghante ki candle ka close price resistance area ke upper limit (148.85) ko todta hai, toh buy position lene ke liye tayaar ho jayein. Agar 1 ghante ki candle ka close price support area ke lower limit (147.16) ko todta hai, toh sell position lene ke liye tayaar ho jayein.

Cut loss ka idea yeh hai ke agar 1 ghante ki candle ka close price resistance area ke lower limit se neeche (148.51 se kam) ho jata hai toh buy entry ke liye cut loss karna hoga. Aur agar sell entry hai toh cut loss us waqt karna hoga jab price support area ke upper limit se upar (147.52 se zyada) close hota hai. Minimum risk ratio 1:1 rakhein.

Sell position ke liye pullback setup ka istamal karte hue, agar 1 ghante ki candle pullback area mein hoti hai, toh aap sell position le sakte hain. Lekin cut loss us waqt karna hoga jab price pullback area ke upper limit se upar (148.85 se zyada) close hota hai. Yahan bhi minimum risk ratio 1:1 hona chahiye jo aapki trading method ke mutabiq ho.

Buy position ke liye pullback setup ki baat karein, toh agar 1 ghante ki candle support area mein hoti hai, toh aap buy position le sakte hain. Cut loss tab karna hoga jab price pullback area ke lower limit se neeche (147.16 se kam) close hota hai. Ismein bhi minimum risk ratio 1:1 hona chahiye.

Trading mein hamesha achi money management ka khayal rakhein taake aapka trading ka amal behtar rahe aur fake breakout candles se bhi hamesha alert rahein. Umeed hai ke yeh analysis aapke liye market ko samajhne ka ek acha reference ban sakega.

Aaj kal ke price action se yeh ehsaas hota hai ke pair ne recent dino mein resistance levels ko test kiya hai, magar woh unhe break nahin kar saka. Is se yeh signal milta hai ke selling pressure abhi zinda hai aur market mein further decline ka scope ho sakta hai. Sab se pehle, jab hum moving averages ko dekhte hain, to short-term averages jaise MA5 aur MA10 thoda bullish signal de sakte hain, lekin medium aur long-term moving averages (jaise MA20, MA50, MA100, aur MA200) ne clear sell signals generate kiye hue hain. Yeh indicate karta hai ke jab hum broader timeframe par dekhain, to downward momentum dominate kar raha hai. Traders aksar in moving averages ko dynamic support aur resistance ke taur par use karte hain, aur agar price in averages ke neeche rehta hai to bearish sentiment confirm hota hai.

Technical indicators ki baat karein, to RSI (Relative Strength Index) ki value aaj kal 40-45 ke darmiyan nazar aati hai, jo ke oversold zone ke qareeb nahin hai, magar neutral se thoda niche ka signal deta hai. Iske ilawa, MACD indicator bhi negative zone mein hai, jo short term momentum ko reflect karta hai aur yeh suggest karta hai ke bearish momentum abhi sustain ho raha hai. ADX ki high value (for example 45 ke aas paas) se yeh pata chalta hai ke market mein ek strong trend chal raha hai, lekin direction ke hawalay se yeh indicator sirf trend ki intensity batata hai. Iss case mein, jab price consistently lower highs bana raha hai, to overall trend bearish hi rehne ka imkaan hai.



Chart par dekhne par hamein ek descending channel nazar aata hai. Is channel ke andar price ne consistently resistance aur support ke darmiyan oscillate kiya hai. Agar price is consolidation phase se neeche girta hai, to agla major support level around 146.32 per nazar aata hai. Iss level ke niche sustained trading se market ko further downward move karnay ka signal mil sakta hai, jahan agla technical support area 139.57 per aa sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar price temporarily upar jaata hai, to resistance levels 148.65 se le kar 150.92 tak ki range mein dekhay ja sakte hain. Lekin abhi tak yeh levels breach nahin ho paye, jis se yeh sabit hota hai ke market mein buyers ki taqat limited hai.

Ek aur aham point yeh hai ke market volatility, jise ATR (Average True Range) ke zariye measure kiya jata hai, thodi zyada reh rahi hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke price swings bade ho sakte hain, aur agar ek direction mein break aata hai to uske sath sath rapid moves dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Aksar volatile market conditions mein, short-term corrections aur reversals bhi dekhne ko milte hain, lekin agar key support ya resistance break hotay hain to dominant trend ka continuation mumkin hota hai.

Fundamental factors bhi USD/JPY ke analysis mein apna kirdar ada karte hain. US aur Japan ke economic indicators, interest rate differentials aur central bank policies ka asar pair par padta hai. Agar Federal Reserve apni policy ko tighten karta hai aur US dollar ko support milta hai, to USD ke muqablay mein Japanese yen kamzor ho sakta hai. Lekin, Bank of Japan ki monetary policy aur unke stimulus measures bhi market dynamics ko influence karte hain. Iss liye, jab hum technical analysis ko fundamental backdrop ke sath combine karte hain, to overall forecast yeh suggest karta hai ke agar bearish sentiment barqarar raha, to short term decline ka imkaan zyada hai.

Ek aur element jo traders ko consider karna chahiye woh hai pivot points. Daily pivot points ke hisaab se, agar price ne pivot level (for example 147.48) ko break kar diya to, support aur resistance ka structure badal sakta hai. Agar support levels ko tod diya jaye to selling pressure aur bhi barh sakta hai, lekin agar resistance break hota hai to temporary recovery dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin abhi tak, market ne resistance levels ke saamne struggle kiya hai, jo ke bearish outlook ko mazboot banata hai. Is analysis ko dekhte hue, hum keh sakte hain ke short term forecast mein USD/JPY pair mein continued bearish trend dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Agar price 146.32 ke support level ko maintain nahin kar pata aur uske niche gir jata hai, to hamein agla leg 139.57 tak ja sakta hai. Lekin, agar price briefly recover kar ke 148.65 ya 150.92 ke levels ko cross karta hai, to us se buyers ko temporary entry ka mauqa mil sakta hai, magar yeh recovery sustainable nahin lagti jab tak long term technical indicators ne bullish reversal confirm nahin kiya hota.

Is overall scenario se yeh samajh aata hai ke USD/JPY pair abhi ek critical juncture par hai. Technical structure aur indicators dono hi is baat ki taraf ishara karte hain ke market mein abhi zyada optimism nahin hai. Agar key support levels ko maintain karna mushkil ho gaya to, sellers ke paas zyada strength hogi aur pair ko further neeche push karna asaan ho jayega. Lekin, market mein har waqt koi na koi reversal ke chances hote hain, aur agar kuch positive fundamental news ya US economic data mein behtari nazar aayi, to temporary recovery ka signal mil sakta hai.