USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY pair is waqt downward pressure ka samna kar raha hai, aur mujhe koi aisi wajah nazar nahi aati jo isay north ki taraf le jaye. Maine pehle hi apna point share kiya hai ke Bank of Japan March mein 0.5 se 1 basis point tak rate barha sakta hai, jo is pair ko aur neeche le jane ka sabab ban sakta hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke 147.11 ka level bohot critical hai, aur agar price is level se neeche girta hai, toh mazeed girawat ki umeed hai. Agar price 147.11 ke upar break karta hai, toh agla target 147.75 ho sakta hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke current dynamics ke madde nazar ye kam mumkin hai. Mere khayal mein yeh pair 145.82 ke level tak girne ke zyada chances rakhta hai. Main ye baat tasleem karta hoon ke fundamentally US dollar mein mazbooti ka potential hai, lekin abhi ke liye USD/JPY pair ki demand kaafi kam hai. Agar price neeche ki taraf move karta hai, toh mujhe lagta hai ke sellers’ trend ka aaghaz ho sakta hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke agar girawat kuch din tak chalti rahi, toh main support level 145.18 ke kareeb hoga. Aaj ka din economic reports ke hawale se kaafi quiet hai, lekin geopolitical factors hamesha unexpected movements la sakte hain.
Main overall trend ko dekhte hue yeh samajhta hoon ke dollar mazboot hoga, lekin USD/JPY pair ke north mein move karne ki ability par shak hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke yeh pair upward momentum hasil karne mein kaamyaab nahi hoga, aur meri prediction hai ke price neeche jayega. BOJ ke expected actions aur market conditions ko madde nazar rakhein, toh mujhe lagta hai yeh pair pressure mein rahega.
Mera trading plan hai ke main USD/JPY ko 147.35 par sell karoon aur mera initial target 146.53 hoga. Maine yeh strategy Ichimoku indicator ke signals par banai hai, jo trends aur entry points ko samajhne mein madad karta hai. Hourly chart dekhne par mujhe lagta hai ke Tenkan Sen line, Kijun Sen line ke neeche hai, jo mujhe yeh batata hai ke downtrend chal raha hai. Yeh mere bearish outlook ko confirm karta hai.
Lekin 15-minute chart par mujhe conflicting signal mil raha hai, jahan Tenkan Sen line Kijun Sen line ke upar hai. Yeh mujhe cautious banata hai, kyun ke short-term aur broader trend align nahi ho rahe. Is liye, main 15-minute chart par reverse signal ka intezar karunga, jahan Tenkan Sen line neeche move kare. Yeh signal milte hi, short position lena zyada safe hoga.
Main flexible rahunga aur agar hourly chart par koi shift hoti hai, toh apni strategy ko reconsider karunga. Filhal, patience aur analysis ke sath sahi setup ka intezar kar raha hoon, takay main dominant trend ke saath aligned trading karoon aur risks minimize karoon.

USD/JPY ne H1 time frame par bullish divergence create ki hai jo price ke reversal ka signal de sakti hai meri analysis ke mutabiq price ne niche ja kar aik naya low banaya hai lekin RSI indicator ne uske mukable kam low banaya hai jo divergence ko confirm karta hai ye indicate karta hai ke selling pressure kam ho raha hai aur buyers market main enter kar sakte hain chart par dekha jaye toh price ne bullish divergence ke baad 2 se 3 bullish candles bana di hain jo short term buying pressure ko show karti hain maine apne chart par RSI indicator bhi laga rakha hai jisme divergence wali trendline clearly nazar aa rahi hai aur RSI bhi is time 50 level ke paas hai jo ek crucial point hai agar RSI 50 ke upar strong close deta hai toh bullish momentum aur ziada strong ho sakta hai aur price upar ja sakti hai magar agar RSI wapis 50 ke neeche aati hai toh phir price dubara bearish pressure mein aa sakti hai doosri taraf H1 time frame par 50 EMA bhi aik important role play karegi agar price EMA ke upar sustain karti hai toh buying ka setup aur ziada strong ho sakta hai magar agar price EMA se reject hoti hai toh phir consolidation ya downward movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai abhi tak ka price action ye suggest kar raha hai ke buyers active ho rahe hain aur short term buying opportunity ban sakti hai lekin confirmation ke liye RSI ka 50 se upar nikalna zaroori hai aur price ka 50 EMA ke upar sustain karna bhi important hoga agar price bullish divergence ke baad higher high banane lagti hai toh next resistance level test ho sakta hai lekin agar price rejection leti hai toh phir wapas se sideways ya bearish move ho sakti hai overall market ka trend dekhte hue short term buying ka plan kia ja sakta hai magar proper confirmation aur risk management ke saath trade lena zaroori hoga jese hi price RSI aur EMA se related koi strong signal deti hai uske baad hi next move decide karna behtar hoga.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! Kal, US dollar/Japanese yen ke jode ne nuqsanat badhaye. Halankeh girawat numaya nahin thi, lekin jodi 147.36 ki support satah ko todne aur us se niche fix hone me kamyab rahi. Iske natije me ek aur sell signal mila, jis ne farokht karne walon ko aaj 146.54 ki oburi satah tak pahunchne ki ijazat di. Yah maneuver abhi mukammal nahin hui hai. Filhal, dollar/yen ki jodi me halki tezi ki islah ho rahi hai, jiske bad bears market par dobara control hasil kar lenge aur qimat ko 145.91 ki support satah ki taraf le jayenge. Ek aur scenario par gaur karna hai jahan kharidar control hasil karte hain, jodi ko ooper ki taraf mor dete hain. Agar qimat 147.36 ki satah se ooper mustahkam hoti ai to, ek kharid signal paida hoga, jis me dollar/yen ki jodi 148.59 ki muzahmati satah ki shakal me agle hadaf ki taraf badh rahi hai.

Japanese yen ne Tuesday ko U.S. dollar ke muqable mein halka sa wapas aana dekha jab ke ye October ke baad apne sabse unche level par pahucha tha Lekin Bank of Japan ke hawkish stance ki umeed ki wajah se yen ki girawat zyada nahi hui. Japan mein mehngai ke dabao ke chalte BoJ ke taraf se mazeed interest rate badhne ki umeed yen ko mazbooti de rahi hai. Yeh confidence investors ke darmiyan Japanese government bonds aur doosre bade mumalik ke bonds ke darmiyan farq ko kam kar raha hai, jo ke Japan ke GDP data ki downward revision ke manfi asar ko halka kar raha hai. Is buniyad par umeed hai ke yen qareebi waqt mein mazboot rahega.

Saath hi, global equity markets ki kamzori aur risk aversion ka mahaul bhi yen ke potential losses ko rokenge Safe-haven currency hone ki wajah se, yen aam tor par unwaqton mein faida uthata hai jab markets mein uncertainty ya risk barh jati hai. Doosri taraf, U.S. dollar multi-month lows ke qareeb raha, kyun ke ye tasur barhta ja raha hai ke U.S. economic growth ka slowdown, jo trade tariffs ke zariye aur zyada hua hai, Federal Reserve ko interest rates cut karne par majboor kar sakta hai. Yeh soch USD/JPY pair ke current level, jo mid-146.00 range ke qareeb hai, se zyada upar jane ko rokti hai, jab tak is hafte ka inflation data nahi aata aur traders ke liye koi nayi direction nahi milti.

Technical Analysis

Daily RSI ab oversold territory se bahar aane ki taraf hai, jo ye dikhata hai ke momentum badal sakta hai. Yeh bearish traders ke liye signal hai ke wo ehtiyat karein. Behtar hoga ke koi nayi selling karne se pehle price ka consolidation ya halki si recovery ka intezaar karein. Agar USD/JPY pair 147.25-147.30 ke resistance ko todne ki koshish kare, to naye selling pressure ka samna ho sakta hai. Psychological 148.00 level ek mazboot barrier hai, aur uske upar 148.60-148.70 ke horizontal resistance ke qareeb naye challenges aa sakte hain.

Agar price 146.55-146.50 ke support levels ke neeche girti hai, to 146.00 tak ka raasta khul sakta hai. Aur agar girawat mazeed barhti hai, to medium-term support 145.25 tak ja sakti hai, jo aakhir me psychological level 145.00 ko target karegi. Yeh sab factors, jaise ke BoJ ki policy aur economic data, mil kar USD/JPY ki movement ko shape karte rahenge.