USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Market Fundamentals aur Technical Analysis ka Jaiza:

Aam tor par, jab bhi kisi mulk ki ma'ashi halat ka jaiza liya jata hai, to sab se pehle log "Non-Farm Payroll" (NFP) report par nazar rakhte hain. Yeh report har maheenay US mein naye jobs ki ta'daad ko darust karti hai. Aane wale NFP report ki baat karein to is baar 200,000 naye jobs ke izafa ki umeed hai, jo ke pichle mahine ke sirf 12,000 ke izafe se kaafi behtar hai. Lekin, hamein yeh dekhna hoga ke pichli maheenay ki payroll data par aane wali toofan (hurricanes) ka asar tha, jo ke mukhtalif industries mein employment figures ko distort kar sakta hai.

Iske alawa, economists yeh bhi ummeed kar rahe hain ke unemployment rate 4.1% se barh kar 4.2% ho jayegi. Yeh 1% ka izafa ma'ashi halat ko darust karta hai, lekin yeh bhi aik khabar hai ke agar wage growth barhti hai to is se consumer spending ko farogh milega, jo ke inflation ko barhawa de sakta hai. Agar inflation ki surat-e-haal musalsal behtar hoti rahe to Federal Reserve ko interest rates ko aggressively cut karne mein hichkichahat mehsoos ho sakti hai, jo ke dollar ki taqat ko barhawa de sakta hai.

Is waqt, Japanese Yen (JPY) bhi kuch kamzoor hota nazar aa raha hai. Iski wajah Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke board member Toyoaki Nakamura ke dovish remarks hain. Unhon ne wage growth ki sustainable hone par shak kiya hai aur yeh bhi kaha hai ke kya inflation fiscal 2025 ke baad bhi 2% se upar rahegi ya nahi. Yeh sab baatein JPY ke liye negative hain.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY:

Ab agar hum USD/JPY ki technical analysis ki baat karein, to yeh pair 154.80 ke aas paas mazboot resistance ka samna kar raha hai. Yeh level 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level aur 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ka confluence hai. Halankeh daily chart par bearish momentum abhi bhi barqarar hai, lekin selling pressure dheere dheere kam hota nazar aa raha hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi yeh darust karta hai ke momentum dheere ho raha hai.

Is pair ka overall bias abhi bhi rallies bechne ki taraf hai, jahan key resistance levels 154.00 aur 155.00 hain. Agar hum neeche ki taraf dekhein to 151.80 par mazboot support hai, iske baad 151.00 aur 150.00 ka level hai, jo ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement se bhi milta hai.

Yeh sab kuch milakar yeh darust karta hai ke USD/JPY ka trend abhi bhi bearish hai, magar short-term ke liye kuch rallies dekhne ko mil sakti hain. Agar market mein koi negative khabar aati hai, to is se JPY ko kuch faida ho sakta hai, lekin agar US ka ma'ashi data achha aata hai, to yeh USD ki taqat ko barha sakta hai.

Aakhir mein, yeh kehna galat nahi hoga ke investors ko NFP report ka intezar hai, kyunki yeh report sirf employment ki surat-e-haal ko nahi balke overall ma'ashi halat ka bhi pata deti hai. Agar jobs ka izafa hota hai aur wage growth bhi barhti hai, to is se inflation expectations barh sakti hain, jo ke Fed ki policy par asar daal sakti hai. Isliye, yeh sab factors investors ke liye kaafi ahmiyat rakhte hain.

USD/JPY Ka Tajziya: Mojooda Bazaar Ke Manzar-e-Qabul


USD/JPY currency pair ka tajziya karna na sirf dilchasp hai balki yeh traders ke liye behtareen fursat bhi faraham karta hai. Is maqale mein hum H4 chart ka jaiza lenge, jahan hum kuch aham patterns aur trends ko samjhenge jo traders ko behtar faislay karne mein madadgar sabit ho sakte hain.Late January se lekar early February tak, USD/JPY ne ek wazeh downtrend dekha, jahan prices kaafi neeche chali gayi. Is downtrend ke doran, market ne 151.31 ki level par mazboot support hasil kiya, jo ke ek aham psychological barrier bhi tha. Yeh level sirf neeche ki taraf chalne ko roknay mein madadgar nahi tha, balke iski wajah se market ne recovery ka bhi shuruat ki.151.31 ke support level se recovery ke baad, USD/JPY dheere dheere upar ki taraf barh gaya. Haal hi mein, isne 154.50 ke nazdeek ek ahem resistance zone ko test kiya. Yeh level 200-period moving average ke saath coincide karta hai, jo ke agle price increases ke liye ek potential barrier ban sakta hai. Agar 50-period moving average 200-period moving average ko cross karta hai, to yeh bullish crossover ko darust karta hai, jo traders ke liye upar ki taraf momentum ka ishara hai.Lekin, haal mein market ek tight range mein hai, jo buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan indecision ko darust karta hai. OsMA (Moving Average of Oscillator) indicator yeh darust karta hai ke bullish momentum kamzor ho raha hai. Jab OsMA histogram peak par hota hai aur phir shrink hona shuru hota hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara hai ke rally ki taqat kam ho rahi hai.Relative Strength Index (RSI) is waqt 58.80 par hai, jo ke neutral territory mein hai. Yeh is baat ka darust karta hai ke USD/JPY na to overbought hai aur na hi oversold, jo ke dono taraf movement ki sambhavnayein darust karta hai. Yeh technical setup yeh darust karta hai ke market ya to mazeed consolidate karegi ya phir pullback dekhegi.Bullish traders ke liye, agar 154.50 ke resistance level se upar ka break hota hai to yeh mazeed gains ka raasta khol sakta hai, jahan agla target 155.50 ho sakta hai. Iske muqabil, bearish traders yeh mauqa le sakte hain agar is resistance level par rejection hoti hai, jahan wo 153.00 ya us se neeche ke target ki taraf short positions le sakte hain.Iss waqt, USD/JPY ek pivotal point par hai, aur traders ko confirmation signals par tawajjo deni chahiye. Yeh zaroori hai ke moving average crossovers aur breakout/rejection candles ko monitor kiya jaye, kyunki yeh signals trading decisions mein kaafi madadgar sabit ho sakte hain. Mixed signals aur key technical levels ke nazdeek hone ki wajah se, ehtiyaat ka approach ikhtiyar karna behad zaroori hai.

Conclusion


Aakhir mein, USD/JPY currency pair ek pechida marahil se guzar raha hai jo ke recent downtrend, recovery attempts, aur maujooda indecision par mabni hai. Traders ko chahiye ke wo aham price levels aur confirmation signals par nazar rakhein taake wo is market landscape ko behtar samajh sakein. Technical indicators ka jaiza lena aur potential bullish aur bearish scenarios ko samajhna traders ko evolving market conditions mein behtar taur par position karne mein madad de sakta hai. Is liye, market ki halat ko samajhne ke liye tajziya aur ehtiyaat se kaam lena zaroori hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Japanese Yen k Mazeed Strong Hone Chances Hen

Japanese yen corona k baad se bohut ziada losses mein raha hai, lekin kuch weeks se inflation increase hone k waja se yen bhi strong hone laga hai, lekin abhi bhi yen ko US k trade war ka khatra hai. Ye trade war to Japan aur Us k darmeyan nahi hai, lekin iss ka asar zaror Japan pe hone laga hai. Japan ke ahem economic indicators aur BoJ rate hike ki speculation, USD/JPY ke trends ko drive karegi.
Bullish Yen Case: Agar data positive aata hai aur BoJ ke hawkish stance ka rujhan barhta hai, toh USD/JPY 150 se neeche gir sakta hai.
Bullish USD Case: Agar data weak hota hai aur BoJ rate hike ke chances girte hain, toh USD/JPY 155 tak barh sakta hai.

Key Points:

• USD/JPY 0.59% rebound kar gaya 4-week decline ke baad, Fed aur BoJ rate expectations shift hone se.
• Japan ka GDP, trade, inflation aur Services PMI data is hafte USD/JPY volatility ko drive kar sakta hai.
• US jobless claims aur Services PMI data BoJ ke hawkish stance ko counter kar sakta hai, jo USD/JPY trends ko affect karega.
• Pichlay hafte USD/JPY 151.170 tak gira aur 154.797 tak wapas chala gaya, jo BoJ aur Fed ke policy outlooks ke shifting sentiment ko reflect karta hai.

BoJ Rate Hike Bets: Producer Prices Ka Asar
Japan ke producer prices ne expectation reinforce ki hai ke BoJ 2025 ke pehle hissa mein dusra rate hike kar sakta hai. Wage growth aur household spending ke pehlay data ne demand-driven inflationary pressures ka signal diya tha.

Is hafte Japan ka GDP, trade, Services PMI aur inflation data traders ke liye crucial hoga. Yeh reports BoJ rate hike ki expectations par asar daal sakti hain.

Japan Ki Economy Focus Mein
Monday, 17 February ko Japan ke GDP numbers USD/JPY aur BoJ ke rate path par market sentiment ko influence karenge.

• Economists ka kehna hai ke Japan ki economy Q4 2024 mein 0.3% grow karegi, jo pichlay quarter ke 0.2% growth se behtar hai.
• Agar growth tezi se barhti hai, toh BoJ rate hike expectations strong ho sakti hain, jo Japanese Yen ki demand barha sakti hai.
• Magar agar GDP weak hota hai, toh BoJ action delay ho sakta hai, jo Yen par pressure daal sakta hai.

Private consumption bhi ek key factor hoga:

• Economists ka andaza hai ke private consumption 0.3% giray ga, jo pichlay quarter ke 0.7% rise se mukhtalif hai.
• Agar consumption ziada girta hai, toh inflationary pressures kam ho sakte hain, aur BoJ ka hawkish stance soft ho sakta hai.

Trade Data: US Tariff Risks Ke Darmiyan
Wednesday, 19 February ko Japan ka trade data investor interest ka markaz hoga, kyunki President Trump trade imbalances par focus kar rahe hain.

• Economists expect kar rahe hain ke Japan ki exports 7.9% year-on-year barhain gi, jo December ke 2.8% se ziada hai.
• Imports bhi isi trend ko follow karengi.
• Agar imports aur exports ziada barhte hain, toh yeh domestic aur overseas demand ka indication ho sakta hai, jo BoJ ka hawkish stance support karega.
• Magar agar trade data weak hota hai, toh BoJ rate hike expectations par asar par sakta hai.

Trade surplus bhi ek important factor hai:

• December 2024 mein Japan ka trade surplus ¥1,012 million tha.
• Agar yeh aur barhta hai, toh Trump ki taraf se scrutiny ka samna kar sakta hai, jo Japan ki trade policies aur BoJ stance ko affect kar sakta hai.

Japan Services PMI Aur Inflation: BoJ Ke Liye Crucial Indicators
Friday, 21 February ko Services PMI aur inflation data BoJ ki near-term policy ko dictate kar sakta hai.

• Economists expect kar rahe hain ke Japan ka Jibun Bank Services PMI January ke 53.0 se gir kar February mein 52.2 ho jaye ga.
• Agar services sector activity slow hoti hai aur prices soft hoti hain, toh BoJ rate hike bets gir sakti hain.
• Magar agar prices barhti hain, toh yeh BoJ ke hawkish stance ko support kar sakti hain.

Economists ka andaza hai ke Japan ki core inflation rate 3.1% tak barhay gi, jo December ke 3.0% se ziada hai.

• Agar inflation reading ziada hoti hai, toh yeh H1 2025 mein BoJ rate hike ki expectations ko mazid mazboot karegi.
• Magar agar inflation aur services sector ke prices girte hain, toh rate hike bets soft ho sakti hain, jo Yen par pressure daal sakta hai.

US Data Aur Fed Policy Implications
US mein Thursday, 20 February ko initial jobless claims labor market strength ka insight denge.

• Economists expect kar rahe hain ke jobless claims 213k se barh kar 216k tak ponch jaye gi.
• Agar jobless claims ziada hoti hain, toh yeh consumer spending slowdown ka signal de sakta hai, jo inflationary pressures kam kar sakta hai.
• Yeh H1 2025 ke liye Fed rate cut expectations ko support karega.
• Magar agar jobless claims girti hain, toh wage growth aur consumer spending strong reh sakti hai, jo Fed ko hawkish banayegi.

S&P Global Services PMI bhi USD/JPY pair par asar dal sakta hai:

• Economists ka kehna hai ke Services PMI January ke 52.9 se barh kar February mein 53.2 ho sakta hai.
• Kyunki US GDP ka 80% hissa services sector hai, strong PMI data Fed rate cut expectations ko delay kar sakta hai.
• Agar labor market tight hoti hai aur input prices (wages) barhte hain, toh Fed ka dovish stance weak ho sakta hai.

Iske ilawa, FOMC Meeting Minutes (19 February) aur FOMC members ke statements bhi policy clues provide kar sakte hain.

• Agar Fed hawkish rehta hai, toh USD/JPY 155 tak barh sakta hai.
• Agar Fed dovish hota hai, toh USD/JPY 150 se neeche gir sakta hai.

USD/JPY Price Action
Pichlay hafte ke gains ke baad, USD/JPY 200-day EMA ke upar hai magar 50-day EMA ke neeche hai. EMAs ka signal near-term bearish magar long-term bullish hai.

• Agar USD/JPY 153 tak wapas jata hai, toh 50-day EMA tak move ka support milega.
• Agar 50-day EMA tod diya jata hai, toh bulls 155 aur 156.994 resistance levels tak target kar sakte hain.
• Agar USD/JPY 200-day EMA se neeche girta hai, toh February ka low 150.925 test ho sakta hai.
• Agar 150.925 break hota hai, toh bears 149.358 support level ka aim kar sakte hain.

14-day RSI 41.20 par hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke USD/JPY 149.358 tak gir sakta hai before oversold territory (RSI below 30) mein enter karta hai.

USD/JPY ka hourly chart dekhte hue humein ek wazeh downward trend nazar aata hai Price is waqt 152.279 par close hui hai jo ek aham support level lagta hai. Yeh girawat is baat ka signal de rahi hai ke market bearish zone mein hai, aur yeh trend filhal barqarar hai Agar RSI (14) indicator ka jaiza lein, toh iska current reading 39.21 hai. Yeh level oversold zone ke kareeb hai, lekin abhi tak RSI 30 ke threshold se ooper hai, jo yeh batata hai ke market abhi puri tarah oversold nahi hui. Agar RSI 30 ke neeche girta hai, toh yeh selling pressure ke barhne ka ishara hoga. Dusri taraf, agar RSI upar ki taraf move kare aur 50 ke aas paas aaye, toh ek bullish recovery ka chance ho sakta hai.
Chart ka pattern dikhata hai ke price consistently lower highs aur lower lows bana rahi hai, jo bearish momentum ko mazboot karte hain. Aam tor par aise situations mein, agar price apne current support level ke neeche gir jaye, toh agla target 151.245 ka support level ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price consolidate karte hue sideways move kare, toh yeh ek temporary pause ho sakta hai bearish trend mein.
Is market ki situation mein, risk management sabse zaruri hai. Agar aap short kar rahe hain, toh tight stop loss lagana zaruri hai, taake unexpected reversal ka samna na karna pade. Dusri taraf, agar aap bullish recovery ka wait kar rahe hain, toh RSI aur price ke reversal ka signal dekhna hoga.
Trading mein patience aur discipline bohot zaruri hai. Har move ke liye proper analysis karein aur apni strategy ko flexible rakhein. Yeh waqt market ko dekhne aur samajhne ka hai, taake future decisions behtareen tareeqe se liye ja sakein. Forex trading mein hamesha realistic goals rakhein aur apni capital ko protect karna pehla objective hona chahiye.

USD USD/JPY Weekly Analysis: Breakout Potential Ahead

Jaiza:


USD/JPY currency pair iss hafta aik breakout ka ishara day rahi hai. Japanese yen ne kaafi arsay se aik horizontal zone mein trade kiya hai. Pehle yeh pair 160 ke upar gaya tha, lekin ab neeche gir raha hai. Do maheenay pehle yeh 142 tak gir gaya tha, uske baad bullish consolidation phase mein daakhil ho gaya. Yen ki kamzori khas tor par Euro aur British Pound ke muqable mein zyada hai, khas tor par BoJ ke recent rate hike ke baad. Filhal, USD/JPY pair ne 155.00 ka critical support level defend kar lia hai.

Japanese Yen Ka Mahol

Kayi aham factors Japanese yen ki performance ko asar andaz kar rahe hain. USD/JPY ne 155.00 level ko mazbooti se pakar rakha hai, chahe BoJ ne Thursday ko rate hike bhi ki. Doosri currency pairs, jaise ke EUR/JPY aur GBP/JPY, strong bullish trends dikha rahe hain, jahan EUR/JPY 160.00 aur GBP/JPY 190.00 tak ja chuka hai. Agle hafte Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) data bohot aham hoga, jab ke Canada, U.S., aur Europe ke rate decisions bhi anay walay hain. Tuesday ko aik webinar hoga jismein in teeno currency pairs ka tafseelat se jaiza liya jayega.

USD/JPY Ka Haftewar Jaiza

Iss hafta USD/JPY pair range-bound trading kar raha hai, jab ke BoJ ne aik aur rate hike implement ki. Guzishta saal ke sell-off ke baad jo September mein bottom touch kiya tha, carry unwinding ka khatra ab bhi maujood hai. Is ke bawajood, USD/JPY ab bhi elevated levels par hai.

Iss hafta psychological level 155.00 do dafa support provide kar chuka hai. Thursday raat ke rate hike ke baad, yeh support zone 155.00-155.38 chay ghanton tak mazboot raha, jis se bulls ko price push karne ka moka mila. Yeh market behavior un traders ke liye unexpected tha jo yeh soch rahe thay ke rate hike yen ko mazboot karega.

USD/JPY Ka Rozana Jaiza

Daily chart ka ghoor o fikar yeh dikhata hai ke price movement iss hafta uncertain rahi, bawajood iske ke BoJ rate hike announce ho chuki hai. Price action mean-reverting characteristics show kar raha hai, jahan support 155.00 par aur resistance 156.67 par hai, jo ke pichle saal ke sell-off ka 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level hai.

Yeh suggest karta hai ke market negative news ko ignore kar rahi hai aur strength dikhane ke liye higher lows create kar rahi hai. Agle hafte ka tone Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision aur Japan ke CPI data par mabni hoga.















USD/JPY pair ke traders ke liye key levels pe nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Resistance levels jo dekhne chahiye woh hain:
157.17 (Fibonacci level)
158.88 (Previous swing high)
160.00 (Psychological barrier)

Support levels jo important hain:
153.41 (61.8% retracement level)
150.00 - 151.95 (Major decision point)

Agar bullish sentiment barqarar rehti hai aur price support levels ke upar rehti hai, toh bulls ke liye optimism barqarar rahega. Magar traders ko ehtiyaat aur hoshiari se kaam lena chahiye kyunki ane wale economic indicators aur central bank decisions market dynamics ko badal sakte hain.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! Majmui taur par, scenario mandi wala bana hua hai. US dollar/Japanese yen joda aaj 152.30 ki support satah se niche aa gaya aur 150.98 ki agli support satah ki taraf girta raha. Aab tak, dollar/yen ki jodi sirf 151.50 ke nishan tak pahunch payi hai. Waise, aaj kuch aham khabrein aayin, jiska yen par asar pada aur woh musbat thin, jo jode ki musalsal kami ka bayas bani. Iske alawa, jode ki naqal o harkat se qaribi talluq rakhne wale descending channel par gaur karte hue, suratehal badal sakti hai kiyunkeh qimat ek sideways range me chalti rah sakti hai. Is scenario ko mustarad nahin kiya ja sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar qimat 150.98 ki support satah ko tod deti hai aur uske niche fix ho jati hai to, mazid mandi ke qadam ki tawaqqo ki ja sakti hai.

Market fundamentals aur technical analysis dono hi kisi bhi financial market mein trading decisions lene ke liye bohot ahem hote hain. Is waqt, hum USD/JPY currency pair ki baat kar rahe hain, jisme kuch aham factors hain jo iski movement par asar daal rahe hain.
Market Fundamentals


Sab se pehle, Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) ka data kaafi strong aaya hai, jo ke yeh dikhata hai ke Japan mein inflation pressure barh raha hai. Is ke sath hi, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish remarks ne bhi market mein speculation ko barhawa diya hai ke shayad interest rates mein phir se izafa ho sakta hai. Lekin, BoJ ke board member Toyoaki Nakamura ne kuch concerns bhi raise kiye hain. Unka kehna hai ke wage growth sustainable nahi hai aur inflation fiscal 2025 ke baad 2% target se neeche aa sakta hai. Is se yeh ehsaas hota hai ke Japan abhi bhi economic recovery mein hai, lekin uski expansion mein nahi.

Iske ilawa, geopolitical tensions bhi market ko affect kar rahi hain. Russia ke Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov ne kaha hai ke agar U.S. aur uske allies Russia ki security boundaries ko nahi samjhte, to Moscow apne military actions ko escalate kar sakta hai. Yeh tensions na sirf regional stability ko affect karte hain, balki global economic landscape par bhi asar daal sakte hain.

U.S. mein, President-elect Donald Trump ke proposed tariffs ne bhi investors ko chintit kar diya hai. Yeh tariffs naye trade conflicts ko janam de sakte hain, jo global economic growth ko affect kar sakte hain. St. Louis Federal Reserve ke President Alberto Musalem ne bhi yeh kaha hai ke Fed rate cuts ko pause karne par ghoor kar sakta hai, lekin yeh sab kuch economic conditions par depend karega. Is sab ka asar USD/JPY par bhi pad raha hai.
Technical Analysis


USD/JPY ki technical analysis ki baat karein to daily chart par oscillators abhi bhi negative territory mein hain, lekin oversold conditions tak nahi pohanch paaye hain. Yeh is baat ka ishara hai ke agar pair recover karta hai to yeh zyada limited hoga. Immediate resistance 151.20 level par expect ki ja rahi hai. Agar price 151.00 mark ko break nahi karti, jo ke 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke sath coincide karta hai, to yeh bearish sentiment ko majboot kar sakta hai.

Agar koi trader 151.00 ka mark nahi todta dekh raha hai, to usay bearish position lene ka sochna chahiye. Lekin agar price is threshold ko ek sustained move ke sath cross kar leti hai, to yeh bullish traders ke liye ek positive sign hoga. Iska matlab hoga ke recent corrective decline jo multi-month highs se aayi thi, wo ab khatam ho chuki hai aur momentum bullish traders ke haq mein shift ho raha hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ki baat karein to yeh ab nearly 40.00 par hai. Agar yeh is level se upar nahi jaata, to ek fresh bearish wave bhi aa sakti hai. Traders ko yeh dekhna hoga ke kya yeh RSI level upar ki taraf move kar pata hai ya nahi, kyunki iski movement se market ki next direction ka andaza lagana asan hoga.
Conclusion


Is waqt, USD/JPY par nazar rakhte hue, market fundamentals aur technical indicators dono ko samajhna zaroori hai. Tokyo CPI data aur BoJ ke hawkish remarks ke saath saath geopolitical tensions aur U.S. trade policies bhi is currency pair ki movement ko affect kar rahe hain. Technical analysis se hume yeh samajhne mein madad milti hai ke market kis direction mein ja sakta hai, lekin yeh sab kuch fundamentals par bhi depend karta hai. Isliye, traders ko in sab factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue trading decisions lene chahiye.

USDJPY currency pair ki D1 (daily) period chart ka tajziya karte hue, hum dekhtay hain keh is waqt iska wave structure ab bhi ek ascendant khasiyat rakhta hai. Lekin, MACD indicator ne lower sales zone mein qaim rehkar apne signal line ke neeche hi position banayi hui hai. January ke aakhri hisson mein, jab price ne ascending line ke neeche band karna shuru kiya, to isne ek rising wedge reversal figure banaya jo niche se bana tha. Is surat mein, selling ko pehli tarjeeh di gayi thi, aur waqai mein, February ke pehle trading dinon mein, ye expectations sahi sabit hui, jab price ne girawat ka silsila shuru kiya.

Lekin, aksar hota hai keh seedha movement develop nahi ho pata. February 7 ko price ne ruk gaya aur girawat ke baad ek correction ka silsila shuru hua. Ye correction seedha horizontal level 154.21 tak pohanch gaya, jo ke mahine ke shuru mein tor diya gaya tha. Lekin, is level ko torne mein ek choti si ghalti hui thi, jo ke asal mein breakout nahi tha. Jaisa ke umeed thi, is resistance level se fir se girawat shuru hui, aur rising wedge decline figure ka amal jari raha. Price ne 152.25 ke support level par ruk gaya. Ye level rozana period (D1) par nazar nahi aa raha, lekin agar hum chart ko chaar ghante ke period (H4) par switch karein, to ye wahan nazar aata hai.

Mujhe lagta hai keh price ek choti si upar ki taraf correction degi aur jald hi is mahine mein bane hue sab se nazdeek ke minimum ko update karegi. Hourly period par MACD indicator par bullish divergence is baat ki taraf ishara kar raha hai keh is waqt correction ki sambhavna hai aur H4 par support bhi wahan hai.

Is waqt, primary target jo expected decline ka hai wo 149.40 ke area tak pohanchna hai, jo ke ascending wedge ka average support hai. Is pair ke liye ye safar tay karna koi mushkil kaam nahi hai, aur ye targeted movement ke saath asani se ho sakta hai.

Agar hum is currency pair ki technical analysis ko samjhein, to humein ye samajhna hoga keh market ki halat kaisi hai. Jab bhi ek currency pair mein ascending wave structure hota hai, to iska matlab hota hai keh price mein upar ki taraf chalne ki sambhavnayein hain, lekin jab MACD indicator lower zone mein hota hai, to ye signal hai keh market mein bearish pressure bhi maujood hai.

Yeh analysis humein batata hai keh market ki trend reversal ki sambhavna hai, khas kar jab rising wedge jese patterns bante hain. Jab price ne 154.21 level ko torne ki koshish ki, lekin uspe tik nahi payi, to isne market ke bearish sentiment ko aur mazid majboot kiya.

Agar price 152.25 ke support level se gir jaati hai, to ye humare bullish divergence ko bhi confirm karega, jo keh market ke short-term correction ki taraf ishara karta hai.

Is waqt, traders ko chahiye keh wo in sab factors ko madde nazar rakhein aur apne trading decisions ko in signals ke mutabiq banayein. Jis tarah se market ka behavior hai, wo humein yeh batata hai keh is currency pair mein abhi bhi girawat ki sambhavna hai aur traders ko caution se kaam lena chahiye.

Iss analysis ke madde nazar, trading strategies tay karte waqt hamesha risk management ko yaad rakhna chahiye, kyunki market kabhi bhi unexpected moves kar sakta hai. Isliye, trading karte waqt market ki halat, indicators aur patterns ka ghor se tajziya karna farz hai, taake behtar faisle liye ja sakein.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Japanese Yen Wapis Strongness ki Taraf Rebounce Ho Raha Hai

Jahan pori dunya American trade war ki waja se uncertainty main hai aur jinn mumalik ka American Dollar par inhisar ziada hai, wo ziada loss mein chal rahe hen, wahi Japanese yen kuch weeks se strong ho raha hai, lekin agar ye bhi trade war ki zed mein ata hai yo same issue yen k sath bhi ho sakta hai. Japanese yen Monday ko dollar ke muqable me ek haftay ki bulandiyon tak pohonch gaya, aur teesri musalsal session me faida hasil kar raha hai, jo ke strong investor demand ka nateeja hai.

Taza data ke mutabiq, Japan ki chothi quarter GDP growth tez ho gayi, jo Bank of Japan ke policymakers par dabao barhane ka sabab bani, aur March me Japanese interest rate hike ke chances mazeed barh gaye.

Yen ki Current Price
USD/JPY pair aaj 0.45% gir kar 151.50 yen per dollar tak aa gaya, jo 10 February ke baad ka sab se kam level hai, jabke session-high 152.38 raha.

Jumay ke din yen dollar ke muqable me 0.35% barh gaya, jab US treasury yields neeche gir gayi.

Pichlay hafte yen 0.6% neeche gira, jo ke paanch hafton me iska pehla weekly loss tha, aur ye do mahine ki bulandiyon se thoda peeche hat gaya.

Japan Ki GDP
Official data ke mutabiq, Japan ki GDP growth fourth quarter 2024 me 0.7% rahi, jo ke umeedon se zyada thi (0.3% ka andaaza lagaya gaya tha), aur third quarter ki 0.3% growth se bhi kaafi behtar thi.

Japanese Interest Rates
Is data ke baad, Bank of Japan ke March meeting me 0.25% interest rate hike ke chances 75% se barh kar 80% ho gaye hain.

Ab traders March meeting se pehle Japan ki inflation, berozgaari aur ujraton (wages) se mutaliq mazeed data ka intezar kar rahe hain.

Interest Rate Gap
US aur Japan ka interest rate gap filhal 400 basis points hai, jo US ke haq me ja raha hai. Agar is gap me kami aati hai to yen mazid mazboot ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis
US dollar ek baar phir Japanese yen ke muqable me achi khasari girawat dekh raha hai, kyunki Japan inflation se nipatne ki koshish kar raha hai. Ab sawal ye hai ke kya market yen ki kharidari jari rakhegi. Mera khayal hai ke ye sirf dollar aur yen ke darmiyan ek naya price adjustment hai, koi bara trend reversal nahi.



Ye bhi mumkin hai ke bada tabadla ho, lekin filhal lagta hai ke traders 150 yen ke level ko ek ahem support barrier samajh rahe hain.

USD/JPY neeche gir raha hai kyunki traders Japan ki GDP growth ke behtar hone par tawajju de rahe hain. Agar USD/JPY support level 151.50 – 152.00 ke neeche settle ho jata hai, to agla target 149.00 – 149.50 ho sakta hai.

Jaanch parakh aur maali bazar ke asraat ke madde nazar, mujhe lagta hai ke Japanese Yen (JPY) ki qeemat ki qabil-e-taaruf izafa hone ki sambhavna hai. Yeh sawal hai ke is izafe ki had tak kya asar hoga. Aam tor par, agar hum hourly chart ki taraf dekhein, to 152.744 ka resistance level dekha ja sakta hai jo ke khaas tor par mazboot nahi lagta. Iska matlab yeh hai ke JPY is level ko kuch waqt mein test kar sakta hai.

Lekin, agar Yen ki qeemat neeche ki taraf jaati hai, to usay 151.868 ka weekly support level ka samna karna padega. Yeh level ek mazboot rukawat hai aur market ko ise todne ke liye kafi koshish karni padegi. Is waqt, Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30% se upar hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke currency oversold nahi hai aur isme upar ki taraf izafe ki kuch jagah hai.

In sab baaton ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke short term mein Yen ki qeemat mein kuch kami dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin yeh kami 151.868 ke support level ki wajah se khud ko kaafi had tak rok sakti hai. Agar market ko koi khaas nakaraatmak khabar ya dabao ka samna nahi karna padta, to Yen in levels ke aas paas sanrakshit ho sakta hai, aur phir se kisi faislay ki taraf barh sakta hai.

Aam tor par, jab hum market ke is haal ko dekhein, to humein yeh samajhna chahiye ke market ki taraf se koi bhi nakaraatmak khabar ya economic indicators bohot asar daal sakte hain. Jaise jaise waqt guzarta hai, investors aur traders ko in key levels par nazar rakhni chahiye. Agar Yen 152.744 ka resistance level todta hai, to yeh uski taqat ki nishani hogi aur iski qeemat mein mazeed izafa dekha ja sakta hai.

Iske ilaawa, agar hum technical analysis ki baat karein, to RSI ka indicator bhi bohot zaroori hai. RSI agar 70% se upar chala jaata hai, to yeh is baat ki nishani hoti hai ke market overbought ho gaya hai, lekin filhal yeh 30% se upar hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke abhi bhi upar ki taraf jaane ki kuch sambhavnayein hain.

Yen ki qeemat par asar dalne wale doosre maamlaat mein, global economic conditions bhi bohot ahmiyat rakhte hain. Agar koi bhi aisi khabar aati hai jo global market ko negative asar daalti hai, to Yen ki qeemat par bhi asar ho sakta hai. Isliye, investors ko chahiye ke wo broader market conditions par bhi nazar rakhein.

Yeh bhi yaad rakhna chahiye ke Japanese Yen aksar risk-off assets ke tor par dekha jata hai, matlab jab market mein uncertainty hoti hai, log Yen mein invest karte hain. Isliye agar global market mein koi instability aati hai, to is se Yen ki qeemat mein izafa ho sakta hai.

Akhir mein, mujhe yeh kehna hai ke traders ko in key levels par nazar rakhni chahiye, khaaskar 152.744 ka resistance aur 151.868 ka support. Yeh levels sirf technical analysis ka hissa nahi hain, balke market sentiment aur global economic conditions ke asraat ko bhi darshate hain. Is liye, in levels ka jaiza lena aur market ki overall trend ko samajhna bohot zaroori hai taake behtar trading decisions liye ja sakein.

USD/JPY Teknical Tajziya aur Paishgoi

H1 Chart:


USD/JPY abhi ek downtrend mein hai aur 151.43 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Yeh price 151.30 ke support level ke upar hai, jo agle price move ka faisla karega. Agar USD/JPY 151.30 se neeche girta hai, to mazeed girawat aa sakti hai, jo price ko aur neeche le ja sakti hai. Lekin agar yeh level hold karta hai aur 151.43 se bounce hota hai, to price 152.50 resistance level ko test kar sakta hai, jo 100 EMA ke saath milta hai.

H1 timeframe par market 100 EMA aur 20 SMA ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo bearish trend ko dikhata hai. 20 SMA ka 100 EMA se upar se neeche cross karna bhi ek bearish signal hai, jo mazeed girawat ki nishani ho sakti hai. RSI 33 par hai, jo dikhata hai ke market oversold zone ke qareeb hai. Agar RSI 30 se neeche chala jata hai, to ek temporary bounce ya consolidation dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Possible Scenarios




Bearish Scenario:


Agar USD/JPY price 151.30 se neeche chali jati hai, to selling pressure barh sakta hai. Iska matlab hai ke price 150.80 tak gir sakti hai. Is bearish trend ki tasdeeq ke liye humein selling volume aur RSI ke further girne ka intezar karna hoga.

Bullish Scenario:


Agar USD/JPY 151.30 se upar rehta hai aur recovery karta hai, to price 152.50 resistance level ko dobara test kar sakta hai. Agar price 152.50 se upar nikalta hai, to agla target 153.00 ya us se bhi upar ho sakta hai. Lekin bullish momentum ke liye zaroori hai ke RSI 40-50 ke upar jaye aur buying pressure barhe.

Nateeja


USD/JPY market ek critical level par hai, jahan 151.30 ek ahem support area hai. Agar price is level se neeche girta hai, to aur girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai, lekin agar yeh hold karta hai, to price 152.50 tak ja sakti hai.

Market ki harakat inflation control measures aur US economic policies par bhi depend karegi. Filhal lag raha hai ke yeh ek technical correction hai, na ke kisi long-term trend ka reversal. Traders ko 150 yen ke aas paas ke key levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye, kyunki yeh future direction ka faisla karega.

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USD/JPY 152.10 Tak Barh Gaya – Market Ka Mafhoom Kaisa Hai?


USD/JPY aj 0.48% barh kar 152.10 par pohanch gaya hai. Yeh izafa US Dollar ki mazbooti aur Federal Reserve ke ahthyati bayanat ki wajah se aya hai. Ab sab ki nazar Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report par hai, jo umeed hai ke January ke liye 175k jobs ka izafa dikhayegi.
NFP Report Aur Berozgari Ki Soorat-e-Haal


Jis tarah ki forecast hai, berozgari ki shara 4.1% par barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai aur wage growth 3.8% YoY par stable reh sakti hai. Magar jobless claims aur dosray economic indicators is baat ki nishandahi kar rahe hain ke jobs data expectations se behtar ho sakta hai. Agar aisa hua, to Fed apni monetary policy me tabdili karne se pehle aur bhi ehtiyat bartega.
Federal Reserve Ke Aham Bayanat


Fed ke mukhtalif officials ne rate cuts ke hawale se ihtiyat ka izhar kia hai. Dallas Fed ki Logan ka kehna hai ke agar mehngai 2% ke qareeb bhi chali jaye, to bhi foran rate cuts ka faisla nahi hoga. Chicago Fed ke Goolsbee ne fiscal uncertainties par bhi roshni dali jo agay jakar rate cuts ke process ko slow kar sakti hain.

Aaj Fed officials Bowman aur Kugler bhi speech dene wale hain, jo monetary policy ke hawale se mazeed insights de sakte hain.
USD/JPY Ke Technical Indicators


USD/JPY pair ka trend bullish lag raha hai. RSI indicator 30 level ke qareeb hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke selling pressure intense raha hai, magar correction ka imkaan bhi hai. Agar buying pressure barqarar raha, to pair 152.50 tak ja sakta hai, jabke support 151.50 par hai. Agar price key levels ke upar rehne me kamiyab rahi, to bulls ka faida barqarar rahega.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! Aisa lagta hai keh US dollar/Japanese yen ki jodi aaj badhne ke liye taiyar hai, halankeh yah qadam sirf ek islah ho sakta hai, jiske bad niche ka rujhan dobara shuru ho jayega. Filhal, yah jodi 152.30 ki muzahmati satah ke qarib pahunch gayi hai. Agar qimta is nishan se ooper jati hai aur mustahkam hoti hai to, jode ki tezi ka silsila jari rahne ka imkan hai. Agla hadaf descending channel ki oopri hadd ho sakta hai. Halankeh, aisa lagta hai keh bears shadid muzahmat kar rahe hain kiyunkeh qimat test ke liye 152.30 ki satah tak pahunchne ke liye bhi jaddo jehad kar rahi hai. Mai 152.30 se niche sell entry point ki tashkil ko bhi mustarad nahin karta hun. Is surat me, 150.98 ke pahle test shudah support satah ko hadaf ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai.

USD/JPY ka overall trend bearish hai aur aaj ke din agar dekha jaye toh humein trend direction ke mutabiq ek acchi trade mil sakti hai M30 time frame par ek low bana hua hai jo as a support kaam kar raha hai jiska level 151.80 hai agar yeh level sell side break hota hai toh ek acchi selling opportunity mil sakti hai jisme risk level bhi kam hoga RSI bhi 50 ke level se neeche aane ki koshish kar raha hai jo bearish momentum ko support kar raha hai agar price 151.80 ke neeche sustain karti hai toh agla target 151.50 ya uske neeche 151.20 ho sakta hai lekin agar price is support se bounce karti hai toh phir ek chhoti si retracement aayegi jo 152.10 tak ja sakti hai lekin jab tak price 50 EMA ke neeche hai aur RSI neeche gir raha hai tab tak selling pressure zyada hoga aur price neeche girne ke chances barh jayenge agar price 151.80 ko tod kar neeche girti hai aur wahan par ek bearish confirmation candle banti hai toh short entry lena behtar hoga lekin agar wahan se rejection aata hai toh price sideways ja sakti hai lekin overall market bearish hai aur selling side ki opportunities zyada strong hain agar dekha jaye toh dollar bhi weak ho raha hai aur USD index neeche gir raha hai jo USD/JPY pair par negative impact dal sakta hai Japan ki taraf se koi strong fundamental news nahi aayi lekin agar USD index aur neeche girta hai toh yen strong ho sakta hai aur USD/JPY neeche girne ke chances aur barh sakte hain market ka sentiment bhi abhi bearish hai aur price lower highs aur lower lows bana rahi hai jo ek proper downtrend ka indication deta hai agar price 151.80 ko todti hai toh short selling karna safe hoga lekin agar price bounce karti hai toh phir 152.10 ya 152.30 tak ek retracement move aa sakti hai lekin overall scenario selling ka hai aur RSI bhi is baat ka signal de raha hai ki price neeche ja sakti hai aur selling pressure dominate kar sakta hai.

فروری 18 2025 کے لیے امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کرنسی جوڑا 151.30 پر سپورٹ لیول پر پہنچ گیا ہے اور اس مقام سے اوپر کی طرف پلٹنا شروع کر رہا ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر تیزی کے رجحان کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے، جو صفر لائن تک پہنچنے کی نئی کوشش کرنے کے اشارے دکھاتا ہے۔ تاہم، قیمت موجودہ چینل کے اندر رہتے ہوئے اس حد کی خلاف ورزی نہیں کی جا سکتی ہے۔ لہذا، ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن بالآخر چینل سے نیچے کی طرف ٹوٹ جائے گی۔



اس منظر نامے میں، قیمت 149.38 تک گرنے سے پہلے رینج کی بالائی باؤنڈری کو 154.56 پر جانچ سکتی ہے۔ اگر قیمت 151.30 سپورٹ لیول سے نیچے مستحکم ہو جاتی ہے، تو ہم 270 پِپس کے پہلے اضافے کے بغیر 149.38 تک براہِ راست کمی کی توقع کر سکتے ہیں۔



چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت 152.57 پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے قریب پہنچ رہی ہے۔ اگر یہ اس سطح سے اوپر مستحکم ہوتا ہے، تو قیمت 154.56 کی طرف بڑھ سکتی ہے۔ مزید برآں، ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کو مارلن آسیلیٹر کے ذریعے سپورٹ کیا جا سکتا ہے۔ اگر آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن مثبت علاقے میں داخل ہونے میں ناکام ہو جاتی ہے تو، قیمت ممکنہ طور پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کو عبور کرنے کے لیے جدوجہد کرے گی اور ایک بار پھر 151.30 سپورٹ لیول کو آگے بڑھانے کی کوشش کرے گی۔

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