USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY: Upcoming Week Analysis

USD/JPY ka H4 timeframe chart iss waqt ek critical situation ko dikhata hai jo short-term aur long-term dono trends ke liye bohot significant hai. Sabse pehle, moving averages ka analysis karein toh white moving average ke neeche price ka girna short-term bearish pressure ko highlight karta hai. Iska matlab hai ke recent candles ne apni momentum lose kar li hai, lekin yellow moving average ke upar price ka rehna abhi tak long-term bullish trend ka signal de raha hai. Agar price 50 MA ke upar recover kar leti hai, toh market phir se bullish zone mein wapas ja sakti hai, magar agar yeh 200 MA ke neeche girti hai, toh long-term bearish scenario develop ho sakta hai. Chart mein Parabolic SAR ke dots bhi bohot meaningful signal de rahe hain. Pehle yeh dots price candles ke neeche thay, jo upward momentum ko indicate karte thay, lekin ab yeh candles ke upar aa gaye hain, jo downward momentum ka indicator hai. Yeh clearly batata hai ke market mein abhi short-term bearish pressure dominate kar raha hai. Neeche RSI ka indicator humein batata hai ke abhi RSI ka value 46 par hai, jo neutral zone mein hai. Yeh na to overbought aur na hi oversold condition ko signal kar raha hai. Agar RSI 30 ke level ke kareeb aata hai, toh oversold condition develop ho sakti hai, jo ek potential buying opportunity create kar sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar RSI 70 ke upar jata hai, toh market overbought zone mein chali jayegi aur selling pressure barhne ka imkaan hoga. Yeh chart iss waqt ek consolidation phase ko dikhata hai jahan price ek decision-making point par hai. Agar price 50 MA ke upar recover kar leti hai, toh bullish momentum wapas aa sakta hai, lekin agar price 200 MA ke neeche break karti hai, toh yeh long-term bearish signal hoga. Traders ko iss waqt Parabolic SAR, RSI aur support/resistance levels par focus rakhte hue cautiously trade karna chahiye.

USD/JPY pair ne Monday ko 158.88 ka chhay mahinay ka high touch kiya, jabke strong US non-farm payrolls report ke bawajood. Jobs ki headline numbers thori si expectations se kam rahin, lekin unemployment rate tezi se 4.1% tak gir gaya, aur average hourly earnings stable rahi. Yeh mazboot labor market data aksar Federal Reserve ke hawkish stance ko support karta hai aur US dollar ko mazboot banata hai.
Phir bhi, Monday ko USD/JPY pair mein halka pullback dekhne ko mila, jo 158.27 par trade kar raha tha, 0.09% ki girawat ke sath. Yeh chhoti si correction recent tezi ke baad profit-taking ki wajah se ho sakti hai. US Treasury 10-year yield pehle jobs data ke bawajood barhi, lekin baad mein 5 basis points neeche aa gayi. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo dollar ki strength ko ek basket of currencies ke muqablay mein naapta hai, November 2022 ke baad apni sabse unchi level par tha, jo US economy ki strength ko reflect karta hai.
Japanese yen dollar ke muqablay mein mazid weak hoti gayi, jabke expectations barh rahi hain ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) apni ultra-loose monetary policy ko adjust kar sakta hai. Bloomberg ke mutabiq, BoJ January tak interest rate decision lene ka soch raha hai, rising inflation ki wajah se.
Technical Analysis:





USD/JPY pair abhi bhi ek uptrend mein hai. Buyers ko year-to-date high 158.88 ko todna hoga taake 159.00 aur potentially 160.00 ka level challenge kiya ja sake. Support levels 157.45 (Tenkan-Sen) aur 156.24 par hain. Zyada momentum indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke bullish trend USD/JPY mein abhi bhi intact hai. RSI slightly overbought level par hai, jo uptrend mein thori weakness dikhata hai. Lekin ADX barh raha hai aur 25 ke threshold ke upar hai, jo current trend ki strength ko confirm karta hai. Stochastic oscillator bhi overbought territory ki taraf move kar raha hai, jo aur upside potential ki nishani hai.
Overall, USD/JPY pair strong US economic data aur BoJ ke monetary policy shift ke potential ki wajah se mazboot hai. Thodi near-term consolidation ho sakti hai, lekin pair ka overall trend bullish lagta hai.

USD/JPY ka technical analysis ke mutabiq market ki prices upar ja rahi hain magar apna structure tabdeel karne ki koshish mein hain.Pehle price ne ek trendline ki madad se girawat dekhi thi, magar hal hi mein is trendline ko tor diya gaya jo price ki girawat mein madadgar sabit hui.Ab market price breakout line ke upar close hui hai lekin abhi tak 157.43 ke support level ko tod nahi pai.Agar price apni momentum ko barqarar rakhti hai aur 50 day simple moving average ko paar kar leti hai toh ye agle chand dinon mein resistance todte hue main resistance 199.01 tak pahunch sakti hai. Waisay agar price 50 day moving average ke upar close karti hai magar 50-day moving average ke neeche hoti hai toh ye is baat ki tasdeeq karega ke market broken trendline ko dobara test kar rahi hai. 1 hour time frame mein dekha jaye toh price ab bhi trendline ke zariye girawat dikhata hai.Price resistance 199.01 aur support 157.43 ke darmiyan hai.Hal hi mein price ne trendline tod di hai magar jab tak minor resistance tod nahi jata price ke liye upar ka raasta mushkil hai.Indicators par nazar dalen toh 50-day aur 50 day moving averages dono resistance ke upar hain jo price ke liye challenges paida karte hain. RSI indicator ki value 43 hai, jo girawat ka signal kar rahi hai jabke RSI ab bhi purchase zone mein hai aur ascending wave structure barqarar hai.Market ki range kaafi narrow hai, sirf 150 points ke qareeb aur price accumulation zone mein hai.Jab price ne upar jaane ki koshish ki toh bas halka sa movement tha aur koi breakout nahi hua.Is ke baad price ne neeche ki taraf movement ki aur CCI indicator par bearish divergence note hui, jabke stochastic par bhi chhoti divergence samne ayi.Yeh sab dikhata hai ke bears mazboot hain aur price ke neeche girne ka imkaan zyada hai. Agar support 156.38 tod diya jaye toh downward wave start hogi aur price ka target 154.25 hoga.Filhaal downside par kaam karna zyada faida mand lagta hai jab tak price apni lower range ke qareeb hai.

Meri zati analysis ke mutabiq USD/JPY chart ko dekhte huay, mujhe lagta hai ke market bearish se bullish outlook ki taraf shift kar chuki hai, jo ke traders ke jazbat mein ek wazeh tabdeeli ko reflect karta hai. Shuru mein, chart late November aur early December ke doran ek downward trend dikhata hai, jo is baat ki nishani thi ke us waqt sellers dominant thay. Yeh girawat external factors, jaise ke macroeconomic pressures ya risk aversion ke sabab mazboot yen ki wajah se hui ho sakti hai. Magar, jab price 145.00 ke key support level ke qareeb pohonchi, to mujhe bearish momentum mein kami mehsoos hui, jo ek mumkin reversal ka signal tha.
Turning point mid-December mein aaya, jab price action ne ek critical resistance level ko tod diya, jo naye uptrend ka aghaaz tha. Mere liye yeh breakout significant tha, kyun ke isay strong bullish candlesticks aur moving averages (red aur green lines) ke clear crossover ka support mila. In technical signals ke sath, ATR aur StdDev indicators mein barhti hui market volatility ne bhi momentum ke shift ko confirm kiya. Mujhe lagta hai ke aise signals traders ke liye bohot qeemti hote hain, kyun ke yeh long positions enter karne ke liye zyada confidence dete hain.
Is waqt, pair 157.70 level ke qareeb consolidate kar raha hai. Mere nazar mein, yeh consolidation phase bullish trend ka ek natural pause hai, jo shayad ek continuation pattern, jaise flag ya pennant, ka signal ho sakta hai. Agar price 158.00 resistance ko todta hai, to mujhe mazeed gains ki umeed hai, aur agla logical target 160.00 level hoga. Lekin, main risks ka bhi khayal rakhta hoon, kyun ke agar upward momentum barqarar na raha, to price pullback kar ke 155.50 support area ko test kar sakta hai.
Mujhe khas tor par ATR aur StdDev indicators ka behavior consolidation ke doran interesting lagta hai. Yeh moderate volatility dikhate hain, jo mere liye market ke potential breakout ki tayyari ka signal hai. Yeh ek strategic trades ka acha mauqa faraham karta hai, bus risk ko carefully manage karna zaruri hai. Main apna stop-loss 155.50 support ke niche rakhoon ga, taake unexpected reversals se bacha ja sake.
Akhir mein, mere viewpoint ke mutabiq USD/JPY pair mazeed bullish movement ke liye tayar hai, lekin key levels par hoshiyari aur disciplined trading strategies barqarar rakhna is setup ko effectively navigate karne ke liye bohot zaruri hai.

USD/JPY pair abhi bhi 158.00 ke qareeb hover kar raha hai, jabke US economy ne pichle mahine 256,000 naye jobs create kiye, jo forecasts se zyada hain. US unemployment rate 4.1% tak gir gaya, lekin average hourly earnings thodi si decrease hui hain, jo Federal Reserve ke rate cut projections ko influence kar rahi hain. Iske ilawa, US 10-year Treasury yield mein volatility dekhne ko mili, jo peak par 4.788% tak pohchi. Pair Friday ko pressured raha, magar overall uptrend barqarar hai. Agar buyers current YTD peak 158.88 tod dete hain, toh wo 159.00 aur phir 160.00 ko target kar sakte hain. Neeche ki taraf, pehli support line Tenkan-sen par 157.45 hai, jo girawat ka signal deti hai aur price 156.24 ke swing low tak jasakti hai. USD/JPY ne 158.88 ka six-month high touch kiya, jo ke US Nonfarm Payrolls report ke baad dekha gaya, jisme unemployment rate 4% ke qareeb tha. Pair ab 158.27 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.09% neeche hai. US Bureau of Labor Statistics ke mutabiq, pichle mahine economy ne 256,000 naye jobs add kiye, magar November ka data revise karke 227,000 se 212,000 kar diya gaya. Forecasts mein 160,000 jobs ka estimation tha, aur private hiring 223,000 tak rahi.Unemployment rate 4.1% tak gir gaya, aur Average Hourly Earnings 4% se 3.9% par agayi. Iss data release ke baad, traders expect karte hain ke Federal Reserve 2025 mein sirf ek dafa rate cut karega. US 10-year Treasury note 4.788% par pohcha, lekin phir 5 basis points retreat kar ke 4.739% par aagaya, jo Greenback par pressure daalne laga aur USD/JPY negative ho gaya.US Dollar Index (DXY) November 2022 ke baad se apne highest level 109.96 par pohcha, lekin ab 109.55 par hai, jo 0.36% upar hai. Asian session mein Bloomberg ne reveal kiya ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) January ke liye rate decision par abhi bhi soch raha hai aur inflation forecasts increase kar raha hai due to Japanese Yen ke weakness. Rate hike ke chances filhal coin flip ke barabar hain.BoJ ki loose monetary policy ki wajah se Japanese yen under pressure hai. Japan ki ultra-low interest rates aur yield curve control measures JPY ko weak banaye huye hain. Dunya ke changing economic environment ke bawajood BoJ ne apne stance ko change nahi kiya. Iss wajah se USD/JPY abhi upar ki taraf trade kar raha hai.US dollar ko support mil raha hai due to positive economic data aur Federal Reserve ki higher rates ki commitment.Traders short-term mein USD ke mazeed strong hone par bet kar rahe hain. Iss ke baraks, yen sentiment abhi bhi weak hai BoJ ke dovish stance ki wajah se.

USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

USD/JPY pair ne Thursday ko upward pressure experience kiya aur 158.00 level cross kar liya, jo kay kai factors ki wajah se hua. Japan se robust wage growth data aayi, lekin Bank of Japan (BOJ) ke rate hike ke hawalay se doubts ne yen ki strength ko kaafi hinder kiya. US aur Japanese bonds ke darmiyan yield differential ka widen hona aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki hawkish signals ne yen ki appeal ko aur kam kar diya kyunke uski yields lower hain. Lekin kuch factors yen ki depreciation ko limit kar saktay hain. Japanese authorities ke taraf se currency market mein yen ko support karne ke liye intervention ka possibility hai, especially jab concerns yen ki weakness ke baray mein hoon. Iske ilawa, risk-averse market sentiment, geopolitical risks, aur US policies ke hawalay se apprehension bhi yen ko ek safe-haven currency ke tor par support de sakti hain. Risk aversion ki wajah se US bond yields mein slight decline ne US dollar par downward pressure dala hai, jo USD/JPY ki upside potential ko limit kar sakta hai.

Technical Perspective:





Agar pair mein koi pullback hota hai, toh 157.55-157.50 support level ke kareeb buying ka ek moka ho sakta hai. Agar selling pressure barhta hai, toh USD/JPY 157.00 mark tak ja sakta hai, aur uske baad 156.75 area aur 156.25-156.20 weekly low pe potential support milega. 156.00 level ek aur key support zone represent karta hai. Upside par, 158.55 area, jo ke Wednesday ko monthly highs tha, ek immediate hurdle banay ga. Agar consolidation continue hoti hai, toh USD/JPY 159.00 mark ki taraf ja sakta hai. Psychologically significant 160.00 level ko reclaim karne se pehlay, pair ko 159.45 mid-level ke kareeb resistance ka samna ho sakta hai.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! US dollar/Japanese yen joda 156.06 ki support satah ki taraf badhte hue ek sideways range me aage badh raha hai. Is simt me koi khas ummid nahin hai kiyunkeh aam rujhan ko tezi wala samjha jata hai. Iske bawajud, market range bound bana hua hai. Shayad is qadam ko ek chote se pullback ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai. Iske bad, qimat me badhat dobara shuru hone, 158.1 ki muzahmati satah ko todne aur iske ooper mustahkam hone ka imkan hai. Agar aisa hota hai to, kharid signal paida hoga, aur kharidar qimat ko nayi muqami bulandi tak le jane ke liye musalsal koshish karenge. 161.71 ki kafi aham muzahmati satah tak bahut kam faslah baqi, lehaza kuch bhi ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY pair ka H1 timeframe par price movements ka structure technical aur fundamental factors se mutasir lagta hai. Filhaal ka market level, jo kareeban 157.72 par hai, ek consolidation phase ko zahir karta hai jo pichle kuch sessions ke doran strong bullish trend ke baad aya hai. Ye consolidation ya to trend ke aage barhne ka ishara de sakta hai ya phir kisi reversal ka, jo mazeed market developments par depend karega.
Agar price action ka analysis karein, to pair ne higher highs aur higher lows ka silsila establish kiya hai, jo bullish momentum ko zahir karta hai. Lekin recent candles ne market mein indecision dikhayi hai, jin ke body sizes chhoti aur wicks dono sides par hain. Ye uncertainty aksar buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan battle ko zahir karti hai. Traders ko chahiye ke breakout ka intizaar karein taake agle directional move ki tasdeeq ho sake. Chart par moving averages se market dynamics ka acha andaza hota hai. Short-term moving average abhi bhi long-term moving average se upar hai, jo classic bullish strength ka signal hai. Lekin in averages ke darmiyan gap ka kam hona dikhata hai ke bullish momentum dheema ho sakta hai.

Yeh un logon ke liye ehtiyaat ka maqam hai jo naye long positions lena chahte hain. Key support aur resistance levels is chart ki analysis ke liye bohot zaroori hain. Qareebi support level 157.00 par hai, jo pehle buyers ke price ko defend karne ka area raha hai. Agar yeh level toot jaye, to price mazeed neeche ja kar 156.00 tak pahunch sakti hai. Dusri taraf, resistance 158.40 par hai, jahan price ke liye break karna mushkil sabit hua hai. Agar yeh resistance level successfully toot gaya, to price 159.50 tak barhne ke liye raah bana sakti hai. Average True Range (ATR) indicator moderate level ki volatility zahir karta hai, jo dikhata hai ke traders ko established range ke andar price swings ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Yeh moderate volatility consolidation phase ke saath align karti hai aur dikhata hai ke significant moves ke liye external catalysts, jaise macroeconomic data ya news events, ki zarurat hogi. Trendline perspective se dekha jaye to late November se upward slope abhi tak intact hai, jo prevailing bullish trend ko aur mazbooti deta hai. Lekin price ka ab tak higher highs break na kar pana exhaustion ki taraf ishara karta hai. Is liye, traders ko breakdown ke chances par nazar rakhni chahiye. USD/JPY pair ka H1 timeframe par mix outlook hai. Jahan broader trend bullish hai, wahan recent consolidation aur momentum ka dheema hona ehtiyaat ka talabgar hai. Traders ko key levels—157.00 ka support aur 158.40 ka resistance—monitor karna chahiye taake agle move ke signals milein. Agar resistance ke upar breakout hota hai to ye bullish strength ke nayi lehar ka signal dega, aur agar support ke neeche break hota hai to sentiment bearish ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY kareeb 157.30 tak gir gaya hai, halaan ke US Dollar ne nayi 2 saal ki bulandi haasil ki hai. Traders ne Fed ke dovish bets ko upbeat US NFP data ki wajah se revise kar diya hai. Risk-aversion ka barhna JPY ki safe-haven demand ko mazboot kar raha hai. Monday ke European session mein USD/JPY pair kareeb 157.30 tak gir gaya. Yeh girawat us waqt dekhi gayi jab US Dollar mazboot hai, jo ke Japanese Yen (JPY) ki taqat ko zyada darust dikhata hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko 6 major currencies ke against track karta hai, 110.00 se zyada ki 2 saal ki bulandi ko refresh kar raha hai.
Greenback is liye mazboot hai kyunke market experts ne iss saal ke interest rate cuts ki expectations ko revise kar diya hai. Macquarie ke analysts ke mutabiq, Fed iss saal sirf ek dafa borrowing rates ko cut karega, aur current interest rate cycle 4.00%-4.25% ke range mein bottom karega. Wazeh hai ke latest dot plot ke mutabiq, Fed officials iss saal do interest rate cuts ki umeed kar rahe the.
Market participants ne Friday ke upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data ke baad Fed ke dovish bets ko reduce kar diya. NFP report ne dikhaya ke labor demand mazboot hai aur unemployment unexpected tor par kam hui. Iss hafte, investors ka focus US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data par hoga jo Wednesday ko publish hoga. Market participants inflation data ko gahri nazar se dekhenge, kyunke Fed policymakers ne hal hi mein iss baat par concern dikhaya hai ke inflationary pressures 2% ke target tak slowdown nahi ho raha.
Doosri taraf, Yen ki safe-haven appeal global uncertainty ki wajah se mazboot hui hai. Equities mein sharp girawat dekhi gayi hai risk-aversion mood ke chalte, jab US President-elect Donald Trump 20 January ko White House wapas aa rahe hain. Saath hi, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke zyada interest rate hikes ki expectations ne Japanese currency ko aur mazboot kiya hai. Traders umeed karte hain ke BoJ apne March meeting mein borrowing rates ko barhaye ga.

USD/JPY ka H4 timeframe chart iss waqt ek critical situation ko dikhata hai jo short-term aur long-term dono trends ke liye bohot significant hai. Sabse pehle, moving averages ka analysis karein toh white moving average ke neeche price ka girna short-term bearish pressure ko highlight karta hai. Iska matlab hai ke recent candles ne apni momentum lose kar li hai, lekin yellow moving average ke upar price ka rehna abhi tak long-term bullish trend ka signal de raha hai. Agar price 50 MA ke upar recover kar leti hai, toh market phir se bullish zone mein wapas ja sakti hai, magar agar yeh 200 MA ke neeche girti hai, toh long-term bearish scenario develop ho sakta hai. Chart mein Parabolic SAR ke dots bhi bohot meaningful signal de rahe hain. Pehle yeh dots price candles ke neeche thay, jo upward momentum ko indicate karte thay, lekin ab yeh candles ke upar aa gaye hain, jo downward momentum ka indicator hai. Yeh clearly batata hai ke market mein abhi short-term bearish pressure dominate kar raha hai. Neeche RSI ka indicator humein batata hai ke abhi RSI ka value 46 par hai, jo neutral zone mein hai. Yeh na to overbought aur na hi oversold condition ko signal kar raha hai. Agar RSI 30 ke level ke kareeb aata hai, toh oversold condition develop ho sakti hai, jo ek potential buying opportunity create kar sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar RSI 70 ke upar jata hai, toh market overbought zone mein chali jayegi aur selling pressure barhne ka imkaan hoga. Yeh chart iss waqt ek consolidation phase ko dikhata hai jahan price ek decision-making point par hai. Agar price 50 MA ke upar recover kar leti hai, toh bullish momentum wapas aa sakta hai, lekin agar price 200 MA ke neeche break karti hai, toh yeh long-term bearish signal hoga. Traders ko iss waqt Parabolic SAR, RSI aur support/resistance levels par focus rakhte hue cautiously trade karna chahiye

USD/JPY ka analysis dekha jaye toh aaj market ka focus US Producer Price Index (PPI) aur Federal Reserve officials ki speeches par hai.Agar PPI data economists ki expectations ke mutabiq aata hai toh traders ka dihan US policymakers ke bayanat par zyada hoga.John Williams aur Jeffrey Schmid ka zikar important hai jo inflation ke mamlaat aur rate cuts par apne ehtiyaat bharay approach ka zikar karenge.Agar Williams yeh point out karte hain ke inflation ka kam hona waqt le raha hai, toh yeh dollar buyers ke liye ek acha signal ho sakta hai. Saath hi US trade tariffs ke hawale se afwahein aur unke implementation plans par bhi traders ka dihan hoga. Intraday trading strategy ke liye, do scenarios samjhe ja rahe hain.Pehla yeh ke USD/JPY ko 158.10 par buy kiya jaye jab MACD zero mark ke upar ho aur naya upward movement start ho raha ho target 158.82 hoga, jahan sell karna behtar hoga aur 30-35 pip ki girawat ki umeed ki ja sakti hai. Dosra scenario yeh ke agar price 157.60 ko do baar test kare aur MACD oversold zone mein ho toh market reversal ka intezar karte huye upward movement ka target rakha jaye.Wahi sell scenarios ke liye pehla tareeqa yeh hai ke 157.60 ka level todhne par sell positions open ki jayein aur target 156.87 ho.Yahan bearish pressure ke madad se price neeche ja sakti hai. Dusra yeh ke agar 158.10 do baar test ho aur MACD overbought zone mein ho, toh downward reversal ka intezar karte huye targets 157.60 aur 156.87 rakhein.Traders ko MACD ke signals aur critical levels par focus rakhna hoga jaise 157.60 158.10 158.82 aur 156.87.Is waqt USD/JPY mein strong trends hain aur PPI aur policymakers ke bayanat market ke sentiment par baray asar dalenge.Indicators aur levels ko dhyan mein rakhte huye trading decisions lena zaroori hai.

Recent inflation data ki release ne broader currency market mein pullback trigger kiya hai, kyun ke yeh data Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke January mein interest rate hike ke expectations ko bolster kar raha hai. BoJ ki December monetary policy meeting ke Summary of Opinions ne yeh plan outline kiya hai ke agar economic conditions unke forecasts ke mutabiq hoon, toh easing measures adjust ki jayengi. Board ke key members ne kuch crucial factors highlight kiye hain, jaise ke wage negotiations ka momentum aur economic data ki bariki se jaanch, jo monetary policy mein kisi bhi tabdeeli ko justify karte hain.
Dousri taraf, US Dollar mazboot hai Federal Reserve (Fed) ke evolving expectations ke darmiyan. Fed ne haal hi mein interest rates ko quarter point se reduce kiya aur apne 2025 ke projections adjust kiye, jo ab sirf do rate cuts forecast karte hain, jab ke pehle chaar anticipate kiye gaye the. Moderate US PCE inflation data ne additional rate cuts ke chances ko temper kiya hai, jo dollar ko ek measure of stability de raha hai, jab ke global monetary policy divergence zyada evident hoti ja rahi hai.
H1 Chart Analysis:





Technically, pair Friday ke early European trading hours mein 157.90 level ke aas-paas flat hai, jab traders Fed aur BoJ ke upcoming interest rate decisions ke liye caution exercise kar rahe hain. Immediate support 157.60 ke aas-paas hai, jo pichle session ke swing low ke sath align karta hai. Agar selling pressure sustain raha aur price 157.00 level ke neeche gaya, toh pair 156.85 region ki taraf move kar sakta hai. Is breach se 156.50 ka support level aur psychologically significant 156.00 ka mark expose ho sakta hai. Traders in levels par focused hain taake bearish momentum ko gauge kiya ja sake aur dekha ja sake ke buyers pair ko critical thresholds ke upar maintain kar sakte hain ya nahi.

USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

"USD/JPY ka yeh H4 timeframe ka chart price action aur indicators ka istamal dikhata hai jo trading decisions mein madadgar ho sakta hai. Chart par moving averages (white aur yellow lines) ka analysis kiya gaya hai jo trend direction aur support/resistance zones ko samajhne ke liye zaroori hai. White line longer-term average ko represent kar rahi hai, jabke yellow line short-term trend ko follow kar rahi hai. Abhi price dono moving averages ke upar hai, jo bullish momentum ki taraf ishara kar raha hai. Lekin, price near-term resistance level ke kareeb trade kar rahi hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke agle levels par market testing kar sakti hai. Jo log trend-following strategy use karte hain, unke liye yeh analysis kaafi valuable ho sakta hai. Chart par green dots bhi dikhai de rahe hain jo Parabolic SAR indicator ko represent karte hain. Yeh indicator trend direction aur reversal points ko samajhne ke liye madad karta hai. Dots price ke neeche hain, jo confirm karte hain ke market abhi upward trend mein hai. Neeche RSI (Relative Strength Index) ka indicator dikhaya gaya hai jo abhi 52 ke level par hai. Yeh ek neutral zone hai, na overbought hai aur na oversold. Iska matlab hai ke market abhi kisi bhi direction mein move kar sakti hai. Agar RSI 70 ke upar chali jaye, toh yeh overbought condition ko indicate karegi, aur agar 30 ke neeche aaye, toh oversold market ko signal karegi. Agar aap breakout trader hain, toh resistance level ka dhyan rakhein, kyun ke agar price is level ko todti hai, toh aur zyada bullish momentum aasakta hai. Lekin agar market yahan se neeche girti hai, toh support levels par stop-loss aur entry points define karna zaroori hai. Hamesha risk management ka khayal rakhein aur market ke against impulsive trades lene se bachen."

USD/JPY ke sellers ne price ko 158.00 sy bhi neeche laya aur thoda aur neeche bhi lekin pair ka overall trend abhi bhi bullish lagta hai.Jab tak price 156.00 ke neeche strongly break nahi karta selling ke options consider karna theek nahi hoga. Abhi tak market mein koi significant bearish signals nazar nahi aa rahe, aur buyers ne recent days mein price ko wapas 158.00 tak le jaane ki koshish ki hai.Yen ki taraf thodi stability dikhane ki koshish zarur hui hai lekin kisi substantial decline ke liye koi mazboot waja dikhai nahi de rahi.Is liye agar price thoda rollback karte hue 157.65 ke area tak aaye toh wahan se USD/JPY ka aage ka growth scenario relevant ban jata hai. Meri expectations abhi bhi unchanged hain aur mujhe lagta hai ke buyers pehle price ko 159.00 tak le jayenge, uske baad 160.00 aur phir 162.00-162.20 tak ka target achieve karne ki koshish hogi.Yeh sab tabhi possible hai agar koi unexpected news ya economic reports ke wajah se market ka mood na badle.Abhi ke liye USD/JPY pair ek range bound phase mein hai lekin main trend abhi bhi upward hi nazar aata hai.Pichle trading sessions mein humne dekha ke pair ne 158.00 ke upar consolidate karne ki koshish ki, lekin wo successful nahi raha.Is waqt 156.00 ke around ek platform bana hua hai aur mera maanna hai ke price neeche aakar wahan test karega lekin uske baad fir se recovery ki umeed hai.
Saath hi yen abhi pressure mein hai kyunki dollar negative PPI data ke baad gir raha hai.Lekin yeh interesting baat hai ke USD/JPY pair mein iska zyada asar nahi hua.Yeh bhi important hoga ke US trading session kaise perform karta hai kyunki inflation reports aur Federal Reserve ki policies market ke direction mein significant changes la sakti hain.Main abhi ke price levels par buying ko attractive nahi samajhta, lekin agar price 158.50 ke upar jaye aur wahan stability dikhaye toh main wahan par selling ka sochunga.Mujhe lagta hai ke short term mein kuch pullbacks aa sakte hain lekin long term trend abhi bhi bullish hi lagta hai. Market mein trading karte waqt risk management aur patience bohot zaruri hai aur sab traders ko meri taraf se best of luck!

USD/JPY ka analysis dekha jaye toh aaj market ka focus US Producer Price Index (PPI) aur Federal Reserve officials ki speeches par hai.Agar PPI data economists ki expectations ke mutabiq aata hai toh traders ka dihan US policymakers ke bayanat par zyada hoga.John Williams aur Jeffrey Schmid ka zikar important hai jo inflation ke mamlaat aur rate cuts par apne ehtiyaat bharay approach ka zikar karenge.Agar Williams yeh point out karte hain ke inflation ka kam hona waqt le raha hai, toh yeh dollar buyers ke liye ek acha signal ho sakta hai. Saath hi US trade tariffs ke hawale se afwahein aur unke implementation plans par bhi traders ka dihan hoga. Intraday trading strategy ke liye, do scenarios samjhe ja rahe hain.Pehla yeh ke USD/JPY ko 158.10 par buy kiya jaye jab MACD zero mark ke upar ho aur naya upward movement start ho raha ho target 158.82 hoga, jahan sell karna behtar hoga aur 30-35 pip ki girawat ki umeed ki ja sakti hai. Dosra scenario yeh ke agar price 157.60 ko do baar test kare aur MACD oversold zone mein ho toh market reversal ka intezar karte huye upward movement ka target rakha jaye.Wahi sell scenarios ke liye pehla tareeqa yeh hai ke 157.60 ka level todhne par sell positions open ki jayein aur target 156.87 ho.Yahan bearish pressure ke madad se price neeche ja sakti hai. Dusra yeh ke agar 158.10 do baar test ho aur MACD overbought zone mein ho, toh downward reversal ka intezar karte huye targets 157.60 aur 156.87 rakhein.Traders ko MACD ke signals aur critical levels par focus rakhna hoga jaise 157.60 158.10 158.82 aur 156.87.Is waqt USD/JPY mein strong trends hain aur PPI aur policymakers ke bayanat market ke sentiment par baray asar dalenge.Indicators aur levels ko dhyan mein rakhte huye trading decisions lena zaroori hai.Click image for larger version