USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY pair mein aaj mazboot izafa dekha gaya hai, jo zyada tar is liye hai kyun ke Japanese yen US dollar ke muqablay mein kamzor ho raha hai. Hali mein, Federal Reserve (Fed) ne char saal mein pehli dafa bohat zyada interest rates kam kiye hain. Na sirf rates kaat diye gaye, balki yeh kami umeed se zyada thi. Aam tor par, jab Fed interest rates kam karta hai, toh US dollar kamzor hota hai, lekin is dafa kuch aur factors dollar ko mazboot bana rahe hain. Kam interest rate ka matlab hota hai ke qarz lena sasta hota hai aur economic activity ko tehqiqat milti hai. Magar is dafa, dollar phir bhi mazboot nazar aa raha hai, kyun ke doosri currencies, jaise yen, ke muqablay mein wo zyada stable hai.
Doosri taraf, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka approach mukhtalif hai. BoJ apni policy ko jari rakhne ka irada rakhta hai, matlab ke woh jaldi interest rates mein koi tabdeeli nahi karenge. BoJ ne kaafi arse se low-interest-rate policy apna rakhi hai taake economic growth ko barhaya ja sake. Is policy ne yen ko kamzor rakha hai, khaaskar mazboot currencies jaise US dollar ke muqablay mein. Yeh contrast in policies, jahan US rates kam kar raha hai aur Japan unhein kaafi neeche rakh raha hai, yen ko mazid kamzor kar raha hai. Is yen ki kamzori ke sabab USD/JPY pair mein izafa hua hai, jo investors ko ek moka de raha hai ke wo upward movement se faida utha sakein. Ab bohot se traders yeh dekh rahe hain ke BoJ ka faisla market pe kaise asar andaz hoga, lekin ab tak yen kamzor hi nazar aa raha hai.

Technical Analysis:

USD/JPY pair filhal 143.55 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai, aur yeh ek notable rise dikhati hai. Pair ko 143.68 ka ek key resistance level face karna par raha hai. Yeh resistance ek barrier ki tarah hai jo price ko mazeed barhne se rok raha hai. Hali trend ko dekhte hue, yeh lagta hai ke bulls (wo traders jo price ke barhne ki umeed rakhte hain) is level ke ooper push karne mein kaamyab ho sakte hain. Agar yeh hota hai, toh mazeed izafay ka rasta khul sakta hai.

Do ahem moving average indicators bhi yeh ishara de rahe hain ke market bullish phase mein hai. Moving averages wo tools hain jo traders ko price ka rujhan samajhne mein madad karte hain. Jab price in moving averages ke ooper rehti hai, toh aam tor par iska matlab hota hai ke market bullish hai, ya barh raha hai. Is waqt, dono short-term aur long-term moving averages yeh dikhate hain ke upward trend jaari reh sakta hai. Yeh traders ke liye ek positive sign hai jo USD/JPY pair mein mazeed izafa dekhna chahte hain.

Stochastic oscillator, jo ek aur ahem technical tool hai, bhi bullish signals de raha hai. Stochastic momentum ko napta hai, aur yeh dikhata hai ke market overbought (bohat zyada barh chuka hai) ya oversold (bohat zyada gir chuka hai) hai ya nahi. Is waqt, stochastic support kar raha hai ke market ke paas abhi bhi barhne ki gunjaish hai. In indicators ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair ke paas 143.68 ke resistance ko tor kar upward rally ko jaari rakhne ka achha chance hai. Magar, traders ko har achanak market tabdeeli par nazar rakhni chahiye, khaaskar central banks ke aane wale faislay jo price ko asar andaz kar sakte hain.

Japanese yen ne apne din ke dauran kuch faida khoya, lekin phir bhi mazboot raha, jab ke Federal Reserve ke Wednesday ko ek bara rate cut hone ki umeed barh rahi hai. Ab traders ka rujhan Bank of Japan ki monetary policy ke faislay par hai, jo Friday ko aane wala hai. Umeed hai ke BoJ interest rates ko barqarar rakhega lekin agay rate hike ka darwaza khula chhod dega. August mein Japan ka merchandise trade balance ek bara trade deficit ke sath 695.3 billion yen par tha, jo pichle maheenay ke 628.7 billion yen se zyada tha, lekin market ke 1,380 billion yen ke expected gap se kafi kam. Exports mein 5.6% ka izafa hua, jo no maeeno se lagataar growth dikhata hai, lekin umeed ke 10.0% se kam raha. Imports mein sirf 2.3% ka izafa hua, jo pichle paanch maeeno ka sabse sust rujhan tha, aur 13.4% ke expected izafay se bohot kam raha.
Dusri taraf, US dollar dabao mein hai, kyun ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) se umeed hai ke Wednesday ko ek bara 50 basis point ka rate cut announce hoga. CME FedWatch tool dikhata hai ke 25bp rate cut ka probability ab 33.0% par hai, jab ke 50bp rate cut ka probability 67.0% tak barh gaya hai, jo pehle din 62.0% tha.

USD/JPY Pair Analysis:

Aaj ke din USD/JPY pair mein ek tezi se girawat dekhi gayi, jo 14 maeeno ka low 139.56 tak pohch gaya, aur sharp sell-off jari hai. Prices mid-August se downtrend mein hain, aur technical oscillators bhi is rujhan ki tasdeeq kar rahe hain. MACD trigger aur zero lines ke neeche hai, jab ke RSI 30 level se neeche hai. Mazeed downside pressure se bears ko July 2023 ke low 137.25 tak push kar sakta hai, aur phir April 2023 ka psychological level 133.00 tak gir sakta hai. Agar price mein thoda izafa hota hai, toh short-term falling trend line 141.70 par upward momentum ko rokh sakti hai. Traders ko FED data par nazar rakhni chahiye taake market ka faida utha saken.

Japanese yen ne apne din ke dauran kuch faida khoya, lekin phir bhi mazboot raha, jab ke Federal Reserve ke Wednesday ko ek bara rate cut hone ki umeed barh rahi hai. Ab traders ka rujhan Bank of Japan ki monetary policy ke faislay par hai, jo Friday ko aane wala hai. Umeed hai ke BoJ interest rates ko barqarar rakhega lekin agay rate hike ka darwaza khula chhod dega. August mein Japan ka merchandise trade balance ek bara trade deficit ke sath 695.3 billion yen par tha, jo pichle maheenay ke 628.7 billion yen se zyada tha, lekin market ke 1,380 billion yen ke expected gap se kafi kam. Exports mein 5.6% ka izafa hua, jo no maeeno se lagataar growth dikhata hai, lekin umeed ke 10.0% se kam raha. Imports mein sirf 2.3% ka izafa hua, jo pichle paanch maeeno ka sabse sust rujhan tha, aur 13.4% ke expected izafay se bohot kam raha.
Dusri taraf, US dollar dabao mein hai, kyun ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) se umeed hai ke Wednesday ko ek bara 50 basis point ka rate cut announce hoga. CME FedWatch tool dikhata hai ke 25bp rate cut ka probability ab 33.0% par hai, jab ke 50bp rate cut ka probability 67.0% tak barh gaya hai, jo pehle din 62.0% tha.

USD/JPY Pair Analysis:

Aaj ke din USD/JPY pair mein ek tezi se girawat dekhi gayi, jo 14 maeeno ka low 139.56 tak pohch gaya, aur sharp sell-off jari hai. Prices mid-August se downtrend mein hain, aur technical oscillators bhi is rujhan ki tasdeeq kar rahe hain. MACD trigger aur zero lines ke neeche hai, jab ke RSI 30 level se neeche hai. Mazeed downside pressure se bears ko July 2023 ke low 137.25 tak push kar sakta hai, aur phir April 2023 ka psychological level 133.00 tak gir sakta hai. Agar price mein thoda izafa hota hai, toh short-term falling trend line 141.70 par upward momentum ko rokh sakti hai. Traders ko FED data par nazar rakhni chahiye taake market ka faida utha saken.

USD-JPY Karansi Pair
Heiken Ashi candles, TMA (Triangular Moving Average), aur RSI indicators ka mutaliya karne ke baad, jo ke is karansi pair/instrument ke liye istemal kiye gaye hain, hum dekh sakte hain ke market is waqt kharidaron ki taqat mein kamzori ka intezar kar raha hai aur bechne walon ki taraf rujhan dikha raha hai. Heiken Ashi candles aam shama’on se mukhtalif hoti hain, yeh qeemat ko smooth ya average karke dikhati hain.

Yeh tareeqa technical analysis ko asaan banata hai aur trading faislay karne ki durusti ko barhata hai. TMA channel indicator (jo ke red, blue, aur yellow rang ki lines se bana hota hai) moving averages ko do martaba smooth kar ke support aur resistance lines tay karta hai, aur yeh wazeh taur par instrument ke harakat ki current boundaries dikhata hai. Heiken Ashi ke saath mil kar trades ko filter karne ke liye ek mazeed oscillator ka istemal kiya gaya hai, jo ke RSI basement indicator hai aur yeh positive natayij dikhata hai.

Is karansi pair ke chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke shama’on ka rang red ho gaya hai, jo ke bearish interest ki taqat ko highlight karta hai. Qeemat ne channel ki upper boundary (blue dotted line) ko cross kiya aur maximum point se wapas takra kar dobara apni middle line (yellow dotted line) ki taraf rujhan kar liya. Saath hi, RSI oscillator bhi sell signal ki tasdeeq karta hai kyun ke is waqt uska curve neeche ki taraf hai aur oversold level ke qareeb nahi hai. Is buniyad par hum ye natija nikal sakte hain ke yeh ek acha waqt hai ek profitable short sell transaction ke liye, jiska maqsad channel ki lower boundary (red dotted line) tak pohchna hai, jo ke qeemat ke hisaab se 139.100 ke mark par waqe hai.

USD-JPY Karansi Pair
Heiken Ashi candles, TMA (Triangular Moving Average), aur RSI indicators ka mutaliya karne ke baad, jo ke is karansi pair/instrument ke liye istemal kiye gaye hain, hum dekh sakte hain ke market is waqt kharidaron ki taqat mein kamzori ka intezar kar raha hai aur bechne walon ki taraf rujhan dikha raha hai. Heiken Ashi candles aam shama’on se mukhtalif hoti hain, yeh qeemat ko smooth ya average karke dikhati hain.

Yeh tareeqa technical analysis ko asaan banata hai aur trading faislay karne ki durusti ko barhata hai. TMA channel indicator (jo ke red, blue, aur yellow rang ki lines se bana hota hai) moving averages ko do martaba smooth kar ke support aur resistance lines tay karta hai, aur yeh wazeh taur par instrument ke harakat ki current boundaries dikhata hai. Heiken Ashi ke saath mil kar trades ko filter karne ke liye ek mazeed oscillator ka istemal kiya gaya hai, jo ke RSI basement indicator hai aur yeh positive natayij dikhata hai.

Is karansi pair ke chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke shama’on ka rang red ho gaya hai, jo ke bearish interest ki taqat ko highlight karta hai. Qeemat ne channel ki upper boundary (blue dotted line) ko cross kiya aur maximum point se wapas takra kar dobara apni middle line (yellow dotted line) ki taraf rujhan kar liya. Saath hi, RSI oscillator bhi sell signal ki tasdeeq karta hai kyun ke is waqt uska curve neeche ki taraf hai aur oversold level ke qareeb nahi hai. Is buniyad par hum ye natija nikal sakte hain ke yeh ek acha waqt hai ek profitable short sell transaction ke liye, jiska maqsad channel ki lower boundary (red dotted line) tak pohchna hai, jo ke qeemat ke hisaab se 139.100 ke mark par waqe hai.

USD/JPY currency pair ki qeemat ki haliya soorat-e-haal ka tajziya hai. USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ehtiyat ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat

USD/JPY Qeemat Ki Projection
Hamara guftagu USD/JPY karansi pair ke mojooda qeemat ke rawaiye par ho rahi hai, jise hum dekh rahe hain. USD/JPY pair ne 142.29 par apna din band kiya. H4 technical chart par, Envelopes indicator qeemat mein kami ka ishara de raha hai, jab ke Momentum indicator selling ka moqa dikhata hai. MACD bhi negative zone mein hai, jo is baat ko mazid barhawa deta hai ke qeemat neeche ja sakti hai, aur 140.01 tak pohchne ka imkaan hai. Magar mera irada ye hai ke main unchi qeemat par sell karoon, ideally 147.01 ke qareeb, jahan mein qeemat mein izafa ki umeed karta hoon. Mera mansuba yeh hai ke qeemat ko oopar chadne ka intezar karoon, sellers ke stop-losses collect karoon, aur phir qeemat neeche giray. Bullish outlook abhi bhi stable hai, lekin yeh sab speculative hai aur asal natija market tay karega.

USD/JPY pair ne apne nuqsanat ko dosray din bhi barqarar rakha, aur Wednesday ke Asian session ke doran qeemat 141.20 ke qareeb thi. Yeh neeche ki taraf harakat zyada tar us wajah se thi ke Japanese yen (JPY) mazid taqatwar ho gaya, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governing Council ke rukun Junko Nagakawa ke hawkish comments ke baad. BoJ apni monetary easing ko adjust kar sakta hai agar iqtisadi aur qeemati trends uske expectatons ke mutabiq rahein. July mein shu’mar barhane ke bawajood, asal shu’mar negative rahe, jo yeh dikhata hai ke monetary conditions ab bhi soft hain. BoJ aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki mukhtalif monetary policies ne carry trade unwinds ko barhawa diya aur yen ki demand ko mazid boost kiya. BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne central bank ki ye commitment dohrayi ke jab tak Japanese economy uske fiscal 2025 ke forecasts ko pura kar rahi hai, bank shu’mar barhata rahega. US dollar (USD) mazid kamzor raha jab ke US Treasury yields ne CPI data ke jari hone se pehle girawat jari rakhi. CPI data Fed ke September rate cut ki gehrai ke hawalay se zaroori insights faraham karega. Haal hi ke US labor market reports ne bhi Fed ke bade rate cut ke imkaan ko shak mein daal diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ne ye dikhaya ke market poori tarah se expect kar raha hai ke Fed September meeting mein shu’mar ko kam az kam 25 basis points tak kaatega, magar 50 basis points cut ke chances thode kam ho gaye hain.

USD/JPY Qeemat Ki Projection
Hamara guftagu USD/JPY karansi pair ke mojooda qeemat ke rawaiye par ho rahi hai, jise hum dekh rahe hain. USD/JPY pair ne 142.29 par apna din band kiya. H4 technical chart par, Envelopes indicator qeemat mein kami ka ishara de raha hai, jab ke Momentum indicator selling ka moqa dikhata hai. MACD bhi negative zone mein hai, jo is baat ko mazid barhawa deta hai ke qeemat neeche ja sakti hai, aur 140.01 tak pohchne ka imkaan hai. Magar mera irada ye hai ke main unchi qeemat par sell karoon, ideally 147.01 ke qareeb, jahan mein qeemat mein izafa ki umeed karta hoon. Mera mansuba yeh hai ke qeemat ko oopar chadne ka intezar karoon, sellers ke stop-losses collect karoon, aur phir qeemat neeche giray. Bullish outlook abhi bhi stable hai, lekin yeh sab speculative hai aur asal natija market tay karega.

USD/JPY pair ne apne nuqsanat ko dosray din bhi barqarar rakha, aur Wednesday ke Asian session ke doran qeemat 141.20 ke qareeb thi. Yeh neeche ki taraf harakat zyada tar us wajah se thi ke Japanese yen (JPY) mazid taqatwar ho gaya, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governing Council ke rukun Junko Nagakawa ke hawkish comments ke baad. BoJ apni monetary easing ko adjust kar sakta hai agar iqtisadi aur qeemati trends uske expectatons ke mutabiq rahein. July mein shu’mar barhane ke bawajood, asal shu’mar negative rahe, jo yeh dikhata hai ke monetary conditions ab bhi soft hain. BoJ aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki mukhtalif monetary policies ne carry trade unwinds ko barhawa diya aur yen ki demand ko mazid boost kiya. BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne central bank ki ye commitment dohrayi ke jab tak Japanese economy uske fiscal 2025 ke forecasts ko pura kar rahi hai, bank shu’mar barhata rahega. US dollar (USD) mazid kamzor raha jab ke US Treasury yields ne CPI data ke jari hone se pehle girawat jari rakhi. CPI data Fed ke September rate cut ki gehrai ke hawalay se zaroori insights faraham karega. Haal hi ke US labor market reports ne bhi Fed ke bade rate cut ke imkaan ko shak mein daal diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ne ye dikhaya ke market poori tarah se expect kar raha hai ke Fed September meeting mein shu’mar ko kam az kam 25 basis points tak kaatega, magar 50 basis points cut ke chances thode kam ho gaye hain.

Aapka din acha guzray!

Mujhe lagta hai ke USD/JPY currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaat ke bare mein koi shak ab nahi reh gaya, kyunki September meeting ke natayej ke baad US Federal Reserve ne interest rate ko 50 basis points se kam kar diya hai. Is se Bank of Japan aur Federal Reserve ke darmiyan interest rates ka farq aur bhi kam ho gaya hai.

Is wajah se, Japanese Yen ki mazid taqat milne ki umeed hai, ek achi bullish correction ke baad, jisme buyers ne 143 figure ke darmiyan ka test kiya. Lekin, main yeh keh sakta hoon ke dollar ka girna chand lamho ke liye nahi hoga, kyunki abhi bhi US ke kuch economic indicators iska recovery dikhate hain aur recession ka khatra ab tak nikal gaya hai.

Isliye, USD/JPY pair zaroor girega, lekin yeh ghatna itni tezi se nahi hoga jitna kuch log samajhte hain. Nearest targets jo bears ke liye hain, woh 142.00 ke round level ka retest karna hai, aur phir dheere dheere 140.40 ke support ki taraf girna hai, jo 4-hour chart par TMA trend indicator bands ke lower boundary se neeche break hone par hoga.

Lambi muddat mein, downward impulse ko tez hone nahi dena chahiye, lekin US dollar ka kamzor hona 139.00 ke level ki taraf jari reh sakta hai. Yeh sab kuch mil kar market ke haalati rukh ko dikhata hai, jo ke short-term mein yen ki taqat aur dollar ki kamzori ko darshata hai.

Mujhe lagta hai ke traders ko yeh dekhna hoga ke kaise market in changes ko react karega, aur yeh bhi dekhna zaroori hai ke jab tak dollar ki recovery ke signs nahi milte, tab tak yeh trend chal raha hai. Agar market yeh samjhta hai ke dollar ki value aur kam hoga, toh yeh USD/JPY ke liye ek naya rukh de sakta hai.

Har haal mein, traders ko apne strategies par nazar rakhni chahiye aur in trends ko samajhne ki koshish karni chahiye, kyunki market mein kabhi bhi tabdeeliyan ho sakti hain. Agar aapko long-term positions leni hain, toh yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke market ka rukh kaise badalta hai, aur apne entry points ko behtar tarike se tay karna hoga.

wajahain hain jis ki wajah se USD/JPY ka price apne low point se decline hua aur aik din mein kuch apni favorable aspects kho diye. Wednesday ki Asian session ke dauran yeh pair strong tha, lekin phir 142.00 mark se neeche close hua. Jab traders ko aggressive bets place karni thi central bank tournament risks ke hawale se, toh essential context ne yeh indicate kiya ke spot cost ke liye downward momentum ka rujhan zyada hai.
Federal Reserve ka do din ka meeting Wednesday ko khatam hona tha, jisme unka faisla announce kiya gaya, aur umeed thi ke woh apna coverage easing cycle start karein ge. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka coverage shift Friday ko expected tha, jo market ke liye bohot interest ka moqa tha kyun ke iska direct asar Japanese yen (JPY) par hota aur USD/JPY pair ko ek significant upward move milta.Yeh cheez Tuesday ke unexpectedly strong US retail sales record ko overshadow karti, jo ke dollar ko apne 2024 lows se recover hone nahi de rahi thi. Lekin ek din mein hi US dollar ne apne intraday low 140.32 se rebound karte hue 142.44 tak pohanch gaya, jo yen ke muqablay mein ek strong increase tha. US ki strong economic facts ki wajah se investors ko Federal Reserve ke price reductions ke hawale se concerns thi, jis ki wajah se woh central bank ke economic policy decisions par focus kar rahe thay. Is ki wajah se dollar short sellers ne apni holdings ko reduce kar diya, jo USD/JPY pair ke liye aik negative move samjhi gayi.

Halaankeh USD/JPY ne 180 points se zyada ka faasla tay karte hue turning point 142.35 ko test kiya, yeh pair ab bhi downward bias show kar raha hai. Agar USD/JPY September 12 ko apne daily high 143.04 se upar break kar jaye, toh important resistance levels, Kijun-Sen at 144.48 aur Senkou Span A at 143.15 expose ho sakti hain. Lekin agar yeh 142.00 se neeche girta hai, toh yeh downtrend ko aur bhi worse kar dega. Is waqt ka yearly low 139.58 ek key support level serve karega, aur 139.00 ka level ek strong support zone ho sakta hai.

aur aik din mein kuch apni favorable aspects kho diye. Wednesday ki Asian session ke dauran yeh pair strong tha, lekin phir 142.00 mark se neeche close hua. Jab traders ko aggressive bets place karni thi central bank tournament risks ke hawale se, toh essential context ne yeh indicate kiya ke spot cost ke liye downward momentum ka rujhan zyada hai.
Federal Reserve ka do din ka meeting Wednesday ko khatam hona tha, jisme unka faisla announce kiya gaya, aur umeed thi ke woh apna coverage easing cycle start karein ge. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka coverage shift Friday ko expected tha, jo market ke liye bohot interest ka moqa tha kyun ke iska direct asar Japanese yen (JPY) par hota aur USD/JPY pair ko ek significant upward move milta.Yeh cheez Tuesday ke unexpectedly strong US retail sales record ko overshadow karti, jo ke dollar ko apne 2024 lows se recover hone nahi de rahi thi. Lekin ek din mein hi US dollar ne apne intraday low 140.32 se rebound karte hue 142.44 tak pohanch gaya, jo yen ke muqablay mein ek strong increase tha. US ki strong economic facts ki wajah se investors ko Federal Reserve ke price reductions ke hawale se concerns thi, jis ki wajah se woh central bank ke economic policy decisions par focus kar rahe thay. Is ki wajah se dollar short sellers ne apni holdings ko reduce kar diya, jo USD/JPY pair ke liye aik negative move samjhi gayi.

Halaankeh USD/JPY ne 180 points se zyada ka faasla tay karte hue turning point 142.35 ko test kiya, yeh pair ab bhi downward bias show kar raha hai. Agar USD/JPY September 12 ko apne daily high 143.04 se upar break kar jaye, toh important resistance levels, Kijun-Sen at 144.48 aur Senkou Span A at 143.15 expose ho sakti hain. Lekin agar yeh 142.00 se neeche girta hai, toh yeh downtrend ko aur bhi worse kar dega. Is waqt ka yearly low 139.58 ek key support level serve karega, aur 139.00 ka level ek strong support

USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ke live imtihaan par markooz hai. Price action method aur "bearish engulfing" pattern ke mutabiq jo natija umeed thi, woh poori tarah se mumkin nahi lag rahi. Is model mein proportion kaafi ahem hai. Humain ek bearish Doji ka signal mila hai, jo maine chart mein highlight kiya. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke dono apne targets aglay haftay poora karen ge. Pehli surat mein, maine 101 points ki girawat ki tawaqo ki thi baghair spread ke, lekin ab bhi mujhe lagta hai ke yeh trading instrument aur neeche ja sakta hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ke mutabiq, main expect kar raha hoon ke price 100th level 142.04 se neeche break karega, aur yeh scenario step by step karke 138.1 pe 141.39 aur 161.7 pe 140.82 tak poora ho sakta hai. Agar channel ki upper boundary ki taraf growth hoti hai, toh yeh mufeed hoga, lekin main apni position tab adjust karoon ga jab upar ki taraf ek tez move ho jaye. 143.56 pe price test tab hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se neeche ki taraf move kar raha tha, jo selling ke liye ek sahi entry point ko confirm karta hai, jo hum recent months mein downward trend ke tor par dekh rahay hain. Natija yeh hua ke pair mein 60 se zyada pips ki girawat hui. Rebound par 142.90 ke price par purchases ne expected result nahi diya. Kal, Japan ke GDP growth ke kamzor numbers aur bank lending ke volume mein kami ke hawalay se yen ki position par asar hua, jis se pair mein thodi si recovery hui. Magar din ke dosray hissay mein pressure wapas aa gaya, jo yeh darsha raha tha ke kuch log dollar ko zyada behtareen aur munasib prices pe sell karna chahtay hain. Aaj ka report, jo Japan mein money supply aggregate ki change ka tha, pair ko horizontal channel mein rakha hua hai, jis se is baat ka imkaan barh gaya hai ke pair medium-term downward trend mein aur neeche ja sakta hai. Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada reliance karoon ga scenario no. 1 aur 2 ke implementation par. **Buy Signal Scenario No. 1**: Main USD/JPY ko aaj tab khareedne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price 143.45 ke entry point par pohnche ga (green line chart pe), aur mera target 144.01 (chart pe thick green line) ho ga. 144.01 par main apne long positions ko exit karoon ga aur opposite direction mein shorts open karoon ga (expect kar raha hoon ke level se 30-35 pips ka move opposite direction mein hoga). Aaj pair mein ek correction ke tor par izafa dekha ja sakta ha

USD/JPY H1 time frame ka technical analysis kay mutabiq, main samajhta hoon ke abhi market mein sell ka irada lena munasib hoga. Ab main yeh kyun samajhta hoon ke short trading zaroori hai? Mere kuch bunyadi points hain Price MA200 moving average ke neeche hai, jo ke ek bearish trend ka ishara hai.Guzishta trading day ke doosray hissay mein yeh currency pair opening line ke neeche trade karta raha, aur din ka closing price bhi opening line se neeche tha.
Aaj ka price quotation neeche wali Bollinger Band ko cross kar ke south ja raha hai, jo ke southern sentiment ko emphasize karta hai aur yeh currency pair zyada giraawat ki taraf ja sakta hai.Jab main trade karta hoon to main hamesha RSI indicator par khaas tawajjo deta hoon. Agar yeh overbought period (70 se zyada) ya oversold period (30 se neeche) dikhaaye, to trade nahi karta. Filhal RSI sell-off ke khilaf nahi hai, kyun ke iska value favorable territory mein hai.Main apna take profit Fibonacci level 211% par set karta hoon, jo ke price value 138.100 kay mutabiq hai. Uske baad main apni position ko breakeven point tak move kar ke agay kay Fibonacci lows ko track karoonga.

USD/JPY ne Thursday ko Asian trade mein 144.00 se gira kar thoda upar 143.00 par aaya. Yeh pair apne gains ko dobara resume kar raha hai, jab ke risk sentiment barh raha hai aur dollar ka recovery process slow ho raha hai Federal Reserve ke decision ki wajah se. Agla focus U.S. ke data aur Friday ko Bank of Japan ke decision par hoga. USD/JPY Thursday ko takreeban 143.00 par trade ho raha tha.Daily chart yeh dikha raha hai ke yeh pair aik descending channel ke andar merge ho raha hai, jo ke bearish outlook ko support karta hai. Lekin, 14-day relative strength index (RSI) 50 ke kareeb ja raha hai, aur price 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) se upar chala gaya hai, jo ek upward correction ka ishara hai.

Downside par, USD/JPY pehli dafa resistance 21-day moving average par 143.73 pe encounter karega, aur phir upper boundary of the downward channel ke kareeb 145.00 pe resistance milegi. Support ke tor par, USD/JPY ko immediate support 139.58 par milega, jo June 2023 ke baad ka sab se neecha level hai, aur phir descending channel ke bottom par 137.75 ka support milega. Main barh kar apne targets tak pohanchne ka intezaar kar raha hoon. Sab ko successful trading ki dua deta hoon.

USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat ki umeed nahi ki ja sakti. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke woh yen ki qeemat mein tezi se utar chadhav par mudakhlat kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar yeh ziyada mazboot ho jaye. Is liye, 129 ka target haqeeqat par mabni nahi lagta, kyun ke Bank of Japan 139 ke aas-paas mudakhlat kar sakta hai aur apni currency ko kamzor karne ke liye bazaar mein yen ki badi sikta inject kar sakta hai USD/JPY pair par asar fall Natija ye hai ke buying strength kam ho gayi hai

Mujhay lagta hai ke diversity buri cheez nahi hai, lekin abhi tak mere paas itna paisa nahi hai ke mai alag alag jagahon par invest kar sakoon. Jab tak pound aur yen ka muqabla hai, yeh kehna mushkil hai ke kaunsa instrument behtar hai, kyun ke har trader ki apni pasand hoti hai. Aur jab mai news indicators par focus nahi karta, toh yeh masla mere liye ziata ahemiyat nahi rakhta. Mai sirf chart par dekhta hoon aur wahan jo nazar aata hai, us par kaam karta hoon. Mera tareeqa sirf technical analysis par mabni hai, economic news ko main zyada ahmiyat nahi deta. Bus news release ka waqt yaad rakhta hoon. Maine yeh dekha hai ke kisi bhi news ka price direction par koi khas asar nahi hota jab news release hoti hai. USD/JPY ke hawalay se, jab se Bank of Japan ne rate hikes ka aaghaz kiya hai, ek medium-term downward trend ban sakta hai jisse paisa kamaya ja sakta hai. Agar price 149-150 tak barh jaye, toh mai sell karna shuru karunga. Halaanke abhi ek minimal correction hai, lekin technically yeh pair mazeed strong growth dekhna chahiye. Aise trend breakouts ka matlab hota hai ke mazid growth ki umeed hai, lekin filhal mujhe buy karne ka koi dil nahi hai. Technical Perspective se: USD/JPY pair is waqt 144.73 ke qareeb resistance ka samna kar rahi hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke price ko mazeed aage barhne mein mushkilat ho rahi hai. Agar hum daily chart ka jaiza lein, toh pair ek bearish outlook dikhata hai, jahan technical indicators ek possible decline ki taraf ishara karte hain. Haal hi mein bearish sentiment ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne apni position gain ki, aur 144.57 par close hui, jo 143.67 se barh kar 145.04 tak gayi thi. Yeh price action yeh dikhata hai ke pair abhi bhi kuch resilience dikha raha hai, halaanke bearish indicators hain. Traders ko umeed hai ke aaj USD/JPY 143.80 se 145.20 ke range mein trade karegi, jab ke ek ahem resistance level 145.70 par hai. Agar yeh resistance level barkarar rahta hai, toh pair ke liye mazeed barhna mushkil hoga. Technical setup yeh dikhata hai ke pair pichlay kuch dino mein koi significant decline nahi dikha saki, jo yeh imply karta hai ke bearish momentum ko market ke halat offset kar sakte hain. Ongoing resistance aur expected trading range yeh highlight karte hain ke market is waqt uncertain hai, aur traders ko resistance levels aur price movements ko ghair-mamooli ehtiyaat se dekhna hoga. Technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke bearish sentiment toh hai, lekin pair ka resistance levels ke qareeb apni jagah bana kar rakhna complex market environment ko dikhata hai, jo ainday ke